Fantasy team defenses – 2023 trends

Top-5 defenses are a small advantage – if you can get that pick right.

First, there is a current trend in fantasy football towards not using team defenses as a scoring position. It is, by and large, a notoriously difficult position to get right and the payoff is minimal at best when you do.  There are several reasons:

  • Defenses don’t really “do” anything, they just react to stop offenses.
  • Defenses benefit by just one or two superstar players, but more often their opponents try to avoid those talented defenders.
  • Most fantasy points – sacks, interceptions, safeties – occur on pass plays so opponents need to be forced to throw more.

So they are a reactive unit that varies depending on what their opponents are doing – that makes them hard to forecast for the week, let alone for the year.

The below table is sorted according to the Average Draft Position of team defenses this summer (2023). Certainly the top six are considered the difference-makers and are near locks to go first. After that, the order varies significantly. The table also shows how each defense has ranked over the last five years, along with how much experience/continuity that defense has with their defensive coordinator this season.

2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 DC Yrs Exp
SFO 1 2 16 19 2 30 New
PHI 2 4 14 10 16 31 New
DAL 3 3 1 18 26 23 2
NEP 4 1 2 15 1 12 4
BUF 5 6 4 9 8 21 6
BAL 6 7 25 4 7 3 1
JAC 7 5 32 28 23 15 1
KCC 8 13 9 12 5 9 4
NYJ 9 10 28 27 11 10 2
MIA 10 23 3 3 32 8 New
PIT 11 28 21 2 3 17 1
NOS 12 21 7 6 9 11 1
CIN 13 30 19 31 31 22 4
TBB 14 15 5 8 10 29 1
DEN 15 24 17 23 18 16 New
SEA 16 8 26 13 12 13 1
CLE 17 9 18 14 20 18 New
WAS 18 18 27 7 22 4 3
IND 19 22 6 5 13 6 1
LAC 20 14 24 25 29 20 New
GBP 21 11 10 20 17 19 2
DET 22 19 30 32 27 24 2
NYG 23 25 20 17 21 28 1
CAR 24 20 23 16 15 26 New
LAR 25 26 11 1 4 2 2
TEN 26 27 8 24 14 14 2
MIN 27 17 15 26 6 7 New
HOU 28 16 22 29 19 5 New
ATL 29 29 29 22 24 27 New
CHI 30 32 12 21 25 1 1
ARI 31 12 13 11 28 25 New
LVR 32 31 31 30 30 32 1

In case you’ve missed it, everyone pretty much just drafts defenses based off the prior year’s results.  So taking a step back to see how each defense actually does over time offers a interesting view. The Top-7 of 2022 are all the Top-7 in Average Draft Position for this year. That’s usually true every season.

Remember too, only the Top-5 really offer much advantage. Last year in Huddle standard scoring for defenses, the No. 6 team (BUF – 128 points) and the No. 20 team (CAR – 100 points) was only 28 points which averages 1.7 points per week. Which is also why team defenses are on the wane in fantasy football.

Notable too is that last season only three teams (DAL, NEP, BUF) repeated a Top-10 performance from the previous year. The Ravens bounced back from a down 2021 season when injuries ravaged the team, and the Jaguars shook off the nightmare of 2021 to roar back from No. 32 to No. 5 last year.

Picking through the results, there were other instances of a defense just having a bad year. There were several that logged just one good year in the most recent five. Perhaps the most amazing has been just how bad the Lions, Falcons, and Raiders have been with defensive fantasy points.

It is also interesting to see just how much turnover there is with defensive coordinators with only five that have been in their job for at least three years. That’s yet another challenge in evaluating defenses every summer.

But the top difference-makers are all that matters. Truly. Let’s take a look at how the first five defenses taken in the average draft fared. Here are the first five picks in each year, along with where they ended their season in fantasy points.

Picks 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
1 BUF LAR PIT CHI JAC
Actual 7 11 2 25 15
2 LAR WAS SF LAC LAR
Actual 26 27 19 29 2
3 DAL TB BAL LAR MIN
Actual 3 5 4 4 7
4 TB PIT BUF JAC PHI
Actual 25 21 9 23 31
5 SF BUF NE BAL LAC
Actual 2 4 15 7 20

There is always that one hot defense for the year that is taken, sometimes two full rounds before any other, that kicks off the position. The first three have a very strong consensus in most drafts and that one first pick is almost always expected to be “the one.”

There’s about a 50-50 chance of that “taken way too early” pick working out. Even then, only the Steelers in 2020 returned a Top-5 performance.  The rest did not offer much advantage at all, if not actually a disadvantage because you will continue to start that precious No. 1 drafted defense regardless of actual results.

The second pick has oddly been bad in each of the last four years, and mostly really, really bad. Every week you’re deciding if you need to cut your losses and go another route.

Most oddly of all, the No. 3 pick has been as golden as any in the last five years.

Conclusion

Look, if your fantasy league uses team defenses – and most do – then it is a scoring position that merits some attention to get right. Points are points. Maybe not a lot, and there is a reason why fantasy defenses usually wait for the end of the draft. That reason is much more sound than the one that leads to taking the first defense off the board two rounds too early.

“Really? Already?”

The position is a challenge to get right in fantasy. Continuity helps, which is why most of the top scoring defenses have the longest-tenured coordinator and scheme. Your chances of picking a defense that offers an advantage, however small, are greatly increased by taking a Top-5 and then not waiting long to get a second one.

If your roster can handle it, owning a second or even a third defense helps decide which one is the best bet and then gives you something to cut later on when acquiring free agents in other positions.

And the waiver wire is your friend, because at least two or three will far exceed expectations/draft slot every season. Waiting on the position and getting two Top-20 defenses probably won’t kill your team, but it will not help it and one of the beautiful parts of an early defense is that you don’t experience the frustration of trying to pick the right one every week.

Streaming defenses is an option, but only if there are enough viable options on the waiver wire. None of the top defenses are going to be there and they are the only ones that matter.

Fantasy football mock draft series: May takeaways

Is it too early to pick up on trends in fantasy football mock drafts?

It is mid-May, and fantasy football drafts are gaining steam. A recently hosted industry mock is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t select kickers or defensive teams), here are a few generalized observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.

  • In the 2021 iteration, every Round 1 pick was a running back, minus a lone receiver (Tyreek Hill) chosen at No. 11 overall. Last year, we saw seven running backs and five receivers, including Cooper Kupp going at No. 2. This time around, five receivers, including the first three picks, six running backs, and Travis Kelce went in the opening stanza.
  • Five RBs came off the board in Round 2 in 2021’s draft, which mostly consisted of receivers. Last year, a half-dozen backs, two tight ends, and a quartet of receivers made up the second. The most recent one featured eight receivers, three RBs, and TE Mark Andrews.
  • The 2021 draft’s first QB came off the board in late Round 4 (Patrick Mahomes), and Josh Allen was taken with the last pick of Round 5 in ’22. We saw Allen go 27th this year, while three more went in Round 3. Only four total passers went in the first 50 choices, whereas seven went in the same range last season.
  • In the first 100 picks of the 2021 draft, 9 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 10 TEs were taken. In last year’s version, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends — no drastic changes. This time around, however, 11 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 8 TEs were chosen. Drafters have been pretty consistent year over year in terms of positional distribution.
  • Running back atop the draft is a dicey bet this season. There are more uncertain situations that sure things, and it’s clear gamers are leaning heavily on elite wideouts in 2023. Factor that into your draft plans but be prepared to pivot as needed. Going with two receivers right off the top should set you up well to build a reliable stable of running backs in Rounds 3-6.
  • Quarterback remains quite deep, too, with a viable starter being available into the 13th round. Tight end remains a little top-heavy, just like the last few years. Following the consensus top-four TEs — all of whom went in the first six rounds — the position gets really dicey. If you’re not comfortable playing the matchups, make sure to secure one of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson or George Kittle. The next tier of TEs — Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz and Evan Engram — all come with significant concerns.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 6 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE
2nd: 3 RBs, 8 WRs, 1 TE
3rd: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 7 WRs
4th: 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 6 WRs
5th: 2 QBs, 5 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs
6th: 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE
7th: 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs
8th: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
9th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs
10th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE

My team

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:

1:06) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: He bounces between my WR2 and No. 3. If he and Matthew Stafford are healthy, there’s no reason Kupp won’t return on a No. 6 overall investment in PPR. A line of 120-1,500-12 is within reach.

2:07) WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets: Wilson was impressive as a rookie and now gets a massive upgrade at quarterback. He easily should be Aaron Rodgers‘ No. 1 target and is poised to take his game to a new level in Year 2.

3:06) RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: Henry isn’t an ideal RB1 in PPR, especially in his age-29 season, but he is the offense until proven otherwise. The line improved, and Ryan Tannehill returns, so hopefully there’s one last strong campaign in the tank.

