2024 Valspar Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2024 Valspar Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

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The last leg of the Florida swing, the 2024 Valspar Championship, takes place this week at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Fla. It’s not a signature event like the last 2 tournaments were, both won by Scottie Scheffler, but it still features a strong field led by Xander Schauffele.

Below, we look at the 2024 Valspar Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Schauffele is the betting favorite at Innisbrook, coming in with very short odds of +750. Sam Burns, a 2-time champion of this event, is 2nd with odds of +1100, followed by Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas at +1400. Defending champion Taylor Moore is +6000 to win in back-to-back years.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is 7,340 yards (par 71) and has yielded a winning score between 7-under and 17-under each year since 2010. The finish at Innisbrook is far from easy, with the final 3 holes being dubbed the “Snake Pit.” It’s a pair of par 4s (16 and 18), with a 200-plus-yard par 3 (17) in the middle, yielding a scoring average over par each year in that 3-hole stretch.

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Valspar Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:12 p.m. ET.

Sungjae Im (+2200)

Im hit a rough patch this season where he didn’t finish better than 44th in 5 straight events, but he seems to have found something in the last 2 weeks. He finished 18th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T-31 at the Players Championship, and he comes to Innisbrook where he’s come in 4th and 29th in 2 career starts.

Nick Taylor (+3300)

Taylor just missed out on a top-25 finish at the Players due to a 3rd-round 76, coming in 26th after shooting 66 and 68 in the 1st 2 rounds. He has 3 top-25s and a win already this season, including a T-12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Taylor finished 10th here last year.

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Valspar Championship picks – Contenders

Doug Ghim (+4500)

It’s been 2 months since Ghim finished outside the top 20. That’s hard to believe, but it’s true. He’s finished between 8th and 16th in each of his last 5 starts and now ranks 4th in total strokes gained this season. At +4500, he’s a bargain.

Keith Mitchell (+4000)

Mitchell has only played here twice and he made the cut both times, finishing 11th back in 2017. He’s 7-for-8 in cuts made this season and has finished in the top 25 four times already, ranking 33rd in total strokes gained – a very respectable number for Cashmere Keith.

Valspar Championship picks – Long shots

K.H. Lee (+12500)

Lee finished 21st here in 2021 and 19th last year, which are the only 2 official starts he’s made in this event (WD in 2020). He’s been hot and cold this season, finishing in the top 30 three times and missing the cut in his 4 other starts, but that’s the type of player you want to target as a long shot.

Matt NeSmith (+12500)

NeSmith has only played this event twice but his record is good. He came in 21st in 2021 and 3rd in 2022 before skipping it last year. He may have found his game at the Players, where he finished T-26 on Sunday, so he could head into Innisbrook with some momentum.

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2024 Players Championship final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2024 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

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Three rounds are in the book at the 2024 Players Championship and just 6 golfers are within 5 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2024 Players Championship odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Xander Schauffele, who opened at +2000 to win, is at 17-under-par 199 and will take a 1-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at TPC Sawgrass (7,257 yards, par 72). Schauffele is the No. 2 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings.

Pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler (+550 to start the week) is tied for 6th place at 12-under after rounds of 67-69-68. Scheffler is the defending champion, winning at 17-under 271 last year. He’s +1100 to rally from 5 strokes back to repeat.

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2024 Players Championship – Final pairing

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:41 p.m. ET.

Xander Schauffele (+120)

The 30-year-old pro shot a 7-under 65 to go with a 65-69 and takes a 1-stroke lead in his bid for his 8th career title. Schauffele, who has 17 birdies, 1 eagle and 1 bogey in 3 rounds, has 4 top-10 finishes this season.

Wyndham Clark (+275)

The 30-year-old pro, who opened at +3300 to win, shot a 2-under 70 after a pair of 65s and starts 1 shot back in his bid for his 3rd PGA title and 2nd this season (he won at Pebble Beach). He’ s the No. 9 player in Golfweek’s rankings.

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2024 Players Championship – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:40 p.m. ET, here are 3 other players to watch (1-6 p.m. ET, NBC) as they try to chase down the leader.

