The 2021 NBA draft has come and gone but the draft cycle still continues for a bit longer as the undrafted free agents find their new homes.
The 2021 NBA draft has come and gone but the draft cycle still continues for a bit longer as the undrafted free agents find their new homes.
While the following prospects didn’t get to hear their name called by the commissioner or deputy commissioner on Thursday night, they can find solace in the fact that their path to the pros is far from over. It’s not unheard of for an undrafted free agent to carve out a role for themselves in the NBA.
Some notable names, including Gonzaga’s Joel Ayayi and G League Ignite’s Daishen Nix, will join the fraternity of undrafted basketball players who hope to still make a name for themselves in the NBA.
Here is where the best remaining prospects have landed so far, according to reports:
Who owns the most real estate on Davion Mitchell Island? Who is buying stock in Sharife Cooper?
Everyone loves Cade Cunningham. It’s not a hot take for an analyst to say that Cunningham is their favorite player in the class. That’s not particularly interesting to read, either.
But what is fascinating, however, is when an analyst deviates from the norm and ranks someone significantly higher than where the prospect falls in other rankings. What does that tell us about their individual scouting process and what they value? Further, what does that tell us about the potential draftee?
Some folks call it “buying stock” in a player. Others, like ESPN’s Zach Lowe or The Ringer’s Bill Simmons, call it owning real estate on a player’s island. I like to refer to it as a “draft crush” when I wind up higher than consensus in my evaluation of a player.
My process is ridiculously tedious but the results can be fairly useful. I’ve tracked the evolution of more than sixty unique mock drafts, big boards and draft models from trusted analysts and popular accounts on Twitter.
Each placement is assigned a value based on Kevin Pelton’s draft pick trade value chart. I do this because, as Pelton notes, the difference in relative value between the No. 5 overall pick and the No. 7 overall is much more stark than, say, that of the No. 45 pick and the No. 47 pick.
After composing an aggregate score based on each ranking, I can see where each analyst strays from the pack.
I’ll leave the conclusions drawn from these results up to the reader. But if nothing else, this can eventually be used as a bragging point if one writer was higher than consensus on a draftee who eventually ends up outperforming his draft position.
The 2021 NBA draft is less than a week away and we finally have an idea of who is in — and who has withdrawn — from the class.
The 2021 NBA draft is less than a week away and we finally have an idea of who is in – and who has withdrawn – from the class.
In order to get a better sense of where all of the prospects stand as of right now, we compiled mock drafts from NBADraft.net, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report, Yahoo, The Athletic, The Ringer, Yahoo, NBA Big Board and USA TODAY Sports Media Group’s For The Win to see where the prospects rank at the moment.
Please note that these rankings reflect the composite score to get a feel for consensus, not our own opinion.
Since our previous update last month, some of the players with the most positive momentum include Quentin Grimes, Joe Wieskamp, Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Aaron Wiggins, Justin Champagnie, Jericho Sims, Jason Preston, Josh Primo, Neemias Queta, Trey Murphy and Bones Hyland.
Among players who ranked on our previous update who have since withdrawn from the draft include Roko Prkacin (32), Marcus Bagley (39), Terrence Shannon (48), Ariel Hukporti (50), Max Abmas (53), Johnny Juzang (54), Jordan Hall (66), Carlos Alocen (69) and Ochai Agbaji (75).
The most notable omissions who remain in this class but not these rankings are Yves Pons, Scottie Lewis, Jay Huff, Marcus Zegarowski, Aamir Simms, Dalano Banton, Matt Mitchell, Jose Alvarado, Carlik Jones, Derrick Alston Jr., Romeo Weems, Balsa Koprivica, Chaundee Brown, Isaiah Miller, Jordan Schakel and D.J. Carton.
Note that for the offensive roles, we borrowed a fun idea from Todd Whitehead (formerly of Nylon Calculus) with help from our friends at Bball-Index.com to create a slightly tweaked formula from the version they use.
The goal of that is not to explain how well a player scores but rather offer context for the way that he was used on his most recent team. This should help you predict how he might be used at the next level.
