Cowboys’ gross deficiency in this metric an indictment on play design

The two best teams with the two best coaches lead the NFL in yards after the catch while the Cowboys finished near the bottom. | From @ReidDHanson

The Cowboys were an elite offense most of the 2023 season. Finishing first in points, fourth in yards, second in EPA/play and third in success rate, it seems as if the offense is the least of their worries heading into the offseason.

But frequent disappearing acts against key opponents suggests otherwise. Dallas scored only 10 against San Francisco, 10 against Buffalo, 20 against Miami, 20 against Detroit, and then finished the season with a disappearing act in the first half against Green Bay. It all signals the offense isn’t quite as resilient as it needs to be, and nowhere near playoff level even if the cumulative data suggests otherwise.

Being more resilient on offense and squeezing the most out of every opportunity should be of highest priority for Mike McCarthy. McCarthy, the offensive play caller and chief play designer, just got a firsthand education on what successful offenses do to stay successful against the NFL’s best.

Super Bowl coaches Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan are regarded as two of the most offensively brilliant minds in the NFL. The Cowboys and the other 29 teams who didn’t play in the Super Bowl would be wise to take notice of what they’re doing. Neither offense is particularly similar, but both are widely successful in critical games.

Reid’s offense in Kansas City is a west coast offense similar to that of McCarthy. He focuses on high percentage passes to move the ball – often in place of a running game. Shanahan’s offense is a new adaptation of the old Shanahan offense. Instead of living and dying by wide zone and play-action passing like the days of old, it adds in motion at the snap and versatile personnel to exploit mismatches and create space downfield.

The Chiefs like to line up in shotgun and spread out. The 49ers like to play under center and in tight formations. KC likes to pass. San Fran likes to run. The differences across the board are significant so when a common trait is discovered, it stands out in a big way.

12 personnel an offensive trend Cowboys couldn’t exploit in 2023

Passing out of 12 personnel groups has been highly productive in the NFL yet the Cowboys’ issues at TE have caused them to struggle in this area. | From @ReidDHanson

The NFL is a game of mismatches. Top offensive minds are constantly searching for ways to gain advantages by utilizing certain personnel groups. It’s something the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree has taken to new heights and something that’s consistently burned the Cowboys defense in recent matchups.

Adding an extra TE to the field often forces defenses to match personnel; achieved by swapping a DB for an extra LB on most occasions. This adjustment adds to the overall size of the defense but can come at the cost of speed and coverage ability. This situation is exploitable if the TEs brought in to facilitate the running game are also legitimate pass threats.

12 personnel often makes it’s biggest impact in the passing game. Even though the majority of the plays that take place with two TEs on the field are runs, it’s usually the passes out of this look that produce the biggest EPA gains.

In 2022 the Cowboys took big steps in their 12 personnel. With Dalton Schultz and surprising rookie Jake Ferguson leading the charge, the Dallas offense wasn’t just a rushing offense in two TE looks, but they were a downfield passing attack as well.

At an EPA/play of 0.22 on passing attempts, Dallas’ 12 personnel led the team in passing efficiency of personnel groups with >25 snaps.

Both the TE1 and TE2 were legitimate receiving weapons with run after the catch ability. It made up for the Cowboys’ issues at WR that season and kept the offense less predictable in what is traditionally a run-heavy personnel group.

In 2023, the Cowboys weren’t so fortunate. With Schultz playing for the Texans and the rookie Luke Schoonmaker coming in to work behind Ferguson in most two TE looks, Dallas’ 12 personnel took a step back. For as good as Ferguson was in Year 2, Schoonmaker had a tough time assimilating as an NFL pass catcher.

The Cowboys used 12 personnel 119 times less than they did in the previous season, and overall used it four percent less than the league average (15.2% compared to 19.2%). Their EPA/pass of 0.14 in12 personnel group ranking behind their 11 personnel, 10 personnel and 21 personnel groups.

If the Cowboys move on from Michael Gallup in 2024, like many suspect they will, the offense will need to get more from their TE2 to make up for it.

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Here’s where the Cowboys’ defense thrives most, coverage or pass rush

How the Cowboys do rushing three, four, five or six+ pass rushers and does it make sense to populate coverage heading into the playoffs? | From @ReidDHanson

The NFL is an ever-evolving beast. One day the Tampa 2 defense is ruling the day, the next day the Seattle single high is the defensive de jour. In 2023, it’s versions of 2-high coverage (Cover 2, 4, 6) that’s captivating defensive coordinators.

