Fantasy football: Players entering a contract year in 2020

Every bit of data helps gain an edge, including knowledge of which players are entering a contract year.

While simply entering a contract year is not a guarantee of increased fantasy football production, gamers look for any extra on-field motivation to put their fake squads over the top. The key when evaluating such data is to treat it as another piece of the puzzle and not get too caught up in this extra info.

All notable players listed below will be unrestricted free agents as of March 2021. The data is based on USA TODAY Sports’ partner Spotrac.com’s free-agent charts.

Notes: Ages reflect how old the player will be upon entering free agency. Players in bold font are considered to have the most to gain from a strong season.

Pos
Player
Age
Team
QB
Mitchell Trubisky
27
CHI
QB
Jameis Winston
27
NO
QB
Dak Prescott
28
DAL
QB
Jacoby Brissett
28
IND
QB
Tyrod Taylor
32
LAC
QB
Andy Dalton
33
DAL
QB
Brian Hoyer
35
NE
QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick
38
MIA
QB
Philip Rivers
39
IND
RB
Brian Hill
25
ATL
RB
Joe Mixon
25
CIN
RB
Marlon Mack
25
IND
RB
Samaje Perine
25
CIN
RB
Leonard Fournette
26
JAC
RB
Matt Breida
26
MIA
RB
Kareem Hunt
26
CLE
RB
Dalvin Cook
26
MIN
RB
Alvin Kamara
26
NO
RB
James Conner
26
PIT
RB
Tarik Cohen
26
CHI
RB
Jamaal Williams
26
GB
RB
Wayne Gallman
26
NYG
RB
Aaron Jones
26
GB
RB
Chris Carson
26
SEA
RB
Corey Clement
26
PHI
RB
Todd Gurley
27
ATL
RB
Derrick Henry
27
TEN
RB
Kenyan Drake
27
ARI
RB
T.J. Yeldon
27
BUF
RB
Tevin Coleman
28
SF
RB
Malcolm Brown
28
LAR
RB
DeAndre Washington
28
KC
RB
James White
29
NE
RB
Damien Williams
29
KC
RB
Jerick McKinnon
29
SF
RB
Devontae Booker
29
LVR
RB
Dion Lewis
30
NYG
RB
Chris Thompson
30
JAC
RB
Rex Burkhead
31
NE
RB
Adrian Peterson
36
WAS
RB
Frank Gore
38
NYJ
WR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
24
PIT
WR
Curtis Samuel
25
CAR
WR
Chris Godwin
25
TB
WR
Corey Davis
26
TEN
WR
John Ross
26
CIN
WR
Kendrick Bourne
26
SF
WR
Demarcus Robinson
26
KC
WR
Zay Jones
26
LVR
WR
Tajae Sharpe
26
MIN
WR
Laquon Treadwell
26
ATL
WR
Rashard Higgins
26
CLE
WR
Josh Reynolds
26
LAR
WR
Breshad Perriman
27
NYJ
WR
Will Fuller
27
HOU
WR
Devin Funchess
27
GB
WR
Geronimo Allison
27
DET
WR
Kenny Golladay
27
DET
WR
Dede Westbrook
27
JAC
WR
Trent Taylor
27
SF
WR
Allen Robinson
28
CHI
WR
Sammy Watkins
28
KC
WR
Willie Snead
28
BAL
WR
Keelan Cole
28
JAC
WR
Chris Conley
28
JAC
WR
Nelson Agholor
28
LVR
WR
Phillip Dorsett
28
SEA
WR
Cooper Kupp
28
LAR
WR
Josh Doctson
28
NYJ
WR
Keenan Allen
29
LAC
WR
Kenny Stills
29
HOU
WR
Albert Wilson
29
MIA
WR
Marqise Lee
29
NE
WR
Cordarrelle Patterson
30
CHI
WR
T.Y. Hilton
31
IND
WR
Marvin Jones
31
DET
WR
Travis Benjamin
31
SF
WR
Mohamed Sanu
32
NE
WR
A.J. Green
33
CIN
WR
Danny Amendola
35
DET
WR
Ted Ginn Jr.
36
CHI
WR
Larry Fitzgerald
38
ARI
TE
Hunter Henry
26
LAC
TE
Ricky Seals-Jones
26
KC
TE
Jonnu Smith
26
TEN
TE
Jake Butt
26
DEN
TE
Gerald Everett
27
LAR
TE
Adam Shaheen
27
CHI
TE
George Kittle
27
SF
TE
Jeff Heuerman
28
DEN
TE
Trey Burton
29
IND
TE
Rob Gronkowski
32
TB
TE
Jared Cook
34
NO
TE
Greg Olsen
36
SEA
TE
Jason Witten
39
LVR

 

Robby Anderson hits a small jackpot with Panthers, fantasy owners left scratching

Anderson heads to the Carolina Panthers, but did he destroy his fantasy football value with one stroke of a pen?

