2023 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2023?

Best schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
GB 28.3 6.5 -21.8 GB 10 31
PIT 25.7 10.7 -14.9 PIT 7 28
CLE 21.2 18.4 -2.8 CLE 2 20
TB 19.5 12.5 -7.0 TB 5 24
MIN 16.1 7.1 -9.0 MIN 9 27
NO 14.3 8.0 -6.3 NO 8 23
KC 10.0 29.6 19.6 KC 1 6
BAL 9.5 1.8 -7.6 BAL 14 25

Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers – The Packers were saddled with one of the worst running back schedules last year, but Aaron Jones was still the No. 6 fantasy back while Dillion fell from No. 22 to No. 28. Jones turned in another solid year as a rusher and added a career-best 59 catches while Dillon handled almost the same touches as 2021, but wasn’t as effective. The departure of Aaron Rodgers throws everything into question, but at least Jones and Dillion won’t have the schedule working against them.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers – In his rookie season, Harris faced the No. 4 easiest schedule for running backs and ended up as the No. 3 fantasy back thanks in part to his 74 catches. When he suffered a major decline in schedule strength down to only No. 28, he ended up as the No. 14 fantasy back while the Steelers adjusted to life without Ben Roethlisberger. Harris inherits yet another major shift in schedule strength this year, back up to one of the more advantageous slate of games.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – The Browns are consistently in the Top-5 in rushing stats  and have the upgrade in passing with a full season of Deshaun Watson for 2022. Chubb ended as the No. 5 fantasy back anyway, with a career-best 302 carries for 1,525 yards. The Browns lost Kareem Hunt with no real upgrades and just Jerome Ford to play the complementary role. Chubb’s a safe bet for another stellar year that may not be quite as busy, but could be even more effective.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – As of this writing, Leonard Fournette has not signed with anyone, so he could return. The Buccaneers are entering a new era without Tom Brady and relying on a new offensive scheme under first-year OC Dave Canales. Chase Edmonds is new and yet already proven to be just the back half of any committee. The second-year rusher White is the heir apparent to the starting role after just 129 carries as a rookie with only a 3.7-yard average. Another back may still be acquired but at least White is situated with a better situation and schedule than he experienced last year.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
CIN 6.9 -9.2 -16.1 CIN 22 29
BUF 3.3 -17.0 -20.3 BUF 24 30
WAS 1.2 0.0 -1.2 WAS 18 18
LAR 1.2 1.2 0.0 LAR 15 17
DET 0.3 12.0 11.7 DET 6 13
MIA -4.2 -29.6 -25.5 MIA 30 32
CHI -4.6 -7.7 -3.1 CHI 21 21
TEN -10.6 17.4 28.0 TEN 3 2
JAC -12.0 2.1 14.2 JAC 13 11
CAR -19.0 -20.7 -1.7 CAR 26 19
NYJ -19.3 0.0 19.3 NYJ 17 7
DEN -19.5 2.5 21.9 DEN 11 5
HOU -19.9 -11.3 8.6 HOU 23 15
SF -22.2 2.4 24.6 SF 12 4
IND -22.3 -3.1 19.1 IND 19 8
LAC -22.6 15.4 38.0 LAC 4 1

This middle tier says that the schedule shouldn’t be notably bad or good from 2022, so the expectations shouldn’t change in regard to current year opponents. The notable unchanged include Miami facing the No. 30 schedule after battling the No. 32 last year. Derrick Henry (3 vs. 2) and Austin Ekeler (4 vs. 1) again enjoy top ranked schedules.

Worst schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ARI -23.9 -7.3 16.5 ARI 20 10
PHI -24.2 -28.6 -4.4 PHI 28 22
SEA -24.9 -33.0 -8.0 SEA 32 26
ATL -25.0 -21.1 3.9 ATL 27 16
NE -26.1 0.4 26.5 NE 16 3
LV -38.0 -19.8 18.2 LV 25 9
DAL -41.2 -29.2 11.9 DAL 29 12
NYG -42.2 -32.8 9.4 NYG 31 14

