Category: Speculation

Dennis Allen shoots down report about Saints’ Michael Penix Jr. trade talks

Dennis Allen shot down a report about Saints’ Michael Penix Jr. trade talks: ‘It was never discussed that we would move up for a quarterback’

The Atlanta Falcons put themselves in the middle of controversy to kick off the 2024 NFL draft by picking Michael Penix Jr. just one month after they signed quarterback Kirk Cousins to a landmark free agent contract — and New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen wants it known that’s a landmine his team wasn’t about to step on.

Dueling reports have said the Saints were among teams looking to trade up into the top 10 picks, targeting Penix, while local outlets have said those conversations never happened. When asked whether they had explored that trade, as had been reported, Allen responded with a flat “No.”

“It was never discussed that we would move up for a quarterback,” Allen continued. “I think any time there’s a quarterback that you think has a chance to be your future quarterback, it’s always something that you’re going to consider. I had heard that report, it was brought to my attention (Thursday) night, but there was zero effort on our part to move up for a quarterback. There’s always discussions about trading up or trading back, but none of those were in an attempt to get a quarterback.”

Allen acknowledged that the quarterback is the most important position on the field, though he noted that the team is happy with the quarterbacks that they have. They didn’t feel a compulsion to chase another quarterback early in this draft, and they didn’t discuss any of this year’s prospects with the 14th pick. It’ll be Derek Carr starting with Jake Haener fighting off Nathan Peterman and Kellen Mond behind him this summer.

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Saints suggested as a good fit for Jets draft bust Zach Wilson

The New Orleans Saints were suggested as a good fit for New York Jets draft bust Zach Wilson. But they shouldn’t trade anything for him:

Where will Zach Wilson play football in 2024? The New York Jets draft bust has been given permission to look for a trade partner, but there haven’t been many takers. With other former first-round quarterbacks changing teams it feels like only a matter of time until Wilson ejects.

It just might be difficult for him to find a parachute first. Throwing 25 interceptions in 33 starts will do a lot to turn off suitors. Despite that, CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin argues that the New Orleans Saints could be interested in Wilson’s services, writing:

There isn’t exactly a strong market for a former top-three pick whose erratic quarterbacking resulted in multiple demotions, but at just 24 with dual-threat traits, Wilson could be a low-risk reclamation project for a contender. The return would almost certainly not exceed that which the Bears or Patriots got for Justin Fields and Mac Jones, respectively. But one thing’s for sure: The Jets have had their fill, with the aging but superior Aaron Rodgers once again back in the saddle.

There are some coaches on staff Wilson knows well like John Benton, the former Jets offensive line coach, and Wilson wouldn’t face as much pressure competing with Jake Haener to back up Derek Carr. He’d be more competitive in that role than Nathan Peterman will be.

But is it worth trading anything for him? Probably not. If the vision is for Haener to knock down whatever punching bag the Saints set in front of him, it makes more sense to sign a player like Peterman on a non-guaranteed minimum salary than to invest draft capital in Wilson (even if it’s nothing more than a late-round pick). And there’s the possibility of Wilson being released outright. If that comes to pass, then it’s worth seeing if Wilson is willing to match Peterman’s modest salary.

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Panthers cutting former Saints safety Vonn Bell

The new Panthers GM is cutting many of his predecessor’s free agent signings, including former Saints safety Vonn Bell. Would a reunion make sense?

The Carolina Panthers are releasing veteran safety Vonn Bell, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, who they just signed a year ago. Depending on whether or not the Panthers are designating Bell a post-June 1 cut, they’ll be paying $7.9 million to $9.8 million in dead money while Bell is playing elsewhere.

Could he return to the New Orleans Saints? Bell, who turned 29 in December, has developed into a well-rounded safety with better ball skills than he showed in his four years with the Saints. After intercepting just one pass (and breaking up 14 others) in his first 61 games, all in New Orleans, Bell has picked off opposing quarterbacks 6 times with 23 pass deflections in his last 61 games, all starts for the Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals.

Bell clearly knows the system Dennis Allen is running very well. He just had the misfortune of being stuck in Carolina during the middle of a regime change with new general manager Dan Morgan torching many of the contracts his predecessor handed out, including Bell’s. The Saints have to be looking for a replacement at free safety after deciding to release Marcus Maye, or at least competition for second-year pro Jordan Howden. Bell would fit the bill.

So this is something to watch in the days ahead. Bell is several years younger than Malcolm Jenkins was when he reunited with the Saints after a successful run on the Philadelphia Eagles, and he may still have something left in the tank. We’ll see if any interest materializes.