(Brad Penner, USA TODAY Sports)

What are fantasy football owners getting out of adding former New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson now that he is a member of the Carolina Panthers after inking a two-year, $20 million deal?

The answer is summed up in a few words: Streaky playmaker.

Why do we know this? Three straight seasons of consistent year-end figures that show a trend of week-to-week ebbs and flows like few others.

Table: Robby Anderson’s career stats (2016-19)

Season
Team
G
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
FanPts/G
2016
NYJ
14
78
42
587
14.0
2
3
42
0
116.9
8.4
2017
NYJ
16
114
63
941
14.9
7
3
9
0
200.0
12.5
2018
NYJ
14
94
50
752
15.0
6
2
-8
0
160.4
11.5
2019
NYJ
16
96
52
779
15.0
5
1
4
0
160.3
10.0

The scoring used in these tables is non-PPR — his optimal setting for fantasy returns. The takeaway should be regardless of the system or quarterback, the core metrics of Anderson’s game do not change to any notable degree. His catch-to-touchdown ratio hasn’t varied more than two grabs in the last three years, and Anderson’s yards-per-reception average hasn’t wavered enough to speak of since he entered the league.

When looking at the yearlong results on a weekly basis, we see massive swings in production.

Table: Robby Anderson’s 2019 per-game statistics

Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
BUF
7
3
23
7.7
0
0
0
0
5.3
2
CLE
6
4
81
20.3
0
0
0
0
12.1
3
at NE
5
3
11
3.7
0
0
0
0
4.1
5
at PHI
3
1
16
16
0
0
0
0
2.6
6
DAL
8
5
125
25
1
0
0
0
23.5
7
NE
8
1
10
10
0
0
0
0
2.0
8
at JAC
6
4
43
10.8
0
0
0
0
8.3
9
at MIA
4
2
33
16.5
0
0
0
0
5.3
10
NYG
3
1
11
11
0
0
0
0
2.1
11
at WAS
3
1
6
6.0
1
0
0
0
7.6
12
OAK
5
4
86
21.5
1
0
0
0
18.6
13
at CIN
10
7
101
14.4
0
0
0
0
17.1
14
MIA
11
7
117
16.7
1
1
4
0
25.1
15
at BAL
6
4
66
16.5
0
0
0
0
10.6
16
PIT
4
2
32
16
1
0
0
0
11.2
17
at BUF
7
3
18
6.0
0
0
0
0
4.8
  • All five scores came in different games, which is good for fantasy owners in weekly, head-to-head leagues.
  • Unfortunately, 80 percent of them came in a five-games span.
  • Since Week 12, he closed out the year strong in all but the finale, and it wasn’t for a lack of targets in that one.

Table: Robby Anderson’s 2018 per-game statistics

Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
at DET
1
1
41
41
1
1
-9
0
10.2
2
MIA
5
3
27
9.0
0
0
0
0
5.7
3
at CLE
4
2
22
11
0
0
0
0
4.2
4
at JAC
6
2
18
9
0
0
0
0
3.8
5
DEN
5
3
123
41
2
0
0
0
27.3
6
IND
5
3
39
13
0
0
0
0
6.9
7
MIN
10
3
44
14.7
0
0
0
0
7.4
9
at MIA
7
4
32
8.0
0
1
1
0
7.3
12
NE
5
2
22
11
0
0
0
0
4.2
13
at TEN
7
4
48
12
0
0
0
0
8.8
14
at BUF
7
4
76
19
1
0
0
0
17.6
15
HOU
11
7
96
13.7
1
0
0
0
22.6
16
GB
13
9
140
15.6
1
0
0
0
29.0
17
at NE
8
3
24
8.0
0
0
0
0
5.4
  • Six touchdowns and half came in three consecutive games late in the year.
  • One score over the first month, and it came on a lone grab.
  • Struggled to exploit top-level competition most of the time.

