Wyoming Deserves An NCAA Tournament Bid

Wyoming Deserves An NCAA Tournament Bid Will the Cowboys punch their ticket? Contact/Follow @MWCwire Jeff Linder might be holding his breath The Wyoming Cowboys Men’s Basketball team has had one of it’s best regular seasons in Program History this …

Wyoming Deserves An NCAA Tournament Bid


Will the Cowboys punch their ticket?


Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Jeff Linder might be holding his breath

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The Wyoming Cowboys Men’s Basketball team has had one of it’s best regular seasons in Program History this year. This team has been seen as a NCAA Tournament lock for the better part of the season, Being ranked as high as 10th in the NET rankings, the Cowboys have received a lot of attention. However, the last three weeks of the season were brutal for the Cowboys with them dropping five out of nine games, including a semifinal exit from the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Despite the slow end to the season the Cowboys definitely have a resume that warrants them playing in the Big Dance. Let’s go over the top 3 reasons Wyoming belongs in the field of 68.

Final NCAA Tournament Projections: Four Bid Mountain West?

The Cowboys are Road Warriors

One huge factor for the Cowboys this year has been their performance on the road. The Cowboys have 9 true road wins, which is the best in the Mountain West Conference, and good for 11th in the country. Only one team from a Power Conference has more road wins than the Cowboys do. Tournament teams play well on the road. Wyoming has shown that they can win on the road. The Cowboys have road wins against Washington, Grand Canyon, Cal-State Fullerton, Utah State, Nevada, Air Force, Fresno State, San Jose State, and a win against UNLV on their home court in the conference Tournament. This is the most road wins that the Cowboys have had in program history.

“Wyoming week”

Arguably the most one of the most impressive stretches during the season for Wyoming was from January 31 to February 8th in which they won 4 huge games in 8 days. During that stretch, the Cowboys had wins against Colorado State, Boise State, Fresno State, and Utah State.

At the time each one of those teams was top 50 in the NET Rankings, and Boise State and Colorado State are almost certainly playing in the tournament next week. Furthermore, it showed that the Cowboys know how to win close games, as each of those games were won by a single possession. Winning close games is what March Madness is all about. 

Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike

I will be the first to admit that this is not the most important factor on Selection Sunday, but it would be an absolute travesty to not see the country’s highest scoring duo not playing on the biggest stage in March. Maldonado and Ike have flat out been impressive this year, and they provide a lot of mismatches that would help the Cowboys against other teams in the big dance. Hunter Maldonado is playing as a 6’7” point guard who likes to play out of the post. Not many teams can match up well against a 6’7” point guard.

Graham Ike plays like an old school big man in the modern game. He generally lives in the low post and has the grace and finesse to make all but the stingiest defenders pay, add in the fact that he is left-handed and has a 7’5” wingspan and it makes him a nightmare for opposing coaches to gameplan against. With these two players, the Cowboys play in a very different way as compared to many teams today. Many teams today live and die by the three-point shot, whereas Wyoming lives in the post.

 

Bonus: Even CSU fans know that the Cowboys belong in the Tournament!

 

Tune in to the Tournament Selection show Sunday, March 13th at 4 PM MDT, to find out if the Cowboys make it into the Tournament.


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Mountain West Basketball: Championship Week Bracket Projections

Mountain West Basketball: Final Bracket Projections Four bids, the Mountain West deserves this. Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire We’re here folks, the final bracketology update for the season before Selection Sunday. At the onset of the 2022 …

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Mountain West Basketball: Final Bracket Projections


Four bids, the Mountain West deserves this. 


Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire

We’re here folks, the final bracketology update for the season before Selection Sunday. 

At the onset of the 2022 Mountain West basketball tournament in Las Vegas teams are primed and ready. With Selection Sunday this weekend on March 13th and almost a week away are the First Four matchups of the NCAA Tournament on the 15th and 16th in Dayton. Fans around the Mountain West have stayed honed in this conference’s multi-bid hopes all season, and now they are about to get rewarded.

Colorado State has cracked the top-25 this week for the first time since January 3rd. After losing to UNLV for the second time this season in mid-February. The No. 23 ranked Rams finished the regular season out with a three game winning streak and securing their second win over regular season champions Boise State. to have fallen out of favor with AP Top-25 Poll voters at the moment. While Boise State (49 votes) and San Diego State (26) both received votes in the latest rankings.

Games Last Week 

Monday February 28th

SDSU 73, Wyoming 66

Fresno State 71, New Mexico 68

Tuesday March 1st

Boise State 73, Nevada 67

Air Force 58, San Jose State 54

Wednesday March 2nd

UNLV 64, Wyoming 57

Thursday March 3rd

San Diego State 65, Fresno State 64-2OT

Friday March 4th

Utah State 75 San Jose State 52

Saturday March 5th

Wyoming 68, Fresno State 64-OT

Colorado State 71, Boise State 68

San Diego State 79, Nevada 78

New Mexico 76, UNLV 67

2022 Mountain West Tournament Picks, Projections

In the final regular season KenPom and NET rankings of the year, here is where the Mountain West stands.

There are only three ranked in KenPom’s top-50 but a season high seven teams seven teams total in the top-100. While in the NCAA’s latest NET rankings there are four programs in the top-50 and seven in the top-100 as well.

All of this has led to some very exciting representation among the industry’s most trusted bracketologists’ projections this past week.

Mountain West Conference KenPom Rankings

23-San Diego State

26-Boise State

34-Colorado State

53-Utah State

56-Wyoming

62-Fresno State

85-UNLV

116-Nevada

151-New Mexico

253-Air Force

292-San Jose State

Mountain West Conference NET Rankings

28-Colorado State

29-San Diego State

30-Boise State

48-Wyoming

63-Utah State

69-Fresno State

92-UNLV

124-Nevada

154-New Mexico

253-Air Force

298-San Jose State

The big dance bid glory days for the Mountain West will always be the 2012-2013 season. That year the conference had five teams go dancing, since then the highest total teams sent was three, two seasons later.

