College Football Playoff: Top 20 Ranking Of Teams With A CFP Path

Ranking the top teams in the College Football Playoff chase. Here’s our ranking of the 20 with a chance, and what has to happen.

Going into the 2022 season, which teams have the most realistic shot of making the College Football Playoff? Here’s our ranking of the 20 teams with a path to the playoff and what has to happen for each.


CFN Predictions of Every Game
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
AAC | C-USA | Ind | MAC | M-West | Sun Belt
CFN Preview 2021: All 131 Teams
2022 Bowl Projections | Preseason Rankings 1-131
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It’s really hard to make the College Football Playoff.

Just winning your conference championship isn’t enough, and if you’re a Group of Five program, going undefeated doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything.

What have we learned since the start of the CFP experience in the 2014 season? You win your Power Five conference and finish with one loss, you’re a mortal lock to get in. You go 11-1 with that one loss to the eventual powerhouse conference champ, and you’ve got a shot.

You lose two games, and there’s a fun bowl game somewhere with a delightful array of goods, services, and prizes waiting before your glorified exhibition, but you’re not going to the show.

What’s the path to the College Football Playoff for all of the top contenders? Below are the key games that matter for each team that can reasonably dream about being among the top four, along with whether or not they’ll make it in.

Before diving in, some ground rules …

Again, one loss and a Power Five championship, or unbeaten and a Group of Five title. Outside of a few special circumstances – SEC Championship loser, Notre Dame – two losses ends the run.

Schedules mean almost everything. Take just about anyone in the SEC West and put it just about anywhere else but the Big Ten East, and it would be a contender to get into the CFP. Oklahoma’s path is a whole lot different than Texas A&M’s.

Getting into the College Football Playoff and winning it require two very, very, very different skill sets. A team might have the schedule and magical formula to be one of the top four, only to find a two-piece of Alabama reality waiting behind the door.

The consensus odds to win the College Football Playoff are listed, but the goal is to find the teams that can get there. Here’s our ranking from the least likely among the top realistic options to make the College Football Playoff to the most likely.

This isn’t based on how good the teams are. This is about who controls their destiny, what has to happen, and the pecking order of 20 teams with the most realistic chances, starting with …

20. Cincinnati

Odds To Win the College Football Playoff: +20000
Must Win Game: at Arkansas, Sept. 3
Landmine To Sidestep: at SMU, Oct. 22
Where It Could All Go Wrong: at UCF, Oct. 29

Bottom Line: The College Football Playoff repeat appearance dream could be over right away with a trip to Arkansas. However, win that, and it’s Game On. Going to SMU and UCF in late October is a bear, but everything else – including the home date against Indiana – is doable. One loss, though, and the CFP is out. There will likely be more than one loss.

Will Cincinnati Make the College Football Playoff? No. The Bearcats will be great, but they’re not recreating the 2021 magic.
UC Preview | Top 10 PlayersSchedule

19. Tennessee

Odds To Win the College Football Playoff: +10000
Must Win Game: at Georgia, Nov. 5
Landmine To Sidestep: at South Carolina, Nov. 19
Where It Could All Go Wrong: at Pitt, Sept. 10

Bottom Line: It’s a HEAVY lift, but if the Vols somehow go 11-1 and get into the SEC Championship, the respect given to the schedule might be enough to keep them in the playoff hunt even with another loss. They’ll be good, but at Pitt, Florida, at LSU, Alabama, at Georgia, Kentucky, at South Carolina … that’s too nasty.

Will Tennessee Make the College Football Playoff? No, but they’re going to screw up someone’s CFP hopes.
UT Preview | Top 10 PlayersSchedule Analysis

18. Florida

Odds To Win the College Football Playoff: +9020
Must Win Game: Georgia (in Jacksonville), Oct. 29
Landmine To Sidestep: South Carolina, Nov. 12
Where It Could All Go Wrong: Utah, Sept. 3

Bottom Line: Florida will be much, much better under new head coach Billy Napier, but it’s not beating Utah, and Kentucky, and LSU, and South Carolina, and getting by Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Florida State away from Gainesville. The College Football Playoff is too tough a goal, however, beat Georgia and the SEC East race gets interesting.