Brian Harman (+550): Golfweek’s No. 22 player starts in 3rd place, 2 shots back at 15-under after rounds of 72-65-64. He opened at +6600.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400): He starts tied for 4th place, 4 shots back at 13-under after rounds of 66-69-68. Golfweek’s No. 34 opened at +6000.

Maverick McNealy (+2800): He is also tied for 4th place, 4 shots back at 13-under after rounds of 67-68-68. Golfweek’s No. 113 player opened at +20000.

2024 Players Championship – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Shane Lowry (+650 to make top 5): Starts final round tied for 51st place at 3-under with rounds of 71-70-72.

Max Homa (+250 to make top 10): Starts final round tied for 68th place at 1-over with rounds of 68-75-74.

Brian Harman (+240 to make top 20): Start figuring how to spend your winnings (if you bet it) as he starts the final round in 3rd place.

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DraftKings North Carolina Promo Code – Get $250 in Bonus Bets Instantly With Launch Day Special

Use the DraftKings North Carolina promo code to get $250 in bonus bets instantly as online sports betting is live now! Bet on ACC Tournament, UNC and Duke odds.

We may earn a fee if you make a purchase through one of the links in this article. The USA Today Network newsroom and editorial staff were not involved in the creation of this content.

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2024 Players Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2024 Players Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

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The PGA Tour heads home to Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., this week for an event that’s considered the 5th major: The 2024 Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. The next signature event on the schedule features all of the tour’s top players – including 2023 champion Scottie Scheffler, who’s coming off a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Sunday. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning.

Below, we look at the 2024 Players Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scheffler is the odds-on favorite to win again this week, coming in at +550. The next-closest player is Rory McIlroy, who won here in 2019, with odds of +1400. Everyone else in the field is at least +2000 to win the Players this week. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris are among the other top contenders at Sawgrass.

TPC Sawgrass tests every aspect of a player’s game, though it’s very much about precision and accuracy off the tee because there are so many difficult approaches into greens due to the winding layout of the holes. It’s a par 72 and will play at 7,275 yards, with narrow fairways and par 5s that offer great eagle and birdie opportunities. The winning score since has been between -10 and -18, with Scheffler winning at 17-under.

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Players Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Will Zalatoris (+2500)

Zalatoris is all the way back. He’s left little doubt about that in his last 2 starts, finishing 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational – both signature events, too. He finished 73rd here last year after finishing 26th and 21st in his previous 2 starts at Sawgrass. With his ball striking, and his improved accuracy off the tee, he’s a legit threat to win this week.

Justin Thomas (+2200)

Simply making the cut year after year at TPC Sawgrass is difficult, but Thomas has made it look easy. He’s never missed the cut in 9 starts at the Players Championship, winning it in 2021. His last 2 starts here have been underwhelming (33rd, 60th), but he finished 11th in 2018 and 13th in 2016. Thomas seems to have fully turned the corner after a poor 2023 season and has gotten off to a great start this season.

Max Homa (+2800)

Homa has only played this event 3 times, all since 2021, but he’s gotten better each year. After missing the cut in 2021, he finished 13th in 2022 and then 6th last year. Even after shooting 1-over on Sunday at Bay Hill, he finished T-8, continuing what’s been a solid start to the year.

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Players Championship picks – Contenders

Russell Henley (+4500)

Henley weathered the tough conditions well at Bay Hill last week, finishing T-4. It was his 2nd top-5 finish this season and he now heads to Sawgrass where he’s finished in the top 25 four times in 11 tries. In the last 2 years, he’s come in 13th and 19th. His accuracy off the tee fits this course extremely well, requiring players to be in proper position in the fairways in order to have clear angles to the greens.

Corey Conners (+5500)

Conners hasn’t had any impressively high finishes yet this season, but he’s also only come in outside the top 33 once all year, with 2 top 25s in 7 starts. In 4 trips to TPC Sawgrass (excluding 2020 when it was canceled), Conners has finished in the top 25 once, which was a solo 7th in 2021. He also tied for 26th in 2022. This is a ball-striker’s course and Conners is one of the best on tour.

Brian Harman (+6600)

Harman was in the lead at a few different moments at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but a 3rd-round 77 doomed him. Still, he finished T-12 and continued his made-cuts streak, playing the weekend in all of his 6 starts this season. He knows how to handle windy conditions and has made the cut 9 of 12 times at TPC Sawgrass, including each of the last 4 years when there’s been increased volatility and unpredictability.