Meanwhile, you can learn the latest updates on every single prospect who has been included in recent mock drafts by scrolling below.
HoopsHype’s Alberto de Roa contributed research to this report
As the NBA’s 2020-21 regular season nears its close, the league’s next wave of talent is preparing to take the great leap to become pros.
As the NBA’s 2020-21 regular season nears its close, the league’s next wave of talent is preparing to take the great leap to become pros.
Players have until the end of this month, May 30, to apply for entry into the 2021 NBA draft. They will then have until July 19 to determine whether or not they plan to stay in this class or (unless they hired an agent who does not have NCAA certification) return to school.
This is obviously an incredibly difficult decision and as the majority of early entry candidates have made their intentions public, those who are testing the waters are already weighing their options.
Fortunately, the NBA’s Undergraduate Advisory Committee (UAC) exists to help answer some of those questions.
Reminder as NBA prospects ask for feedback on their draft stock, they're given a projected range from Advisory Committee: Lottery, 15-30, 31-45, 46-60, Undrafted.
Prospects get updated written feedback from execs after NBA combine prior to withdrawal date.
The advisory committee, which began in 1997, offers feedback to prospects on their potential draft stock. As many prospects are facing pivotal decisions about their future, this kind of intel is incredibly important.
Players like Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert and Baylor’s Jared Butler both went through this process last season, likely were not satisfied with the results and opted to return. Now, after tremendous efforts last season, both are projected first-rounders.
These decisions have tremendous financial implications for these individuals as well. For example, even if Kispert or Butler went with the last pick in the first round in 2020, they would have likely earned a contract worth around $5 million over three years. This year, even if they went outside of the lottery at at No. 15 overall, that would be around $8.5 million.
With that in mind, for the latest version of For The Win’s 2021 NBA draft big board, I’ve provided my evaluation for the top prospects expected to be in the pre-draft process. Players excluded from this exercise were likely because the reporting suggests that they are going back to school.
Note that these decisions were fully based on where I would have each player ranked, not a projection, although various conversations with scouts as well as other talent evaluators around the league have factored into my evaluation.
Which future NBA players will be playing during March Madness? Who have been the best players on the inaugural G League Ignite squad?
Which future NBA players will be playing during March Madness? Who have been the best players on the inaugural G League Ignite squad?
These are the kind of questions that many basketball fans are asking right now, especially if their favorite team is projected to have a lottery pick in the 2021 NBA draft.
Now that the NCAA tournament is on the horizon, and as the G League Ignite’s first year nears the end of the regular season, players have started separating themselves as potential top picks.
Since our last update back in December, these are the players who have improved the most: Kai Jones (Texas), Sharife Cooper (Auburn), Taevion Kinsey (Marshall), Moses Moody (Arkansas), Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga), Davion Mitchell (Baylor), Nah’shon Hyland (VCU) and Corey Kispert (Gonzaga).
Below are the full rankings based on the latest mock drafts from top analysts and experts.
HoopsHype’s Alberto de Roa contributed research to this report
While the college basketball season has been strange, we have a more clear idea of which top prospects are expected in the 2021 NBA draft.
While the college basketball season has been strange, we have a more clear idea of which top prospects are expected in the 2021 NBA draft.
Unfortunately, putting together a big board at this point in the year is an incomplete task. The inaugural NBA G League Ignite team, a new developmental team that plays exhibitions and is meant to serve as an alternative to college for some players, has not yet begun their season.
That makes it impossible to track development for top prospects like Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green as well as potential risers like Isaiah Todd and Daishen Nix.
While there are some honorable mentions included for some fringe prospects, several names (e.g. Duke’s DJ Steward, UNC’s Caleb Love, Texas Tech’s Terrence Shannon, Miami’s Earl Timberlake) were omitted on account of projected returns to the NCAA. As of right now, however, it is still a great challenge to predict who will be in this class.
The key to this draft is fluidity and being willing to accept that things will change quickly. Players will have slumps and some may be slow to adapt to the new normal. Rankings now are hardly reflective of where they will be as we get closer to March Madness.
