Analytics show where 49ers should have kicked off in Super Bowl overtime

The analytics on kicking or receiving the overtime kick in the playoffs (Kyle Shanahan wasn’t wrong to receive… but he also wasn’t right?):

The 49ers’ decision to receive the opening kickoff of overtime in the Super Bowl became a major discussion point after San Francisco’s crushing defeat at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan said after the game the team’s goal with receiving was to control the third possession. In the event the teams were tied after one possession each, the 49ers would then be able to win the game with a field goal.

Of course, it never got to that point because San Francisco kicked a field goal and the Chiefs scored a touchdown to win the game. Perhaps things would’ve gone different had the 49ers done what they usually do when they win the coin toss and took the ball second.

However, Walker Harrison, a quantitative analyst for the New York Yankees, crunched the data on the playoff overtime rules and it turns out there’s no surefire right choice.

Harrison’s numbers show no real advantage either way:

He posted another version with a legend that explains the methodology:

Alas, there are a ton of elements that factor into a coach’s decision. Surely the 49ers’ defense being nearly out of gas by the end of regulation also factored into Shanahan’s decision.

In a results-based business though the decision that led to a loss was the wrong one regardless of what the numbers say. That’s how Shanahan will be judged.

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PODCAST: Super Bowl reactions, new Super Bowl odds, trading for Haason Reddick

Listen as Jess Root and Seth Cox discuss the latest with the Arizona Cardinals.

The Kansas City Chiefs are Super Bowl champions, beating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime. In this edition of the podcast, Seth Cox and I react to the game, the ending and the result.

Then we talk about new Super Bowl LIX odds, where the Cardinals stand and then discuss Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick and how he is available to trade for.

Should the Cardinals bring back their former first-round pick?


Enjoy the show with the embedded player above or by subscribing to the show on Apple PodcastsSpotify or your favorite podcast platform, so you never miss a show. Make sure as well to give it a five-star rating!


Times and topics:

(1:00) Reactions to Super Bowl LVIII

(41:33) Super Bowl LIX odds and the Cardinals

(54:02) Should the Cardinals trade for Haason Reddick?

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Zulgad: Vikings shouldn’t be scared of losing Kirk Cousins, even if they have to turn to bridge quarterback

Judd Zulgad explains why the Minnesota Vikings shouldn’t be scared to lose Kirk Cousins because of a bridge quarterback like Sam Darnold.

The Minnesota Vikings have avoided quarterback tumult since signing Kirk Cousins as a free agent in March 2018. This isn’t to say Cousins hasn’t been a polarizing figure among fans, but there was no uncertainty about who would be starting at quarterback for the Vikings until Cousins suffered an Achilles injury in late October.

It appears that stability is about to come to an end.

The NFL season concluded on Sunday with the Kansas City Chiefs’ overtime win against San Francisco in the Super Bowl, and that means the offseason frenzy is about to begin. The new league year will begin a month from Tuesday, and Cousins is expected to be one of the most pursued free agents on the market.

The Vikings reportedly are interested in bringing back Cousins, but it seems they want it to be on their terms. Last March, the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement on an extension, in part because the Vikings reportedly wanted a shorter-term deal than what the Cousins camp was pursuing. It was agreed talks would be shelved until the offseason. But the closer Cousins gets to free agency, the more likely it becomes that a guy who turns 36 in August is going to see what the market has to offer.

The hope has to be that the Vikings have spent the past 11 months preparing for life after Cousins. The 2023 season helped his cause in part because his absence resulted in the Vikings playing three backups (Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall and Nick Mullens) who couldn’t take hold of the job. But the Vikings’ 3-6 record also put on display many other shortcomings that need fixing.

Super Bowl week is the perfect place for rumors and rumblings to be bandied about, and Tom Pelissero of NFL Network linked the Vikings to San Francisco backup Sam Darnold.

This resulted in some not-so-favorable reactions. Darnold spent three seasons with the New York Jets after being the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft. He had a two-year stop in Carolina and was Brock Purdy’s backup with the 49ers this season.

Is Darnold a name that should excite fans? No. What needs to be remembered is that Darnold would be a bridge to a QB the Vikings are likely to draft this April. That could be Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. The Vikings also could trade into the top of the draft and grab North Carolina’s Drake Maye or LSU’s Jayden Daniels.

Watching the Chiefs and 49ers on Sunday, it became clear just how far the Vikings are from competing at that level in the playoffs. Minnesota general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah needs to improve several areas of his team, especially on defense, and overall the Vikings need far more quality depth than they currently have.

