Category: Player Movement

Fantasy football forecast after Jaguars waive Leonard Fournette

Where do the Jags turn after waiving Leonard Fournette, and which team will take a chance on him?

Reports had swirled for months about the Jacksonville Jaguars’ intent of trading running back Leonard Fournette, yet his release still feels like a surprise thanks to the timing of it all. In 10 days, the NFL will kick off its season, and the Jaguars will look much different on both sides of the ball after waiving Fournette and trading defensive end Yannick Ngakoue mere hours apart from each other.

Where will Leonard Fournette land?

Fournette is entering his fourth year, which means he’ll be subjected to the NFL’s waivers system. Any team can place a claim on him and pick up his $4.17 million in remaining salary, which clears the Jaguars of that cap charge. In the offseason, waivers are ordered from the worst to best record of the prior season, meaning the Cincinnati Bengals have the first crack at acquiring Fournette. Should he pass through waivers unclaimed, he becomes a free agent and is available to sign with any club at any price.

Looking through the order, the teams with higher levels of needing a running back include the Washington Football Team, Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans. All of those rosters have someone at least penciled in as a starter, suggesting Fournette would be in a tough spot to enter the year as a starter. He could serve as an expensive insurance policy for Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Jordan Howard or David Montgomery — none of which appears to be likely.

A surprise team to watch may be the Detroit Lions. Running back Kerryon Johnson is flimsy, and second-round rookie D’Andre Swift continues to miss time with an undisclosed leg ailment.

In all likelihood, Fournette will hit the open market and be free to find the best fit. That said, those teams also are the premium options for now, unless an injury or surprising cut prior to the season opens a roster spot for him.

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In 2019, Fournette overcame a tumultuous offseason battle with the organization to have a bounce-back year for the Jags. He averaged 17.4 PPR points after a career high of 17.7 as a rookie, regressing to 15.1 in the middle. His worth last year was largely carried by a whopping 76 receptions — mostly dump-off passes — and the bruising back’s touchdown count has dwindled each year since entering the league. Combine those concerns with injury history and a questionable attitude, it will be no shocker if Fournette remains unemployed well into the regular season.

The team to watch closely is Chicago. Quarterback Nick Foles spent a year with Fournette and could vouch for him to the front office. Of course, Montgomery is expected to miss up to four weeks with a groin injury, but there’s no guarantee he is up to speed until several weeks afterward.

Replacing Fournette

From the Jaguars’ perspective, this move leaves second-year back Ryquell Armstead tentatively the starter and Chris Thompson the change-up guy locked in as a third-down specialist. Running backs Devine Ozigbo, Nathan Cottrell, James Robinson and fullback Bruce Miller round out the remaining stable. Yeah, those impressive guys…

The free-agent market is barren at the moment, aside from Devonta Freeman. He’d cost a similar amount to what Fournette was on the books for prior to being sent packing. Alfred Blue, a former Jaguar, is a 29-year-old free agent.

There’s a reasonable chance Washington cuts Adrian Peterson if Bryce Love and Antonio Gibson continue to impress, so All Day would get a chance to be reunited with Jay Gruden, making the transition seamless. Derrius Guice is a free agent and knows the offense, although he’s likely to be suspended after an offseason arrest.

Other former Gruden guys with a possibility to sign could include Samaje Perine and Wendell Smallwood — hardly starting material. Both currently are on rosters and would need to get cut first.

Carlos Hyde could be an option to return to Jacksonville, should he be released by the Seattle Seahawks now that Rashaad Penny (knee) is once again on the field and rookie DeeJay Dallas has impressed.

Fantasy football takeaway

No matter the name, Jacksonville’s primary runner isn’t going to set the world ablaze in fantasy football in 2020. The offensive line is suspect, and everyone but Thompson is learning a new system in a tough defensive division.

Watch the situation play out as the Saturday, Sept. 5, roster deadline nears. Veterans are bound to be cut, and all it takes is one proven back to be thrown into this mix to muck it up for Armstead, the current front-runner for a starter’s workload. As it stands, he’s a fringe RB2 and a better flex target. Thompson is a matchup-based flex, but only in PPR formats. Earmark an RB3 or flex spot should a veteran enter the fray.