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Saints are likelier to extend Demario Davis’ contract than trade him

The Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora reports that the Saints are seeking to trade linebacker Demario Davis, but he’s likelier to sign an extension with New Orleans:

Could the New Orleans Saints trade Demario Davis? That’s what Jason La Canfora is reporting for the Washington Post, chalking it up to the team’s complicated salary cap situation.

“The Saints are pushing to find a trade partner for cornerback Marshon Lattimore and linebacker Demario Davis, two linchpins of their defense, according to people in the industry,” La Canfora wrote.

Davis currently has a salary cap hit north of $18.1 million, third-highest on the team, and trading him would only save about $4.9 million.  He’s the NFL’s oldest starting linebacker at 35 but he’s won four consecutive spots on the Associated Press’ All-Pro team, with back-to-back appearances at the Pro Bowl Games. He hasn’t slowed down yet.

If they’re so worried about the cap (and they aren’t; New Orleans’ reported moves have them in the red by just $10.9 million) the Saints would save almost twice as month money with a standard restructure: $8.09 million. And they’d still have Davis on the roster. He is entering the final year of his deal so there’s a risk of him leaving a lot of dead money behind next year by taking that route.

Which brings us to the possibility of an extension. Cutting a new deal with Davis would save even more money (around $8.6 million) by redoing his contract and spreading his already-guaranteed money out while insuring he’ll get to retire in black and gold. That’s the approach they took with Tyrann Mathieu (and Cameron Jordan last summer), and it makes sense to use the same mechanisms with Davis. He’s an important leader and playmaker on their defense.

You should never say never in the NFL, but the money alone makes trading Davis a bad idea for the Saints. Combine that with his contract status, his still-impressive level of play, and the options available to them and it’s tough to draw the same conclusions La Canfora came away with. The only certainty is that Davis can’t be playing for New Orleans this year as his contract is currently written. Whether it’s another restructure, extension, or something else, something’s got to give.

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Saints picked as a surprise team to trade into the 2024 draft’s top-10

Bleacher Report picked the Saints as a team who could trade up into the top-10, targeting a quarterback. Here’s two reasons that won’t happen:

Mickey Loomis is known for being aggressive, but could this be the year he goes for broke? The New Orleans Saints were listed as one of five surprise teams who could trade into the 2024 NFL draft’s top 10 picks by Bleacher Report’s Maurice Moton.

Why would they do that? Moton says it should a move for a quarterback to develop as Derek Carr’s replacement. New Orleans has been aggressive, but it’s doubtful they will be that aggressive. Restarting with a rookie quarterback would help the team avoid their annual salary cap gymnastics. Moton writes:

In all likelihood, Carr will get another opportunity to take the Saints to the playoffs, but New Orleans shouldn’t rule out a move into a top-10 spot for a quarterback with more potential. The Saints have the 14th overall pick, so they wouldn’t have to make a massive leap to get the third- or fourth-best signal-caller in the draft.

New Orleans can sit its rookie signal-caller for the 2024 campaign and then reassess its thoughts on Carr next offseason. In 2025, the club can opt to find a trade partner that appeals to Carr or cut him in a transition to an upstart signal-caller.

Sitting a rookie for a year would allow the Saints to grab their quarterback of the future while also keeping Carr as the starter this season. But there are two major issues with this theory for New Orleans. The Saints are committed to Carr, not stuck with him. Carr may not be the future at the position in three or four years, but Dennis Allen will give him every opportunity to earn that opportunity.

The other issue is the Saints aren’t necessarily in a position to trade up for a player who won’t impact their 2024 season. Allen could lose his job if the Saints are unsuccessful this season and again fall short of the playoffs. Their first-round pick should be spent on an immediate-impact player. If that quarterback can’t at least show promise as a rookie, Allen may never see the benefit of drafting them.

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The Saints would be fools to accept this Marshon Lattimore trade offer

The Saints would be fools to accept this Marshon Lattimore trade offer. Trading a great player requires great compensation:

Speculation is picking up on what the New Orleans Saints may do with cornerback Marshon Lattimore this offseason. It makes sense — the pro football world just gathered in Indianapolis for the NFL Scouting Combine and Lattimore’s unique contract restructure signaled to teams that he could be available in a trade. But what could the Saints get back from him?

