Fantasy football breakout players

2023 NFL backfields in transition

Changing backfields means hidden fantasy value and big opportunities

The changes to NFL backfields are always more than expected and offer the best source for preseason sleeper picks and in-season waiver wire gems. Heading into 2023, it appears no less dynamic than any year and maybe full of more transitions than usual. Let’s look at each NFL team and consider if their top two running backs from last season have a chance to offer reliable fantasy points. And see where opportunities most likely lie.

Teams with new primary running back

Those ratios hold true in all years, even back when they seemed to be the only reliable players. About half of all NFL backfields feature a different highest-scoring running back each year. It may be from injury, a new free agent, a rookie back, or just a guy climbing up the depth chart from the previous season, but the change from year to year is significant and can offer immense fantasy advantage.

Each team employs several running backs and averages five different players with at least one carry. Last year, the Cowboys and Giants were at the bottom using just three rushers, but the 49ers, Broncos, and Saints went through at least seven each. Nine other teams used six different players to carry the ball. That reflects both injuries and just the natural rise and fall of players, along with the reliance on committee backfields by most teams.

The tables blow show the total yards and touchdowns for each player, along with their fantasy rank in reception-point leagues. They are the two highest-scoring running backs for the team in 2022.

Returning primary running backs

Any team could opt to make a surprise cut or trade. The internet comes alive with rumors and speculation for the next few months about even the best players – Derrick Henry to the Bills? He could be traded away from free agency next year and the Titans have a new offensive coordinator. Cam Akers may not be completely safe, and the Jets and Commanders will look to get more from their 2022 rookies of Breece Hall and Brian Robinson. But overall, these should be the more reliable situations. Until they are not.

Nine of the second-best running backs above are free agents this offseason. And when the No. 1 back misses a game, the No. 2 back has to step up.

And the above 17 teams are right around that yearly average for backfields that do not change.

Teams with potential new backfields

These 15 teams all have at least potential changes to their backfield and could be very different for 2022. Each has a unique situation that won’t be clear until after the NFL draft and June 1st cuts. If even then. I include the team rank for total PPR-fantasy points as an overall measurement of backfield effectiveness.

All the free agents are available to change teams, and the NFL draft will always produce at least four to six backs with at least minor fantasy value. These are teams to track through the spring to see where backfields end up for the preseason.

Arizona Cardinals (No. 26) – James Conner may be in his final season since there is an out in his contract for next year. Conner is a pounder and dropped from 18 touchdowns in 2021 to only eight last year. Eno Benjamin wasn’t any upgrade to the departed Chase Edmonds, and there’s speculation that the Cards could use the NFL draft to secure a faster, more dynamic runner to pair with Conner. And that could end up being a rookie good enough to take over as the primary back and allow James Conner to assume the complementary short-yardage/goal line role. There’s a new coaching staff including OC Drew Petzing, who last coached the Browns’ quarterbacks.

Baltimore Ravens (No. 29) – This is a committee backfield with a new offensive coordinator Todd Monken who last ran the offense at Georgia so running the ball will be a priority. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards struggled to return from their respective ACL injuries last year and the backfield held very spotty and mostly unreliable fantasy value. Kenyan Drake was just a fill-in and is now a free agent. Both Dobbins and Edwards ran fewer than 90 times each. Dobbins and Edwards are in the final year of their contracts. Maybe Dobbins finally stays healthy and reclaims the primary role. Maybe Lamar Jackson steals all the touchdowns again. Maybe they bring in a new player with two functioning knees.

Buffalo Bills (No. 25) – Devin Singletary had never been better than the No. 20 fantasy running back playing in a prolific offense, and he’s a free agent that may not be re-signed. James Cook showed enough as a rookie to merit being the No. 1 back though there’s always an element of a committee approach and Josh Allen will steal most of the rushing scores. If Singletary moves on, the Bills will need a viable No. 2 back. Nyheim Hines was acquired last year in a trade but only played special teams which may continue. The primary rusher may be underfed in this pass-first offense, but he only needs to add a couple of catches to ensure every-week fantasy starts.

Carolina Panthers (No. 12) – Losing Christian McCaffrey obviously changed everything, and new HC Frank Reich brings his run-heavy sensibilities from the Colts. D’Onta Foreman stepped in front of Chuba Hubbard to become the new primary back to end last season. Foreman is a free agent but there is speculation that they may re-sign him after he averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year. With plenty of needs on the roster, it could make sense to rely on Foreman at least for the first season of a rebuilding offense. The Panthers will likely add a rookie or free agent back for depth, so training camp should clear up the backfield roles. Spending an early pick on a running back would devalue Foreman but could yield upside to a rookie rusher.

