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St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (12-14) and New York Mets (13-12) meet Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: St. Louis leads 1-0

St. Louis picked up a 4-2 win over New York in Friday’s opener, covering as a +112 road favorite. The Cardinals jumped out to a 4-0 lead by the middle of the 3rd and were able to hold on as the Mets only scored 1 run apiece in the 5th and 6th innings. It was the Redbirds’ 2nd win in a row and their 3rd in the last 4 games — they had lost 4 in a row before this current 3-1 run.

The Mets have lost 4 of their last 5 — they won Wednesday’s series finale at San Francisco. RHP Jose Butto took the loss Friday as he yielded 4 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings.

Cardinals at Mets projected starters

RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Gray (2-1, 1.04 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 0.87 WHIP, 0.5 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 through 17 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 12 K in 2-0 home loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers Sunday
Career vs. Mets: 3-0, 2.60 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 13 H, 6 BB, 18 K in 3 starts

Houser (0-2, 7.45 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.76 WHIP, 6.5 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 through 19 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 8 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 10-0 setback at Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday
Career vs. St. Louis: 5-6, 3.07 ERA (70 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 64 H, 30 BB, 47 K across 13 starts and 3 relief appearances

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Cardinals at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:42 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+135) | Mets +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Cardinals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 3, Mets 1

Moneyline

LEAN CARDINALS (-135).

St. Louis is 3-1 in its last 4 games overall and is 3-1 in its last 4 home games. The Cardinals have also won back-to-back games vs. New York, being 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with the Mets in New York.

This is only a lean because the Mets are 6-4 in their last 10 games and because they hold the narrow 6-4 lead in their last 10 meetings with St. Louis.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

These are very similar teams with very similar ATS records this season so far. The Cardinals are 15-11 ATS, while the Mets are 13-12, so this would be a bet with a fair amount of risk either way. PASS on a run line wager as both the moneyline and total are safer bets.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).

The Under has hit in back-to-back games for the Cardinals and is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. For New York, the Under is 3-1 in its last 4 games and is 2-1 in its last 3 home games. The Under has also hit in back-to-back St. Louis-New York matchups and is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

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Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cincinnati Reds (14-12) and Texas Rangers (14-13) play Game 2 of their 3-game series Saturday. First pitch from Globe Life Field is slated for 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rangers lead 1-0

Texas took Friday’s opener 2-1 as 2B Marcus Semien’s solo homer with 1 out in the bottom of the 8th broke a 1-all tie.

The Reds received RHP Graham Ashcraft’s best pitching performance of the season (6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K), but it wasn’t enough. Cincinnati was shut down offensively by the Rangers as its lone run came on a SS Elly De La Cruz steal of home in the 1st inning. That’s the only run the Reds produced in their last 18 innings.

The win moved Texas to 2-2 on its current 9-game homestand. RHP Nathan Eovaldi was brilliant in a no-decision Friday, allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits and 5 walks over 6 innings with 8 K’s. The Rangers’ 2 runs came off of solo homers from Semien and LF Evan Carter (2nd inning).

Texas is 7-7 are Globe Life Field this season, while Cincinnati is 5-5 on the road.

Reds at Rangers projected starters

RHP Hunter Greene vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen

Greene (0-2, 4.55 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 27 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-0 home defeat vs. Philadelphia Phillies Monday
Never faced Rangers before

Lorenzen (2-0, 2.45 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 6.5 BB/9 and 9 K/9 in 11 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 6-4 win at Atlanta Braves Sunday
Never faced Reds before
Pitched for Cincinnati first 7 years of career (2015-21)

Reds at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:07 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rangers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-190) | Rangers -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Reds at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 5, Reds 2

Moneyline.

BET RANGERS (-125).

The run line is tempting with the +155 odds, but I’d rather take the safer bet with the moneyline.

Greene is a freak on the mound, but you never know what type of performance you’ll get out of him. He’s allowed 4, 1, 6 and 1 earned runs over his last 4 starts.

The Rangers are feasting on right-handed pitching this season, batting .257 as a team and 23 of their 26 home runs have been against righties. Texas was 50-31 at home last season. This start to the season is not indicative of how well they play at Globe Life.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’ll keep my wager to the moneyline for this ballgame.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9 (-115).

The Reds have produced just 1 run in their last 18 innings, and they face another righty on Saturday afternoon. Cincinnati has only a .218 average against right handers so far this season. Don’t expect the Reds to help much in getting the total to 9. It will be all on the Rangers.

