The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: How are prospects scouted differently than 10 years ago?

How does the changing nature of the NFL in a schematic sense change how NFL teams evaluate draft prospects? Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar investigate.

The NFL is an ever-changing business, and that applies just as much (if not more) to the prospects coming into the NFL as it does to the players who are already there. Schemes and trends and concepts are so different now than they were 10 years ago, or even five years ago, and you’d better be ahead of the game on that in how you evaluate college players for your NFL team.

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into the differences in evaluation for these positions:

Quarterback — There are about as many snaps with quarterbacks moving around and throwing outside the pocket as there were a decade ago, but how have things changed in how these mobile quarterbacks are evaluated? And can you even succeed in the league anymore without those movement skills?

Receiver — The massive increase in pre-snap motion over the last decade has teams thinking differently about receivers, especially smaller receivers who might not have even made an NFL team in 2014. How has this changed the receiver prototypes teams really want?

Offensive Guard — With the increase in quick game passes in the NFL, edge-rushers don’t always have time to get to the quarterback before the ball is out, which means that interior protection is more important than ever. The NFL is paying guards on an entirely different wage scale than it did a decade ago, so why are guards so much more crucial to offensive success than they used to be?

Interior Defensive Lineman — Correspondingly, the league now has a group of massive defensive tackles who can get to the quarterback in some really freaky ways for their various sizes. Where did this group of agile Godzillas come from, and how has their presence shaped what defenses do?

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:

You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

and on Apple Podcasts.

2024 NFL Draft: Florida State WR Johnny Wilson scouting report

Florida State receiver Johnny Wilson is a giant for his current position. Will NFL teams be able to convince him to switch to tight end?

A four-star recruit out of Calabasas High School in Pacoima, California, Johnny Wilson had offers from Florida State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, UCLA and Washington on the table. He originally committed to Oregon, and then changed his choice to Arizona State to play under head coach Herm Edwards. He then transferred to Florida State for the 2022 season after everything fell apart for the Sun Devils. In 2023, Wilson caught 41 passes on 70 targets for 617 yards and two touchdowns. Four of those receptions came on passes of 20 or more air yards for 131 yards.

The interesting question about Wilson at the NFL level is whether he can be convinced to be a tight end. Based on his media session at the combine, it’ll be a tough go.

“If you go look at the Louisville game, the tape speaks for itself,” he told me. “I feel like every week, I showed what I can do. Just look at the Clemson game; they had an elite defense, but I was able to create separation and make some plays against them.”

PLUSES

Wilson’s measurables (6′ 6⅜”, 231, 84½” wingspan) are all 97th to 99th percentile for receivers since 1999. He uses all of that to make himself a consistent contested catch winner with height and size, but also subtle pushoffs and the ability to box cornerbacks out from the line of scrimmage.

— Wilson isn’t the twitchiest receiver in short areas, but he’s better moving into the angles of his routes than you might expect with this many moving parts. Can turn sharply into slants, comebacks, and curls.

— Has decent acceleration in a straight line, though he’s not a third-level burner.

— Can beat press coverage with good foot-feints and crossovers from the line of scrimmage.

MINUSES

— For a guy this size, you’d certainly want to see a wider catch radius. Too many misses when the ball isn’t thrown in his area.

— Had five drops last season, most of which were timing-related.

— Needs to catch the ball away from his body to take better advantage of his ridiculous frame.

— Blocking is iffy at best, which you don’t want to see from a guy this huge. He’s more adept at using that physicality to gain separation than he is a blocker with intent.

— Not quite the YAC monster you might expect.

Maybe teams can convince Wilson to believe in a WR/TE hybrid role where he can win as both an X-Iso and a Y-Iso player. There are things he needs to clean up before he’ll be able to fulfill his athletic potential, but I’d be interested in thinking outside the box a bit in this instance. He brings a lot of fascinating possibilities to the right offense.

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar: Doug’s favorite underrated draft prospects

In this week’s Xs and Os, Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar discuss Ricky Pearsall, Malik Washington, Renardo Green, Max Melton, Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, and Javon Bullard.

In this week’s episode of “The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into six of Doug’s favorite underrated prospects in the 2024 NFL draft — players who most likely won’t hear their names called in the first round next Thursday night, but who all can provide serious value to their soon-to-be NFL teams. Two weeks ago, we focused on “Greg’s Guys” in that same regard. Now, here are Doug’s favorites.

Florida receiver Ricky Pearsall — Will Pearsall be able to maintain his gliding speed, route awareness and amazing catches into contact at the NFL level? We’re betting on “yes.”

Virginia receiver Malik Washington — Washington is a shorter (but not thin) player who can create explosive plays all over the field; a team like the Chiefs (for example) should be watching as much of his tape as possible right now.

Florida State cornerback Renardo Green — Green projects well as an outside cornerback despite a lack of desired size, but how will his NFL team deploy him?

Rutgers cornerback Max Melton — In Melton’s case, his NFL team will love his ability to match receivers all over the field, and they’ll likely see the necessary technique fixes as a worthy time investment.

Texas Tech safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson — More than any other safety in this class, Taylor-Demerson has field-scalding speed when in coverage. If he can tamp down the more rogue elements of his athleticism, he could be an easy Pro Bowler.

Georgia safety Javon Bullard — Over the last two seasons, Georgia asked Bullard to completely change his positional profile in ways most college defenders are not asked to do, and he did it all very well. That should make him an easy prospect for most NFL teams.

You can watch this week’s “X and Os” right here:

You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

and on Apple Podcasts

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Paths to NFL success for 2024 draft quarterbacks

In this week’s “Xs and Os,” the guys talk NFL success for Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., and J.J. McCarthy.

One of the hardest things to do in any sport is to correctly predict the paths to success for draftable quarterbacks in their transition to the NFL. For every quarterback who becomes a success in the NFL. there are at least two who don’t. Some of those quarterbacks excelled in collegiate offenses that fluffed up their skill sets, but those skill sets just don’t work in the league. Some quarterbacks find themselves with the wrong coaching situation, and the connection required to get things going at the next level just isn’t there.

So, when we look to the 2024 draft, and the major quarterbacks therein, how can we best extrapolate success? In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into the universal traits required for NFL success, and specific fits for these specific quarterbacks:

Caleb Williams, USC — Can Williams’ NFL coaches tamp down his more rogue tendencies, without muting the special off-schedule things he can accomplish?

Jayden Daniels, LSU — How can Daniels’ NFL coaches keep the explosive aspects of his college offense going while further developing the nuances Daniels already understands?

Drake Maye, North Carolina — Maye’s NFL coaches will need to temper their enthusiasm for a physical resume that is pro-ready right now, while working to accentuate the things that still need work.

Michael Penix Jr., Washington — With Penix, how much will his injury history and performance against defensive pressure mitigate his ball-winning downfield accuracy?

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan — McCarthy is the most prominent “game manager” in this class, so how will his NFL coaches make the most of his skills, while understanding that he’s just not an explosive play waiting to happen?

If you’re missing Oregon’s Bo Nix here, we didn’t discuss Nix in this episode because we recently talked ball and watched tape with Nix for nearly an hour. You can find that episode right here:

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Watching tape with Oregon QB Bo Nix

As to this week’s “Xs and Os,” you can watch it (and subscribe to our YouTube channel) right here:

You can also listen and subscribe to “The Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

and on Apple Podcasts.

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Greg’s favorite players in the 2024 NFL draft

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell,” Greg details the attributes of his some of his favorite prospects in the 2024 NFL draft class.

With just a few weeks until the 2024 NFL draft gets underway on April 25, it’s time to get a bit in the weeks with our prospect evaluation processes. So it is in “The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” with Greg (of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup) and Doug (of USA Today Sports Media Group and Touchdown Wire) discussing some of Greg’s favorite prospects in this year’s draft class.

  • Trey Benson, RB, Florida State
  • Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, Purdue
  • Anthony Gould, WR, Oregon State
  • Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
  • Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
  • Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
  • Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas
  • Cole Bishop, Safety, Utah

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

and on Apple Podcasts.

2024 NFL Draft: South Carolina WR Xavier Legette scouting report

South Carolina receiver Xavier Legette was a late bloomer in the NCAA, but he’s ready to be an explosive target in the NFL.

It took South Carolina receiver Xavier Legette a while to stand out, but when he did, he really did. Legette caught 71 passes on 97 targets for 1.255 yards and seven touchdowns in the Gamecocks’ 2023 season after totaling 42 catches on 76 targets for 423 yards and five touchdowns in his previous four seasons… combined.

But when it hit for Legette, he showed characteristics on the field that put him right up there with the NCAA’s best receivers in terms of productivity and explosiveness. Legette had 13 catches last season of 20 or more air yards for 554 yards and four touchdowns, and there’s more meat on that bone at the NFL level as Legette continues to refine his route palette.

“The coaches put me in place for those routes, man,” Legette said at the scouting combine of his breakout season. “Just working on those things. I had ways that I worked on those things all throughout the week. I’d go out there and work on the stuff I feel like I needed to work on Monday through Thursday, and that’s what helped me build my route tree.”

Legette is also close with 49ers receiver (and South Carolina alum) Deebo Samuel, whose play style he clearly favors.

“I’ve been talking to him since I got to South Carolina. Oh, man. Deebo, man, he ain’t taking it easy on me. He tells me, ‘If you don’t do this,’ then he’s going to be mad at me. I just try to keep him happy.”

Legette might take a second to get the hang of NFL defenses, but he’s already shown that he’s worth consideration as a late bloomer who brings a lot to a passing game.

PLUSES

— 6-foot-1, 221-pound frame, and plays bigger on the field. He’s a nightmare to cover on contested targets because he’ll just Godzilla his way over the defender.

— Nice get-up speed and acceleration downfield; can turn a drag route into a house call. Uses his stride length as a weapon.

— Can easily detach from man and match coverage; with some footwork development, he could be a real bear against press coverage.

— Has a good sense of how to get under zones to make timing and rhythm catches.

— Tackling him with anything but a square-up is a bad idea when he’s downfield; arm-tackles aren’t going to do it.

MINUSES

— One-year star who totaled 1,255 receiving yards in his 2023 season, and 423 the four seasons before. Some of the rawness comes from there.

— Needs development in his route nuances, though he does have nice short-area movement for his size. There’s an extra tick on a lot of his routes that will need to be squared off.

— Tends to fall apart on screens and swing passes that should be gimmes for someone of his stature.

— The Deebo Samuel comps are instructive, but he’s not that type of runner just yet.

I absolutely love the high points of Legette’s tape. Yes, he’s a somewhat raw prospects, but the athletic profile comes in somewhere between Deebo and A.J. Brown. He’s a more than worthy investment.

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: What does the scouting combine really mean?

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into what the scouting combine really means for NFL teams and top draft prospects.

Once the scouting combine is over every year — and this year’s version concluded last week — NFL scouts, coaches and personnel executives are left with reams of new information to deal with, and to add to their previous evaluations.

So, what does that really mean? And what can a great combine performance really do for a draft prospect? For example, Texas receiver Xavier Worthy broke the combine record with a 4.1-second 40-yard dash. If he already plays extremely fast on the field, what does that add to his evaluation? Or if a player like Washington left tackle Troy Fautanu aces all his drills and crushes it in the meeting rooms with NFL teams, how does he really come out the other side in the minds of the people who are set to select him in the 2024 NFL draft?

In this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar,” the guys get into what the scouting combine really means, their individual experiences at this year’s event, and how drill work really matches up to game tape and NFL transitions for multiple top prospects.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:

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You can also listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

and on Apple Podcasts.

The Xs and Os with Greg Cosell: Super Bowl LVIII recap edition

Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar review Super Bowl LVIII between the Chiefs and 49ers as only they can in this week’s “Xs and Os.”

Now that Super Bowl LVIII is in the books, and the Kansas City Chiefs have established themselves as the NFL’s nest dynasty with their 25-22 overtime win over the San Francisco 49ers, it’s time for Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup, and Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire and the USA Today Sports Media Group, to review everything as only they can with copious tape study and advanced metrics.

Among the topics discussed in this week’s “Xs and Os with Greg Cosell and Doug Farrar”:

  • Steve Spagnuolo’s shocking man-blitz plan.
  • How Trent McDuffie made that deflection with 2:00 left in regulation.
  • Was Chris Jones robbed of a Super Bowl MVP award for the second time in four years?
  • Why Spags went so heavy with nickel, and Cover-0 stuff.
  • Why Brock Purdy wasn’t the reason the 49ers lost.
  • Was Dre Greenlaw’s injury a major factor in the game or not?
  • How were the Chiefs able to spot man coverage on Travis Kelce’s huge fourth-quarter catch?
  • How Patrick Mahomes showed his development as a quarterback at the most important points of his season…
  • …and why Mahomes’ biggest throw in the Super Bowl was the one he never should have attempted.

You can watch this week’s “Xs and Os” right here:

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You can listen and subscribe to the “Xs and Os” podcast on Spotify…

and on Apple Podcasts.

The Chiefs’ Super Bowl LVIII blitz plan was very risky, but perfectly done

The Chiefs’ blitz concepts against Brock Purdy in Super Bowl LVIII went completely against type — and worked more often than they didn’t.

Going into Super Bowl LVIII, the Kansas City Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo knew one thing about San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy: Throughout the 2023 NFL season, Purdy had ripped opposing defenses to shreds when they blitzed him. Purdy had 101 completions in 150 attempts for 1,534 yards, 701 air yards, 15 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 128.6. The Chiefs had sent five or more pass-rushers on 208 opponent attempts, fourth-most in the NFL. And on those 208 attempts, opposing quarterbacks completed 112 passes for 1,122 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 76.2.

Perhaps more interestingly, the Chiefs blitzed just 81 times on opponent passing attempts pre-Super Bowl with man coverage behind it, allowing 33 completions for 360 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 56.6. But against five or more pass-rushers with man coverage, Purdy had been even better, completing 40 of 64 for 806 yards, 404 air yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 137.5.

So, this was best on best coming into the Super Bowl, which makes you think that Spagnuolo might not send a ton of man blitzes in the biggest game of the season.

Au contraire, mon frere.

Against the Chiefs’ man blitzes, Purdy completed 11 of 21 passes for 149 yards, his one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 91.2. Not bad, but not the Purdy we’ve seen against these concepts through the season.

Why did this work for the Chiefs? They were brilliant when it came to presenting Purdy with pressure and coverage concepts that didn’t really make sense, but worked even when the 49ers had answers.

The Chiefs ran a zero blitz with 7:04 left in the second quarter, down 3-0. The 49ers actually blocked the six-man pressure up very well with Willie Gay as the fifth rusher from the  left defensive edge, and Nick Bolton on the right side as the sixth rusher. It was six-on-six with George Kittle in the formation because Christian McCaffrey released from the backfield on play action into a choice route, while L’Jarius Sneed had Jauan Jennings to the right offensive side on the dig route, and Trent McDuffie had Deebo Samuel up the numbers on the other side.

Purdy had time to scan those possibilities, but both receivers were locked down. Purdy had two practical choices – hit McCaffrey on the choice route, or hit Brandon Aiyuk on the flat route to the left side out of motion, which probably would have gone for about the same result – six yards – because Chamarri Conner was manned up on Aiyuk, and Aiyuk didn’t look like he would have gotten very far after the catch. This was a fascinating example to me of how much Spags trusts his defensive backs to shut things down in coverage concepts that would normally favor the offense – and would normally favor the offense to an extreme degree if the quarterback is left clean.

Also important was that when the Chiefs sent those man blitzes, most of the 49ers’ yards came after the catch — there weren’t a lot of explosive opportunities downfield, outside of this 18-yard first quarter completion to receiver Chris Conley, when Conley beat cornerback Jaylen Watson on an out-cut.

“Man, it was just tough,” Purdy said postgame of the Chiefs’ defense. “I feel like first and second down was tough. We’d always – I feel like it was like third and long. I have to be better on first and second down, taking what they have given me, and I feel like they were just sticky across the board when they played man coverage and stuff so that was another challenge. So, I just feel like on third down, I have to execute better. For our defense to give us that many stops like they did, and then for us to go three now and not do anything with those opportunities, that’s what hurts me.”

It hurt the 49ers throughout the game, and it was one of the most unexpected parts of Super Bowl LVIII.

Five things the San Francisco 49ers must do to win Super Bowl LVIII

If the San Francisco 49ers are to win Super Bowl LVIII, they might want to pay attention to these five advanced scouting points.

Every Super Bowl comes down to a few big plays, and a few key matchups. You never know what it’s going to be, but when the game is over, and it’s time for coaches and players to review what happened and why, everyone will go back to their advanced scouting reports — how they aligned their guys and how those guys played from a schematic perspective — and try to discern what went right and what went wrong.

Not that we’re professional advanced scouts at Touchdown Wire, but here are five things the San Francisco 49ers should probably pay close attention to when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs today in Super Bowl LVIII.

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