The No. 5-seed San Diego State Aztecs (32-6) will try to use their elite defense to take down the No. 4-seeded UConn Huskies (30-8) in the National Championship Game in Houston Monday at 9:20 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we break down FanDuel Sportsbook’s NCAA basketball National Championship prop bet odds and lines, and tab the 5 best San Diego State vs. UConn prop bets to make among SportsbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Both teams come into the title game hot.
San Diego State is on a 9-game win streak, last losing Feb. 28 — at Boise State 66-60 as a 2.5-point underdog, The Aztecs won the regular-season title and the conference tournament in the Mountain West.
UConn is looking to become the 1st team NCAA Tournament champion since 2018 Villanova to win all its tourney games by at least 10 points.
This will be a difficult feat for UConn as San Diego State has an elite defense and the ability to keep games close. Per NCAA.com, the Aztecs rank 24th in points allowed per game (63.1 PPG), 38th in opponents’ field-goal percentage (40.9%) and 3rd in opponents’ 3-point percentage (28.2%).
While the Aztecs are great on defense, UConn comes into this matchup top 10 in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency this season. The Huskies have, despite losing 8 games total, yet to lose a game against a team not in the Big East Conference.
This will be the toughest matchup of the season for San Diego State, while this will be a bit less difficult for UConn.
The final USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll before the NCAA Tournament had the Huskies ranked 12th and the Aztecs 18th.
Check out: San Diego State vs. UConn odds, picks and predictions
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Best San Diego State vs. UConn national title prop bet picks
Odds provided by FanDuelSportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:56 p.m. ET.
UConn F Adama Sanogo OVER 16.5 points (-115)
Sanogo, the favorite for the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award, is looking to become the 5th player ever to average 20 points and 10 rebounds for the entire tournament while also winning the championship.
San Diego State is a long, rangy defense and is No. 3 in the nation against the 3-point shot. This will cause UConn to go down low to its big man, leading to Sanogo points in the paint.
The 16.5 number offers a few points of value worth backing.
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Sanogo OVER 8.5 rebounds (+104)
With in-the-paint points comes rebounds on misses.
With the Aztecs’ stingy defense, the Huskies will have their share of missed shots. Those misses will lead to rebounds, and Sanogo will be in the right place to grab them.
San Diego State will be forced to put up more shots to remain competitive, and it’s not normally a high-shooting team. The Aztecs will struggle a bit, leading to even more rebounds.
Sanogo’s O/U line of 8.5 rebounds is a good number and worth a play. Plus, if you can find alternate lines of Sanogo over 12 or even 14 rebounds, these would be solid wagers — with higher payoffs of plus-money odds.
San Diego State G Matt Bradley OVER 12.5 points (-106)
After averaging 8.8 PPG in the first 4 games of the tourney, Bradley scored 21 in the Aztecs’ Final Four semifinal victory against FAU.
Bradley is the Aztecs’ leading scorer this season, averaging 12.7 PPG. He’ll will need to have another good game if San Diego State wants to pull off the upset of UConn.
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First-half spread: UCONN -3.5 (-114)
UConn wants to get out and run the floor. It will attempt to control the pace of the game much like it has the entire tournament.
San Diego State will struggle to keep up like it did in the first half against FAU. The Aztecs were down big against the Owls in Saturday’s semifinal, and they will again find themselves down at halftime Monday.
The 3.5 points is in line with the game line of 7.5, but that number is also too low and provides us value on the first-half spread.
Take the value and BET UCONN FIRST HALF -3.5 (-114).
Winning margin: UCONN 11+ POINTS (+156)
UConn has not won a game by less than 10 points this entire tournament. The Huskies’ smallest margin of victory was the 13-point margin Saturday in its 72-59 win over Miami to advance to this title game.
San Diego State will provide the best defense the Huskies have seen in the tournament, but it will not matter as Sanogo and G Jordan Hawkins are playing at a different level right now.
After falling ill Friday and being severely limited Saturday, Hawkins will be in top form Monday and will set NRG Stadium aflame with his UConn teammates.
The 7.5-point line that UConn is favored by is not enough. Another UConn double-digit win is in store. Taking the extended margin of 11+ points for greater odds is a solid prop wager to finish out a winning night.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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