4:07) RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Gibbs may not have a huge workload, though his receiving chops and David Montgomery‘s lackluster style could have him in the RB2 conversation sooner than later. The O-line is strong, and Gibbs’ efficiency is alluring.

5:06) RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I debated a WR here, but the uncertainty of Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry‘s age swayed me toward White’s dual-threat nature. It may not be pretty in terms of efficiency, but he’ll get the rock aplenty.

6:07) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence were my targets, so I pivoted to Evans as a solid WR3 consolation. Even with Baker Mayfield, Evans still has a shot at 1,000 yards and seven-plus TDs.

7:06) QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: Having missed out on my preferred QB targets, I’ll rely on Rodgers playing with a chip on his shoulder in his first season with the Jets. New York boasts plenty of weapons in a system Rodgers knows intimately.

8:07) WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints: I banked on Kadarius Toney and/or Chig Okonkwo making it back to me in Round 9, but both went right after this one. It all comes down to Thomas’ health, and he’s a fine WR4 gamble.

9:06) TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans: Since I missed out on Okonkwo, Schultz was a pleasant surprise to see here in PPR. While he may not be a prolific TD scorer, Houston’s QB situation and suspect WR corps means abundant volume.

10:07) RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans: I expect Spears to lock down the top backup job after Hassan Haskins failed to impress last year. Should Derrick Henry miss time, this handcuff is a do-all back with RB2 upside.

11:06) WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers: Doubs as my fifth receiver is well worth the risk associated with Jordan Love being a largely unknown commodity entering his first year as a starter. Green Bay’s No. 2 should be good for a 60-800-5 floor.

12:07) RB Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders: White’s RB2 competition is unimpressive. Purely a gamble on Josh Jacobs breaking down following a monster workload in 2022, White has at least weekly flex utility should the Alabama standout fall to injury.

13:06) QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Top-10 returns are in play if Tagovailoa can avoid getting his bell rung yet again. The weapons are prolific, and he’s a high-upside QB2 behind my starter, Aaron Rodgers.

14:07) WR Kyle Philips, Tennessee Titans: A total flier as my WR6, Philips’ ball skills and role from the slot intrigues me in PPR scoring formats. I can see a winding, uneven path to 50-plus catches and occasional lineup utility.


Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Bonus draft recap!

As part of the magazine mock draft participation agreement, we also took part in a non-PPR version. Here’s my team review for that one:

1:03) RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants: He has a high enough ceiling to finish as the RB1, and the passing game still isn’t strong enough to suggest Brian Daboll will be comfortable not leaning on Barkley. His 2022 workload is my only concern.

2:10) WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Philly is stacked, but the passing game goes through this man. He scored 11 times in 2022, and I won’t be surprised to see that increase as Jalen Hurts continues to grow as a passer.

3:03) RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: There are several backs who could cut into Stevenson’s overall volume, especially as a receiver, but he’s easily the top back around the stripe with Damien Harris gone. A dozen scores are within reach.

4:10) QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: I rarely draft a QB this early. But in non-PPR scoring, he’s basically another starting running back and still has a good shot at improving as a passer thanks to upgrades and maturation.

5:03) WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: I’m high on Jordan Love at least being above average. If that’s going to happen, Watson will be a top-24 fantasy option. His game makes him the best bet for leading Green Bay WRs in TDs.

6:10) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes, his QB situation stinks, but the track record and scoring prowess are strong enough to justify landing him as a No. 3. In Baker We Trust? At least enough for seven TDs to Evans!

7:03) RB Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders: I’m not particularly fond of Eric Bieniemy’s play calling, and Sam Howell makes me nerves. However, Robinson’s goal-line skills put him in play for double-digit scores, and he enters Year 2 healthy, unlike last summer.

8:10) WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills: Davis has flashed a number of times but has yet to put it together for a full season. Warts and all, a career rate of a TD every 5.9 grabs is tough to ignore in non-PPR.

9:03) TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans: Okonkwo has all of the tools necessary to shine, and the Titans’ lack of proven receiving outlets, coupled with the possibility of a rookie QB taking over, make him the No. 2 target behind Treylon Burks.

10:10) RB Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars: What’s there not to like about a running back named “Tank” in a TD-heavy format?!? Kidding aside, Travis Etienne isn’t built to shoulder a full load, and Bigsby is the best short-area back on the roster.

11:03) WR Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns: Touchdowns probably won’t be plentiful, though he scored five times in as many games to close out 2021. The quarterback situation is an upgrade in Cleveland vs. his past QBs, and this late he’s a fine WR5.

12:10) RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans: How many more years can Derrick Henry completely carry the offense? Spears would’ve been an early-round pick if not for two ACL tears. He’s a complete back with major upside in a run-based system.

13:03) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs: The veteran hasn’t scored much over the past two years, but he was a red-zone threat in 2022 and found paydirt 14 times in his first couple of seasons. He’s a steal this late.

14:10) QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Having two QBs with a Week 14 is irrelevant to me. Athletic and well-prepared, Love has weapons, a sound line, RBs to rely on, and offers QB1 potential. I like him for a mid-teens finish.

Fantasy Football: 10 utilization stats to know from Week 2

Here are the utilization stats you should know from Week 2 of the NFL season.

We now have a two-game sample size of fantasy football data to work with from the 2022 NFL season.

It’s still a relatively small sample size, but trends are starting.

Before you make any roster cuts or waiver claims for Week 3, here are 10 utilization notes to know following Week 2.

5 late-round RBs to target in fantasy football drafts

These players could make a difference at a cheap price.

Injuries happen. It’s just the nature of the NFL, and the fallout has ruined many a fantasy football season over the years. After all, there’s nothing quite like the sting of losing your first-round pick a month into the season. That’s the game, however, and it’s why finding good depth at the end of drafts is so vital. With that in mind, here are five running backs to consider in the later rounds.

Fantasy football draft prep: Breaking biases

Don’t get stuck in your ways of how you view players and situations in fantasy football.

All too often, advanced fantasy football gamers included, owners allow the past to dictate future draft plans through cognitive biases. Even full-time fantasy players need to remember from time to time that the game changes year over year and requires a press of the reset button.

In a sport where 11 constantly moving chess pieces work in harmony against a matching number of defenders trying to stifle any plans of a checkmate, all it takes is a small change to make a huge difference.

What are you waiting for?!? It’s time to get into The Huddle! Sign up today.

I’ve written a number of times about expectations and how we perceive players based on what we think they will do on the field, whether it be weekly or annually. All it takes is being slightly wrong in our view of a situation to see those projections fall apart. We cannot control injuries, and life throws extenuating circumstances into the mix, but recognizing our own biases about teams and players absolutely can be controlled.

Objectivity is arguably the most important element in creating a fantasy championship. Luck always factors in, and remaining on top of the news is thoroughly important as well. Just as being armed with a reliable set of rankings is pivotal, also the ability to check emotions and individual experiences at the door is paramount. A mental checklist of “dos and don’ts” should be on everyone’s brain as they prepare for a draft and evaluate talent.

Fantasy football PPR live draft review

A second PPR draft in mid-May showed a few different patterns emerge.

Much like with our May edition of the Mock Draft Series, out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t write up our final four), here are a few observations from an 18-round, 12-team, PPR draft.

  • This group was hyper-aggressive with selecting wide receivers early in the first round, especially atop the draft. Four of the first seven selections were wideouts, including Cooper Kupp going No. 3 overall. Detroit running back D’Andre Swift going 12th was the only thing close to a surprise in the opening round. Three tight ends and six receivers went in the second round. The rest were running backs.
  • The first QB came off the board was Josh Allen was taken with the fifth selection of Round 3, which is the earliest any quarterback has gone in the first three drafts of this series. Justin Herbert went with the final pick in Round 6, followed two spots later by Patrick Mahomes. Only Lamar Jackson (Pick 8:09) would go over the next 24 choices.
  • In the first 100 picks, 5 QBs, 42 RBs, 44 WRs and 9 TEs were taken. During the PPR draft a week prior, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 8 RBs, 4 WRs
2nd: 3 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 TEs
3rd: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs
4th: 6 RBs, 6 WRs
5th: 3 RBs, 8 WRs, 1 TE
6th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
7th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 6 WRs
8th: 1 QB, 6 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 TE
9th: 5 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 3 TEs
10th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE

My team

We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:

1:02) RB Austin Ekeler, Las Angeles Chargers: It came down to Derrick Henry being dominant one more time, Cooper Kupp as the safest pick here, or Ekeler remaining healthy. I was most concerned about not having a strong enough RB1 if I chose the wideout.

