2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 receivers

From Zay Flowers to Marvin Mims, here are Doug Farrar’s top eight receivers in the 2023 NFL draft class.

Last season, NFL quarterbacks dropped back to throw the ball 21,323 times. NFL teams deployed three receivers on 15,496 of those dropbacks (72.7%), so let’s just say that receivers are important. Not only that, but they’re important both outside and in the slot. The 3×1 set, which is the dominant formation in the league today, most commonly has one tight end and three receivers, which means you’re going to have at least one receiver in the slot, and most likely two.

Projecting all that into the 2023 draft class of receivers is interesting, because while there’s a lot of talent — this might be the deepest position group in this class — there are more smaller “move-around” guys than there are obvious alpha WR1 players that you can just put on the field and watch him dominate everybody. This class of targets will require more creativity and trait-matching from their NFL coaches and play-callers, and while that’s not a bad thing, you could wind up with some prospects in less-than-ideal spots.

All we can do on this end is to present the attributes and liabilities of these receivers in as much of a vacuum as possible, and that is the plan right here.

Here are Touchdown Wire’s top eight receivers in the 2023 NFL draft class.

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football FocusSports Info Solutions, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).

(All prospect measurement percentiles courtesy of MockDraftable.com). 

2023 NFL Draft: The top 9 safeties

2023 NFL Draft: The top 11 cornerbacks

2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 linebackers

2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 interior defensive linemen

2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 edge defenders

2023 NFL Draft: The top 5 offensive tackles

2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 interior offensive linemen

2023 NFL Draft: The top 8 tight ends

VIDEO: What should the Philadelphia Eagles do with their two first-round picks?

Doug Farrar and Kyle Madson put on their GM hats, and determine what the Philadelphia Eagles should do with their two first-round picks in the 2023 NFL draft.

Once again, Philadelphia Eagles general manager is showing the rest of the NFL how things should be done. Roseman’s team has the 10th overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft as a result of a trade with the New Orleans Saints, and their 30th overall pick because they made it all the way to the Super Bowl. What should Roseman and his crew do with those two first-round picks? Not that Doug Farrar and Kyle Madson are in a position to tell Roseman how to do his job, but they do have a few well-considered ideas.

Doug: Now, if the Eagles wanted to trade up in the top 10, or hope that Jalen Carter might slide to 10, this is a potentially great environment. New defensive coordinator Sean Desai is a veteran and highly-respected coach, and this move would reunite Carter with Georgia teammates Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean. But for now, I have Philly taking Jaxson Smith-Njigba 10th overall. Good luck defending him, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith when you have to keep at least one eye on the Eagles’ quarterback-centric run game. No fun at all. 

I also have the Eagles taking a Georgia defender with their 30th pick, and that’s edge-rusher Nolan Smith, who completely dominated the combine after losing a lot of his 2022 season to injury. When healthy, Smith isn’t the most powerful disruptor at 6-foot-2 and 238 pounds, but he’s stronger than you may think, and the Eagles will likely continue to lean on a lot of five-man fronts. If you are an opposing offensive tackle, the last thing you want to see is Smith and Haason Reddick coming at you from either side of a bear front with no worries about the inside shoulder. Again, no fun at all.

Kyle: How do teams keep letting Howie Roseman get away with this?! Putting JSN in Philly would be a war crime and I personally will not allow it. It would certainly track though. He’s awesome and I think NFL teams will value him relatively highly. Honestly though I wouldn’t be surprised if Smith is their pick at 10. His torn pec in November is apparently behind him and if teams believe he’s ready to go for training camp I think he’ll be a top 10 or 15 pick. He’s a monster off the edge and a truly special athlete for his size. Putting him on an already-dominant Philly DL would be as unfair as putting JSN in their receiving corps.

At 30 I think if a TE like Dalton Kincaid or Luke Musgrave falls they’d make a ton of sense for the Eagles. Going 2 TEs with one of those guys and Dallas Goedert would be just as nightmarish as Smith-Njigba from a scheme and personnel grouping versatility standpoint. 12 personnel with Goedert and Kincaid or Musgrave would give new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson a ton of options to bend defenses into impossible spots. 

Three-round post-combine mock draft: Anthony Richardson’s rise, and Jalen Carter’s fall

With the scouting combine in the rear view, Doug Farrar’s latest mock takes it all in — including Anthony Richardson’s rise, and Jalen Carter’s fall.

It’s amazing how much the scouting combine obscures, and how much it reveals.

For all the lie-bombs and hidden agendas you get when you’re walking around Lucas Oil Stadium and the Indianapolis Convention Center, there are other times when the truth hits you right in the face, from good and bad places.