Table: Robby Anderson’s 2017 per-game statistics

Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
at BUF
8
4
22
5.5
0
0
0
0
6.2
2
at OAK
4
2
28
14.0
0
0
0
0
4.8
3
MIA
6
3
95
31.7
1
0
0
0
18.5
4
JAC
6
3
59
19.7
0
0
0
0
8.9
5
at CLE
5
2
16
8.0
0
0
0
0
3.6
6
NE
12
4
76
19
0
0
0
0
11.6
7
at MIA
5
3
35
11.7
1
0
0
0
12.5
8
ATL
6
6
104
17.3
1
1
1
0
22.5
9
BUF
5
4
48
12
1
0
0
0
14.8
10
at TB
7
4
85
21.3
1
0
0
0
18.5
12
CAR
10
6
146
24.3
2
0
0
0
32.6
13
KC
12
8
107
13.4
0
1
7
0
19.4
14
at DEN
6
3
27
9.0
0
0
0
0
5.7
15
at NO
12
5
40
8.0
0
0
0
0
9.0
16
LAC
7
5
51
10.2
0
0
0
0
10.1
17
at NE
3
1
2
2.0
0
1
1
0
1.3
  • Unlike the two more recent seasons, Anderson didn’t close out strong in 2017. But he also didn’t start hot, finding the end zone only once in the first six outings.
  • He did, however, score six times in a five-game span from Week 7-12. The Jets were on bye in Week 11.
  • Anderson averaged just 3.7 catches in the 10 games without a score that year.

[lawrence-related id=448889,449273]

Obviously more goes into a player’s value than his talents and past. The problem here is even if one overlooks Anderson’s demonstrable traits as a football player, he enters a lousy situation to achieve his potential from a statistical perspective.

In Carolina, he’ll catch passes from a game manager in Teddy Bridgewater and have to fight for targets in a moderate-volume passing attack with reception-hog D.J. Moore and do-all wideout Curtis Samuel. We haven’t even addressed that guy in the backfield with 107-plus catches in consecutive seasons…

Going one step further, a rookie head coach and first-time offensive coordinator shouldn’t get the benefit of the doubt 99 percent of the time, and this isn’t the one that falls in that 1 percentile.

Fantasy football takeaway

Few receivers can take a football anywhere on the field and turn it into six points in the way Anderson is capable of doing, but players need more tricks in the bag than “go deep” to become a multifaceted fantasy contributor.

It is far more likely that we’ve seen his ceiling already when compared to what to expect in Carolina. We also may know his floor to be a risk-reward matchup-based, WR3/flex play. But all of that may come with a not so obvious trapdoor in Carolina’s offense, and he realistically could be facing a ceiling somewhere in that flex range if consistency is on your radar — and it needs to be.

As mentioned, his value is at its peak in non-PPR leagues. To Anderson’s credit, he appears to have cleaned up his off-the-field antics, so at least that is going for him.

Fantasy footballers will overreact to Emmanuel Sanders joining Saints

Despite an upgrade at quarterback, Sanders still offers plenty of concerns after signing with the Saints.

Fresh off of his 33rd birthday, free-agent wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders has agreed to terms with the New Orleans Saints, and fantasy footballers should be guardedly optimistic. In the last two years, Sanders has rebounded impressively from a torn Achilles tendon and entered what likely will be his last meaningful shot at free agency.

The San Francisco 49ers traded for Sanders after Week 7 and he made an immediate impact, scoring in his first two games. He would play 17 games thanks to being traded before Denver’s and after San Fran’s bye week. The final eight games with the Niners would result in just one touchdown scored, however.

Sanders still looked fresh by the end of the year, even into the Super Bowl. We could be talking about a different team hoisting the Lombardi Trophy if Jimmy Garoppolo made a better throw, but that’s irrelevant beyond illustrating how much a precise difference in timing can wipe six points off of the board and out of the old fantasy box score. Either way, Sanders still was motoring into February.

Familiar problems?

Sanders going to the Saints creates a whiff of uncertainty for his fantasy football value. The main reason is the greater potential for erratic play or inconsistent success. There are so many mouths to feed in this passing game, plus the Saints will remain committed to running the ball. Michael Thomas, Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara all can and often will come ahead of Sanders in the pecking order of a randomly chosen play. Toss in Tre’Quan Smith and even touches lost to Taysom Hill … This is a crowded offense if anyone is expecting volume from Sanders.

No one wants to think the worst about someone as remarkable as Drew Brees, but the conclusion of the runway is nearing, and who is to say 2020 won’t end poorly for the 41-year-old? Last year, he missed five games with a thumb injury, albeit kind of freaky in nature. The point being, don’t lose sight of Brees being old, and Father Time being undefeated.