The Vic Fangio discipline has smothered scoring league-wide in recent seasons. 10 QBs passed for 30 or more touchdowns in 2020. Nine passed for 30 or more in 2021. In 2022 and 2023, only four passers in each season hit the 30-mark, and in 2023 specifically, only the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott passed for over 32.

The Cowboys have generally resisted the trend of bend-but-don’t-break coverage. Dan Quinn has preferred to do what he knows best, and that’s Cover 1. Dallas led the NFL in Cover 1 usage in 2023 and doesn’t appear to be in any hurry to change that as they enter the postseason. Together with his amoeba-like front, Quinn is free to send three, four or even five rushers after the passer without any major disruptions in coverage.

While everyone else in the NFL is aggressively packing secondaries to limit chunk plays and make intermediate windows narrow, the Cowboys are still embracing the risk-reward nature of Cover 1.

With his favorite coverage to lean on, Dallas has been happy to mix up the pass rush. Notoriously not one to be blitz-happy, Quinn has taken on a more aggressive attitude of late, blitzing 28.5% of the time in 2023. This blitz rate ranks the Cowboys 13th in the league and has made the Dallas pass rush one of the NFL’s most feared units in the NFL.

Oddly enough, where the Cowboys have drawn the most criticism isn’t in their stubborn refusal to accept current NFL trends in coverage, it’s in their less aggressive defensive fronts. When Dallas doesn’t prioritize pressure and drops extra players into coverage, their defense has looked downright terrible at times. Is that a matter of the oft-unreliable “eye test” or do the number back it up?

Since the definition of blitz varies from outlet to outlet, let’s look at the actual numbers of pass rushers sent and the impact on EPA (numbers curtesy of Sumer Sports):

In standard four-man pass rushes, which Dallas uses 66.3% of the time, the Cowboys are producing a pressure rate of 30.5% and a -0.02 EPA/play. In five-man rushes, which the Cowboys use 27.6% of the time, they produce a pressure rate of 39.5% and an EPA/play of -0.12 (the more negative the number the better). In rushes of six or more, which Dallas deploys 3.9% of the time, the Cowboys produce a pressure rate of 40.9% and an EPA/play of -0.93.

Not surprisingly, more rushers have produced more pressure, and more pressure has produced better EPA results. Why? Because the secondary can handle it. But what about packing the secondary and sending three or less pass rushers?

While these situations haven’t happened often, the results have been pretty telling. In these situations, Dallas has produced a pressure rate of 23.1% and an EPA/play of +0.59. At just 2.3% of plays, it’s a small sample size but important to take note of nonetheless.

The Cowboys’ coverage scheme is built with pressure in mind. Ballhawks fly freely in the secondary and thrive with man coverage and nervous QBs. Stephon Gilmore is holding passers to a CPOE of -5.9 when targeted while DaRon Bland holds them to a dismal -12.0% CPOE. The Cowboys are essentially built to pressure passers and lean on their man-coverage CBs, and sometimes that means blitzing.

The Cowboys aren’t conforming to league trends and it’s working to their advantage. In a season in which big plays are hard to come by, the Cowboys are prone to give one here and there, but over the course of the season their style has served them well and they intend to lean on that style as they embark on the postseason.

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Key Matchup: Cowboys pass rush, Packers OL pits strength against strength

The Cowboys are No. 1 in PRWR while the Packers are No. 2 PBWR; matching strength against strength in the wild-card round of the playoffs. | From @ReidDHanson

The Dallas Cowboys upcoming wild-card matchup against the Packers is more than just a grudge match between Mike McCarthy and the team that once fired him. It’s a game that pits strength against strength, which could ultimately decide which team advances to the divisional round and which team advances to the offseason.

The Cowboys are loaded in the pass-rusher department, and it shows. Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dante Fowler, Dorance Armstrong, Osa Odighizuwa and Sam Williams make up arguably the best group of pressure players in the NFL. The Packers just so happen to be equally as proficient in stopping the pass-rush.

What Dallas may lack in sack totals (13th in NFL), they make up for pass rush win rate. With a 59 percent success rate, the Cowboys are No. 1 in the NFL in pass rush win rate and effective at pressuring QBs even without a blitz.

Green Bay finished the regular season ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s pass block win rate and are well equipped to stop even the most relentless of pass rushes. On Sunday, somethings gotta give.

The Cowboys have a couple items working in their favor:

  1. The speed in which they apply pressure.
  2. The multiple areas they can attack with pressure.

Is the Cowboys one-dimensional offense fixable, fine, or a fatal flaw?