In the case of Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter, there was the story (well, stories) about his involvement in the January 15 auto accident that cost teammate Devin Willock and Georgia staffer Chandler LeCroy their lives.

From our own Barry Werner:

Carter is alleged to have been racing his 2021 Jeep Trackhawk against the 2021 Ford Expedition driven by recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy, leading to the crash.

“The evidence demonstrated that both vehicles switched between lanes, drove in the centre turn lane, drove in opposite lanes of travel, overtook other motorists, and drove at high rates of speed, in an apparent attempt to outdistance each other,” the Athens-Clarke County Police Department said in a statement.

Adding insult to the situation, ESPN reported that Carter returned to the combine in Indianapolis.

This all broke about 15 minutes before Carter was supposed to take the podium for his combine presser, so that turned into a circus. When we’re talking about the loss of life, how this affects Carter’s draft status means less than nothing in the big picture. But that will still be discussed in every NFL facility.

Then, there was Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, whose ridiculous (in a very good way) combine workout proved that he is as compelling an athlete at the position as we’ve ever seen.

Which has Richardson going above Carter in this particular mock draft — and had you told me that this would be the case when I published my last mock on February 25, I would have said that a whole lot of weird things would have to happen.

And, here we are.

So, with the 2023 scouting combine in the rear view, here’s how the first three round of the 2023 NFL draft might be affected by a week that was exceptional in all the ways you’d want, and quite a few you never saw coming.

(Note: The Miami Dolphins, who were slotted with the 21st pick in the first round, forfeited that pick as punishment from the NFL for tampering). 

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise indicated). 

Seahawks’ change in draft philosophy was out of necessity and by design

Pete Carroll and John Schneider knew they had to change their draft philosophy in 2022, and they explained it at the scouting combine.

INDIANAPOLIS — In their first five years with the Seattle Seahawks, general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll could do very little wrong. They took a team almost completely bereft of talent and, with outstanding drafts and free-agent signings, gave the franchise its first Super Bowl win, very nearly another, and created one of the most dominant defenses in NFL history.

Then, things started to go south.

In the years after Seattle’s agonizing loss to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX, the two men who could do virtually nothing wrong struggled to have their moves gain any positive traction. Impulsive trades (Jimmy Graham, Jamal Adams), drafts that produced precious little in terms of team-defining talent, and coaching choices that fell short of maximizing personnel had the Schneider’s and Carroll’s former Legion of Boom looking far more like a Legion of Whom.

Wholesale changes were on the horizon. The 2022 release of linebacker Bobby Wagner, and the trade of Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos looked at the time like more moves made by a staff that may not have been qualified to make them. Generally speaking, the people responsible for the need to blow a roster up and start over are not put in charge of those all-go rebuilds.

But Schneider and Carroll had built up enough equity to hold onto their positions, and it was likely that if the 2022 offseason and draft looked a lot like the last few, the faces of the Seahawks from a coaching and personnel perspective would be very different when the 2023 league year began.

Fortunately for Schneider and Carroll, and to their credit, they’ve been on the good foot ever since. The Wilson trade turned into an abject disaster for the Broncos, and a historic windfall for the Seahawks, who have the fifth, 20th, 35th, and 53rd picks in the upcoming draft. Moreover, after the 2022 draft the Seahawks put together, the fact that Schneider and Carroll are in charge of this particular process shouldn’t be cause for anxiety among Seahawks fans.

Because the 2022 draft not only saw several immediate starters, but immediate impact starters at positions that don’t generally see rookies excelling. The 2022 Seahawks became the first team since the 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars to start two rookie offensive tackles in Charles Cross and Abe Lucas from Week 1 on. Fifth-round cornerback Tariq Woolen might have grabbed the Defensive Rookie of the Year award were it not for the excellent exploits of Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner of the New York Jets. Gardner was selected fourth overall, Woolen had to wait until the 153rd pick to hear his name called. Cornerback Coby Bryant, Gardner’s college teammate at Cincinnati, provided value in the slot and outside, and Minnesota edge-rusher Boye Mafe started to become a real asset as the season went along.

Five potential long-term starters for a team that had struggled to produce five legit starters in their previous five drafts? Not a bad turnaround for a group desperately in need of such a thing.

If this seems to speak to a change in philosophy and methodology, both Carroll and Schneider confirmed that during their Tuesday media sessions at the scouting combine.

“We really wanted to get guys who could handle it,” Carroll told me when I asked him about why it worked so well this time around. “Because we knew they would have a chance to play. It was really important to us. Their character, and their confidence in themselves, the ways they came across with that… we were picking them for those spots hoping it would work out, and it did. Perfect group of guys in the makeup and the mentality that they brought to us. 

