Tiger Woods: 2022 Masters prop bet picks and predictions

Analyzing Tiger Woods’ odds and prop bets for the 2022 Masters with PGA Tour picks and predictions.

The week began with folks tracking the flight of what was believed to be Tiger Woods’ plane from Florida to Georgia. Since then, Woods has said he’ll tee it up at the 2022 Masters, hoping to complete a remarkable comeback from a horrifying car crash that left Woods’ right leg badly injured.

The fact that he’s even able to play competitively 13 months after that crash is incredible, and he’s become a popular pick to contend this week at Augusta. Below, we break down Tiger Woods’ 2022 Masters odds and prop bets and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Woods isn’t fully healthy, even saying that scaling the hills of Augusta National will be a challenge. That’s the hard part for him: Walking 72 holes. However, when asked if he believes he can win this week, he replied very simply: “I do.”

He hasn’t logged an official round since the 2020 Masters that November, so he has some rust to knock off. But anyone who’s doubted Woods before has learned never to do so again.

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Tiger Woods’ Masters odds and picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday 3:36 p.m. ET.

To win (+5000)

At +5000, Woods is tied for the 19th-best odds to slip on his 6th green jacket Sunday. Anyone else who hasn’t played a competitive round in a year and a half wouldn’t have those short of odds, but this is Tiger Woods.

While it’s fun to picture him winning his 6th Masters and his 2nd in the last 4 years, we also have to be realistic about our expectations for the likely Hall of Famer. Fatigue could set in and/or rust could show up.

I’m not fading Woods, and I’ll sprinkle a little bit on him to win outright for the sake of having a rooting interest Sunday.

Top-5 finish (+900)

Aside from his win in 2019, Woods’ last top-5 showing at the Masters was in 2013. His track record at Augusta is undeniable. He placed T6 eight times during a 9-year stretch between 2005-13, always finding himself in contention. But this week, I’d rather go all-in by betting him to win outright or playing it a little safer to finish top 20.

Top-10 finish (+400)

A top-10 finish comes with decent value at +400. But when Woods finishes in the top 10 at the Masters, he’s typically inside the top 5, too, or wins outright. Of his 14 top-10 finishes as the Masters, he was in the top 5 12 times. For that reason, I’d rather take him to finish top 5 instead of top 10.

Top-20 finish (+150)

I actually like Woods’ odds to finish in the top 20. Yes, the field is loaded, but even in recent years, Woods has remained competitive and in contention. Plus, with the cut only being 50 players, as long as he gets to the weekend, he’ll have a good chance to finish in the top 20.


More Tiger Woods’ odds and predictions

Will Tiger Woods make the cut? Yes -110 | No -125

Yes. Woods can play Augusta with his eyes closed and hasn’t missed the cut at the Masters since – wait for it – 1996! Obviously, he’s playing this week under different circumstances, but still. I think he’ll be playing the weekend because he only has to be better than 41 other players.

Top former winner group (+900)

This is a pretty big group and a talented one, too. But Woods won’t have to contend with most of the top players in the field – guys like Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Brooks Koepka.

Dustin Johnson (+240) is the favorite among the former winners, followed by Jordan Spieth (+280), Adam Scott (+650) and 2021 winner Hideki Matsuyama (+700). Woods is tied with Sergio Garcia and Patrick Reed for the fifth-best odds in this group and it’s a good way to bet him to have a good week without competing against the odds-on favorites.

Top American finisher (+3000)

This group excludes some of the top players at the Masters. Rahm, Cameron Smith, McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Matsuyama and Louis Oosthuizen all have better odds to win than Woods, but by his odds shorten a bit when taking him to be the top American. There’s too much American talent for me to take this bet, though.

More Masters coverage:

Tiger Woods’ Masters first-round odds

  • Leader +5000 (bet $100 to win $5,000)
  • Top American +3000 (bet $100 to win $,3000)
  • Top 5 +1000 (bet $100 to win $1,000)
  • Top 10 +500 (bet $100 to win $500)
  • Top 20 +200 (bet $100 to win $200)

I’m hesitant to bet any of Woods’ Round 1 lines. We just don’t know what his game is going to look like, nor do we know how he’ll fare walking around Augusta with all of its elevation changes.

Then again, if you take him to be top 20 after the first round, all it takes is a solid 18 holes for that wager to cash at winning ticket, not a full 72 holes.

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How to bet Tiger Woods at the Genesis Invitational: Outright odds & props

Looking at Tiger Woods’ chances of success at the 2020 Genesis Invitational, including PGA Tour betting options within the tournament.

Tiger Woods will take his second attempt at breaking the PGA Tour’s all-time wins records this week when he tees it up at the 2020 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, Calif. He’ll be competing against the strongest PGA Tour field of the year to date.