Chicago Bears (No. 28) – The Bears offense has sputtered plenty in the last two seasons, and the offensive line has been one of the worst for the last few years. Now David Montgomery is a free agent that may not be re-signed. This is the second season for HC Matt Eberflus’ offense and they could elect to promote up Khalil Herbert or bring in a new primary back. The early expectation is that Montgomery walks, Herbert steps up to start the year and the Bears add a Day 2 rookie or a free agent to the backfield that may compete for the primary role at least eventually.

Cincinnati Bengals (No. 10) – This could be the same returning backfield. After all, Joe Mixon was the No. 4 fantasy running back in 2021 and is signed for one more year. But he also has been oft-dinged in his six NFL seasons and there is speculation that Cincy releases him post-June 1 with a $10M saving, re-signs the capable free agent Samaje Perine and then acquires a promising Day 2 rookie running back to compete for playing time. This is another pass-first offense, but Mixon showed what a healthy primary back can do in this offense when he totaled 1,519 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2021.

Dallas Cowboys (No. 4) – The Cowboys love their running backs, maybe too much given that Ezekiel Elliott signed through 2026 with over $50 million in salary committed. But they also gave themselves an out this year where they can cut him and save a lot of money despite eating an $11.8 million dead cap hit. Or they can redo his contract and bring him back at a reduced price which is possible and most likely. Tony Pollard finished his rookie contract on a high note and will upgrade the $1.1 million he made last year. They could end up with Elliott and Pollard again. They could end up with Elliott and a rookie back like Bijan Robinson as the next potential Emmitt/Ezekiel. Whatever they do, there will be significant fantasy value attached.

Denver Broncos (No. 14) – Last year was a complete face-plant for the Broncos offense that lost the promising Javonte Williams to a torn ACL, dumped Melvin Gordon, acquired Chase Edmonds, who injured his ankle and landed on injured reserve and will likely be a cap casualty since it would save $5.9 million in cap space for the strapped Broncos. They ended up with Latavius Murray as the best available and Murray has history with new HC Sean Payton though he’s slated to be a free agent along with Marlon Mack and Mike Boone. There’s conjecture that Williams may not be ready by Week 1, which further complicates the picture. The 33-year-old Murray is not the long-term answer to be sure, so it all depends on how quickly and how well Williams recovers as to whether they stand pat with Murray as the fill-in, upgrade the No. 2 back in free agency, or mine the draft for a quality back to help out.

Detroit Lions (No. 2) – It doesn’t hurt that the Lions spent big on offensive linemen and have reaped the benefits of one of the elite units. Still, they cannot keep D’Andre Swift on the field and healthy. He enters the final year of his rookie contract and the expectation is that the Lions will let him walk in 2024 but he’s cheap enough to keep for this season. Jamaal Williams was the one with a magic year when he led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns and he hits free agency. Williams is key, but Swift remains for one more season to cloud the picture.

Kansas City Chiefs (No. 5) – The Chiefs’ backfield started out trying to get the former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire on track for the third season and ended with training camp hype monster Isiah Pacheco wresting away the primary rushing job. Jerick McKinnon finished 2021 on a hot streak in the playoffs that didn’t continue – at least not until Week 12 when he became a scoring machine and then all but disappeared in the playoffs. The Chiefs are expected to decline CEH’s fifth-year option so he’s in his final year. Pacheco should return as the $870K primary rusher, but the 30-year-old McKinnon is a free agent. The Chiefs may re-sign him or look elsewhere for a younger option that could step up more in 2024 when CEH is gone.

Las Vegas Raiders (No. 8) – That was a masterful piece of timing by Josh Jacobs who was denied a fifth-year option, “oops,” and ended his rookie contract as the No. 1 fantasy running back. All that in an offense thought to use a committee that wouldn’t be a great fit for him. Zamir White was a fourth-round pick that only rushed 17 times all year. There is no one else behind him with any experience or expectation, but Jacobs will command whatever the top of the mark is for running backs. He’s likely looking at a franchise tag that he may, or may not, play under. Maybe 2022 was just a magic year for Jacobs, but he wisely cashes in on the situation.

Miami Dolphins (No. 19) – The Dolphins enter 2023 with the entire backfield entering free agency – Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Myles Gaskin, and Salvon Ahmed. The 31-year-old Mostert was the top producer but he and everyone else was injured at some point, and the committee approach further drained potential from the crew. With a decent offensive line, a fearsome pass game, and a glaring need for a young and talented back to show up, the Fins’ foray into free agency and the NFL draft is worth tracking. There’s no reason to bring back the “49ers-East” backfield again this year.