2:11) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Knowing the drafter at the turn had an elite RB and presuming WR-WR was in play, I went with Evans before another back. It played out as expected. Evans and Keenan Allen were the best remaining WR1s.

3:02) RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: I hoped Chubb would survive the turn, and my Round 2 decision paid off. Injuries and time-sharing concerns are real, but Chubb is a TD machine and gives me a legit RB1 as my second back.

4:11) WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders: The debate was McLaurin and Courtland Sutton, who went with the very next pick. McLaurin has proven to be mostly QB-proof and makes for a quality WR2, even with Carson Wentz under center.

5:02) RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots: Three drafts, three Harris selections … it’s not that I’m necessarily a huge fan, but he’s a tremendous RB3. Thanks to Harris’ scoring prowess, none of the remaining backs were definitively better options at this stage.

6:11) WR DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals: A strong draft start afforded this gamble. Hopkins will miss six games, sure, but he’s a borderline WR1 lock in PPR upon his return. It’s not too often you can plug that kind of talent into your WR3 slot.

7:02) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Securing my third-ranked passer in Round 7 ahead of the long end of my wait, Mahomes was tough to let pass. While the WR talent regressed, he makes players around him better and will be fine.

8:11) WR Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers: Lazard may emerge as the top fantasy receiver in Green Bay after the Davante Adams trade. It’s worth a late-round wager to find out. At a minimum, he’s adequate depth for me while Hopkins is out.

9:02) TE Austin Hooper, Tennessee Titans: I’m much higher on Hooper’s rebound than most, and since I tend to wait on TEs, this one was a no-brainer. Tennessee’s WR situation is shaky, at best, and Hooper is an ideal fit for the system.

10:11) WR Kenny Golladay, New York Giants: Can the talented Golladay stay on the field? His quarterback situation could hold him back, but I’m willing to bank on Brian Daboll getting the most out of Daniel Jones. The rest is up to Golladay.

11:02) RB Marlon Mack, Houston Texans: I should’ve taken Tyler Allgeier over Golladay. The rookie went at the turn, forcing a pivot to Mack. A whole lotta “meh,” but he has a chance, which is all one can ask for this late.

12:11) TE Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears: Kmet is one of my favorites for a breakout season, and the third-year tight end covers my backside if the Hooper gamble doesn’t pan out. There’s legit TE1 potential in Chicago’s new offense.

13:02) RB Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions: Since the Mack pick could go either way, a safe, reliable veteran was the target, and Williams fits the bill. Plus, D’Andre Swift has proven to be less than a model of health thus far.

14:11) WR Jamison Crowder, Buffalo Bills: In three years with Buffalo, Cole Beasley was a PPR powerhouse out of the slot, and Crowder should have little trouble assuming the role in this pass-heavy system. He provides excellent value-to-upside ratio.

Rounding out the draft: Arizona Cardinals RB Keaontay Ingram (Round 15), PK Daniel Carlson (Round 16), QB Jameis Winston (Round 17) and Miami Dolphins defense/special teams (Round 18).

Fantasy football mock draft series: May takeaways

Is it too early to pick up on trends in fantasy football mock drafts?

It is mid-May, and fantasy football drafts are gaining steam. A recently hosted industry mock is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t select kickers of defensive teams), here are a few generalized observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.

  • In last year’s iteration, every Round 1 pick was a running back, minus a lone receiver (Tyreek Hill) chosen at No. 11 overall. This time out, we saw seven running backs and five receivers, including Cooper Kupp going at No. 2.
  • Five RBs came off the board in Round 2 in 2021’s draft, which mostly consisted of receivers. This year, a half-dozen backs, two tight ends, and a quartet of receivers made up the second stanza.
  • The first QB came off the board in late Round 4 (Patrick Mahomes) last year, and Josh Allen was taken with the last pick of Round 5 this time around. Mahomes went second with the final selection of Round 6, followed by Justin Herbert in early Round 7. Five more went in the next 30 choices.
  • In the first 100 picks of last year’s draft, 9 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 10 TEs were taken. In this May’s version, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends — no drastic changes. It’s nice to see more owners waiting on quarterbacks, though.
  • Drafting in the top eight is a great situation this year. You’re bound to come away with a legit No. 1 running back. There’s enough depth at the position to either go with a pair in the opening two rounds or alternate between RB and WR in the first four rounds while still coming away with a strong nucleus.
  • This theme also was on full display in 2021 drafts. Taking consecutive receivers to close out Round 1 wasn’t the ideal strategy, but the plan was to test it out. The position is so ridiculously deep that gamers can hold off, making the preferred strategy is to come out of the first three rounds with a single receiver.
  • Quarterback remains quite deep, too, with a viable starter being available into the 12th round. Tight end remains a little top-heavy, just like last year. Following the consensus top-six TEs — all of whom went in the first five rounds — the position gets really dicey. If you’re not comfortable playing the matchups, make sure to secure one of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Darren Waller or Dalton Schultz.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 7 RBs, 5 WRs
2nd: 6 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs
3rd: 8 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE
4th: 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
5th: 1 QB, 1 RBs, 9 WRs, 1 TE
6th: 1 QB, 3 RBs, 8 WRs
7th: 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs
8th: 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
9th: 3 QBs, 6 RBs, 3 WRs
10th: 3 RBs, 7 WRs, 2 TEs

My team

We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:

1:12) Stefon Diggs: In PPR, his sheer volume alone makes up for the lack of scoring prowess. The Bills actually could lean on him even more this year if Gabriel Davis and Jamison Crowder don’t step up as much as expected.

2:01) Deebo Samuel: I’m not overly worried about the standoff, but Samuel’s aerial exploits may suffer with Trey Lance starting. Samuel also isn’t likely to rush nearly as much as a year ago. Talent usually wins out, however.

3:12) J.K. Dobbins: A WR-WR start was a mistake at No. 12. I should have drafted Leonard Fournette, Javonte Williams or D’Andre Swift instead of Deebo. Dobbins was injured early enough to be healthy, but he’s not an RB1.

4:01) Damien Harris: Choosing an early-down running back with heavy TD dependence isn’t how this was drawn up in PPR. Breece Hall was a consideration, but Harris is a safer RB2 candidate, and that’s what I needed here.

5:12) Josh Allen: Allen’s high ceiling can carry my weak RBs, and I love the Diggs stack. I usually wait on QBs; after seeing all of the value buys, I won’t give in to the temptation again.

6:01) Mike Williams: His all-or-nothing nature is not ideal, but Williams’ role in such a reliable, pass-friendly system makes for a rock-solid WR3 to help offset my shaky RBs. A WR14 finish again? No, but WR25-30 is fine.

7:12) Rashaad Penny: This is what happens when waiting to draft running backs … you start stockpiling risk-reward types at the most volatile position. Penny’s late surge last year was as real as his injury history and backfield competition.

8:01) DeAndre Hopkins: After waiting too long to draft my first running back (insert Deebo joke here), Hopkins presented an interesting flex gamble. Yes, he’ll miss six games, but Nuk’s volume will be a nice addition upon his return.

9:12) Tyler Allgeier: Another RB without a receiving role, Allgeier enters a decent situation for a TD-heavy role. Cordarrelle Patterson’s age-30 breakout won’t be repeated, although both QB options will steal TD opportunities from the rookie.

10:01) Michael Carter: Breece Hall should steal the show, but if he struggles or gets injured, Carter’s versatility will be a welcomed addition to lineups. This sort of high-upside depth is what to look for after a WR-WR start.

11:12) DeVante Parker: Why not? He’s far from a true WR1, but Parker has a reasonable shot to lead this mediocre passing attack in fantasy production. Parker’s biggest enemy, as usual, will be his own body failing him.

12:01) Austin Hooper: Hooper didn’t just forget how to catch once he signed with Cleveland, a team that totally misused his skills. A lack of weaponry for Ryan Tannehill — in a TE-friendly system — piques my interest.

13:12) Khalil Herbert: OC Luke Getsy comes from Green Bay and was no stranger to incorporating a 2-to-1 committee approach in which the RB2 gets enough volume to matter. Herbert did his part last year, so this is a worthy gamble.

14:01) Donovan Peoples-Jones: In Year 2, he took a significant step forward while catching passes from a battered Baker Mayfield. Deshaun Watson is a tremendous upgrade, and Amari Cooper helps draw defensive attention. DPJ is a steal this late.

Fantasy football mock draft series: August takeaways

A mock draft review from a recent August gathering of professionals.

The fantasy football mock draft review for August is here, and we get a great comparison to July, with 11 of the 12 drafters being the same in each one.

We previously analyzed May and June with a different team of participants. For privacy of the upcoming publication that will include this draft, all team names and participants have been omitted.

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Before getting into my individual picks, here are a few positional observations from this traditional 12-team, PPR draft.

