Fantasy football: 2024 NFL free agency roundup

NFL free agency will drastically help reshape the fantasy football landscape as the new league year begins.

Now that NFL free agency is upon us, we’ll run through the fantasy football outlooks for trades, re-signings, midrange deals, and tag recipients.

This analysis will be updated as players continue to move about in free agency, so be sure to check back regularly.

Aaron Jones quickly agrees to join Minnesota Vikings

The former Packer sticks within the NFC North for a shot at revenge.

A day after the Green Bay Packers opted to get younger at running back by signing Josh Jacobs and releasing Aaron Jones, the latter chose to stay in the NFC North on a one-year, $7 million deal with the Minnesota Vikings.

Jones appears to have favored the revenge factor and healthy paycheck over a chance at winning a Super Bowl, since the quarterback-less Vikings face a potentially dire situation at the most important position in the game. Unless a rookie steps in and “C.J. Strouds” his way out of the gates, Minnesota appears to be playing for pride in 2024. Nevertheless, Jones will be heavily utilized as the primary back in a system that has proven to generate results from the position, on the turf and through the air.

Fantasy football outlook

Jones’ versatility will help offset a likely lack of touchdowns. While age (turns 30 in December) may be working against him, and the injury bug reared its ugly head last season (11 games played), he looked rather spry down the stretch. Expect a rookie to give him the occasional breather, though it’s likely to come from a midround selection than an early investment.

Unless there’s a significant injury issue or the quarterback play is even worse than anyone can imagine, the Vikings will lean on the veteran enough to present low-end No. 2 worth in fantasy leagues. Jones may get overvalued a tad based on name recognition, but most competitive formats probably will draft him on the border of being an RB2 and third back.

Fantasy Football splash – Derrick Henry to the Ravens

Derrick Henry moves to Baltimore

The Tennessee Titans move on from Derrick Henry after eight seasons as their workhorse running back. Tony Pollard was added yesterday as a partial replacement, but the Titans begin a new era under HC Brian Callahan and without Henry for the first time since 2016.

YEAR GMS RUNS YARDS TDS PASS COMP YARDS TDS PPR RANK PPR
2016 14 110 490 5 15 13 137 0 105.7 45
2017 16 176 744 5 17 11 136 1 135.0 36
2018 16 215 1059 12 18 15 99 0 202.8 16
2019 15 303 1540 16 24 18 206 2 300.6 5
2020 16 378 2027 17 31 19 114 0 335.1 3
2021 8 219 937 10 20 18 154 0 187.1 23
2022 16 349 1538 13 41 33 398 0 304.6 3
2023 17 280 1167 12 36 28 214 0 238.1 10

Henry has been a Top-10 fantasy running back for the last five years when not injured and he’s proven to be amazingly durable for a bruiser that turns 30 years old. Henry signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Ravens to move them beyond their traditional committee backfield.

The Ravens already let Gus Edwards leave and J.K. Dobbins will be an unsigned free agent that could never remain healthy. The Ravens offense changed with new OC Todd Monken last year, and Henry is a perfect fit for what the Ravens offense needs.

Fantasy football outlook

Henry may be turning 30 years old, but he’s been amazingly durable and outside the norm for staying healthy. The future Hall-of-Famer and past 2,000-yard rusher lands in an offense that has a Top-3 offensive line – a major upgrade from the Bottom-3 O-line in Tennessee. And the new offense under Monk produced 1,696 rushing yards (No. 8) and 20 rushing touchdowns (No. 3) last year with far less talent than Henry.

The Ravens offense also does not throw much to running backs which has never been a strength for Henry. He’s exactly what the rest of the league did not want to see lining up behind Lamar Jackson.

Syndication: Palm Beach Post

Cincy changes course and trades Joe Mixon to Texans

Course correction: Houston acquires Joe Mixon via trade.

The Houston Texans pulled off a trade less than a day after reports stating Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon would be released. Instead, he’ll now line up in a backfield with second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud.

As mentioned in the response to Zack Moss agreeing to join the Bengals, Mixon has struggled with efficiency the last few years, but his rate of scoring touchdowns has dramatically improved. Nearly 28 years old, with considerable mileage on his odometer, Mixon is clearly entering the twilight of his career. Houston, which feels it is poised to win not only now but well into the future, chose a stable veteran after a one-year stint with Devin Singletary, who left for the New York Giants in free agency.

From a real-life perspective, Mixon’s veteran presence, penchant for scoring touchdowns in the red zone, pass-protection skills, and versatility will do wonders to help balance out the offense. He’s no spring chicken and lacks the burst for long-range chunk plays, which the Texans can offset during the draft or a still-deep pool of remaining free agents.

