One of the oldest clubs in the country will play host to the 122nd U.S. Open this week, as The Country Club in Brookline, Mass., will put the top players in the world to the test for 4 days. Jon Rahm is back to defend the title he won last year at Torrey Pines, while Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas will look to win their second major of the season. Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 U.S. Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Thomas, Rahm and Scheffler come in as the top 3 players in Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, in that order, with Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland completing the top 5. Tiger Woods isn’t in the field.
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U.S. Open – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:13 p.m. ET.
Rory McIlroy (+260)
McIlroy is the favorite this week (+1000) after winning the RBC Canadian Open last weekend, and it’s hard not to like his odds in Brookline. He dialed in his wedges, is driving the ball beautifully and though he missed a few short putts last week, he’s rolling it nicely on the greens. He should be near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Xander Schauffele (+450)
Schauffele has started his career with 5 straight top-10 finishes in the U.S. Open. I’m betting he’ll keep that streak alive this week, despite being somewhat underrated as a contender. He doesn’t win very often, but he’s regularly in contention, and he hasn’t finished worse than T-18 in any of his last 4 starts – including a T-13 at the PGA Championship.
Shane Lowry (+650)
Lowry has made the cut in 9 straight starts, but what’s more impressive is that he has 7 top-13 finishes in that span. A pure ball-striker and good putter, Lowry fits nicely at The Country Club, so long as he can avoid bogeys when missing greens. At +650, he’s a great value to pull off another near-win in a major.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1200)
- Will Zalatoris (+650)
- Justin Thomas (+300)
U.S. Open – Top-10 picks
Jordan Spieth (+260)
Once again, this week will come down to Spieth’s putter. It has been a weakness of his game all year and it’s the reason he doesn’t have more than 1 win. His iron play and short game around the greens give him an edge this week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+280)
When Fitzpatrick makes the cut, he puts himself in contention to win. Since the Hero World Challenge in December, he’s finished inside the top-18 in all 10 events where he made the cut. He has missed the cut 3 times in that span, including at the Memorial Tournament, but he should be a popular pick this week, having won the U.S. Amateur at The Country Club in 2013.
Max Homa (+380)
Homa already has 2 wins and 4 top-10 finishes this season and has made the cut in 10 straight starts. His track record in majors is poor, but he finally broke through with a great showing at the PGA with a T-13 at Southern Hills. He does everything well, though he’s not the best scrambler (104th in SG: around the green).
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
U.S. Open – Top-20 picks
Tommy Fleetwood (+220)
Fleetwood’s name hasn’t been near the top of the leaderboard many times this season, with just 3 top-10s, but he tied for 5th at the PGA Championship on a tough course. He’s a great iron player and his lack of length off the tee won’t put him at a disadvantage on a course that isn’t stretched out like some other U.S. Open tracks. He has 2 top-5s in this championship.
Patrick Reed (+320)
Since 2018, Reed hasn’t finished worse than T-32 in the U.S. Open, and he has 4 top-20s in that span. He has one of the best short games in the world, which will be an asset around the tiny greens at The Country Club. I don’t expect him to win, but I like his chances to finish in the top 20.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Sungjae Im (+155)
- Tony Finau (+135)
U.S. Open – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Collin Morikawa (-120) vs. Viktor Hovland (+100)
Once again, we get this fun matchup between 2 outstanding ball-strikers – and 2 not-so-great chippers. I like Morikawa a little bit more this week in Brookline with his accuracy off the tee and, obviously, his irons.
Xander Schauffele (-110) vs. Cameron Smith (-110)
Smith has only truly contended in the U.S. Open once in his career when he tied for 4th in 2015. That’s probably not a coincidence because this tournament requires discipline. Schauffele can plot his way around a course better than Smith, who can get a little bit too aggressive, which doesn’t bode well this week.
Jordan Spieth (-110) vs. Patrick Cantlay (-110)
Admittedly, I like both players this week. But Spieth is one of my favorites to make a legitimate run at winning. Cantlay could wind up in the top 20, as he often does when he tees it up, but Spieth has much higher upside.
U.S. Open – Top Japanese
Hideki Matsuyama (-140)
Matsuyama is far and away the best Japanese player in the field, with Rikuya Hoshino being the next-closest guy at +350. Matsuyama was DQed last week due to an equipment rule, but he’s been playing really well this season.
U.S. Open – Top South American
Joaquin Niemann (+110)
Niemann has a slight edge over Mito Pereira (+190), who has really taken his game to new heights this season. But don’t overlook Niemann, who tied for 3rd at the Memorial and won the Genesis Invitational earlier this year.
U.S. Open – First-round leader
Rory McIlroy (+2000)
Can McIlroy ride the wave of momentum he enters with after winning the RBC Canadian Open? It seems like the perfect time for him to come out with a low first-round score, a rarity for him in the majors.
Cameron Smith (+3000)
I know I picked Schauffele over Smith in my matchups section, but that’s over four rounds. I could see Smith getting on a roll Thursday when the conditions might not be as difficult as they are on Sunday, taking an early lead before fading down the stretch.
More expert prop bet predictions
Top former winner: Rory McIlroy (+210)
Can you tell I like Rory this week? This is a particularly enticing bet because Jon Rahm (+300) and Spieth (+550) are his top competitors. I don’t expect Dustin Johnson to have a great week, Justin Rose might put together a couple of good rounds, and Brooks Koepka has barely played – and just got married. Webb Simpson, Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland and Jim Furyk are the other options, but McIlroy clearly has a big edge over them.
Winning margin: 2 shots (+380)
The U.S. Open doesn’t always yield a close, nail-biting finish. DeChambeau blew away the field in 2020, Woodland won by 3 in 2019, Koepka won by 4 in 2017 and DJ was 3 clear of everyone in 2016. I like a 2-shot win Sunday by someone.
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