Buckeyes on the Bubble: What does Ohio State Women’s Basketball need to make the NCAA tournament?

Ohio State’s women’s basketball team is certainly on the bubble. What do the Buckeyes need to do to make the NCAA tournament?

I started this series this week with the Ohio State Men’s Basketball team’s bubble situation. And I kept that article very brief, mostly to avoid giving off the false impression that Ohio State was anywhere near the bubble. The Buckeyes aren’t. They have elite metrics like KenPom and BPI and a strong overall resume. The only minor downside is a poor conference record. Barring a collapse, Ohio State’s men’s team will go dancing.

The women’s team, on the other hand, is the polar opposite. These Buckeyes have a winning record in the Big Ten (7-5, with only two home losses) but have as bubble-y a resume as you can imagine.

Ohio State has been right on the bubble all year. The Buckeyes have a huge win over Louisville, but also have disappointing losses to Ohio and South Dakota.

As in nonconference play, the Buckeyes have also managed to mix good conference wins with bad losses. Wins over Michigan and Minnesota (in Minnesota) are great for the resume, but losses to Michigan State and Purdue keep the Buckeyes from getting off the bubble.

In ESPN’s current bracketology, the Buckeyes are a 10-seed. Before this update, they were one of the “last four in.”

Ohio State has six games left in the season. Five of those six games are against teams currently projected in the NCAA Tournament. The sixth, a February 19th home game against Nebraska, is against a team not far off the bubble.

So, what does Ohio State need to do to get in? With an overall record of 14-9 and three bad losses, it might not be so simple to just give a win target. Will 17-12 get the Buckeyes in the tournament by itself? Probably not. They would need at least one or two wins in the Big Ten Tournament to be in the conversation.

The Buckeyes are 0-3 against Maryland and Iowa on the season, but remaining games against Northwestern, Indiana, and Rutgers give ample opportunity to add another big win to the season. Lose all three of those, though, and things get rough–solely due to an ugly number of total losses. 13 isn’t too many by itself, but it’s a very uncomfortable number without top-end wins.

Speaking of top-end wins, the Buckeyes do currently have one–but it’s fading. That crown win over Louisville was amazing for Ohio State. The Cardinals had no lost any other game and were a potential one-seed for most of the season. Now, though, Louisville is in the midst of a two-game losing skid, including a bad one against Syracuse. It’s still a very quality win for Ohio State and will remain so regardless, but a few more losses would mean it’s no longer the elite win that separates the Buckeyes from the entire rest of the bubble.

Due to less parity in the women’s game than the men’s currently, bubble teams have little to worry about bid thieves. This year, however, has the potential to see one. Florida Gulf Coast is sitting at 24-2 and has a strong resume. Unless the Eagles lose two games down the stretch, they’re likely a tournament lock. Seeing another team win the Atlantic Sun would give that league two bids. That’s not good news for anyone on the bubble.

The Buckeyes can absolutely keep matters in their own hands. Finish the regular season by winning four of the next six–which would include a win over Northwestern, Indiana, or Rutgers–and Ohio State should feel pretty safe. Still, it would help a lot to see Louisville keep on winning. And if the Buckeyes only go 3-3 (especially if the three losses are to the Northwestern/Indiana/Rutgers trio), things will definitely be nervous in Columbus.