In an otherwise very thorough, informative, and well-conceived analysis of the situation, Over The Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald missed the mark in suggesting what sort of compensation the Saints could hope for in trading Lattimore. When considering what New Orleans might get back, he suggested:

Probably not too much. Jalen Ramsey who was just one year older was traded for a 3rd round pick and a 3rd round tight end who never saw the field in two years. Lattimore is not considered as good as Ramsey and has a far more extensive injury history. Both cases are going to be seen as salary dumps which lessens the value. So you might be looking at something like a 5th round pick being the base compensation. The benefit for the Saints is because this would be a trade that happens post draft it may be easier to get conditions on availability and team success that could get it close to the Ramsey range. The Saints would probably want to get the trade done before the start of camp which would limit their liability in the event of Lattimore being injured in camp.

That would be a major disappointment for Saints fans, and arguably a fireable offense for general manager Mickey Loomis. Great players require great compensation, and a fifth rounder hardly matches that description. Fitzgerald is wrong to characterize this as a salary dump — the Saints aren’t open to trading Lattimore because he’s making too much money. They’re open to trading him because of a conflict with either head coach Dennis Allen or the team medical staff (or both), and the explicit consideration that Lattimore is one of the few assets the team could hope to trade and get back something worthwhile to help rebuild their roster.

And it’s inaccurate to suggest Lattimore is “not considered as good as Ramsey” because if Lattimore isn’t in that conversation, then who is? Even if Lattimore has missed 17 games to injuries over the last two years, he’s tied for the 17th-most interceptions (7) and 14th-most passes defensed (42) among cornerbacks since the 2020 season. Compare that to Ramsey’s 8 interceptions and 30 pass breakups in the same span, with Ramsey appearing in 11 more games. Obviously there’s more to the position than this but it’s disrespectful to Lattimore to undersell his performance like this.

Back to the Saints. It would be absurd for them to accept a fifth-round pick in exchange for Lattimore’s services. He’s worth so much more to the team than what any fifth-round rookie could hope to achieve. Since Jeff Ireland joined the scouting department back in 2015 the Saints have picked just one fifth rounder who spent his entire four-year contract with New Orleans; defensive tackle Tyeler Davison. Each of their other fifth-round picks has flopped, though it’s early for special teams linebacker D’Marco Jackson and second-year safety Jordan Howden.

Still. Unless the Saints are desperate to move Lattimore, and there’s no indication they are without him being granted permission to seek a trade (to say nothing of New Orleans not actively shopping him at this week’s combine), it’s going to take a good offer to pry him away. It has to. It would be unacceptable for Loomis to sell so low on one of the team’s most talented playerse.

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There’s a big misconception going around about Marshon Lattimore’s contract

There’s a big misconception going around about Marshon Lattimore’s contract. Any team that trades for him must pay him more than just his salary:

It’s important to remember that the NFL Scouting Combine isn’t just about the college prospects working out ahead of the 2024 draft; it’s also a mixer for personnel around the league to have dinner and drinks with players’ agents ahead of free agency, and for reporters to sit down with their contacts to gossip and source information.

Which is how we got this interesting nugget from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, who emptied his notebook after a week in Indianapolis steakhouses, pubs, and other informal meeting-places.

And, based off what he’s learned, there’s a fierce market developing for talented cornerbacks. Fowler lists the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins among the teams looking to move most aggressively in upgrading their depth charts. And the New Orleans Saints could be in their crosshairs.

“Several teams believe Saints corner Marshon Lattimore — whose base salary is a paltry $1.2 million due to a restructure — is also available via a trade,” Fowler wrote. But that’s misleading.

While it’s true that Lattimore’s base salary is set at the league minimum of $1.21 million, that isn’t the only cost an acquiring team would have to pay. He’s also due to receive a $13.79 million roster bonus which will trigger one week before the start of the regular season, giving everyone involved a deadline to work out a deal. He’s going to receive $15 million in compensation from whichever team he’s playing for in the fall.

So while that lower base salary could make him more appealing to other teams in casual trade talks in March, teams are going to look at the situation with more scrutiny when they get down to brass tacks in June (when it’ll be easier for the Saints to trade Lattimore, for accounting purposes). Trading Lattimore before June 1 would cost the Saints a staggering $31.2 million in dead money. Waiting until after that date lessens the blow with charges of $10.6 million and $20.6 million in dead money for 2024 and 2025, respectively.