The Rangers will get to Greene, but he won’t get shelled. Only one time in his last 6 starts has he allowed more than 4 runs.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Toronto Blue Jays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers (17-11) and Toronto Blue Jays (13-14) play the middle contest of a 3-game interleague series Saturday at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Dodgers vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Dodgers lead 1-0

Los Angeles won 12-2 Friday as slight road favorites (-118) in the series opener, while taking care of the Over (9) on its own.

The Dodgers have won 5 straight games, including 4 consecutive victories on the road. The Over and Under have alternated in the past 5 outings, too. L.A. pitching has been on point lately, allowing just 6 total runs in the past 5 contests, good for just 1.2 runs per game (RPG) allowed.

On the flip side, the Blue Jays offense has been awful lately, scoring just 7 runs in the past 4 games (1.8 RPG). Toronto has lost all 4 of those games, and the Under is on a 4-1 run, while cashing in 6 of the past 8 contests.

Dodgers at Blue Jays projected starters

RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Glasnow (4-1, 2.92 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 37 innings.

Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 10-0 home victory vs. New York Mets Sunday
2024 road splits: 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 4 BB, 17 K and .125 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 2 starts across 12 IP
Career vs. Blue Jays: 0-4, 6.86 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 20 BB, 51 K in 9 starts across 39 1/3 IP

Kikuchi (2-1, 2.28 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 27 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K in 5-3 road win at Kansas City Royals Monday
2024 home splits: 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 3 BB, 18 K and .163 OBA in 2 starts

Dodgers at Blue Jays odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:34 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Blue Jays +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+105) |
Blue Jays +1.5 (-130)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Dodgers at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 4, Dodgers 3

Moneyline

The BLUE JAYS (+125) are worth a look as short underdogs at home.

Glasnow faced Toronto plenty from his days with the Tampa Bay Rays. He likely wants to forget most of those outings against, as he is winless in 9 starts with 6 losses in his career against Toronto. Ouch.

While L.A. is 7-3 against left-handed starters this season, Kikuchi can more than hold his own, especially at home.

Run line/Against the spread

The Blue Jays +1.5 (-130) aren’t priced out of line if you’d like a little insurance and you’re a bit on the conservative side. However, I don’t want to double down on the moneyline and the run line. Take the moneyline for a much better value.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-115) is the lean, but go with a conservative half-unit play at most.

The Under has a slight 5-4 edge in the past 9 road games for the Dodgers, while going 2-2 in interleague games this season.

For the Blue Jays, the total has gone low in 4 of the past 5 games, and the Under is on a 9-4 run in the past 13 outings.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (12-14) and the Seattle Mariners (13-12) play Friday in the 1st of 3 games this weekend. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: 1st meeting; Seahawks won 2-1 last season

Arizona is onto their final series of a 10-game road trip, which began with a 5-0 loss at San Francisco April 18 and watched the D-back flip-flop wins and losses since, going 3-4. LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. raised his batting average to .300 after going 10-for-24 (.417) over his last 5 games and is tied with 2B Ketel Marte for the team lead in HRs (5).

Seattle is in 1st place by a half game in the AL West after winning 7 of last 9, including 2 of 3 midweek at Texas in Arlington. After a slow start to the season, CF Julio Rodriguez has turned it up a notch at the plate with 6 multi-hit games in his last 8 games. Plus, his 7 SBs are tied for 3rd most in the AL.

Diamondbacks at Mariners projected starters

RHP Zac Gallen vs. LHP Emerson Hancock

Gallen (3-1, 3.00 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 27 innings.

Allowed season-high 5 ER on 9 H (2 HR), 1 BB in 5 IP in 7-3 loss at San Francisco Saturday in last start
Sports career 3.65 ERA on the road (340 1/3 IP, 138 ER) in 60 starts vs a 2.77 home ERA (354 IP, 109 ER) in 60 starts

Hancock (2-2, 6.10 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 20 2/3 innings.

Originally drafted by Arizona in 2017 out of high school in 38th round but did not sign
Had 11.42 ERA after first 2 starts of season but recorded back-to-back quality starts, including 1-run ball over 6 innings in last outing, a 10-2 win vs. Colorado Rockies at Coors Field Sunday

Diamondbacks at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:37 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+130) | Mariners +1.5 (-156)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Diamondbacks at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Arizona 4, Seattle 3

Moneyline

BET ARIZONA (-130).

Entering Friday, Seattle had the highest team K% in baseball (27.6%) and Gallen has at least 6 K’s in each of his last 4 starts. The Mariners have also hit the least number of doubles, and C Cal Raleigh who leads the team in HRs (6) may have cooled off offensively after having to undergo an emergency dental procedure Wednesday.

Run line

PASS.