New York Giants (No. 16) – Saquon Barkley was another back with nice timing when he turned in a No. 4 fantasy performance in his final contract year. The Giants aim to re-sign him and he will not be happy if they slap the franchise tag on him. The Giants have to keep him or entirely start over in their otherwise talent-starved backfield. Matt Breida is also a free agent but is no priority to re-sign. HC Brian Daboll’s first season was a rousing success, but the offense must have Barkley to at least match last year, let alone improve.

Philadelphia Eagles (No. 23) – The Eagles’ committee approach to their running backs already limits the primary back, and Miles Sanders emerged as their top option last year with 259 carries for 1,269 yards. But the Eagles are not expected to re-sign him and 27-year-old Boston Scott also becomes a free agent. That leaves Kenneth Gainwell apparently most likely to become the lead back despite never rushing more than 68 times in either previous season. The Eagles are another team rumored to consider taking the Bijan Robinson plunge, and they are a lock to upgrade their backfield if Sanders ends up gone. Between the passing and rushing of Jalen Hurts, it would be hard for any back to do much more than Sanders recently did. But that Philly offensive line is a significant advantage to anyone carrying the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 13) – The Buccaneers are expected to part ways with Leonard Fournette and promote Rachaad White in his second season to become the primary runner. Ke’Shawn Vaughn hasn’t panned out in his three seasons, so the Buccaneers will be looking to at least upgrade the primary backup to White, if not a player that also adds weekly value to the rushing effort. The Bucs brought in new OC Dave Canales from the Seahawks to install a better run game which bodes well for White but also boosts the potential value of whichever back ends up as the No. 2.

Running backs have been devalued in the NFL and with good reason given their injury and burnout rate. This year’s draft is considered to be a deep one for running backs, and Day 2 and Day 3 picks can still offer value as a plug-in replacement or eventual starter. That means that any team can access a quality rookie back for depth – or more.

Fantasy Football: 5 breakout running backs for 2022 season

These running backs could become fantasy football stars this season.

Following roster cuts and waiver claims, NFL backfields have been sorted out and fantasy football managers are now ready to draft ahead of the season opener next week.

When drafting your team, keep an eye on these five running backs — they all have potential for big breakout seasons in 2022.

Fantasy football: 5 quarterback breakout candidates for 2022

Trey Lance is going to win leagues this season.

Everyone wants to draft Josh Allen in fantasy football this year, but are you willing to spend a third or even a second-round pick to get him?

If not, there are many other productive options at quarterback this season, with QBs 2-10 all capable of posting big numbers this fall.

If you decide to wait until really late to draft a QB (or if you play in a two-QB league), consider these five QB breakout candidates who have the potential to outperform their average draft positions this season.

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Fantasy football: 5 tight end breakout candidates for 2022

These five tight ends could outperform their average draft positions in fantasy football this season.

Tight end can be a tricky position in fantasy football. Unless you have one of the top five players at the position, TEs can be somewhat interchangeable on a week-to-week basis, with TE6-10 often dictated by fluky touchdowns.

With that said, picking up a hot tight end off the waiver wire could add a spark to your team during the season, especially when bye weeks and injuries start to hit. Or, if you choose to prioritize other positions in the draft, the top candidates on this breakout lists could even serve as a TE1 in 2022.

Here’s a look at five tight end breakout candidates who have potential to outperform their average draft positions this season.

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Fantasy football’s top breakout candidates for 2022

Which players are poised to have a breakthrough season in 2022?

Several of these players could cross over into the realm of being fantasy football sleepers. For the most part, each name has somewhat established himself as an up-and-coming fantasy football commodity. They’re now on the verge of going big.

The following is listed from least to most likely to break out in 2022.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. ADP variations between sites are wild this time of the year, so expect them to level out over the coming weeks.

2022 fantasy football breakout candidates

Fantasy football’s top breakout candidates for 2021

Several second-year players are on the cusp of something special.

Updated: Sunday, Aug. 14, 2021, at 8:15 p.m. EDT

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and use PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. The figures are based on drafts from Aug. 12-14.