CBS SportsPublished March 8th, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 6 Seed-Colorado State

No. 8 Seed-Boise State

No. 9 Seed-Wyoming

No. 9 Seed-San Diego State

CBS Bracketologist Jerry Palm predicts a four-bid all single seeded Mountain West at the moment. With Colorado State predicted to receive the highest seed at No. 6 with several quality wins in conference play in the past few weeks. Palm is also one of the few writers included to not shove Wyoming out into double digit Last Four In designation this past week. In short, i’m hoping for this on Sunday.

ESPNPublished March. 8th, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 7 Seed- Boise State (Automatic Qualifier)

No. 7 Seed-Colorado State

No. 9 Seed-San Diego State

No. 12 Seed-Wyoming

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi features an automatic qualified designation which, he has given to the Mountain West Conference regular season Champion Boise State. That still has to be proven in Las Vegas starting tomorrow against either Nevada or New Mexico.

San Diego State rose three spots in this updated prediction. Going from a No. 12 Last Four in selection with a very solid last week to the regular season. While Wyoming dropped from a No. 9 seed to a No. 12 and last four in designation after dropping 2 out of three games last week.

Heat Check CBBPublished March 8th, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 6 Seed-Colorado State

No. 7 Seed-Boise State

No. 8 Seed-San Diego State

No. 11 Seed-Wyoming

The guys over at Heat Check CBB continue to put out great content and tools like their Tournament Index Ratings. This week Lukas Harkins like others gave the highest seed possible to Colorado State (No. 6) while also keeping Wyoming as a predicted at-large bid but as a No. 11 seed.

Sports IllustratedPublished March 1st, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 7 Seed-Boise State

No. 6 Seed-Colorado State

No. 9 Seed-San Diego State

No. 12 Seed-Wyoming (Last Four In)

Kevin Sweeney’s recent bracketology update pegs a grand total of four teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament by the Sports Illustrated staff writer.

Essentially Kevin swapped the San Diego State double digit seeding and Last Four In designations with Wyoming this past week after the Aztecs regained their late season form with several quality wins this past week as the Cowboys dropped some games.

Bracket Matrix Composite-Updated on March 8th

Total Teams: 4

No. 7 Seed-Colorado State (Avg. 6.77)

No. 8 Seed-Boise State (Avg. 7.84)

No. 9 Seed-San Diego State (Avg. 8.73)

No. 12 Seed-Wyoming (Avg. 11.08)

Bracket Matrix does a great job of giving out a composite seed from nearly eighty different voices and bracketologists around the country. Like others on this update, the Wyoming love has faded just a bit this past week with some losses on the Cowboy’s schedule.

A four-bid Mountain West Conference

A “record” breaking big dance for the Mountain West is coming to fruition before our eyes. With three teams, that is still the ceiling to meet and possibly beat this season. But week after week teams in this conference looks more favorable to secure their spots in the big dance every week.

With most bracketologists predicting four teams in and most pegging them all to receive single seeds, I’m very hopeful.

Here’s to FOUR tickets punched, finger crossed.

Larry Muniz covers college basketball as a writer for Mountain West Wire and WAC Hoops Digest. Also as a co-host of the college basketball podcast “Hoops Talk W/Jay & Larry”. He is also a USWBA Member.

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Mountain West Basketball: March 1st Bracket Projections Round Up

Mountain West Basketball: Bracket Projections Experts predict a higher than average number of MWC teams selected in March. Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire Welcome to March, here’s an update on the conference’s NCAA Tournament bracket …

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Mountain West Basketball: Bracket Projections


Experts predict a higher than average number of MWC teams selected in March. 


Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire

Welcome to March, here’s an update on the conference’s NCAA Tournament bracket projections, looking good for four Mountain West teams. 

It is officially March and NCAA Tournament resumes are looking as strong as they have all season.With Selection Sunday on March 13th almost a week away and the First Four matchups of the NCAA Tournament on the 15th and 16th in Dayton. Fans around the Mountain West have stayed honed in this conference’s multi-bid hopes all season, and now they are about to get rewarded.

Now a little over two weeks away from one of the biggest sporting events of the year. Please teams in contention, no late season blemishes to ruin a possible four-bid Mountain West. Because this late no team in the conference is safe this season from a late season blunder and resulting stain on a resume.

Since our last update Boise State 24-6 (15-2) clinched their first outright Mountain West Conference regular season title ever in their 73-67 win over Nevada at home on Tuesday. Now fighting for seeding are other tournament hopefuls are Colorado State 23-4 (13-4), Wyoming 23-6 (12-4) and San Diego State 19-7 (11-4).

The Cowboys appear to have fallen out of favor with AP Top-25 Poll voters at the moment. But Boise State (56 votes), Colorado State (19) and San Diego State (5) both received votes in the latest rankings.

With one week left to go in the college basketball regular season. There are now only three ranked in KenPom’s top-50 but a season high seven teams seven teams total in the top-100. While in the NCAA’s latest NET rankings there are four programs in the top-50 and seven in the top-100 as well.

All of this has led to some very exciting representation among the industry’s most trusted bracketologists’ projections this past week.

Mountain West Conference KenPom Rankings

22-San Diego State

27-Boise State

31-Colorado State

52-Wyoming

56-Utah State

60-Fresno State

82-UNLV

118-Nevada

156-New Mexico

250-Air Force

286-San Jose State

Mountain West Conference NET Rankings

26-San Diego State

28-Colorado State

29-Boise State

44-Wyoming

67-Fresno State

68-Utah State

92-UNLV

126-Nevada

162-New Mexico

246-Air Force

292-San Jose State

The big dance bid glory days for the Mountain West will always be the 2012-2013 season. That year the conference had five teams go dancing, since then the highest total teams sent was three, two seasons later.

CBS SportsPublished March 2nd, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 6 Seed-Colorado State

No. 8 Seed-Boise State

No. 8 Seed-Wyoming

No. 10 Seed-San Diego State

CBS Bracketologist Jerry Palm predicts the highest Mountain West seed overall with Colorado State as a No. 6 seed. Like others he includes Boise State as a No. 8 seed and also gives Wyoming their highest seed as a No. 8 selection.

Palm has always been a big believer in the conference this season and his latest batch of predictions has fans around the league fully investing in a four-bid Mountain West this month.

ESPNPublished March. 1st, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 8 Seed- Boise State (Automatic Qualifier)

No. 8 Seed-Colorado State

No. 9 Seed-Wyoming

No. 12 Seed-San Diego State (Last Four In)

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi features an automatic qualified designation which, he has given to the Mountain West Conference regular season Champion Boise State. That still has to be proven in Las Vegas in the middle of the month.

ESPN is one of two sites in this article to have San Diego State as a last four in option. That may be more closely linked to the bad run of form from the Aztecs at the end of January going into the beginning of February.

Heat Check CBBPublished March 1st, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 7 Seed-Boise State

No. 7 Seed-Colorado State

No. 9 Seed-San Diego State

No. 10 Seed-Wyoming

The guys over at Heat Check CBB continue to put out great content and tools like their Tournament Index Ratings. This week Lukas Harkins gives way to to an impressive set of predictions for the Mountain West. With two No. 7 seeds in newly crowned regular season champs Boise State joined by Colorado State.

Also the the lone update this week to have he San Diego State Aztecs as a single-digit seed while also being the only site to peg Wyoming as a double-digit seed.

Sports IllustratedPublished March 1st, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 8 Seed-Boise State

No. 10 Seed-Colorado State

No. 11 Seed-Wyoming (First Four Bye)

No. 12 Seed-San Diego State (Last Four In)

Kevin Sweeney’s recent bracketology update pegs a grand total of four teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament by the Sports Illustrated staff writer.

With a bit of worry surrounding the Aztecs still hanging around as a No. 12 seed and last four in designation. Although Brian Dutcher’s have secured some quality wins of late and have the opportunity to secure two more against Fresno State and Nevada in the coming days.

Bracket Matrix Composite-Updated on March 1st

Total Teams: 4

No. 7 Seed-Colorado State (Avg. 7.37)

No. 8 Seed-Boise State (Avg. 7.77)

No. 9 Seed-Wyoming (Avg. 9.04)

No. 10 Seed-San Diego State (Avg. 10.02)

Bracket Matrix does a great job of giving out a composite seed from nearly eighty different voices and bracketologists around the country. Their current math pegs a four-bid Mountain West, with a uniquely predicted Colorado State Rams program as the highest seed. Also including two more single-digit seeded teams in Boise State and Wyoming.

A four-bid Mountain West Conference

A “record” breaking big dance for the Mountain West is coming to fruition before our eyes. With three teams, that is still the ceiling to meet and possibly beat this season. But week after week teams in this conference looks more favorable to secure their spots in the big dance every week.

Here’s to FOUR tickets punched, finger crossed.

Larry Muniz covers college basketball as a writer for Mountain West Wire and WAC Hoops Digest. Also as a co-host of the college basketball podcast “Hoops Talk W/Jay & Larry”. He is also a USWBA Member.

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Mountain West Basketball: NCAA Bracket Projections Round Up

Mountain West Basketball: Bracket Projections Experts predict a higher than average number of MWC teams selected in March. Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire An update on the conference’s NCAA Tournament bracket projections, still looking good …

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Mountain West Basketball: Bracket Projections


Experts predict a higher than average number of MWC teams selected in March.


Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire

An update on the conference’s NCAA Tournament bracket projections, still looking good for four Mountain West teams. 

Fans around the Mountain West have been given a treat this season. In the form of what now looks like a four-bid Mountain West Conference this March. Sorry, no team in the conference is safe this season from a late season blunder and resulting stain on a resume. But at the moment those resumes are stronger than they’ve been in years and most experts are high on the conference as we approach mid-February.

Remember  selection Sunday is on March 13th and slowly inching closer. Along with the First Four matchups of the NCAA Tournament on the 15th and 16th in Dayton.

The Boise State Broncos are currently 18-5 (9-1) and tied for first atop the conference after a 72-65 loss in Laramie to fellow first place holder Wyoming who themselves are 20-3 (9-1). The Cowboys snapped a 14 game Bronco winning streak that game and helped solidify themselves as a potential at-large bid and possible Cinderella next month. With a five game winning streak after splitting that series with Boise State, Jeff Linder’s team is receiving plenty of recognition nationally.

While both Colorado State sitting in third at 18-3 (8-3) and San Diego State sitting in 4th at 14-6 (6-3) in the Mountain West surviving a conference slate that has left them a bit battled and bruised.

The Cowboys who fell out of the AP Top-25 receiving votes section last week is getting all of the love this week. Receiving 82 votes and just missing their first top-25 ranking of the season. While Colorado State and San Diego State appear to have fallen out of favor with AP Top-25 Poll voters at the moment. Wyoming is joined by Boise State (22) as two Mountain West programs receiving votes in the latest rankings.

Now with less than ten regular season games left to go in the conference season. The Mountain West continues to enjoy a fruitful representation among the industry’s trusted rankings and evaluation tools. Since our last update on February 8th, there a season high six teams ranked in KenPom’s top-50 and six teams total in the top-100 with UNLV just missing out at 101.

While the conference’s own strength may be hurting itself in the NCAA’s latest NET rankings with only four programs in the top-50 and six in the top-100. A low for the first time since we began publishing these updates in January.

All of this has led to some very exciting representation among the industry’s most trusted bracketologists’ projections this past week. Although most experts predictions are becoming more and more uniform as the season winds down, and for Mountain West fans that looks like a good thing.

Mountain West Conference KenPom Rankings

29-Boise State

36-Wyoming

31-Utah State

44-San Diego State

45-Fresno State

50-Colorado State

101-UNLV

139-Nevada

142-New Mexico

245-Air Force

285-San Jose State

Mountain West Conference NET Rankings

28-Wyoming

34-Boise State

36-Colorado State

44-Utah State

55-San Diego State

57-Fresno State

110-UNLV

148-Nevada

153-New Mexico

241-Air Force

289-San Jose State

The big dance bid glory days for the Mountain West will always be the 2012-2013 season. That year the conference had five teams go dancing, since then the highest total teams sent was three, two seasons later.

The greedy side of me says “yeah Fresno State or Utah State, please go on a deep run to finish February or win the conference tournament next month” to secure the automatic bid and really make things interesting. But given the league’s history with at-large credibility in recent years I can tell that plan feels a bit risky for some already brittle resumes this late in the season.

CBS SportsPublished Jan. 7th, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 7 Seed-Wyoming

No. 8 Seed-Colorado State

No. 10 Seed-Boise State

No. 10 Seed-San Diego State

CBS Bracketologist Jerry Palm appears is giving the most love to Jeff Linder’s Cowboys so far this update. With Wyoming pegged as a No. 7 seed, but has Boise State as a No. 10 Seed lower than Colorado State as a No. 8 seed. Not to mention San Diego State as a No. 10 seed, the only non 12 seeded prediction thus far for the Aztecs.

Maybe a lot to unpack there, or maybe right on the money. It just feels very nice and reaffirming to see a solid list of seeds and no “Last Four In” designations.

ESPNPublished Feb. 8th, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 8 Seed- Boise State (Automatic Qualifier)

No. 9 Seed-Wyoming

No. 10 Seed-Colorado State

No. 12 Seed-San Diego State (Last Four In)

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest edition of bracketology looks about what many may guess at this moment and time. A climbing Wyoming, a descending San Diego State who may find themselves playing in the NIT if they can’t make a good run to close out the season. Along with the Broncos taking the Mountain West’s automatic qualified and Colorado State nearly missing out on a single-digit seed.

Like I said this looks very in touch with other predictions at the moment but it would be a shame to see San Diego State drop any lower next week.

Heat Check CBBPublished Feb. 3rd, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 7 Seed-Boise State

No. 9 Seed-Wyoming

No. 10 Seed-Colorado State

No. 12 Seed-San Diego State

The guys over at Heat Check CBB continue to put out great content and tools like their Tournament Index Ratings. This week Lukas Harkins gives way to

Sports IllustratedPublished Feb. 8th, 2021

Total Teams: 4

No. 8 Seed-Wyoming

No. 9 Seed-Boise State

No. 10 Seed-Colorado State

No. 12 Seed-San Diego State (Last Four In)

Kevin Sweeney’s latest projections give all credit to the Wyoming Cowboys. With a conference leading No. 8 seed but also San Diego State as a Last Four In possibility. Sweeney was one of first to give way to a four-team Mountain West when we started these updates last month. Now it looks like he was very right all along.

Bracket Matrix Composite-Updated on February 8th

Total Teams: 4

No. 8 Seed-Boise State (Avg. 8.35)

No. 9 Seed-Colorado State (Avg. 9.08)

No. 9 Seed-Wyoming (Avg. 9.17)

No. 12 Seed-San Diego State (Avg. 11.37)

Bracket Matrix does a great job of giving out a composite seed from nearly eighty different voices and bracketologists around the country. Their current math pegs a four team Mountain West with the only projections to give the conference three single-digit seeds. I like the way this looks and I could very much see myself calling in sick the whole first week of games to see this conference finally get some wins in the big dance.

A four-bid Mountain West Conference

Okay although nothing is certain, especially when it comes to something like at-large bids. A “record” breaking big dance for the Mountain West is coming to fruition before our eyes. With three teams, still the ceiling to meet and beat at this point. The conference appears poised to hear four names called on Selection Sunday.

“The talent level, the overall size of the teams, the experience/age of a lot of the teams, and if you add all of those things together with the quality of coaching, you have a recipe for a multi-bid league.’’ said Jeff Linder on the quality of the Mountain West this season.

Now on February 10th, teams continue to sky rocket up KenPom and NET rankings by beating each other week in and week out, three teams in looks like a given. Our hope now is to see four Mountain West teams go dancing.

Here’s to FOUR tickets punched, finger crosse…no, let’s toast it into existence folks.

Larry Muniz covers college basketball as a writer for Mountain West Wire and WAC Hoops Digest. Also as a co-host of the college basketball podcast “Hoops Talk W/Jay & Larry”. He is also a USWBA Member.

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2020 NCAA Tournament Simulation Results Of East Region

2020 NCAA Tournament Simulation Results of East Region First Round is underway. Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire We have our first upset out of the East region and an exciting first day of games. We are joining the herd by simulating a March …

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2020 NCAA Tournament Simulation Results of East Region


First Round is underway. 


Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire

We have our first upset out of the East region and an exciting first day of games. 

We are joining the herd by simulating a March Madness bracket through this month. We are doing ours a touch differently and are not going to just blow out the bracket in a few days. Our plan is to have this going on for probably two or so weeks. In the first few days we will have the first and second rounds done by over the weekend.

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The way we are doing the simulation is through WhatIfSports.com and it will be a one-and-done simulation. Both teams will be played on a neutral floor and we will post the box score and play-by-play info that was generated.

East Region 

Final Score: No. 1 Dayton 80, No. 16 Winthrop 70

Cleveland, OH–They wouldn’t have been the first ever sixteenth seed to pull the upset and everyone was cheering on the favorite instead of the underdog in this one as Dayton won over the hearts of thousands, maybe millions this past season. But that didn’t matter to the Eagles as they made it a close one in Cleveland by avenging a poor first half performance by outscoring the Flyers 45-35 in the second half. It wasn’t enough as they couldn’t dig themselves out of the hole they dug for themselves in the first half. Even though Obi Toppin was relatively quiet with only 12 points and 6 rebounds, Trey Landers led Dayton with 18 points and 7 rebounds to lead the Flyers to the next round.

Final Score: No. 8 Colorado 85, No. 9 Marquette 75

Cleveland, OH–This one seemed close, like most No. 8 vs. No. 9 seeds, the Buffaloes and Golden Eagles played hard. But Markus Howard never got the help he needed pouring in 32 points and Sacar Amin the only other Marquette player in double-digits. Colorado’s attack was a bit more balanced and although they have several guys who can get it done for them, Mckinley Wright IV led them with a double-double consisting of 24 points and 10 rebounds. Tad Boyle’s team moves on with some confidence after a double-digit win over one of the best scorers in the country.

Final Score: No. 5 Auburn 84, No. 12 Cincinnati 73

Sacramento, CA–Auburn usually plays some of their best basketball in the tournament and are looking for an encore performance to their Final Four appearance last year. Cincinnati attempted the upset but struggled in the first half and turned the ball over seventeen times. J’von McCormick led the Tigers with 15 points but had help as Auburn advances with their net cutting aspirations still alive.

Final Score:No. 4 Wisconsin 93, No. 13 North Texas 87

Sacramento, CA–Wisconsin surprised everyone coming in at the No. 4 seed as they looked like a team set to miss the tournament back in beginning of the season. They didn’t disappoint, receiving double-digit scoring from six different players. But it was big man Nate Reuvers who led them with 19 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocked shots. North Texas played a tough game and almost became the first double-digit seed to get an upset behind 29 points from junior guard Javion Hamlet. The Badgers move on but a little shook up from a close 6-point victory.

Final Score: No. 6 Iowa 82, No. 11 Utah State 73

Greensboro, NC–Our first Mountain West team in the East is Utah State and though they kept the first half deficit to just one point, they couldn’t seal the deal as double-teaming Sam Merrill in the final minutes proved to be effective. Brock Miller led the Aggies as the team’s hot hand in this one with 21 points while finding space on the perimeter with all eyes on Merrill. Luke Garza seemed to be the difference maker in this one as he finished with 23 points and 9 rebounds showing poise against one of the better frontcourts in the Mountain West. The Hawkeyes advance, expecting a match up against the Blue Devils in the next round, barring a Belmont upset of course.

Final Score: No. 3 Duke 83, No. 14 Belmont 74

Greensboro, NC–Belmont was on everyone’s list of possible Cinderella’s and it’s quite understandable. But they were going up against the Duke Blue Devils who didn’t plan on being a part of their fairy tail story. The Blue Devil’s are young but talented and were led by freshman Cassius Stanley who chipped in 17 points in this 11-point win. The Bruins didn’t make it easy but were just out shot from every spot on the field and out rebounded 45-34. Coach K’s team moves on as they look to go further than last March, and that means a Final Four appearance.

Final Score: No. 10 Arizona State 83, No. 7 Houston 67 

Albany, NY–The first upset in the region came in the No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 seed match up of the No.7 Houston Cougars against the No. 10 Arizona State Sun Devils. Houston and head coach Kelvin Sampson have had a great season led by Freshman guard Caleb Mills and a balanced supporting cast. This didn’t turn out how Cougar fans might have wanted as a tough shooting night for Houston’s stars might have been their downfall against a hot handed Rob Edwards who finished the night with 25 points after going 6-11 from deep. Arizona State advances to face the winner of Villanova and Northern Kentucky later in the day, hoping for a Norse upset to avoid facing one of the best coaches in March Madness history in Jay Wright.

Final Score: No. 2 Villanova 84, No. 15 Northern Kentucky 74

Albany, NY–Jay Wright’s teams always perform well in March and even though this one was closer than they would have wanted they move on with a 10-point win over the Norse of Northern Kentucky. The Norse keep their tournament ticket this year under first year head coach Darrin Horn and keep it close but hot hand and former Louisville Cardinal Tyler Sharpe couldn’t do it alone as he finishes the night with 18 points. Villanova found their production in Jermaine Samuels in this one as he ends the night with a team high 16 points to help the Wildcats advance on after a double-digit win over a dangerous Northern Kentucky team.

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NCAA Bracketology Update: San Diego State predicted as 2-seed.

NCAA Bracketology Update: San Diego State predicted as 2-seed. San Diego State Drops to a 2-seed in most brackets – Contact/Follow @ErwinSports and @MWCwire. Somehow, the Aztecs might get their March wish. After falling to UNLV at home in the …

NCAA Bracketology Update: San Diego State predicted as 2-seed.


San Diego State Drops to a 2-seed in most brackets


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Contact/Follow @ErwinSports and @MWCwire.

Somehow, the Aztecs might get their March wish.

After falling to UNLV at home in the regular season, the Utah State Aggies took advantage of that game plan and stunned San Diego State on Saturday

Utah State went from a bubble team to gifting the Mountain West 2-bids on Selection Sunday.

San Diego State has now been projected as a 2-seed in the West regional in most brackets, and especially in the eyes of Jerry Palm of CBS and Joe Lunardi of ESPN. Plus, the composite at BracketMatrix.

With San Diego State’s 2nd loss this season coupled with an unstoppable Dayton team in A10 play, it’s looking bleak the Aztecs rise to a 1-seed.

Unfortunate or fortunate?

Brian Dutcher has been on the record to covet playing as west as possible for his team.

“I want to stay West,” said Brian Dutcher to the San Diego Union-Tribune in early February “and play our way to Staples Center somehow and see if we can’t fill that building with Aztecs fans.”

With no chance of gaining a game on Gonzaga this coming week, the Zags look to lock up their path to L.A. via two games in Spokane, Washington.

The Aztecs were on track to play in Sacramento but instead of playing in Madison Square Garden, they get rerouted to the Staples Center. They would be closer to their fan base, their alumni base, and their recruiting hotbed.

With a week away from Selection Sunday, all the Aztecs can do is practice, go to class, and then show up on TV looking surprised when they receive a 2-seed in the West.

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NCAA Bracketology: Is San Diego State Still a #1 Seed?

San Diego State fell from the ranks of the unbeaten over the weekend, but did they also lose their spot as a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

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NCAA Bracketology: Is San Diego State Still a #1 Seed?


Comparing the Aztecs’ resume to other top teams


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

SDSU has just one loss, but did they just lose their spot on the one line?

For months, as San Diego State’s unbeaten streak grew and grew, the Aztecs became more comfortable with the idea of being a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

But after Saturday’s loss to UNLV, Brian Dutcher’s club has fallen from the annals of history—but perhaps not from the top line. With the top six teams having separated themselves to this point of the season, and with four of those teams losing last week, the debate surrounding the top seeds is growing to a fever pitch.

In order to determine whether the Aztecs should retain their place on the one-line, let’s take a gander at how they stack up against the other teams in the conversation. But any investigation of a team’s case starts with their own resume.

San Diego State

San Diego State still has the fewest losses in the country after Gonzaga and Baylor also incurred defeats over the weekend. They have 25 wins against Division I opponents, including a perfect 9-0 record in games falling in the NCAA’s Quadrants 1 and 2.

The Aztecs also went 4-0 against their Quadrant 1 opponents—even more impressively, all four of those games were played away from Viejas Arena.

Their opening week win over BYU has aged beautifully, as has a Thanksgiving break romp over Creighton and Iowa in which San Diego State won both games by a combined 41 points. A January win in Logan over Utah State was the only truly valuable win for the Aztecs in league play.

As of Monday night, San Diego State was ranked in the top ten of every major advanced metric except the Kevin Pauga Index, which primarily rewards teams that play difficult schedules.

That brings up the question of the Aztecs’ schedule.

Their season-long strength of schedule is rated outside of the top 100 nationally. Before blaming that on their playing in a middling Mountain West conference, note that San Diego State’s non-conference SOS is also outside the top 100.

This aspect of San Diego State’s resume is their weakest, but it’s still a very strong profile. The real question is: how does it stack up against the other teams in the mix for a top spot?

The Competition

For ease of argument, let’s say that Kansas and Baylor have locked in two of the #1 seeds already. Each of those teams boasts ten-plus wins in Quadrant 1. They are ranked 1-2 in five of six metrics, with only the BPI ranking the Bears outside of the top two.

They’re pretty much locked in at this point, barring some unforeseen disaster.

But after the Big 12’s big two, the conversation opens up quite a bit.

Currently, the main competitors facing off with the Aztecs for those last two spots on the top seed line are Gonzaga, Duke, and Dayton. Others such as Maryland, Florida State, and Creighton might still have an outside shot at getting a top seed, but they are all currently on a tier just below the top six.

For now, we’ll focus on the three teams bunched most closely with San Diego State, starting with the team that is geographically closest to them.

Gonzaga

Of the quartet, Gonzaga likely has the strongest case to get a #1 seed. The Bulldogs are 27-2 and their only losses have come against NCAA tournament locks BYU and Michigan. While it may be tempting to compare the Zags’ loss to BYU against San Diego State’s win over the Cougars, bear in mind that star big man Yoeli Childs was not in action against the Aztecs. (Also, Gonzaga crushed the Cougars in the first matchup, winning 92-69 in Spokane. That seems important.)

Gonzaga has the edge in the analytics over San Diego State, rating higher in every major metric except for KPI, where the Zags are one spot behind the Aztecs at #15. So, that’s a check in the win column for the Bulldogs.

But while the computers may prefer Gonzaga, their best wins are no better than SDSU’s. They both have wins over BYU, and while the Zags also have wins away from home over Oregon, Arizona, and Saint Mary’s, the Aztecs’ wins over Creighton, Iowa, and Utah State are just as good or better.

The similarities between Gonzaga and San Diego State don’t stop there.

The average NET ranking of San Diego State’s triumphs is 158, the second-worst number among the handful of teams vying for a #1 seed. Only Gonzaga’s average NET win is worse, at 163.

It’s hard to tease the two teams apart. Their respective resumes have similar strengths and weaknesses, so any argument against one team can likely be used against the other. For the moment, though, Gonzaga’s edge in the computer rankings likely has them ahead of the Aztecs by a nose.

Dayton

Dayton is also in that neighborhood, with their average NET win coming in at 140. The Flyers have played a tougher schedule than either the Aztecs or Zags, but they lack a true marquee victory. There were chances for glory, most notably in neutral-site games against Kansas and Colorado, but Dayton fell to both in overtime.

Their best wins have come against some of the country’s best mid-major programs, including Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, Richmond, VCU, and Saint Louis. They also scored wins over top 100 programs in Virginia Tech and Georgia.

But while Dayton’s wins might not jump off the page, the Flyers do perform well in the computer rankings. As of Monday night, they were ranked in the top four of both the KPI (#3) and the NET (#4). That’s higher than San Diego State ranks in any metric, although it does bear mentioning that the Aztecs do better than Dayton in predictive ratings such as KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI.

Led by potential Naismith winner Obi Toppin, the Flyers are very fun to watch. But without a signature win to hang their hat on, it’s hard to see them surpassing Gonzaga or San Diego State in the race for a #1 seed—especially with the rest of the Atlantic 10 faltering down the stretch. No matter who Dayton draws in the A-10 Tournament, they won’t get another opponent that compares to the top wins of the top six.

Duke

That just leaves Duke. Do the Blue Devils have what it takes to steal a spot on the top line?

Mike Krzyzsewski has another winner on his hands in Durham, with Duke currently sitting at 23-4 on the season. The Blue Devils have one of the best wins available this season, and they got it on opening night when they beat Kansas during the Champions Classic in Indianapolis. Only Baylor’s victory over the Jayhawks in Lawrence is better, on paper.

