Cowboys advance scouting the Dolphins’ personnel, tendencies, and strategy

Looking at what personnel groupings, tendencies and coverages the Cowboys can expect from the Dolphins in Week 16. | From @ReidDHanson

It’s not often the Cowboys have a matchup against the Miami Dolphins. The teams last met in 2019 where Preston Williams led Miami in receiving yards, Kenyon Drake led them in rushing, and Josh Rosen was their top signal caller. Dallas beat those Dolphins of yesteryear 31-6. Much has changed in Miami and it’s safe to say the 2023 version is nothing like those Dolphins of old.

The 2023 Dolphins enter Week 16’s showdown with a 10-4 record, fighting for playoff seeding and desperate to overtake Baltimore for the top spot and the obligatory bye week that accompanies it.

The Cowboys are in a similar situation. They are duking it out with the Eagles in the NFC East and realistically have their sights on the No. 2 seed. While the upcoming NFC games hold more value, every win matters and Dallas has something to prove after their pre-holiday cluster fudge last week in Buffalo.

But with no recent matchups to pull from, what is really known about this Dolphins squad from Miami? What are their strengths and weakness, which personnel groups do they prefer, and what might the Cowboys do to get the better of them?

Breaking down Cowboys’ offensive breakdown, how Dolphins will mirror Buffalo

After getting stonewalled last week by frequent 2-high looks, the Cowboys can safely assume they’ll see the same in Week 16 in Miami, says @ReidDHanson

If it wasn’t for the Cowboys’ horrific run defense against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the Dallas offense would be facing significantly more criticism than they currently are. They were stagnant offensively, and aside from a garbage touchdown late, they were held out of the end zone all day.

In some ways, the Bills took a page from the recently unemployed Brandon Staley and his 2-high scheme that slowed Dallas in Week 6. Buffalo pushed back the coverage and took away big shots downfield. Because their pass rush was routinely getting home, they didn’t need to blitz much. They were able to sit back in coverage and keep things thick in the secondary. They allowed the Cowboys to run the ball and dared them to throw it to the sticks.

And the Cowboys did well rushing the ball. Their success rate on early down runs was at 50.0%, which is well above their season average of just 36.7%. Unfortunately, the Cowboys defense had issues of their own and after falling behind rather quickly, the offense felt compelled to abandon the running game – thus playing into Buffalo’s hands.

Dak Prescott has been phenomenal for most of this season. While he’s played well against many different coverages in 2023, he’s at his best against middle of the field closed looks. He rates at the top of the NFL against those Cover-1 and Cover-3 coverages. It’s just when the safeties split, he slips back into average territory. Part of this is scheme and strategy, but part is also execution.

Absent in Buffalo were the middle of the field throws that he had been executing with precision all season long. It’s a great way to attack split safeties but Prescott only attempted two passes of 10+ yards between the numbers all day. He was pressured last week but all four of his turnover-worthy throws were without facing pressure.

After they watch the film, Miami will no doubt employ a similar plan of attack. When Nick Bosa declared the blueprint to beating the Eagles had been laid out by his 49ers defense, he did so knowing film is public information in the NFL and teams love to copycat and attack weaknesses once they’ve been identified. The Cowboys should expect the same treatment from their upcoming opponents.

The Dolphin’s defense has different strengths and weakness than Buffalo’s, but they’d be fools not to try the same thing that essentially stonewalled the Cowboys. Mike McCarthy’s task is planning for what surely lies ahead.

Dump offs and early down runs are fine if the situation warrants it and the offense is successfully executing such plays. The opposing defense wants Dallas in a third-and-long so there’s nothing wrong with the Cowboys taking some easy early gains so they can avoid bad third down situations.

The Cowboys also have to remember the middle of the field is a great way to get big plays against split safety looks as well. And when the defense plays 2-man like Buffalo often did, (man coverage with two safeties over the top), opportunities for scrambles open up.

In Week 15 the Cowboys appeared ill-prepared to play the Bills defense. In Week 16 they will have no such excuse because what’s coming is fairly obvious.

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Defensive approaches in Cowboys-Giants might be polar opposites

Looking at the strengths and weaknesses of both teams the Cowboys and Giants may apply very different approaches defensively in Week 1. | From @ReidDHanson

Jumping into the mind of an NFL defensive coordinator and predicting their strategy is generally a fruitless endeavor. Not only does it assume to know the plans of some of the most calculated and secretive coaches on the planet, but it minimizes all the many variables that go into each game-day decision.

This type of risky prognostication becomes even more volatile when it departs from the standard operating procedure of the respective coach, whether conservative or aggressive. So, to say Dallas and Giants may each go against their previous norm, may be a little wild. But in a way, that’s exactly what may unfold on Sunday night when New York hosts the Cowboys.