As for Fournette, his value is solely contingent upon where he lands. Talent alone, he’s a No. 2 fantasy back. Situationally, he could fall all the way down to unplayable, should a team with a star back add him for depth.

The primary format to select all of these backs is in best-ball drafts. You won’t have to invest as much draft capital, and the penalty isn’t be as harsh for being wrong, but the pay-off ends up being more lucrative for taking such a gamble.

Cam Newton signs with the Patriots

Newton to the Patriots

(Jim Dedmon, USA TODAY Sports)

The ex-Panther signed a one-year deal worth up to $7.5 million with incentives – but Ian Rapport terms it a veteran minimum deal unless Newton ends up with playing time over quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Newton missed all but two games last season and has battled foot and shoulder injuries. He was loosely linked to the Patriots for many months and finally agreed to join the team.

Newton is expected to battle Stidham for the starting role left behind by Tom Brady. He ends up on an obvious winning program and more importantly, one with a solid offensive line each season. At 31 years old, Newton’s best seasons as a rusher are behind him although almost any quarterback will be more mobile than Brady. Newton hasn’t thrown for more than 3,509 yards since 2015 but always added fantasy points via rushing yardage and scores.

His addition makes the Patriots training camp much more interesting. Jarrett Stidham was the 4.31 pick in 2019 but only managed two completions as a rookie. The starting quarterback is no longer a slam dunk for the Pats who will witness their first quarterback change in over 20 years.

Fantasy football stunner: Rob Gronkowski unretires, traded to Bucs

Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are reunited in sunny Tampa. Fantasy owners should rejoice.

I don’t think many people smelled what the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were cookin’ in the past few hours. Star tight end Rob Gronkowski not only unretired after a year hiatus but is traded to the Bucs and reunited with Tom Brady.

What a time to be alive.

Per Schefter, Tampa is the only place Gronk wanted to play. The ESPN insider credited the NFL star turned WWE wrestler’s agent, Drew Rosenhaus, as saying the tight end will honor his one-year, $10 million deal at this time.

So, where does that leave everything for fantasy football purposes?

  • Gronkowski visibly lost considerable muscle mass in his year off, but reports say he’s training hard to get into football shape. Given all of his injuries, it may behoove him to remain on the leaner side. Gronk is one of the best blocking tight ends of the past few decades, if not ever, and the loss of mass could come into play in how the team opts to utilize him. He may be flexed out wide more often than ever.
  • Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard never fit the system and was in the doghouse most of 2019. Count on Tampa trading the young talent between now and the end of the draft. Could Howard remain on the team? It’s not outlandish, but it would be purely in an insurance role should Gronk fall to injury.
  • Presuming Howard is indeed traded (or is even released), the Buccaneers have veteran Cameron Brate on the roster, as well. He’s versatile and is a better blocker than Howard. Look for plenty of Brate on the field, although him seeing targets of consequence is a different tale.
  • In 2020, Tom Brady will have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones and Gronk catching passes from him. The offensive line is solid, outside of right tackle, which should be a high priority in the draft. Running back also may be addressed to help complement Jones and build depth.

Fantasy football takeaway

One has to give Gronkowski the benefit of the doubt, even if he doesn’t get a formal offseason of preparation with his new team. He and Brady can play catch in the dark and still school most defenders. There is a major worry of injury with Gronk, and it’s fair to pencil in him missing at least a couple of contests. On the other side of that coin, losing some bulk is easier on his frame, and the year away should have helped him health in general.

This makes him a No. 1 fantasy tight end by default, and the fun-loving star is poised shine in his new city. There’s an intriguing blend of upside and proven returns that isn’t often found in a soon-to-be 31-year-old tight end.

Gronk’s return secures Brady as no worse than a low-tier starting quarterback, regardless of the risks associated with either player. As for Godwin and Evans, but are WR1 talents but may be occasionally game planned out of fantasy success due to all of the talent in this offense. Furthermore, it is unclear as to which receiver will have Brady’s eye the most. We’ll take a deeper dive after the draft and examine the ripple effect throughout the entire offense.