Will Florida Make the College Football Playoff? Ehhhhhhhh, Florida will be better than everyone thinks, but no. The schedule is too tough.
Florida Preview | Top 10 PlayersSchedule Analysis

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17. Penn State

Odds To Win the College Football Playoff: +9100
Must Win Game: Ohio State, Oct. 29
Landmine To Sidestep: Minnesota, Oct. 22
Where It Could All Go Wrong: at Purdue, Sept. 1

Bottom Line: Considering the Big Ten East is much tougher than the West, if the Nittany Lions can get by Auburn on the road early on and split the dates against Michigan and Ohio State, they’ll be favored in the Big Ten Championship. It’s all too daunting for an elite Penn State team, but this version doesn’t appear to be close to that. However, if Michigan could do it last year …

Will Penn State Make the College Football Playoff? No. The team isn’t strong enough to go 12-1 and win the Big Ten title.
Penn State Preview | Top 10 PlayersSchedule Analysis

16. LSU

Odds To Win the College Football Playoff: +7520
Must Win Game: Alabama, Nov. 5
Landmine To Sidestep: Tennessee, Oct. 8
Where It Could All Go Wrong: Mississippi State, Sept. 17

Bottom Line: Welcome to the SEC, Brian Kelly. Yeah, LSU might be able to stun Alabama if everything goes right, but can it go at least 12-1 with road games at Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M, and home dates against Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State? No, and all of that – and Alabama, too – comes with a season-opener against Florida State and whatever happens in the SEC Championship if everything goes right.

Will LSU Make the College Football Playoff? No. Kelly will have a good first year, and the team is good, but the schedule is too tough.
LSU Preview | Top 10 PlayersSchedule Analysis

NEXT: Top 15 College Football Playoff Chase Rankings

New Mexico State vs Abilene Christian Prediction, Game Preview: WAC Championship

New Mexico State vs Abilene Christian prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch, lines, and why each team might – or might not – win on Saturday in the WAC Championship.

New Mexico State vs Abilene Christian prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch: Saturday, March 12


New Mexico State vs Abilene Christian Game Preview, WAC Championship How To Watch

Date: Saturday, March 12
Game Time:10:00 pm ET
Venue: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
How To Watch: ESPNU
Record: New Mexico State (25-6), Abilene Christian (23-9)
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Michigan State vs Purdue Prediction, Game Preview: Big Ten Tournament

Michigan State vs Purdue prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch, lines, and why each team might – or might not – win on Saturday in the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan State vs Purdue prediction, college basketball game preview, how to watch: Saturday, March 12


Michigan State vs Purdue Game Preview, Big Ten Tournament How To Watch

Date: Saturday, March 12
Game Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
How To Watch: CBS
Record: Michigan State (22-11), Purdue (26-6)
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AP Top 25 College Football Poll, Rankings: 2021 Final

Where do all the top teams rank in the Final AP Top 25 college football poll? Which teams just missed out?

Where do all the top teams rank in the final 2021 AP Top 25 college football poll? Which teams just missed out, but received votes?


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2021 AP Top 25 College Football Poll: Final

Others Receiving Votes
Texas A&M 115, Wisconsin 97, Minnesota 47, Purdue 44, UTSA 9, Army 6, Fresno State 2, Coastal Carolina 2, Air Force 1, UAB 1

AP Poll : 2021 Season Final

Number in parentheses is where each team finished in the most recent rankings.    

