Category: Advanced Stats

Cowboys need a new RB, here’s the best draft slot to find a star

Looking at where the NFL’s top rushers are drafted, the Cowboys should have an idea when they should target the position in 2024> | From @ReidDHanson

The Cowboys are in the market for a RB. Tony Pollard has left the building leaving Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn, Hunter Luepke and Malik Davis to pick up the slack. With only 163 career carries between them, reinforcements are needed in Dallas.

2024 featured one of the best free agent RB classes seen in years, yet the Cowboys, intent on cutting costs, quietly sat out. With top tier, middle tier and even most lower tier options gobbled up, Dallas will likely shift their focus to the 2024 NFL draft to fill their needs at RB1.

Unlike last season, this year’s RB draft class isn’t extraordinarily deep. Good options exist but the pool is somewhat shallow. With a glaring need staring them in the face, the Cowboys can’t afford to miss out. None of their current backs profile as a starter so it’s imperative they find a prospect who’s at the very least capable of splitting a starting load in Year 1.

The temptation to overdraft will be significant for the Cowboys but looking back at where the best RB performers have been drafted could help guide them to more prudent decisions in the draft.

Grading players is no simple task, and this is especially true at the RB position. Yardage totals and yards/carry are often the result of good blocking and not exceptional RB play, so for this exercise PFF grades and rushing yards over expected (RYOE) will be used to determine the top-10 RBs in the NFL today.

Of the top-10 graded RBs in 2023, only one, Christian McCaffery was drafted in the first round. Five were drafted on the second day (rounds 2-3) three were drafted in the fifth round and one went undrafted altogether. For the sake of argument, the undrafted player will be given a draft slot of 265. With that in mind, the average draft spot of a top-10 RB comes in at 108.2, which would be right at the top of the fourth round.

RYOE has many of the same names as PFF on their leaderboard (which is probably a good sign). While RYOE doesn’t assess receiving skills or pass protection, it speaks directly to a RB’s ability to add value to situations given to him by his offensive line. Player GPS makes this a little more objective than PFF grades so it’s interesting to see the average draft spot of these top-10 come in at 155.5.

Both lists indicate top producing RBs are readily available on Day 3 of the draft and the Cowboys should not feel obligated to use a top-100 pick on a position that offers so much value later in the draft.

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RASmatazz: Athleticism not a problem for Cowboys’ projected OL

If the Cowboys are forced to play with their current offensive line projection, their Relative Athletic Scores should provide optimism. | From @ReidDHanson

The Cowboys offensive line is in a state of flux. LT Tyron Smith and OC Tyler Biadasz left in free agency opening up enormous holes in the starting lineup. Dallas would like to fill at least one of those vacancies with a rookie draft pick this April. But with so many roster needs and so much unpredictability in the draft, there’s no telling how successful that strategy will be.

If the Cowboys fail in their attempts to fill these starting roles through the draft, they will need to get creative with their preexisting internal options. While there is definitely room for growth in performance, the underlying core trait of athleticism is certainly in the house for the majority of the projected starters if the team is unable to augment the group.

The general consensus the team moving Tyler Smith to LT, T.J. Bass taking over at LG, Brock Hoffman elevating to OC, Zack Martin staying at RG and Terence Steele giving it another go at RT.

The Smith-Bass-Hoffman-Martin-Steele quintet isn’t ideal, but it would allow the Cowboys to focus on other needs like DT, RB and LB early. Bass, Hoffman and Steele are all young undrafted players and would give Dallas a low-pedigree offensive line in 2024.

Is it realistic to think that would work? Is it even realistic to think the Cowboys would allow such an experiment to take place?

Under Will McClay the Cowboys have frequently leaned on the analytics of the prospects in order to make draft decisions. They believe in measurables such as arm length, wingspan, height, weight, and explosiveness in making their draft decisions. Players often need to meet minimum thresholds to be considered in Dallas. How they stack up against other NFL players at their position matters so no one should take Combine numbers or pro day numbers lightly.

Relative Athletic Score (RAS) is a metric used to gauge an NFL draft prospect’s athletic standing relative to the position in which he plays. Using measurables such as height, weight, speed, and other athletic drills, RAS creator Kent Lee Platte can compare a prospect against his positional peers to show teams how this player stacks up against others in the NFL.