Players Championship picks – Long shots

Adam Hadwin (+9000)

Hadwin already has 3 top 25s and 2 top 10s this season, but he’s also missed 2 cuts. That shouldn’t scare anyone off from betting him at this number, though. He’s finished T-29, T-9 and T-13 in his last 3 starts at TPC Sawgrass, so his course history is good.

Erik van Rooyen (+10000)

van Rooyen is quietly having a very impressive season, posting 6 top-25s in 8 starts thus far, including a T-8 in Mexico and T-2 at the Cognizant Classic. Even in a loaded field last week, he finished T-25, never shooting more than 1-over par in 4 rounds. In his Players Championship debut last year, he finished T-13. At +10000, he’s an enticing long shot to consider.

Matthieu Pavon (+12500)

Pavon has made the cut in all 6 starts this season, winning the Farmers Insurance Open, finishing 3rd at Pebble Beach and T-7 at the Sony Open. A player with the season he’s having should not be +12500 to win at Sawgrass, even if he’s never played the Players before.

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DraftKings North Carolina Promo Code – $250 in Bonus Bets Instantly With Sign-Up Today

DraftKings North Carolina promo code delivers a Bet $5, Get $250 in bonus bets instantly offer now that DraftKings NC is live. Bet on the ACC Tournament & more!

We may earn a fee if you make a purchase through one of the links in this article. The USA Today Network newsroom and editorial staff were not involved in the creation of this content.

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North Carolina sports betting is now live and legal, which makes it the ideal time to grab the DraftKings North Carolina promo code welcome offer on this page and lock in $250 in bonus bets instantly with any $5 or more first wager.

This perfect timing considering that the ACC men’s basketball tournament tips off on Tuesday. This is the first time that people in the state of North Carolina can legally bet on this tournament online, and many of those bettors will be wagering on Duke or North Carolina, who are two of the favorites to win. Or you can use the offer to wager on Wake Forest, NC State or any other game you like!

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Make ACC Tournament Bets Instantly With DraftKings North Carolina Promo Code

📱 DraftKings North Carolina Promo Code  CLICK HERE
🤑 DraftKings North Carolina Promo Bet $5, Get $250 in Bonus Bets Instantly (ten $25 bet credits)
Terms & Conditions New customers 21+ and located in NC. Bonus bets expire after 7 days; 1X playthrough
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You are only minutes away from being able to make ACC Tournament bets with the DraftKings North Carolina promo code. All you need to do is complete the following steps and you will be wagering on one the top North Carolina betting apps.

  1. Click a BET NOW button in this review to access a DraftKings North Carolina sign-up page.
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Now let’s take a moment to go over how the bonus bets from the DraftKings North Carolina promo code are delivered.

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Get $250 in Bonus Bets With DraftKings North Carolina Promo Code

You can bet on the ACC Tournament in many ways, but once you have created a new account with the DraftKings North Carolina promo code, just pick one of those wagers and place a real money bet of $5 or more on it.

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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club in Orlando, Fla.

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Three rounds are in the book at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational and 13 golfers are within 5 strokes of the leaders. Below, we look at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Orlando. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Scottie Scheffler and Shane Lowry are tied at 9-under-par 207 and will take a 1-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at Bay Hill Club & Lodge (7,466 yards, par 72). Scheffler is the No. 1 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings while Lowry is No. 29.

Defending champion Kurt Kitayama, who won at 9-under 279, missed the cut after rounds of 78 and 73.

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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Final pairing

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:47 a.m. ET.

Scottie Scheffler (+150)

The pre-tournament favorite, who opened at +650, has rounds of 70-67-70.  The 27-year-old pro has 4 top-10 finishes this season and will try for his 7th career title and 1st since winning the 2023 Players Championship.

Shane Lowry (+400)

The 36-year-old Irishman, who opened at +5000 to win, shot a 2-under 70 to go with a 66-71 and will try for his 3rd career tour title and his 1st since winning The Open Championship in 2019. He finished tied for 4th last week at PGA National.

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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:35 p.m. ET (12:30-2:30 p.m. ET Golf Channel; 2:30-6 p.m. ET NBC), here are 3 players to watch as they try to chase down the leaders.