This isn’t the time to run things back, but rather to move on from veterans and hit a reset that will set up the Vikings for the future. Cousins was brought to Minnesota in 2018 because he was considered the final piece of what the Vikings thought was a Super Bowl puzzle. That team was coming off a loss at Philadelphia in the NFC title game and wanted to upgrade from a backup who had a career year, Case Keenum, to a long-term replacement.

Cousins proved to be exactly that — the season-ending Achilles injury marked the first time in his nine years as a starter he missed time because of injury — but he fell well short when it came to being the final piece of a Super Bowl puzzle. The Vikings missed the postseason in 2018 and made only two playoff appearances in Cousins’ six seasons. They won one game.

Cousins deserves the opportunity to get one more big contract in free agency and go to a team that believes the same thing the Vikings did in 2018 — that it is on the verge of hoisting a Lombardi Trophy.

Maybe Cousins will surprise us and decide he likes Minnesota so much that he will stay on a short-term, discount deal that will put him in a position to start for one more season and, just as importantly, serve as a mentor to a guy like McCarthy.

That, however, seems like a long shot, and the Vikings have to know it.

That puts the Vikings in a position to pursue Darnold or Jacoby Brissett or Gardner Minshew and draft the future starter. ESPN’s Dan Graziano reported over the weekend that the New England Patriots may be open to trading the third overall pick and that the Vikings and Falcons were teams to “keep an eye on” as far as potential trade partners.

Graziano also reported that some in the Vikings organization liked the idea of moving up and trying to get Daniels to pair with another LSU alum, wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Of course, if the Vikings get Maye or Daniels, odds are good he will be the Week 1 starter and the bridge quarterback will be there only in case of emergency.

While there is risk in taking this route, the Vikings are in the ideal position to do it. If it backfires, that could cost Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell their jobs. If the Vikings bring back Cousins at a significant price tag and keep running it back, both the GM and coach are likely to be shown the door sooner rather than later.

Judd Zulgad is co-host of the Purple Daily Podcast and Mackey & Judd podcast at www.skornorth.com.

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What can the Vikings learn from Super Bowl 58? The Real Forno Show

With the 2023 season finally complete, all eyes have officially shifted to the 2024 NFL draft. While others are just getting to that point, we have been discussing the prospects of the Minnesota Vikings NFL draft prospects for quite awhile on The …

With the 2023 season finally complete, all eyes have officially shifted to the 2024 NFL draft. While others are just getting to that point, we have been discussing the prospects of the Minnesota Vikings NFL draft prospects for quite awhile on The Real Forno Show.

What can the Vikings do to improve their team moving forward? The Super Bowl on Sunday night had multiple different themes to look at in order to get to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

  • The defensive line needs to be a priority
  • Elite level quarterback play matters
  • Don’t have a massive weakness on the offensive line
  • Linebackers are a necessity

To finish the show, there are 17 different players who have been mocked to the Vikings over the first six weeks of the 2024 calendar across 133 mock drafts. What can we get from who experts are sending the Vikings in the first round?

We are here to break it all down and more on the latest episode of The Real Forno Show, airing Monday and Wednesday nights at 6 pm central on the Vikings 1st & SKOL YouTube channel.

49ers have a lot of really awful losses in recent history

Most fans would kill to see their team in 7 conference championship games and 3 Super Bowls in 13 seasons. For 49ers fans that reality has been a nightmare. On every bad loss for San Francisco since 2011:

An overtime loss in the Super Bowl where leads in the final two minutes of the game and in overtime were both not enough to secure a victory? Add it to the ever-increasing list of abysmal 49ers losses in recent history.

That’s the hard part about San Francisco’s 25-22 OT loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII – it’s a strange type of sports agony. It is undoubtedly present, but it has also been lingering since this stretch of rough finishes began in the 2011 season, so there’s also a numbing sensation that comes with the 49ers losing their final game of the year in a fashion that looks like it was conceived by some combination of NFL Films and the guy who created the Saw franchise.

Some would call 49ers fans lucky. There are teams like the Jets who haven’t been to the playoffs very often and then lost new quarterback Aaron Rodgers on the first drive of the year. Those fans would kill to see their team make as many deep playoff runs as 49ers fans have experienced over the last decade and change.

49ers fans probably feel something that’s the antithesis of lucky. Unlucky, some might call it.