2021 fantasy football breakout candidates

WR Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

Prized No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence should be in a great position to succeed out of the gates, and the Jaguars have surrounded him with weapons. One such asset is the versatility of a second-year talent in Shenault. He can line up all over the field and is dangerous in traffic. He will see ample single coverage with DJ Chark Jr. and Marvin Jones Jr. keeping defenders occupied. Chark is quickly becoming no stranger to the injury bug after missing four games with different ailments and already nursing a surgically repaired broken finger. Shenault’s skills in space lend to creative play calls and easy pitches from his rookie quarterback.

The offensive line is respectable, and the backfield is among the most promising in the game. Jacksonville’s defense, on the other hand, is problematic and shall provide fantasy owners a voluminous passing offense by force of circumstance.

If all of those aspects aren’t alluring enough, Shenault offers the occasional bonus play as a rusher. The draft addition of RB Travis Etienne suggests we won’t see Shenault match his 2020 positional fourth-most 18 carries, but even half of that figure is still worth noting. The Colorado standout closed out 2020 with his three best efforts over the final five contests, displaying an increased understanding of the game and setting the tone for more gains in Year 2.

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

“ACL, schmACL” … the injury just isn’t that daunting of a recovery for a quarterback, especially a young one who wasn’t particularly mobile to begin with. Sure, Burrow can move around and escape when needed, but we’re not talking about Michael Vick here. A torn MCL is even less concerning. Don’t take my word for it … Burrow has been on the field throwing as early as May. That wouldn’t have happened if the medical team was in the slightest bit concerned over his recovery.

The Bengals — in theory — upgraded the offensive line with the addition of right tackle Riley Reiff and expected developmental gains from former first-rounder Jonah Williams at left tackle. Venerated LSU Tigers receiver Ja’Marr Chase was a top-five pick and is reunited with Burrow, creating one of the most dynamic top-three receiver corps in the game. Provided Joe Mixon can return to full strength after an injury-marred season of his own, the backfield should be no worse than competent.

Burrow was well ahead of the rookie learning curve in his first pro season, and a monster leap in production is right at his fingertips, especially if his team’s defense continues to struggle. And he’s going at a bargain price, too.

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WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers

The NFL is a “produce now” entity for young players, so it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to see several second-year names on this list. Mostly gone are the days of receivers practically requiring three or four years to break out. While it is easy to see how the Niners’ quarterback situation may turn off gamers, poor QB play has still resulted in strong showings from wideouts many times. For now, the presumption should be that Jimmy Garoppolo starts as long as he is healthy. While that’s a crapshoot based on his history, the front office is perfectly content with No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance learning for a year before getting his shot. Even if we see Lance as the starter this season, he was the third selection for a reason, and he’ll need to throw the ball to compete in today’s NFL.

There are other mouths to feed, including George Kittle at tight end and Deebo Samuel as a fellow receiver with the chops to succeed, but Aiyuk’s versatility is worth noting. The 2020 first-rounder was explosive in his limited rushing attempts, averaging 12.8 yards and finding the end zone twice. He snagged 60 passes for 748 yards and five touchdowns from a hodgepodge of mostly ineffective quarterbacks.

Don’t expect a significant jump in targets (96) or receptions from last year if Kittle and Samuel stay healthy. It won’t matter, given Aiyuk’s vertical skills that were far from being on full display in 2020. He should increase his yards-per-reception average and has a legit shot at threatening double-digit aerial scores via mismatches and play-calling creativity near the end zone.

RB Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals

Do you really trust James Conner? He is behind Edmonds in terms of knowing the offensive system after the latter has spent two years picking up its nuances. Conner has struggled with injuries in his career and recently underwent offseason surgery to repair an off-field injury compared to turf toe. Toe injuries can be tricky to overcome.

The third year for Edmonds saw a dramatic spike in his role as a receiver (53 catches on 67 targets) after combining for 32 grabs in his first 29 games. Is A.J. Green the answer? How about Christian Kirk’s inconsistent play, or Rondale Moore making a dent as a rookie? In many ways, Edmonds is the safest Arizona skill guy not named DeAndre Hopkins.

Although the backfield also gets a huge boost with center Rodney Hudson’s acquisition, there’s a reasonable concern Edmonds will lose meaningful work around the stripe. But should Conner fail to produce or get hurt yet again, this backfield has no one of consequence to threaten Edmonds for the starting workload.

RB D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

8/14 update: Swift continues to miss practice with a mild groin strain. He still has breakout potential but should be watched with a closer eye over the next few weeks. The longer he remains out, the less optimistic gamers should be about his early-season contributions.