25. San Diego State Aztecs 12-2 (NR)

24. Utah State Aggies 11-3 163 (NR)

23. Iowa Hawkeyes 10-4 171 (17)

22. Oregon Ducks 10-4 364 (15)

21. Arkansas Razorbacks 9-4 371 (22)

20. NC State Wolfpack 9-3 382 (18)

19. BYU Cougars 10-3 435 (14)

18. Kentucky Wildcats 10-3 446 (25)

17. Houston Cougars 12-2 513 (21)

16. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 13-1 517 (16)

15. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 11-3 533 (20)

14. Clemson Tigers 10-3 538 (19)

13. Pitt Panthers 11-3 741 (13)

12. Utah Utes 10-4 851 (10)

11. Ole Miss Rebels 10-3 926 (8)

Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY final rankings

10. Oklahoma Sooners 11-2 966 (14)

9. Michigan State Spartans 11-2 1026 (11)

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11-2 1039 (5)

7. Oklahoma State Cowboys 12-2 1177 (9)

6. Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 1247 (7)

5. Baylor Bears 12-2 1259 (7)

4. Cincinnati Bearcats 13-1 1349 (4)

3. Michigan Wolverines 12-2 1361 (2)

2. Alabama Crimson Tide 13-2 1464 (1)

1. Georgia Bulldogs 14-1 1525 (3)

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Coaches Poll College Football Rankings 
All-Time Coaches Poll Rankings | AP All-Time Rankings

FCS Championship North Dakota State vs Montana State Prediction, Game Preview

FCS Championship: North Dakota State vs Montana State prediction, game preview, how to watch, lines, and why each team might – or might not – win on Saturday.

FFCS Championship: North Dakota State vs Montana State prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, January 8


FCS Championship: North Dakota State vs Montana State How To Watch

Date: Saturday, January 8
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET
Venue: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
How To Watch: ESPN
Record: North Dakota State (13-1), Montana State (12-2)
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Today’s Best Bet to Lock in Now

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FCS Championship: North Dakota State vs Montana State Game Preview


Why Montana State Will Win

Montana State did the work for the North Dakota State, taking out a South Dakota State team that handed the Bison their only loss of the year.

The Bobcats got a massive day from QB Tommy Mellott in his amazing run through the FCS playoffs.

Starting quarterback Matt McKay entered the transfer portal just before the playoff started, Mellott stepped in and has been brilliant with four touchdown passes and no picks to go along with 339 rushing yards and six scores over the three games.

His job is to keep on running – and not turn the ball over.

The Montana State offense was among the best in the FCS in turnover margin helped by a fantastic offensive front that doesn’t allow much of anything in the backfield.

The formula is simple for the Bobcats. Don’t make mistakes – they don’t get penalized – rely on the defense, make tons of timely plays in the backfield, and capitalize on everything.

However …

College Football Expert Picks, National Championships

Why North Dakota State Will Win

North Dakota State can play that game, too.

Turnovers aren’t a problem for the Bison. There aren’t enough flags to get into a twist over, and the defense led the nation in points allowed throughout the FCS season.

The formula for North Dakota State is simple. Own third downs on both sides of the ball. Repeat.

The offense can put up points in bunches, but it’s the other side of the ball that should be able to take over. The D allowed over 24 points just once all year – the 27-19 loss to South Dakota State – and allowed 20 or fewer in 13 games.

The D has been on a dominant run in the FCS playoffs – allowing 24 points over the three games – and now it gets to focus on stopping Mellott, unless …

NFL Expert Picks, CFN Week 18

What’s Going To Happen

Can Montana State get healthy again?

It was able to get by South Dakota State without a few key parts, but the one guy it needs to have back is leading rusher Isaiah Ifanse – who ran for over 1,500 yards and ten scores, but missed the South Dakota State game.

The Bobcats have been able to find ways all year to push through bumps and bruises, and they got through the late-season quarterback change.

However, North Dakota State is too good defensively to let anyone in the Montana State backfield go off.

Mellott has been great, but he’s not going to be able to bomb away quite like he did against South Dakota State. He’ll be fine, though, and the defense will keep this game in range throughout.

North Dakota State will control things just a wee bit more.

FCS Championship: North Dakota State vs Montana State Prediction, Lines

North Dakota State 23, Montana State 17
Line: North Dakota State -7.5, o/u: 42.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 5

5: “Ray Donovan: The Movie”
1: “This Is Us: Season 6″

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College Football Playoff Expansion: How 12-Team Format Would’ve Worked This Year

How would an expanded 12-team College Football Playoff have worked this year?