Since the 2011 season the 49ers have been to seven NFC championship games – that’s 54 percent of the NFC title games in that stretch. They’ve also been to three Super Bowls – that’s 23 percent of those.

Almost every team and fan base would love that kind of postseason resume. For the 49ers though, all it amounts to is heartbreak, and it never ends in normal fashion where they just lose by a couple scores. It’s always gut-wrenching. Here’s a rundown of how each 49ers playoff run has ended since 2011:

Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo: ‘Brock Purdy is really good’

Do you know who was impressed by Brock Purdy’s Super Bowl performance? The Chiefs defensive coaching staff:

There aren’t a ton of silver linings for the 49ers after their latest playoff disappointment, but the play of quarterback Brock Purdy in Super Bowl LVIII should provide at least a little bit of optimism for the future. Even the Chiefs defensive coaching staff was impressed by the 49ers’ young signal caller.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, whose defense tied quarterbacks in knots all season, had high praise for Purdy after the game.

“The zones, I just think their wideouts and quarterback are so good at their timing routes, and Brock Purdy is really good,” Spagnuolo said via MMQB. “He knew when we were in certain things, and he found seams.”

Purdy competed 23-of-38 throws for 255 yards and one touchdown with no turnovers. He also led three go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter and overtime, and over those two periods completed 9-of-13 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown.

MMQB’s Albert Breer noted on Twitter that one Chiefs coach even compared Purdy to future Hall of Famer Drew Brees.

Sunday’s loss was a brutal one that the 49ers probably feel like they could have (or should have) won, but if Purdy is as good as the Kansas City coaching staff says he is, this won’t be his last opportunity to win a championship.

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What we learned about 49ers QB Brock Purdy in Super Bowl LVIII

Brock Purdy wasn’t perfect in the Super Bowl, but he was excellent in the biggest spots. At least for now it looks like the #49ers long-term answer at quarterback.

It’s hard to take away a lot of good from the 49ers’ 25-22 overtime loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. However, quarterback Brock Purdy’s performance gives some hope that San Francisco has a signal caller it can win a Super Bowl with.

Purdy finished Sunday’s game 23-of-38 for 255 yards and one touchdown with no turnovers. It was perhaps his cleanest game of the playoffs.

More important than that though was how Purdy and the 49ers offense adjusted throughout the game. He went 10-of-15 for 123 yards in the first half, helping San Francisco build a 10-3 lead.

Then things got sideways in the third quarter as a stingy Chiefs defense tightened the clamps after halftime. In that third quarter Kansas City loaded the box and forced the 49ers into an uncomfortable spot where they couldn’t lean on their run game.

Purdy in that third quarter was just 4-of-10 for 25 yards, with one of his completions accounting for 17 of the yards.

This is ultimately where an improvement from him will come into play. San Francisco can’t be in a spot where a team taking away the run completely stagnates their offense. Purdy making one or two more individually great plays to help loosen up the Chiefs’ defense might have been the difference in a lopsided third quarter that saw the Chiefs go from down 10-3 to up 13-10.

The reason there’s optimism that Purdy can grow into that type of player is how he responded in the fourth quarter and overtime.

After a dismal third quarter, Purdy bounced back by completing 5-of-7 throws in the fourth quarter for 57 yards and a touchdown. His 10-yard TD pass to wide receiver Jauan Jennings put San Francisco ahead 16-13 with 11:22 left. After Kansas City tied it at 16, Purdy led a drive that got the 49ers into field goal range and allowed them to take a 19-16 lead with 1:57 to go.

Then in overtime Purdy completed 4-of-6 tosses for 50 yards while getting the 49ers into field goal range again to take a 22-19 lead that would ultimately not hold up to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

So there are two sides to this coin.

There’s the short-term response that Purdy wasn’t good enough to make the plays to keep up with Mahomes. The 49ers needed touchdowns and they got field goals. They needed to not get shut out in the third quarter and they needed more from their QB to get do that. That’s all true and anyone who wants to lay some blame on Purdy for that is justified in doing so.

But then there’s the long-term view where Purdy, in his first year as a full-time starter and second year as an NFL QB, coming off of major elbow surgery that cost him his entire offseason, went 9-of-13 for 107 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and overtime of his first Super Bowl. That gives plenty of optimism that there’s more growth ahead for the 49ers’ QB.

Since Purdy was the final pick in the 2022 draft and has defied all logic since he became San Francisco’s starter in Week 13 last season, there’s been some people waiting for the other shoe to drop. There’s been a wait for him to slip up and be exposed as a bad quarterback winning via smoke and mirrors.

