The North Carolina Tar Heels (13-17, 6-13 in the ACC) visit their Atlantic Coast Conference rival, the Duke Blue Devils (24-6, 14-5 in the ACC), Saturday for a 6 p.m. ET tip-off at the Cameron Indoor Stadium. We analyze the North Carolina-Duke odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.
North Carolina at Duke: Three things you need to know
- North Carolina is playing its best basketball of the season. The Tar Heels are on a three-game winning streak (all against ACC competition) following a seven-game losing streak. Duke has been struggling lately losing two of its last three games.
- North Carolina lost a heartbreaker, 98-96, in the first game this season against Duke thanks to Wendell Moore Jr.’s buzzer-beating putback in overtime.
- Duke got revenge against North Carolina State in its previous game, 88-69 on March 2, after the Wolfpack upset the Blue Devils on NC State’s home floor.
North Carolina at Duke: Odds, betting lines and picks
Duke 78, North Carolina 70
North Carolina (+475) out-rebounded and shot better from the field than Duke -667 in their first meeting. The Tar Heels’ major flaw in that game was committing 18 turnovers to the Blue Devils’ 11. Both teams are stacked with well-recruited talent. The key matchups of Duke’s PG Tre Jones and C Vernon Carey Jr. versus North Carolina’s PG Cole Anthony and PF Garrison Brooks were essentially draws. It’s hard to fathom the Tar Heels scoring an upset in Duke after blowing a double-digit lead in their own home. We certainly aren’t spending the exorbitant Duke moneyline price. PASS ON THE MONEYLINE.
Against the Spread (ATS)
North Carolina +11.5 (-125) have covered five consecutive games, and six out of seven, against Duke -11.5 (+105). Plus Duke has been struggling lately losing two of its last three games and are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. The Tar Heels get up for tough teams on the road—they are 6-4 ATS versus winning teams. Also, Duke is 1-3 ATS when laying 10-12 points.
I LIKE NORTH CAROLINA +11.5 (-125).
The last North Carolina-Duke game went Over the projected total, snapping a six-game Under streak. I think Saturday’s game will go Under, but it’s only a slight LEAN toward UNDER 152.5 (-110). It’s only a lean though because Duke has a 21-9 Over/Under record on the season, and both the Tar Heels and Blue Devils went Over the projected total in five of their previous six games.
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