Note that any conversations with NBA scouts mentioned in the article were held under the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of their teams.
Now that the 2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball season is underway, we are getting a more clear picture of the top prospects in the upcoming class.
Now that the 2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball season is underway, we are getting a more clear picture of the top prospects in the upcoming class.
Former top recruits like Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley and Jalen Suggs have made a great first impression and have confirmed why many already feel they are going to be solid future professionals in the NBA.
Of course, considering the unusual nature of the college basketball season, some players are struggling a bit more than others. The performance on the court will likely stray closer to the mean with a larger sample size as the year continues.
We highlighted the prospects who have been the biggest risers since we published our last edition of this exercise.
College basketball standouts who have most drastically improved their draft stock through the early parts of the season include Keon Johnson (Tennessee), James Bouknight (UCONN), Jared Butler (Baylor), Corey Kispert (Gonzaga), Day’Ron Sharpe (UNC), Aaron Henry (Michigan State), Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois), Marcus Bagley (Arizona State), Moussa Cisse (Memphis), Charles Bassey (Western Kentucky), Jason Preston (Ohio) and Luka Garza (Iowa).
Below are the rankings based on the latest mock drafts from top analysts and experts:
HoopsHype’s Alberto de Roa contributed research to this report
NCAA prospects have until April 26 to declare early entry for 2020 NBA Draft. There are several notable prospects who could join this class.
NCAA prospects have until next week to declare early entry for 2020 NBA Draft. There are several notable prospects who could join this class.
Two freshmen (Precious Achiuwa and Jahmi’us Ramsey) are widely projected as first-round prospects. Meanwhile, three sophomores (Isaiah Joe, Aaron Henry and Joel Ayayi) typically appear on mock drafts.
Others who are likely Top-100 prospects: Romeo Weems, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Filip Petrusev, Joe Wieskamp, Corey Kispert, Terrence Shannon Omer Yurtseven, Yves Pons, AJ Lawson, Charles Bassey, Anton Watson and Miles McBride.
Below is a list reviewing all of the key players in college basketball who have yet to make a public decision about their NBA futures, even if it is simply just to test the waters so long as they already applied to receive feedback from the Undergraduate Advisory Committee before April 16.
Scouting and preparing for the upcoming 2020 NBA Draft is incredibly challenging due to circumstances surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.
Scouting and preparing for the upcoming 2020 NBA draft is incredibly challenging due to circumstances surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.
As always, we examine the mock drafts from the most trusted analysts to give us the best idea of a consensus for what the upcoming class will look like in June. The latest 2020 NBA mock drafts from experts at ESPN, CBS Sports, SI.com, Bleacher Report, NBADraft.net, The Athletic, SB Nation, Sporting News and USA Today Sports Media Group’s Rookie Wire were used for these rankings.
Currently, the first three players expected to be selected (Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman) have remained in the exact same order for the third aggregate mock draft in a row.
After dropping from No. 5 all the way to No. 11 between December and January, Maccabi Tel Aviv forward Deni Avdija has jumped back to No. 4 for this version.
He played well recently at the 2020 Eurobasket Qualifiers, scoring 21 points with eight rebounds, two assists, one block and one steal while also shooting 3-for-6 from beyond the arc. This was a welcome change of pace for scouts hoping to learn as much as possible about Avdija as he had averaged just 4.0 points in 14.3 minutes in Euroleague games earlier this season.
Several other prospects playing overseas have seen their stock increase as well. This makes some sense considering many in the NCAA rely on their performance in March Madness to solidify their draft position whereas the international players gain momentum in other ways.
Killian Hayes, who was ranked No. 18 overall on our last aggregate mock draft, jumped up to No. 8 for this edition. The 6-foot-5 guard was 14-for-61 (39 percent) from 3-point range while also connecting on 90.9 percent of his free-throw attempts during Eurocup action. Several outlets are currently projecting him as a Top 5 pick in the 2020 NBA draft.