Robby Anderson hits a small jackpot with Panthers, fantasy owners left scratching

Anderson heads to the Carolina Panthers, but did he destroy his fantasy football value with one stroke of a pen?

(Brad Penner, USA TODAY Sports)

What are fantasy football owners getting out of adding former New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson now that he is a member of the Carolina Panthers after inking a two-year, $20 million deal?

The answer is summed up in a few words: Streaky playmaker.

Why do we know this? Three straight seasons of consistent year-end figures that show a trend of week-to-week ebbs and flows like few others.

Table: Robby Anderson’s career stats (2016-19)

Season
Team
G
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
FanPts/G
2016
NYJ
14
78
42
587
14.0
2
3
42
0
116.9
8.4
2017
NYJ
16
114
63
941
14.9
7
3
9
0
200.0
12.5
2018
NYJ
14
94
50
752
15.0
6
2
-8
0
160.4
11.5
2019
NYJ
16
96
52
779
15.0
5
1
4
0
160.3
10.0

The scoring used in these tables is non-PPR — his optimal setting for fantasy returns. The takeaway should be regardless of the system or quarterback, the core metrics of Anderson’s game do not change to any notable degree. His catch-to-touchdown ratio hasn’t varied more than two grabs in the last three years, and Anderson’s yards-per-reception average hasn’t wavered enough to speak of since he entered the league.

When looking at the yearlong results on a weekly basis, we see massive swings in production.

Table: Robby Anderson’s 2019 per-game statistics

Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
BUF
7
3
23
7.7
0
0
0
0
5.3
2
CLE
6
4
81
20.3
0
0
0
0
12.1
3
at NE
5
3
11
3.7
0
0
0
0
4.1
5
at PHI
3
1
16
16
0
0
0
0
2.6
6
DAL
8
5
125
25
1
0
0
0
23.5
7
NE
8
1
10
10
0
0
0
0
2.0
8
at JAC
6
4
43
10.8
0
0
0
0
8.3
9
at MIA
4
2
33
16.5
0
0
0
0
5.3
10
NYG
3
1
11
11
0
0
0
0
2.1
11
at WAS
3
1
6
6.0
1
0
0
0
7.6
12
OAK
5
4
86
21.5
1
0
0
0
18.6
13
at CIN
10
7
101
14.4
0
0
0
0
17.1
14
MIA
11
7
117
16.7
1
1
4
0
25.1
15
at BAL
6
4
66
16.5
0
0
0
0
10.6
16
PIT
4
2
32
16
1
0
0
0
11.2
17
at BUF
7
3
18
6.0
0
0
0
0
4.8
  • All five scores came in different games, which is good for fantasy owners in weekly, head-to-head leagues.
  • Unfortunately, 80 percent of them came in a five-games span.
  • Since Week 12, he closed out the year strong in all but the finale, and it wasn’t for a lack of targets in that one.

Table: Robby Anderson’s 2018 per-game statistics

Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
at DET
1
1
41
41
1
1
-9
0
10.2
2
MIA
5
3
27
9.0
0
0
0
0
5.7
3
at CLE
4
2
22
11
0
0
0
0
4.2
4
at JAC
6
2
18
9
0
0
0
0
3.8
5
DEN
5
3
123
41
2
0
0
0
27.3
6
IND
5
3
39
13
0
0
0
0
6.9
7
MIN
10
3
44
14.7
0
0
0
0
7.4
9
at MIA
7
4
32
8.0
0
1
1
0
7.3
12
NE
5
2
22
11
0
0
0
0
4.2
13
at TEN
7
4
48
12
0
0
0
0
8.8
14
at BUF
7
4
76
19
1
0
0
0
17.6
15
HOU
11
7
96
13.7
1
0
0
0
22.6
16
GB
13
9
140
15.6
1
0
0
0
29.0
17
at NE
8
3
24
8.0
0
0
0
0
5.4
  • Six touchdowns and half came in three consecutive games late in the year.
  • One score over the first month, and it came on a lone grab.
  • Struggled to exploit top-level competition most of the time.