Thomas is going to feast as he does, and Sanders will have to do more with less — which isn’t too much different than his time in San Fran. The offense worked within the confines of a run-heavy, three-headed backfield that passed when the situation called for it. There was an ascending rookie in Deebo Samuel taking touches as the year progressed, and a dominant tight end in George Kittle rarely far from the football. Quarterback drop-off aside, the 49ers also limited Sanders’ looks but for different reasons.

[lawrence-related id=449273]

So where does that leave us? Sanders averaged eight targets a game in 2019 over two rosters. That was a fraction less than his 12-game average for 2018 while exclusively in Denver (8.12/game). Sanders saw only 4.7 targets per contest in his entire time with the 49ers. Averaging five looks a week in New Orleans is going to be done with plenty of peaks and valleys along the way.

Some game plans will call for Thomas to take over the show, and Kamara will do this thing in others. The best hope for Sanders is a renewed penchant for finding the end zone, like he has done just one lonely time in his NFL career. He caught nine TDs in 2014, but it took 101 total catches on nearly nine targets an outing. This time, he’ll need to be insanely efficient, and we just haven’t see it in his career.

Fantasy football outlook

Sanders is a flex option in PPR leagues, and gamers looking to invest in standard scoring can treat him as a backup or borderline flex, but only if three other wideouts are required starters.

Due to a lack of consistently reliable involvement, a history of being allergic-adjacent to the end zone, and the reality that he is a 33-year-old receiver barely two years removed from a devastating injury, just how much mediocre does one fantasy football option need to be before gamers draft him accordingly. There’s a strong probability Sanders will get overvalued by someone in your league, and there’s an even better chance he will not return worthwhile fantasy stats for such an investment. Understand the pitfalls before committing too much draft capital.

What’s next for Todd Gurley after being released by the Rams?

Which teams are expected to show the most interest in Gurley?

(Kirby Lee, USA TODAY Sports)

Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley is being released in a move that allows the team to avoid paying him $10.5 million in what would have been guaranteed money as of March 20, even though it will result in a $2.9 million hit against LA’s 2020 salary cap.

His arthritic knee was apparent in a visible lack of explosiveness in 2019, which is bound to rule out many RB-needy teams from showing serious interest in Gurley. Compounding the problem, teams aren’t bringing in players for physicals right now, so unless something is worked out with his local medical evaluators, Gurley may be forced to wait longer than most remaining free agents before signing.

Teams that really could use him will have to take a long look at last year’s game tape. Gurley showed his sniffer for the end zone still works, but the dynamic plays were practically non-existent, and his receiving involvement was deliberately capped. He may be forced to take a one-year or incentive-laden deal, and don’t completely discount the idea of Gurley not being signed at all before Week 1. It may seem crazy, but we don’t know what kind of money he will request vs. how teams view his market to be at this time.

Presuming no team currently views him as “the man” anymore, Gurley will be asked to share reps. His versatility allows teams to utilize him as a full-time back on limited reps, a situational rusher (goal line, for example), or a pass-catching specialist. One easily can imagine his intent is to sign with a contender, as well.

[lawrence-related id=449273]

Buffalo Bills: Gurley would be a good mentor and change of pace for the more explosive Devin Singletary. Touchdowns galore would be in Gurley’s forecast as a Bill.

Kansas City Chiefs: Gurley could give the Chiefs what they thought LeSean McCoy was capable of delivering in 2019. Complementing Damien Williams is a need, but at what price?

Detroit Lions: Pairing him with the injury-prone Kerryon Johnson is somewhat risky but isn’t outlandish for a team in dire need of a consistent rushing attack.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs could be one of the leading contenders, although Melvin Gordon is a safer option with similar upside.

Miami Dolphins: Even after signing Jordan Howard, running back remains a moderate concern for an offense craving additional weaponry.

Atlanta Falcons: This one intrigues me a fair amount. Atlanta is arguably a contender with a few breaks going its way, and the backfield needs to be addressed. Cheaper and faster is probably how it will be done, though.

Of those teams, Buffalo would be the best-case scenario for Gurley’s fantasy football prospects.

Fantasy football outlook

As mentioned, he could help PPR gamers if a team chooses to run Gurley less and throw more passes his way. It stands to reason a player of his pedigree around the stripe should be relegated to such a role, perhaps exclusively.

We can speculate six ways to Sunday, but the reality boils down to this: If last year’s Gurley is the best we’re ever going to see again from him, regardless of the team, he is physically capped at being an inconsistent RB2 whose game is overly reliant on scoring touchdowns.