  • Like in the June and July drafts, Patrick Mahomes was a third-round pick. He went 31st last month and 33rd in this draft. Mahomes and Josh Allen were the only two quarterbacks to go in the first four rounds in consecutive months, although we witnessed a pair of QBs come off the board in the first three picks of Round 5 of August’s draft. Eleven passers went in the first 100 picks last month. This time around, 10 QBs were chosen.
  • Nine of the Round 1 choices were running backs in both July and August. The position represented 14 of the first 24 chosen players — also the same as July. Among the first 100 picks, 38 running backs came off the board, down two from last month.
  • Wide receiver claimed 43 of the first 100 selections, also two fewer from July. Once again, among the 24 choices in Rounds 2 and 3, half went to the position.
  • Eight tight ends were chosen in the first 100 picks (Irv Smith Jr. was No. 101), and only two of them came off the board in the first 36 selections — a jump of seven spots for George Kittle (37th) in this draft.

Below is a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks from both the July and August drafts, including the change by round and overall.

June draft results Au draft results Change +/-
Rnd QB RB WR TE Rnd QB RB WR TE QB RB WR TE
1 0 9 2 1 1 0 9 2 1 0 0 0 0
2 0 5 6 1 2 0 5 6 1 0 0 0 0
3 1 5 6 0 3 1 4 7 0 0 -1 1 0
4 1 5 5 1 4 1 2 7 2 0 -3 2 1
5 2 2 8 0 5 2 6 4 0 0 4 -4 0
6 2 3 3 4 6 1 5 4 2 -1 2 1 -2
7 2 7 3 0 7 4 2 5 1 2 -5 2 1
8 2 3 6 1 8 1 4 5 2 -1 1 -1 1
9 3 4 4 1 9 1 4 5 2 -2 0 1 1
10 1 0 8 3 10 1 4 7 0 0 4 -1 -3
Total 14 43 51 12 Total 12 45 52 11 -2 2 1 -1

As you can see, the first two rounds were identical for positional distribution. The third round mostly was the same, but once we made our way into Round 4, running backs took a hit. It didn’t last long, though, with four more backs going in the fifth than the July version. Overall, the positional variation was negligible. Quarterbacks regressed slightly in favor of running backs — really nothing of consequence to glean on the whole. It suggests you can wait a little longer on QBs, if nothing else.

Round-by-round picks

# Pick Player Tm Pos Drafter # Pick Player Tm Pos Drafter
1 1.1 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB Team 1 97 9.1 Jaylen Waddle MIA WR Team 1
2 1.2 Dalvin Cook MIN RB Team 2 98 9.2 DeVante Parker MIA WR Team 2
3 1.3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB Team 3 99 9.3 Nyheim Hines IND RB Team 3
4 1.4 Derrick Henry TEN RB Team 4 100 9.4 Antonio Brown TB WR Team 4
5 1.5 Alvin Kamara NO RB Team 5 101 9.5 Irv Smith Jr. MIN TE Team 5
6 1.6 Saquon Barkley NYG RB Team 6 102 9.6 Gus Edwards BAL RB Team 6
7 1.7 Aaron Jones GB RB Team 7 103 9.7 Ronald Jones II TB RB Team 7
8 1.8 Travis Kelce KC TE Team 8 104 9.8 AJ Dillon GB RB Team 8
9 1.9 Jonathan Taylor IND RB Team 9 105 9.9 Dallas Goedert PHI TE Team 9
10 1.10 Austin Ekeler LAC RB Team 10 106 9.10 Curtis Samuel WAS WR Team 10
11 1.11 Davante Adams GB WR Team 11 107 9.11 Jarvis Landry CLE WR Team 11
12 1.12 Tyreek Hill KC WR Team 12 108 9.12 Matt Ryan ATL QB Team 12
13 2.1 Stefon Diggs BUF WR Team 12 109 10.1 Jamaal Williams DET RB Team 12
14 2.2 Joe Mixon CIN RB Team 11 110 10.2 Tony Pollard DAL RB Team 11
15 2.3 Nick Chubb CLE RB Team 10 111 10.3 Will Fuller MIA WR Team 10
16 2.4 Antonio Gibson WAS RB Team 9 112 10.4 Darnell Mooney CHI WR Team 9
17 2.5 Najee Harris PIT RB Team 8 113 10.5 Jalen Hurts PHI QB Team 8
18 2.6 D.K. Metcalf SEA WR Team 7 114 10.6 Marquise Brown BAL WR Team 7
19 2.7 DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR Team 6 115 10.7 Corey Davis NYJ WR Team 6
20 2.8 Calvin Ridley ATL WR Team 5 116 10.8 Phillip Lindsay HOU RB Team 5
21 2.9 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB Team 4 117 10.9 Laviska Shenault Jr. JAX WR Team 4
22 2.10 Darren Waller LV TE Team 3 118 10.10 Marvin Jones JAX WR Team 3
23 2.11 A.J. Brown TEN WR Team 2 119 10.11 Sterling Shepard NYG WR Team 2
24 2.12 Justin Jefferson MIN WR Team 1 120 10.12 David Johnson HOU RB Team 1
25 3.1 J.K. Dobbins BAL RB Team 1 121 11.1 Henry Ruggs III LV WR Team 1
26 3.2 Chris Carson SEA RB Team 2 122 11.2 Tevin Coleman NYJ RB Team 2
27 3.3 Miles Sanders PHI RB Team 3 123 11.3 Mike Williams LAC WR Team 3
28 3.4 Keenan Allen LAC WR Team 4 124 11.4 Kenyan Drake LV RB Team 4
29 3.5 Chris Godwin TB WR Team 5 125 11.5 Ryan Tannehill TEN QB Team 5
30 3.6 Terry McLaurin WAS WR Team 6 126 11.6 Chuba Hubbard CAR RB Team 6
31 3.7 Mike Evans TB WR Team 7 127 11.7 Cole Beasley BUF WR Team 7
32 3.8 CeeDee Lamb DAL WR Team 8 128 11.8 Elijah Moore NYJ WR Team 8
33 3.9 Patrick Mahomes KC QB Team 9 129 11.9 Tyler Higbee LAR TE Team 9
34 3.10 Allen Robinson CHI WR Team 10 130 11.10 J.D. McKissic WAS RB Team 10
35 3.11 Robert Woods LAR WR Team 11 131 11.11 Mecole Hardman KC WR Team 11