Table: Robby Anderson’s 2017 per-game statistics

Wk
Opp
Targ
Rec
Yds
Avg
TD
Att
Yds
TD
FanPts
1
at BUF
8
4
22
5.5
0
0
0
0
6.2
2
at OAK
4
2
28
14.0
0
0
0
0
4.8
3
MIA
6
3
95
31.7
1
0
0
0
18.5
4
JAC
6
3
59
19.7
0
0
0
0
8.9
5
at CLE
5
2
16
8.0
0
0
0
0
3.6
6
NE
12
4
76
19
0
0
0
0
11.6
7
at MIA
5
3
35
11.7
1
0
0
0
12.5
8
ATL
6
6
104
17.3
1
1
1
0
22.5
9
BUF
5
4
48
12
1
0
0
0
14.8
10
at TB
7
4
85
21.3
1
0
0
0
18.5
12
CAR
10
6
146
24.3
2
0
0
0
32.6
13
KC
12
8
107
13.4
0
1
7
0
19.4
14
at DEN
6
3
27
9.0
0
0
0
0
5.7
15
at NO
12
5
40
8.0
0
0
0
0
9.0
16
LAC
7
5
51
10.2
0
0
0
0
10.1
17
at NE
3
1
2
2.0
0
1
1
0
1.3
  • Unlike the two more recent seasons, Anderson didn’t close out strong in 2017. But he also didn’t start hot, finding the end zone only once in the first six outings.
  • He did, however, score six times in a five-game span from Week 7-12. The Jets were on bye in Week 11.
  • Anderson averaged just 3.7 catches in the 10 games without a score that year.

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Obviously more goes into a player’s value than his talents and past. The problem here is even if one overlooks Anderson’s demonstrable traits as a football player, he enters a lousy situation to achieve his potential from a statistical perspective.

In Carolina, he’ll catch passes from a game manager in Teddy Bridgewater and have to fight for targets in a moderate-volume passing attack with reception-hog D.J. Moore and do-all wideout Curtis Samuel. We haven’t even addressed that guy in the backfield with 107-plus catches in consecutive seasons…

Going one step further, a rookie head coach and first-time offensive coordinator shouldn’t get the benefit of the doubt 99 percent of the time, and this isn’t the one that falls in that 1 percentile.

Fantasy football takeaway

Few receivers can take a football anywhere on the field and turn it into six points in the way Anderson is capable of doing, but players need more tricks in the bag than “go deep” to become a multifaceted fantasy contributor.

It is far more likely that we’ve seen his ceiling already when compared to what to expect in Carolina. We also may know his floor to be a risk-reward matchup-based, WR3/flex play. But all of that may come with a not so obvious trapdoor in Carolina’s offense, and he realistically could be facing a ceiling somewhere in that flex range if consistency is on your radar — and it needs to be.

As mentioned, his value is at its peak in non-PPR leagues. To Anderson’s credit, he appears to have cleaned up his off-the-field antics, so at least that is going for him.

Fantasy footballers will overreact to Emmanuel Sanders joining Saints

Despite an upgrade at quarterback, Sanders still offers plenty of concerns after signing with the Saints.

Fresh off of his 33rd birthday, free-agent wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders has agreed to terms with the New Orleans Saints, and fantasy footballers should be guardedly optimistic. In the last two years, Sanders has rebounded impressively from a torn Achilles tendon and entered what likely will be his last meaningful shot at free agency.

The San Francisco 49ers traded for Sanders after Week 7 and he made an immediate impact, scoring in his first two games. He would play 17 games thanks to being traded before Denver’s and after San Fran’s bye week. The final eight games with the Niners would result in just one touchdown scored, however.

Sanders still looked fresh by the end of the year, even into the Super Bowl. We could be talking about a different team hoisting the Lombardi Trophy if Jimmy Garoppolo made a better throw, but that’s irrelevant beyond illustrating how much a precise difference in timing can wipe six points off of the board and out of the old fantasy box score. Either way, Sanders still was motoring into February.