Tom Brady to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers immediately improves his fantasy football value

At 43 years old in the 2020 season, does Tom Brady have enough left for one more elite fantasy season?

(David Butler II, USA TODAY Sports)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to sign former New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to an undisclosed deal that will pay him at least $30 million per year, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. According to his sources, the only thing holding up the finalization of the contract is TB12 making it official that he’ll be a member of the TB Bucs.

The pluses for are huge from a fantasy football perspective. New England has far more question marks going into the summer months, when it comes to offensive personnel, and the talent disparity is readily evident. Tampa Bay’s wide receivers are arguably the best in the business, led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Free-agent wideout Breshad Perriman could return, as well, after showing he can get it done late last season. Toss in tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate to create one of the most dangerous passing games in league.

Brady, who’ll be 43 years old come Week 1, has lost a smidge of his deep-ball ability, but his accuracy remains surgical, and there’s more football knowledge between those years than anyone can imagine. Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians loves to sling the ball, but he may need to manage Brady’s arm reps, at least in practice. It begs the question about a trustworthy checkdown. Brady at his best has had slot guys like Julian Edelman and Wes Welker that he can throw to in his sleep, and this team’s personnel is geared toward Arians’ “no risk it, no biscuit” vertical mentality of driving the ball down the field.

[lawrence-related id=449389]

The six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback will play behind a quality offensive line, ranked seventh by ProFootballFocus.com. Right tackle Demar Dotson is a free agent and is hardly irreplaceable. The position is deep in the draft, and there are a few respectable free agents available if Dotson doesn’t return. The interior combination of center Ryan Jensen and left guard Ali Marpet combined to rank as the second-best duo for pass protection up the middle, per PFF.

Running back is in dire need of an upgrade. Peyton Barber is a free agent, and Ronald Jones was hit or miss last season. The draft or free agency could turn around the fortunes of this running game in a hurry, though. The running game doesn’t need to be elite, although a reliable backfield is the best way to help keep Brady’s arm from falling off … if the Bucs win it all in 2020 with the GOAT throwing it 650-plus times, something tells me Arians won’t care in hindsight. For the record, Brady threw 613 passes vs. the 626 Jameis Winston tossed for the Bucs last year.

The system itself is likely to be tailored to Brady’s preferences for methodical passing, slowing matriculating up the field with checkdowns to backs, underneath routes to the slot receivers, and chain-moving throws to the tight end position. Arians’ offenses never have been great for tight ends, and Howard was an unmitigated disaster most of 2019. Brate was serviceable went called upon.

Arians has worked with marquee quarterbacks before, including Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning, and he resurrected Carson Palmer’s career. Arians is known for his creativity in the passing game, and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has received praise for his hand in the explosive system. There’s plenty to like about the combination of these coaches and Brady’s talents.

Tampa Bay has an up-and-coming defense under coordinator Todd Bowles, and two teams in this division are trending the wrong way. New Orleans will be the primary competition for Brady’s Bucs. Outside of two AFC powerhouses, Brady’s former conference is wide open. It will be much tougher to succeed in the NFC’s parity-laced talent distribution.

Fantasy football outlook

At 43 years old in the 2020 season, does Brady have enough left for one more elite fantasy season? He finished 14th last year in what surely can be classified as a down season. The weaponry has dramatically improved with Brady’s move, and the 2019 iteration of this team posted the second-best fantasy football passer numbers in the league.

Fantasy football drafters should bump Brady up into the lower tier of No. 1 fantasy passers, although it would be foolish to not add a top-flight backup in case he proves to be mortal.

One thing should be for certain in this situation: Never underestimate the cavernous chip on Brady’s shoulder.

Philip Rivers joins the Indianapolis Colts, maximizing his fantasy football value

Where does Philip Rivers fit into fantasy football plays after signing with the Colts?

In what quite possibly was the worst-kept secret in the NFL, Philip Rivers is joining the Indianapolis Colts. It was a natural fit with connections dating back to his days in San Diego where head coach Frank Reich was his positional coach and playcaller, and Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni was a quarterbacks coach.

There is so much to like about the situation. Rivers has arguably the best offensive line in the league now. It ranked 11th in pass protection and second in run blocking last year, according to ProFootballFocus.com. Marlon Mack is among the most dynamic rushers in the NFL, and fellow running back Nyheim Hines offers a dangerous weapon out of the backfield. Playing in a dome never hurts the stats, either.