Duke also holds a home victory over Florida State and a road win against Michigan State. Their trio of top wins outclasses San Diego State’s grouping of Creighton, BYU, and Iowa. Still, like the Aztecs, the Blue Devils have just four Quadrant 1 wins.

Duke also joins SDSU as the only teams in the top six that have a Q3 loss.

The Blue Devils’ much-maligned home loss to Stephen F. Austin has actually aged quite gracefully, moving from Quadrant 4 to being a borderline Quadrant 2 game. While the Lumberjacks would still need to climb at least dozen spots in NET rankings to move this game up to Q2, they are currently about 25 spots higher in the NET than UNLV is.

Coach K also has the advantage in the analytics, with his team averaging out to be a top 5 team across the six major metrics. They are currently #1 in the BPI, and their lowest ranking is a #9 placement in ESPN’s Strength of Resume measurement. They are also in the top four of both the KenPom and KPI rankings.

The differences between the teams are quite slim. One of the main distinguishing factors that plays in San Diego State’s favor is that, while the Aztecs are undefeated against top competition, Duke has three losses in Quadrant 1. They have had more opportunities for such games, but the road losses to NC State and Clemson might be an anchor that keeps Duke from rising to the top.

That said, the ACC Tournament could provide the Blue Devils with plenty of opportunities for high-quality wins, so winning out could earn them a #1 bid. It remains to be seen which of the western teams they would push out—Gonzaga or San Diego State?

The Verdict

In view of the explanations above, here is how the selection committee might currently view the top six teams:

  1. Kansas
  2. Baylor
  3. Gonzaga
  4. San Diego State
  5. Duke
  6. Dayton

As of right now, as long as San Diego State wins out and takes home the MWC Tournament title, they should hold on to the #1 seed that they earned with their incredible start to the season. The same can be said for Gonzaga. Those teams are the front-runners for the final two spots on the top line right now. The Bulldogs’ edge in the computer rankings likely has them sitting ahead of SDSU at the moment.

The biggest threat to the Aztecs’ top seeding, then, will be Duke. The Blue Devils could possibly surpass SDSU (and/or Gonzaga) if they win the ACC Tournament and score wins over Louisville and Florida State in the process. Dayton is also still in the conversation thanks to a great record, good metrics, and one of the most electrifying players in the country.

But for San Diego State, the mandate to earn a #1 seed is clear: win and you’re in.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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NCAA Tournament Projections: Where Are Mountain West Teams?

San Diego State seems safe as a one seed.

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Is San Diego State still a 1 seed?


Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown.

Well, it happened. San Diego State took their first L of the season. They lost to UNLV 66-63 at home. At the moment it is a Quad 3 loss, and it will likely remain that way. The fear among SDSU fans has been that an in loss conference, especially at home, would seriously hurt their odds at a No. 1 seed and probably drop them down a line if not two lines.

Checking in over at bracketmatrix.com, we find that so far those fears have so far been unwarranted. SDSU is still projected to be the fourth 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, making them the No. 1 seed in the East. The gap between them and the 5th team has narrowed considerably though. SDSU’s average seed is 1.50, whereas Duke’s average seed is 1.81, and Dayton’s is 1.88.

Joe Lunardi recently wrote that if a team like Duke, Dayton, or a couple other teams were to win their regular season and/or conference tournament titles, they could possibly pass SDSU for the final No. 1 seed. For now, though, a top seed is San Diego State’s to lose.

It does reopen the debate over whether it would be better to be a No. 1 seed in the east or a No. 2 seed in the west. The 1 seed would have easier match ups, whereas with a No. 2 seed SDSU would basically have home court advantage through the Elite 8, should they make it that far. San Diego State fans shouldn’t root for another loss, but if Joe Lunardi is right maybe they should root for Duke or Dayton to keep winning and surpass them? It’s up for each fan to decide of course.

There’s also the slim possibility that Gonzaga could slip up in their final couple of games and SDSU could pass them for the 1 seed in the West. It is highly unlikely, but technically not impossible.

The only other team to have a projection at BracketMatrix.com is Utah State. They seem to be in control of their own destiny, and most experts I’ve read agree that if they win out except for a possible MW championship game against SDSU, they’d get an at-large bid. They are currently projected as an 11 seed to face one of Iowa, Michigan, Arizona, or Ohio State.

Utah State’s biggest challenge may be if they face Nevada in the Tournament. Jalen Harris is playing out of his mind and when a team shoots the ball as well as Nevada does (9th in the Nation in 3pt. %) they can hang around with anyone in the league. If anyone could steal a bid to the NCAA Tournament, it would be Nevada.

Bracket Matrix doesn’t include an NIT projection, but DRatings.com does, so I went there to see what other MW teams are gaining traction. They project 4 Mountain West teams to make the NIT. They have Boise St. as a 4 seed, Nevada as a 5 seed, Colorado State as a 7 seed, and UNLV as an 8 seed.

With any luck, one or two of those teams can make a run and use that momentum to improve next year and get an extra team in to the big dance.

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Can The Aztecs Become The NCAA Tournament’s Overall #1 Seed?

If SDSU continues to win decisively and run the Mountain West Tournament, it is in fact possible to surpass Baylor, Gonzaga and Kansas.

Can The Aztecs Become The NCAA Tourney’s Overall #1 Seed?


There’s a strong possibility the Aztecs will close out the season undefeated.  Can they overcome the remaining top seeded teams?


Contact/Follow @tedmcgovern & @MWCwire

The NCAA has projected the Aztecs to be #1 seed in the East bracket, but can they become top seed in the West- and overall?

San Diego, CA- The Aztecs are having a special season, well into February as the only still undefeated Division I team. There is a case to be made that an undefeated San Diego State team could be worthy of an overall #1 seed.

Currently, they are #1 in the Net rankings, and for three consistent weeks they’ve been ranked #4 in both the AP and the Coaches Poll, and they are a clear consensus #1 seed.

But if teams were selected for the NCAA tournament today as they currently stand, the Aztecs will travel all the way to New York City to play in Madison Square Garden, with Duke (20-3) as a #2 seed.

The NCAA presented their projected brackets on Saturday, February 8th, well before the 68 teams making the NCAA tournament are finalized.  Final Tournament seeding is revealed on Selection Sunday on March 15, and the Final Four is slated for March 27-29 in Atlanta.

Here are Andy Katz’s current projections.

Andy Katz's predicted 2020 NCAA tournament bracket

 

Nobody disputes that #1 Baylor was the clear choice for the No. 1 overall seed. The Bears have spent the past three weeks at No. 1 in the AP Top 25. Baylor is listed as the top seed in the South Region in Houston with Louisville, Seton Hall and Auburn.

#3 Kansas was the second overall seed and is currently top seed in the Midwest Region in Indianapolis with Dayton, Florida State and Michigan State.

#2 Gonzaga was the third overall seed and is currently top seed in the West Region in Los Angeles with West Virginia, Villanova and Oregon.

Gonzaga so far has edged San Diego State out of the West, and because of it, the Aztecs are top seed in the East Region in New York with Duke, Maryland and Butler.

The Aztecs have never been a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.  Their highest rank came nearly a decade ago, when the Kawhi Leonard– led team earned a No. 2 spot in the West Region in the 2011 NCAA Tourney.

With Gonzaga rated third overall, they head to the West Regional at Staples Center in Los Angeles for the tournament’s second weekend while the Aztecs would travel 2,400 miles east.

#2 seed in the East, Duke, has a long history and following at MSG.

The big question for 24-0 SDSU is this: can it get ahead of 25-1 Gonzaga to secure the West Region’s top seed- and can it possibly get ahead of all remaining teams to become overall top seed?

The NCAA committee ranks teams in each of top four seed lines and then goes down the list, sending them to the closest geographic region. Unless things shift dramatically only the Zags and Aztecs will seek the West Region.

Right now, right or wrong, the Zags have the high ground.

In the meantime, the Aztecs will need to keep winning.

The Aztecs also need a Zags loss to surpass them.  It can happen- although Gonzaga just routed St. Mary’s by 30 points- who most consider the second best team in the West Coast Conference.  They face St. Mary’s again, as well as a scrappy BYU team.

As for the overall top two seeds: both Baylor and Kansas face challenging Big 12 opponents ahead including #13 West Virginia.  The two also face off against each other– so one team between the two will register one more loss

Duke Athletic Director Kevin White is the chair of the selection committee.  When he was asked why they put Gonzaga above SDSU, he replied, “It’s such a fine line. I think at the end of the day across the 10-member committee, it was the fact that the Zags had two really good wins, we thought, maybe better wins over Arizona and Oregon. At the end of the day, that’s kind of the way things fell.”

Duke was the committee’s fifth overall team.  White confirmed that the top seeds were “Unanimous” and mentioned there was a bit of a separation between four (Aztecs) and five (Duke). “We clearly delineated those four as the top four.”

Kentucky Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart, the committee’s vice chair, noted: “There was no question that San Diego State was a No. 1 seed. They’ve had a remarkable year. A couple of us had an opportunity to watch San Diego State in person when we were on the West Coast for the NCAA Convention and they were incredibly impressive. They have obviously had a wonderful, wonderful start to their season. It was razor close between Gonzaga and San Diego State.”

There is more conference basketball yet to play.  It’s an increasing sentiment that San Diego State has a good opportunity to end the season undefeated.  If this holds true, then Baylor, Kansas and Gonzaga will have to conclude the season without any upsets or key losses to remain in the top three.

Becoming the overall #1 is a real possibility.  Time will tell.

 

NCAA Bracketology: Update On San Diego State’s Quest Fo A No. 1 Seed

What’s the national consensus on SDSU’s status as a 1 seed? Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown. A couple weeks ago I wrote a piece about if San Diego State could possibly get a one seed. With a couple more games out of the way, it’s time to look at it …

[jwplayer 18QegcJn-sNi3MVSU]


What’s the national consensus on SDSU’s status as a 1 seed?


Contact/Follow @aztecbreakdown.

A couple weeks ago I wrote a piece about if San Diego State could possibly get a one seed. With a couple more games out of the way, it’s time to look at it again.

For those that are unaware, bracketmatrix.com is a website that takes a bunch of bracket projections and puts them all in one place. So far it consists of 96 different experts and websites. These sources all have different methodologies and biases behind them.

For example, some show you what they think the bracket would look like if the season ended today. Others account for likely wins and losses and project what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday. Neither method is wrong, they just focus on different things. With that, lets see what Bracket Matrix has to say about this years Aztecs team.

As I’m writing this, the Aztecs have an average seed of 1.54, which is fourth best in the nation. So they are projected to be the last 1 seed. The teams above them are Kansas (1.03), Baylor (1.04),  and Gonzaga (1.26). Duke is close on the Aztecs heels, with an average seed of 1.76.

The lowest projection the Aztecs have received is as a 6 seed, with 2 separate sites projecting that.

Despite the Aztecs currently being projected as a 1 seed, as Duke continues to win games I would expect their average to rise, simply due to playing greater competition. That would drop SDSU down to a No. 2 seed.

That is also going on the assumption that San Diego State doesn’t lose a game between now and Selection Sunday. Some of these projections have already factored in a loss or two, so the Aztecs losing a game won’t change all of the predictions. With the quality of competition remaining though, a loss at just about any point would likely take the Aztecs out of the running for a 1 seed.

For Aztec fans, the goal should be to get into the West region, as a top 4 seed. If the Aztecs play in the west region they can play the first weekend in Sacramento, and the second weekend (if they make it that far) in Los Angeles. So a 2 seed in the West region would be better than a 1 seed in any other region. The best case scenario for Aztec fans is for Gonzaga to lose a game or two while SDSU remains undefeated, that way the Aztecs can stay in the West and Gonzaga can play in another region or drop down a seed.

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