The College Football Playoff rankings are out. How would they have worked in an expanded 12-team format?


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Unfortunately, the College Football Playoff expansion talks have stalled.

They really did come up with a good format idea.

12 teams. Top six conference champions automatically get in, top four conference champs get a bye, and then the seeds would follow from there with the higher-ranked seeds getting the home field advantage in the first round.

So it would be …

College Football Playoff Expansion Proposal Top Would Be …

These four would get first round byes

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (1)

2. Michigan Wolverines 12-1 (2)

3. Cincinnati Bearcats 13-0 (4)

4. Baylor Bears 11-2 (7)


College Football Playoff Expansion Proposal 5-12 Matchups Would Be …

12. Pitt Panthers 11-2 (12) at

5. Georgia Bulldogs 12-1 (3)

College Football Playoff Rankings: Final

11. Utah Utes 10-3 (11) at

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11-1 (5)

– Final Regular Season Rankings AP | Coaches

10. Michigan State Spartans 10-2 (10) at

7. Ohio State Buckeyes 10-2 (6)

CFN Rankings: 1-130 & by conference

9. Oklahoma State Cowboys 11-2 (5) at

8. Ole Miss Rebels 10-2 (8)

Who’d get sort of hosed? Who’d just miss out?

CFP 13. BYU Cougars 10-2

CFP 14. Oregon Ducks 10-3 (8)

CFP 16. Oklahoma Sooners 10-2 (12)

18. NC State Wolfpack 9-3 (18)

17. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 10-3 (16

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CFN Rankings: 1-130 & by conference
College Football Playoff Rankings: Final

College Football Playoff Rankings: Final Top 25

College Football Playoff rankings. The final 2021 top 25 along with the four teams off to the playoff.

The final College Football Playoff rankings for the 2021 season. The top 25 along with the four teams in the CFP.


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College Football Playoff Rankings: Final Top 25

25. Texas A&M Aggies 8-4 (23)

24. San Diego State Aztecs 11-2 (19)

23. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 12-1 (NR)

22. Kentucky Wildcats 9-3 (23)

21. Arkansas Razorbacks 8-4 (22)

Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY rankings

20. Houston Cougars 11-2 (21)

19. Clemson Tigers 9-3 (20

18. NC State Wolfpack 9-3 (18)

17. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 10-3 (16)

16. Oklahoma Sooners 10-2 (12)

AP Top 25 rankings

15. Iowa Hawkeyes 10-3 (14)

14. Oregon Ducks 10-3 (8)

13. BYU Cougars 10-2 (13)

12. Pitt Panthers 11-2 (15)

11. Utah Utes 10-3 (17)

CFN Rankings: 1-130 & by conference

10. Michigan State Spartans 10-2 (11)

9. Oklahoma State Cowboys 11-2 (5)

8. Ole Miss Rebels 10-2 (8)

7. Baylor Bears 11-2 (9)

6. Ohio State Buckeyes 10-2 (7)

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11-1 (6)

4. Cincinnati Bearcats 13-0 (4)

3. Georgia Bulldogs 12-1 (1)

2. Michigan Wolverines 12-1 (2)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide 12-1 (3)

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Coaches Poll College Football Rankings 
All-Time Coaches Poll Rankings | AP All-Time Rankings

Coaches Top 25 Poll powered by USA TODAY Rankings: Final Regular Season

Where do all the top teams rank in the latest Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports Top 25 at the end of the regular season? Which teams just missed out and are also receiving votes?

Where do all the top teams rank in the latest Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports Top 25? Which teams just missed out and are also receiving votes?


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2021 Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY: Final Regular Season

Others Receiving Votes
Wisconsin 105; Utah State 85; San Diego State 62; Minnesota 17; Air Force 15; Penn State 5; Fresno State 5; UCLA 3; Mississippi State 2; Coastal Carolina 2; Appalachian State 2; Purdue 1

Number in parentheses is where each team was in last week’s rankings.    