36 3.12 David Montgomery CHI RB Team 12 132 11.12 Joe Burrow CIN QB Team 12
37 4.1 George Kittle SF TE Team 12 133 12.1 Mike Gesicki MIA TE Team 12
38 4.2 Amari Cooper DAL WR Team 11 134 12.2 Trey Lance SF QB Team 11
39 4.3 Cooper Kupp LAR WR Team 10 135 12.3 Hunter Henry NE TE Team 10
40 4.4 Brandon Aiyuk SF WR Team 9 136 12.4 Kirk Cousins MIN QB Team 9
41 4.5 Tyler Lockett SEA WR Team 8 137 12.5 Justin Fields CHI QB Team 8
42 4.6 Josh Jacobs LV RB Team 7 138 12.6 Russell Gage ATL WR Team 7
43 4.7 Julio Jones TEN WR Team 6 139 12.7 Nelson Agholor NE WR Team 6
44 4.8 Josh Allen BUF QB Team 5 140 12.8 Los Angeles Rams LAR Def/ST Team 5
45 4.9 T.J. Hockenson DET TE Team 4 141 12.9 Trevor Lawrence JAX QB Team 4
46 4.10 Courtland Sutton DEN WR Team 3 142 12.10 T Y Hilton IND WR Team 3
47 4.11 D’Andre Swift DET RB Team 2 143 12.11 Latavius Murray NO RB Team 2
48 4.12 D.J. Moore CAR WR Team 1 144 12.12 Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB Team 1
49 5.1 Kyler Murray ARI QB Team 1 145 13.1 Evan Engram NYG TE Team 1
50 5.2 Kenny Golladay NYG WR Team 2 146 13.2 Jonnu Smith NE TE Team 2
51 5.3 Dak Prescott DAL QB Team 3 147 13.3 Derek Carr LV QB Team 3
52 5.4 Diontae Johnson PIT WR Team 4 148 13.4 Alexander Mattison MIN RB Team 4
53 5.5 Darrell Henderson LAR RB Team 5 149 13.5 Tre’Quan Smith NO WR Team 5
54 5.6 Chase Edmonds ARI RB Team 6 150 13.6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB Def/ST Team 6
55 5.7 Myles Gaskin MIA RB Team 7 151 13.7 Jared Cook LAC TE Team 7
56 5.8 Adam Thielen MIN WR Team 8 152 13.8 James White NE RB Team 8
57 5.9 Tee Higgins CIN WR Team 9 153 13.9 Christian Kirk ARI WR Team 9
58 5.10 Mike Davis ATL RB Team 10 154 13.10 Washington FB Team WAS Def/ST Team 10
59 5.11 Kareem Hunt CLE RB Team 11 155 13.11 Rashaad Penny SEA RB Team 11
60 5.12 Travis Etienne JAX RB Team 12 156 13.12 Justin Tucker BAL K Team 12
61 6.1 Javonte Williams DEN RB Team 12 157 14.1 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT Def/ST Team 12
62 6.2 Kyle Pitts ATL TE Team 11 158 14.2 Baltimore Ravens BAL Def/ST Team 11
63 6.3 Mark Andrews BAL TE Team 10 159 14.3 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB Team 10
64 6.4 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR Team 9 160 14.4 Boston Scott PHI RB Team 9
65 6.5 Chase Claypool PIT WR Team 8 161 14.5 Damien Williams CHI RB Team 8
66 6.6 Michael Thomas NO WR Team 7 162 14.6 Anthony Firkser TEN TE Team 7
67 6.7 James Robinson JAX RB Team 6 163 14.7 Harrison Butker KC K Team 6
68 6.8 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE WR Team 5 164 14.8 Jalen Reagor PHI WR Team 5
69 6.9 Trey Sermon SF RB Team 4 165 14.9 Javian Hawkins ATL RB Team 4
70 6.10 Damien Harris NE RB Team 3 166 14.10 Gerald Everett SEA TE Team 3
71 6.11 Russell Wilson SEA QB Team 2 167 14.11 Devontae Booker NYG RB Team 2
72 6.12 Michael Carter NYJ RB Team 1 168 14.12 San Francisco 49ers SF Def/ST Team 1
73 7.1 Deebo Samuel SF WR Team 1 169 15.1 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR Team 1
74 7.2 Noah Fant DEN TE Team 2 170 15.2 Tyler Bass BUF K Team 2
75 7.3 Brandin Cooks HOU WR Team 3 171 15.3 New England Patriots NE Def/ST Team 3
76 7.4 Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR Team 4 172 15.4 Buffalo Bills BUF Def/ST Team 4
77 7.5 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR Team 5 173 15.5 Adam Trautman NO TE Team 5
78 7.6 Aaron Rodgers GB QB Team 6 174 15.6 Emmanuel Sanders BUF WR Team 6
79 7.7 Lamar Jackson BAL QB Team 7 175 15.7 Younghoe Koo ATL K Team 7
80 7.8 Raheem Mostert SF RB Team 8 176 15.8 Indianapolis Colts IND Def/ST Team 8
81 7.9 Melvin Gordon DEN RB Team 9 177 15.9 Jason Sanders MIA K Team 9
82 7.10 Justin Herbert LAC QB Team 10 178 15.10 Ryan Succop TB K Team 10
83 7.11 Tom Brady TB QB Team 11 179 15.11 Sammy Watkins BAL WR Team 11
84 7.12 D.J. Chark JAX WR Team 12 180 15.12 Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB Team 12
85 8.1 DeVonta Smith PHI WR Team 12 181 16.1 Rondale Moore ARI WR Team 12
86 8.2 Zack Moss BUF RB Team 11 182 16.2 Greg Zuerlein DAL K Team 11
87 8.3 Robby Anderson CAR WR Team 10 183 16.3 Austin Hooper CLE TE Team 10
88 8.4 Michael Pittman Jr. IND WR Team 9 184 16.4 Kansas City Chiefs KC Def/ST Team 9
89 8.5 Tyler Boyd CIN WR Team 8 185 16.5 Matt Prater ARI K Team 8
90 8.6 Leonard Fournette TB RB Team 7 186 16.6 Miami Dolphins MIA Def/ST Team 7
91 8.7 Robert Tonyan GB TE Team 6 187 16.7 Deshaun Watson HOU QB Team 6
92 8.8 Devin Singletary BUF RB Team 5 188 16.8 Rodrigo Blankenship IND K Team 5
93 8.9 Matthew Stafford LAR QB Team 4 189 16.9 Daniel Carlson LV K Team 4
94 8.10 James Conner ARI RB Team 3 190 16.10 Joey Slye CAR K Team 3
95 8.11 Michael Gallup DAL WR Team 2 191 16.11 Denver Broncos DEN Def/ST Team 2
96 8.12 Logan Thomas WAS TE Team 1 192 16.12 Mason Crosby GB K Team 1