Adaptation is sincerest form of flattening offense’s pulse for Cowboys’ Dan Quinn

The Dallas Cowboys defense is changing, not just from earlier in the year, but within games. @DailyGoonerRaf breaks down how Quinn adjusted to Vikings’ attack in Week 8.

Speed Kills.

It’s a time honored football maxim. In today’s game, speed of adaptation kills. Those clubs whose coordinators can quickly decipher what their opposition is doing to nullify their own game plan, then make changes, often wins.

We’ve analyzed the speed with which Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore can act, game to game and even series to series.  Today, we’re going to look at a small change that defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and his line coach Aden Durde made in the second half of Sunday Night’s win against the Vikings, and how it collared a Vikings offense that was threatening to pull away from the Cooper Rush-led Dallas attack.

Flank Anatomy: Cowboys play design to free Schultz a thing of beauty

The Cowboys crafty coordinator Kellen Moore finds another way to drop an explosive play, this time on the Patriots. @DailyGoonerRaf goes through the anatomy of this specific iteration of Flank LT.

It’s rare that an offensive coordinator can shake an opposing defense completely off the TV screen with a play design, but this is an occurrence Cowboys OC Kellen Moore has made commonplace in 2021.

Against the New England Patriots two weekends ago, Moore again spun his play calling magic, using a concept he likely cribbed from his head coach Mike McCarthy. From his favorite formation, flank — a balanced two tight end, two receiver, one running back set — Moore got his Y, Dalton Schultz, completely free into the New England secondary. Here’s look at the genesis of this play and use it for deeper dives this week into the versatility and the potency of a seemingly ordinary set.

Dirty Work: Selfless Cowboys receivers, tight ends key to two-phase explosiveness

Kellen Moore dusted off variations of Packers’ sweeps to torment the Giants, and was able to do so with great effect thanks to the selfless worth of the pass-catchers’ blocking ability. @DailyGoonerRaf breaks it down.

The 2021 Cowboys’ offense, expected by many to ride Dak Prescott and his trio of talented receivers’ passing attack, has taken a decided turn back to the Triplet’s ’90s. All of a sudden Dallas leads the league in rushing percentage notching their third consecutive 200-yard rushing game this past Sunday.

Part of this turn was necessity. Wideout Michael Gallup injured a calf muscle in the season opener against Tampa Bay and has not returned to fitness. Another is simply that Dallas exudes a flexibility not seen in any prior Cowboys offensive attack. The remaining wideouts — CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper — and the tight end duo of Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin all show the ability to make plays down the field.

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has therefore stayed with a 12-personnel package that keeps two receivers and both tight ends on the field most of the time.

It’s no surprise, given this balance and explosiveness, that the Cowboys lead the NFL in explosive plays(20-yard or more passes, 10-yard or more runs).  What is a bit surprising is that the Cowboys have far more explosives on the ground than they do through the air. They lead the league with 27 explosive runs, tied with the Cleveland Browns. That number is eight more than the sum of explosive passes.

The hidden reason why Dallas can hurt an opponent on land or through the air? Those four receiving targets are selfless blockers, ready to do the dirty work to help Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard reach the third level after the offensive line has broken them into the second.  It’s this dedication to the blocking part of their jobs that gives them an edge when they go out on patterns.

Today, we’ll look at three variants of the old Packers sweep, which Moore dusted off to outflank the Giants. Each of these calls produced an explosive run, and each was spurred by outstanding edge blocking by Amari Cooper and the two tight ends.

Blitz, Blitz, Bait, Pick: Cowboys’ Moore using college tricks while Quinn relies on his kids

While OC Kellen Moore brings collegiate innovation, Dan Quinn’s relying on collegiate-age defenders to execute his commands. A look at how both sides execute, from @DailyGoonerRaf.

When Jerry Jones purchased the Dallas Cowboys back in 1989, he tried a daring rebuilding plan, trusting the project to an old college teammate, Jimmy Johnson — then the head coach at the University of Miami — college football’s most swashbuckling program.

Jimmy raised eyebrows by bringing most of his college staff to Dallas. He sought out an NFL pedigreed offensive coordinator in David Shula, but his defense was the same one coordinator Dave Wannstedt and secondary coach Dave Campo ran at Miami. It was a light, speedy 4-3 that had two true defensive tackles, converted outside linebackers at ends, linebackers chosen for their size and speed templates and a secondary that could play Campo’s quarters coverage zone.

Maligned as “that college defense” at its inception, the Cowboys proved to be very effective once Johnson drafted the right players to run it. Though light, the front seven matched up perfectly with quick, timing offenses like the West Coast 49ers and Packers. Dallas used numbers, building a fearsome nine-man line rotation that wore down opposing offensive lines, until the salary cap system picked it slowly apart.