Seattle +1.5 (-156) is the hotter team coming into this one, and it’s at home. My lean would be to take the run and a half if I had to make a play.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).

MLB Park Factor calculates T-Mobile Park to produce the least amount of runs per game. Plus, Hancock has pitched much better lately, so this could turn into a bit of a pitchers’ duel. Only 5 pitchers out of 121 who have gone at least 20 innings this year have a lower BB% than Hancock (3.3%), so it’s unlikely the D-backs will generate much traffic on the basepaths.

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Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Minnesota Twins (11-13) and Los Angeles Angels (10-15) open a 3-game series at Angel Stadium Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET (MLB.TV Free Game of the Day). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Angels odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; split last season 3-3

The Twins are coming off a 4-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox in Minneapolis. Minnesota won the series finale 6-3 Thursday as a -195 favorite with the Over (8) hitting.

The Angels dropped 2 of 3 home games against the Baltimore Orioles in their most recent series. They wrapped up the 3-game set with a 6-5 loss Thursday as +115 underdogs as the Over (9.5) cashed.

Twins at Angels projected starters

RHP Bailey Ober vs. LHP Patrick Sandoval

Ober (1-1, 4.91 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 18 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-3 home victory vs. Detroit Tigers Saturday
Career vs. Angels: 0-0, 3.38 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 6-2 home loss July 25, 2021

Sandoval (1-3, 6.75 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.83 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 21 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 7-5 loss at Cincinnati Reds Saturday
Career vs. Twins: 1-2, 2.95 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.09 WHIP in 3 starts

Twins at Angels odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:03 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Angels -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+145) | Angels +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Twins at Angels picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 5, Angels 4

Moneyline

The TWINS (-115) should have no trouble plating runs against Sandoval, who has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 3 of his 5 starts. Ober’s stats don’t look great after giving up 8 earned runs in his season debut at the Kansas City Royals March 31, but he’s been better since, allowing a total of just 2 earned runs over his last 3 starts.

BET TWINS (-115).

Run line/Against the spread

Betting the Twins to win by 2 or more runs on the road seems aggressive, and I want no part of laying -175 on the Angels +1.5, who have lost 4 of their last 6 games by 2 or more runs.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

This number is right where I would set it. I’m personally only betting Twins ML, but if I had to play the total, I would take the Over. The Over has hit in back-to-back games for the Angels and 3 straight for the Twins. With Sandoval on the mound, Minnesota should put up at least 4 runs.

LEAN OVER 8 (-115).

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Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Washington Nationals (10-14) and Miami Marlins (6-20) open a 4-game series at loanDepot Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 11-2 last season

The Nationals are coming off a 2-1 loss as +154 home underdogs against the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday with the Under (7.5) hitting. Washington was swept for the 1st time this season and scored a total of just 4 runs over the 3-game series.

The Marlins have also lost 3 straight after getting swept by the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. The most recent loss was a 4-3 defeat as +234 underdogs Thursday as the Under (9) cashed.

Nationals at Marlins projected starters

RHP Trevor Williams vs. RHP Anthony Maldonado

Williams (2-0, 2.91 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 21 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 5-4 home win in 10 innings vs. Houston Astros Saturday
Career vs. Marlins: 1-4, 5.26 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.32 WHIP in 8 starts and 5 relief appearances, including 0-3 with a 7.59 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 18 ER) in 4 starts last season

Maldonado makes his MLB debut Friday, serving as Miami’s opener.

2024 stats with Triple-A Jacksonville: 3-0, 2.31 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.77 WHIP in 8 relief appearances
Hasn’t pitched more than 2 innings in an appearance this year in the minors

Nationals at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:21 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nationals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-190) | Marlins -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Nationals at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 4, Marlins 3

Moneyline

The NATIONALS (+105) getting plus money seems like a good bet vs. the Marlins, especially since Miami will be having a bullpen day. Williams has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 3 of his 4 starts this season and should have no trouble shutting down Miami’s offense, which is 28th in MLB in runs per game (3.38).

BET NATIONALS (+105).

Run line/Against the spread

The Nationals should cover the +1.5, but betting MLB teams at -190 is a losing proposition long term.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

The Under has gone 6-1-1 in Washington’s last 8 games and 5-1 in Miami’s last 6. The Nationals and Marlins are 21st and 25th, respectively, in hits per game, and Williams hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in a start this season.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).