Indianapolis has T.Y. Hilton as one of the league’s most dynamic receivers, and second-year wideout Parris Campbell stands to be much better with a year under his belt. He faced great adversity in 2019 as a rookie, which tends to make players mature faster. Tight end Jack Doyle is far from elite but has serviceable traits in the checkdown game as well as around the stripe. Expect another receiver to be signed, drafted or landed via trade. The offense needs someone with reliable hands over the middle of the field who can challenge for clutch grabs on third downs.

[lawrence-related id=448889]

Rivers is 38 years old and lacked a little mustard on his fastball last season. He knows the window is closing quickly, which can tend to create extra pressure. Indianapolis is in a rather capable defensive division, and there’s no guarantee Rivers will have strong chemistry with Hilton.

Fantasy football outlook

Rivers is entering the riskiest fantasy season of his career since becoming the starter. Interestingly, though, there really wasn’t a clearly better situation for him. Tampa Bay would have been close, but the line isn’t quite as good, and there’s no obvious running game to rely on. Throwing it 50 times again isn’t how Rivers will maximize his fantasy football returns. At 38, with a questionable arm, no one wants to see him sling it that much anyway.

The problem that haunted him at times was being forced to do too much for a 2019 Los Angeles Chargers team that was out of sorts all season thanks to poor line play, injuries, and the ramifications of a Melvin Gordon hold out. In fact, doing too much has been a consistent theme when things haven’t gone well for Rivers over his 15 years in the NFL. As with most of his career, fantasy footballers will be resigned to accepting the bad with the good when drafting the vet. Rivers will light it up some weeks and toss multiple picks the next.

We know he’s tough as nails, and Rivers still played at a high enough level in 2019 to get the job done. Never underestimate his competitiveness. Unless Indianapolis lands a can’t-miss rookie receiver or coaxes a proven veteran into the mix, Rivers remains a better reserve passer in conventional fake leagues. He will offer starting utility with the right matchups and can maintain last year’s No. 13 overall fantasy quarterback value by staving off Father Time one more season.

Dolphins signing Jordan Howard creates a fantasy football opportunity

(Eric Hartline, USA TODAY Sports) Running back Jordan Howard’s NFL career began with a pair of strong seasons and one unimpressive year for the Chicago Bears before he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles last offseason. He scored 32 offensive …

(Eric Hartline, USA TODAY Sports)

Running back Jordan Howard‘s NFL career began with a pair of strong seasons and one unimpressive year for the Chicago Bears before he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles last offseason. He scored 32 offensive touchdowns in three and half seasons, which is nothing to scoff at for fantasy football purposes.

It wasn’t always pretty, though. The versatile running back never seemed to fit into Matt Nagy’s offense in the Windy City, but then the move to Philly created a head-scratcher due to the same general offensive system being in place. Prior to a lingering ankle injury, which cut his season to only nine games in 2019, Howard was showing signs of his pre-2018 self. His yards-per-carry average rebounded to a respectable 4.4, and Howard’s touchdown efficiency rating improved to a personal-best 19.8 carries per score. He is still only 25 years old entering Week 1.

Table: Jordan Howard career stats (2016-19)

Year
Team
Gm
Att
Yards
Avg.
TD
Targ.
Rec
Yards
Avg.
TD
PPR
PPR/Gm
2016
Chicago Bears
15
252
1,313
5.2
6
50
29
298
10.3
1
232.1
15.5
2017
Chicago Bears
16
276
1,120
4.1
9
32
23
125
5.4
0
201.5
12.6
2018
Chicago Bears
16
250
935
3.7
9
27
20
145
7.3
0
182
11.4
2019
Philadelphia Eagles
9
119
525
4.4
6
14
10
69
6.9
1
111.4
12.4

In Miami, the current competition for touches is scant. There is little doubt the Dolphins will address the position one way or another to complement Howard, likely inking someone whose focus is the passing game. In the event this isn’t the case — which would be surprising — Howard is “the guy” in an offense that intends to run it. He still should be viewed as the primary back when someone else is added.

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Miami has a defense that has improved in the offseason, but Howard’s carries will come behind an offensive line that absolutely needs to get better. Veteran playcaller Chan Gailey came out of retirement to help lead a youthful offense that has a well-seasoned Ryan Fitzpatrick currently tabbed to start under center. There still plenty of moving pieces that will need to be accounted for in the coming weeks, so keeping one’s expectations in check is wise.

