Category: 49ers Odds

49ers open as slight favorites over Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII

The 49ers open as favorites over the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII.

The San Francisco 49ers are set for a rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. Their first meeting in Super Bowl LIV to conclude the 2019 season finished with a 31-20 Chiefs win. Early odds have the 49ers as the favorites to avenge that defeat.

BetMGM has San Francisco listed as 1.5-point favorites over the Chiefs on the opening line. With two weeks to go until the game though there’s plenty of time for that line to move.

The 49ers have been favored in all three of their playoff games, including by 9.5 over the Packers in the divisional round and 7 over the Lions in the conference championship game.

They’ve yet to cover a spread after a pair of three-point victories. They’ll need to cover this one against the Chiefs if they want to get a win and their sixth Lombardi Trophy.

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49ers open as heavy favorite to win NFC championship

The 49ers open as big favorites over the Lions:

The 49ers will host the Lions in the NFC championship game at Levi’s Stadium. While Detroit played better than the 49ers did in the divisional round, San Francisco is still a 7-point favorite over the Lions according to BetMGM.

While it’s a little surprising to see such a big number on the 49ers to open, there’s certainly a path to a big win for a San Francisco team that’s in its third NFC championship game in as many years.

It would make sense if the number started trending toward Detroit given what they can do in the run game and how they might be able to keep the game tight the same way the Packers did.

Injuries could also play a key role in how the line moves. 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel is banged up, as is Lions center Frank Ragnow. Both players are huge pieces to their offenses and in a game that should be closely contested, those injuries could make a huge difference.

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49ers open as favorites at Philadelphia

The 49ers opened as favorites in Philly.

The 49ers are the No. 2 seed in the NFC and two games back of the Philadelphia Eagles heading into their Week 12 NFC rematch at Lincoln Financial Field. San Francisco, despite being two games worse and visiting from the opposite coast, opened as 1.5-point favorites over the Eagles according to BetMGM.

There’s no guarantee the line will stay in the 49ers’ favor, but it’s not a huge surprise they opened as the favorite. They’ll be coming off 10 days rest while the Eagles will be coming off a hard-fought overtime win over the Bills.

The 49ers have also been more dominant in their wins this year despite a stretch of play in the middle of the season where they were demonstrably worse.

Sunday’s game in Philadelphia should be a good one though as evidenced by the tight line. It’s unlikely that line will inflate in either direction. Both teams are very good and coming off a big wins. Vegas is expecting a close one, and that’s probably the safest bet to make.

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49ers favored big in Sunday Night Football game vs. Chargers

The #49ers are primed for a big game against the Chargers, and the point spread shows it.

The 49ers are coming off their bye week with a chance to get healthy enough to resemble the team some considered a Super Bowl contender before the season. Optimism around the club is apparent in the point spread for their showdown against the 5-3 Chargers. Tipico Sportsbook has San Francisco favored by seven points at home Sunday night.

It’s not a huge surprise the spread has ballooned from a lookahead line near a field goal up to a touchdown. The 49ers have another week to get running back Christian McCaffrey acclimated and involved in their offense. They’ll also have wide receiver Deebo Samuel back, and they could have RB Elijah Mitchell back from an MCL sprain as well. All of this comes together in time to face a Chargers club that’s one of the worst run-stopping units in the league.

This is the kind of game the 49ers could run away with if they generate a turnover or two and control the clock with a heavy dose of a run game that gets the ball into the hands of their best playmakers.

Meanwhile, the Chargers’ receiving corps is banged up and their run game hasn’t been particularly strong all year behind a beat up offensive line. A newly-healthy 49ers defense could have a big day to complement a good offensive showing.

When San Francisco plays complementary football, they’re very hard to beat, and they have a tendency to pull away and win by multiple scores.

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49ers favored to sweep East Coast swing

The #49ers are favored by almost a touchdown vs. Atlanta, but the Falcons could pose some problems in perhaps the 49ers’ “easiest” game over the next couple months.

The 49ers are favored by nearly a touchdown Sunday in Atlanta. Tipico Sportsbook has them sitting at 5.5-point favorites heading into the weekend despite a handful of injury issues on both sides of the ball for San Francisco. Looking ahead to their schedule this could be the last time they’re favored by upwards of a touchdown for a couple months.

After Atlanta they head home to face the Chiefs, then they hit the road to take on the Rams before a showdown with the Chargers at Levi’s Stadium coming out of the Bye. They also face the Cardinals, Saints, Dolphins and Buccaneers before going to Seattle for a Thursday night game. Their game after the Thursday game is Dec. 24 at home against the Washington Commanders, which may be the next time they’re favored by as many points as they are in Atlanta.