We look at Tiger’s chances of claiming his 83rd career victory, with PGA Tour betting odds and picks for the 2020 Genesis Invitational.

Tiger Woods’ history at Riviera Country Club

Woods, the tournament host, has never won at Riviera Country Club, which has hosted an annual event since 1999. He was a co-runner-up in ’99, finishing two strokes behind Ernie Els in a tie with Davis Love III and Ted Tryba. He didn’t play in the 1995 PGA Championship held at Riviera.

Tiger finished in a tie for 15th last year, two months before his Masters win, but he missed the cut in 2018 in his first appearance since withdrawing from the 2006 Nissan Open. He has made 12 career appearances at Riviera without a win.


Tiger Woods’ key stats for the Genesis Invitational

Based on historical tournament data from Fantasy National, my key stats for the week are:

  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • Birdies Gained
  • Driving Distance Gained
  • Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 Yards

The model looks at the last 50 rounds on courses between 7,200 and 7,400 yards.

Tiger ranks eighth by the overall stat model with a top rank of 10th in Birdies Gained. He’s one spot behind Adam Scott and a spot ahead of Jon Rahm. His worst field rank is a 48th in Par 4 Efficiency on the longer holes.

Outright odds for the Genesis Invitational

Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8 a.m. ET.

Woods is +1600 to win the 2020 Genesis Invitational, entering the week as the fifth favorite. While it’s a better number than he had at the Farmers Insurance Open (+1100) for his 2020 debut at Torrey Pines (a course which he’s had much more success at) there are better options with more enticing odds. Brooks Koepka, ranked No. 2 in the Official World Golf Ranking, is +2000 to win outright. Three-time Riviera champ Bubba Watson is +2200.

I would rather back Woods at +175 to finish in the Top 10. This is a loaded 120-man field featuring eight of the top 10 golfers in the world, and there are other values with better course history. It’s a good week to play it a little safer with Tiger as he ramps up his preparation for the 2020 Masters Tournament.

Best Props on Tiger Woods to win the Genesis Invitational

Looking to place a bet on Tiger Woods or this tournament? Get some action on it at BetMGMSign up and bet at BetMGM now!

Woods, ranked eighth in the OWGR to begin the week, is in a group with Rory McIlroy (1), Jon Rahm (3), Justin Thomas (4) and Dustin Johnson (5). Accordingly, he has the longest odds of the five golfers in Group A at +500. I like this number less than the outright odds, as the winner is most likely to come from this group. PASS.

For head-to-head betting, Tiger (+100) is paired against Johnson (-125), who won the then-Genesis Open by a five-stroke margin at 17-under par in 2017. There is value in backing the two to tie at +1600. It’s my favorite play for Tiger this week.

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Fantasy Golf Power Rankings for the Genesis Invitational

Analyzing the best fantasy golf options for the 2020 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club.

Riviera Country Club hosts the PGA Tour’s best event of the season thus far in this week’s Genesis Invitational. Eight of the top-10 golfers from the Official World Golf Ranking are part of the 120-man field. Below, we rank the best fantasy golf options for the 2020 Genesis Invitational.

Genesis Invitational: Fantasy Golf Top 30

(Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)

Here are my top-30 fantasy golf rankings for the 2020 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club.

30. Marc Leishman

The Farmers Insurance Open champion has had mixed results over his last five appearances at Riviera CC, with three missed cuts and two top-5 results. He has been erratic with the driver of late and won’t have much room for error here.

29. Jordan Spieth

Typically reliant on his putter, Spieth gained 7.8 strokes from tee-to-green at last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am en route to a ninth-place finish. He’ll need to stay in control of his driver.

28. Jason Kokrak

Still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, Kokrak was a co-runner-up here in 2016, and he hasn’t missed the cut in any of his last five appearances. He’s coming off a week of rest, as he returns to one of his favorite courses.

27. Joaquin Niemann

Niemann opened the 2019-20 season with a victory at A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier. His only top-10 result since was a T-5 at the 30-man Sentry Tournament of Champions, but the expert ball striker is a strong fit for his second attempt at Riviera.

(Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel – USA TODAY Sports)

26. Matthew Fitzpatrick

Fitzpatrick will play on the PGA Tour for the second week in a row after a T-60 finish at Pebble Beach. The five-time winner on the European Tour makes his debut at this event.

25. Kevin Na

Na was a co-runner-up in 2018 following a T-4 in 2017. He tied for 14th last week for his best finish since winning the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He’s one of the best in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.

24. J.B. Holmes

The defending champ has ramped up his play coming into the week with three straight top-20 finishes. He has been excellent off the tee and with the driver, and he has been starting strong before fading over the weekend.

Also see: Genesis Invitational odds, predictions, picks and PGA Tour best bets

23. Sungjae Im

Im missed the cut in his debut at this event last year, but he won the Korean Tour’s Genesis Championship in mid-October for his third pro victory.