Fantasy football outlook

It’s all about understanding the situation and the expectations. We’re looking at a ground-up rebuild that began last year and will continue for at least another offseason. Gailey’s offensive experience helps, and his willingness to mold the system to the team’s talent shouldn’t be overlooked.

Miami will not always be able to do what they want on offense, and it will result in a detrimental shift away from Howard at times. He also has a few things to prove on his own, so “intriguing” is the best way of describing is fantasy football forecast. The AFC East is a tough division from a defensive perspective, too. His game isn’t the most explosive, and while he is a capable receiver, there are real limitations to his ability in this area of the offensive designs.

Despite the drawbacks, it is all about opportunities for Howard. Monitor the moves made along the line and at wide receiver. Having safety in mind suggests Howard is somewhere in the RB3/flex conversation when composing a roster, and his track record offers hope for No. 2 production in traditional scoring formats. He will come at a fair or even bargain price in most settings.

Fantasy football reaction: Stefon Diggs traded to the Buffalo Bills

Disgruntled receiver Stefon Diggs was granted his trade wish, heading to the Buffalo Bills.

After voicing frustration with his role in 2019, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs posted a cryptic message on social media during the opening hours of free agency, and he eventually was indeed dealt to the Buffalo Bills for draft picks.

We will investigate the prospects of Minnesota’s fantasy football receivers in a future article. Today’s focus is on Diggs’ role with the Bills. Buffalo clearly has shown dedication to improve the talent around quarterback Josh Allen dating back to last offseason. WRs John Brown and Cole Beasley were free-agent additions to the Bills a year ago, and both played well throughout the year. Brown turns 30 this year, and Beasley’s game is rather one-dimensional. While serviceable, neither player has that coveted x-factor.

Entering 2019, Diggs was more of a glorified possession guy than anything, although he displayed the ability to shake free as the New Orleans Saints can attest. Last season, however, the Maryland product landed only 63 balls in 15 games but went for 17.9 yards per grab. His game in Minnesota has proven to be inconsistently productive, and most of his body of work points to him profiling as a WR2 in need of a standout opposite Diggs. Buffalo doesn’t have that going for them, so he’s going to be tasked with stepping up his game.

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The Bills have a talented running back in Devin Singletary, and the offensive line is sound. Young tight end Dawson Knox displayed potential as a rookie and has plenty of upside. The defense is among the best in the business, and the run-first system suggests Diggs doesn’t have sheer target volume on his side. Unlike 2018’s heavily utilized season (102-1,021-9), Diggs showed that doesn’t matter to sustain success. He posted career-best yardage in ’19 under a run-oriented offensive command from head coach Mike Zimmer.

Fantasy football takeaway

Diggs, 26, is prone to spurts of elite play and then disappearing. He has done it several times with Minnesota in multiple offenses. In Buffalo, he won’t have a roof over his head in the winter months, but he’s used to cold climates in general. The outlook is somewhere in the No. 2 PPR receiver territory as a ceiling and a consistently playable flex in any format.

Some fantasy footballers are bound to overvalue Diggs. While he does have a reasonable degree of potential to exceed expectations, Diggs comes with nearly as much of a chance to disappoint.

Jimmy Graham lands in Chicago

Jimmy Graham to the Bears

MARK HOFFMAN/MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL

The Packers parted ways with the 33-year old Jimmy Graham after two disappointing seasons that settled for his best in 2018 with only 55 catches for 636 yards and two touchdowns. He comes off a 38-catch, 447-yard effort with three touchdowns last year despite playing all 16 games for a Packers team that was desperate for receiving help for the last two seasons.

He’s ten seasons into his career that peaked in 2013 in his last full season with the Saints. Now with his fourth franchise, Graham is trying to just squeeze more out if his declining career.

The Bears certainly need receiving help though the starting quarterback won’t necessarily be Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears are openly looking for a veteran to challenge the former first-round pick with Teddy Bridgewater and Nick Foles at the top of the list. That could mean that the quarterback situation is not stable during the season.

While HC Matt Nagy enters his third season and has a heavy hand in the offense, the Bears are onto Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator. This has not been an offense that has used the position much in the two seasons under Nagy. Last year, no tight end totaled more than 87 yards and combined for only two scores from the six that caught passes. 2018 was better when Trey Burton ended with 569 yards and six scores on 54 receptions.

Fantasy Outlook

The premise is that Graham could help as a red-zone target. He re-established himself as a fantasy option in 2017 when he caught ten touchdowns in his final season with the Seahawks. He racked up 65 catches for 923 yards and six scores in 2016. But his time as a Packer only showed an aging tight end that had not only lost a step but one that no longer offered much as a scoring factor. Graham only totaled five touchdowns over his two years in Green Bay.