Fantasy football outlook

The fake football view puts Mixon in the range of being a high-end No. 3 and a midrange No. 2, provided he can stay healthy. The Texans, for all of last year’s impressive play, are still a young, developing offense, particularly at wide receiver. Look for ample checkdown plays to pad his receiving stats and a respectable ratio of rushing TDs to attempts, but the lack of yardage output most weeks will position Mixon to be dependent on finding the end zone to make a difference in a fantasy lineup.

Fantasy Football Fallout: Bengals to replace Joe Mixon with Zack Moss

There’s a changing of the guard in Cincinnati’s backfield.

Longtime Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon will be released and replaced by free-agent RB Zack Moss, helping the team get younger and the books get lighter.

3/12 update: Mixon was traded to the Houston Texans instead of being released.

Mixon has become mostly a plodder the past few seasons, though the seven-year pro has developed a nose for the end zone as his career has chugged along. In the first four years, he found paydirt 25 total times but has posted 37 scores in the past three campaigns. The ascension of Joe Burrow hasn’t hurt his cause, preventing defenses from fully selling out in the red zone. An adept receiver and quality blocker, Mixon should pick up in Houston where he left off, despite entering his age-28 season.

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As for Moss, he split time early in his career with Buffalo before being sent to the Indianapolis Colts a couple of years back. He filled in admirably for Jonathan Taylor last year, generating 466 rushing yards, 576 total yards, and five offensive TDs between Week 2 and Week 6. He remained involved upon Taylor’s return until seeing his workload significantly decrease before fracturing his forearm late in the year.

Moss has enough talent to be a three-down option, though it’s likely Cincinnati works in Chase Brown to enough of a degree that this might even devolve into a full-on committee.

Fantasy football outlook

It’s simply too early to make a definitive fantasy claim as to Moss’ value, but he has a prime opportunity to finish in the neighborhood of RB10 to RB15 with a similar workload to what Mixon has offered in recent years. He’s not the same quality pass catcher, but Moss isn’t the worst receiver out of the backfield, either.

We’ll do a deep dive on this situation following the NFL draft. In the meantime, Moss’ dynasty worth is trending upward, and all gamers should be optimistic about his upcoming season.

Fantasy football: Washington Commanders add Austin Ekeler

Ekeler moves on from the Chargers and joins the committee in Washington.

The Washington Commanders  wasted no time replacing the departed Antonio Gibson by grabbing Austin Ekeler as an upgrade for the new offense under OC Kliff Kingsbury. Ekeler spent seven seasons with the Chargers, and three of which produced Top-5 fantasy running back stats.

Ekeler signed a two-year deal worth up to $11 million. His production dropped last season with the change in offense and the eventual midseason firing of then-head coach Brandon Staley. His negotiating status dropped considerably from 2022 when he was the No. 1 fantasy running back.

YEAR GMS RUNS YARDS TDS TARG CATCH YARDS TDS PPR PTS RANK PPR
2017 13 47 260 2 35 27 279 3 110.9 43
2018 14 106 554 3 53 39 404 3 170.8 25
2019 16 132 557 3 108 92 993 8 313 4
2020 10 116 530 1 65 54 403 2 165.3 26
2021 16 206 911 12 94 70 647 8 345.8 2
2022 17 204 915 13 127 107 722 5 378.7 1
2023 14 179 628 5 74 51 436 1 193.4 24

The Commanders are entering the first season under HC Dan Quinn and the offense will be directed by Kingsbury. The new scheme is not expected to immediately be as pass-happy as his previous time with the Cardinals and last season helping the USC Trojans, but there’s still plenty of time left for the offense to be remade and acquire more players.

Ekeler joins a backfield that has the burly 6-1, 228-pound Brian Robinson Jr. as the primary rusher, and Ekeler’s expected to add mostly as a receiver in the committee approach. He turns 29 years old in May, and isn’t likely to see a heavy rushing load in Washington. Even with the Chargers, he had maxed out around 200 carries in the last two seasons and has durability concerns as he ages.

While the offense continues to evolve, the expectation is that Ekeler adds in a handful of carries to complement Robinson, and catches 60 to 70 passes as well. He’ll drop back from his typical first-round status of the last three seasons, but still offer consistent fantasy points in leagues rewarding receptions.

Fantasy response: Kirk Cousins agrees to huge deal with Atlanta Falcons

Captain Kirk heads to the Dirty South on a mega deal that reshapes the NFC quarterback landscape.