A finish of running back No. 18 in PPR scoring last year suggests he may have already broken out in the eyes of some folks, but there is so much more potential growth to be had from Swift in 2021. He played only 13 games last year as a rookie in an unconventional offseason. Sharing carries with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson resulted in only 114 attempts as he was being slowly brought along by the former coaching staff after early-season mixed play.

Swift will benefit from new head coach Dan Campbell’s commitment to pounding the rock and also the aligned philosophy from incoming offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn. The former Los Angeles Chargers head coach has a history of throwing extensively to his backs, and this team will need the former Georgia star to step up his game after the upheaval at wide receiver in the offseason.

Jared Goff replaces Matthew Stafford, which is an obvious step backward at the quarterback position. It will cut both ways, in terms of defensive scrutiny paid to the backfield, but Swift is in line to see something close to 100 targets this year. RB Jamaal Williams comes over from Green Bay and will share touches with the dual-threat back, which helps keep the explosive Swift healthy and efficient. Toss in the upgraded offensive line as a major factor, and Detroit could present an elite fantasy offering from its blossoming young talent.

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NEW — WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

There is obvious trepidation based on the undefined quarterback situation, but the second-year receiver gained valuable experience last year with a team-high 113 targets and has a fine opportunity ahead. He should be granted the benefit of the doubt after numerous dropped passes, and Jeudy has a strong chance to excel, regardless of the starting QB. Last year, in Carolina, Teddy Bridgewater made weekly starters out of both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson. If Drew Lock wins the gig, it probably helps Jeudy even more, given the glaring arm talent separation between the two passers.

Denver is in a win-now mindset, and it’s hard to see the coaching staff wasting time on Lock if they feel he isn’t ready to ascend his game. Either way, the point is, a player of Jeudy’s natural talent shouldn’t see much of a drop-off in production from a gunslinger to a game manager, especially if WR Courtland Sutton (knee) is able to draw double coverage with regularity. An exceptional route-runner, Jeudy (7th-round ADP) has low-end WR2 potential written all over him.

NEW — WR Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills

Largely unheralded and overshadowed by Stefon Diggs’ monster 2020 season, Davis scored seven times as a rookie deep threat. The Bills parted ways with WR John Brown in the offseason (52 targets in nine games), and Cole Beasley’s offseason has been … let’s just say rocky. Will he be distracted? On the roster in a few months? Does he stay healthy? While he and Davis play basically opposite roles, no Beasley would open serious targets. Buffalo doesn’t have much in the way of a true third-down back, nor does the offense have a tight end who will steal a ton of looks each week. Davis has a real chance to be the No. 2 target behind Diggs, and if something happens to the former Viking injury-wise, no one on the roster but Davis more closely resembles a WR1. He has more breakout potential and isn’t necessarily a lock, but there is plenty to like for a 14th-round ADP.

Breakdown: Melvin Gordon III vs. Javonte Williams

The rookie Williams looks to displace Gordon as the Top DEN RB

For training camp battles, there are few with more interest to fantasy fans as the rookie Javonte Williams going against the veteran Melvin Gordon. While both running backs are expected to play, the question becomes will either enjoy a larger portion of the workload, or will they evenly swap out?

The winner (and hopefully your fantasy team) will reap the benefits of playing in a backfield that ranked around No. 10 in carries, yards, and touchdowns from their rushers. And it will be the rushing portion of their respective workloads that matters most, since the first year of OC Pat Shurmur only completed 52 passes to the position (No. 29), for 272 yards (No. 31) and only one touchdown (No. 30). All combined, this backfield ran for 1,669 yards and ten scores on 372 carries in 2020.

Their success last season came from running Gordon (215-986-9) and Phillip Lindsay (118-502-1). While Lindsay is gone, Williams is hardly just a plug-in replacement.

Javonte Williams

The Broncos upgraded their backfield by selecting Williams with their 2.03 pick, which made him the third back drafted. Williams comes in with a solid pedigree, having paired with Michael Carter at North Carolina for a very productive backfield. Williams peaked as a junior last year, rushing for 1,140 yards on 157 rushes (7.3 yards per carry) over the 11 game season. He also tacked on 25 catches for 305 yards and accounted for a total of 22 touchdowns.

Williams was a high school valedictorian, and brings an intelligence to his sizable set of physical talents. He led the NCAA in missed tackles last year, and was second in gains of 15+ yards. Williams is the prototypical size at 5-10 and 220 pounds. He’s a violent runner that is very hard to bring down. Williams offers a beast at the goal line as well, running in 19 scores last season. His pass-catching and blocking skills also improved in each of his three years.