Familiar problems?

Sanders going to the Saints creates a whiff of uncertainty for his fantasy football value. The main reason is the greater potential for erratic play or inconsistent success. There are so many mouths to feed in this passing game, plus the Saints will remain committed to running the ball. Michael Thomas, Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara all can and often will come ahead of Sanders in the pecking order of a randomly chosen play. Toss in Tre’Quan Smith and even touches lost to Taysom Hill … This is a crowded offense if anyone is expecting volume from Sanders.

No one wants to think the worst about someone as remarkable as Drew Brees, but the conclusion of the runway is nearing, and who is to say 2020 won’t end poorly for the 41-year-old? Last year, he missed five games with a thumb injury, albeit kind of freaky in nature. The point being, don’t lose sight of Brees being old, and Father Time being undefeated.

Thomas is going to feast as he does, and Sanders will have to do more with less — which isn’t too much different than his time in San Fran. The offense worked within the confines of a run-heavy, three-headed backfield that passed when the situation called for it. There was an ascending rookie in Deebo Samuel taking touches as the year progressed, and a dominant tight end in George Kittle rarely far from the football. Quarterback drop-off aside, the 49ers also limited Sanders’ looks but for different reasons.

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So where does that leave us? Sanders averaged eight targets a game in 2019 over two rosters. That was a fraction less than his 12-game average for 2018 while exclusively in Denver (8.12/game). Sanders saw only 4.7 targets per contest in his entire time with the 49ers. Averaging five looks a week in New Orleans is going to be done with plenty of peaks and valleys along the way.

Some game plans will call for Thomas to take over the show, and Kamara will do this thing in others. The best hope for Sanders is a renewed penchant for finding the end zone, like he has done just one lonely time in his NFL career. He caught nine TDs in 2014, but it took 101 total catches on nearly nine targets an outing. This time, he’ll need to be insanely efficient, and we just haven’t see it in his career.

Fantasy football outlook

Sanders is a flex option in PPR leagues, and gamers looking to invest in standard scoring can treat him as a backup or borderline flex, but only if three other wideouts are required starters.

Due to a lack of consistently reliable involvement, a history of being allergic-adjacent to the end zone, and the reality that he is a 33-year-old receiver barely two years removed from a devastating injury, just how much mediocre does one fantasy football option need to be before gamers draft him accordingly. There’s a strong probability Sanders will get overvalued by someone in your league, and there’s an even better chance he will not return worthwhile fantasy stats for such an investment. Understand the pitfalls before committing too much draft capital.

Melvin Gordon signs two-year deal with Broncos

Melvin Gordon to the Broncos

(Vincent Carchietta, USA TODAY Sports)

Melvin Gordon’s holdout last season was all about signing a bigger contract as a free agent and he’s found a new home only two days after free agency opened for 2020. Gordon signed a two-year, $16 million deal with $13.5 million guaranteed. While it did not reach the heights he likely desired, he does become the highest-paid running back signing of this year. He tops the annual salaries of Jordan Howard ($5 million) and Todd Gurley ($6 million).

Notably, none of the running backs that signed new contracts this year received more than two years. The position saw bigger paydays with Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson signing multi-year deals worth over $13 million each but the rapid decline of Todd Gurley and general low-shelf life of the position has once again devalued it.

Gordon heads to a Broncos team that ranked No. 15 in rushes (409), No. 20 in rush yards (1,662), and No. 23 in rushing touchdowns (11) for 2019. The signing is a little surprising given other team needs and the fact that both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman remain on the roster. Lindsay will be a free agent in 2021, so the move may be in advance of that. While Lindsay rushed for 1,011 yards last year, Gordon obviously becomes the primary back.

Both Lindsay and Freeman are capable receivers and combined for 78 receptions last year, but nearly split the duties in half with 35 and 43 catches, respectively. Both players are likely to participate as the third-down option though Gordon was used for around 50 catches per year with the Chargers.