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Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (16-10) take on the San Diego Padres (14-14) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at PETCO Park at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 5-2 last year

The Phillies head to the West Coast after taking Thursday’s game 5-0 against the Reds in Cincinnati. It stopped a 2-game losing streak that followed a 7-game winning streak. After a slow start to the season, the Phils are 8-2 over the last 10 and have drawn within 2 1/2 games of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. OF Kyle Schwarber has yet to find it as he’s 4-for-36 (.111) with 3 of those hits leaving the park in the last 10 games.

The Friars must have been ready to leave Denver as they dropped Thursday’s game 10-9. They were up 9-4 before giving up 6 runs in the 8th to split the 4-game series. Hot-hitting rookie OF Jackson Merrill missed Thursday’s game with a groin injury, but he’s expected to be available Friday. He’s hitting .318 with 1 HR and 12 RBIs. He’s at a cool +500 if you’re looking to get in on him for NL Rookie of the Year.

Phillies at Padres projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Nola (3-1, 3.16 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 28 2/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K against Chicago White Sox Sunday
Has a 1.81 ERA in his last 4 starts since allowing 6 ER in his 1st start
Last 5 regular season starts against Padres: 1-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 40 K in 35 IP

Musgrove (3-2, 5.74 ERA ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 31 1/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB 3 SO Sunday against Toronto Blue Jays
4 career regular season starts vs. PHI: 1-1, 3.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 24 K in 24 IP

Phillies at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Padres +1.5 (-185)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Phillies at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Padres 4

Moneyline

I give the Phils the edge here. Nola has been amazing since his 1st start. Current Padres have hit just .196 against Nola in 49 plate appearances. Opposing Phils have hit just .235 off Musgrove in 120 PAs, but something isn’t right with him. His fastball has dropped from 93.1 mph to 92.3 mph thus far.

Take the PHILLIES -115.

Run line/Against the spread

Nola has 7 and 9 K’s in his last 2 starts, and he has fanned 10 and 11 Padres in his last 2 starts against them. San Diego is the 5th-toughest to K, but I like the value on AARON NOLA OVER 5.5 K’S (+125).

Over/Under

The Padres are 9th with 5 runs per game (RPG), and the Phils are tied for 14th at 4.3 RPG. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. It’s slated to be a chilly, 60 degrees with a 13-mph straight-line wind from left field to right.

So I think this is going Over, but most books have fallen back to 7.5.

PASS on the 8 number and wait for an Over 7.5.

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New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees (17-9) take on the Milwaukee Brewers (16-8) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at American Family Field at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Brewers won 2-1 last year

The Yanks dropped Thursday’s tilt 3-1 at home against the Oakland Athletics. They split the 4-game series and scored 1 total run in the 2 losses. The Yankees are 5-5 over their last 10 games. OF Aaron Judge has yet to find his stroke, hitting just .186 with 4 HRs and 13 RBIs.

The Brew Crew took the final 2 of a 4-game series in Pittsburgh. They won 7-5 Thursday and sit atop the NL Central. C William Contreras is tearing the cover off the ball, hitting .365 with 5 HRs and 22 RBIs.

Yankees at Brewers projected starters

RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Colin Rea

Gil (1-1, 2.75 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 7.8 BB/9 and 13.3 K/9 in 19 2/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 9 K Sunday against Tampa Bay Rays
Has never faced Milwaukee
Leads the league with 17 BB

Rea (2-0, 2.08 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 21 2/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K Sunday against St. Louis Cardinals
2 career starts vs. Yankees: 1-0, 2.53 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11 K in 10 2/3 IP

Yankees at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Brewers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+135) | Brewers +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Yankees at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Brewers 3

Moneyline

We have a clash between 2 very different pitchers. Gil, who has walked the ballpark, touches 97 on his fastball. He has a 2.94 FIP, which is fielding independent pitching and measures a pitcher’s ability to prevent homers, free passes and create strikeouts.

Rea will consistently be around 92, and despite having a 2.08 ERA, his FIP is 4.02. I look for the Yankees to jump on Rea. His 2.53 ERA against the Yanks looks great, but one start was in 2016.

Take the YANKEES -125.

Run line/Against the spread

The Brewers scored 7 runs Thursday, but they scored just 8 runs in the previous 4 games. While the Yankees are inconsistent offensively, they have plated 4+ runs in 6 of 10 games.

Take the YANKEES -1.5 (+135).

Over/Under

Rain is expected, which means the roof should be closed. Each team is 4-6 O/U over the last 10 games. In 3 games in this park in late 2022, we had totals of 20, 5 and 13.

I’ll take the OVER 8.5 (-115).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Tampa Bay Rays (13-13) visit the Chicago White Sox (3-22) Friday for the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch from Guaranteed Rate Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. White Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Rays won 6-1 last season

The Rays snapped a 3-game losing streak and avoided a 3-game sweep by the visiting Detroit Tigers Wednesday with a 7-5 win, covering as slight +101 underdogs. CF Randy Arozarena and 2B Curtis Mead each homered in the win.