This isn’t necessarily to say the Falcons are going to be a pushover for San Francisco. Atlanta is 2-3, but their three losses have come by a combined 11 points. Their largest loss was a six-point defeat at the hands of the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay last week, and even that game was swung by a very questionable roughing the passer call on Falcons DL Grady Jarrett late.

Atlanta has struggled some defensively where they rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA metric. Offensively though they’re 10th in the NFL in that same stat despite ranking near the bottom of the league in pass attempts and passing yards.

Their run game has thrived though, and that’s where the concern sets in for the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense has been very good this year, but injuries will eventually catch up with them. Starting CB Emmanuel Moseley is out for the year with a torn ACL, and all four of their starting defensive linemen were out of practice Wednesday. There’s a chance the 49ers face one of the NFL’s most effective rushing attacks with what amounts to a backup defensive line.

It’s not that the 49ers shouldn’t be favored by nearly a touchdown. After all, sportsbooks are looking to get equal money on both sides of a number. However, just because this game is perhaps near the bottom of their schedule in terms of quality of opponent over the next couple of months doesn’t mean it’ll be easy for San Francisco.

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49ers sign RB Tevin Coleman to active roster

The 49ers have signed RB Tevin Coleman to the active roster and added RB Marlon Mack and K Sam Sloman to the practice squad.

The San Francisco 49ers have announced several roster moves ahead of their Week 6 matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.

The 49ers have promoted running back Tevin Coleman to the active roster from the team’s practice squad. San Francisco has also signed running back Marlon Mack and kicker Sam Sloman to the practice squad. They released quarterback Kurt Benkert in a corresponding move.

Coleman has appeared in two games this season, where he’s rushed for 23 yards on eight carries with a touchdown and added three catches for 44 yards and a touchdown.

The 49ers released Mack on Tuesday to make room for Coleman. But they wasted no time signing Mack to the practice squad. He appeared in two games this season, where he only played five snaps on special teams, including recovering a fumble.

Sloman, a seventh-round pick in 2020, appeared in seven games with the Los Angeles Rams in 2020, where he connected on eight of 11 field goals (72.8%) and 18 of 21 extra points (85.7%).

Last season, Sloman appeared in one game with the Tennessee Titans and also was on the Pittsburgh Steelers practice squad.

Can 49ers cover big spread vs. Panthers?

Can the #49ers cover a pretty big spread against the Panthers?

The 49ers are heavy favorites on the road in Carolina on Sunday, and they probably should be. Tipico Sportsbook has them favored by 6.5 points despite a cross country trip on a short week after Monday Night Football.

That’s probably about the right number. Carolina’s offense is one of the NFL’s worst, ranking 31st in offensive DVOA per Pro Football Outsiders. Pick any offensive metric though and the Panthers are at or near the bottom of the league.

Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense is No. 1 in defensive DVOA and at or near the top of virtually any metric that measures total defense. There’s a very easy scenario to envision where the Panthers simply can’t move the ball effectively for most of Sunday’s game and the 49ers offense puts up a couple scores and they cover easily.

On the other hand, it’s not a slam dunk that the 49ers’ offense will move the ball against Carolina. While the Panthers have had their offensive issues this season, their defense has mostly been okay behind star pass rusher Brian Burns.

The version of the 49ers offense we’ve seen the last two weeks hasn’t been particularly inspiring, and now they’re starting third-string left tackle Jaylon Moore. Uneven offensive performances make it easy to also envision a scenario where San Francisco’s offense looks something like it did in Denver or through most of the second half against the Rams.

Ultimately the matchup to watch is the 49ers’ defense against Carolina’s offense. Even if San Francisco struggles some offensively, a combination of defensive takeaways and a couple of explosive plays by the offense should allow them to comfortably outscore whatever it is the defense gives up.

There’s also the world where the 49ers offense hits its stride after a couple of early-season hiccups and they roll Carolina by multiple touchdowns.

Either way, there are more outcomes where the 49ers cover the 6.5 than outcomes where they don’t. Even if a full touchdown feels like a lot for a struggling offense, it’s probably the safe pick this week.

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49ers favored at home vs. Rams despite Week 3 stumble

Despite a Week 3 hiccup, the 49ers are favored at home vs. the Rams.

A hiccup in Week 3 that pushed the 49ers to 1-2 on the season didn’t sway bettors from favoring San Francisco in their Week 4 home bout against the Rams. Tipico Sportsbook has the 49ers favored by 1.5 points on Monday night when they host Los Angeles.