He still has a name that once carried plenty of fantasy relevance. But since he turned 30 years old,  he hasn’t offered much beyond any average tight end. With the quarterback situation undetermined and potentially in question the entire season, there isn’t any reason to expect an uptick of any measure for Graham’s production.

The Bears spent a 2.13 pick on Adam Shaheen in 2017 with never more than 13 catches in a season. Trey Burton topped out with 569 yards and six scores in 2018 but had a broken hip in 2019. He’s been a bust as a free-agent signing and bringing in 33-year-old Graham doesn’t look to improve upon that streak.

Fantasy football free agency roundup

NFL free agency will drastically help reshape the fantasy football landscape as the new league year begins.

(Robert Deutsch, USA TODAY Sports)

Now that NFL free agency is upon us, here is where we’ll run through the fantasy football outlooks for trades, re-signings, midrange players and tag recipients.

This analysis will be updated as players sign/re-sign in free agency, so be sure to check back regularly.

Signed with new team or traded

Links to individual analysis

TE Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals

RB David Johnson, Houston Texans

TE Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons

Re-signed/extensions

QB Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: A four-year, $118 million extension was signed on the eve of the tampering window, securing Tannehill’s role as the starting quarterback for the near future. He developed a rapport with 2019 rookie wideout A.J. Brown and has one of the best running games to keep defenses honest, provided Derrick Henry indeed signs his franchise tender and doesn’t pull a Le’Veon Bell. Tannehill is among the more intriguing back fantasy picks and will be chosen as a rotational starter by gamers willing to wait on the position.

QB Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: There’s not a lot to say here since he wasn’t facing free agency, and Cousins’ 2020 situation doesn’t change by getting this extension (two years, $66 million). Keep tabs on Stefon Diggs possibly getting dealt, though. Cousins, for now, remains a top-tier backup with matchup utility, especially when it appears the Vikes may struggle to run the ball.

Franchise/TRANSITION tagged

QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Prescott will not be able to negotiate with any team but the Cowboys, and the goal is to work out a long-term deal. The offensive system will remain the same as in 2019 with Kellen Moore coming back as the playcaller under new head coach Mike McCarthy. Dak is a top-five fantasy quarterback if Amari Cooper returns.

RB Derrick Henry: Tennessee Titans: Unless Henry refuses to sign his tender and holds out most or all of the year, he will be the bell cow once again in Tennessee. There remains a chance he signs a long-term contract before things could get ugly. All things equal, short of losing his right tackle, life appears to be business as usual. RB1 all day long.

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WR A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals: A rookie quarterback as Cincy’s 2020 starter is all but etched into stone, which is a likely detriment for Green. However, he remains the most gifted wideout in an offense that won’t be scared to throw it when needed, so he has that working for him. Expect WR2 stats as a ceiling, and the combo of age and injuries are conspiring against Green.

TE Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers: This one isn’t as cut and dried as some of the above inclusions, because we don’t know LA’s quarterback for Week 1 yet. Some signs say Tom Brady, others suggest a rookie or even Tyrod Taylor as a stopgap. On talent alone, Henry is a midrange No. 1 in fantasy, but other factors, like an undeniable injury risk and this being the first full year of playcalling responsibility for Shane Steichen, should give owners pause.

RB Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals: No more David Johnson, or his punitive salary, could lead to this transition tag be little more than formality before a long-term deal is reached. Drake exploded in this system late last year, and now the addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins has to get the juices flowing. Drake is risky, and now the Air Raid system may be fully deployed, which could force the former Miami Dolphin to be overly reliant on efficiency. Those concerns aside, don’t go overboard on draft day for a player whose career has largely been a disappointment, even if not entirely his fault. Give him the old RB2 treatment in all single-year formats.

Remains unsigned

RB Devonta Freeman, free agent:

RB Lamar Miller, free agent:

RB Dion Lewis, free agent:

RB LeSean McCoy, free agent:

RB Theo Riddick, free agent:

RB Peyton Barber, free agent:

RB Frank Gore, free agent:

WR Randall Cobb, free agent:

WR Devin Funchess, free agent:

WR Breshad Perriman, free agent:

TE Jimmy Graham, free agent:

TE Jordan Reed, free agent:

TE Delanie Walker, free agent:

TE Vance McDonald, free agent:

TE Jason Witten, free agent:

TE Tyler Eifert, free agent: