Quarterback trends

QBs are throwing fewer TDs, rushing in more TDs, and rarely make a difference more than two straight years.

The 2023 season is over, and it felt like a good year but not so much a great year. There were good surprises like Jordan Love, Brock Purdy and Sam Howell.  There were jaw-dropping fantasy points from C.J. Stroud. But injuries and disappointments held their typical impact.

Let’s look how the fantasy position stacked up against other years and break down who did what. We’re considering the Top 10 quarterbacks from each year since they were the ones you should have been using.

Top 10 fantasy quarterback totals

Year Runs Yards TDs Pass Comp Yards TDs FF Pts
2014 443 2,051 14 5,841 3,830 44,683 318 3,795
2015 477 1,886 24 5,787 3,753 44,256 332 3,873
2016 442 1,991 24 5,791 3,758 44,112 302 3,757
2017 564 2,701 20 5,302 3,367 39,829 281 3,506
2018 497 2,092 22 5,687 3,837 44,776 338 3,932
2019 785 4,151 38 5,344 3,442 40,447 275 3,765
2020 795 4,167 51 5,408 3,653 42,134 352 4,237
2021* 600 2,834 30 5,936 3,956 45,002 352 4,122
2022* 729 3,248 35 5,506 3,714 42,171 283 3,775
2023* 875 4,428 59 5,691 3,761 42,094 287 4,050

When reviewing totals, it is relevant that the NFL went to a 17-game season in 2021, so an extra game is involved. That’s only about a 6% increase, so 1,000 yards would become 1,060 yards. With ten quarterbacks and 170 potential games, not that big of a deal.

The increase in games coincided with the top passing year or 2021, when the Top 10 quarterbacks averaged around 4,500 yards and Tom Brady and Justin Herbert both broke 5,000 yards. Only Patrick Mahomes did that in 2022. No NFL quarterback threw for over 4,625 yards last season. The pure passers of Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins both had injuries that contributed. But 2021 had five quarterbacks throwing for more yardage than any 2023 quarterback. Passing stats were down.

What was up, and historically so, was the rushing totals. The trend has been increasing for fantasy quarterbacks and 2023 served up nearly double the rushes as we saw ten years prior. 2020 was a good year for rushing touchdowns, but was padded with the “tush push”. Quarterbacks ran in more scores than ever before.

Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts were the top runners and all were Top 10. Typical rushers of Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones didn’t play for half of the year and Justin Fields ran for 657 yards as second best but only played in 13 games and missed the Top 10. Bottom line, rushing the ball continues to grow in importance for top fantasy quarterbacks.

Top 10 quarterbacks: individual big games

Year 50 yd rush 2 TD rush 300 yards pass 3+ pass TD 35 Pts
2014 6 0 64 53 15
2015 8 2 66 54 19
2016 5 1 59 51 10
2017 16 1 45 45 12
2018 7 4 63 58 18
2019 30 5 57 45 22
2020 34 6 62 66 28
2021* 21 5 67 69 18
2022* 28 7 49 45 17
2023* 16 10 40 35 8

The days of the prolific passers aren’t over, but they are taking a vacation. They peaked in 2021 thanks to that additional game which upped most of the passing categories for big-game stats. Again – these are just from the Top 10 fantasy quarterbacks, not from the position as a whole.

Odd too is that the number of Top 10 quarterback games with 50+ rushing yards dropped back. And Jackson owned seven of the sixteen. Quarterback rushing scores are up and the number of instances of a quarterback running in two scores has never been higher. Jalen Hurts bulldozed four double-score games as a rusher, and Josh Allen turned in three. Jackson only had two.

Using 35 points as the mark for a big game (300 pass yards, 3 pass or 2 rush TDs, and some rushing yardage) was a surprise when it only happened eight times for a ten-year low, and that with the extra game as well. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson managed two each, but no other Top 10 quarterback had more than one.

So “monster games” were down significantly last year. What about 25-point performances for a “good game”?

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
73 73 66 58 75 72 102 94 82 68

Same phenomena. 2020 again shows up with the most “good games” with all that passing that year. And last year declined for the fourth straight season. So owning a Top 10 fantasy quarterback has been less advantageous to your weekly score and so far is dropping every season.

Rushing stats are undeniably higher at least for scoring. And the position overall is way up running the ball. Before discounting the position as throwing less, scoring fewer points and producing less 25 or 35-point games, let’s take a quick look at the individual level.

Top 3 QBs vs. 4th to 10th QBs

YEAR Top 3 Avg 4th-10th Avg Difference 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2023 438 365 73 474 435 406 392 385 364 363 356 355 343
2022 462 366 96 486 474 427 420 377 365 365 352 345 342
2021 462 391 71 477 458 451 440 413 391 390 382 361 360
2020 452 412 40 465 450 440 436 434 432 410 394 392 384
2019 431 353 77 463 418 411 382 380 348 345 340 339 339
2018 444 372 72 494 420 417 400 397 385 361 354 353 350
2017 379 339 40 412 365 360 355 348 348 338 329 327 326
2016 425 354 71 442 422 411 382 379 355 345 341 340 339
2015 422 373 49 455 406 404 399 382 379 368 363 359 358
2014 415 364 51 443 410 392 390 378 375 361 350 349 347

Last season, the Top 3 quarterbacks averaged lower than the last three years, but not that different than those previous years. But overall, the difference between a Top 3 quarterback and the rest of the fantasy starters is around 70 extra points.

The No. 1 quarterback has usually provided 100 more points than the tenth. In recent years, it skewed a bit higher but again, there was one more game that they could play.

Quarterbacks are different than any other fantasy position. You’ll only start one (usually) and yet they are likely the highest-scoring player on their team. And owning a Top 3 is not only a great advantage but doesn’t necessarily require one of the first three picks in your draft. Maybe not a first or second-round pick. Pretty good value there.

Lastly, we’ll move on from faceless numbers that can only provide a high-level overall trend of the position. Looking back at all of the quarterbacks that logged a Top 10 in the last five years. You could go deeper, but then you’re considering players who haven’t played for many years.

QBs with a Top 10 in the last five years

NAME 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Josh Allen 1 2 1 1 9
Jalen Hurts 2 3 10
Dak Prescott 3 6 3 10 9
Lamar Jackson 4 10 1
Jordan Love 5
Brock Purdy 6
Jared Goff 7 9 6
Patrick Mahomes 8 1 4 6 10 1
Tua Tagovailoa 9
Trevor Lawrence 10 7
Joe Burrow 4 7
Geno Smith 5
Kirk Cousins 6 9 9 4 5 9
Justin Herbert 8 3 8
Justin Fields 10
Tom Brady 2 7 3 2
Matthew Stafford 5 5 7 8
Aaron Rodgers 8 3 7 1 2
Kyler Murray 2 7
Deshaun Watson 4 5 5
Russell Wilson 5 4 10 1 4 6
Ryan Tannehill 9 10
Jameis Winston 2 10
Matt Ryan 6 3 3 7
Carson Wentz 8 9

Last summer, the top drafted quarterbacks were Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and then Lamar Jackson. Almost always in that order, and of course, just like they performed the previous season. Mahomes had a down year, comparatively, but the other three richly rewarded their drafters.

There is movement yearly in the Top 10 for every position. The rule of thumb is that usually half of the Top 10 return the next year. Injuries prevented Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Justin Fields from repeating. But it is interesting that in the last five years, that ending up as a Top 5 quarterback in consecutive years is rare. Allen, Hurts, Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were the only ones to repeat and Watson last did it three years ago. Once again, Mahomes, Allen and Hurts were by far the best bet.

Lamar Jackson rebounded for his best season since 2019 and there are reasons to expect him to replicate that performance with OC Todd Monken apparently having unlocked how to use him.

The drafts in the summer will see the quarterbacks drafted in near order of how they finished last year, at least for the Top 10. The risk of getting it right grows quickly after the Top 3 are gone.

Primer for the last fantasy football draft weekend of 2023

Drafting this weekend? We have you covered for everything needed to dominate.

Drafting a fantasy football team this weekend? The Huddle has you covered for everything needed to dominate in the final weekend before the 2023 NFL season begins.

Week 1 is merely days away, but there’s still time to draft a winner, and this being The Huddle’s 27th season online is a testament to our dedication to making you a champion!

It’s not too late to sign up for The Huddle and dominate!

Let’s not waste any more time and get right into what you must know ahead of the big draft weekend.

Fantasy football player news

Gamers can stay on top of the latest transactions, injury news, and more by following our Huddle newsfeed.

Fantasy football draft-day rules to live by

These rules are in no particular order, and they apply to all levels of experience among fantasy owners. Just as important as the “what you should do” to create a winner in fantasy drafting, avoiding simple pitfalls is a must.

1) Living in the past: Assuming successes and failures from last year automatically will carry over to this year’s results is a quick trip to Loserville. Each year is brand new and requires a reset of the old memory bank.

2) Stay sober: While it may seem silly, don’t let one draft of hard boozing affect an entire season of fantasy football. Party it up after the draft and celebrate your soon-to-be championship roster.

3) No one likes a homer: Well, except for that Homer. Heavily drafting players from your favorite team tends to lead to an entire season of hangover-filled mornings. This also includes taking a specific player over a better option just because that player is on your favorite team. Be objective.

Read the rest of the list

Fantasy football draft prep series

Fantasy football customizable rankings*

*Requires a subscription to The Huddle’s draft guide

Quarterbacks rankings preview

  1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
  2. Josh Allen, Bills
  3. Jalen Hurts, Eagles

Running backs rankings preview

  1. Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
  2. Austin Ekeler, Chargers
  3. Saquon Barkley, Giants

Wide receivers rankings preview

  1. Justin Jefferson, Vikings
  2. Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals
  3. Tyreek Hill, Dolphins

Tight ends rankings preview

  1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs
  2. Mark Andrews, Ravens
  3. T.J. Hockenson, Vikings

Fantasy football sleepers and busts*

*Requires a subscription to The Huddle’s draft guide

Latest fantasy football player spotlights

Fantasy football strength of schedule series

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Receivers

Fantasy football podcast

Don’t forget, you still can join The Huddle even if you’ve drafted. Our team of experts will bring you to the fantasy Promised Land in 2023!

3 fantasy football defenses to draft for early-season streaming

A trio of defensive units to draft if you’re into streaming.

Unless you’re locking down an elite group like the San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, or Buffalo Bills, the idea of streaming your defenses week-to-week through the season based on matchups can be the best way to go. With that in mind, here are three teams poised to deliver good early season value thanks to potentially advantageous schedules.

Before we get to our main three, here’s a bonus selection: the Cleveland Browns. That comes with an asterisk, however, as they open against the Cincinnati Bengals, which may not have quarterback Joe Burrow (calf) available. If he misses the game, that becomes a great matchup, and Cleveland then faces the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans, neither of whom are offensive powerhouses.

Fantasy football auctions – budgets and bids

Auctions mean you can own any player. Your only limits are the ones you place on yourself.

If you are in an auction league – congrats! You’re playing fantasy football at the highest level, having access to any player you want and with the ability to create a roster to your own liking. If not – what’s holding you back? I’ve  never heard of anyone that regretted the move.

Nothing like a pile of money and shiny things to buy.  Yes, you can own anyone. Maybe not much else, but targeting a single player “damn the cost” is possible. But a budget means intelligent use of your money, and that’s always a good thing. The challenge of an auction draft is that everyone has the same amount of money to spend, and everyone wants mostly the same players. Let the fun begin!

Let’s run down some of the nuances of buying players instead of just picking from an ordered list.

Player Value

Search the internet and there’s a multitude of sites that carry these and they are all pretty much the same. They’ll consider a 12-team league with a $200 salary cap which is by far the most common. Let’s take a look at a sample to get an idea of what 2023 looks like in consensus player value as of this writing.

Quarterbacks xxxx Running Backs xxxx Wide Receivers xxxx
Patrick Mahomes $32 Christian McCaffrey $50 Justin Jefferson $49
Josh Allen $32 Bijan Robinson $46 Ja’Marr Chase $46
Jalen Hurts $31 Austin Ekeler $46 Cooper Kupp $45
Lamar Jackson $23 Derrick Henry $44 Tyreek Hill $45
Joe Burrow $22 Nick Chubb $43 CeeDee Lamb $40
Justin Fields $16 Josh Jacobs $42 Stefon Diggs $37
Justin Herbert $15 Tony Pollard $41 Davante Adams $35
Deshaun Watson $12 Saquon Barkley $39 A.J. Brown $34
Dak Prescott $9 Jonathan Taylor $38 Jaylen Waddle $29
Trevor Lawrence $9 Joe Mixon $33 Amon-Ra St. Brown $28
Kirk Cousins $9 R. Stevenson $32 Deebo Samuel $24
Daniel Jones $8 Aaron Jones $30 Garrett Wilson $24
Tight Ends Breece Hall $30 Amari Cooper $24
Travis Kelce $47 Najee Harris $30 Tee Higgins $23
Mark Andrews $24 Travis Etienne Jr. $27 Chris Olave $22
T.J. Hockenson $19 Kenneth Walker III $26 Christian Watson $21
George Kittle $19 Alexander Mattison $26 DeVonta Smith $20
Darren Waller $15 James Conner $24 DK Metcalf $20
Kyle Pitts $13 Dameon Pierce $23 Calvin Ridley $20
Dallas Goedert $12 Jahmyr Gibbs $21 Jerry Jeudy $20
Pat Freiermuth $7 Miles Sanders $21 Terry McLaurin $18
Evan Engram $7 Cam Akers $21 Mike Williams $17
C. Okonkwo $6 Isiah Pacheco $20 Keenan Allen $17
Greg Dulcich $5 J.K. Dobbins $19 Christian Kirk $16
David Njoku $5 Rachaad White $18 Mike Evans $16
Dalton Schultz $5 David Montgomery $17 DeAndre Hopkins $16
Tyler Higbee $4 Javonte Williams $16 DJ Moore $15
Gerald Everett $3 James Cook $15 Chris Godwin $12
Juwan Johnson $3 Alvin Kamara $15 Brandon Aiyuk $12

I could buy Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson and Travis Kelce for around $178 but then would only have $22 for my remaining twelve players. Not unusual for someone to try some variation of that. Never saw it remotely work. Lose one top player and your team careens off into outer space. So you need to apply the money you have, against what that can buy. Oh yes, and you have to want that player more than any other team.

Enter the need to budget so you can know what is possible and what is too much to pay for a player.

Budgeting

Go into your auction knowing how you plan to apply your cash. It will never happen exactly like you think, but you need that guideline to keep you on the road to an optimal team.

 Use this quick three-step process to make a $200 budget for a 16 man roster:

Step 1 – First Cut for Relative Positional Value : Make a rough cut at what you think each position is worth to your team. Consider how much the position scores for comparison.

Step 2 – Consider the Starting Players : For each position, distribute that cash down when the position requires more than one starter. Just take your total positional dollars and spread them out over the starting positions.

Step 3 –Consider Total Roster Depth: Spread out the money so that every player has an allocated value. You can save money on depth players but  realize that at least a few will be called on because of injury, bye weeks or under-performance by starters. Play around with your values and decide where you want the bulk of your cash to go. I personally recommend spending big on the starters, but having backups that can step in and help does matter as well.

Here’s where you could end up:

1. Positions 2. Starters 3. Budget
QB 15 QB 15 QB1 10
QB2 2
RB 100 RB1 50 RB1 40
RB2 50 RB2 25
RB3 20
RB4 5
RB5 1
WR 70 WR1 30 WR1 30
WR2 20 WR2 25
WR3 20 WR3 20
WR4 5
WR5 2
WR6 1
TE 10 TE 10 TE 10
PK 2 PK 2 PK 2
DEF 3 DEF 3 DEF 2

You will adjust your budget with every player acquired.  Some cost  more than expected and others were relative bargains. A budget keeps you in tune with your money and how you spend it. Don’t end up with unspent money. Know what you can afford.

This is just a guideline, but keeps you aware of what you can spend on players. Just decide how much money you want to devote to the starting players, and how much your backups can cost. It feels great when you want a particular player and get him for less than expected – you add more cash to the remaining players you need. But when you overpay, you have to lower the bids on other players and that hurts.

Three styles of bidding

Before your auction, at least decide on which  auction style is best for you.

Go Big – Going big means buying at least two if not three of the superstars. The above average auction values suggests you can buy Christian McCaffrey ($50), Justin Jefferson ($49), and Travis Kelce ($47) for a big start. But then you have to assemble the rest of your team with just $56. In a league with 18 players per team, you’d only have an average of $3.70 per player. Draft Equivalent – This is like getting three No. 1 picks,  and then the rest of the team is from round ten or deeper.

Go Wide – This plan is the most common. It entails getting one top stud player, several good ones and then quality backups and filler. This lets you target individual players (within reason) and yet be flexible to pick up good values. This is great for those that are confident in their player valuations.  This person bids – a lot. A very active player since he helps establish the bid value of most players.  Draft Equivalent – The resulting team looks like it was drafted. Most people use this plan.

Go Deep – This strategy is not for the faint of heart. It entails sitting back while the expensive players are taken before winning a bid. Like maybe the first 40+ players are awarded. He packs the roster with upside guys hoping to land as many sleepers as possible. While owning no big-name players, he dominates the bidding starting mid-auction.  Draft Equivalent – This is like having all your picks come between the fourth and tenth round of a normal draft. All of them. Have to hit the sleepers. But you have plenty of depth.

Final Tips

  • The first player taken in each position is usually a good value. Teams hold back wanting to see what the positional cost will be and let that first one go too cheaply. There are so many others left to acquire anyway.
  • Running backs that have handcuffs should have that second player thrown out immediately. Don’t let anyone pick up an insurance player for cheap at the end to complete their set.
  • Winning in fantasy football means having difference makers. Don’t be afraid to go higher than budgeted for top players. Always lean towards investing more in starters instead of backups.
  • If you really want a specific player, throw him out and do not wait. Chances are others want him as well and are holding money out to buy him. At least you’ll know early if you can get him and can still make other plans.
  • There is nothing wrong with throwing out players you do not want. Particularly early on so that other teams burn up cash on someone you’d never buy. Just make sure he’s at the minimum bid or you run the risk of ending up with him.
  • Kickers and defenses are no less risky or more of any advantage just because you can have anyone of them. Save your money.
  • Check out the Average Auction Values at MyFantasyLeague.com or search for the many others on the internet. That gives you a sense of common player value this year.
  •  Never. Never. Never leave an auction with unspent bidding dollars. Spend them all. Always end up with at least a couple of $1 players at the end to make sure you don’t leave anything on the table. Nothing is worse than ending up with even a few dollars, knowing that you stopped bidding on players you really wanted and could have owned.

First 3 Picks: 10-team league

Your first three picks define your fantasy team.

The first three picks define your team and set up the rest of your draft. The optimal team is built by understanding the nuances of a scoring system and how it fits into your league rules.

A 10-team league means positional quality lasts longer. Everyone has a “good” team, so you need less depth and more difference-makers.

To follow are sample three-round drafts for 10-team fantasy football leagues. They use either standard performance scoring, performance plus a point per reception, or “2QB/Super Flex” leagues where you can start two of any position. Those three formats cover almost all leagues.

The names are less important than the positions because each draft slot has its own unique situation. Just as important are your future picks and what you need after three rounds.  Rankings can change daily so these may not exactly match rankings.

Performance scoring league

Performance scoring without reception points means that running backs are at a premium, and quarterbacks are a bit more valuable. Wide receivers and tight ends are devalued but are still usually four starters in a fantasy football league.  Most teams will look to get two running backs in their first three picks, and it’s hard to argue against that logic.

Unlike other scoring formats that offer greater parity in fantasy scoring between positions, this one still covets running backs. There could be up to 18 or 20 backs taken over the first three rounds even in this smaller league size.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Jalen Hurts, WR Tyreek Hill
Top running back counts huge in this format but thirteen are gone by the 2.12 so tabbed the Top-3 QB1 Hurts and still reached the fourth-best wideout for a nice advantage even without a reception point. Doubling up on running backs has to be considered next or the team backfield will ride too heavily on just what McCaffrey does – and drop badly if he is injured.
Team 2: RB Austin Ekeler, WR A.J. Brown, WR Davante Adams
Not  unlike Team 1, Opened with RB1 Ekeler and then opted to double on wideouts for two of the Top-5. Not as great without a reception point, but still an advantage. And also needs to consider running backs heavily for at least two of next three rounds.
Team 3: RB Bijan Robinson, RB Aaron Jones, RB Miles Sanders
Strength of the team is the backfield to be sure, but will miss out on difference-makers in any other position. Given the scoring format, next pick should consider the highest-scoring available QB1 and then just accept that the wideouts and tight end are not going to be any advantage and may be a liability.
Team 4: RB Nick Chubb, QB Josh Allen, RB Joe Mixon
Solid start with the fourth running back selected and then adding QB1 Allen for an advantage. Found RB2 Mixon in the third instead of a wideout like Cooper Kupp which offers a solid base for their backfield but has to consider wideouts in two of the next three rounds before that quality drops too far to not be a problem. This is a very safe start and a likely contender.
Team 5: RB Derrick Henry, RB R. Stevenson, WR Cooper Kupp
Double downed on RB1 Henry and RB2 Stevenson who round out the positional Top-12. Opted for a minor advantage with WR1 Kupp which means should look at quarterback next. Solid running backs allows them to cherry pick if anyone falls but the main aim is to make a balanced team.
Team 6: WR Justin Jefferson, RB Josh Jacobs, RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Rather than just follow the run on running backs, zagged to take WR1 Jefferson and then doubled on running backs with RB1 Jacobs and RB2 Gibbs. There is plenty of upside with those backs, but also risk until the season starts and team can know exactly what they have for a backfield. But probably should consider a third running back earlier than later just for insurance. Quarterback is a reasonable fourth-round consideration.
Team 7: RB Saquon Barkley, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Breece Hall
Barkley falls without reception points but still prevents any liability with their RB1. Tabbing QB1 Mahomes could make this team with firepower in the highest scoring position. Opted for RB2 Hall as the seventeenth back taken which was a safe move but risky all the same given his return from knee surgery. Wideouts need to show up soon but also need a decent third running back just to cover the “what if” from Hall.
Team 8: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RB Travis Etienne, RB David Montgomery
Here’s a standard and effective start from this slot. Grabbed WR1 Chase for a solid advantage in the position and then felt obligated to double down with RB1 Etienne and RB2 Montgomery who feels a bit weak given the committee backfield in Detroit. Could have gone with Stefon Diggs and likely not sacrificed much taking RB2 with the 4.03 in five picks. But at least Chase counts as more than just one wideout with his potential.
Team 9: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Najee Harris, WR Stefon Diggs
Drafting this late made RB-RB as a safe move and does own two Top-10 running backs with RB1 Taylor and RB2 Harris. WR1 Diggs best pick at the 3.09 to grab a consistent wideout and still could reach a Top-5 quarterback next. This is a standard plan that may not spark great optimism but doesn’t feel bad either. Can look at non-RB for the next three rounds though RB3 shouldn’t wait any longer than that.
Team 10: TE Travis Kelce, RB Tony Pollard, WR CeeDee Lamb
Drafting at the end always means looking for best value while everything gets wiped out in front of the pick. Starting out with TE1 Kelce is an advantage, less in this format, and will make all other positions wait an extra round to get any attention. Taking RB1 Pollard with the 2.01 was prudent to avoid a glaring hole at running back that would be very hard to compensate. WR1 Lamb as the 3.12 is solid but has to use the 4.01 on running back.

Reception-point league

This style of scoring boosts the value of wide receivers and elite tight ends and slightly devalues quarterbacks relative to other positions. Running backs are popular in any scoring scenario but the added reception point means the position becomes deeper with third-down backs able to offer “start-able” fantasy value. The consistency of an above-average running back is also a very valuable contributor to the weekly fantasy score.

With a reception point and only ten teams, your roster should look very strong after three picks. All positions are deep in this format so think about “star power.”

Team 1: WR Justin Jefferson, RB Aaron Jones, QB Josh Allen
Early picks work out well in this format, more so than others. Start out with WR1 Jefferson for a great advantage, then still reached the tenth-best running back to prevent any holes in the position and still added the second-best quarterback. The quality will be lower on everything by the 4.10, but this starts out with a top wideout and quarterback, plus a decent RB1.
Team 2: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Najee Harris, WR A. St. Brown
Opted for the best RB1 with McCaffrey and then used the back-end picks at 2.09 and 3.02 to double down with RB2 Najee Harris and only managed WR1 St. Brown as the ninth wideout. This format will raid the position harder than any other, but by the 4.09 pick there won’t be any top-tier players left. This is a safe start, but doesn’t do as much to obtain any advantages in any position other than the McCaffrey start.
Team 3: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RB Jonathan Taylor, TE Mark Andrews
Nice value play that can work in this format. Opened with WR1 Chase and then grabbed RB1 Taylor as the eighth back taken – could have been Najee Harris or Aaron Jones given the current questions surrounding Taylor. Went with TE1 Andrews in the third for an advantage in two positions. Can go anywhere with the next picks though it will be alternating running backs and wideouts other than seeding a QB1 where the best value lies.
Team 4: RB Austin Ekeler, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Garrett Wilson
This plan is effective allowing RB1 Ekeler, grabs the top QB1 Mahomes and then still reaches WR1 Wilson as the tenth-best wideout. Now just consider wideout and running back for the next three or four rounds for a solid start.
Team 5: RB Saquon Barkley, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Jaylen Waddle
 Opted for RB1 Barkley as a Top-3 running back and then double downed with WR1 Lamb and WR2 Waddle. Great start considering the scoring format and allows the team to ignore wideout for three rounds or so since they only need a WR3 and can load up on running backs before their quality experiences that steep decline after Round 6.
Team 6: WR Tyreek Hill, WR Davante Adams, QB Jalen Hurts
Middle slots are always tough since so many players are taken on either side of every pick.  Opened with WR1 Hill and then nabbed WR2 Adams for two of the Top-7 wideouts in a reception point league. Then still reached QB1 Hurts for a Top-3 at quarterback. Obviously has to mine running backs for at least two of the next three rounds, and maybe all three.
Team 7: TE Travis Kelce, RB Derrick Henry, RB Travis Etienne
Mr. 7th pick is TE1 Kelce who is most commonly taken right after the Top-3 wideouts and running backs are gone. Huge positional advantage but setting back all other positions by a round, it led to tabbing RB1 Henry and RB2 Etienne to feel safe. Wideouts are the deepest position and has to consider at least three of the next five picks for the position. But if you have to make up ground in any single position, wideout is where it is most possible.
Team 8: WR Cooper Kupp, RB Tony Pollard, RB Josh Jacobs
Went with WR1 Kupp before doubling on RB1 Pollard and RB2 Jacobs. That sews up two Top-12 running backs and an elite WR1. Need to address tight end and quarterback soon with an eye to getting a difference-maker because the safe start will turn into a very average team if anything happens to Kupp. Can hold off on running backs for at least three rounds.
Team 9: RB Bijan Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, WR Amari Cooper
Found the exciting RB1 Robinson and opted to get RB2 Chubb since six wideouts were gone. Reached WR1 Cooper as a Top-12 choice and needs to consider another wideout with next pick in just two more turns. Top-3 quarterbacks are gone and the best two tight ends. Needs a wideout and maybe two and can still reach a very serviceable quarterback in a few rounds.
Team 10: WR Stefon Diggs, WR A.J. Brown, RB Joe Mixon
That back-end turn is always interesting. In this format, even with just ten teams, the four best wideouts and running backs are gone, plus Travis Kelce.  Very common and workable taking WR1 Diggs and WR2 Brown for two of the Top-7 wideouts. That position can wait for another four rounds while running backs and a quarterback are taken. Goes next with the 4.01 which means either the fourteenth-best running back for RB2 which is likely the best choice since there could be another ten gone by their 5.12 pick.

QB-heavy/Super-Flex league

This league starts two quarterbacks. That pushes value in other positions deeper into the draft since quarterbacks take up far more of the early picks.  Each 2QB or super-flex league can use different scoring and other aspects that impact player value, so consider the nuances of your league.

This assumes super-flex, where the option to start a second quarterback in a flex position exists. Some  leagues may see six or seven quarterbacks in the first round and five or six more in the second round.

It is also assumed that there are reception points. That is by far the most common in that type of league. It is also notable that a team can win without automatically starting two quarterbacks, even when allowed. Virtually no one drafts with that in mind.

In a smaller 10-team league with additional valuable players from the quarterback boost, almost every fantasy team looks great so taking elite players is paramount to winning – get your starters before worrying about depth.

Team 1: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Bijan Robinson, WR Stefon Diggs 
No question who that first pick is. QB1 Mahomes (occasionally Josh Allen) is the most coveted player in this format but picking first meant that eleven quarterbacks were gone by the 2.10. But top values still there for RB1 Robinson and WR1 Diggs. It’s a solid start with firepower. Next pick at 4.10 should evaluate what is left at quarterback and decide if not starting a second quarterback may make most sense. Balanced opening allows cherry picking best values.
Team 2: QB Josh Allen, RB Saquon Barkley, RB Nick Chubb
Opened with QB1 Allen and like Team 1 noticed the quarterback shelves had been deeply raided and opted to assemble a very strong backfield with RB1 Barkley and RB2 Chubb for two of the Top-5 backs. Even in this smaller sized league, has to consider wideout for at least two of the next three picks and maybe all three. Solid backfield can let RB3 wait but wideout and tight end are trending to be weak.
Team 3: RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Cooper Kupp, QB Jared Goff
This year, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are almost always the Top-2 quarterbacks, with Jalen Hurts coming in a very strong third. Hurts would be a fine pick here as well, but opted for RB1 McCaffrey. That left the 2.08 pick already 11 deep in missing quarterbacks. So snapped up WR1 Kupp as the fourth-best wideout and then finally went with QB1 Goff without any real cost since no other quarterbacks were taken behind him. Can accept that two quarterbacks will not start and raid wideout or running back next. The next round quarterback will likely come with plenty of question marks.
Team 4: QB Jalen Hurts, QB Deshaun Watson, RB Tony Pollard
This plan is a safe approach with decent results. QB1 Hurts is a great pick and then QB2 Watson carries upside at least as the eleventh quarterback taken. Opted for RB1 Pollard over the sixth wideout (A.J. Brown or Davante Adams likely). Common approach should work but has to shuffle back and forth between running backs and wideouts for at least the next five or six rounds.
Team 5: WR Justin Jefferson, QB Dak Prescott, WR A.J. Brown
 The use of reception points makes this work – it would not if it were just performance scoring. Opened with WR1 Jefferson for a distinct advantage and then still reached QB1 Prescott at the 2.06 pick. Doubled on wideouts with WR2 Brown. Leave the wideouts alone for at least four or five rounds and work on running backs while keeping an eye on when to still reach a QB2 before there is no value there. Can compete in this scoring format with that start, but even getting a bye-week cover at QB2 cannot wait long.
Team 6: QB Joe Burrow, WR Tyreek Hill, QB Russell Wilson
Middle of the draft but still opened with QB1 Burrow and then third-best wideout of WR1 Hill for an advantage. QB2 Wilson is a steal if he returns to form but risky with the chance that his 2022 performance shows up again. But this start leaves the team with a solid start and can raid running backs for the next two rounds before thinking of more wideouts.
Team 7: QB Lamar Jackson, TE Travis Kelce, WR Davante Adams
Have to like how this unfolds. Reached QB1 Jackson which felt good, and then TE1 Kelce for a big advantage at a small position. Then WR1 Adams as a Top-8 wideout. The next pick (just six turns away) can look at a QB2, but two running backs are in order in the next three rounds. The reception point helps this to make sense.
Team 8: QB Trevor Lawrence, QB Justin Fields, RB Derrick Henry
With a super flex and a reception point, high-value players exist much deeper in drafts and allow for end-of-the-round teams to actually gain an advantage. QB1 Lawrence and QB2 Fields wrap up two Top-8 quarterbacks to take advantage of the starting rules, and then still found RB1 Derrick Henry at the 3.08 pick. Solid start that goes again in four turns and can either balance with a wideout or solidify a good backfield with another running back.
Team 9: WR Ja’Marr Chase, QB Kirk Cousins, RB Jonathan Taylor
The question the next-to-last pick has to ask is which player can I live without. Going with WR2 Chase is a strong play and then still found QB1 Kirk Cousins there at his 2.02. The positions were drained by the 3.09 but went with RB1 Taylor to start the backfield and goes again in two picks where they decide if they want a running back or a wideout. That question will persist for the next several rounds.
Team 10: RB Austin Ekeler, QB Justin Herbert, WR CeeDee Lamb
Hard to imagine, but in this format the second-best running back can still be there at the 1.10 and RB1 Ekeler made sense. QB1 Herbert was an obvious pick knowing that  their 3.10 pick will be looking at the scraps at quarterback. Went with WR1 Lamb for a balanced start that opens up all positions for best value over the next four rounds or more.

First 3 Picks: 12-team league

Your first three picks define your fantasy team.

Your first three picks define your fantasy football team. Each one is critical because the player pool is ever-shrinking, and you have to select a mixture of available players to produce an optimal team. And those initial rounds determine what you’ll do in the later rounds of the draft. Get them wrong, and you may not be able to recover.

To follow are sample three-round drafts for 12-team fantasy football leagues. They use either standard performance scoring, performance plus a point per reception, or “2QB/Super Flex” leagues where you can start two of any position. Those three formats cover virtually all leagues.

The names are less important than the positions because each draft slot has its own unique situation. Just as important are your future picks and what you still need after three rounds.  Rankings change daily, so these may not exactly match site rankings. Pay the most attention to the positions and how they work together for an optimal start.

Performance scoring league

Performance scoring without reception points means that top running backs are a premium, and quarterbacks are comparatively more valuable. Wide receivers and tight ends are devalued but still total four starters in most  fantasy football leagues.  Most teams take two running backs over their first three picks and it’s hard to argue against the logic because the supply is very low by Round 4.

The above three rounds are an optimal way to start the draft for all twelve draft slots. Let’s consider where each should be looking next after the three-pick start:

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Stefon Diggs, QB Josh Allen
First pick gets that great top running back, but then 15 are gone by the second pick. Scooped up a Top-3 quarterback and wideout for a great start but has to spend on running backs probably in both Rounds 4 and 5. Rather than follow the run on depleted running backs, tried to gather highly rated starters though the bang for the buck is lower with no reception points.
Team 2: RB Austin Ekeler, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR CeeDee Lamb
Plenty of upside on Gibbs, and then opted for the best wideout. Fairly standard opening and owning Ekeler will be an absolute advantage with  reception points. Threw away the chance to start two quarterbacks with WR1 of Lamb and needs to address QB1 next just to have a suitable starter from a position that drains quickly. This is the start that ends up taking rookie quarterbacks and others that have a less clear path to starting every week. It is possible to get lucky, but pretty much every other team is hunting for quarterback scraps as well.
Team 3: RB Bijan Robinson, WR Cooper Kupp, RB Breece Hall
Hard to pass by Kupp in the second round with running backs draining fast and leaving a riskier Breece Hall in the third round. That’ll work out better later in the year when Hall should be back to form but means getting another running back soon is in order just in case Hall is slower to return. But a safe start that opens up best available players from all positions.
Team 4: RB Nick Chubb, RB Joe Mixon, RB David Montgomery
This plan feels great so far loading up on running backs but that means there will be minimal advantage left in any other position and if either Chubb or Mixon was to miss time, it ensures the entire team takes a step down without stars in other positions to compensate.
Team 5: RB Derrick Henry, WR Davante Adams, WR Jaylen Waddle
Mid-draft is always a challenge to avoid building an average team. Opting for two wideouts does offer value in those positions, but realistically team must raid running backs for whatever is left for a few rounds and keep an eye out for when to seed in a quarterback.
Team 6: RB Saquon Barkley, WR Tyreek Hill, RB Isiah Pacheco
Similar to Team 5, only opted for running back in the third round with Pacheco. Solid start, nothing flashy in this format, but reaching Pacheco quality in the third was likely lucky. Now situated to take best available for the next couple of round from any position. May be heading toward being an average team.
Team 7: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Miles Sanders, WR Amari Cooper
Definitely a safe start and could work out, assuming a healthy and happy Taylor eventually agrees to play and Sanders makes the transition to Carolina. Cooper avoids a weak WR1 just in time. Free to go anywhere that value lies with this core.
Team 8: WR Justin Jefferson, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Ken Walker
Hard not to like the best wideout and quarterback on the same team, but the scoring doesn’t make it as advantageous and picking Walker in the third was a need, along with probably the next two rounds hunting for running backs.
Team 9: RB Tony Pollard, WR A.J. Brown, RB Rachaad White
Started with Pollard since the next three teams could have totaled six more running backs and still ended up with Brown for a solid WR1. The White pick is strong enough that the fourth round can consider any position but a running back needs to be taken in the next two rounds.
Team 10: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RB Aaron Jones, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
The loss of reception points in this format makes these wideouts possible, but with lesser impact. But starts out with potentially two Top-10 wideouts and a solid pick for running back. Doesn’t have to consider wideouts for four or more rounds and can raid more running backs along with a quarterback thrown in.
Team 11: TE Travis Kelce, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, QB Jalen Hurts
Kelce may offer less without the reception points, but he is still a big advantage at the otherwise lowest-scoring position in this format. Still was able to reach the No. 3 quarterback for a nice job of seeking advantages where possible in this late-round spot. Probably use the next six or eight rounds to just gather wideouts and more running backs.
Team 12: RB Travis Etienne, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Garrett Wilson
Picking last without reception points means nothing feels great, especially with Kelce and the Top-2 wideout gone. Doubling down on RB1 and RB2 is a safe play for an average team, but at least owns the best RB2 in the league and has an upside wideout in the third. Will need to swing for the fence in search of a sleeper to upgrade the firepower.

Reception-point league 

This scoring style boosts the value of wide receivers and elite tight ends but devalues quarterbacks. Running backs are popular in any scoring scenario, but the added reception point means the position becomes deeper with third-down backs able to offer “start-able” fantasy value.

Wideouts are drafted faster than recent years, and there are so many question marks at running backs that there are reasonable risks out until the sixth round or later. Top-3 quarterbacks and tight ends are often gone by the third round, no later than the fourth in most PPR leagues.

Team 1: WR Justin Jefferson, WR Jaylen Waddle, TE Mark Andrews
Certainly a strong start in a reception-point league. The best WR1 in the league adds the eleventh wideout drafted for maybe the top set of two wideouts in the league. Adding Andrews sews up that advantage at tight end but also means the RB1- which needs to come next – may only be the 20th-best running back. At least make running back the next two picks or plan on getting lucky with a sleeper since running backs still offer the most consistent points.
Team 2: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Josh Allen, RB Travis Etienne
This start feels very safe, even if it doesn’t pay homage to the reception point. The backfield is set by Round 3, and adding the No. 2 quarterback is a big advantage at the highest-scoring position. Next four rounds have to consider wideouts and maybe a tight end.
Team 3: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RB Aaron Jones, WR Amari Cooper
Standard sort of start with elite Chase for WR1 and then filling RB1 with the tenth back drafted. Cooper at WR2  means the position can wait without much harm while getting another running back and a quarterback, possibly a tight end if the value is there.
Team 4: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Garrett Wilson, WR DeVonta Smith
Strong start with an elite running back and then doubled on wideouts for plenty of reception points every week. Has to consider running back next before the position becomes risky. Can hold off on WR3 for a while addressing the other positions. Ekeler strong enough that it’s okay to accept some risk on RB2.
Team 5: RB Saquon Barkley, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Josh Jacobs
 Barkley nails down the RB1 and Jacobs made for a risky RB2 but with potential great upside. Wedging in Mahomes is an advantage at the highest-scoring position but now has to respect those reception points that were ignored and mine wideouts and an eventual tight end for maybe all of the first half of the draft.
Team 6: WR Tyreek Hill, RB Najee Harris, WR Chris Olave
Started with a Top-3 wideout and then still reached the ninth running back taken for a balanced start. Added upside Olave for WR2 so should throw more wideouts on the back burner at least until securing a couple of running backs and a quarterback. Solid start at the middle of the round and should watch out for any players that fall.
Team 7: TE Travis Kelce, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, QB Jalen Hurts
Kelce is the natural No. 7 once the top running backs and wideouts are missing. Middle teams can easily end up average but this start yielded the top tight end, a decent WR1 to prevent a liability, and then just managed to land a Top-3 quarterback. The next six to eight rounds have to be alternating running backs and wideouts, with running backs at least next round if not two.
Team 8: WR Cooper Kupp, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Drake London
Tough spot since Top-3 running backs and wideouts are gone, along with the only tight end guarantees an advantage. Opted to start WR-RB-WR with a solid effect. Kupp is a lock to be a pass sponge and London offers upside. The Taylor pick is risky and yet high upside – something that middle-round teams have to consider to create some advantage at a position while following runs on most all positions.
Team 9: RB Bijan Robinson, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR DK Metcalf
Always a tougher spot to draft from and yet this worked out very well. Landed the hot rookie Robinson which feels great from his upside and then doubled down on wideouts for a stronger set of WR1/WR2. Can consider any position next, but has to revisit running backs at least once in the next two rounds.
Team 10: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Derrick Henry, RB Joe Mixon
Opened with wideout before the tier emptied and then opted for two running backs for a strong backfield. Needs to mine the wideouts for the next several rounds while stopping for a quarterback at some point. Upside tight end later can make up some ground.
Team 11: WR A.J. Brown, WR Davante Adams, RB R. Stevenson
Scooped two wideouts to start and in this format it makes sense. Took Stevenson as a need pick in the third round. Some advantage at WR1/WR2 and can look at any position for a round or two that offers best value. Strong start at wideout means can wait on WR3 and go for quarterback and more running backs.
Team 12: RB Nick Chubb, RB Tony Pollard, TE T.J. Hockenson
Final pick doubled down with running backs after seven wideouts and Kelce was taken – one was in order and two backs means they can ignore the position for the next three rounds or more while loading up on the wideouts and seeding in a quarterback. Hockenson offers a Top-3 tight end for an advantage in one position.

 

Super Flex / QB-heavy league 

This league starts two quarterbacks. That pushes value in other positions deeper into the draft since quarterbacks take up far more of the early picks.  Each 2QB or super-flex league can use different scoring and other aspects that impact player value, so consider the nuances of your league.

This assumes super-flex, where the option to start a second quarterback in a flex position exists and is used by most if not nearly all team owners. Some  leagues can have eight quarterbacks in the first round and six in the second round. In others, maybe half as many. So pay attention and assume the worst when the quarterbacks start flying off the shelf. And, guaranteed, they will be heavily represented in those first two rounds.

It is also assumed that there are reception points. That is by far the most common in that type of league. It is also notable that a team can win without automatically starting two quarterbacks, even when allowed. Virtually no one drafts with that in mind.

Team 1: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Nick Chubb, QB Jared Goff
No question where the first pick goes – only which quarterback you consider the top player. QB1 Mahomes feels very good in this format and allowed a Top-5 RB1 to fall. That third pick of QB2 Goff was the twelfth quarterback taken and while that’s probably doable in most leagues, there are others where the position is raided even harder. This start feels good but that 4.12 pick better look at wideout. It is a deep position but about to become a liability.
Team 2: QB Josh Allen, WR Davante Adams, WR CeeDee Lamb
Drafting at the early part of the first round is still an advantage, though not so much for starting two quarterbacks. QB1 Allen is a huge advantage and opting for WR1 Adams and WR2 Lamb yields two Top-8 wideouts to offer high-point consistency in a position that tends towards hot and cold weeks for most. WR3 can wait while the next four picks should consider running backs. If QB2 waits at all, they should go RB-RB next and then assess the board for quarterback and tight end.
Team 3: RB Christian McCaffrey, WR A.J. Brown, QB Russell Wilson
There are super-flex drafts that are nothing but quarterbacks for the first eight picks, but usually a few teams opt for top players in other positions and it can happen this early. The best RB1 is always a source of consistently high weekly points, and then team went for a Top-6 WR1 since eleven quarterbacks were already taken. Ended up with QB1 Wilson because waiting until the fourth round would produce a below-average QB1. If QB2 is to be a starter, then he has to happen next. But a balanced approach opens up best available opportunities.
Team 4: QB Jalen Hurts, RB Bijan Robinson, RB Tony Pollard
This start yielded a Top-3 QB1 in Hurts for a nice advantage, then doubled down with RB1 Robinson and RB2 Pollard. Backfield is set so next picks are either the QB2 or wide receivers. Could consider a Top-3 tight end, but then wideouts would become a liability unless a sleeper was landed. This start will produce solid and consistent points from those first three picks.
Team 5: WR Justin Jefferson, QB Deshaun Watson, RB Derrick Henry
 Top-3 quarterbacks were gone so opted with WR1 of Jefferson and then settled on QB1 Watson.  RB1 was Henry as the seventh back taken. Jefferson is the star of the team so far, but balanced start means can search for best value players regardless of position. QB2 is a need pick next round only if two quarterbacks will start and Jefferson is so strong that WR2 and WR3 can wait a little longer.
Team 6: QB Joe Burrow, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
After QB1 Burrow, opted for Top-5 WR1 Diggs and sewed up WR2 with St. Brown to give them two Top-10 wideouts. Taking a quarterback in the fourth may still reach someone worth starting but leaves running back as a liability short of landing a sleeper. Over next four rounds, at least two must be running back and likely three to address since at least two will be starters.
Team 7: QB Lamar Jackson, TE Travis Kelce, RB Jonathan Taylor
Grabbed the fifth-best quarterback for a minor advantage at QB1 and then snapped up TE1 Kelce for a nice boost even though he’ll impact all other positions even more in this format – but at least he lasts until the second round. RB1 Taylor is a risk that could pay off. But QB2 will be weaker and has to pursue wideouts in at least two of the next three rounds before they have a liability in a position that may start three players.
Team 8: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RB Saquon Barkley, QB Tua Tagovailoa
This draft slot is a challenge, even in this format. Five quarterbacks are gone as well as the top running back and wideout. Opted for WR1 Chase, then found the third-best running back instead of just taking the twelfth quarterback. QB1 weaker with Tagovailoa but this team opts to compete on non-quarterback value. And can go anywhere in future rounds with a solid start. If better value is in an other position, can wait two or three rounds before their QB2 and accept only one will be a starter.
Team 9: QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Garrett Wilson
Another tough spot even  in this format, started with great pick of Lawrence for QB1 and then respects the reception point to double on WR1/WR2 with Kupp and Wilson. This is a strong start for this spot. Wideouts can be ignored for another four rounds while they raid running backs and consider a second quarterback. This start can compete in this format.
Team 10: RB Austin Ekeler, QB Dak Prescott, WR Jaylen Waddle
Couldn’t resist RB1 of Ekeler at the 1.10 but then went with Prescott for QB1 not wanting any liability at quarterback. Balanced approach with WR1 in Waddle. There is no particular glaring need in the fourth round but should at least consider quarterback or an elite tight end to sew up the top spot for the main positions and then cherry-pick value the rest of the way.
Team 11: QB Justin Herbert, WR Tyreek Hill, RB Najee Harris
Took Herbert while the getting was still good, and the No. 3 wideout next is an advantage as well. Went for balance with RB1 in the third round and that means all positions are open for the next many rounds. Either a quarterback has to come in the fourth round or plan on not starting two of them. Which can be still effective.
Team 12: QB Kirk Cousins, QB Justin Fields, RB Aaron Jones
The beauty in super-flex leagues is that the penalty for going last in the first round is no longer as severe because mixing in all those quarterbacks extend the available quality of all non-QB positions, and while the first round may consume up to eight quarterbacks, owning both the eighth and ninth best is still an advantage from the highest-scoring position and those other positions will still have quality. Can do anything with this start.

 

Navigating your 2023 fantasy football draft

you can make intelligent decisions about how to pursue the positions that make up your optimal roster.

Navigating your 2023 fantasy football draft

It’s time to prepare the path to your fantasy league championship. Fortunately, the torrent of hype and hope surrounding each player means that each draft shares an amazing similarity in who goes where. You may not reach the exact player you want at a certain spot, but you can make intelligent decisions about how to pursue the positions that make up your optimal roster.

Kickers and team defenses rightfully belong to the final rounds, but where can you gain advantages in for 2023 draft? Like most years, fantasy teams constantly grab running backs and wideouts, but what will you do at quarterback and tight end? Those positions only provide one fantasy starter.  No amount of mixing and matching those position will result in what just one elite player provides all year. And they are highly reliable players at the top.

Syndication: Arizona Republic

Quarterbacks – Top quarterbacks score the most of any position in most leagues. And the position is showing up earlier in drafts in recent years. The Top-3 from last year – Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts – are the first signal callers taken this year.  Mahomes and Allen have been Top-10 for the last four years and each have a couple of No. 1 finishes in that time. Hurts is a newcomer to the elite tier and is reasonably expected to remain. Expect all three to be gone by the third round and either Mahomes or Allen may cost a second round.

The next three may not win your league, but they won’t be why you lost it. That includes Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson who have all reached Top-5 in previous years and they’ll go by the fifth or sixth rounds to those looking for at least a small advantage. If you are the sort that waits on the position, at least go for the higher upside of Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, or Deshaun Watson by the end of the ninth round. And if you’ve historically waited on the position, how’s that worked out for you? Maybe it is expensive, but owning one of the top fantasy scorers in your league is always an advantage.

Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Running Backs – This is the year of opportunity for running backs. And for tremendous risk. Do you feel lucky? Aside from Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler taken in the first five picks, there’s much less consensus than ever with the position. These NFL players are devalued despite the out-sized contributions to their offense. That’s caused an unprecedented number of holdouts, “hold-ins”, talented free agents, unhappy franchise tags and major question marks in at least half of the backfields.  The best rusher from each NFL team can last into the seventh round.

The NFL may be a passing league, but the player with the most touches is always the primary running back. Fantasy leaguers respond to this dilemma by loading up on top wide receivers initially and then sorting through the remaining bin of running backs. You can expect four to six teams owning no more than one running back at the start of the fifth round. In the fourth round, you’ll still reach players like Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker, and Miles Sanders.  In most leagues, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Isaiah Pacheco and Alexander Mattison will finally get drafted by the end of the seventh round.

Given the uncertainty, 2023 is a good season for loading up on the lowest risk options for all positions, and taking your chances with running backs from rounds four to seven. There will be some incredible values in drafts for your backfield once it is all settled and players lock into who they are and where they play. And yet a ton of risk until they do.

Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Wide Receivers – This is the year of the wideout. While the number taken in the first two rounds isn’t up dramatically, opening the draft with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase is a new twist for fantasy leagues that historically start with the prior year’s best running backs. But wide receivers command at least half of the picks made in the first two rounds. At least three or four teams start with two wideouts before considering another position and those elite pass catches offer consistent and reliable fantasy points.

Only one of the Top-10 running backs of 2021 repeated that standing last year (Austin Ekeler). All others failed to repeat a difference-making year. For wideouts, about half of them repeated. Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs all recorded their third straight Top-10 performance.

You can expect at least five wideouts per round to be drafted. There are no big values in the position because they’ve become the new “running backs” in fantasy drafts – highly coveted and stripped of the Top-30 by the end of the sixth round. The top rookies of 2021 are gone by the fourth round – Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Drake London. Receivers are also made more reliable because in those first thirty, only DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley are playing on different teams this year. If you get rattled and need to make a quick pick, grab the best available wideout.

Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Tight Ends – Yes, it is the lowest scoring skill position and you need to decide if you want to pay the price for a difference-maker. Travis Kelce’s monster 2021 means that once the Top-3 wide receivers and running backs are taken, he’s usually the next to be drafted. There’s no other fantasy player that dominates his position like Kelce. If receptions points are involved, Kelce is a steal beyond that No. 7 overall pick.

There is still an advantage in owning a top tight end. Consider the rounds where value is drained – Mark Andrews (3), T.J. Hockenson (4), George Kittle (5), Dallas Goedert (6), and Kyle Pitts (6).  Beyond that, at least look for upside with Evan Engram, Darren Waller, or David Njoku are all well situated to improve on their 2021 production.

FSGA National Conference experts draft recap

A pick-by-pick review of The Huddle’s team in a prominent industry league.

The Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA) organizes several industry expert leagues, with the 14-team “Champions League,” hosted by RTSports.com, being the crown jewel.

I had the honor of competing in the premier grouping for a decade, making the postseason six of the past eight years, including a close loss in the finals. Among the reasons for my consistency is understanding the necessity to take calculated risks on draft day. Being afraid to take a chance or reach for a player — especially in this 14-team variant filled with excellent drafters — is a fast-track to being demoted from the league. Yeah, demoted. The bottom four teams get relegated to the next league down the chain.

Thus, there is a need to take bold actions at a level unprecedented in arguably any other professional draft. In short, I much rather take a chance reaching for some players I covet than playing it too safe. Of course, there’s a nuanced blend of risk to work into a roster design, but it all comes down to making intelligent gambles.

Unfortunately, my aggressive tendencies came back to haunt me last year, and I drafted a clunker that couldn’t be salvaged via the waiver wire. These leagues do not allow trades, so the draft’s importance is exaggerated.

We have more than a quarter-century track record of creating fantasy football champs. Sign up for The Huddle today to gain an award-winning edge on the competition!

All of the FSGA leagues are performance-based, PPR scoring format, and drafting a live league this early in the summer makes for a fun tightrope walk in some regards. Drafting even into mid-July — mind you, this used to take place a month prior — forces gamers to make educated guesses on appropriate value of unsettled situations.

Since I was booted from the top league, my team now will compete in the “National Conference” league and have a chance to win my way back into the Champions group next year.

Full roster by round

Ovr Rnd Pos Player Tm
8 1:08 RB Bijan Robinson ATL
21 2:07 WR Garrett Wilson NYJ
36 3:08 WR Tee Higgins CIN
49 4:07 RB Alexander Mattison MIN
64 5:08 TE Kyle Pitts ATL
77 6:07 WR Kadarius Toney KC
92 7:08 RB Brian Robinson Jr. WAS
105 8:07 QB Aaron Rodgers NYJ
120 9:08 WR Van Jefferson LAR
133 10:07 WR Romeo Doubs GB
148 11:08 RB Tyjae Spears TEN
161 12:07 QB Jared Goff DET
176 13:08 RB Zamir White LV
189 14:07 WR Darius Slayton NYG
204 15:08 D/ST Miami Dolphins MIA
217 16:07 K Jake Moody SF

Pick-by-pick review

1:08) RB Bijan Robinson, ATL: I’m pleased Robinson was available at this point of the draft, and I expect a dual-threat role from the coveted rookie. Atlanta’s line is legit, and quarterback Desmond Ridder will do enough to keep defenses honest. I prefer to gamble on a breakout season from a talented rookie in a run-heavy offense rather than hope a proven veteran can hold up once again to the rigors of being a workhorse back (think Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs).

2:07) WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ: I entertained the idea of drafting Derrick Henry, but the 14-team format compelled me to acquire a true No. 1 receiver, and I didn’t see that being likely if I waited until Round 3. The decision paid off as no one else was left when I picked next that I would have offered top-10 possibility.

3:08) WR Tee Higgins, CIN: Higgins is an excellent No. 2 target, and he’s a surefire WR1 if Ja’Marr Chase were to miss time again. I probably would have gone with Terry McLaurin had he not been selected one pick before me, and the other consideration was Detroit Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs.

4:07) RB Alexander Mattison, MIN: This one could be a pivotal selection as my RB2. Mattison takes over as the primary back following Dalvin Cook‘s release and has basically no proven competition for touches. I’m lukewarm on Minnesota’s offensive line, but any back with a chance for this kind of volume in an offense that has a dangerous passing game should produce at least No. 2 results.

5:08) TE Kyle Pitts, ATL: Maybe I’ve invested too heavily in Atlanta’s offense, but I expect this to be the surprise team of the NFC and perhaps the entire league. Pitts returns to health and should offer top-five results at the position. I wouldn’t be shocked if he challenges for the No. 2 spot behind Travis Kelce, either. With Drake London being the only other proven option, Pitts should shine. The other option was to wait and target Dalton Schultz later, which would have offered more value, but I preferred getting a share of Pitts after having already landed the Houston tight end in several drafts.

6:07) WR Kadarius Toney, KC: A true gamble, especially this early, Toney was the best boom-or-bust option remaining with enough upside to challenge for a WR1 finish. He has the talent and game-changing athleticism and is in a prolific offense with an elite quarterback, so the rest is on Toney to stay healthy.

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7:08) RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS: Robinson was the last remaining back I was comfortable with as a No. 2 in case one of my starters went down for a long stretch. While he’s far from being a lock, there’s an opportunity, and Antonio Gibson hasn’t impressed me. The offensive line is shaky, and there’s a questionable quarterback situation, but Robinson gets a full offseason to make his mark.

8:07) QB Aaron Rodgers, NYJ: I agonized over Deshaun Watson vs. Rodgers with this pick. I’m confident in the former Green Bay star’s situation. The line is decent enough, his weapons are deep and diverse, and Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder. The 39-year-old not staying healthy is my biggest fear for his outlook.

9:08) WR Van Jefferson, LAR: A fourth receiver who has some upside for more, Jefferson was one of the few remaining options who jump out as a viable gamble for WR3/flex worth. LA has basically just TE Tyler Higbee behind Cooper Kupp in the aerial pecking order, which bodes well for the now-healthy Jefferson to pick up where he left off in 2021 prior to an injury-dampened 2022 flop.

10:07) WR Romeo Doubs, GB: Jordan Love has to throw the ball to someone, and Christian Watson can’t do it all alone. Doubs is an interesting possession receiver who could threaten 1,000 yards and should be good for roughly six or so TD grabs. As a fifth wideout, one could do much worse.

11:08) RB Tyjae Spears, TEN: I missed out on my Robinson handcuff of Tyler Allgeier by eight picks, which stinks, but Spears is an exciting consolation prize. He’s already in the No. 2 hole behind Derrick Henry, an aging workhorse with an absurdly high odometer. One serious injury striking down the king and Spears could be a weekly starter.

12:07) QB Jared Goff, DET: Goff is good for a handful of starts if Rodgers is absent, and I wouldn’t be in a terrible spot if the former LA Ram had to enter my lineup for extended action. There’s nothing sexy about this one, but if Rodgers goes down, Goff is at least stable.

13:08) RB Zamir White, LV: While White is among the top handcuff options in the league, he’s also a strong standalone RB5 since Josh Jacobs unhappy with his contract coming off a massive workload.

14:07) WR Darius Slayton, NYG: The entire receiving corps situation is a mess in New York, and Daniel Jones is far from a complete product as a passer. With that, Slayton is established as a capable vertical weapon but could see Jalin Hyatt cut into his work during the year. Either way, this pick is all upside with no risk.

15:08) Def/ST Miami Dolphins, MIA: This defense has dramatically improved in the offseason, and while the division will be a slog, matchups with New England, Denver, Carolina, Las Vegas, Washington and Tennessee present strong opportunities for success.

16:07) PK Jake Moody, SF: Rookie kickers rarely fare well, yet here we are … the offense is the main reason for choosing Moody. He has kicked several clutch field goals in college (8-for-8 on game-winning kicks in the last two years). His leg isn’t typically regarded as being huge, but a 59-yarder in the 2022 national semifinal shows he has plenty of distance. If it turns out that I’m wrong on him, he’s a kicker, after all.

Roster composition

Pos Player Team Bye
QB Aaron Rodgers NYJ 7
QB Jared Goff DET 9
RB Bijan Robinson ATL 11
RB Alexander Mattison MIN 13
RB Brian Robinson Jr. WAS 14
RB Tyjae Spears TEN 7
RB Zamir White LV 13
WR Garrett Wilson NYJ 7
WR Tee Higgins CIN 7
WR Kadarius Toney KC 10
WR Van Jefferson LAR 10
WR Romeo Doubs GB 6
WR Darius Slayton NYG 13
TE Kyle Pitts ATL 11
PK Jake Moody SF 9
DT Dolphins MIA 10

The Falcons’ improving offense is much more than Bijan Robinson

Look to the Falcons for a team stocked with fantasy players on the rise.

Fantasy drafts this summer are paying major respect to a running back that hasn’t played a down in the NFL and mans a position that’s been greatly devalued in recent years. That’s not to say that Bijan Robinson isn’t worth his current average draft spot as the No. 4 fantasy running back or he won’t end up as the No. 1 as several Twitter-fueled fans suggest.

Matt Forte, Priest Holmes, and Saquon Barkley all logged a No. 1 in their first seasons. Arian Foster, David Johnson, Chris Johnson, Devonta Freeman, Jonathan Taylor, Le’Veon Bell,  and Tiki Barber all led the position in their second year. It doesn’t take long and in defense of Robinson, he’s been most likened to Barkley as the “once in a generation” player that seemingly comes around every couple of years.

The Falcons’ rushing schedule is one of the toughest and is worse at the start of the year. But the offensive line is much improved, Robinson is intended to contribute equally as a receiver, and he’s going to cost dearly if you intend on seeing him in your starting lineup.