Wyndham Clark (+650): Golfweek’s No. 11 player starts in 3rd place, 1 shot back at 8-under after rounds of 71-66-71. He opened at +5000.

Will Zalatoris (+1000): He starts tied for 4th place, 2 shots back at 7-under after rounds of 69-69-71. Zalatoris, who opened at +2500, hasn’t played the minimum number of events to qualify for the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings this season.

Russell Henley (+1600): Golfweek’s No. 8 player also starts tied for 4th after rounds of 68-69-72. He opened at +6000.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 3 of them.

Rory McIlroy (+200 to make top 5): Starts final round tied for 8th place at 5-under with rounds of 73-70-68.

Cameron Young (+220 to make top 10): Starts final round tied for 20th place, 2-under with rounds of 73-70-71.

Sungjae Im (+160 to make top 20): Starts final round tied for 11th place at 4-under with rounds of 71-70-71.

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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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Bay Hill Club and Lodge will once again play host to the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, a Signature Event on the PGA Tour schedule. The 1st round from Orlando, Fla., begins on Thursday morning.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler is the highest-ranked player in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, also coming in as the betting favorite (+650) to win at Bay Hill. Nine of the top 10 players in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings are in the field, with the only exception being Jon Rahm, who now plays on LIV. Last year’s champion, Kurt Kitayama, is ranked 111th.

Bay Hill is a par 72 and plays at 7,466 yards. It plays much longer than the listed yardage because water comes into play on several holes, with forced layups to take away the advantages of being a longer hitter. As one of the tougher non-major courses on tour, the winning score has been between 4-under and 12-under par in the last 5 years.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:10 p.m. ET.

Rory McIlroy (+200)

It’s easy to fade McIlroy after seeing the way he hit his wedges last week at PGA National, but Bay Hill fits him perfectly. There will be an abundance of long-iron shots and his prowess off the tee makes him a good fit. I’m just not sure he’s got everything firing well enough to win right now, so take him for a top-5.

Viktor Hovland (+275)

Hovland has finished 10th and 2nd in his last 2 starts here, proving to be a great fit for Bay Hill with his elite ball striking. He’s skipped the last 2 tournaments and should be well-rested for this event.

Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-10 picks

Cameron Young (+220)

Young is trending up after notching 2 top-10 finishes in his last 3 starts. He also has some strong course history here, finishing 10th and 13th in his 2 career starts. Don’t be the least bit surprised if he wins this week, though much of that depends on his putter cooperating.

Ludvig Aberg (+160)

Bay Hill favors elite ball strikers, which Aberg certainly is. He’s excellent from 200 yards out, ranking 29th on tour from that distance and he leads in proximity from 150-175 yards. In his debut as an amateur last year, he finished 24th and gained 1.11 strokes on the field.

Jordan Spieth (+160)

Spieth was disqualified in his last start at the Genesis Invitational, but he was playing well prior to that fluky incident. He’s finished 4th in each of his last 2 starts here and finished 6th at the WM Phoenix Open, his last full start of the season.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Max Homa (+188)

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Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top-20 picks

Matt Fitzpatrick (+100)

In 8 starts here, Fitzpatrick has finished 15th or better 6 times and has 4 top-10s. He’s made the cut in 7 of 8 tries and has become a horse for Bay Hill over his career. Despite his underwhelming finishes this season, he’s a good pick this week.

Sungjae Im (+160)

Im has not played well lately, finishing 44th or worse in each of his last 5 starts. Bay Hill could be the venue that gets him headed in the right direction again, though. He’s never finished worse than 21st in 5 career starts here and has two 3rd-place finishes to go with it.

Keegan Bradley (+140)

Bradley never misses this event and in the last 3 years, he’s played particularly well here. He’s finished 10th, 11th and 10th in those 3 starts, so he feels like a very good value at +140 in a field that features just 70 players.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+220)
  • Corey Conners (+140)

Arnold Palmer Invitational – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Jason Day (+105) vs. Tommy Fleetwood (-135)

Fleetwood is playing well right now, but he shouldn’t be this heavily favored over Day, who has finished in the top 10 in each of his last 2 starts this season and came in 10th last year. Take the underdog at plus money.