RAS is exactly the type of thing the Cowboys care about when making draft decisions. It’s not the end-all be-all in the process nor is it more important than film, but it plays a critical role in determining future success.

Despite being undrafted, Steele and Bass both posted excellent RAS scores as prospects. Bass’s 40-yard dash was his only true blemish but his size, strength and 10-yard split more than made up for it. Steele’s explosiveness wasn’t great but his physical measurements and speed were top notch.

The weak link on this proposed lineup is without question at center with Hoffman. Hoffman’s RAS is less than inspiring which is why Bass might be considered in the mix at center if a plug-and-play LT is acquired early in the draft.

None of this data indicates the quality of play these players will deliver but it shows at least four of them have the physical ability to form a good offensive line and that’s certainly a step in the right direction.

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Cowboys banking on Terence Steele’s improvement in 2024

The Cowboys are going to be breaking in two new starters on the OL so they need Terence Steele to step up into a more self-sufficient role. | From @ReidDHanson

When the Cowboys re-signed Terence Steele to a five-year, $85,500,000 deal in the offseason of 2023, they did so assuming Steele would return to form following his December knee injury.

Assumptions can be dangerous business in the NFL; especially true when dealing with injured players. The Cowboys assumed Michael Gallup would bounce back from his knee injury at the end of the 2021 season and that never materialized. They made similar losing bets by re-signing injury flagged players like Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch only to see their time cut short as well. Last seen, Steele was an extreme liability in pass protection.

Out of 81 OTs graded by PFF in 2023, Steele graded 70th overall. Prescott’s 2.56 ATT (average time to throw) was among the 10 fastest of those QBs with 15 or more starts, yet Steele still surrendered 56 pressures, which is second most among all OTs who played at least 80 percent of the snaps in 2023.

In all fairness, pass protection was always Steele’s weakness, even before his injury. But his run blocking was dominant in the past, so it made up for his average-to-below-average pass protection. In 2023, neither phase of his game lived up to expectations. Given the state of the Cowboys offensive line in 2024, it’s imperative Steele regains his preinjury form if the Cowboys offense wants to survive.

The Cowboys offensive line is going through a churning period of sorts this year. Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz have both left in free agency and without a clear heir apparent waiting in the wings, both spots could be reliant on rookies for replacements.

Sure, Tyler Smith could move over to LT and Brock Hoffman could step in at center, but both moves represent a step back at their respective position (at least temporarily) and Smith’s move just creates a new hole elsewhere (LG).

Even if the draft lands perfectly and the Cowboys are able to find their LT and C solutions early, there’s a learning curve which must be accounted for as they develop into real NFL linemen. Blue-chip prospects still struggle early as they transition to the pro game, forcing teams to roll assistance in their direction. In these situations, stability at other positions is a necessity.

In 2023 Steele regularly demanded assistance in pass protection. Luckily for him Smith at LT was one of the best in the game. According to Next Gen Stats, Smith worked on an island the third most frequently in 2023. And his 6.7% pressure rate allowed on those snaps was tops in the NFL.

The Cowboys could afford to roll help Steele’s way last season because Smith was downright dominant on the other side. In games Chuma Edoga had to play LT, things got ugly fast. Like Steele, Edoga demanded help frequently. Since Mike McCarthy couldn’t roll help to both of them at the same time, play-calling adjustments had to made and Dak Prescott’s internal clock oftentimes had to be sped up.

While a highly drafted rookie LT will hopefully be better than Edoga was in 2023, he’s extremely unlikely to be as dominant as Smith was. He’s going to need help with some assignments but to send him that help Steele is going to have to be more reliable on the right side.

Despite just technically starting his extension this season, Steele’s contract is structured in a way he’s releasable as early as next offseason. So, while he’s technically the 10th highest paid RT in the NFL per OTC, he’s playing for his job this season and the Cowboys’ offensive survival relies on his success.

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Cowboys’ gross deficiency in this metric an indictment on play design

The two best teams with the two best coaches lead the NFL in yards after the catch while the Cowboys finished near the bottom. | From @ReidDHanson

The Cowboys were an elite offense most of the 2023 season. Finishing first in points, fourth in yards, second in EPA/play and third in success rate, it seems as if the offense is the least of their worries heading into the offseason.