Fantasy Impact

Gordon’s stock should remain the same or improve slightly. Much depends on how much new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur will rely on Gordon to the exclusion of both Lindsay and Freeman. Shurmur was the head coach for the Giants for the last two seasons and relied on Saquon Barkley almost exclusively. That bodes well for the 26-year old Gordon who remains in his prime.

Gordon has been one of the top scorers in the league when healthy and happy and totals 47 touchdowns in five years. He’s averaged 4.0 yards per run only once and that was in 2017 when he logged his only 1,000-yard season as a rusher (284 carries for 1,105).  That was the only time that he lasted for all 16 games. Gordon missed two to four games in every other season.

It is a newer offense and the Broncos are going with second-year Drew Lock as the starter, barring any free agent or draft moves. The Broncos offensive line has been about average – just like their rushing attack. Gordon has two years to prove himself and he should see at least as much work as he did as a Charger. That makes him top-ten material in fantasy drafts.

Teddy Bridgewater lands with the rebuilding Panthers

Teddy Bridgewater to the Panthers

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Panthers finally part ways with Cam Newton since the one-time League MVP broke down for the last two seasons. He only managed two starts in 2019 and the Panthers relied on Kyle Allen to mostly check down to Christian McCaffrey and ended with a 5-11 record. Going into the offseason on the search for a new starter, they come away with Teddy Bridgewater who signed a 3-year, $63 million deal. That’s not franchise quarterback money, but it is definitely “starter” money.

It is a curious signing and is more likely a fill-in for a Panthers team that could also sign a rookie to groom. The Panthers switch to Matt Ruhe as their new head coach and Joe Brady from LSU will run the offense. The Panthers coughed up enough money to show they expect more than a clipboard holder, but not so much that Ruhe is looking for Bridgewater to be the ongoing face of his new team.

Bridgewater played for the Vikings for his first two seasons but never passed for more than 3,231 yards or 16 touchdowns in a season. He offered two or three rushes per game as well. But he blew out his ACL and suffered significant structural damage in the summer of 2016 on a non-contact play.

His only play of any note was 2019 filling in for Drew Brees but he only managed one game with more than 300 passing yards. His nine starts totaled only nine touchdowns.

Bridgewater will offer a game manager role with short passing that should continue to favor Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore. But this is a rebuilding year and Bridgewater provides a veteran presence at quarterback that should pair with a younger protege’ that will become the future of the franchise under Ruhe.

Tom Brady to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers immediately improves his fantasy football value

At 43 years old in the 2020 season, does Tom Brady have enough left for one more elite fantasy season?

(David Butler II, USA TODAY Sports)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to sign former New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to an undisclosed deal that will pay him at least $30 million per year, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. According to his sources, the only thing holding up the finalization of the contract is TB12 making it official that he’ll be a member of the TB Bucs.

The pluses for are huge from a fantasy football perspective. New England has far more question marks going into the summer months, when it comes to offensive personnel, and the talent disparity is readily evident. Tampa Bay’s wide receivers are arguably the best in the business, led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Free-agent wideout Breshad Perriman could return, as well, after showing he can get it done late last season. Toss in tight ends O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate to create one of the most dangerous passing games in league.

Brady, who’ll be 43 years old come Week 1, has lost a smidge of his deep-ball ability, but his accuracy remains surgical, and there’s more football knowledge between those years than anyone can imagine. Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians loves to sling the ball, but he may need to manage Brady’s arm reps, at least in practice. It begs the question about a trustworthy checkdown. Brady at his best has had slot guys like Julian Edelman and Wes Welker that he can throw to in his sleep, and this team’s personnel is geared toward Arians’ “no risk it, no biscuit” vertical mentality of driving the ball down the field.

[lawrence-related id=449389]

The six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback will play behind a quality offensive line, ranked seventh by ProFootballFocus.com. Right tackle Demar Dotson is a free agent and is hardly irreplaceable. The position is deep in the draft, and there are a few respectable free agents available if Dotson doesn’t return. The interior combination of center Ryan Jensen and left guard Ali Marpet combined to rank as the second-best duo for pass protection up the middle, per PFF.