22. Abraham Ancer

The little-known 29th-ranked golfer in the OWGR is coming off a T-6 finish at the Saudi International following his runner-up result at The American Express. He finished T-44 here last year and T-68 in 2018.

21. Matt Kuchar

Kuchar isn’t a great course fit as a shorter hitter, but he’s strong around the greens and on par 4s. His best result at this event in the last five years was a T-8 in 2016.

(Photo Credit: Kyle Terada – USA TODAY Sports)

20. Phil Mickelson

Lefty made a great run at defending his title at Pebble Beach, before ultimately falling behind eventual winner Nick Taylor. He won this event back-to-back in 2008 and 2009, and more recently finished T-6 in 2018.

19. Patrick Reed

Reed makes his first appearance here since a T-59 result in 2017. He’s one of the best on Tour around the greens, but he’ll need to improve off the tee this week.

18. Collin Morikawa

The star sophomore will compete in one of the strongest fields of his pro career. He enters the week ranked 53rd by the OWGR. He just needs to be average around the greens and with his putter in order to compete.

17. Paul Casey

Casey was a co-runner-up in 2015, but while he made the cut each of the last four years, he hasn’t finished better than last year’s T-25. He can score low at these longer venues and there are eagle opportunities on this course.

16. Jason Day

Day finished T-64 in his only trip to Riviera in the last five years (2017). He finished fourth last week and seemed to recapture his expert play around the greens.

(Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale – USA TODAY Sports)

15. Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau tied for 15th last year for his best result in three appearances. He finished just 52nd at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but he excelled off the tee, and it will shine through much more at Riviera.

14. Sergio Garcia

Sergio tied for sixth at the Saudi International and will participate in a PGA Tour event for the first time since the WGC-HSBC Champions. He ranks eighth in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking over everyone’s last 50 rounds on courses measuring 7,200 to 7,400 yards, per my stat model at Fantasy National.

13. Tony Finau

Finau has the ability to overpower the long par 4s (450-500 yards), which are a common theme at Riviera. He’ll need to overcome another Sunday collapse at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

12. Hideki Matsuyama

Matsuyama tied for ninth last year after skipping the 2018 event following a missed cut in 2017. He was previously T-4 in 2015 and T-11 in 2016 and clearly a fan of the course.

11. Xander Schauffele

Schauffele debuted with a T-9 result in 2018 and followed it up with a T-15 last year. He missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open but bounced back with a T-16 at the Waste Management Open before taking last week off.

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10. Justin Rose

Rose enters the week 10th in the OWGR after a missed cut at the Farmers. He skipped this event the last two years following a T-4 in 2017 and T-16 in 2016.

(Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez – USA TODAY Sports)

9. Tiger Woods

Tiger will take his second try at his record-breaking 83rd career PGA Tour victory. He hasn’t done particularly well at this event since back-to-back runner-up finishes in 1998 (at Valencia Country Club) and 1999, but he can score low and is in top form with his irons.

8. Bubba Watson

Watson has three wins here since 2014. He’s coming off a T-3 in Phoenix following his T-6 at the Farmers to open his 2020 season. He has the driving distance, and he has been putting very well through those two events.

7. Adam Scott

Scott has gained more strokes per round at Riviera than all but two others in this field among those with at least 10 rounds played, according to Data Golf. He’ll tee it up for the first time since his win at the Australian PGA Championship.

6. Patrick Cantlay

Cantlay tied for fourth in his debut at Riviera in 2018 and followed it up with a T-15 last year. He’s one of the top ball strikers in the field and he excels on the long par 4s.

(Photo Credit: Butch Dill – USA TODAY Sports)

5. Brooks Koepka

Koepka will participate in his first event ranked something other than first in the OWGR since the 2019 PGA Championship, after he gave way to Rory McIlroy Monday morning. He missed the cut in his lone appearance here over the last five years (2015), but he certainly has the motivation this time around.

4. Dustin Johnson

Johnson won this event by five strokes at 17-under par in 2017. He has two other top 5s, another top 10 and a T-16 in his other four visits to Riviera in the last five years. No one in the field has averaged more strokes gained per round at this venue.

3. Rory McIlroy

McIlroy, the new world No. 1, ranks second to Johnson in strokes gained at Riviera over his 12 rounds played. He tied for fourth last year after finishing T-20 in 2018 and 2016.

2. Jon Rahm

Rahm hasn’t missed the cut in a PGA Tour event since last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, and he hasn’t finished worse than T-13 in that time, either. He has been as steady as they come, and he shines in these fields.

1. Justin Thomas

Thomas gave this tournament away to Holmes last year with a Sunday round of 75 in poor weather. He has finished in the top 10 each of the last two years and has already won twice in the 2019-20 season.

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