West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Analyzing West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks and tips.

The West Virginia Mountaineers (18-6, 6-5 Big 12) visit the rival Baylor Bears (22-1, 11-0) Saturday in the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, for a 4 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the West Virginia-Baylor odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

West Virginia at Baylor: Three things you need to know

  1. Baylor is on pace for its best season and its first 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament in the Scott Drew era. In 17 seasons under Drew, Baylor’s highest seed for the tournament was No. 3 in 2010, ’12 & ’15, but the Bears have never won the Big 12 title.
  2. Bob Huggins is looking to get West Virginia back into the NCAA Tournament after missing out last season. 2018-19 snapped a four-year streak of the Mountaineers playing in March Madness.  
  3. Baylor has beaten West Virginia in their last two meetings but the Mountaineers have covered three out of the last four games. 

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West Virginia at Baylor: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Baylor 65, West Virginia 62

Moneyline (ML)

This game will be close because of both team’s defenses (more on that in a second) but what causes me to lean toward West Virginia is its frontcourt mismatch. The two RSCI top-100 ranked recruits in West Virginia’s starting lineup—Oscar Tshiebwe and Derek Culver—lead the Mountaineers in points and rebounds per game. Tshiebwe stands at 6-foot-9 and Culver 6-10; and no one in Baylor’s starting lineup is listed taller than 6-8. West Virginia can use its size to dominate the glass and Baylor out of the paint.

But, I will PASS ON THE MONEYLINE (West Virginia +195/Baylor -239) here because of West Virginia’s 3-5 road record playing a Baylor team that is undefeated (11-0) at home.

Against the Spread (ATS)

The Bears are favored at -5.5 (-110) in what will likely be a defensive match. Per updated stats on NCAA.com, West Virginia is 14th in the nation in opponents scoring, fifth in opponent’s field-goal percentage and third in opponent’s 3-point FG%. But don’t sleep on a Bears defense that ranks fifth in opponent’s PPG, 16th in opponents’ FG% and 61st in opponent’s 3-point FG%. They are going against a West Virginia offense ranked 159th in PPG, 239th in FG% and 319th in 3-point shooting. Plus neither team will be able to ice the game away with their poor free-throw shooting. The Mountaineers are 328th in the nation from the charity stripe, while the Bears are ranked 205th.

BET WEST VIRGINIA +5.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

If the handicap for the line is a defensive battle keeping the game close, then UNDER 130.5 (-121) is the only thing that makes sense here. The extra vig on the Under makes me a feel a little better because it means the market is seeing a similar game as I am. Furthermore, West Virginia’s Over/Under record is 2-6 on the road and Baylor has a 4-7 O/U record at home.

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