Running back is in dire need of an upgrade. Peyton Barber is a free agent, and Ronald Jones was hit or miss last season. The draft or free agency could turn around the fortunes of this running game in a hurry, though. The running game doesn’t need to be elite, although a reliable backfield is the best way to help keep Brady’s arm from falling off … if the Bucs win it all in 2020 with the GOAT throwing it 650-plus times, something tells me Arians won’t care in hindsight. For the record, Brady threw 613 passes vs. the 626 Jameis Winston tossed for the Bucs last year.

The system itself is likely to be tailored to Brady’s preferences for methodical passing, slowing matriculating up the field with checkdowns to backs, underneath routes to the slot receivers, and chain-moving throws to the tight end position. Arians’ offenses never have been great for tight ends, and Howard was an unmitigated disaster most of 2019. Brate was serviceable went called upon.

Arians has worked with marquee quarterbacks before, including Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning, and he resurrected Carson Palmer’s career. Arians is known for his creativity in the passing game, and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich has received praise for his hand in the explosive system. There’s plenty to like about the combination of these coaches and Brady’s talents.

Tampa Bay has an up-and-coming defense under coordinator Todd Bowles, and two teams in this division are trending the wrong way. New Orleans will be the primary competition for Brady’s Bucs. Outside of two AFC powerhouses, Brady’s former conference is wide open. It will be much tougher to succeed in the NFC’s parity-laced talent distribution.

Fantasy football outlook

At 43 years old in the 2020 season, does Brady have enough left for one more elite fantasy season? He finished 14th last year in what surely can be classified as a down season. The weaponry has dramatically improved with Brady’s move, and the 2019 iteration of this team posted the second-best fantasy football passer numbers in the league.

Fantasy football drafters should bump Brady up into the lower tier of No. 1 fantasy passers, although it would be foolish to not add a top-flight backup in case he proves to be mortal.

One thing should be for certain in this situation: Never underestimate the cavernous chip on Brady’s shoulder.

Philip Rivers joins the Indianapolis Colts, maximizing his fantasy football value

Where does Philip Rivers fit into fantasy football plays after signing with the Colts?

In what quite possibly was the worst-kept secret in the NFL, Philip Rivers is joining the Indianapolis Colts. It was a natural fit with connections dating back to his days in San Diego where head coach Frank Reich was his positional coach and playcaller, and Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni was a quarterbacks coach.

There is so much to like about the situation. Rivers has arguably the best offensive line in the league now. It ranked 11th in pass protection and second in run blocking last year, according to ProFootballFocus.com. Marlon Mack is among the most dynamic rushers in the NFL, and fellow running back Nyheim Hines offers a dangerous weapon out of the backfield. Playing in a dome never hurts the stats, either.

Indianapolis has T.Y. Hilton as one of the league’s most dynamic receivers, and second-year wideout Parris Campbell stands to be much better with a year under his belt. He faced great adversity in 2019 as a rookie, which tends to make players mature faster. Tight end Jack Doyle is far from elite but has serviceable traits in the checkdown game as well as around the stripe. Expect another receiver to be signed, drafted or landed via trade. The offense needs someone with reliable hands over the middle of the field who can challenge for clutch grabs on third downs.

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Rivers is 38 years old and lacked a little mustard on his fastball last season. He knows the window is closing quickly, which can tend to create extra pressure. Indianapolis is in a rather capable defensive division, and there’s no guarantee Rivers will have strong chemistry with Hilton.

Fantasy football outlook

Rivers is entering the riskiest fantasy season of his career since becoming the starter. Interestingly, though, there really wasn’t a clearly better situation for him. Tampa Bay would have been close, but the line isn’t quite as good, and there’s no obvious running game to rely on. Throwing it 50 times again isn’t how Rivers will maximize his fantasy football returns. At 38, with a questionable arm, no one wants to see him sling it that much anyway.