It’s a complicated contract situation, to be sure. And the easiest path out of it is getting everyone in New Orleans back on the same page so Lattimore can continue making plays for the Saints for years to come. But there are going to be teams willing to acquire him even if they have to wait it out through free agency and the 2024 NFL draft. We’ll just have to wait and see whether their patience wears off or if cooler heads prevail in New Orleans.

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Bleacher Report has two more bad trade ideas for the Saints

Bleacher Report has two more bad trade ideas for the New Orleans Saints, suggesting they give up on key playmakers to save a little money:

It’s bad enough that Bleacher Report suggested the New Orleans Saints trade Alvin Kamara without correctly reporting the mechanisms that would let it happen — they’ve since circled back and put even more bad trade ideas on the table, arguing the Saints should trade away two key playmakers in order to save a little money.

What’s funny is these are marketed as “Dream Trade Scenarios” for the Saints. We’re guessing that leadership in New Orleans isn’t eager to part ways with Paulson Adebo and Taysom Hill, but here’s Kristopher Knox making the case anyway:

Bleacher Report suggests a laughable Alvin Kamara trade offer

Bleacher Report suggested a trade sending Alvin Kamara to the Ravens that’s, well, laughable. The Saints would be fools to accept this offer:

Oh, brother. Bleacher Report’s Alex Kay suggested a trade sending New Orleans Saints star running back Alvin Kamara to the Baltimore Ravens that’s, well, laughable. The Saints would be fools to accept this offer:

  • Baltimore gets: Alvin Kamara
  • New Orleans gets: 2024 seventh-round pick (No. 247 overall)

There’s an obvious problem here in the value being exchanged. Kamara may not be the same big-play threat he was earlier in his career, but the Saints are hoping he can turn things around with a new offensive coaching staff and system on top of another year working with Derek Carr, whose tendency to check down quickly after the snap led to a lot of targets going Kamara’s way. A seventh-round pick is ridiculous compensation for No. 41.

But let’s get to the other problem with Bleacher Report’s proposal. Saints fans are better acquainted with salary cap gymnastics than most, so see if you can spot the problem. Here’s what Kay had to say about this trade idea:

The 28-year-old back would be an an ideal buy-low candidate for the Ravens, who could try to capitalize on the Saints’ need to shed salary. The Saints project to be $82.8 million over next year’s cap, but they could save $11.8 million by trading Kamara after June 1.

While NFL teams are allowed to designate up to two releases as a post-June 1 cut each offseason for salary cap purposes, no rule exists for trades. The Saints would have to keep Kamara on their books with an $18.7 million cap hit through free agency in March and the 2024 NFL draft in April before trading Kamara in June to reap those cap benefits — meaning the Ravens would have already spent the seventh-round pick that Bleacher Report says Baltimore should trade to New Orleans, and the Saints would have had to get under the cap without touching Kamara’s contract.

If that’s a typo or some other oversight, then it means they see a 2025 seventh rounder as fair compensation for a five-time Pro Bowl running back, and that’s lubricious. The Saints are going to need to figure out something with Kamara’s contract this year. Whether that means another restructure, a reworking, a pay cut, or something else unknown, they can’t have him counting $18.7 million against the cap. But that doesn’t mean they should let another team take them to the cleaners and trade away a fan-favorite playmaker for so little in return.

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Saints should inquire about Brandon Aiyuk after social media posts

The price may be too high for Brandon Aiyuk. Maybe he’s not even on the table. Regardless, the Saints should inquire on his availability:

The marriage between Brandon Aiyuk and the San Francisco 49ers could be in a rough patch. Jauan Jennings has been viewed as a wide receiver who could follow now-Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak from San Francisco, but what about Aiyuk? Recent social media posts from people close to the fourth-year pro suggest he might have played his last game as a 49er. Aiyuk’s best friend and girlfriend both voiced complaints about his role in San Francisco’s offense and desire to join a new team.

To be abundantly clear, social media activity like this should be taken with a grain of salt. We’ve seen relatives and spouses vent frustrations and nothing come from it before. It’s often viewed by the public as them speaking out for the player, but that isn’t always the case. Loved ones get emotional about these games as well. Aiyuk didn’t help by being noncommittal to San Francisco after their Super Bowl loss.

Aiyuk is not a free agent and would require a trade. New Orleans doesn’t have a surplus of picks in the upcoming draft, but they should at least inquire on his availability. Aiyuk is coming off of a career season in which he was a second team All-Pro. He would provide a three level receiving threat who is a phenomenal downfield blocker. With Kubiak installing a new offense in New Orleans, adding a proven commodity with experience in the system like Aiyuk could pay big dividends.

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