Will he or won’t he? That was the lingering question surrounding whether Kirk Cousins would return to the Minnesota Vikings. All doubts were erased once he agreed to a lucrative contract with the Atlanta Falcons on Monday.

There’s the obvious concern gamers will have about whether Cousins’ torn Achilles tendon is healthy, and one can safely believe there’s no way the Falcons would guarantee that kind of money without being confident in his recovery. He will officially sign as soon as Wednesday after passing a physical.

Cousins has one of the better offensive lines in his new confines, and the Falcons boast three of the most talented young players across the league in running back Bijan Robinson, wideout Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts. Expect Atlanta to add more pieces at wide receiver, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the brass brings in a veteran presence to pair with Pitts at tight end. Getting London to take the next step to becoming a true WR1 and seeing Pitts finally live up to his potential seems well within reach due to Cousins’ penchant to get the most out of his playmakers.

Fantasy football outlook

The Achilles injury will be fully healed in time for Cousins to build chemistry with his new teams and shouldn’t factor into his fantasy stock. Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will implement a system that is awfully familiar to Cousins. Both Robinson and former Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell come from the Sean McVay tree.

The veteran has earned the right to be a low-end QB1 on draft day, and there will be weeks in which Cousins resides among the strongest performers at the position.

Fantasy football: Philadelphia Eagles to sign Saquon Barkley in free agency

Barkley jumps from one AFC East roster to another in free agency.

The New York Giants were not expected to be able to retain Saquon Barkley‘s services. While the deal cannot be official until Wednesday afternoon, we now know he’ll play his first professional game as a member of a new team after agreeing to sign with the Philadelphia Eagles.

This comes shortly after Philly lost last year’s leading rusher, D’Andre Swift, to the Chicago Bears in free agency. The running back carousel continues to spin, and the Eagles are a great landing spot for Barkley to shine. Much like Swift, he’s a dual-threat option as a capable rusher and elite receiving outlet from the backfield.

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Swift produced RB19 fantasy results last season in PPR scoring, tallying 1,263 total yards and six offensive scores on 278 utilizations over 16 contests. Provided Barkley — whose well-documented injury history is a factor to consider — can play 16-plus games, that same output is easily within his reach. The biggest concern for a healthy Barkley will be Jalen Hurts stealing carries inside of the 5-yard line and rubbing him of scoring opportunities.

Fantasy football outlook

As with any season in which Barkley is in your draft sights, accepting an elevated risk of injury absence is required. Once that is out of the way, the price of admission will be somewhere between the 10th to 20th overall picks in most PPR settings. Barkley should have no problem generating RB1 results over a full slate.

Fantasy football: Green Bay agrees to terms with Josh Jacobs

One of the top backs in free agency finds a new home.

The Green Bay Packers opted to let running back AJ Dillon walk into free agency without an extension, and the team held contract negotiations with veteran Aaron Jones. In what is a mildly surprising move, former Las Vegas Raiders back Josh Jacobs has agreed to join the Packers during the early stages of the “open tampering” period.

Update: Jones was entering the final year of his contract, set to count more than $17 million against the cap, which opened the door for his release.

Fantasy football outlook

Now that Jones is out of the way, Jacobs will be a workhorse in Green Bay, and his overall fantasy value won’t deviate from RB1 draft status. Don’t be alarmed when the Packers draft or sign another back to spell him. As long as the former Raider is upright, he’s poised for a strong fantasy season, especially in PPR.

Memphis product Tony Pollard returns to the state of Tennessee

Pollard joins the Titans, presuming ending the reign of King Henry.

In 2023, Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard replaced Ezekiel Elliott in a short-lived, underwhelming stint as the franchise back. He now replaces Derrick Henry as the face of the Tennessee Titans‘ backfield.

Last year, Pollard produced respectable stats that resulted in an RB14 finish. While that seems like a fine showing on the surface, the expectations coming off Pollard’s strong 2022 campaign makes this placement less palatable. He was less efficient, scored half as many touchdowns, and averaged only the 23rd-most fantasy points among all backs with at least 10 appearances. More work didn’t equate to Pollard keeping up his highly efficient ways of pre-2023 play.

Fantasy football outlook

In Tennessee, Pollard will be tasked with replacing one of the most popular players in franchise history. The Titans are a team in rebuild mode and will have a new starting quarterback and first-year head coach.

Pollard’s versatility helps keep him in the No. 2 conversation for PPR formats. The offensive line needs some help, quarterback Will Levis will endure his growing pains, and the aerial targets leave much to be desired. Unless Levis steps up in a significant way, Pollard may face tremendous defensive attention and replicate another low-efficiency season.