Williams was not overworked and is fresher than most other rookie backs. While he’s not that fast (4.58 40-time), he’s the guy you want to use to beat down a defense and handle all the inside work. The ex-Tar Heel has the proverbial nose for the endzone and could have instantly slotted as a three-down back on many other teams.

Melvin Gordon

The Chargers selected Gordon with their 1.15 pick in 2015, between Todd Gurley and T.J. Yeldon. In fairness, he played behind a poor offensive line for much of his five seasons in San Diego/Los Angeles, but he only saw one season there with more than a 3.9-yard rushing average. His fantasy value stemmed more from scoring and he’s always been good for between nine and fourteen touchdowns every year.

He only broke 1,000 rushing yards only once (2017) as it was the only time he managed to play in all 16 games. He typically has missed two to four games every season. Gordon is 6-1 and 215 pounds, so he’s slightly more lanky than the burlier Williams. Gordon also held out for a portion of 2019 hoping for a long-term contract that never happened. He returned in Week 5 and had one of his worst years.

Though he turned down a contract offer of $10 million a year with the Chargers during his holdout, he was not re-signed by them and accepted a two-year deal with Denver for $16 million that ends next February. His first season with the Broncos resulted in 215 rushes for 986 yards and nine scores, plus a career-low 32 receptions for 158 yards and one more touchdown. They just don’t throw much to Shurmur’s backfield. Gordon only missed one game in 2020 related to a team punishment for his DUI arrest that was later dropped.

Gordon’s fantasy value has always relied heavily on his touchdown scoring and receptions.

The Denver Backfield

The Broncos have made no motions toward extending Gordon’s contract, so he is slated to be a free agent next year at the age of 29. He’ll likely find even less interest in his services. And the Broncos traded up five spots to snag Williams at the start of the second round as a sign that they coveted the much-hyped rusher out of North Carolina.

Here’s the backfield breakdown in 2020 during the first season with Pat Shurmur as offensive coordinator.

Gordon received around 15 to 20 carries in games that went well for the Broncos, but rarely more than two or three receptions even as the primary back. Lindsay would turn in around six to eight rushes per week, with only the occasional catch.

So, the backfield ratio between Gordon and Lindsay was usually about 2:1 or 3:1 favoring Gordon, and Lindsay offered nearly no fantasy value other than the one week that Gordon missed. Shurmur was the offensive coordinator for the Vikings for Dalvin Cook’s rookie season (2017). but that was cut short after only four games. He did give Cook over 20 carries in two of his three full games before his season-ending injury.

The dilemma is that this offense hasn’t relied on a Thunder and Lightning approach under Shurmur because there is minimal passing. Both Gordon and Williams provide the bigger back “Thunder,” and both have been great at the goal line. It’s more like Williams was selected to replace Gordon who is gone next spring. And they moved up to make sure that happened.

The consensus is that Williams takes over the primary rushing role likely in Week 1. But – what does that mean? Last year, Gordon ended as the No. 12 fantasy running back while Lindsay landed as an inconsequential No. 66. Of the total of 372 rushes, Gordon only took 215 of them. He has been a solid receiver in the past, so is it reasonable to assume that he becomes the new Lindsay and yet retains most of the receptions? That’s still going to produce some fantasy value.

And while Williams enters with plenty of pedigree and apparent talent, he is a rookie that only totaled 366 career carries in college. It’s nice that he wasn’t overused, but does that result in a lack of experience that he has to gain while a perfectly good (assuming health) Gordon is on the sideline already accomplished in all facets of the offense?

There is one more major factor to consider. The Broncos rushing schedule strength in 2020 was No. 19. This year, they own the No. 1 easiest rushing schedule strength. Whichever back that runs the ball should look extra good going against that slate of games.

The safest bet, barring any future developments, is that Williams assumes the primary rusher role likely from the start – he was drafted for it and owns all the skills the role needs. But Gordon will remain involved both as a rusher and as the primary receiver out of the backfield, scant as that job has proven to be. The Broncos also have a quarterback competition that could be disrupted if they end up trading for an elite quarterback as has been the raging rumor this offseason.

That light schedule strength is a difference maker. And it could see Williams look so good, that they increase his snaps at the expense of Gordon who will be gone in 2022 anyway.

Besides, what sparks excitement in the fantasy football heart more than a rookie running back? That would be a rookie running back with a decent offensive line and the NFL-best rushing schedule.

Anthony Firkser is falling through the cracks in fantasy football

Do yourself a favor and draft Anthony Firkser.

Opportunity is the mother of invention … and fantasy football breakouts.

