Can Emmanuel Sanders replace Michael Thomas as the Saints’ top receiver?

Without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a challenge in maintaning their passing game. Here’s how Emmanuel Sanders can help.

In 2019, New Orleans receiver Michael Thomas had by far the most targets in the league — 185 in the regular season, and eight more in the Saints’ wild-card loss to the Vikings. Thomas totaled 156 catches for 1,795 yards and nine touchdowns, and there’s no question that he’s one of the most prolific and gifted receivers in the game today. At 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds, Thomas isn’t just a good route-runner and a slant machine as some would have you believe — he is also a fine contested-catch receiver, and last season, per Pro Football Focus, he caught eight of the nine passes thrown to him of 20 or more air yards for 249 total yards.

Losing a receiver with Thomas’ skill set and target share can certainly be a problem. but that’s what the Saints face on Monday night as they get ready to take on the Raiders on Monday night. Thomas is out with an ankle injury which could put him out for several weeks. This places a heavy burden on new guy Emmanuel Sanders. The Saints signed Sanders to a two-year, $16 million contract with $10 million guaranteed this offseason in order to take a little bit off Thomas’ plate and give him more one-on-one opportunities.

Now, Sanders has to be the main man. Yes, the Saints have one of the league’s best receiving backs in Alvin Kamara, and tight end Jared Cook is always good for his share of big plays, but in a high-volume passing game like the one Sean Payton runs, there is a WR1, whether he fits the role or not.

Certainly, one of the reasons the Saints found Sanders to be an attractive option was what he did to their defense in Week 14 of the 2019 season. Then, Sanders caught seven passes on nine targets for 157 yards and a touchdown, and this was the touchdown.

It’s not often you see a receiver embarrass both safeties in a two-high shell, but here we are. Sanders is an astute route-runner, and he has more than enough acceleration to make things happen downfield. Last season for the 49ers, per Pro Football Focus, he was targeted on throws of 20 or more air yards 14 times, and he caught all five catchable passes for 216 yards and a touchdown.

In his Saints debut against the Buccaneers last Sunday, Sanders caught three passes for just 15 yards. Right now, he’s still trying to get the hang of an offense that rivals any other in the league in complexity.

“I think my comfort level is probably about an 85,” Sanders said on Saturday. “Obviously, I want it to be more but, not being able to go through OTAs and stuff like that. Obviously, I would be lying to you guys if I say, yeah, I am 100% comfortable. But I know, week by week, I am going to get more and more comfortable with the personnel, with the plays and everything. And so I am looking forward to this upcoming game to see if I can get that 85 to 90 and week by week, just like I said, just keep progressing. Because it is not an easy offense. It is an offense, that it’s a reason why they’re an explosive passing offense. Because you move around a lot, different splits, different personnels (groupings), it’s a lot of moving pieces. And so, it can definitely make your head spin. But, you know, I’m starting to grasp it more and more.”

In an offense like Payton’s, timing and rhythm are the orders of the day. As a receiver, you have to sync up with Drew Brees, understand all the routes as completely as possible, and time Brees’ throws — especially downfield. There’s an art to getting open when you understand your quarterback’s velocity.

Sanders’ first target as a Saint came in the second quarter, with the Bucs dropping into serious coverage on third-and-13. Sanders tried to run a similar route to the one he had confounded his new team with last season, but there wasn’t a ton of zip on the ball (a common issue with Brees these days), and through there was a 39-yard pass interference call on this play, you can also see that Sanders and Brees are still trying to figure out the combination of timing and location that make great quarterback/receiver combos… well, great. Sanders may have been expecting this ball to hit him before the deep safety converged. Or, this could have been the Saints fishing for the PI call they got.

Now, where Sanders doesn’t replicate Thomas’ skill set is as a contested-catch receiver — he’s more a guy you want to send to open areas of the field. Here, the Saints think they have the Buccaneers’ number by sending Sanders quickly across the field for a touchdown pass. Problem is, rookie safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (you can send in your Defensive Rookie of the Year ballots now, folks) gets in the way, and Sanders doesn’t have a lot of answers when defenders get in the way.

Not that the Saints’ don’t have other big-play options in Thomas’ absence — tight end Jared Cook might be Brees’ most prolific target on those 50/50 balls, and perhaps it’s time for third-year Tre’Quan Smith to step up. Per Sports Info Solutions, based on Sanders’ and Smith’s route profiles last season, there is some hope of replicating what Brees prefers on underneath routes.

(Sports Info Solutions)

There’s no question that Payton will have to draw it up differently without Thomas, though — there’s just no way to replace his and Brees’ most explosive and prolific receiver.