But frequent disappearing acts against key opponents suggests otherwise. Dallas scored only 10 against San Francisco, 10 against Buffalo, 20 against Miami, 20 against Detroit, and then finished the season with a disappearing act in the first half against Green Bay. It all signals the offense isn’t quite as resilient as it needs to be, and nowhere near playoff level even if the cumulative data suggests otherwise.

Being more resilient on offense and squeezing the most out of every opportunity should be of highest priority for Mike McCarthy. McCarthy, the offensive play caller and chief play designer, just got a firsthand education on what successful offenses do to stay successful against the NFL’s best.

Super Bowl coaches Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan are regarded as two of the most offensively brilliant minds in the NFL. The Cowboys and the other 29 teams who didn’t play in the Super Bowl would be wise to take notice of what they’re doing. Neither offense is particularly similar, but both are widely successful in critical games.

Reid’s offense in Kansas City is a west coast offense similar to that of McCarthy. He focuses on high percentage passes to move the ball – often in place of a running game. Shanahan’s offense is a new adaptation of the old Shanahan offense. Instead of living and dying by wide zone and play-action passing like the days of old, it adds in motion at the snap and versatile personnel to exploit mismatches and create space downfield.

The Chiefs like to line up in shotgun and spread out. The 49ers like to play under center and in tight formations. KC likes to pass. San Fran likes to run. The differences across the board are significant so when a common trait is discovered, it stands out in a big way.

12 personnel an offensive trend Cowboys couldn’t exploit in 2023

Passing out of 12 personnel groups has been highly productive in the NFL yet the Cowboys’ issues at TE have caused them to struggle in this area. | From @ReidDHanson

The NFL is a game of mismatches. Top offensive minds are constantly searching for ways to gain advantages by utilizing certain personnel groups. It’s something the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree has taken to new heights and something that’s consistently burned the Cowboys defense in recent matchups.

Adding an extra TE to the field often forces defenses to match personnel; achieved by swapping a DB for an extra LB on most occasions. This adjustment adds to the overall size of the defense but can come at the cost of speed and coverage ability. This situation is exploitable if the TEs brought in to facilitate the running game are also legitimate pass threats.

12 personnel often makes it’s biggest impact in the passing game. Even though the majority of the plays that take place with two TEs on the field are runs, it’s usually the passes out of this look that produce the biggest EPA gains.

In 2022 the Cowboys took big steps in their 12 personnel. With Dalton Schultz and surprising rookie Jake Ferguson leading the charge, the Dallas offense wasn’t just a rushing offense in two TE looks, but they were a downfield passing attack as well.

At an EPA/play of 0.22 on passing attempts, Dallas’ 12 personnel led the team in passing efficiency of personnel groups with >25 snaps.

Both the TE1 and TE2 were legitimate receiving weapons with run after the catch ability. It made up for the Cowboys’ issues at WR that season and kept the offense less predictable in what is traditionally a run-heavy personnel group.

In 2023, the Cowboys weren’t so fortunate. With Schultz playing for the Texans and the rookie Luke Schoonmaker coming in to work behind Ferguson in most two TE looks, Dallas’ 12 personnel took a step back. For as good as Ferguson was in Year 2, Schoonmaker had a tough time assimilating as an NFL pass catcher.

The Cowboys used 12 personnel 119 times less than they did in the previous season, and overall used it four percent less than the league average (15.2% compared to 19.2%). Their EPA/pass of 0.14 in12 personnel group ranking behind their 11 personnel, 10 personnel and 21 personnel groups.

If the Cowboys move on from Michael Gallup in 2024, like many suspect they will, the offense will need to get more from their TE2 to make up for it.

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Here’s where the Cowboys’ defense thrives most, coverage or pass rush

How the Cowboys do rushing three, four, five or six+ pass rushers and does it make sense to populate coverage heading into the playoffs? | From @ReidDHanson

The NFL is an ever-evolving beast. One day the Tampa 2 defense is ruling the day, the next day the Seattle single high is the defensive de jour. In 2023, it’s versions of 2-high coverage (Cover 2, 4, 6) that’s captivating defensive coordinators.

The Vic Fangio discipline has smothered scoring league-wide in recent seasons. 10 QBs passed for 30 or more touchdowns in 2020. Nine passed for 30 or more in 2021. In 2022 and 2023, only four passers in each season hit the 30-mark, and in 2023 specifically, only the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott passed for over 32.