Results by position

Pos rank Pick Player Tm Pos Drafter Pos rank Pick Player Tm Pos Drafter
1 3.9 Patrick Mahomes KC QB Team 9 1 1.11 Davante Adams GB WR Team 11
2 4.8 Josh Allen BUF QB Team 5 2 1.12 Tyreek Hill KC WR Team 12
3 5.1 Kyler Murray ARI QB Team 1 3 2.1 Stefon Diggs BUF WR Team 12
4 5.3 Dak Prescott DAL QB Team 3 4 2.6 D.K. Metcalf SEA WR Team 7
5 6.11 Russell Wilson SEA QB Team 2 5 2.7 DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR Team 6
6 7.6 Aaron Rodgers GB QB Team 6 6 2.8 Calvin Ridley ATL WR Team 5
7 7.7 Lamar Jackson BAL QB Team 7 7 2.11 A.J. Brown TEN WR Team 2
8 7.10 Justin Herbert LAC QB Team 10 8 2.12 Justin Jefferson MIN WR Team 1
9 7.11 Tom Brady TB QB Team 11 9 3.4 Keenan Allen LAC WR Team 4
10 8.9 Matthew Stafford LAR QB Team 4 10 3.5 Chris Godwin TB WR Team 5
11 9.12 Matt Ryan ATL QB Team 12 11 3.6 Terry McLaurin WAS WR Team 6
12 10.5 Jalen Hurts PHI QB Team 8 12 3.7 Mike Evans TB WR Team 7
13 11.5 Ryan Tannehill TEN QB Team 5 13 3.8 CeeDee Lamb DAL WR Team 8
14 11.12 Joe Burrow CIN QB Team 12 14 3.10 Allen Robinson CHI WR Team 10
15 12.2 Trey Lance SF QB Team 11 15 3.11 Robert Woods LAR WR Team 11
16 12.4 Kirk Cousins MIN QB Team 9 16 4.2 Amari Cooper DAL WR Team 11
17 12.5 Justin Fields CHI QB Team 8 17 4.3 Cooper Kupp LAR WR Team 10
18 12.9 Trevor Lawrence JAX QB Team 4 18 4.4 Brandon Aiyuk SF WR Team 9
19 12.12 Tua Tagovailoa MIA QB Team 1 19 4.5 Tyler Lockett SEA WR Team 8
20 13.3 Derek Carr LV QB Team 3 20 4.7 Julio Jones TEN WR Team 6
21 14.3 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB Team 10 21 4.10 Courtland Sutton DEN WR Team 3
22 16.7 Deshaun Watson HOU QB Team 6 22 4.12 D.J. Moore CAR WR Team 1
1 1.1 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB Team 1 23 5.2 Kenny Golladay NYG WR Team 2
2 1.2 Dalvin Cook MIN RB Team 2 24 5.4 Diontae Johnson PIT WR Team 4
3 1.3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB Team 3 25 5.8 Adam Thielen MIN WR Team 8
4 1.4 Derrick Henry TEN RB Team 4 26 5.9 Tee Higgins CIN WR Team 9
5 1.5 Alvin Kamara NO RB Team 5 27 6.4 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR Team 9
6 1.6 Saquon Barkley NYG RB Team 6 28 6.5 Chase Claypool PIT WR Team 8
7 1.7 Aaron Jones GB RB Team 7 29 6.6 Michael Thomas NO WR Team 7
8 1.9 Jonathan Taylor IND RB Team 9 30 6.8 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE WR Team 5
9 1.10 Austin Ekeler LAC RB Team 10 31 7.1 Deebo Samuel SF WR Team 1
10 2.2 Joe Mixon CIN RB Team 11 32 7.3 Brandin Cooks HOU WR Team 3
11 2.3 Nick Chubb CLE RB Team 10 33 7.4 Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR Team 4
12 2.4 Antonio Gibson WAS RB Team 9 34 7.5 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR Team 5
13 2.5 Najee Harris PIT RB Team 8 35 7.12 D.J. Chark JAX WR Team 12
14 2.9 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB Team 4 36 8.1 DeVonta Smith PHI WR Team 12
15 3.1 J.K. Dobbins BAL RB Team 1 37 8.3 Robby Anderson CAR WR Team 10
16 3.2 Chris Carson SEA RB Team 2 38 8.4 Michael Pittman Jr. IND WR Team 9
17 3.3 Miles Sanders PHI RB Team 3 39 8.5 Tyler Boyd CIN WR Team 8
18 3.12 David Montgomery CHI RB Team 12 40 8.11 Michael Gallup DAL WR Team 2
19 4.6 Josh Jacobs LV RB Team 7 41 9.1 Jaylen Waddle MIA WR Team 1
20 4.11 D’Andre Swift DET RB Team 2 42 9.2 DeVante Parker MIA WR Team 2
21 5.5 Darrell Henderson LAR RB Team 5 43 9.4 Antonio Brown TB WR Team 4
22 5.6 Chase Edmonds ARI RB Team 6 44 9.10 Curtis Samuel WAS WR Team 10
23 5.7 Myles Gaskin MIA RB Team 7 45 9.11 Jarvis Landry CLE WR Team 11
24 5.10 Mike Davis ATL RB Team 10 46 10.3 Will Fuller MIA WR Team 10
25 5.11 Kareem Hunt CLE RB Team 11 47 10.4 Darnell Mooney CHI WR Team 9
26 5.12 Travis Etienne JAX RB Team 12 48 10.6 Marquise Brown BAL WR Team 7
27 6.1 Javonte Williams DEN RB Team 12 49 10.7 Corey Davis NYJ WR Team 6
28 6.7 James Robinson JAX RB Team 6 50 10.9 Laviska Shenault Jr. JAX WR Team 4
29 6.9 Trey Sermon SF RB Team 4 51 10.10 Marvin Jones JAX WR Team 3
30 6.10 Damien Harris NE RB Team 3 52 10.11 Sterling Shepard NYG WR Team 2
31 6.12 Michael Carter NYJ RB Team 1 53 11.1 Henry Ruggs III LV WR Team 1
32 7.8 Raheem Mostert SF RB Team 8 54 11.3 Mike Williams LAC WR Team 3
33 7.9 Melvin Gordon DEN RB Team 9 55 11.7 Cole Beasley BUF WR Team 7
34 8.2 Zack Moss BUF RB Team 11 56 11.8 Elijah Moore NYJ WR Team 8
35 8.6 Leonard Fournette TB RB Team 7 57 11.11 Mecole Hardman KC WR Team 11
36 8.8 Devin Singletary BUF RB Team 5 58 12.6 Russell Gage ATL WR Team 7
37 8.10 James Conner ARI RB Team 3 59 12.7 Nelson Agholor NE WR Team 6
38 9.3 Nyheim Hines IND RB Team 3 60 12.10 T Y Hilton IND WR Team 3
39 9.6 Gus Edwards BAL RB Team 6 61 13.5 Tre’Quan Smith NO WR Team 5
40 9.7 Ronald Jones II TB RB Team 7 62 13.9 Christian Kirk ARI WR Team 9
41 9.8 AJ Dillon GB RB Team 8 63 14.8 Jalen Reagor PHI WR Team 5
42 10.1 Jamaal Williams DET RB Team 12 64 15.1 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET WR Team 1
43 10.2 Tony Pollard DAL RB Team 11 65 15.6 Emmanuel Sanders BUF WR Team 6
44 10.8 Phillip Lindsay HOU RB Team 5 66 15.11 Sammy Watkins BAL WR Team 11
45 10.12 David Johnson HOU RB Team 1 67 16.1 Rondale Moore ARI WR Team 12
46 11.2 Tevin Coleman NYJ RB Team 2 1 13.12 Justin Tucker BAL K Team 12
47 11.4 Kenyan Drake LV RB Team 4 2 14.7 Harrison Butker KC K Team 6
48 11.6 Chuba Hubbard CAR RB Team 6 3 15.2 Tyler Bass BUF K Team 2
49 11.10 J.D. McKissic WAS RB Team 10 4 15.7 Younghoe Koo ATL K Team 7
50 12.11 Latavius Murray NO RB Team 2 5 15.9 Jason Sanders MIA K Team 9
51 13.4 Alexander Mattison MIN RB Team 4 6 15.10 Ryan Succop TB K Team 10
52 13.8 James White NE RB Team 8 7 16.2 Greg Zuerlein DAL K Team 11
53 13.11 Rashaad Penny SEA RB Team 11 8 16.5 Matt Prater ARI K Team 8
54 14.4 Boston Scott PHI RB Team 9 9 16.8 Rodrigo Blankenship IND K Team 5
55 14.5 Damien Williams CHI RB Team 8 10 16.9 Daniel Carlson LV K Team 4
56 14.9 Javian Hawkins ATL RB Team 4 11 16.10 Joey Slye CAR K Team 3
57 14.11 Devontae Booker NYG RB Team 2 12 16.12 Mason Crosby GB K Team 1
58 15.12 Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB Team 12 1 12.8 Los Angeles Rams LAR Def/ST Team 5
1 1.8 Travis Kelce KC TE Team 8 2 13.6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB Def/ST Team 6
2 2.10 Darren Waller LV TE Team 3 3 13.10 Washington FB Team WAS Def/ST Team 10
3 4.1 George Kittle SF TE Team 12 4 14.1 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT Def/ST Team 12
4 4.9 T.J. Hockenson DET TE Team 4 5 14.2 Baltimore Ravens BAL Def/ST Team 11
5 6.2 Kyle Pitts ATL TE Team 11 6 14.12 San Francisco 49ers SF Def/ST Team 1
6 6.3 Mark Andrews BAL TE Team 10 7 15.3 New England Patriots NE Def/ST Team 3
7 7.2 Noah Fant DEN TE Team 2 8 15.4 Buffalo Bills BUF Def/ST Team 4
8 8.7 Robert Tonyan GB TE Team 6 9 15.8 Indianapolis Colts IND Def/ST Team 8
9 8.12 Logan Thomas WAS TE Team 1 10 16.4 Kansas City Chiefs KC Def/ST Team 9
10 9.5 Irv Smith Jr. MIN TE Team 5 11 16.6 Miami Dolphins MIA Def/ST Team 7
11 9.9 Dallas Goedert PHI TE Team 9 12 16.11 Denver Broncos DEN Def/ST Team 2
12 11.9 Tyler Higbee LAR TE Team 9
13 12.1 Mike Gesicki MIA TE Team 12
14 12.3 Hunter Henry NE TE Team 10
15 13.1 Evan Engram NYG TE Team 1
16 13.2 Jonnu Smith NE TE Team 2
17 13.7 Jared Cook LAC TE Team 7
18 14.6 Anthony Firkser TEN TE Team 7
19 14.10 Gerald Everett SEA TE Team 3
20 15.5 Adam Trautman NO TE Team 5
21 16.3 Austin Hooper CLE TE Team 10

My team

1:04) RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: At No. 4, I was fully expecting to take Ezekiel Elliott, so King Henry was a pleasant surprise. He will see a significant statistical decline from last year’s ridiculous numbers, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t fully worthy of the No. 4 selection. It is, though, a reason why I went deeper at RB than usual in a draft of this size.

2:09) RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs: CEH was a darling last year and didn’t quite get it clicking as most had hoped to see. In 2021, with another year of learning and a more practical offseason program to aid his maturation, Edwards-Helaire has low-end RB1 upside. Nice value here, if I do say so myself.

3:04) WR Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers: Basically a lock to near 100 receptions, Allen is a PPR powerhouse and should once again thrive. Quarterback Justin Herbert has benefited from more time to polish his skills and knowledge of the game, making his top receiver a safe buy as my lead guy.

4:09) TE T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions: While Hockenson may have been a touch on the early side here, I wasn’t enamored with any of the options at wide receiver and was already off to a strong start at RB. I pivoted in a way not normal to my drafting preferences and chose the tight end — effectively Detroit’s No. 1 receiver — and decided to punt on the position the rest of the way.

5:04) WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: Landing Hock a round ago actually worked out pretty well. Johnson is an ascending talent in an offense that should keep him plenty busy underneath. He rarely will see double-teams, and I strongly believe we didn’t see his ceiling last year.

6:09) RB Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers: There is no running back I rather gamble on in 2021 drafts than the rookie. I’m not convinced Raheem Mostert will be even the “1a” of the backfield, and his durability concerns could make Sermon as close to a workhorse as possible in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

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7:04) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: I’ve been lukewarm on Chase’s draft placement much of the offseason, so this choice was a slight gamble on his chemistry with Joe Burrow. I have stability with Allen as my WR1 and a player whose weekly returns may wildly fluctuate with Johnson as my second. Chase could bring that “wow” factor to my receiving corps, although it means wideout depth must remain a focus over the next few rounds.

8:09) QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: The weaponry and system are in place for Stafford to be dominant. Even though Round 8 may be a hair on the early side for my usual QB-drafting tastes, I wasn’t going to miss out on him after nine other QBs had been chosen.