Going to the college game put the Cowboys ahead of the NFL curve during the Triplets days. When the team aged, Jerry and son Stephen looked to the coaching trees to revive the franchise. On offense, Jack Reilly was brought in to replace Ernie Zampese, and when Bill Parcells retired, Jerry tapped Jason Garrett, an advocate of the Norv Turner/Zampese system that worked so well in the ’90s.

On defense, the Cowboys showed a willingness to let head coaches like Parcells and Wade Phillips run their respective versions of the 3-4, but reverted to systems close to the Johnson/Wannstedt 4-3 once Phillips was fired in 2010. Most recently, Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli ran their updates on their famous Tampa-2 schemes, close cousins to the ’90s Cowboys defense.

Trying to live in the past saw the Cowboys drift. As the Jones sought to regain old glory, the game left them flat footed.  As in the late ’80s, college systems, on offense and on defense, trickled into the pro game. Run-pass option passes became more common. Baltimore went all in on a running quarterback, building an offense for Lamar Jackson nearly identical to the one he ran at Louisville.

On defense, coverages and fronts from defensive minds like Nick Saban and Dave Aranda started to pop up more frequently. The college game is the true laboratory for tactical innovation these days, and NFL franchises that look “down” are suddenly, like Jimmy’s old Cowboys, finding success on Sundays.

It’s been a hard lesson, but in 2021, it appears that the Jones may have found their old mojo, not by again trying to turn back the clock, but instead by going back to school.

The Two Moose: Cowboys’ Kellen Moore used two players to scheme the fun back into the F-back vs Eagles

A breakdown of how Kellen Moore’s continuous creativity used a callback to the 90s against the Eagles, bringing back F-back memories. @DailyGoonerRaf shows how McGovern and Schultz were schemed into greatness.

The Dallas Cowboys lost receiver Michael Gallup early in the season opener due to a calf injury. Gallup’s absence raised fears the Cowboys attack, assumed by many to rely on its “big 3” receiving trio of Amari Cooper, Gallup and CeeDee Lamb, would see diminished explosiveness.

As I have shown in previous pieces on the what worked against the Buccaneers and Chargers game plans, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has had no issues working with a balanced formation. Moore has rarely used three-receiver sets in this young season, relying heavily on one back, two tight end sets and on a two-back, one tight end change up.

Monday night against the Eagles, Moore went positively old school, turning the F-back, that complementary second tight end into a major weapon. In fact, Dallas’ passing game revolved around Dalton Schultz, who lined up at times as a true tight end, but who created big plays as the F-back, the role Daryl Johnston made his own in the go-go ’90s.

The college game does not produce do-it-all F-backs like Johnston anymore, but Moore created a Moose starter kit against Philly, using a backup guard and a shifty blocking tight end. A look at Dallas’ first two scoring drives shows how Dr. Frankenkellen stitched together a Moose monster.

Flank, Flex, Trap, Cut: How Cowboys’ Kellen Moore uses magic to keeps defenses guessing

There may be no stopping Kellen Moore in 2021. @DailyGoonerRaf eloquently breaks down the film to show the ways he tricked Brandon Staley into thinking he was ready in Week 2. He wasn’t ready.

In Week 1’s second look at the tape, an examination revealed how Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore used a very balanced 12 personnel set, a one RB, two TE, two WR formation to stretch Tampa Bay’s stacked defensive fronts and isolate Amari Cooper on linebackers and safeties.

In Week 2, Dallas faced a very different style of defense and Moore adjusted his approach, boding well for Dallas’ ability to attack each opponent throughout the course of the 2021 season.

Brandon Staley’s Chargers unit is based on the defense he learned from Broncos HC Vic Fangio when the two worked together in Chicago.  It’s become the scheme of the moment, a two-deep heavy protection. Staley’s and Fangio’s teams have used the most two-deep secondary looks of NFL defenses by far the past few years.

The run-defense component of each is a “light box” a six-man front that dares opposing offenses to check into runs on 1st and second downs. Staley figures his front can win battles, hold these runs to modest gains and set up 2nd and 3rd-and-long situations that play into his pass defensive calls.

Heading into the game, many people figured that Dallas would either take Staley’s bait, hammer Ezekiel Elliott on 1st-and-10 and either win big or get stuck in L.A.’s trap.

Another option for Moore would be to try and bait the Chargers himself, using move pieces to make a six-man box even lighter. The Packers had used this strategy in their playoff win over Staley’s Rams defense last January.

Green Bay had opened in a two-RB set, and used one to motion into space. This pulled the Rams middle linebacker in their 5-1 front to the perimeter of the scrimmage box, leaving five Rams defenders on five Green Bay offensive linemen. The Packers then hammered at this super light front with great success.

The Rams were forced to bring one of their two safeties up to restore a six man box and the Packers at this point threw deep over a now-depleted defensive secondary shell.

Here’s how Moore and the Cowboys attacked it in Week 2.