The Cowboys have generally resisted the trend of bend-but-don’t-break coverage. Dan Quinn has preferred to do what he knows best, and that’s Cover 1. Dallas led the NFL in Cover 1 usage in 2023 and doesn’t appear to be in any hurry to change that as they enter the postseason. Together with his amoeba-like front, Quinn is free to send three, four or even five rushers after the passer without any major disruptions in coverage.

While everyone else in the NFL is aggressively packing secondaries to limit chunk plays and make intermediate windows narrow, the Cowboys are still embracing the risk-reward nature of Cover 1.

With his favorite coverage to lean on, Dallas has been happy to mix up the pass rush. Notoriously not one to be blitz-happy, Quinn has taken on a more aggressive attitude of late, blitzing 28.5% of the time in 2023. This blitz rate ranks the Cowboys 13th in the league and has made the Dallas pass rush one of the NFL’s most feared units in the NFL.

Oddly enough, where the Cowboys have drawn the most criticism isn’t in their stubborn refusal to accept current NFL trends in coverage, it’s in their less aggressive defensive fronts. When Dallas doesn’t prioritize pressure and drops extra players into coverage, their defense has looked downright terrible at times. Is that a matter of the oft-unreliable “eye test” or do the number back it up?

Since the definition of blitz varies from outlet to outlet, let’s look at the actual numbers of pass rushers sent and the impact on EPA (numbers curtesy of Sumer Sports):

In standard four-man pass rushes, which Dallas uses 66.3% of the time, the Cowboys are producing a pressure rate of 30.5% and a -0.02 EPA/play. In five-man rushes, which the Cowboys use 27.6% of the time, they produce a pressure rate of 39.5% and an EPA/play of -0.12 (the more negative the number the better). In rushes of six or more, which Dallas deploys 3.9% of the time, the Cowboys produce a pressure rate of 40.9% and an EPA/play of -0.93.

Not surprisingly, more rushers have produced more pressure, and more pressure has produced better EPA results. Why? Because the secondary can handle it. But what about packing the secondary and sending three or less pass rushers?

While these situations haven’t happened often, the results have been pretty telling. In these situations, Dallas has produced a pressure rate of 23.1% and an EPA/play of +0.59. At just 2.3% of plays, it’s a small sample size but important to take note of nonetheless.

The Cowboys’ coverage scheme is built with pressure in mind. Ballhawks fly freely in the secondary and thrive with man coverage and nervous QBs. Stephon Gilmore is holding passers to a CPOE of -5.9 when targeted while DaRon Bland holds them to a dismal -12.0% CPOE. The Cowboys are essentially built to pressure passers and lean on their man-coverage CBs, and sometimes that means blitzing.

The Cowboys aren’t conforming to league trends and it’s working to their advantage. In a season in which big plays are hard to come by, the Cowboys are prone to give one here and there, but over the course of the season their style has served them well and they intend to lean on that style as they embark on the postseason.

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Key Matchup: Cowboys pass rush, Packers OL pits strength against strength

The Cowboys are No. 1 in PRWR while the Packers are No. 2 PBWR; matching strength against strength in the wild-card round of the playoffs. | From @ReidDHanson

The Dallas Cowboys upcoming wild-card matchup against the Packers is more than just a grudge match between Mike McCarthy and the team that once fired him. It’s a game that pits strength against strength, which could ultimately decide which team advances to the divisional round and which team advances to the offseason.

The Cowboys are loaded in the pass-rusher department, and it shows. Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dante Fowler, Dorance Armstrong, Osa Odighizuwa and Sam Williams make up arguably the best group of pressure players in the NFL. The Packers just so happen to be equally as proficient in stopping the pass-rush.

What Dallas may lack in sack totals (13th in NFL), they make up for pass rush win rate. With a 59 percent success rate, the Cowboys are No. 1 in the NFL in pass rush win rate and effective at pressuring QBs even without a blitz.

Green Bay finished the regular season ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s pass block win rate and are well equipped to stop even the most relentless of pass rushes. On Sunday, somethings gotta give.

The Cowboys have a couple items working in their favor:

  1. The speed in which they apply pressure.
  2. The multiple areas they can attack with pressure.

Is the Cowboys one-dimensional offense fixable, fine, or a fatal flaw?

