Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 311 odds between Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, with MMA picks and predictions.
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In a 3-round light heavyweight bout on the main card, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill meet at UFC 311 Saturday at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 311: Prochazka vs. Hill odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, while the main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view with simulcasts on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET.
Records: Prochazka (30-5-1) | Hill (12-2-0)
Prochazka lost his strap at UFC 303 after a second-round KO/TKO loss at UFC 303 against Alex Pereira. Win or lose, it’s usually exciting whenever Prochazka is in action. In his 6 UFC fights, he has had 5 KO/TKO results in Round 2, winning 3 of those bouts, while losing to Pereira in the others. He also submitted Glover Teixeira in Round 5 at UFC 275 to secure a title.
Hill suffered a Round 1 KO/TKO to Pereira at UFC 300, halting a 4-game win streak. His last victory was a unanimous-decision win at UFC 283 against Teixeira. Like Prochazka, he hasn’t been involved in fights going the distance, posting 6 KO/TKO results in 6 of the past 7 fights, with just the Teixeira fight going the distance. He is 4-2 in those 6 KO/TKO fights.
Prochazka has a 1-inch reach advantage, while the southpaw Hill has a 7.18 significant strikes landed per minute to 5.38 for Prochazka. The latter is a little more accurate at 58.08%, to 56.75% for Hill.
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UFC 311: Prochazka vs. Hill odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:36 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Prochazka +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Hill -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +125)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)
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UFC 311: Prochazka vs. Hill picks and predictions
Both of these fighters will be glad they’re not facing Pereira. That’s the guy who has given each fighter the most trouble.
HILL (-140) is a solid play as the moderate favorite against Prochazka (+115). He had 4 straight victories in the past 5 fights, losing his light heavyweight belt to Pereira last time out. Both fighters are looking to position themselves for a run at the title again. As long as the southpaw doesn’t get taken down to the canvas, where Prochazka does a good job, Hill is a strong play.
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-165) is a strong play. While Hill hasn’t been taken out of Round 1 very often, he has gone to Round 4 in 2 of his past 3 outings. As the competition has gotten tougher, Hill’s fights have ended up going longer.
As far as Prochazka is concerned, while he has never ended up going the distance in 6 fights at the UFC level, he also has ended up going past the halfway mark in Round 2 in 4 of his previous 5 outings.
While Over 1.5 Rounds is a solid play, No (-250): Will the fight go the distance? is way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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