9:04) WR Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Still not terribly satisfied with my receivers and seeing a reasonable number of remaining RB4 targets on the board, AB is an intriguing risk-reward option. There’s clearly a chemistry between he and Tom Brady, and the veteran receiver was on pace for 90 grabs a year ago after having to come in cold from a lengthy layoff. I tend to prefer him in best-ball formats, but Brown would be a strong starter if something were to happen to Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.

10:09) WR Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: Shenault was debated when I took Brown in the last round, so even though I still felt the need to add running back depth, the calculated decision to wait on the position brought the second-year Jaguar onto my roster. I’m not crazy about DJ Chark Jr.’s durability at this point, and we saw enough from the versatile Shenault as a rookie to expect a notable leap in Year 2.

11:04) RB Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders: I was expecting one of Drake, Chuba Hubbard, J.D. McKissic and Latavius Murray to be available for me. All of them were waiting for me. While McKissic was ranked the highest on my board, Drake’s situation appealed more to me based on my roster composition. If (when?) Josh Jacobs gets hurt, I have a proven back in a run-heavy system getting thrust into a starting role. I love McKissic’s receiving chops, though he’s not going to be much more than that if Antonio Gibson were to miss time.

12:09) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Tua Tagovailoa and Ben Roethlisberger were the other targets here. It really was a coin flip between Big Ben and Lawrence, though. I feel pretty good about betting Lawrence will safely finish inside the top 15, which is probably Roethlisberger’s ceiling.

13:04) RB Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings: Even though I didn’t draft Dalvin Cook, seeing Mattison here this late made me excited about my RB5 — not something that usually happens in a competitive draft. All it takes is one significant injury to Minnesota’s workhorse and I have a weekly RB2 or better ready for deployment.

14:09) RB Javian Hawkins, Atlanta Falcons: Just as the July mock draft saw me take Hawkins, yet again I couldn’t pass on his upside in PPR. This time, I snagged him two rounds later and as my RB6 instead of fifth. Hawkins has enjoyed a productive offseason and will be in the mix.

Fantasy football draft prep: Breaking biases

Don’t get stuck in your ways of how you view players and situations in fantasy football.

All too often, advanced fantasy football gamers included, owners allow the past to dictate future draft plans through cognitive biases. Even full-time fantasy players need to remember from time to time that the game changes year over year and requires a press of the reset button.

In a sport where 11 constantly moving chess pieces work in harmony against a matching number of defenders trying to stifle any plans of a checkmate, all it takes is a small change to make a huge difference.

What are you waiting for?!? It’s time to get into The Huddle! Sign up today.

I’ve written a number of times about expectations and how we perceive players based on what we think they will do on the field, whether it be weekly or annually. All it takes is being slightly wrong in our view of a situation to see those projections fall apart. We cannot control injuries, and life throws extenuating circumstances into the mix, but recognizing our own biases about teams and players absolutely can be controlled.

Objectivity is arguably the most important element in creating a fantasy championship. Luck always factors in, and remaining on top of the news is thoroughly important as well. Just as being armed with a reliable set of rankings is pivotal, also the ability to check emotions and individual experiences at the door is paramount. A mental checklist of “dos and don’ts” should be on everyone’s brain as they prepare for a draft and evaluate talent.

What have you done for me lately?

Recency bias is a real thing. Fantasy owners get hung up on how well or poorly a player has done in relation to past ownership. We all have heard someone explain they chose a player because of familiarity and past success of rostering said player.

Some players are insanely consistent and productive, such as Antonio Brown was during his time in Pittsburgh. Until he wasn’t. Fantasy owners fall in love with successes of the past and unfairly avoid players with whom they have had negative experiences for nothing more than the memory of a bad outcome. Perfectly natural, but definitely avoidable.

Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler burned gamers last year but is poised to rebound. He was a PPR monster in 2019 when Melvin Gordon was injured but then fell on hard times with injuries of his own a season ago, which could have some gamers afraid to take a chance on him again. However, a look at the situation suggests a return to similar production from ’19, provided he says healthy. Sure, risk mitigation is at play, but there can be a fine line between avoiding pitfalls and creating your own out of hesitancy.

It reminds of the friend who won’t go to a specific restaurant because one time they had a bad meal. There are dozens of conceivable reasons why the meal wasn’t up to their liking, but applying a blanket rule based on one experience deprives the chance of redemption and satisfaction. Think about all of the instances in your life where something pleasantly surprised you after a sour experience. It is mainly due to you letting go of cognitive biases based on past results. And, if you buy/sell/eat/drink, etc. enough of anything, you’re bound to encounter a problem.

In fantasy, so many changes year over year must be factored into player valuation. A change in coaching staff, surrounding personnel, player health, refocused dedication, off-the-field lifestyle changes … you name it. Use the biases of others to your advantage.

It also works in the opposite direction. Take Saquon Barkley for example. No one doubts his freakish talent, but the reality is the last two years have been injury-marred disasters, and he’s still not ready for a normal workload to open the year. Tack on a shaky offensive line and a quarterback who appears to be regressing and we have even more reason to say maybe Barkley just isn’t a wise choice in 2021. He surely could come around as the year unfolds, but investing a top-20 pick in a guy who may give half a season of strong play requires so much else to go right in your draft.

Homer vs. anti-homer

No one should be a homer, and no one should excuse this foolish sabotage. Doh! There often is an argument against fantasy sports that it removes fandom and promotes individuals over teams. It does, and all who play the game should embrace it!

No where in your league rules does it state having a player on your favorite team is rewarded with extra fantasy points, and if you’re using homerism as an excuse to pay closer attention to your team, it’s time to find a new hobby. This includes you, person who says, “I always draft my team’s kicker or defense because it’s just a kicker or defense.” Wasted points are wasted points.

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The “anti-homer” is the person who refuses to draft anyone from a rival of their preferred NFL team. Ever meet the Green Bay Packers fan who never drafts anyone from the Chicago Bears or Minnesota Vikings? (Sorry, Detroit Lions fans, in Titletown that feeling is sympathy, not hatred.)

The unwillingness to roster players from an arch enemy is as bonkers as drafting players from your favorite squad for no other reason than they play for said opponent. Every single player who produces fantasy-worth stats warrants consideration in a draft. No one is totally off-limits at the right price … sometimes drafts don’t last long enough for the price to be right, however.

But they’re the <insert team here>

Cleveland Browns. Admit it … you were thinking the same thing out of habit. Let’s go with the Houston Texans this year.

Ever meet someone who is stuck in the past with all of their stories? After a while, you’ve heard … every … single … story … they have to tell. They aren’t bad people, but they have no forward gears in their transmission. Only neutral and reverse — and mostly the latter.

In fantasy terms, neutral is the present time. Without the ability to go forward, coupled with a penchant for looking backward, it becomes extremely difficult to see the “what could be” of any scenario. Apply this to perennial losers, or even teams that have fallen on hard times. It becomes far too easy for gamers to become dismissive of the mere potential a team or player could turn things around at the drop of a hat after years of substandard returns.

Those pesky labels

Use social media long enough and eventually you probably will be labeled something you are not. It’s an unofficial fact of life in 2019, and it also applies to fantasy sports. Players with injury history or off-field issues draw a label and generally cannot escape it. The thing is, though, most players do graduate beyond the genesis of the label.

Think back to Matthew Stafford’s third year in the NFL. He played only 13 contests in the prior to season and was widely called injury-prone — even a bust. Gamers stuck on that label probably passed him by in 2011 drafts, and he went on to throw 5,038 yards and 41 scores. A more recent example would be people who watched the 2019 New England offense and said Tom Brady was “washed up” and ready for the pasture.

I suffered from this myself last year with Stefon Diggs. Previously to being traded to Buffalo, he was wildly inconsistent and would produce the vast majority of his points in a few short spurts scattered throughout the season each year. Until he didn’t and was an unbelievably consistent receiver.

You hopefully get the point. As simplistic as it is, someone is perceived as something until they are not.

Accountability is the key

Be objective. Be honest with yourself. Admit error.

The main lesson is to adopt a healthy skepticism and challenge the opinions you have formulated. Question if your belief is founded in fact over opinion. And even sometimes when it is based on factual data — like with the Diggs example — don’t let what has happened override your ability to see what could happen.

Be willing to understand your notion of a player can be misguided, and allow their change of circumstances to prove you wrong. When you identify a clear example of your error, own it and learn how to grow from the mistake or blind spot.

For as cliche and unprofound as it sounds, every fantasy owner can use the reminder that all good — and bad — things come to an end, one way or another.

Fantasy football draft prep: When to take a quarterback

What is the best strategy for selecting a quarterback?

It’s not a question. It is a directive.

There are many ways to address the selection of your first quarterback in a fantasy football draft, but there also is the best way to do it.

And that is waiting on the position.

Time after time, inexperienced players draft a quarterback too early, or they draft two stud quarterbacks. These inexcusable errors at least make sense … the name value is what jumps out at people. It’s a quarterback-driven league, and most casual gamers recognize the top passers over lesser known running backs and receivers.

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This is not to say it is impossible to win drafting an early-round quarterback. It definitely is doable, but that pick, along with all of the other core positional choices in the first half of the draft need to be on the mark. That rarely happens for a novice player.

Recent trends

Looking back at the last five years, the table below illustrates how the first five drafted quarterbacks, in terms of ADP, fared in relation to their fantasy ranking at that season’s end.

The “fantasy ranking” columns represent where in the order the player finished and is then correlated to his respective draft placement. For example, the first quarterback chosen each of the past five seasons has not finished as QB1. Or QB2. Not even QB3. Twice as many finished as fantasy backups as they did even being within in the top six quarterbacks.

The results were substantially better for the second quarterback chosen, but the third player picked barely qualified as as starting fantasy passer.

The median finish for the first chosen QB was 10th, whereas the fifth quarterback drafted finished as the median QB2. Each one of the five were better than QB10. Among the 60 quarterbacks selected in the top 12 over the past five seasons, 38 percent finished the year as backups in fantasy points generated. That said, 35 percent ended up as solid QB1s, finishing in the top six at the position.

  • The first quarterback was drafted at an average of 25th overall in the past five years.
  • Eight of the 10 quarterbacks chosen between Rounds 6 and 7 turned out to be fantasy starters, proving to be the sweet spot in recent times.
  • Twenty-one of 30 QBs drafted in the first half of perceived starters proved to be top-12 quarterbacks.
  • Sixteen of the 30 QBs drafted in the back half of perceived starters proved to be top-12 passers.

Those final two points tell an interesting tale. Quarterbacks drafted inside of the top six players at the position per ADP more frequently finished as starters, showing gamers tend to get the names right, but not necessarily in the correct order. Twenty-three percent of those picks fell within the tier of QB10-12 in actual results. But a drafter is 1.5 times more likely to pick a top-three QB in ADP and get a QB10 or worse than a QB9 or better.

The takeaway from the final bullet should be waiting gives nearly a coin flip odds that the player will finish in the top nine at his position. Granted, the same 47 percent were backups, but this should be a lesson in perceived vs. relative value. Waiting longer offers a better chance to pick up value elsewhere and mitigate inflated risk of blowing it in the early rounds.

Furthermore, any quarterback drafted between the QB10-12 slots often is chosen with greatly depreciated expectations of being a plug-n-play starter. If a QB is chosen as the QB10 and finishes QB15, big whoop … this is far less punitive than choosing a player at QB2 and getting a QB7. We’re talking some 70 picks elapsed in between, whereas only 29 picks separate 10 and 15, on average.

Median
fantasy
rank
ADP Order
drafted
Fantasy
ranking
Percentage of
fantasy ranking
1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 13+ 1-3 4-6 7-9 10-12 13+
QB10 25 1st 0 1 1 1 2 0% 20% 20% 20% 40%
QB5 35 2nd 2 2 0 1 0 40% 40% 0% 20% 0%
QB11 61 3rd 0 0 0 4 1 0% 0% 0% 80% 20%
QB10 70 4th 0 2 0 1 2 0% 40% 20% 20% 40%
QB2 77 5th 3 1 1 0 0 60% 20% 20% 0% 0%
QB1-3 2 3 1 6 3 13% 20% 7% 40% 20%
QB4-6 3 4 1 1 6 20% 27% 7% 7% 40%
QB7-9 0 3 4 2 6 0% 20% 27% 13% 40%
QB10-12 5 1 1 0 8 33% 7% 7% 0% 53%
Summary 10 11 7 9 23 17% 18% 12% 15% 38%

Looking at it from a different perspective, what is the “return on investment” (ROI) for early-, mid-, and late-round quarterbacks?

Order
drafted
ADP Median
fantasy rank
Fantasy
ROI
Order
drafted
ADP Median
fantasy rank
Fantasy
ROI
1 25 10 -9 12 117 13 -1
2 35 5 -3 13 121 7 6
3 61 11 -8 14 127 10 4
4 70 10 -6 15 129 7 8
5 77 2 3 16 134 13 3
6 83 19 -13 17 145 12 5
7 87 17 -10 18 149 19 -1
8 94 14 -6 19 153 18 1
9 99 4 5 20 163 9 11
10 102 20 -10 21 171 25 -4
11 111 6 5

This data from the same time period shows the top four quarterbacks by ADP actually returned negatively on investment. Only three of the top 12 quarterbacks per ADP even turned a fantasy profit. Between QB13-21 selected, seven of the nine paid dividends. In a nutshell, the majority of quarterbacks drafted after Round 8 lived up to and/or exceeded expectations. Only 12.5 percent of QBs chosen before that exceeded their perceived value.

Now this isn’t a perfect way of evaluating the situation, because injuries cannot be predicted. It is a sound baseline to depict that early-round quarterbacks generate a greater loss on profit potential. Again, none of this is saying you cannot win your league with an top-three quarterback, but it does mean your other picks must be more accurate.

QB1-3 produced an average of -7 ROI
QB4-6 produced an average of -5 ROI
QB7-9 produced an average of -4 ROI
QB10-12 produced an average of -2 ROI
QB13-15 produced an average of +6 ROI
QB16-18 produced an average of +2 ROI
QB19-21 produced an average of +3 ROI

To be fair, the bar is lower for anyone drafted as a perceived backup, and the trends show the later the player is chosen, the less likely they are to return QB1 results. There’s a middle ground to be understood. If the QB13 gains an average of six spots in actual results, he is a QB7 — nice win for fantasy value. If he’s a QB3 and finishes as a QB10, while he is indeed a top-10 fantasy quarterback, gamers need to recognize the loss they experience in profit from other positions between those 60 average draft spots in between those specific placements. Sensing a theme?

Two-quarterback leagues

This format radically changes the valuation of the position. A good rule of thumb is taking your first quarterback target in the two rounds and then coming back for a second in the next four rounds.

Presuming the league is a 12-teamer, you have 24 quarterbacks being used each week. It’s improbable to find 24 NFL starting quarterbacks worthy of a typical fantasy play on a given week, so there’s often “plug your nose” decisions to be made if you indeed wait it out to the latter stages before securing your No. 2 and 3 passers.

2021 prediction for traditional leagues

Which quarterbacks should meet or exceed their draft placement in 2021?

No. Name Team ADP
1 Pat Mahomes KC 2.09
2 Josh Allen BUF 3.12
3 Kyler Murray ARI 4.06
4 Lamar Jackson BAL 5.01
5 Dak Prescott DAL 5.07
6 Justin Herbert LAC 6.01
7 Aaron Rodgers GB 6.03
8 Russell Wilson SEA 6.09
9 Tom Brady TB 7.06
10 Matthew Stafford LAR 7.12
11 Jalen Hurts PHI 8.11
12 Ryan Tannehill TEN 8.12
13 Joe Burrow CIN 9.08
14 Matt Ryan ATL 10.11
15 Trevor Lawrence JAX 11.03
16 Deshaun Watson HOU 11.06
17 Baker Mayfield CLE 11.12
18 Trey Lance SF 12.1
19 Kirk Cousins MIN 13.02
20 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 13.11
21 Justin Fields CHI 14.02
22 Jameis Winston NO 14.07
23 Ryan Fitzpatrick WAS 14.07
24 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 14.08
25 Cam Newton NE 14.09
26 Derek Carr LV 14.11

The players highlighted in green stand the best chance of substantially exceeding their draft placement. One can argue until the end of time over which players in what order and why, so understand this is an exercise in identifying profit potential and not a rule. It’s not saying QB26 Derek Carr will outplay QB2 Josh Allen. It’s saying Josh Allen has to outplay all other QBs not named Patrick Mahomes to live up to the investment. It is more likely Carr plays like, oh, say, QB16 (spot starter) than QB26 (likely remains on waivers all year) is all.

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The most important take away from this year’s review of ADP vs. projected results is that fantasy footballers must realize the drop-off in statistical returns is so small. The difference typically is the elite fantasy players post more huge games, while the low-end starters often plod along with serviceable but unsexy results.

Look at it like this … the average loss in fantasy points per game from QB1-3 to QB4-6 last year was 1.1 points per game. From QB4-6 to QB7-9 was 2.2 point per contest, and following that trend downward is an average loss of only 1.7 points from the last grouping of starting QBs to the previous tier. From QB1-3 to QB10-12 is only 3.9 fantasy points, on average. Odds are you’ll be able to make that up, especially in PPR leagues, at running back, receiver and tight end by waiting on quarterback.