The Cowboys offense is getting carried by the passing game, so here’s what’s wrong with the running game and how can it be fixed… | From @ReidDHanson

With just one game remaining in the regular season, it’s become pretty clear what the Cowboys offense is and what it isn’t. They are a one-dimensional attack, relying heavily on the arm of Dak Prescott and the legs of CeeDee Lamb. They aren’t a viable running team, capable of shouldering a load or even keeping defenses honest.

The delta between the air and ground game in Dallas is significant. The ground attack is producing an EPA/rush of -0.67 with a success rate of just 40.9%, while the ballistics department is posting +0.21 EPA/attempt through the air with a success rate of 47.1%. The fact the Cowboys offense is somehow ranked No. 2 in the NFL without any credible form of a ground game to be seen, is a testament to the proficiency of the passing game.

Stop me if you heard this one: the Dallas Cowboys are entering the postseason as a one-dimensional offense.

The Cowboys now find themselves heading into the playoffs with the full weight of the offense on Prescott’s shoulders. It’s similar to how they entered the postseason last year when the running game cratered following Terence Steele’s season-ending knee injury. It also threatens to be their undoing if they can’t fix it and the passing game trips up at some point.

All NFL QBs, including Dak Prescott, ranked by Total QBR going into Week 18

The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and as the season winds down, the best QBs are staking their claim to guide their club’s to the playoffs. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott leads the NFL with 32 touchdown passes going into the final game of the season. Despite a large percentage of media using his 2022 performance in bad-faith arguments, he’s proven himself as one of the game’s best quarterbacks this season and that last year’s interception total was an aberration.

Prescott’s passer rating (104.2) ranks second in the league, as does his Total QBR rating on ESPN (70.5).

Here is part of ESPN’s explanation for its Total QBR rating, courtesy of Sharon Katz and Brian Burke:

ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

So, with that context in mind, here’s a look at the QBR ratings for all 32 NFL teams, some with multiple entries, going into Week 18 of the 2023 season.

Is the Cowboys passing game really dead in the water without CeeDee Lamb?

The Cowboys fell under criticism for staying from CeeDee Lamb on Sunday but is the passing game really hapless without him? | From @ReidDHanson

One of the top headlines to immerge from the Cowboys’ Week 16 loss in Miami is how CeeDee Lamb disappeared from the gameplan for literally half of the game. With zero targets in the second and third quarters, Lamb was absent for an entire half. It’s no coincidence the Cowboys struggled during those periods of time.

It seems an odd thing to do to a player who logged 93 yards alone in the first quarter, but according to coach Mike McCarthy it was something unplanned that simply followed the natural “ebb and flow of the game.”

It’s a fair answer considering a live NFL game is a series of actions and reactions, and often times the best read isn’t to the best player. The circumstances of the drives also matter.

In quarters one and four, the Cowboys had 49 plays on offense. In quarters two and three they had only 31 plays on offense. Was Lambs absence a byproduct of limited plays or are the limited plays a byproduct of not using Lamb? Can we say, both?

But is the Cowboys offense really dead in the water when it’s not funneling through No. 88? Is it really Lamb or bust in Dallas like many have suggested this week?

Looking at the numbers from last week the Cowboys had a number of productive players in the passing game. Volume wise, no one approaches Lamb’s 9.5 expected points added on the day. But on a per play basis, many players met, or even exceeded, Lamb’s 0.95 EPA/play.

WR2 Brandin Cooks averaged 1.77 EPA/play. Every ball he caught successfully increased the Cowboys scoring probabilities (measured in success rate) making him the most efficient target on the field. Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin averaged 1.73 EPA/play and 1.66 EPA/play, respectively. They’re not much more than role players, but they’re highly effective role players at least. Even Jake Ferguson, who saw a higher volume than the others, managed a positive EPA/play of 0.30.

While Michael Gallup, Peyton Hendershot, Rico Dowdle, Tony Pollard, and Luke Schoonmaker all offered negative returns on the day, the success of the others shows the Cowboys have plenty of weapons on offense other than Lamb.

Does this excuse Lambs lack of targets through half the game?

Certainly not. But it shows the Cowboys No. 2 ranked passing attack this isn’t completely hapless without him. The Cowboys’ passing attack is really, really good and a big reason why is because of Lamb. But he’s not the only reason.

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Cowboys adaptability on defense will be put to the test against Dolphins

If the Cowboys play their usual brand of coverage in Week 16, they’ll be playing into the Dolphins’ strengths, says @ReidDHanson.

To adapt or not adapt, that is the question. This Shakespearean-like conundrum torments all NFL coaches but in Week 16 of the NFL season, it’s likely especially applicable to the Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.