Viktor Hovland (-110) vs. Xander Schauffele (-110)

Hovland has a better track record at this event than Schauffele, who has only played twice in the last 4 years and finished outside the top 20 both times.

Arnold Palmer Invitational – Top Australian

Jason Day (+188)

Adam Scott (+225), Min Woo Lee (+225) and Cam Davis (+500) are the only other Australians in the field, but Day is the best value of the bunch at +188. He’s got the best track record here and is playing well at the moment, coming off back-to-back top-10s.

Arnold Palmer Invitational – First-round leader

Cameron Young (+2800)

Young has a good chance to carry over the momentum built at PGA National to Bay Hill. Last year, he shot 67 in the opening round and was tied for 2nd. In 2022, he shot a respectable opening-round 70, too.

Keegan Bradley (+5000)

Bradley has opened with a 69 or better in 3 of his last 5 starts here, including a 68 to put him just 3 shots off the lead last year. In 2019, he was tied for 2nd after shooting 67.

More expert prop bet predictions

Will there be a hole in one? No (-160)

Bay Hill features some of the toughest par 3s on tour. All of them are at least 199 yards long, with 3 of them being at least 215 yards. Pair that with a limited field and there will be fewer opportunities for aces. It’s not fun, but “no” is the better side.

Winning margin: 1 shot (+225)

In each of the last 4 years, the winning margin has been exactly 1 shot. And in 2019, it was 2 strokes, which is still a close finish. Bet this trend to continue at +225.

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2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

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After a Monday finish at the Cognizant Classic, it’ll be a quick turnaround for players also teeing it up in the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, the 1st of 2 consecutive Signature Events on the PGA Tour calendar. One of the premier tournaments on the schedule, the Arnold Palmer Invitational returns to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Fla., for another star-studded week.

Below, we look at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

The best players in the sport will take on Bay Hill this week, including World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and 2018 champion Rory McIlroy. Scheffler is the betting favorite at +650, followed by McIlroy (+1000). Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele are all tied for the 3rd-best odds at +1400. The defending champion, Kurt Kitayama, is +6600 to win this week and go back-to-back.

Bay Hill is a par 72 and plays at 7,466 yards, always ranking as one of the most difficult courses on tour. In the last 4 years, the winning score has only been better than 9-under par once, which was when Bryson DeChambeau won at 11-under par in 2021.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 7:12 p.m. ET.

Cameron Young (+2800)

Young seems to be on the verge of his 1st PGA Tour victory, finishing T-3 at the Cognizant Classic on Monday. It was his 2nd top-10 in his last 3 starts, finishing T-16 or better in all 3 of his last 3 tournaments. He’s only played this tournament twice but he finished 13th and 10th in the last 2 years. A terrific ball-striker, Young is a perfect fit for this course.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800)

Fitzpatrick started the Cognizant Classic with a double-bogey on his 2nd hole but followed it up with an eagle on the 3rd. He finished T-21 thanks to a strong putting week, and he still ranked 43rd in SG: approach. Fitz has played this event every year since 2016 and has missed the cut only once, finishing 27th or better in the other 7 years with 4 top-10s and 6 top-15s.

Jordan Spieth (+1800)

The last time we saw Spieth, he was disqualified from the Genesis Invitational for signing for the wrong score. He was playing well at the time and already has 2 top-6 finishes this season. In his 2 starts at this event, he finished 4th each time (2021 and 2023), so he’s navigated Bay Hill well in recent years.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational picks – Contenders

Corey Conners (+6600)

Bay Hill is a ball-striker’s course, and that’s exactly what Conners is. Though he hasn’t cracked the top 20 yet this season, he ranks 22nd on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Now is the time to buy Conners, who has finished 21st, 11th and 3rd in his past 3 starts at the API.

Keegan Bradley (+5500)

Bradley must love this event because he’s played it 12 times since 2011, making the cut 11 times with 4 top-10s and 5 top-25s. In the last 3 years, he’s finished T-10, T-11 and T-10, so he seems to have figured out the secret to Bay Hill. Before missing the cut at Riviera, he finished 11th at Pebble Beach and lost in a playoff at the Sony Open.