The Cowboys offense is getting carried by the passing game, so here’s what’s wrong with the running game and how can it be fixed… | From @ReidDHanson

With just one game remaining in the regular season, it’s become pretty clear what the Cowboys offense is and what it isn’t. They are a one-dimensional attack, relying heavily on the arm of Dak Prescott and the legs of CeeDee Lamb. They aren’t a viable running team, capable of shouldering a load or even keeping defenses honest.

The delta between the air and ground game in Dallas is significant. The ground attack is producing an EPA/rush of -0.67 with a success rate of just 40.9%, while the ballistics department is posting +0.21 EPA/attempt through the air with a success rate of 47.1%. The fact the Cowboys offense is somehow ranked No. 2 in the NFL without any credible form of a ground game to be seen, is a testament to the proficiency of the passing game.

Stop me if you heard this one: the Dallas Cowboys are entering the postseason as a one-dimensional offense.

The Cowboys now find themselves heading into the playoffs with the full weight of the offense on Prescott’s shoulders. It’s similar to how they entered the postseason last year when the running game cratered following Terence Steele’s season-ending knee injury. It also threatens to be their undoing if they can’t fix it and the passing game trips up at some point.

All NFL QBs, including Dak Prescott, ranked by Total QBR going into Week 18

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and as the season winds down, the best QBs are staking their claim to guide their club’s to the playoffs. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott leads the NFL with 32 touchdown passes going into the final game of the season. Despite a large percentage of media using his 2022 performance in bad-faith arguments, he’s proven himself as one of the game’s best quarterbacks this season and that last year’s interception total was an aberration.

Prescott’s passer rating (104.2) ranks second in the league, as does his Total QBR rating on ESPN (70.5).

Here is part of ESPN’s explanation for its Total QBR rating, courtesy of Sharon Katz and Brian Burke:

ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

So, with that context in mind, here’s a look at the QBR ratings for all 32 NFL teams, some with multiple entries, going into Week 18 of the 2023 season.

Is the Cowboys passing game really dead in the water without CeeDee Lamb?

The Cowboys fell under criticism for staying from CeeDee Lamb on Sunday but is the passing game really hapless without him? | From @ReidDHanson

One of the top headlines to immerge from the Cowboys’ Week 16 loss in Miami is how CeeDee Lamb disappeared from the gameplan for literally half of the game. With zero targets in the second and third quarters, Lamb was absent for an entire half. It’s no coincidence the Cowboys struggled during those periods of time.

It seems an odd thing to do to a player who logged 93 yards alone in the first quarter, but according to coach Mike McCarthy it was something unplanned that simply followed the natural “ebb and flow of the game.”

It’s a fair answer considering a live NFL game is a series of actions and reactions, and often times the best read isn’t to the best player. The circumstances of the drives also matter.

In quarters one and four, the Cowboys had 49 plays on offense. In quarters two and three they had only 31 plays on offense. Was Lambs absence a byproduct of limited plays or are the limited plays a byproduct of not using Lamb? Can we say, both?

But is the Cowboys offense really dead in the water when it’s not funneling through No. 88? Is it really Lamb or bust in Dallas like many have suggested this week?

Looking at the numbers from last week the Cowboys had a number of productive players in the passing game. Volume wise, no one approaches Lamb’s 9.5 expected points added on the day. But on a per play basis, many players met, or even exceeded, Lamb’s 0.95 EPA/play.

WR2 Brandin Cooks averaged 1.77 EPA/play. Every ball he caught successfully increased the Cowboys scoring probabilities (measured in success rate) making him the most efficient target on the field. Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin averaged 1.73 EPA/play and 1.66 EPA/play, respectively. They’re not much more than role players, but they’re highly effective role players at least. Even Jake Ferguson, who saw a higher volume than the others, managed a positive EPA/play of 0.30.

While Michael Gallup, Peyton Hendershot, Rico Dowdle, Tony Pollard, and Luke Schoonmaker all offered negative returns on the day, the success of the others shows the Cowboys have plenty of weapons on offense other than Lamb.

Does this excuse Lambs lack of targets through half the game?

Certainly not. But it shows the Cowboys No. 2 ranked passing attack this isn’t completely hapless without him. The Cowboys’ passing attack is really, really good and a big reason why is because of Lamb. But he’s not the only reason.

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