25. UTSA Roadrunners 12-1 146 (NR)

24. Arkansas Razorbacks 8-4 185 (25)

23. Texas A&M Aggies 8-4 239 (23)

22. Clemson Tigers 9-3 252 (24)

21. Houston Cougars 11-2 315 (16)

NFL Predictions Week 13 | NFL Experts Picks

20. Kentucky Wildcats 9-3 327 (22)

19. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 10-3 389 (18)

18. NC State Wolfpack 9-3 436 (20)

17. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 12-1 444 (21)

16. Iowa Hawkeyes 10-3 561 (11)

AP Top 25 rankings

15. Oregon Ducks 10-3 589 (10)

14. BYU Cougars 10-2 792 (14)

13. Oklahoma Sooners 10-2 853 (12)

12. Pitt Panthers 11-2 886 (15)

11. Utah Utes 10-3 893 (17)

College Football Playoff rankings prediction

10. Michigan State Spartans 10-2 903 (13)

9. Oklahoma State Cowboys 11-2 1036 (5)

8. Ole Miss Rebels 10-2 1130 (8)

7. Ohio State Buckeyes 10-2 1170 (7)

6. Baylor Bears 11-2 1170 (9)

CFN Rankings: 1-130 & by conference

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11-1 1266 (6)

4. Cincinnati Bearcats 13-0 1392 3 1st (4)

3. Georgia Bulldogs 12-1 1420 (1)

2. Michigan Wolverines 12-1 1474 5 1st (3)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide 12-1 1540 54 1st (2)

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Coaches Poll College Football Rankings 
All-Time Coaches Poll Rankings | AP All-Time Rankings

AP Top 25 College Football Poll, Rankings: Final Regular Season

AP Top 25 Poll – where do all the top teams stand in the latest AP college football rankings after the 2021 regular season?

Where do all the top teams rank in the final regular season AP Top 25 college football poll? Which teams just missed out, but received votes?


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2021 AP Top 25 College Football Poll: Final Regular Season

Others Receiving Votes
Utah State 109, Wisconsin 66, San Diego State 63, Minnesota 38, Purdue 36, Louisiana Tech 11, Appalachian State 9, Army 7, Mississippi State 4, Penn State 4, Northern Illinois 1

Number in parentheses is where each team finished in last week’s rankings.    

25. Kentucky Wildcats 9-3 131 (25)

24. UTSA Roadrunners 12-1 147 (NR)

23. Texas A&M Aggies 8-4 172 (24)

22. Arkansas Razorbacks 8-4 280 (23)

21. Houston Cougars 11-2 (16)

Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY rankings prediction

20. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 10-3 394 (18)

19. Clemson Tigers 9-3 396 (22)

18. NC State Wolfpack 9-3 405 (21)

17. Iowa Hawkeyes 10-3 447 (15)

16. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 12-1 480 (20)

College Football Playoff rankings prediction

15. Oregon Ducks 10-3 595 (10)

14. Oklahoma Sooners 10-2 807 (13)

13. Pitt Panthers 11-2 838 (17)

12. BYU Cougars 10-2 854 (12)

11. Michigan State Spartans 10-2 895 11)

NFL Predictions Week 13 | NFL Experts Picks

10. Utah Utes 10-3 929 (14)

9. Oklahoma State Cowboys 11-2 1060 (5)

8. Ole Miss Rebels 10-2 1101 (8)

7. Ohio State Buckeyes 10-2 1177 (7)

6. Baylor Bears 11-2 1228 (9)

CFN Rankings: 1-130 & by conference

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11-1 1280 (6)

4. Cincinnati Bearcats 13-0 1404 3 1st (3)

3. Georgia Bulldogs 12-1 1408 (1)

2. Michigan Wolverines 12-1 1480 9 1st (2)

1. Alabama Crimson Tide 12-1 1535 50 1st (4)

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All-Time Coaches Poll Rankings | AP All-Time Rankings

College Football Rankings 1 To 130: Final Regular Season

College football rankings from College Football News for all 130 teams after the end of the regular season – and by conference – with results and who’s up nextdd

College Football News 2021 college football rankings for all 130 teams after the end of the regular season with results and who’s up next.