Sungjae Im (+6600)

It’s shocking to see Im’s odds this long, especially at an event he frequently plays. Since 2019, these are his finishes at Bay Hill: 3rd, 3rd, 21st, 20th and 21st. He missed the cut at PGA National last week and hasn’t finished better than T-44 since the American Express, which is the reason for his long odds, but he’s a horse for this course and could get back on track here.

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks – Long shots

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+8000)

Bezuidenhout should’ve made the cut at the Cognizant Classic, but he finished 5-over in his last 7 holes to miss it by 1 shot. Heartbreaking. He’s playing better than these odds indicate and would have shorter odds if not for that back-9 collapse on Friday. He missed the cut here last year, but finished 20th, 7th and 18th in the previously 3 years.

Brian Harman (+10000)

While Bay Hill is nothing like a links course, it could feature similar wind to what players deal with in The Open. He missed the cut in the last 3 years but he also finished inside the top 20 here 3 times in the past.

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2024 Cognizant Classic final-round odds, golfers to watch

Analyzing the golf odds entering the final round to win the 2024 Cognizant Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla..

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Three rounds are in the book at the 2024 Cognizant Classic and 22 golfers are within 5 strokes of the lead. Below, we look at the 2024 Cognizant Classic odds entering Sunday’s final round being played in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. Check back throughout the season for our PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Shane Lowry, David Skinns and Austin Eckroat are tied at 13-under-par 200 and will take a 3-stroke lead into Sunday’s final round at PGA National (7,147 yards, par 71). Lowry is the top-ranked player among the leaders in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings at No. 41.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy (who opened at +750) is tied for 26th place at 7-under after rounds of 67-67-72. He’s at +4000 to rally from 6 strokes back. Defending champion Chris Kirk, who won at 14-under 266, is tied for 55th place at 3-under after shooting 67-70-73. He opened at +4000 to win.

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2024 Cognizant Classic – The leaders

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:09 a.m. ET.

Shane Lowry (+175)

The 36-year-old Irishman, who opened at +3300 to win, shot a 5-under 66 to go with a pair of 67s and will try for his 2nd career tour title. The No. 41 player in Golfweek’s rankings won The Open in 2019.

David Skinns (+800)

The 42-year-old Englishman, who opened at +60000 to win, shot a 5-under 66 to go with a 65-69 and will try for his 1st career title in his 33rd tour event. He’s the No. 391 player in Golfweek’s rankings.

Austin Eckroat (+350)

Golfweek’s No. 120 player starts tied for the lead at 13-under after rounds of 65-67-68. The 25-year-old pro from Oklahoma, who opened at +10000, is seeking his 1st title in his 50th tour start.

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2024 Cognizant Classic – In the hunt

Before the final group tees off at 1:40 p.m. ET (1-3 p.m. ET Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m. ET NBC), here are 3 other players to watch as they try to chase down the leader.

Min Woo Lee (+1200): He starts tied for 4th place, 3 shots back at 10-under 203 after rounds of 67-70-66. Golfweek’s No. 27 opened at +3500.

Jacob Bridgeman (+3300): Golfweek’s No. 101 starts tied for 4th at 10-under after rounds of 70-68-65. He opened at +25000.

Martin Laird (+3500): He starts tied for 4th at 10-under after rounds of 68-69-66. Golfweek’s No. 321 opened at +40000.

2024 Cognizant Classic – Props update

Before the tournament started, we mentioned a few prop bets worth considering a play on. Let’s take a look at 2 of them.

Tom Kim (+350 to make top 5): Starts final round tied for 26th place at 7-under with rounds of 68-68-70.

Shane Lowry (+333 to make top 10): Start figuring out what to do with the winnings — if you bet it.

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2024 Cognizant Classic prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 Cognizant Classic with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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The 2024 Cognizant Classic kicks off on Thursday morning from PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. It’s the 1st event of the Florida swing, with 2 signature events, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship, coming up in March.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2024 Cognizant Classic odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rory McIlroy comes into the week as the favorite (+750) to win the Cognizant Classic and the highest-ranked golfer in the field, according to the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. He is No. 5 in the rankings, with Russell Henley being the next-closest player in the field at No. 8. Cameron Young, who’s still searching for his 1st career victory, has the 2nd-best odds this week (+2200).

