UNLV Rebels Fell to Boise State 44-20 in Mountain West Championship

The UNLV Rebels hosted the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Conference Championship

The UNLV Rebels hosted the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Conference Championship. There were 31,473 fans in attendance, but that did not matter to the Broncos as they beat the Rebels 44-20.

The early part of the game was a back-and-forth, and both teams scored 14 points in the first quarter. UNLV’s touchdowns came on a five-yard rush from Vincent Davis Jr. and then a thrilling 47-yard interception return by linebacker Fred Thompkins to even things up.

However, Boise State converted two Rebel turnovers into 10 points en route to taking a 31-17 halftime lead, limiting the hosts to three points after the break, and never looking back after that, outscoring UNLV 13-3 in the second half.

Unable to Stop the Run

The Rebels’ run defense could not stop the Broncos rushing attack, as they rushed for 301 yards. Ashton Jeanty led Boise State with 153 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown. George Holani added 76 yards, along with quarterback Taylen Green rushing for 90 yards and two touchdowns. One of Green’s touchdowns was a 70-yard run. It is hard to win games, giving up 301 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry.

Turnovers

Rebels quarterback Jayden Maiava had a tough day at the office, turning the ball over three times (two interceptions and a loss fumble). He passed for 166 yards but threw no touchdowns.

Unable to Run the Ball

It was a tough day for the Rebels as the Broncos took away their rushing attack. UNLV rushed for 81 yards on 28 rush attempts, which is suitable for 2.9 yards per carry. Vincent Davis Jr. led the team in rushing with 55 yards and a touchdown.

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Ultimately, the Broncos had an old-school football mentality: run the ball and stop the run, and they executed it well. They also had efficient quarterback play, while Green only threw 15 times; he did complete 12 of those attempts. Green also threw two touchdown passes.

PODCAST: Mountain West Football Recap, Boise State Tops UNLV

PODCAST: Mountain West Football Recap, Boise State Tops UNLV Plus some coaching news Contact/Follow @MWCwire Broncos get the job done Jeremy and Josh are back to recap the 2023 Mountain West football championship which saw Boise State dominate UNLV, …

PODCAST: Mountain West Football Recap, Boise State Tops UNLV


Plus some coaching news


Contact/Follow @MWCwire

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Broncos get the job done

Jeremy and Josh are back to recap the 2023 Mountain West football championship which saw Boise State dominate UNLV, 44-20. They also get into the latest coaching news and if the Rebels will be keeping Barry Odom for another year in 2024.

Colorado State is not bowl eligible after its loss to Hawaii, there is a firing in New Mexico, and Fresno State keeps free falling.

The two also get into the latest on the coaching news in the Mountain West.

You can find the Mountain West Wire podcast below or subscribe to the show via TuneInSpotifyiTunes, and more. Listen in, subscribe and rate it and let us know what you think!

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How To Watch Mountain West Title Game Between UNLV, Boise State

How To Watch Mountain West Title Game Between UNLV, Boise State Game day is here for Rebels vs. Broncos Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire Get to big boy FOX The game is here and it’s in Sin City with the UNLV Rebels hosting the Boise State Broncos in a …

How To Watch Mountain West Title Game Between UNLV, Boise State


Game day is here for Rebels vs. Broncos


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Get to big boy FOX

The game is here and it’s in Sin City with the UNLV Rebels hosting the Boise State Broncos in a matchup featuring a newbie going against a team that has been to multiple title games.

2023 Mountain West Football Championship: The Ten Most Important Players, Ranked

2023 MOUNTAIN WEST FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP: Boise State Broncos (7-5, 6-2 Mountain West) vs. UNLV Rebels (9-3, 6-2 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, December 2nd — 1:00 p.m. MST / 12:00 p.m. PST

WHERE: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: FOX

STREAM: FuboTV – Get a free trial

SERIES RECORD: This will be the 12th all-time matchup between the two schools. Boise State leads the series 8-3. The Rebels have lost the last six meetings.

WEBSITES: BroncoSports.com | UNLVRebels.com

ODDS: Boise State -3

SP+ PROJECTION: UNLV by 1.0

FEI PROJECTION: Even

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: UNLV 53.87% win probability (29.92-19.79)

The UNLV season is turning out to possibly be one of their best ever and a conference title would give them double-digit wins in school history (the 1984 season had all of its 11 wins ruled as forfeits due to using academically ineligible players.)

