NC State at Virginia college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Analyzing Monday’s NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks and tips.

The NC State Wolfpack (13-5) visit John Paul Jones Arena to play the ACC-rival Virginia Cavaliers (12-5) at 7 p.m. ET Monday. We analyze the NC State-Virginia odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

NC State at Virginia: Three things you need to know

  1. Virginia has reinforced its reputation as a defensive team this season; the Cavaliers rank first in the nation in opponent points per game and second in opponent field-goal percentage.
  2. The Cavaliers have won eight straight games, including six by double digits. They’ve also won nine of the last 10 meetings against the Wolfpack.
  3. Since 2014, Virginia has an ACC-best 85-25 record, with an 8.9 margin of victory, against conference opponents. NC State sits at just 46-60 overall against ACC foes.

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NC State at Virginia: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.


Virginia 58, NC State 56

Moneyline (ML)

Virginia has been struggling recently but did snap a three-game losing skid by defeating Georgia Tech 63-58 in its last game. NC State has won its last two games, against Clemson and Miami, and has the same ACC record as Virginia at 4-3.

The defending National Champion Cavaliers are just missing too much production from last year’s squad to feel confident enough in a Virginia (-209) moneyline wager. They rank 351st in points per game, 348th in 3-point percentage and 316th in field-goal percentage. Given their recent history against the Wolfpack and in the ACC, I cannot justify an NC State (+170) bet, either.

PASS on the NC State-Virginia MONEYLINE.

Against the Spread (ATS)

The home team generally has the edge in these games—home teams are 5-1 against the spread in the last six NC State-Virginia meetings—but that was with a title-contending Cavaliers team. The 2019-20 Virginia Cavaliers aren’t that good. You’ve read their offensive plummet above and the following Virginia ATS trends are also alarming: Virginia is just 6-11 ATS on the season, including 3-7 ATS at home and 3-5 ATS at home against teams above .500.

Also, this game should remain close because the NC State senior backcourt of Markell Johnson and C.J. Bryce are itching to get their first win against Virginia before graduating.

HAMMER NC STATE (+4, +100) at even-money.

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Over/Under (O/U)

The total of 116.5 in NC State-Virginia is shockingly low but the UNDER -116.5 (+105) is the play. Their combined Over/Under record on the season is 14-21 and nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have gone Under. Over the past five seasons, Virginia has the best Under record (75-106-2) in the ACC.

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