Robinson generated the hype and adoration of a top rookie running back. He’s spent much of the offseason as a trending topic on Twitter just because everyone wants to discuss him. Your league mates will want the exciting Texas rookie but only one team gets to overpay for him.

But he’s not the only Falcon, and any success that he creates will also feed into better stats for the rest of the fantasy players in Atlanta. Robinson may have yet to take a regular-season snap, but he’s already overshadowed the rest of the offense that hasn’t generated such unbridled optimism despite key players entering the second or third NFL season.

Fantasy football mock draft series: May takeaways

Is it too early to pick up on trends in fantasy football mock drafts?

It is mid-May, and fantasy football drafts are gaining steam. A recently hosted industry mock is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The blurbs about my team below were provided to the draft host and will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks (we didn’t select kickers or defensive teams), here are a few generalized observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.

  • In the 2021 iteration, every Round 1 pick was a running back, minus a lone receiver (Tyreek Hill) chosen at No. 11 overall. Last year, we saw seven running backs and five receivers, including Cooper Kupp going at No. 2. This time around, five receivers, including the first three picks, six running backs, and Travis Kelce went in the opening stanza.
  • Five RBs came off the board in Round 2 in 2021’s draft, which mostly consisted of receivers. Last year, a half-dozen backs, two tight ends, and a quartet of receivers made up the second. The most recent one featured eight receivers, three RBs, and TE Mark Andrews.
  • The 2021 draft’s first QB came off the board in late Round 4 (Patrick Mahomes), and Josh Allen was taken with the last pick of Round 5 in ’22. We saw Allen go 27th this year, while three more went in Round 3. Only four total passers went in the first 50 choices, whereas seven went in the same range last season.
  • In the first 100 picks of the 2021 draft, 9 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 10 TEs were taken. In last year’s version, we watched 6 QBs, 39 RBs, 45 WRs and 10 tight ends — no drastic changes. This time around, however, 11 QBs, 37 RBs, 44 WRs and 8 TEs were chosen. Drafters have been pretty consistent year over year in terms of positional distribution.
  • Running back atop the draft is a dicey bet this season. There are more uncertain situations that sure things, and it’s clear gamers are leaning heavily on elite wideouts in 2023. Factor that into your draft plans but be prepared to pivot as needed. Going with two receivers right off the top should set you up well to build a reliable stable of running backs in Rounds 3-6.
  • Quarterback remains quite deep, too, with a viable starter being available into the 13th round. Tight end remains a little top-heavy, just like the last few years. Following the consensus top-four TEs — all of whom went in the first six rounds — the position gets really dicey. If you’re not comfortable playing the matchups, make sure to secure one of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson or George Kittle. The next tier of TEs — Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz and Evan Engram — all come with significant concerns.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 6 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE
2nd: 3 RBs, 8 WRs, 1 TE
3rd: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 7 WRs
4th: 2 QBs, 4 RBs, 6 WRs
5th: 2 QBs, 5 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs
6th: 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE
7th: 3 QBs, 4 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs
8th: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
9th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 2 TEs
10th: 1 QB, 5 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE

My team

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

We were asked to write 35 words per pick to give a little insight as to our draft thoughts:

1:06) WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: He bounces between my WR2 and No. 3. If he and Matthew Stafford are healthy, there’s no reason Kupp won’t return on a No. 6 overall investment in PPR. A line of 120-1,500-12 is within reach.

2:07) WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets: Wilson was impressive as a rookie and now gets a massive upgrade at quarterback. He easily should be Aaron Rodgers‘ No. 1 target and is poised to take his game to a new level in Year 2.

3:06) RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: Henry isn’t an ideal RB1 in PPR, especially in his age-29 season, but he is the offense until proven otherwise. The line improved, and Ryan Tannehill returns, so hopefully there’s one last strong campaign in the tank.

4:07) RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: Gibbs may not have a huge workload, though his receiving chops and David Montgomery‘s lackluster style could have him in the RB2 conversation sooner than later. The O-line is strong, and Gibbs’ efficiency is alluring.

5:06) RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I debated a WR here, but the uncertainty of Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry‘s age swayed me toward White’s dual-threat nature. It may not be pretty in terms of efficiency, but he’ll get the rock aplenty.

6:07) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence were my targets, so I pivoted to Evans as a solid WR3 consolation. Even with Baker Mayfield, Evans still has a shot at 1,000 yards and seven-plus TDs.

7:06) QB Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: Having missed out on my preferred QB targets, I’ll rely on Rodgers playing with a chip on his shoulder in his first season with the Jets. New York boasts plenty of weapons in a system Rodgers knows intimately.

8:07) WR Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints: I banked on Kadarius Toney and/or Chig Okonkwo making it back to me in Round 9, but both went right after this one. It all comes down to Thomas’ health, and he’s a fine WR4 gamble.

9:06) TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans: Since I missed out on Okonkwo, Schultz was a pleasant surprise to see here in PPR. While he may not be a prolific TD scorer, Houston’s QB situation and suspect WR corps means abundant volume.

10:07) RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans: I expect Spears to lock down the top backup job after Hassan Haskins failed to impress last year. Should Derrick Henry miss time, this handcuff is a do-all back with RB2 upside.

11:06) WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers: Doubs as my fifth receiver is well worth the risk associated with Jordan Love being a largely unknown commodity entering his first year as a starter. Green Bay’s No. 2 should be good for a 60-800-5 floor.

12:07) RB Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders: White’s RB2 competition is unimpressive. Purely a gamble on Josh Jacobs breaking down following a monster workload in 2022, White has at least weekly flex utility should the Alabama standout fall to injury.

13:06) QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Top-10 returns are in play if Tagovailoa can avoid getting his bell rung yet again. The weapons are prolific, and he’s a high-upside QB2 behind my starter, Aaron Rodgers.

14:07) WR Kyle Philips, Tennessee Titans: A total flier as my WR6, Philips’ ball skills and role from the slot intrigues me in PPR scoring formats. I can see a winding, uneven path to 50-plus catches and occasional lineup utility.


Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Bonus draft recap!

As part of the magazine mock draft participation agreement, we also took part in a non-PPR version. Here’s my team review for that one:

1:03) RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants: He has a high enough ceiling to finish as the RB1, and the passing game still isn’t strong enough to suggest Brian Daboll will be comfortable not leaning on Barkley. His 2022 workload is my only concern.

2:10) WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Philly is stacked, but the passing game goes through this man. He scored 11 times in 2022, and I won’t be surprised to see that increase as Jalen Hurts continues to grow as a passer.

3:03) RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots: There are several backs who could cut into Stevenson’s overall volume, especially as a receiver, but he’s easily the top back around the stripe with Damien Harris gone. A dozen scores are within reach.

4:10) QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: I rarely draft a QB this early. But in non-PPR scoring, he’s basically another starting running back and still has a good shot at improving as a passer thanks to upgrades and maturation.

5:03) WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers: I’m high on Jordan Love at least being above average. If that’s going to happen, Watson will be a top-24 fantasy option. His game makes him the best bet for leading Green Bay WRs in TDs.

6:10) WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes, his QB situation stinks, but the track record and scoring prowess are strong enough to justify landing him as a No. 3. In Baker We Trust? At least enough for seven TDs to Evans!

7:03) RB Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders: I’m not particularly fond of Eric Bieniemy’s play calling, and Sam Howell makes me nerves. However, Robinson’s goal-line skills put him in play for double-digit scores, and he enters Year 2 healthy, unlike last summer.

8:10) WR Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills: Davis has flashed a number of times but has yet to put it together for a full season. Warts and all, a career rate of a TD every 5.9 grabs is tough to ignore in non-PPR.

9:03) TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans: Okonkwo has all of the tools necessary to shine, and the Titans’ lack of proven receiving outlets, coupled with the possibility of a rookie QB taking over, make him the No. 2 target behind Treylon Burks.

10:10) RB Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars: What’s there not to like about a running back named “Tank” in a TD-heavy format?!? Kidding aside, Travis Etienne isn’t built to shoulder a full load, and Bigsby is the best short-area back on the roster.

11:03) WR Elijah Moore, Cleveland Browns: Touchdowns probably won’t be plentiful, though he scored five times in as many games to close out 2021. The quarterback situation is an upgrade in Cleveland vs. his past QBs, and this late he’s a fine WR5.

12:10) RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans: How many more years can Derrick Henry completely carry the offense? Spears would’ve been an early-round pick if not for two ACL tears. He’s a complete back with major upside in a run-based system.

13:03) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs: The veteran hasn’t scored much over the past two years, but he was a red-zone threat in 2022 and found paydirt 14 times in his first couple of seasons. He’s a steal this late.

14:10) QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Having two QBs with a Week 14 is irrelevant to me. Athletic and well-prepared, Love has weapons, a sound line, RBs to rely on, and offers QB1 potential. I like him for a mid-teens finish.