This team has done it all by changing quarterbacks from an injured Doug Brumfield to finding a gem in Jayden Maiava who became freshman of the year. First year head coach Barry Odom took what Marcus Arroyo built and turned it into a championship team.

Boise State Gives UNLV Bulletin Board Material

In addition to Maiava being a key player for the Rebels, here is a blurb of what our own Matthew Kenerly had to say about the UNLV QB and also WR Ricky White in his top 10 most important players.

5. UNLV wide receiver Ricky White

When the Rebels have needed a big play this year, White has been the one to deliver it most often throughout 2023. This has been especially true in recent weeks: His 29 receptions in November were the second-most in the Mountain West, but his 589 receiving yards, collected as part of an ongoing five-game streak of 100-plus yards, were the most anywhere in the country.

2. UNLV quarterback Jayden Maiava

Maiava’s emergence as the 2023 season unfolded was one of the Mountain West’s most unexpected narratives, and his play down the stretch has been something to behold: Since the start of November, the Las Vegas native leads the conference in averaging 261.8 passing yards per game and is tied for first with seven touchdowns against just two interceptions. He’s only averaged 25 attempts in the last four games, but he’s made them count more than just about anyone else around.

As for Boise State, the most important player is explosive running back Ashton Jeanty and it is not even close. If he doesn’t have a big game then it is hard to see the Broncos winning the conference championship.

1. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty

No surprises here. It’s not that the Broncos missed him much when was sidelined for two games with injury, but they didn’t waste much time re-establishing the super sophomore as the offense’s centerpiece once he was healthy again: He earned eight yards per play on 13 touches against Utah State, then exploded for over 100 rushing and receiving yards in the victory over Air Force.

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Boise State Gives UNLV Bulletin Board Material

Boise State Gives UNLV Bulletin Board Material Oh boy, this got interesting Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire Let the trash talk begin The Mountain West title game features a familiar team in Boise State facing off against UNLV at Las Vegas. The game …

Boise State Gives UNLV Bulletin Board Material


Oh boy, this got interesting


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Let the trash talk begin

The Mountain West title game features a familiar team in Boise State facing off against UNLV at Las Vegas.

The game has a lot of storylines with Spencer Danielson who is interim coach for Boise State who could be the permanent coach. UNLV is in its first-ever Mountain West title game and could earn that elusive football conference title since joining this league.

The game is expected to be a close one as the line has hovered around a two- or three-point line in favor of a road Boise State.

The latest intrigue comes from the Boise State football game notes to provide some bulletin board material for UNLV with a jab towards the Rebels’ football history that includes forfeiture of games back from their 1984 season and more jabs.

This was pointed out that Boise State has been doing these things in-game notes, but the first we noticed (we apologize to the Broncos staff who writes these things).

Here are a few highlights.

  • Despite all the glitz and glamour in Sin City, all that glitters is not necessarily gold for the Rebels. UNLV enters this week looking to win its second conference championship ever and first since 1994.
  • If you think we’re forgetting something, we are certainly not. Yes, UNLV won the Pacific Coast Athletic Conference in 1984 but later had to forfeit the title due to using ineligible players. No, that team was not coached by Jerry Tarkanian.
  • While he’s still barely into his (likely) long tenure at UNLV, Odom is already achieving one notable feat. With a 9-3 record, he is the first UNLV head coach to have a winning percentage in his tenure since Tony Knap posted a .696 mark (47-20-2) from 1976-81. We don’t blame UNLV for hiring a Boise State coach to
    find someone who knows how to win.
  • UNLV was originally founded in 1959 as a southern regional extension division of the University of Nevada. When it initially began operations, it used a classroom at Las Vegas High School. The moral of this story is no one should look disapprovingly upon Boise State’s history as a junior college.
  • The university’s endowment is $367.6 million. While that may be about double Boise State’s endowment, we’re pretty sure some former university president got lucky and rolled a seven to double that number.
  • UNLV’s basketball team is known as the Runnin’ Rebels while all other programs are just known as the
    Rebels. Knowing that important fact, we now expect UNLV to live up to its nickname and pass on every
    down on Saturday.

These comments fall into three categories: Bulletin board material for UNLV fans, genius comedy for Boise State fans, and the rest find this amusing and maybe even a little mean.

For UNLV players and fans, this has to add a little bit of extra motivation. As for the rest of us, we should be checking out the Broncos game notes going forward.

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2023 Mountain West Football Picks, Predictions, Players To Watch

2023 Mountain West Football Picks, Predictions, Players To Watch Staff predictions and a whole lot more. Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire Picks, predictions, and some boldness The 2023 Mountain West title game is here with Boise State traveling to …

2023 Mountain West Football Picks, Predictions, Players To Watch


Staff predictions and a whole lot more.


Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire

Picks, predictions, and some boldness

The 2023 Mountain West title game is here with Boise State traveling to UNLV this Saturday afternoon with a 12 p.m. local and 3 p.m. ET kick on FOX.

Our staff made a lot of predictions on the outcome, the betting line, MVP, and some nonsense.

The game is Boise State at UNLV (+2) O/U: 58.5 (These lines were as of Wednesday, so they may have changed)

Winner ATS:

Jeremy: Boise State

Matt K.: UNLV

Brandon: Boise State

Josh F: Boise State

Phil: UNLV

Tj: UNLV

Erik: Boise State

Michael: UNLV

LaMarr: UNLV

Collin: Boise State

Mountain West Championship Game: Keys For A Boise State Victory

Winner Straight Up:

Jeremy: Boise State

Matt K.: UNLV

Brandon: Boise State

Josh F: Boise State

Phil: UNLV

TJ: UNLV

Erik: Boise State

Michael: UNLV

LaMarr: UNLV

Collin: Boise State

UNLV vs. Boise State: How The Rebels Can Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

Over/Under:

Jeremy: Over

Matt K.: Under

Brandon: Over

Josh F: Under

Phil: Over

TJ: Over 

Erik: Over

Michael: Over

LaMarr: Under

Collin: Under

PODCAST: Mountain West Championship Game Preview

Score Prediction:

Jeremy: Boise State 34, UNLV 28

Matt K.: UNLV 31, Boise State 27

Brandon: Boise State 35 UNLV 31

Josh F: Boise State 27 UNLV 21

Phil: UNLV 34, Boise State 31

TJ: UNLV 38, Boise State 31

Erik: Boise State 36, UNLV 24

Michael: UNLV 41, Boise State 36

LaMarr: UNLV 27, Boise State 24

Collin: Boise State 34, UNLV 20

2023 Mountain West Football Championship: The Ten Most Important Players, Ranked

Offensive MVP:

Jeremy: Boise State, RB, Ashton Jeanty

Matt K.: UNLV, QB, Jayden Maiava

Brandon: Boise State, RB, Ashton Jeanty

Josh F: Boise State, RB, George Holani

Phil: UNLV, QB, Jayden Maiava

TJ: Ricky White

Erik: Boise State, RB, Ashton Jeanty

Michael: UNLV QB, Jayden Maiava

LaMarr: UNLV, WR, Ricky White

Collin: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Ashton Jeanty

2023 Mountain West Football Championship: Eight Statistics That Could Decide The Game

Defensive MVP:

Jeremy: Boise State, DE, Ahmed Hassanein

Matt K.: UNLV, LB, Jackson Woodard

Brandon: Boise State, LB, Andrew Simpson

Josh F: Boise State, DE, Ahmed Hassanein

Phil: Boise State, DE, Ahmed Hassanein

TJ: UNLV, DB, Jaxen Turner

Erik: Boise State, DE, Ahmed Hassanein

Michael: UNLV: Jackson Woodard

LaMarr: UNLV: Jackson Woodard

Collin: Boise State, DJ Schramm

Under the radar player who makes an impact:

Jeremy: Boise State, CB, A’Marion McCoy

Matt K.: UNLV, LB, Marsel McDuffie

Brandon: Boise State, LB, DJ Schramm

Josh F: Boise State, WR, Stefan Cobbs

Phil: Boise State, WR, Stefan Cobbs

TJ: UNLV, DB, Cameron Oliver

Erik: Boise State, WR, Prince Strachan

LaMarr:  WR Jacob De Jesus

Collin: Boise State, DL Braxton Fely

One wild prediction:

Jeremy: There will be a trick play that goes horribly wrong and results in a turnover.

Matt K.: Jai’Den Thomas will the game’s longest play from scrimmage.

Brandon: UNLV will run a fake punt that will result in a touchdown

Josh F: 5+ Combined Turnovers

Phil: 28 unanswered points by UNLV

Erik: An offensive/defensive lineman will score a touchdown 

Michael: 50-plus-yard passing touchdown

TJ: UNLV wins off a Hail Mary

LaMarr: Jayden Maiava throws for 400 yards

Collin: there will be a special teams touchdown and a kick blocked.

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Mountain West Championship Game: Keys For A Boise State Victory

Mountain West Championship Game: Keys For A Boise State Victory Can the Broncos win with an interim coach? Follow @MWCwire Boise State travels to UNLV WEEK 12: Boise State Broncos (7-5, 6-2 MW) vs. UNLV Rebels (9-3, 6-2 MW) WHEN: Saturday, December …

Mountain West Championship Game: Keys For A Boise State Victory


Can the Broncos win with an interim coach?


Follow @MWCwire

Boise State travels to UNLV

WEEK 12: Boise State Broncos (7-5, 6-2 MW) vs. UNLV Rebels (9-3, 6-2 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, December 2nd – 1:00 PM MT/12:00 PM PT

WHERE: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: FOX

STREAM: FuboTV — get a free trial

RADIO: The Boise State broadcast can be found on KBOI 670 AM / KTIK 93.1 FM in the Boise area. 

SERIES RECORD: Boise State leads the all-time series 8-3, including a 38-13 victory in 2019  in Las Vegas. UNLV’s last win was in Las Vegas in 1976, 31-26.

LAST GAME: Boise State beat Air Force 27-19, while UNLV lost to San Jose State 37-31
ODDS: Boise State -2.5

SP+ PROJECTION: UNLV by 1.0

FEI PROJECTION: Even

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: UNLV 53.87% win probability (29.92-19.79)

When this season kicked off, most that covered college football had Boise State picked to be in the conference championship game. Very few, if any, had UNLV as their opponent and hosting the game. If you look back to just four weeks ago, it looked to be Fresno State’s for the taking after defeating Boise State and UNLV in back-to-back weeks and leaving Boise State reeling as the goal shifted from a championship to hopefully being above .500. 

UNLV responded by rolling New Mexico and Wyoming, coming back to beat Air Force, before falling to SJSU in the final week of the season.  Boise State beat New Mexico and Air Force while taking it to Utah State in that stretch.  Oh, and the Broncos fired Andy Avalos after the New Mexico win in a surprise move for Athletic Director Jeremiah Dickey. Interim Coach Spencer Danielson looks to be the first interim coach to win a conference title game in NCAA history.

Keys To Victory

Dance With Who Brought You

With running backs like Ashton Jeanty and George Holani, as well as the mobility of QB Taylen Green, the Broncos had the second-best rushing offense in the Mountain West this season behind Air Force.

Jeanty won the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year with 1,113 yards and 13 touchdowns, in addition to 537 yards receiving and five touchdowns, with Green and Holani adding another 878 yards on the ground and 12 touchdowns combined. UNLV does have a good run defense, but the Broncos ran well against Air Force and Wyoming, who both finished better against the run than UNLV.  The running game needs to set the tone for the game, not just for the physicality but for the big play ability to keep pressure on the Rebel defense.

Keep The Top On the Pass Defense

Boise State has improved dramatically in the latter part of the season against the pass, which is misleading. Two of the last three games have been against New Mexico and Air Force, which is helpful, but the Bronco secondary held up well against Utah State, who finished fourth in passing. A big part of that has been due to the defensive line creating much more pressure on the quarterback. 

Defensive lineman Ahmed Hassanein has been wreaking havoc and racked up 12 sacks on the season, along with linebacker Andrew Simpson, who also has 15 tackles for loss.  While UNLV is a run-first team, they have a dangerous quarterback-receiver combination of Jayden Maiava and Ricky White.

White averages over 17 yards a catch and has seven touchdowns on the season, so he is familiar with getting loose in opponents’ secondary.  If the pass rush can keep Maiava from getting comfortable, Boise State should be able to keep the Rebel running game in check.

Focus!!!

There has been a lot of news and speculation going around the program regarding the search for their new head coach.  Many players want interim head coach Spencer Danielson to be the next coach, which has led to a renewed passion for the program.  This may lead to players being too excited for a game that appeared out of reach a few weeks ago, and while they should be excited for the opportunity, they have to play within themselves to avoid costly mistakes. 

UNLV has forced the most turnovers in the Mountain West this season and will be looking to capitalize on every mistake made. One clear advantage the Broncos will have is that they have been here before.  This game is the Broncos 4th title game in the last five years, so most of the team knows how to handle the game. At the same time, this is UNLV’s first winning season since 2013, let alone a championship game, so they will have to figure out how to win a big game on the fly.

Prediction:

Regardless of the outcome, this season has turned out better than most fans thought it would three weeks ago.  That said, the Bronco defense turnaround should help Boise State outlast the UNLV Rebels 36-24.

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2023 Mountain West Football Championship: The Ten Most Important Players, Ranked

Both Boise State and UNLV will need some big performance to claim the crown. Who might they need to stand out the most on Saturday?

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2023 Mountain West Football Championship: The Ten Most Important Players, Ranked


Both Boise State and UNLV will need some big performance to claim the crown. Who might they need to stand out the most on Saturday?


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Athletes abound.

10. UNLV linebacker Jackson Woodard

One thing that is almost certain to define Saturday’s result is whether or not the Rebels can remain stout against the run. In that regard, UNLV has not been the most disruptive team in the Mountain West all year long but Woodard has stepped up in recent weeks to lead the charge. He collected 4.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks in the team’s last three games, and according to Pro Football Focus, he collected 16 total stops in November, which tied for third-most among conference defenders.

9. UNLV linebacker Marsel McDuffie

Pop quiz: Which defender playing in Saturday’s championship tilt ended November with the highest overall Pro Football Focus grade? If you guessed that this was a leading question to highlight McDuffie’s 77.2 mark, pat yourself on the back. He has been overlooked in the Rebels’ surge, but the sophomore has anchored the middle linebacker position all season and played his best ball in recent weeks.

To wit, he was one of only two Mountain West defenders to average double-digit tackles in November, missing just one tackle attempt (per PFF) while collecting 16 stops, an amount that tied with Woodard for third-most in that stretch. In other words, the Grand Prairie, Texas native is an under-the-radar Lone Star athlete in this game who could be ready for a star turn.

8. Boise State linebacker Andrew Simpson

In examining the statistics, few players in the Mountain West have been as unpredictable as the redshirt sophomore who’s made ten starts on the weak side this year. On the one hand, he’s emerged as a much-needed havoc generator for the Broncos defense, picking up a conference-high eight tackles for loss in November along with 2.5 sacks and, like McDuffie and Woodard above, 16 stops per PFF.

Unlike the two Rebels linebackers, though, Simpson also has a season-long missed tackle rate of 24.7% that is the fifth-highest mark among conference players at the position. They’ll need him to be on point against a UNLV rushing game that features two athletes, Vincent Davis and Jai’Den Thomas, who have combined to force 57 missed tackles this season.

7. Boise State punter James Ferguson-Reynolds

Despite leading the country with an average of 50.08 yards per punt and a net of 43.06 that ranks fifth, Ferguson-Reynolds somehow wasn’t named a Ray Guy Award finalist earlier this week. Surely, he’ll be motivated to prove to the voters that their oversight was foolish and be prepared to bail out the Broncos should they find themselves in a jam.

Ferguson-Reynolds’s prominence in flipping the field will come in handy on Saturday since UNLV has benefitted from some of the nation’s best field position week after week, facing a field that, on average, extends just 67.1 yards. For his part, Ferguson-Reynolds has launched 26 of his 49 punts more than 50 yards and pinned 22 of them inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, so that usual script gets rewritten, you can thank the Aussie sophomore for it.

6. UNLV wide receiver Jacob De Jesus

If that script looks like business as usual, though, it’ll probably be because De Jesus is running free. The former Modesto Junior College product has been the Mountain West’s top return specialist in 2023, leading the conference with 26.4 yards per kickoff return and 16.8 yards per punt return while finishing fifth overall with an average of 107.2 all-purpose yards per game. He’s also been handy as the Rebels’ primary slot receiver as well, managing 20 first downs on 46 receptions, so the Broncos will need to be mindful whenever the ball is in De Jesus’s hands.

PODCAST: Mountain West Championship Game Preview

PODCAST: Mountain West Championship Game Preview UNLV vs. Boise State; who wins? Contact/Follow @MWCwire Title game is here! Jeremy and Josh are back to preview the Mountain West football title game between UNLV and Boise State. They give …

PODCAST: Mountain West Championship Game Preview


UNLV vs. Boise State; who wins?


Contact/Follow @MWCwire

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Title game is here!

Jeremy and Josh are back to preview the Mountain West football title game between UNLV and Boise State. They give predictions and offer up some bold predictions.

Before that they discuss the coaching news across the conference and all-conference picks.

You can find the Mountain West Wire podcast below or subscribe to the show via TuneInSpotifyiTunes, and more. Listen in, subscribe and rate it and let us know what you think!

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UNLV vs. Boise State: How The Rebels Can Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction

On Saturday, the UNLV Rebels will take on the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Conference (MWC Championship game.

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UNLV vs. Boise State: How The Rebels Can Win, How to Watch, Odds, Prediction


The Rebels look to complete their stunning rise to the top of the Mountain West on Saturday afternoon. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.


Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Potential history to be made in Las Vegas.

2023 MOUNTAIN WEST FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP: Boise State Broncos (7-5, 6-2 Mountain West) vs. UNLV Rebels (9-3, 6-2 MW)

WHEN: Saturday, December 2nd — 1:00 p.m. MST / 12:00 p.m. PST

WHERE: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: FOX

STREAM: FuboTV – Get a free trial

SERIES RECORD: This will be the 12th all-time matchup between the two schools. Boise State leads the series 8-3. The Rebels have lost the last six meetings.

WEBSITES: BroncoSports.com | UNLVRebels.com

ODDS: Boise State -3

SP+ PROJECTION: UNLV by 1.0

FEI PROJECTION: Even

PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: UNLV 53.87% win probability (29.92-19.79)

On Saturday, the UNLV Rebels will take on the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Conference (MWC Championship game. It should be an exciting game and highly contested. Both teams have a good chance of winning.

Pass to set up the run

The Rebels like to run the ball, but the Broncos feature the second-best run defense in the MWC, giving up 127.2 yards per game. This game was where UNLV could use the pass to set up the run. Boise State gives up 254.8 passing yards per game, which is last in the MWC.

Rebels quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,628 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. Receiver Ricky White leads the Rebels with 75 receptions, 1,300 yards, and seven touchdowns. Look for UNLV to use quick passing and get the ball to White early so it can loosen the Broncos’ defense, then the Rebels can run.

Stop the run

UNLV must be successful in slowing down the Boise State rushing attack. The Broncos average 207.7 yards per game. They are led by Ashton Jeanty, the Mountain West offensive player of the year who averaged 164.6 all-purpose yards per game and scored 18 touchdowns, though George Holani contributed when healthy with 534 yards and five touchdowns in six games and freshman Jambres Dubar flashed his potential with 335 yards on 62 attempts.

UNLV gives up 144.6 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush, so they must tackle well and play in the correct gaps to slow down the Broncos’ rushing attack. If UNLV can slow down the Boise State running game and force them to pass, they will have a great chance of winning. UNLV’s leading tackler, Jackson Woodard, must be all over the field for the Rebels.

Special teams

The Rebels have an excellent kicker, Jose Pizano, who was recently named a Lou Groza Award finalist, has made all 50 of his extra points, and has connected on 23-of-25 field goals, the longest coming from 52 yards. Returner Jacob DeJesus averages 26.4 yards on kickoff and 16.8 yards on punt returns, both of which led the Mountain West. In close games, field position and field goals can be crucial, and the Rebels have players who can be game-changers on special teams.

Prediction

The Rebels will win  27-24 with a Pizano last-second field goal. I think UNLV will slow down the Broncos rushing attack and make plays in the passing game.

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2023 Mountain West Football Championship: Eight Statistics That Could Decide The Game

The clash between Boise State and UNLV may revolve around several key facets of the game. We dive into the numbers you need to know.

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2023 Mountain West Football Championship: Eight Statistics That Could Decide The Game


The clash between Boise State and UNLV may revolve around several key facets of the game. We dive into the numbers you need to know.


Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire

Stats don’t lie.

10.5

There are many reasons why UNLV quarterback Jayden Maiava was tabbed as the Mountain West’s freshman of the year, but one of the most significant is that few quarterbacks anywhere in the country were as dangerous as the Las Vegas native throughout recent weeks. In four November gamesMaiava averaged 10.5 yards on exactly 100 pass attempts, one of just four FBS quarterbacks to manage that feat in that stretch.

The others, by the way: LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Oregon’s Bo Nix, and Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel. That’s pretty good company to keep, especially when you also throw seven touchdowns and just two interceptions as Maiava did. While it may be asking a lot for the redshirt freshman to reach that high bar one more time, don’t dismiss that it could happen.

13

It won’t be a secret that Boise State will want to run the ball with Ashton Jeanty, George Holani, and Jambres Dubar, but can UNLV be disruptive enough in the front seven to keep the Broncos from running wild? According to CollegeFootballData.com, the Rebels have an overall defensive stuff rate of 13%, the frequency with which they stop plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, and the front seven has a havoc rate (any play which generates a tackle for loss, forced fumble, interception, or pass breakup) of 8.4%.

For the sake of comparison, Boise State’s defensive stuff rate and front seven havoc rate are 18% and 11.2%, respectively. Considering the aforementioned Broncos trio has averaged 5.8 yards per carry on the season, however, it will be imperative for Jalen Dixon, Darius Johnson, and the rest of the UNLV defensive front to stand tall and keep the game from getting away.

26.4

One way or another, field position is going to be a critical part of the Mountain West championship. On the one hand, according to Parker Fleming, 26.4 represents the average starting position of Boise State opponents’ drives, the 14th-best average in FBS and a credit to the efforts of punter James Ferguson-Reynolds; on the other hand, 26.4 also happens to be the amount of yards that UNLV’s Jacob De Jesus averaged per kickoff return in the regular season, the highest average in the conference.

That’s just one reason why the Rebels offense started with the fourth-best field position in the country, from the 32.9-yard line on average, and it isn’t unreasonable to think both could bring their best to the table on Saturday. It’d make for a fascinating chess match.

37.3

Few players in the Mountain West were as dominant in the second half of the season as UNLV wide receiver Ricky White, so it isn’t surprising that the Rebels sought to take advantage of his tear at every turn. That’s why, per Parker Fleming, White’s 115 targets equate to a 37.3% team target share that is the highest of any pass catcher playing on championship Saturday. Needless to say, Boise State’s cornerbacks are going to have their hands full slowing down this particular freight train: White has ripped off at least 100 receiving yards in six of his last seven games.

41.3

According to Pro Football Focus, 24 different Mountain West defensive backs were thrown at 40 or more times throughout the regular season. Five are playing in the Mountain West championship game, but one also happens to have the lowest completion rate allowed among that cohort.

That would be Boise State cornerback A’Marion McCoy, who started five games for the Broncos in the second half of the campaign and gave up only 19 catches on 43 targets, a 41.3% rate. He also allowed 13.4 yards per reception, meaning that he might be the key to addressing the explosive Ricky White in pass coverage.

83.33

One thing that UNLV has done very well in recent weeks is that they’ve rarely wasted an opportunity to put six points on the board when they push into the red zone. Through four November games, the Rebels have scored 15 touchdowns on 18 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, an 83.33% rate that not only tops the Mountain West but is tied for the fifth-best rate in the country down the stretch.

By contrast, the Boise State defense has knuckled down more frequently in those same situations. Though they’ve given up a touchdown on 65.85% of opponents’ red zone trips throughout the 2023 season (10th in the Mountain West), that figure has dropped to 45.45% in November. If both sides battle to a draw here, it might make for a photo finish when all is said and done.

89.1

Then again, if it comes down to the kicking game, both Boise State and UNLV have reasons to be confident. That’s because the Rebels’ Jose Pizano, a Lou Groza Award finalist, and the Broncos’ Jonah Dalmas have combined to put 41-of-46 field goals through the uprights, an 89.1% success rate. Dalmas is also 9-of-10 on attempts from 40 or more yards away while Pizano is 6-of-9, so there may at least bit a slight bit of difference in Spencer Danielson’s and Barry Odom’s decision making when things get murky on the far side of midfield.

23,661

How much of a homefield advantage will UNLV have at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday? Through six home games, the Rebels have an average attendance of 23,661 fans which averages out to just 36.4% of the facility’s overall capacity. Granted, no one is expecting a sellout of 65,000 strong, but a home team hasn’t won the Mountain West crown since 2019 and a new season-high showing of the scarlet and gray faithful, at least, could be the kind of critical X-factor that Boise State often benefits from themselves at Albertsons Stadium.

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