On one hand, Quinn has the league’s No. 5 defense, by EPA standards. With depth in the secondary and strength in man coverage, he has a defense built to play nickel personnel, heavy man and single high safety coverage. Based on their ranking, it’s served him well.

On the other hand, Quinn is staring down an elite offense in Miami. It’s an offense that’s built to destroy man coverage, spread out defenses, and catch would-be tacklers out of position. It’s an offense that can win a number of ways which could mean following their season-long trends or following Buffalo’s blueprint that recently embarrassed the Cowboys.

 

 

The Cowboys adaptability on defense will be put to the test against Dolphins

If the Cowboys play their usual brand of coverage in Week 16, they’ll be playing into the Dolphins’ strengths

To adapt or not adapt, that is the question. This Shakespearean-like conundrum torments all NFL coaches, but in Week 16 of the NFL season, it’s likely especially applicable to the Cowboys defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn.

On one hand, Quinn has the league’s No. 5 defense (by EPA standards). With depth in the secondary and strength in man coverage, he has a defense built to play nickel personnel, heavy man and single high safety coverage. Based on their ranking, it has served him well.

On the other hand, Quinn is staring down an elite offense in Miami. It’s an offense that’s built to destroy man coverage, spread out defenses, and catch would-be tacklers out of position. It’s an offense that can win a number of ways, which could mean following their season-long trends or following Buffalo’s blueprint that recently embarrassed the Cowboys.

Quinn has a decision to make: Does he A) lean into his team’s strengths and do the same thing he’s done all season with the Cowboys defense? Or does he B) alter his traditional approach and play to the Dolphin’s weaknesses, besting them through strategy?

The answer would be easy if the strengths of the Cowboys defense matched the weaknesses of Miami, but unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Dallas’ favorite coverage this season, by a fairly significant margin, is Cover 1. In this coverage they’ve held opposing passing attacks to -0.21 EPA/play and -10.8% CPOE. Of their top coverages, it’s yielded the lowest yards/attempt, lowest YAC/reception, and the most interceptions.

Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa loves Cover 1 as well. Against it, he’s posted a +0.50 EPA/play and a +4.3% CPOE to go with a gaudy 8/1 touchdown to interception ratio in 2023. The Cowboys love closing off the middle of the field with a safety and playing man coverage on the boundary and Tagovailoa loves playing against it. In the infamous words of my plumber, “something’s gotta give.”

If Quinn decides to scheme to the Dolphin’s weaknesses he can employ Cover 4 or quarters defense. Tagovailoa has been producing positive EPA against all major coverages this season, but he’s generally been at his least effective against quarters. His EPA/play of +0.20 is good and his 77.2% completion percentage is elite, but his damage is far less against this than it is against the other coverages.

Cover 4 is the Cowboys’ fourth most used coverage in 2023. They are holding opponents to -0.05 EPA/play and -11.2% CPOE. They are giving up some deep passes but holding opponents to a 53.3% completion percentage. While the performance between the two teams is significantly different in Cover 4, it’s not as wide of a chasm as it is against Cover 1.

With Tyreek Hill set to play on Sunday, the Cowboys can ill afford to play into the Dolphin’s hands in coverage. Hill is a league leader against man coverage is automatic against press. Cover 1 has extra risk when Hill is on the field. Then again, Cover 4 opens up opportunities underneath and in the running game. The Cowboys can’t afford to gift easy yards again this week either.

The solution is likely a mix of coverages. Coverages that are well-disguised and not according to the typical script. Quinn has been predictable in his coverage in the past and will have to actively work to avoid such transparency in a matchup such as this.

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Scouting the Bills: A Cowboys peek at personnel, tendencies and strengths

What offensive personnel Buffalo prefers, what their tendencies and effectiveness is in each group and what it means for the Cowboys. From @ReidDHanson

In Week 15 the Cowboys will test their hot streak against one of the best teams in the AFC. For only the second time in the Dak Prescott era, the Cowboys face the Bills. This game will mark the first time Prescott has played in Buffalo and offer Dallas a chance to stay in the hunt for homefield advantage in the playoffs.

While the Cowboys are well versed with many of their top NFC opponents like Philadelphia and San Francisco, AFC teams like the Bills are somewhat foreign. They boast the second-best offensive success rate in the NFL with the fourth-best EPA/play. They have one of the league’s premier WRs in Stephon Diggs and they have a perennial MVP candidate at QB with Josh Allen.

But how do the Bills win? What personnel do they like to use and what are their tendencies in those given personnel groups?

We dive into all of that today, scouting the Bills for the Cowboys’ Week 15 showdown.