As it works out, most of the worst swings are just teams that faced average schedules last year, dropping down to face one of the worst. An impact to be sure, but at least no backfield suffers a freefall from the best to the worst schedule.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – Barkley looked to face a bad schedule in 2022 when he seemingly inherited one of the worst schedules but it ended up not quite so bad as it played out and he managed to stay healthy for the first time since his stellar rookie season. But it is back to yet another tough slate of opponents based on last year’s stats. Barkley has already proven to be better than the effects of a bad schedule anyway, and the offense appears to be on a very positive track between HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys – Like Fournette in Tampa Bay, there is a chance that Ezekiel Elliott re-signs with the Cowboys at a reduced rate (and assumedly workload as well). But Pollard parlayed a fine fourth season into a Top-10 finish among fantasy backs and forced the Cowboys to rethink their backfield. The Cowboys spoke to wanting more rushing this season which is nearly impossible given that their backfield handled an NFL-high 506 carries in 2022. And the only replacements for Elliott are Malik Davis, Ronald Jones and the diminutive Deuce Vaughn. The Cowboys have faced average schedules the last few years, so this downgrade comes at an interesting time with backfield roles changing.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – Like Barkley, the Raiders schedule looked very tough entering 2022 but Jacobs excelled in the first season under HC Josh McDaniels as one of the most productive backs in the NFL. It helped that he went from a previous high of only 273 rushes to 340 carries last year. There’s a contentious contract situation that could be involved and a quarterback situation that is changing. That alone spells some risk, and the schedule won’t be an advantage even if he somehow repeats his 393 touches from last year.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots – The Patriots offense went without OC Josh McDaniels but that meant a heavy reliance on second-year Stevenson, especially as a receiver (69 receptions). That allowed him a Top-10 finish after only ranking No. 48 as a rookie. The offensive scheme is changing again this year with Bill O’Brien as the new coordinator but the Pats appear likely to repeat the usage of Stevenson. The schedule downgrade from what was one of the best down to only average will have an impact, but much of what Stevenson did was related to his receptions, and that should insulate himself from any dramatic decline in fantasy points.

2023 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because two to four wideouts and a tight end are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2022 and 2023 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year and the same values are applied to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. 

This analysis is very close to that for the quarterbacks, but a few minor differences stem from relying on running backs as receivers on some teams, as that skews the pass distribution.

Best schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ATL 76.8 33.3 -43.5 ATL 3 32
LV 74.6 37.7 -36.9 LV 1 31
DEN 52.1 27.3 -24.9 DEN 7 29
DAL 48.3 34.8 -13.5 DAL 2 25
CAR 46.7 19.0 -27.7 CAR 11 30
CHI 43.4 29.0 -14.3 CHI 4 26
NYG 40.0 21.2 -18.8 NYG 10 27
JAC 32.5 22.5 -10.1 JAC 9 21

Kyle Pitts / Drake London, Atlanta Falcons – Great schedule, new offense and a team that still needs to come together for HC Arthur Smith’s third season. Pitts returns from a knee injury which is more important for his value, but Drake London looked situated to take a second-year leap.

Davante Adams / Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders – The quarterback situation will be the limitation and the second season of HC Josh McDaniel has taken a step backward in shuffling the roster.  Adams has always performed well, and there could be some surprising value here. But the risk is undeniable at least until there’s comfort around the quarterback position.

Courtland Sutton / Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos – As bad as the Broncos’ offense seemed last year, the reality is that Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy both had career-best seasons. Sure, there was talk about trading a wideout away but it never happened. The schedule improves from No. 29 up to No. 7 and the Broncos appear poised to improve, even while they learn the new offense under HC Sean Payton. The schedule should help.

CeeDee Lamb / Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys finally replaced Amari Cooper after a season without anyone besides Lamb to move the offense. Brandin Cooks changes teams yet again, but the schedule should help him offer fantasy value. There’s a new offense to learn and questions regarding how losing OC Kellen Moore will impact the offense. But feel good about drafting Lamb and Cooks should offer better value than expected which describes the entirety of his on-the-move career.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
BAL 29.6 8.1 -21.5 BAL 14 28
CIN 26.4 15.2 -11.2 CIN 12 23
NYJ 12.4 12.4 0.0 NYJ 13 17
PIT 10.1 -0.4 -10.5 PIT 18 22
TEN 3.5 -9.3 -12.8 TEN 21 24
MIA 1.2 0.0 -1.2 MIA 17 18
TB -3.7 24.3 27.9 TB 8 6
DET -4.5 0.9 5.4 DET 16 14
NE -8.7 -13.2 -4.5 NE 26 19
IND -11.5 4.7 16.2 IND 15 10
CLE -14.3 -23.5 -9.2 CLE 29 20
BUF -16.4 -10.3 6.1 BUF 23 13
NO -17.4 27.7 45.1 NO 6 3
MIN -17.6 -16.0 1.6 MIN 28 16
HOU -17.7 -7.1 10.6 HOU 20 12
ARI -23.4 -12.6 10.8 ARI 25 11

The good news from this middle tier is that both the Buccaneers and Saints enjoy another season of living in the NFC South where defenses are optional.

Worst schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
SEA -31.3 -4.8 26.4 SEA 19 7
SF -32.1 -12.3 19.8 SF 24 9
GB -32.9 28.4 61.3 GB 5 1
PHI -47.1 -13.8 33.4 PHI 27 4
LAR -48.7 -43.9 4.7 LAR 32 15
KC -50.6 -24.6 26.0 KC 30 8
LAC -69.5 -9.9 59.6 LAC 22 2
WAS -71.4 -40.4 31.0 WAS 31 5

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders – Schedule strength is always least predictive for receivers, but the Commanders’ opponents this year will prove more challenging than 2022. This is made worse with a quarterback situation that will likely end up with Sam Howell who only completed 11 passes as a rookie. If Jacoby Brissett wins the starting job (or Howell loses it at any point), it will likely be better for the wideouts. But new OC Eric Bieniemy steps into a very different world than the one he left in Kansas City.

Keenan Allen / Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers – There’s also the rookie Quentin Johnson involved this year. While the schedule drops from No. 2 to No. 22, this is a powerful offense with Justin Herbert under center. The schedule won’t help, and the Bolts learn a new offense under OC Kellen Moore. But there’s enough talent on both ends of a pass to compensate for the tougher slate of opponents.

Kadarius Toney / Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs have  worse schedule, but arguably the best quarterback. This is HC Andy Reid’s team, so the loss of OC Eric Bieniemy shouldn’t matter much. And if any team is better than their schedule, it is the World Champion Chiefs.

Cooper Kupp / Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams – Hard to believe that this time last year, the Rams just won a Super Bowl and all was right with their world. Cooper Kupp was still the center of their offense up until he went down with a severe high ankle sprain. The Rams did not add anyone notable as a second wideout, and Jefferson hasn’t proven to be up to the task even as a complementary receiver. Regardless of the schedule, it will continue to be Kupp as the primary read on every pass.

2023 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2022 and 2023. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2023. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t reliably different for the player.

Best Schedule Swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ATL 38.2 20.7 -17.4 ATL 1 28
LV 34.9 16.9 -18.0 LV 2 29
CAR 28.3 5.3 -23.0 CAR 10 32
DEN 15.9 11.8 -4.1 DEN 4 23
NO 13.3 11.7 -1.6 NO 5 21
PIT 11.7 -8.3 -20.1 PIT 25 30
CLE 10.5 -12.0 -22.5 CLE 29 31
BAL 8.9 0.7 -8.2 BAL 15 27

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons – No NFL team ran fewer plays or gained fewer yards than the Falcons last year. So the rebuilding year happened at a bad time, with the schedule already working against them. Throw in a rookie quarterback and the results were not shocking. But the upgrade in quarterback schedule is immense as HC Arthur Smith’s second season kicks off with a more season crew of Ridder, Drake London, a healthy Kyle Pitts (hopefully) and the hype monster of Bijan Robinson. The Falcons may not rocket to the top of the standings, but an improvement appears a lock and the schedule is going to work for them this year.

Quarterbacks, Las Vegas Raiders – Maybe it will be Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe it will be Brian Hoyer. Maybe it will be fourth-round pick Aiden O’Connell. The only certainty is that it will not be Derek Carr for the first time in ten years. The offense under HC Josh McDaniels ended with moderate passing stats though most of that all went to Davante Adams.  And the schedule was one of the worst, so just ending average on the pass was a success, even if Carr’s final year was in a tough situation. There will be  opportunity once it is certain which quarterback is the starter.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers – Optimism is high for the 1.01 pick of this year. He lands on a rebuilding Carolina team that’s starting over, again, and restocked their offense mostly through free agency. It’s a tall order to expect even the best player in college to step into a highly productive role on a team that’s starting over with coaches, scheme and personnel, but at least the schedule won’t work against him as he starts to learn the ropes.

Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) – The Broncos were average at best in the first season of Wilson under center. But now HC Sean Payton shows up to do his magic to the sluggish offense of the last few seasons. The jury is still out on Wilson, who hasn’t been a difference-maker in the last two years, and the offense hasn’t had many upgrades while rumors abounded regarding  potential trades of their wideouts. But Wilson gets a Top-5 schedule for 2022, and just in time to learn a new offense that worked wonders in New Orleans.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
TB 6.6 6.9 0.3 TB 8 16
CHI 4.9 13.3 8.4 CHI 3 9
DAL 3.2 -1.4 -4.6 DAL 20 24
KC 2.9 6.5 3.6 KC 9 14
MIA 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 MIA 19 22
NYJ -0.1 0.0 0.0 NYJ 17 17
CIN -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 CIN 18 18
JAC -2.7 1.1 3.8 JAC 13 13
TEN -3.1 -10.1 -7.0 TEN 27 26
NE -4.0 0.6 4.6 NE 16 12
MIN -4.0 -5.4 -1.5 MIN 23 20
GB -6.1 10.5 16.6 GB 6 4
NYG -6.8 -4.9 1.8 NYG 21 15
LAR -9.1 -14.0 -4.8 LAR 31 25
BUF -11.0 1.1 12.1 BUF 12 6
SEA -14.8 -8.9 5.9 SEA 26 11