We all have our preferred gambles and sleeper candidates. Some of the names are mentally etched into stone; others are more “what if” types — a situation has promise, though other factors make it dicey for one reason or another.

Along those lines, Tennessee Titans tight end Anthony Firkser is in a unique situation for fantasy football purposes. He replaces Jonnu Smith as the starter in a system that has been quite friendly toward the position. However, the offseason acquisition of WR Julio Jones makes for a possible catch-22.

Jones should help clear the middle of the field to create operating room on Firkser’s behalf. But there are two factors seriously working against the young tight end that make his outlook rather murky:

1) Jones will gobble up a ton of targets alongside A.J. Brown, likely far more than the 92 Corey Davis garnered in his 2020 breakthrough season.

2) The offensive designs remain dedicated to feeding Derrick Henry.

Not ideal, but we can work with it.

Some of the pros working in Firkser’s favor:

Despite former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith leaving for Atlanta, his system will live on through the play-calling decisions of Todd Downing, also the replacement for Smith as tight ends coach after the 2019 promotion to OC. Firkser’s positional coach of two years now calls the plays … this positive cannot be understated.
In Downing’s one year as the playcaller in the NFL, his then-Oakland Raiders heavily involved tight end Jared Cook (86 targets), also while having a pair of quality WRs in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Last year, in 14 games, Smith was targeted 65 times, tied for 17th among tight ends, and finished tied for TE6 in fantasy points per game among those with at least 59 targets. Translation: Major success from limited involvement.
Defenses will be frantically trying to contain both Julio and Brown, the entire time worrying about Henry. This makes Firkser especially dangerous in the red zone and on play-action passing opportunities.
Hands. Firkser landed 76.9 percent of his contested targets in 2020, ranking third at the position, and his 73.6 percent reception rate was eighth among qualifying players. On 53 targets last year, he dropped just one ball.
Ryan Tannehill clearly trusts Firkser, making him the fourth-most targeted player on the team while playing just 32 percent of the snaps a season ago.

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For whatever it is worth, Firkser has a cheerleader in former Titans tight end and mentor Delanie Walker. “He sat under me for years and I tried to teach him everything I know, but the dude got wiggles. He can get open; he can catch the ball. I think he going to be elite,” Walker said on Turron Davenport’s podcast. After mentioning how Jones will open up the the field for his former understudy, Walker added, “Over the middle. With matchups against linebackers. And that’s gonna be hard for them to cover him, cause he destroys linebackers within seconds. It’s gonna be good.”

Fantasy football takeaway

Firkser may not rack up TE1 volume on a weekly basis, which partly makes him a better choice in standard scoring, but we witnessed Green Bay’s Robert Tonyan finish PPR TE3 out of nowhere in 2020 after catching more than four passes in only six games.

The Harvard product has a real opportunity to break out in 2021, and too many fantasy footballers are sleeping on his potential. Use that to your advantage. The position is volatile, despite being full of talented options this year. With an average draft position of 14:06 in PPR, Firkser is the 19th tight end chosen.

There is no other tight end poised to return so much value on such a minimal investment. Firkser either can be a TE1, if you choose to stock talent at other positions, or he makes for a fantastic rotational option available to owners playing the weekly matchup game.

The redemption of Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Edwards-Helaire deserves a mulligan on his rookie year.

What a disappointment.

The best offense in the NFL uses their first-round pick (1.31) on the first and best rookie running back in 2020. What’s not to like?

That’s good enough for a No. 22 finish, but he was drafted around the No. 12 running back selected. He opened the year by rushing for 138 yards on 25 carries versus the Texans (not as impressive as we later discovered). But his production would mostly be mediocre while sitting in the middle of the Chiefs offense. He only rushed in three more touchdowns after Week 1, and his role as a receiver dropped significantly after Week 3.

Drafters were hoping for a monster rookie year as we saw with Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. Instead, we saw someone stuck between a badly fading David Johnson and the mostly stumbling Miles Sanders. It wasn’t terrible. It just wasn’t anything close to a difference-maker. On a Super Bowl team no less.

Enter 2021.

The chance to reclaim the same luster that saw him tear up the SEC for 1,414 rushing yards and 55 catches for 453 yards and a total of 17 touchdowns on the way to a National Championship in 2019.

Edwards-Helaire opened his career during the COVID-19 pandemic and the lack of practices and any preseason games meant the preparation for moving from college to the NFL was less than any other college class ever had. He was hardly alone in a slow start. D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, and J.K. Dobbins all heated up at the end of their rookie seasons.