Another prospect playing outside of the United States but currently making waves is Leandro Bolmaro. He debuted on our aggregate mock draft in the most recent edition before this one but has jumped all the way to No. 29 this time around.
Meanwhile, in the NCAA, some college basketball players managed to make some serious momentum for themselves before the season was unexpectedly cut short. Some of those players are seniors Killian Tillie (Gonzaga), Grant Riller (Charleston), Udoka Azubuike (Kansas) and Desmond Bane (TCU).
As mentioned here, it makes sense for upperclassmen to be more appealing in this class than in previous years. Seniors have far more game film to draw film which may be necessary considering individual team workouts and even the 2020 NBA Draft Combine may be canceled. Plus, older players are likely more ready to contribute immediately.
I wrote about the top 25 NCAA basketball seniors based on their draft stock:
On the flip side, there are freshmen around the country who have seen their draft stock drastically decline in recent months.
Oregon’s N’Faly Dante has fallen off our boards completely after playing just twelve games and making no appearances in the starting lineup. Kahlil Whitney, who was considered a lottery pick when we did this exercise in October 2019, also dropped off after withdrawing from Kentucky.
Some other freshmen who saw their draft stock fall: Duke’s Matthew Hurt was ranked No. 16 overall back in October but is now at No. 76 overall. LSU’s Trendon Watford was ranked No. 14 in October but has fallen to No. 63. Florida’s Scottie Lewis was No. 9 in July and is currently No. 53 overall.
Matthew Hurt came into this year looking to fill @DukeMBB’s shooting void and, although the Minnesota native shot well, his inconsistency plagued him at times:https://t.co/OJnH743xDe
Less drastic but still valid: Arizona’s Nico Mannion has fallen from No. 6 back in January 2020 all the way to No. 16 now in April. Likewise, UNC’s Cole Anthony dropped from No. 2 back in July 2019 to No. 10 in our new study.
But some encouraging news for prospects who were considered Top-25 recruits coming out of high school but had a disappointing freshman year (e.g. Duke’s Wendell Moore as well as the aforementioned Dante, Whitney, Watford, Hurt and Lewis) can be found in Kentucky’s Immanuel Quickley.
The 6-foot-3 guard was the No. 13 overall recruit in the nation coming into Kentucky as a freshman. But after averaging just 5.2 points as a freshman, he returned for his sophomore campaign.
Fortunately, the SEC Player of the Year dramatically improved his draft stock in 2019-20. His season was highlighted by 21.3 points per game in February and a free throw percentage (92.3%) that ranked as the sixth-best among all underclassmen. This month, he debuted on our aggregate mock draft at No. 42 overall.
HoopsHype’s Alberto de Roa contributed research to this report.
After over a month of the college basketball season, we are starting to get a better picture of what the 2020 NBA Draft will look like.
After over a month of the college basketball season, we are starting to get a better picture of what the 2020 NBA draft will look like.
For example, Georgia Bulldogs freshman Anthony Edwards is beginning to separate himself as a near-consensus No. 1 overall pick. On the other side of the coin, though, several of the projected top selections (LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman, Cole Anthony and RJ Hampton) will miss extended time due to either injury or suspension.
In order to get a better read of the bigger picture, we collected opinions from the top experts and analysts that cover the draft. The latest 2020 NBA mock drafts from ESPN, CBS Sports, SI.com, Bleacher Report, NBADraft.net, The Athletic as well as USA Today Sports Media Group’s Rookie Wire were used for these rankings.
Cassius Winston, Aaron Henry, Xavier Tillman in top-45 of The Athletic's NBA Draft Big Board https://t.co/LFrVsMcvZD
One of the most interesting takeaways is that the Michigan State Spartans have three players (Cassius Winston, Aaron Henry and Xavier Tillman) all trending up.
After making the Final Four in last year’s March Madness, the program was expected to take another leap forward for their 2019-20 campaign.
Despite three losses in their first 10 games, the Spartans still rank No. 15 overall this season. This can be attributed to the fact Michigan State currently has the third-best offense in college basketball, per KenPom.com.