Expect about the same schedule strength from the above teams. The only notable are both the Titans (Ryan Tannehill / Will Levis) and the Rams (Matt Stafford) still face a daunting set of opponents again this year.

Worst Schedule Swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
HOU -15.5 -7.2 8.4 HOU 24 10
DET -16.4 2.5 18.9 DET 11 3
LAC -19.0 9.5 28.5 LAC 7 1
IND -19.7 -5.4 14.3 IND 22 5
WAS -20.9 -11.4 9.5 WAS 28 8
PHI -21.1 0.8 21.9 PHI 14 2
SF -22.7 -13.0 9.7 SF 30 7
ARI -25.2 -26.2 -1.0 ARI 32 19

Kyler Murray (ARI) –  There are many red flags surrounding the Cards and Murray.  His planned return is uncertain, and his receiving corps was stripped of DeAndre Hopkins. Now he also faces the worst schedule and the largest drop in schedule strength, whenever he can return from his knee injury of 2022.

Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers – Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or Sam Darnold? Given the recent injury history of the 49ers’ quarterbacks, maybe it’ll be a bit of all three. The schedule strength suffers a dramatic swing from the No. 7 to the No. 30 ranked set of opponents. The 49ers defense helps prevent the need for a shootout and the rushing offense is in great shape with Christian McCaffrey. The overall talent in receivers is there, but an iffy situation at quarterback coupled with one of the worst schedule strengths makes the position risky for 2023.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – Herbert enjoyed what turned out to be the weakest schedule against quarterbacks last year, and while the stats suggest that he’ll have a tougher challenge, it may not be that noticed. The Chargers drafted Quentin Johnson to give them three great options at wideouts, and the drop from No. 1 was only to No. 7 – still better than most of the league.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts – Fantasy fans want to see the Colt’s rookie evolve into the next Lamar Jackson but he already missed last year’s softer No. 5 ranked schedule. Richardson projects as most dangerous, and more valuable in fantasy, from his rushing ability.  The schedule is not kind but he’s not expected to immediately produced a high-powered passing attack.

2022 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2021 and 2022. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2022. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t really reliably different for the player.

What is relative is when a player has a significant shift in the quality of defenses that he will face. Davis Mills leaves the No. 32 ranked schedule last year and faces the No. 7 for 2022 – that should be a notable positive for his second year. Conversely, Lamar Jackson went against the No. 8 schedule in 2021 but drops to only No. 26 – that won’t help his passing game that already lost Marquise Brown.

Best schedule swings

Davis Mills (HOU) – Mills’ final four games as a rookie resulted in eight touchdowns, and he totaled four 300-yard games on a bad team that faced the worst schedule in the NFL for 2021. This year, he enjoys the biggest positive swing in the NFL shooting up to the No. 7 best schedule strength. The Texans have been one of the most dysfunctional franchises these past few years, but at least the schedule turns around for them and Mills’ second season contains more promise than may seem at first glance.

Marcus Mariota/Desmond Ridder (ATL) – The quarterback situation isn’t certain this year, and that brings plenty of risk for a franchise that’s moved on from all the best players of recent years. Last year ended poorly for the passing effort but did face one of the worst schedules along with losing Calvin Ridley. The improved schedule will help whichever quarterback starts, but neither were there last year, so there’s no real comparison.

Matt Ryan (IND) -Although Ryan wasn’t with the Colts last year, recall his down year in Atlanta went against one of the worst schedules and now restarts his career versus the No. 6 schedule for quarterbacks. The receivers are iffy outside of Michael Pittman, and the Colts make swapping out aging quarterbacks an annual event, but at least Ryan has an easier slate of games to get his career back on track.

Carson Wentz (WAS) – Following the theme of older quarterbacks leaving town after a down year versus a bad schedule, Wentz moves to Washington where he too trades up from a No. 29 schedule to the No. 2 best for 2021.  He’s no better than an average fantasy backup, but at least he gets a more generous schedule if you have to use him for more than a bye week cover.