Only Jonathan Taylor hit the ground running as a rookie because Marlon Mack disappeared and forced Taylor to be a workhorse behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Plus, Philip Rivers was in his final season of “okay, so maybe I can’t do this anymore.”

The Chiefs’ offensive line was devastated by injuries, which in turn got Patrick Mahomes hurt and unable to hop away from any the Tampa Bay defensive pass rushers. They’ve rebuilt the offensive line in the offseason and should return to elite status.

Edwards-Helaire only managed the one glorious season at LSU, so he’s a bit more raw and yet not as used-up as many other elite rookies. He finally gets a full preseason to prepare this year.

A healthy Patrick Mahomes never hurts. And while Edwards-Helaire was limited to 181 rushes, the next best running back from 2020 is gone in Le’Veon Bell (63-254-2). Darrel Williams is the No. 2 and the undrafted back has never rushed for more than 41 times in his three seasons as backfield depth.

Edwards-Helaire is going around the No. 18 fantasy running back in reception-point leagues. That’s saying that the expectations are that he’ll roughly match his rookie year when he missed three games, had minimal preparation in the preseason, had an offensive line that broke down but has been rebuilt, and had to share with Le’Veon Bell who is now gone.

He deserves a mulligan on a wild 2020 season. Hopefully, on my fantasy team.

Najee Harris ready to be the top rookie

Harris steps into a workhorse role in Pittsburgh.

The first running back selected in the NFL draft is always the biggest source for fantasy optimism and this year is no different when the Steelers tabbed Najee Harris with the 1.24 pick. No matter that five quarterbacks, four wide receivers and even a tight end were selected first, Harris attracts the highest rookie draft picks and auction dollars. And for good reason.

No position cranks out immediate rookie fantasy points as running backs. No position has a shorter life span than the American Professional Running Back. Bottom line – they have the most touches of any position and offer the best potential. And the recent “first running back drafted” include Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Todd Gurley.

The most attractive element with Harris and those players is that they went to teams that did not use a backfield committee. Most NFL teams split up the load between short yardage, first and second downs, third down, receiving, goal line, and such depending on the talent and their need.

Alabama University

Harris was the workhorse for Alabama, rushing 209 times in 2019 while the next best Brian Robinson only carried 96. Last season in their National Championship run, Harris handled 251 rushes to only 91 for Robinson.

He also caught 43 passes as the busiest receiver on the team other than Heisman Winner DeVonta Smith. Though a four-year player, he only started the final two seasons so he’s not worn down as many elite backs leaving college. Alabama loves to ride their top back – just ask Derrick Henry.

He offers yet another big back from Alabama that is poised to wreck NFL defenses. Harris is 6-2, 230 pounds and runs around a 4.5 40-time. He’s a deadly combination of size, speed and power with the ability to catch like a third-down back. He is very quick, patient, and has great vision. He’s even a solid pass blocker with plenty of size to protect the quarterback when needed.

He can be a violent runner and may end up shortening his eventual career with his willingness to take on tacklers and get the extra yards. But that spells success as a rookie back and hence, the first one chosen last April.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The rookie shows up in Pittsburgh as the new starting running back. James Conner left for Arizona. Benny Snell is the likely No. 2 back again this year but there is talk about him not making the final cut. Kalen Ballage was also signed but he only managed 3.3 yards on his career-high 91 carries for the Chargers and only that because he was asked to replace Austin Ekeler for three games. Anthony McFarland was a fourth-round rookie but only ran for 113 yards on 33 carries (3.4 yards per carry).

Harris is the only Steelers’ back with any pedigree or expectations.

The Steelers’ offense bogged down last year with James Conner and Benny Snell unable to run the ball. The backfield combined for just 1,183 rushing yards (No. 29) and 350 receiving yards (No. 30). This from a backfield that relied on Le’Veon Bell to great success just a couple of seasons prior.

The Steelers offensive line is no longer an elite unit and is not an advantage. But the passing offense hopes to improve with a healthier Ben Roethlisberger throwing farther down the field this year. That helps spread out the defense and yields plenty of opportunities to dump the ball off to the running back.

The Steelers also enjoy the No. 5 strength of schedule for rushing. This is, by far, the best situation that any rookie running back will encounter this season. There are no other first-year backs that are locks to lead their backfields in touches.

Great situation, great rushing schedule, tremendous success in college against top-flight opponents, all the measurables of an elite workhorse, and minimal competition for touches. He’s going as the No. 12 running back in fantasy drafts, around the middle of the second round.

You’ll never see him that cheap again.