The problem that haunted him at times was being forced to do too much for a 2019 Los Angeles Chargers team that was out of sorts all season thanks to poor line play, injuries, and the ramifications of a Melvin Gordon hold out. In fact, doing too much has been a consistent theme when things haven’t gone well for Rivers over his 15 years in the NFL. As with most of his career, fantasy footballers will be resigned to accepting the bad with the good when drafting the vet. Rivers will light it up some weeks and toss multiple picks the next.

We know he’s tough as nails, and Rivers still played at a high enough level in 2019 to get the job done. Never underestimate his competitiveness. Unless Indianapolis lands a can’t-miss rookie receiver or coaxes a proven veteran into the mix, Rivers remains a better reserve passer in conventional fake leagues. He will offer starting utility with the right matchups and can maintain last year’s No. 13 overall fantasy quarterback value by staving off Father Time one more season.

Dolphins signing Jordan Howard creates a fantasy football opportunity

(Eric Hartline, USA TODAY Sports) Running back Jordan Howard’s NFL career began with a pair of strong seasons and one unimpressive year for the Chicago Bears before he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles last offseason. He scored 32 offensive …

(Eric Hartline, USA TODAY Sports)

Running back Jordan Howard‘s NFL career began with a pair of strong seasons and one unimpressive year for the Chicago Bears before he was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles last offseason. He scored 32 offensive touchdowns in three and half seasons, which is nothing to scoff at for fantasy football purposes.

It wasn’t always pretty, though. The versatile running back never seemed to fit into Matt Nagy’s offense in the Windy City, but then the move to Philly created a head-scratcher due to the same general offensive system being in place. Prior to a lingering ankle injury, which cut his season to only nine games in 2019, Howard was showing signs of his pre-2018 self. His yards-per-carry average rebounded to a respectable 4.4, and Howard’s touchdown efficiency rating improved to a personal-best 19.8 carries per score. He is still only 25 years old entering Week 1.

Table: Jordan Howard career stats (2016-19)

Year
Team
Gm
Att
Yards
Avg.
TD
Targ.
Rec
Yards
Avg.
TD
PPR
PPR/Gm
2016
Chicago Bears
15
252
1,313
5.2
6
50
29
298
10.3
1
232.1
15.5
2017
Chicago Bears
16
276
1,120
4.1
9
32
23
125
5.4
0
201.5
12.6
2018
Chicago Bears
16
250
935
3.7
9
27
20
145
7.3
0
182
11.4
2019
Philadelphia Eagles
9
119
525
4.4
6
14
10
69
6.9
1
111.4
12.4

In Miami, the current competition for touches is scant. There is little doubt the Dolphins will address the position one way or another to complement Howard, likely inking someone whose focus is the passing game. In the event this isn’t the case — which would be surprising — Howard is “the guy” in an offense that intends to run it. He still should be viewed as the primary back when someone else is added.

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Miami has a defense that has improved in the offseason, but Howard’s carries will come behind an offensive line that absolutely needs to get better. Veteran playcaller Chan Gailey came out of retirement to help lead a youthful offense that has a well-seasoned Ryan Fitzpatrick currently tabbed to start under center. There still plenty of moving pieces that will need to be accounted for in the coming weeks, so keeping one’s expectations in check is wise.

Fantasy football outlook

It’s all about understanding the situation and the expectations. We’re looking at a ground-up rebuild that began last year and will continue for at least another offseason. Gailey’s offensive experience helps, and his willingness to mold the system to the team’s talent shouldn’t be overlooked.

Miami will not always be able to do what they want on offense, and it will result in a detrimental shift away from Howard at times. He also has a few things to prove on his own, so “intriguing” is the best way of describing is fantasy football forecast. The AFC East is a tough division from a defensive perspective, too. His game isn’t the most explosive, and while he is a capable receiver, there are real limitations to his ability in this area of the offensive designs.

Despite the drawbacks, it is all about opportunities for Howard. Monitor the moves made along the line and at wide receiver. Having safety in mind suggests Howard is somewhere in the RB3/flex conversation when composing a roster, and his track record offers hope for No. 2 production in traditional scoring formats. He will come at a fair or even bargain price in most settings.