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CFN 2021 Rankings: Regular Season Final
101-130 | 76-100 | 51-75 | 26-50 | 11-25 | Top 10
Rankings By Conference
ACC | AAC | Big TenBig 12 | C-USA | IND
MAC | MW | Pac-12SEC | Sun Belt

CFN College Football Rankings: Regular Season Final

We’ll do the CFN Formula Rankings – taking the opinion out of the mix and going only be deserve and what happened on the field – next week. For now, at the end of the regular season, it’s a mix of believe, prove, eye-test, and mostly head-to-head – when possible.

130 FIU Golden Panthers (1-11)

Last Week’s Ranking: 130
Up Next: Season Over

129 UMass Minutemen (1-11)

Last Week’s Ranking: 129
Up Next: Season Over

128 UConn Huskies (1-11)

Last Week’s Ranking: 128
Up Next: Season Over

127 Akron Zips (2-10)

Last Week’s Ranking: 127
Up Next: Season Over

126 New Mexico State Aggies (2-10)

Last Week’s Ranking: 126
Up Next: Season Over

125 New Mexico Lobos (3-9)

Last Week’s Ranking: 125
Up Next: Season Over

124 ULM Warhawks (4-8)

Last Week’s Ranking: 124
Up Next: Season Over

123 Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-10)

Last Week’s Ranking: 123
Up Next: Season Over

122 Texas State Bobcats (4-8)

Last Week’s Ranking: 122
Up Next: Season Over

121 Georgia Southern Eagles (3-9)

Last Week’s Ranking: 121
Up Next: Season Over

120 South Alabama Jaguars (5-7)

Last Week’s Ranking: 120
Up Next: Season Over

119 Southern Miss Golden Eagles (3-9)

Last Week’s Ranking: 119
Up Next: Season Over

118 Temple Owls (3-9)

Last Week’s Ranking: 118
Up Next: Season Over

117 Colorado State Rams (3-9)

Last Week’s Ranking: 117
Up Next: Season Over

116 Rice Owls (4-8)

Last Week’s Ranking: 116
Up Next: Season Over

115 Charlotte 49ers (5-7)

Last Week’s Ranking: 115
Up Next: Season Over

114 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (3-9)

Last Week’s Ranking: 114
Up Next: Season Over

113 UTEP Miners (7-5)

Last Week’s Ranking: 113
Up Next: Bowl Game

112 UNLV Rebels (2-10)

Last Week’s Ranking: 112
Up Next: Season Over

111 Ohio Bobcats (3-9)

Last Week’s Ranking: 111
Up Next: Season Over

110 Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7)

Last Week’s Ranking: 110
Up Next: Season Over

109 Troy Trojans (5-7)

Last Week’s Ranking: 109
Up Next: Season Over

108 Buffalo Bulls (4-8)

Last Week’s Ranking: 108
Up Next: Season Over

107 Bowling Green Falcons (4-8)

Last Week’s Ranking: 107
Up Next: Season Over

106 Duke Blue Devils (3-9)

Last Week’s Ranking: 106
Up Next: Season Over

105 Vanderbilt Commodores (2-10)

Last Week’s Ranking: 105
Up Next: Season Over

104 USF Bulls (2-10)

Last Week’s Ranking: 104
Up Next: Season Over

103 Wyoming Cowboys (6-6)

Last Week’s Ranking: 103
Up Next: Bowl Game

102 Liberty Flames (7-5)

Last Week’s Ranking: 102
Up Next: Bowl Game

101 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (6-6)

Last Week’s Ranking: 101
Up Next: Bowl Game

CFN 2021 Rankings: Regular Season Final
101-130 | 76-100 | 51-75 | 26-50 | 11-25 | Top 10
Rankings By Conference
ACC | AAC | Big TenBig 12 | C-USA | IND
MAC | MW | Pac-12SEC | Sun Belt

NEXT: CFN 2021 College Football Rankings: Regular Season Final Top 100