The White Sox enter on a 7-game losing streak and have been swept in back-to-back series after falling 6-3 at the Minnesota Twins Thursday, failing to cover as +178 road underdogs. After taking a 2-0 lead into the 6th, Chicago allowed 6 runs in 3 innings, which proved to be fatal. LHP Tanner Banks yielded a run and 3 hits without recording an out to pick up the loss in relief.

Rays at White Sox projected starters

RHP Zach Eflin vs. RHP Chris Flexen

Eflin (1-2, 3.68 ERA) makes his 6th start of 2024. He has a 1.06 WHIP, an MLB-best 0.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 29 1/3 innings.

Rays are 2-3 in Eflin’s 5 starts, scoring 3 runs or fewer in 4 of the 5 games
Allowed 12 ER and 4 HR in his 5 starts, while striking out 26 and walking just 2

Flexen (0-3, 6.41 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 through 19 2/3 innings.

White Sox are 0-5 in Flexen’s starts this season with the righty allowing 3 or more runs in 3 of the 5 games
Allowed 14 ER and 4 HR in his 5 appearances, while striking out 11 and walking 7

Rays at White Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rays -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | White Sox +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (-140) | White Sox +1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Rays at White Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 6, White Sox 4

Moneyline

PASS.

There is minimal value on the Rays (-250) to beat the White Sox (+200), who hold the worst record in the MLB.

Run line/Against the spread

BET RAYS -1.5 (-140).

The White Sox are 1-13 in their last 14 games. Excluding the 1st setback of that stretch, a 7-6 defeat in 10 innings, the Sox lost each by 2 or more runs. They have allowed 6 or more runs in each of their last 6 games and have scored 3 or fewer runs in 10 of their last 13.

Meanwhile, each of the Rays’ last 2 wins have come by 2 or more runs. Overall, 9 of their 13 wins have been by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-110).

The Rays have hit the Over in 3 of their last 4 games and have scored 3 or more runs in 6 of their last 10. They face a Chicago team that has allowed 6 or more runs in each of their last 7. The White Sox have scored 3 or more runs in 4 of their last 6.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cincinnati Reds (14-11) visit the Texas Rangers (13-13) on Friday night. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Reds won the 3 games played in Cincinnati in 2023

The Reds split their series 2-2 with the Philadelphia Phillies after falling 5-0 on Thursday and failing to cover as +153 home underdogs. Cincinnati was unable to stimulate any offense and was held to just 3 hits. RHP Nick Martinez allowed 11 H and 5 ER in 6 IP and took the loss.

The Rangers dropped their series against the Seattle Mariners 2-1 after losing 4-3 on Thursday as +106 home underdogs. 1B Nathaniel Lowe and SS Josh Smith each homered while LHP Andrew Heaney went 6 IP with 4 ER to pick up the loss.

Reds at Rangers projected starters

RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Ashcraft (3-1, 5.24 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 2.82 BB/9 and 9.27 K/9 in 22.1 IP.

Reds are 3-1 in his 4 starts, including 3-0 in his last 3
Has allowed 13 ER and 4 HR in his 4 starts with 7 BB and 23 K

Eovaldi (1-2, 3.30 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.60 BB/9 and 8.40 K/9 in 30.0 IP.

Rangers are 2-3 in his 5 starts having lost 3 straight
Has allowed 11 ER and 3 HR in his 5 starts with 12 BB and 28 K

Reds at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:14 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rangers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-140) | Rangers -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Reds at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 4, Rangers 3

Moneyline

BET REDS (+145).

Cincinnati is 5-2 in its last 7 games, including 2-1 in its last 3, and has scored 7 or more runs in 4 of its last 7 games while allowing 1 or fewer runs in 3 of its last 7. With Ashcraft taking the mound for the Reds, they have had success this season and will see more of the same on Friday.

The Rangers are 2-4 in their last 6 games and have been held to 3 or fewer runs in each of those losses. They have allowed 4 or more runs in 8 of their last 9.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The moneyline presents better value for Cincinnati.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9 (-120).

The Reds have failed to hit the Over in 7 of their last 10 games, including 4 of their last 5. They have held opponents to 5 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 9 while scoring 3 or fewer in 6 of their last 10 games.

Texas has hit the Under in 6 of its last 10 games, including each of its last 3. It has scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of its last 10 games while allowing 4 or fewer in 7 of its last 10.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @seth_orlemann on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball

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