The Champion Course at PGA National will play as a par 71 this week. The 10th hole has been converted into a 530-yard par 5, making the course play at a total of 7,147 yards. Water hazards are in play on every hole, particularly in the Bear Trap from No. 15-17, a brutal stretch toward the end of the round that can make or break a player’s tournament.

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Cognizant Classic – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:02 p.m. ET.

Eric Cole (+500)

Cole made his debut at this tournament last year and strolled to a 2nd-place finish, losing in a playoff to Chris Kirk. Going back-to-back with top-5 finishes is difficult in this tournament, but Cole finished 10th in his last start and has 3 top-21 finishes this season already.

Tom Kim (+550)

Kim has never played this tournament, but he’s playing well enough right now to contend despite his lack of experience at PGA National. He’s finished 31st or better in each of his last 3 starts this season and should be in contention this weekend.

Cognizant Classic – Top-10 picks

Russell Henley (+250)

Henley has finished 20th, 8th and 3rd in his last 3 starts at PGA National, showing he knows how to navigate this difficult venue. He’s one of the most accurate drivers on tour, which helps him avoid trouble, which lurks around every corner at PGA National.

Shane Lowry (+333)

Lowry finished 2nd to Sepp Straka in 2022 and he followed that up with a 5th-place finish here last year. It hasn’t been a banner start to the year for the Irishman with just 1 finish better than T-60, but he often plays well here and this could be the event that gets him going in the right direction.

Daniel Berger (+350)

Berger had a lengthy absence due to a back injury, but he’s been working his way into form, finishing 28th at the WM Phoenix Open. He’s finished 4th here in each of his last 2 starts (2020, 2022) so he’s worth backing for another top 10 this week.

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Cognizant Classic – Top-20 picks

Sepp Straka (+180)

Straka was the 2022 champion and finished 5th in 2023, his 4th straight top-35 in this event. After finishing T-26 at Pebble Beach, he missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational, but this is a good bounce-back spot for the big Austrian.

Stephan Jaeger (+180)

Jaeger is fresh off a 3rd-place finish in Mexico and comes to a tournament where he’s made the cut in each of his last 3 tries – including a T-14 last year, his best finish in this event.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Carson Young (+375)
  • Gary Woodland (+350)
  • Beau Hossler (+200)

Cognizant Classic – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Russell Henley (-105) vs. Cameron Young (-120)

Henley’s track record in this event is well-documented, while Young has only played it once (T-16 in 2022). Both are trending in the right direction, but I’ll take Henley, who shouldn’t be an underdog in this matchup.

Daniel Berger (-110) vs. Matthieu Pavon (-110)

Pavon is red hot right now, but he could cool off at a tournament he’s never played in before. Berger, on the other hand, has finished 4th in each of his last 2 PGA National appearances.

Cognizant Classic – Top Irish

Shane Lowry (+250)

With this bet, we’re fading McIlroy, who hasn’t played here since 2018 and has finished 59th and missed the cut in his last 2 PGA National appearances. He struggled a bit at the Genesis Invitational after an even worse showing at Pebble Beach, so he’s not exactly in great form.

Cognizant Classic – Top South African

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+110)

Erik van Rooyen (+138) and Garrick Higgo (+450) are the only other South Africans in the field, so this is essentially a 3-ball bet. Bezuidenhout has finished 42nd and 25th in his last 2 starts at PGA National, while van Rooyen has missed the cut twice and finished 60th in his last 3 starts here. Higgo simply hasn’t been in great form this season.

Cognizant Classic – First-round leader

Daniel Berger (+5000)

Berger was 1 shot off the lead on Thursday in 2022 when he shot 65 and also posted a 69 in Round 1 in 2020 when he went on to finish 4th. He could come out hot this week playing close to home.

Cameron Young (+3300)

Young’s putter is tough to trust right now as he ranks 104th in SG: putting, but this is a ball-striker’s course, which could open the door for Young to go low in Round 1 and claim the first-round lead.

Cognizant Classic – To make the cut

Jaeger, Straka and Mitchell: Yes (+188)

With how volatile this event is, betting anyone to make the cut can be risky. However, Jaeger, Straka and Keith Mitchell all either have good recent form or a solid track record at PGA National.

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