That wasn’t the case in the biggest game of his life. He had one rough quarter and figured out a way to move the ball in the game’s highest-pressure moments. He wasn’t perfect. Surely there are plays and throws he wants back. But there were plenty of signs Sunday to suggest that there’s more growth ahead for Purdy and that this Super Bowl trip wasn’t the result of some magic spell that let an inept QB participate on  the NFL’s biggest stage.

Perhaps that growth never comes and the 49ers in a couple years find themselves in the hunt for a QB once again. That will all play out in time though. Right now, immediately following Super Bowl LVIII, it appears the 49ers have a long-term answer at quarterback.

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Why 49ers players not knowing playoff OT rules does and doesn’t matter

49ers players didn’t know the new playoff OT rules. Here’s why that does and doesn’t matter:

Super Bowl LVIII was a rarity, becoming only the second Super Bowl to ever go to overtime. It was also the first playoff game to go to OT since the NFL altered the rules for the extra time. Both teams under the new rules get a possession regardless of how the first possession goes. The stadium scoreboard explained the new rules for the fans, but it turns out the 49ers players needed the explainer too.

While the lack of knowledge of the OT rules is certainly a preparatory oversight, it didn’t ultimately affect the outcome of Sunday’s game.

Defensive lineman Arik Armstead after the game told reporters he was unaware of the new rules.

“I didn’t even know about the new playoff overtime rule, so it was a surprise to me,” Armstead said via ESPN. “I didn’t even really know what was going on in terms of that.”

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk was also unaware.

“You know what? I didn’t even realize the playoff rules were different in overtime,” Juszczyk said. “I assume you just want the ball to score a touchdown and win.”

There’s an obvious, glaring problem with this.

The NFL changed its rules for the most important games of the year and the 49ers as an organization didn’t take the time to go over it with its players. They didn’t discuss the strategy or ensure the players knew what was at stake with each OT possession.

That is not good and displays a lack of attention to detail that may serve as at least a partial explanation for head coach Kyle Shanahan’s continued shortcomings in the postseason, particularly when juxtaposed against what Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said about his team’s preparation for the rules.

“We’ve talked about it all year,” Reid said. “We talked about it in training camp about how the rules were different in regular season versus the playoffs. Every week of the playoffs we talked about the overtime rule.”

However, lack of awareness of the rule isn’t the reason the 49ers came up short in Sunday’s OT loss. They got the ball first and tried going down to score a touchdown. They came up short and settled for a field goal. Then they needed a stop and didn’t get one. It’s pretty cut and dry.

It would be a different story had Shanahan not known the rules. Had he taken the ball first because he thought he could win the game with a TD, there would be a major problem for San Francisco.

After the game Shanahan explained though that the club deemed it prudent to receive in OT in the event there was a third possession. That would set the 49ers up to win with a field goal.

The strategy for that can be debated, but there’s ultimately no good answer. In overtime, no matter what the rules were, the team needed a score and a stop. Even under the most recent old OT rules their field goal on the first possession wouldn’t have been enough to win it and they’d still have needed to keep the Chiefs out of the end zone.

Moving forward the 49ers should probably dedicate at least a little bit of offseason time to ensuring players know the rule changes. The players not knowing the playoff OT rules isn’t great from a big picture standpoint, but it’s hardly the reason they fell short in OT against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

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The good and bad from the 49ers’ Super Bowl loss in OT against the Chiefs

Looking back at the good and the bad from the 49ers’ heartbreaking overtime loss in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs.

After kicking a field goal in overtime, the San Francisco 49ers had to kick the ball back to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs with a chance to win the game with a touchdown.

Just 13 plays later, including a fourth down conversion run from Mahomes, the Chiefs future Hall of Fame quarterback fired a game-winning touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman to steal the Super Bowl from the 49ers in overtime, 25-22.

With the 49ers season now officially over, let’s look back at all the good and the bad from their 25-22 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas.

This post originally appeared on Warriors Wire! Follow us on Facebook and Twitter

4 Steelers takeaways from the Super Bowl

There was plenty for the Steelers to learn from the Chiefs and Niners in the Super Bowl.

For most people, the Super Bowl was just a highly entertaining football game, the crowning of an NFL champion and the end of the regular season. But since we are obsessed with football and the Pittsburgh Steelers, we had to look at it in terms of what can we learn from watching the two best teams in the NFL play in the Super Bowl and how can it apply to the Steelers. Here are our four takeaways.