They also have three of the most improved players since our last aggregate mock draft. The full list, and more on each of the MSU players moving up draft boards, is included below.
Since our last AMD, this has moved up 17 spots in our rankings.
Despite already being 21 years old, the 6-foot-1 guard currently has a first-round grade from ESPN as well as Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports.
Winston has been one of the best distributors since he began at MSU. 67.1 percent of all field goals for the Spartans have been assisted, which is the sixth-most among all teams so far this season. His career assist rate (44.1 percent) ranks No. 1 overall among all college players who have played at least 50 games since 2009-10, via Sports-Reference.
With 7 assists today vs Rutgers, Cassius Winston now has the 2nd-most career assists (770) in Big Ten History, passing Illinois’ Bruce Douglas.
Winston is now just 46 assists behind Mateen Cleaves for the conference career record (816). pic.twitter.com/BLzMQGjpzx
During his freshman season, he had the second-best assist rate (46.7 percent) in the NCAA. Then as a sophomore, his assist rate (43.5 percent) trailed only Trae Young for the best in college basketball. Last season, his assist mark (44.8 percent) ranked third-best and behind only Ja Morant among all who played for teams that made the tournament.
But he has also shown strength as one of the more accurate shooters in the NCAA.
Winston was 75-for-151 (49.7 percent) from beyond the arc in 2017-18. That helped him join the exclusive 50-40-90 club for field-goal percentage, three-point percentage and free-throw percentage. Even as a sophomore then, the guard was one of the few to have a membership with at least two three-point attempts per game.
There is some enough NBA readiness to show he can contribute right away for a winning team.
Aaron Henry, Wing
AMD Rank: 33
Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Since our last AMD, this has moved up 26 spots in our rankings.
Henry was of the players who helped himself the most during the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Then a freshman, he put up 20 points with 6 rebounds and 6 assists during a victory over LSU.
While he has not yet taken the leap some expected as a sophomore, draft experts still have confidence in him as a prospect. His highest ranking right now comes from Jonathan Wasserman, who has him at No. 28 overall (via Bleacher Report):
“The eye test on Henry looks more convincing than the numbers. He isn’t a high-level creator, which limits him in Michigan State’s offense. But the 6’6″ guard is hitting open shots, capitalizing on driving lanes and making impact defensive plays. This late, teams will overlook Henry’s production for his fit.”
Perhaps the best news for the wing is that there is room for improvement. However, there have also been moments that show what Henry is capable of accomplishing at the next level.
This season, for example, the sophomore has been one of the most effective shooters off the catch. He is averaging 1.78 points per possession on catch-and-shoot attempts in a set offense, per Synergy Sports, which ranks in the 98th percentile.
Henry is also shooting 72.7 percent at the rim, which is an especially solid rate for a wing. Overall, he looks like someone capable of being a 3-and-D player in an NBA rotation.
Xavier Tillman, Big
AMD Rank: 50
Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Since our last AMD, this has moved up 13 spots in our rankings.
Michigan State has always been a team that plays better with Tillman on the court. Last season, for example, the big actually had the third-best box plus-minus in the NCAA — trailing only Zion Williamson and Brandon Clarke.
Jeremy Woo recently helped contextualize what professional teams may like about the 6-foot-8 junior (via SI.com):
“Tillman specializes in doing the dirty work and has been a largely unheralded yet invaluable piece of the Spartans’ success dating back to last season. He’s not particularly tall for a center but has a chance to be a quality rotational big in the pros with what he adds defensively and on the glass. Tillman has worked on extending his shooting range, and if he ends up being able to shoot the three, he’ll have a fairly strong window of opportunity as a role player. A lot of the things he does as a screener and defender don’t show up in the box score, and while he’ll never be more than a fourth or fifth offensive option, he might be able to thrive in that capacity.”
His best trait so far this season has been his ability to cut to the basket. He is shooting 15-for-17 (88.2 percent) on these attempts, per Synergy.
But he has also added value on the offensive glass and as a rim protector for Michigan State. His willingness and ability to make the most of time on the floor makes him a draftable professional prospect.