Sportsbooks are far less reactionary than fans. While the 49ers’ performance in Denver was certainly dreadful, chances are that wasn’t the version of their offense we’ll see for the rest of the season. There’s a ton of bounce-back potential at home against a divisional opponent. Not to mention the 49ers have owned that divisional opponent in the regular season with six consecutive head-to-head wins.

There’s more to consider than just the 49ers’ Week 3 offensive performance though. Their defense, for example, has allowed just 3.9 yards per play through the first three weeks and they’re third in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA. While they’ve faced three struggling offensive, any defense that allows 28 points in three games is doing something right.

Pitting that 49ers defense against a Rams club that’s had a hard time protecting quarterback Matthew Stafford makes it easy to draw a path to a low-scoring output for Los Angeles.

If San Francisco’s offense can get right against a defense head coach Kyle Shanahan has consistently found ways to move the ball against, that 1.5 points should get covered.

Of course, there’s always a chance the 49ers offense bogs down again and even another sterling defensive performance can’t save them.

Either way, Monday night should be close despite the avalanche of criticism levied against the 49ers for their dreary Week 3 outing. They had a bounce-back win over the Rams in Week 10 last year, and Vegas is favoring them to do it again this season.

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49ers heavily favored over Seahawks despite Week 1 performances

The #49ers are favored by 8.5 over the Seahawks — a number they haven’t covered vs. Seattle since Jim Harbaugh’s debut in Week 1 of the 2011 season.

The 49ers left Chicago looking like a team with a ton of questions to answer. The Seahawks left their Week 1 opener a winner over the heavily-favored Broncos. Despite opposite sentiments around each team in the days after their respective season openers, sports books still like the 49ers to beat Seattle in Week 2. Tipico Sportsbook has San Francisco favored at home by 8.5 points.

This points to a couple things. First, Week 1 is always a little strange. Weird things happen with new coaches, new players, injuries and everything else that shifts over the course of an offseason. Second, both the 49ers and Seahawks had some weird circumstances in Week 1. There was a torrential downpour in Chicago, while Seattle hosted long-time starting quarterback Russell Wilson in his first game as a Denver Bronco.

So the books instead revert to what we knew about each team going into the year. The 49ers were coming off an NFC championship game appearance and hoped to do the same again this year. Seattle was going through a semi-rebuild after trading Wilson. That would indicate there’s a sizable discrepancy between the two clubs, which is why the number now sits at 8.5 points.

Beware hammering either side on this line though. There’s a not-so-crazy scenario where San Francisco blows out Chicago and Seattle gets trounced by Denver and 8.5 points looks right. On the other hand, the 49ers haven’t beaten Seattle by more than 8.5 points since Week 1 of the 2011 season when they won 33-17 at Candlestick Park. Since then they’ve won just four games against Seattle by a combined 14 points.

Signs point to the Seahawks covering the hefty spread, but it’s too easy to envision a scenario where the 49ers exact some long-awaited revenge on a Seattle club that no longer has Russell Wilson at quarterback. We’re staying away from this game.

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49ers favored big in season opener at Chicago

The 49ers are favored big vs. the Bears, but the total is what really jumps out Sunday.

The handwringing over the 49ers’ 2022 season commenced when Jimmy Garoppolo restructured his contract to return to San Francisco and planted some seeds of doubt in the club’s confidence in first-year starter Trey Lance. If there’s a hiccup coming from Lance, the betting lines don’t anticipate it coming in Week 1 when the 49ers face the Bears in Chicago. Tipico Sportsbook has the 49ers favored by 6.5 points on the road. They’re -340 on the money line as well, making them the largest Week 1 favorite.

It’s easy to see a path where the 49ers cover the 6.5 points while Lance struggles. San Francisco could wind up fielding the top defense in the NFL while featuring perhaps the league’s top pass rush. That unit has a chance to feast on a Bears offensive line that doesn’t project to be a strong point of their offense. Once we factor in their lack of top-end talent with their pass catchers it all adds up to a long day for Chicago’s offense.

That 6.5-point number is key because even a 10-3 49ers victory gets them the cover without pushing.

There’s not a ton of value in the 49ers on the money line. Bettors have to place a $340 bet to win $100. The more interesting non-spread number is the total. Tipico has the over/under set at 41.5 with the under going at -115 (bet $115 to win $100). San Francisco’s defense should be stingy Sunday, but the Bears defensive line against a shaky 49ers offensive front could make for tough sledding for Lance and Co.

We like a low-scoring 49ers win.

Picks: 49ers -6.5, under 41.5