Jared Goff (DET) – The ex-Rams quarterback likely still feels the sting from getting dumped on the lowly Lions offense while his old team just won the Super Bowl. But he was given a few new weapons for 2022 and starts a second season with the offense. Throw in a schedule that went from No. 27 up to No. 9 and he’s another fantasy backup that should see an increase in production.

Worst schedule swings

Derek Carr (LV) – This is a bothersome development, given that Carr usually flirts with the Top-12 in recent seasons and just upgraded with Davante Adams. But that nightmare 2021 season went against the No. 9 schedule, and now the Raiders are pitted against the No. 30 quarterback schedule. That isn’t to say that Adams cannot continue to be a pass-sponge, but overall, Carr has to contend with much better secondaries for this year.

Lamar Jackson (BAL) – The reality is that Jackson is a premier running quarterback, so his matchups typically fare differently than do other quarterbacks when they face a particular defense. But it is troubling that his stats were down across the board even before ending his season early in Week 14. He’s not only facing a much more daunting schedule than 2021, the Ravens did nothing to replace the departed Marquise Brown’s 91 catches and 1,008 yards.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) – The better the quarterback, the less that the schedule matters. That could hold true for Rodgers who’s been a fantasy starter for his entire career. He doesn’t face a bad schedule so much as he enjoyed one of the easiest set of opponents last year and 2022 looks to be just average in schedule strength. Maybe not the ideal year to miss Davante Adams, but Rodgers plays bigger than his schedule anyway.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Like a few other elite quarterbacks, Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs only brought in a few moderately-talented replacements. The decline in schedule will have at least a minor impact and may only matter thanks to losing Hill. But Mahomes is yet another quarterback that is bigger than his schedule.

Kyler Murray (ARI) – He’s another elite quarterback who rates as a fantasy starter every year. He was banged up, as was his receivers last year, and ended on a down note. For 2022, Murray loses DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks of a year facing the No. 29 schedule for quarterbacks. Adding in Marquise Brown should lessen the impact and Murray is healthy again. But the schedule will have an impact, and likely most at the start of the season when Hopkins is out.

2022 Schedule Swings: Receivers

Which receiver gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for receivers is typically the least accurate compared to running backs and quarterbacks because there are two to four wideouts and a tight end that are regularly used per team, and each varies in how they mix them.

That means comparing the schedule strength between 2021 and 2022 is also harder to apply to individual players. Only the extremes are likely to matter.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to receivers last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and the same values are applied to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year.

Best schedule swings

Kyle Pitts / Drake London (ATL) – Applying schedule strength to receivers is never straightforward, but at least in Atlanta their receivers are mostly just Pitts and the rookie London. The Falcons trade the worst schedule for receivers for 2021 for an advantageous No. 6. A shaky backfield means the passing game will be needed often, though the quarterback situation is less than optimal to start their rebuilding year.

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson (WAS) – Streaking from the No. 28 up to the No. 1 schedule for receivers is bound to benefit McLaurin and even the rookie Dotson who is projected to be a starter. There’s a new quarterback in Washington, but Carson Wentz should be good enough to help the Commander’s receivers to find some advantage in the lightest cast of opponents.

D.J. Moore / Robby Anderson (CAR) – The Panthers passing game declined last year, especially for Anderson, but should see at least an incremental turnaround, no longer fighting one of the worst schedules for receivers. Sam Darnold is running out of chances to prove himself but should be able to connect better with Moore and Anderson for 2022.

Stefon Diggs / Dawson Knox BUF) – One of the elite passing offenses in the league hardly needs any extra advantages, but the Bills swing over to one of the lightest in the NFL and Josh Allen already has chemistry with Diggs, Knox and Gabriel Davis. The wideouts already ranked No. 1 in the NFL with 443 targets in 2021. Maybe this year, they’ll catch even more.

Worst schedule swings

Amari Cooper / Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) – The Browns ranked in the Bottom-3 for most receiving categories for wideouts last year and upgrading to an aging Amari Cooper may not be the boost they need. Facing the worst schedule for receivers after flopping against the No. 9 last year doesn’t bode well for an increase in receiver production.

Cooper Kupp / Allen Robinson (LAR) – There’s no mistaking that the Rams face a much tougher schedule this year, but Kupp was already churning out astronomic stats and Robinson is a clear upgrade for the No. 2 wideout. The Rams are likely to be challenged to run well, and Matt Stafford led them to a Super Bowl win last year as the No. 1 offense in wideout catches, yards, and touchdowns. This isn’t a feel-good addition to their outlook, but if any receivers can be better than their schedule, it is the Rams.