“We’re always trying to get more accurate is what we’re doing, and we really find that the character and makeup part of it was crucial, and we continue to look at that.

Schneider got even more specific about the makeup and character parts of the equation, pointing to the recent mistakes the team (and he) had made in this regard.

“Yeah… I think I talked about it before – the lessons you learn along the way,” he said, when I asked if 2022 felt like 2010 through 2012 all over again. “I’m Catholic, so I beat myself up a little bit. The mistakes I’ve made, and why. Comparing players, and purely drafting for need. Some of the background information we had on players from a confidence standpoint or a swagger standpoint weren’t necessarily able to compete with the Richard Shermans and the Kam Chancellors and the Bobby Wagners and the K.J.s [Wright]. Earl Thomas, you know what I mean? We knew we had to do a little better job in that regard [like] in 2010, ’11, ’12, picking players and building this thing. Not to sound weird or anything, but we were a damn good football team for a number of years. I heard [former NFL quarterback] Brady Quinn talking the other day where we had like 23 guys not make our team that went and played for other teams.”

As it had been early on, the focus was more on undervalued assets, as opposed to overvalued projects.

“Every year, you’re trying to balance team need, and just drafting the bast player all the way through. We knew we were going to have a hard time re-signing [left tackle] Duane [Brown}, so to be able to get a left tackle was a big deal for us. We knew we wanted to add a pass-rusher in Boye [Mafe] – acquire him and identify him, and having those two young guys [Cross and Abe Lucas] was obviously a big deal. The corners with Tariq [Woolen]; you guys haven’t seen  [Ohio State edge-rusher] Tyreke [Smith] yet, but when he practiced, he looked outstanding. He’s has some physical things going on to get right. But it was really about here we go, y’know – we’re going to be playing with… if we say we’re going to be a developmental organization, let’s do that.”

The difference, as both men said, was the focus on both now and the future. The Seahawks knew they had to stop getting cute with their personnel moves, thinking that they still had what they had built before. Now, it was about building it again, and as Carroll concluded, the architecture seems to be on point.

“Really, it was just what happened,” he said. “We didn’t create it – I’d like to say that John had it all figured out. Go draft these guys and they’ll play right away. We didn’t think of it that way, but we knew that the opportunities were there, and we could hopefully fit the guys into the spaces that were there. Its not always that easy, and it wasn’t easy,  but it certainly did happen this time around. It gave those guys a great opportunity to make enormous advances. That might have been kind of the one in the period of however long we’ve been here where an opportunity arises like that. Where we get the guys and they play right in the spots. But we’re certainly going to bank on it now.”

The Seahawks with a rock-solid plan? That could spell just as much trouble for the rest of the league as it did a decade ago.

Laurie Fitzpatrick’s 2022 NFL mock draft

Touchdown Wire’s, Laurie Fitzpatrick reveals her mock draft as the first round comes closer.

This is the first draft in recent memory where there isn’t a consensus number one overall prospect. There are still guys rising and falling as each day passes.

In my first and only mock, I’ve looked at the value that each player adds to the team making the pick. There are only a few teams that are in a rebuild, this means that teams may not go with best available, but rather guys that help them win now.

That being said, there won’t be any trades in this mock draft. Just straight picks that fill teams’ needs.

Let’s start with the top pick. The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock!

2022 NFL Wire mock draft: See the staff’s picks in the first round

Editors from the NFL Wire network made selections for all 32 picks in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft. Here are the results.

The first round of the 2022 NFL draft begins in three weeks.

Numerous trades involving quarterbacks and wide receivers have shaken up the first 32 picks. Several teams have multiple first-round picks. Several other teams still need a quarterback. How will it all play out once the dust settles and Roger Goodell kicks off the draft on Thursday, April 28?

Editors from the NFL Wire network made player selections for all 32 picks in the first round. Here are the results.

2022 NFL Mock Draft: How the Deshaun Watson trade could change the first round

Deshaun Watson has been traded to the Cleveland Browns. How might that shake up the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft?

After a long and drawn-out process, Deshaun Watson has a new home.

In Cleveland with the Browns.

After days of speculation, the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns have agreed on a trade to send the quarterback to the AFC North. While it seemed like Watson would be heading to the NFC South, as the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons were all viewed as the top contenders, in the end Watson is headed to the AFC after all, in what looks to be a loaded conference:

And, as you might expect, the Browns’ selection at 13 overall is part of the deal:

Let’s dive into how that, along with other recent moves, might impact the first round of the NFL draft.