Justin Jefferson / Adam Thielen (MIN) – Similar to the Rams, the Vikes enjoyed one of the lightest schedules for receivers in 2021, and now face the No. 25 toughest slate of games for the position. And as with the Rams, the Vikings receivers – principally Jefferson – are elite and should be better than their opponents.

Diontae Johnson / Chase Claypool (PIT) – This is a concern for the Steelers wideouts and tight ends. Their schedule was just average last year, and falls to only No. 31 while installing a new quarterback(s) for the first time since 2004. And the receivers were already ranked No. 31 last year with just 10.9 yards per catch by wide receivers. The ability to throw downfield will improve regardless of which non-Roethlisberger quarterback starts, but connecting with receivers could be tougher regardless.

2022 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets a far easier schedule for 2022? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2022 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is actually more interesting than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2022?

Both the Bears and Dolphins have a Top-5 schedule for running backs, but they had great schedules last year as well, so there’s no boost for their offenses.

Best schedule swings

Seattle Backfield – This is worth tracking through the offseason because whoever tops the depth chart gets to face an easy schedule, far better than the No. 31 they faced last year.  Chris Carson’s neck injury is a major question mark, Rashaad Penny has been an injury waiting to happen aside from a handful of games last year, and they tabbed Kenneth Walker as the second running back drafted back in April. Losing Russell Wilson already has the Seahawks looking to do more with the run and a friendlier schedule should help accommodate that plan – whichever back can take advantage.

Devin Singletary/James Cook (BUF) – The Bills backfield only ranked No. 31 in carries last year, and their schedule (No. 19) was mostly average. They upgraded to the No. 1 running back schedule in total points for 2022 which should encourage more rushing, and the rookie James Cook was the third running back taken in the NFL draft.  But so long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of the pass-happy scheme, the backfield won’t likely take full advantage of a schedule gift this year.

D’Andre Swift/Jamaal Williams (DET) – The fantasy community is higher on the oft-dinged Swift and the schedule makes that sentiment even stronger. Rocketing up from the No. 26 spot to the No. 2 will make a difference so long as Swift can stay healthy. The Lions’ offensive talent promises to be at least incrementally better this season and facing a lighter set of opponents will improve them even further.

J.K. Dobbins (BAL) – The Ravens backfield is another unit that is a committee with a lot more questions than answers. Dobbins and Gus Edwards return (probably) from injury. Mike Davis and the rookie Tyler Badie were added. The Ravens’ backfield struggled with injuries last year and ranked in the Bottom-5 for most running back categories. The schedule lightens up significantly but the roles of individually players remain murky.

Antonio Gibson/J.D. McKissic/Brian Robinson (WAS) – There’s a definite bump up in ease of schedule for the Commanders’ backfield, but the division of labor appears to be even greater this season. McKissic returns for the third-down role, Gibson was good last year but not as great as hoped, and they added the bull Robinson who could figure in for short-yardage and goal-line work.  Gibson could lose at least minor touches, but at least he’ll have an easier schedule for an advantage.

Worst schedule swings

Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon (GB) – The Packers backfield ranked slightly above average in most fantasy metrics last year but even that may be hard to replicate in a season where they drop from the No. 2 to the No. 25 schedule for running backs. The backfield already split touches between Jones (223) and Dillon (224) last season and now they’ll face tougher defenses. Jones is less likely to be impacted as the primary receiver in the backfield.

Najee Harris (PIT) – The shift to a non-Roethlisberger offense already casts uncertainty on the offense and Harris already was one of the elite backs as a rookie, so he’ll be challenged to repeat his great 2021. Falling from No. 4 to No. 27 in schedule strength will have an impact, but his role as a rusher and how often he’ll be used as a receiver with Mitchell Trubisky under center remains unknown.

Cam Akers (LAR) – Tearing his Achilles erased his 2021 season other than returning very late and doing very little. Now Akers will be a year removed from the same injury that ended most players’ careers and he has to face a decline from the No. 3 schedule of last year to only No. 24. The Rams’ backfield was only average in rushing for 2021 and in the Bottom-3 in all receiving categories for running backs. Akers has an uphill battle to meet the expectations that he spawned last year before his injury.

Josh Jacobs (LV) – After two seasons of mostly RB1-level production, Jacobs’ outlook isn’t as shiny as it once was. He’s due to be a free agent in 2023 and isn’t expected to be a great fit for the new Patriots-style offense that new head coach Josh McDaniels is installing. The backfield is already a bit murky with Kenyan Drake returning from a broken ankle, ex-Patriot Brandon Bolden signing, and drafting Georgia’s Zamir White who some speculate could replace Jacobs this year. The Raiders faced the No. 20 schedule for running backs in 2021 and now are pitted against the No. 32 slate of opponents for this season. It all casts shadows that may never turn bright.

2021 Schedule Swings: Receiving

Comparing schedule strength for fantasy football receivers – 2020 vs. 2021

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Will he face an easier or tougher schedule? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Since this compares all tight end and wide receiver production each week, there are a lot of points at play and how they are distributed within an offense has obvious variation. The schedule strength has the least accuracy with receivers, so consider this as a minor tool in valuing wideouts and tight ends.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing

Best Swings

Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith (NE) – The Patriots’ first season without Tom Brady went against the worst schedule strength in the NFL last year, so rising to the No. 10 should yield significant improvement. Now the only issue is an all-new set of receivers catching passes from either Cam Newton or the rookie Mac Jones.

Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims (NYJ) – The Jets are another team that suffered a horrible schedule strength in 2020 and now improve for this year. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson installs a new offensive scheme that will be a bigger success factor, and the receivers haven’t been upgraded either.

Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle (SF) – The 49ers’ passing game fell apart last year thanks to injuries to almost everyone. If they can stay healthy, the schedule becomes their friend in this complex passing game that may end up manned by a rookie quarterback.

Kenny Golladay, John Ross, Darius Slayton (NYG) – Daniel Jones looked significantly worse in his second season, but the No. 30 schedule hampered his mediocre set of receivers. The crew was upgraded this year and the slate of games clears up nicely for 2021.

DJ Moore, Robby Anderson (CAR) – Moore and Anderson were both productive last year even under a bad schedule. That won’t be an issue for 2021, but now they’ll rely on Sam Darnold trying to get a mulligan on his career.

Worst Swings

Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry (CLE) – The Browns draw no favors from the schedule with a serious decline from 2020. Throw in that they prefer to run the ball, and Beckham and Landry will be challenged to improve.

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (LAC) – Justin Herbert was the rookie of the year and his schedule helped a bit. Allen and Williams won’t have that benefit but they will have a year’s worth of experience with Herbert and the Chargers’ passing scheme doesn’t employ a lot of receivers in most plays.

A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Josh Reynolds (TEN) – Brown broke out in the second half of the 2020 season with impressive performances, though that was mostly facing the rest of the AFC South. This year, there are still meetings with the Texans and Jaguars, but the rest of the schedule is far less inviting.

2021 Schedule Swings: Rushing

Comparing schedule strength – 2020 vs. 2021

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Will he face an easier or tougher schedule? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Passing
Schedule Strength Swing – Receiving

Swing Points – The positive or negative point change in their schedule strength between last year and this year.

Best Swings

Cam Akers (LAR) – This is an exciting development for the second-year player. After starting slowly and then catching fire late in his rookie year, Akers is the clear-cut primary back for the Rams and trades the No. 30 schedule strength for the No. 8. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the needle points upward for the Ram’s backfield.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While normally placing in the Top-5 of running backs each year, Elliott tumbled to No. 9 when the Cowboy’s offense went cold without Dak Prescott. That coincided with facing the No. 31 rushing schedule and Elliott turned in his worst season. Now Dak is back, and the schedule at least rises to only average.

Melvin Gordon, Javonte Williams (DEN) – The biggest problem will be relying on either back unless an injury or coaching move produces more clarity for the Denver backfield. The problem is that the Broncos get the No. 1 rushing schedule for 2021, so both backs may look equally as good. This is a good spot to be if either is removed from the rotation for any reason.

Joe Mixon (CIN) – Mixon’s biggest issue has been staying healthy, and working behind an ineffective offensive line for four seasons has not helped that cause. At least the schedule is better, and the offense improved with Joe Burrow last year. The point shift suggests better production, but he’s still facing the No. 10 rushing schedule with durability and blocking questions.

Chris Carson (SEA) – He signed a three-year extension to remain the primary back for the Seahawks but had injury issues last year along with one of the toughest schedules. Carson has been a lock for 1,000 yards and eight to ten touchdowns when healthy, and the schedule becomes a friend for 2021. Rashaad Penny hasn’t been a factor for three years, and Carson takes the look of a solid RB2 addition to a fantasy team.

Worst Swings

Aaron Jones (GB) – The Packers let Jamaal Williams go and promoted A.J. Dillon, so fewer short-yardage rushing touchdowns may go to Jones. And worse yet, he enjoyed the No. 2 rushing schedule in 2020 and ended up as the No. 5 back. But, he incurs one of the most dramatic swings possible, swapping that No. 2 for a No. 31 this year thanks to facing defenses from the NFC West and AFC North. Throw in the Rodgers situation and he looks far riskier this season.

 Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones (TB) – Their schedule was only average last year but drops to the worst in the league for rushing in 2021. That won’t make the normal drop in production from a Super Bowl season any easier to avoid. The duo are in a timeshare, and there may be even more hands in the pie with second-year Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard there.

Jonathan Taylor (IND) – While the Colts do have a significant rise in rushing  schedule strength, they still face the No. 11-ranked slate of games. The No. 1 schedule helped the rookie Taylor end up as the No. 6 fantasy back. His fortunes are more sensitive to the effectiveness of Carson Wentz and the passing offense.

2021 Schedule Swings: Passing

How does the schedule compare to last year?

The fantasy football strength of schedule is a useful tool, comparing the games for each team against what those defenses allowed the previous season. But what is even more useful is to compare that against 2020.

Simply put – you know what a player did last year. Is he going to have an easier or tougher time? Only the extremes are worth noting given how teams and players change from year to year. So, the best comparison is between what their schedule strength was last year versus this year.

Also see:
Schedule Strength – Passing
Schedule Strength – Rushing
Schedule Strength – Receiving
Schedule Strength Swing – Rushing
Schedule Strength Swing – Receiving

Swing Points – The positive or negative point change in their schedule strength between last year and this year.

Best Swings

Cam Newton, Mac Jones (NE) – As would often be the case, the team with the best positive swing has an unclear situation at quarterback and a complete makeover of the receiving corps. The Patriots ranked near the bottom in all passing categories in 2020, including dead last with only ten passing touchdowns. Newton did more damage as a runner which means nothing in this metric. If Mac Jones shows up at any point as the starter, he’ll get an advantage with the schedule compared to what Newton struggled against last year.

Daniel Jones (NYG) – Jones struggled last year against what became the worst passing schedule and it showed. After a promising start in 2019, he fell off the fantasy map with Saquon Barkley’s departure and a set of receivers that also incurred rampant injuries and underperformed. Now the G-Men have restocked the receivers, Barkley’s back, and the schedule at least becomes average in strength.

Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance (SF) – Like the Patriots, the 49ers welcome a dramatic positive shift in schedule strength from last year and also have an unclear quarterback situation. The 49ers were decimated by injuries in 2020 and not one of their starters lasted all 16 games. A healthy Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle going against the No. 4 fantasy schedule for quarterbacks should pay off well, if they make it clear who the starter will be and then stick with him.

Zach Wilson (NYJ) – The rookie Wilson lands in what has been a Siberia for quarterbacks, but at least the schedule is far kinder this year; there’s some optimism with a new offensive scheme along with a few minor upgrades to the receivers. It’s still a tall order to expect much from a rookie quarterback in this situation, but at least the schedule shouldn’t be the biggest challenge Wilson will have kicking off his NFL career.

Matt Ryan (ATL) – The offense changes with HC Arthur Smith importing his scheme from the Titans and there is some concern that Ryan may have peaked physically as a passer. But he’s gifted potentially the best tight end ever drafted and a schedule that improves markedly from 2020. 

Worst Swings

Justin Herbert (LAC) – The rookie shattered all expectations when he finished as the No. 8 fantasy quarterback with 15 games played. He benefitted by going against what was the No. 2 fantasy schedule. He’s saddled with the worst swing from 2020 but the schedule is still only No. 23 and he’s shown remarkable progress in reading NFL defenses.

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – The Browns are already in a bad division for passing and already went against the No. 24 schedule last year when they ranked low in passes (29) and passing yardage (26). They end up with the worst schedule for passing in 2021 but they will run the ball more anyway. Baker has a few nice weapons, but the need is low and the schedule works against them even more this year.

Tom Brady (TB) – He moved to Tampa Bay at a fortuitous time, leaving the Pats No. 31-ranked pass schedule for the Buccaneers’ No. 8, along with a massive upgrade in pass targets. It’s always tougher the next year after winning a Super Bowl and the schedule is not working in his favor this year. But – he is Brady and still throws to a dizzying set of pass targets.

Jared Goff (DET) – The Rams fell out of love with their former first-round pick and shipped him off to the Lions in exchange for Matt Stafford. Goff wasn’t there last year but it is just as well since everything is new in Detroit anyway and the receiving corps have been completely made over (and, perhaps, not in a positive way). He’ll have to figure out the new offense using a downgraded set of receivers and battle a schedule that is also not working in his favor.