Tag: Neemias Queta

Miraculous comeback by Boise State sinks Aggies’ at-large hopes

RayJ Dennis scored all of his career-high 19 points in the final 3:23 of regulation as Boise State fought back from a late 19-point deficit.

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Game Recap: Boise St. 88, Utah St. 83 (OT)

Broncos erase 19-point deficit in stunning fashion

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

High drama in Boise means high stress for Utah State

It seemed for all the world that Utah State was moving past its early struggles in the Mountain West, leading comfortably in Boise with just a few minutes to play.

But a late Boise State surge propelled the Broncos to one of the most unlikely wins of the season in college basketball, the home team escaping with an 88-83 overtime win in ExtraMile Arena.

Freshman guard RayJ Dennis led the comeback charge for Boise State, scoring all of his career-high 19 points in the final three-plus minutes of regulation. Dennis shot 5-for-5, including four three-pointers. He was also a perfect 5-for-5 at the free throw stripe.

It was one of the most electrifying individual performances of the season—not just in the MW, but in the nation—and it came from one of the most unassuming players on the court.

This win wasn’t just unlikely—it was all but impossible.

According to Ken Pomeroy, the win probability for Utah State (14-6, 3-4 MW) peaked at 98.8% after Justin Bean’s free throws put them up 18 points with 4:10 remaining. The Broncos’ 0.2% shot at victory was about as slim as it gets.

But on some nights, college basketball simply refuses to be penned in by such limits.

Utah State’s collapse spoiled a season-high scoring night from its star player, Sam Merrill, who finished with 30 points on the night. Bean had a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds, and Neemias Queta added 12 points before fouling out, but those performances weren’t enough to stave off the Broncos’ late push.

The gut-wrenching loss may be the final straw that breaks the back—and heart—of the Aggies.

With just over six minutes to play in regulation, Queta hit two free throws to give the Aggies a 62-43 lead over Boise State, matching the Aggies’ largest lead of the game at 19 points. Over the next two minutes, the Broncos only managed to chisel one point off of that deficit, with Utah State leading 66-48 with four minutes to play.

Then it happened.

RJ Williams drew a foul on Queta, the fifth of the game for the Portuguese sophomore. Over its next few possessions, Utah State alternated between missed shots and turnovers, resulting in a 14-0 run for Boise State that cut the Aggie lead to four points with one minute remaining.

After two Abel Porter free throws with eight seconds to play, Utah State held a 75-70 lead and looked like they would be able to survive Boise State’s big haymaker.

But Dennis came down and capped off his out-of-the-blue explosion, nailing a three-pointer with four seconds remaining.

Boise State’s comeback hinged on forcing one last turnover.

Justinian Jessup didn’t disappoint.

The senior sharpshooter was able to intercept Diogo Brito’s inbounds pass, and he quickly layed the the ball in with 1.3 seconds on the clock, tying the game at 75.

The two teams would take that scoreline with them into overtime. With the wind fully at their backs, Boise State drew first blood in the extra period—and never gave the lead back.

Jessup and Williams both finished in double figures for the Broncos, with Derrick Alston also chipping in 19 to tie Dennis for the team-high in scoring.

The win moves Boise State (12-6, 4-4 MW) to .500 in league play—something Utah State can no longer claim. The Broncos have had issues with depth at times this year, but the big plays out of RayJ Dennis and Max Rice down the stretch is a sign of growth for Leon Rice’s bench.

It’s a step in the right direction for a Broncos team coming off two straight losses to San Diego State and Air Force. Consistency hasn’t been this team’s strong suit this season, but any indications of progress are encouraging. If nothing else, it seems unlikely that Boise State will repeat its dismal showing in the Mountain West after last season’s mess.

For the Aggies, the loss not only hands them a losing record in conference play—it might have completely dashed any remaining hopes that Utah State had to get an at-large bid in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Craig Smith’s team came into the season with massive expectations, but the Aggies have fallen well short of them. Utah State was pegged to win the league going away, with San Diego State a distant second in the league. Questions lingered about how the team would fare with Queta on the mend from a summer knee injury, but a 7-0 start to the season for the Aggies quelled those fears.

But since Thanksgiving, that narrative has been completely flipped on its head, with Utah State going just 7-6 in games since their holiday trip to Montego Bay for the Jamaica Classic. And things are getting worse in 2020, with the Aggies having won just one game in five tries so far in the new year. Those games include losses to Air Force and UNLV.

Even on the road, those were games the Aggies were supposed to win.

At this point, preseason projections have to be thrown out. Though it’s not entirely clear what is wrong with the Aggies, they are nowhere near where the prognosticators—myself included—thought they would be.

The Aztecs, meanwhile, are still standing as the last undefeated team in the nation.

Utah State does hold wins over LSU and Florida, but those victories won’t be enough to buoy the Aggies’ chances at getting an at-large bid. At this point, they may need to run the table the rest of the way to have a shot at one. Failing that, Utah State’s only way forward will likely be through the Mountain West Tournament.

They will have plenty of competition there, though, with San Diego State having already all but locked up their ticket to the Big Dance. No other team in the league can make such a claim, so the stakes will be enormous at the Thomas & Mack Center in March.

Let’s hope that all of those games can be exciting as this one was.

UP NEXT

Boise State: The Broncos will have something of a light week compared to their recent forays against SDSU, Air Force, and Utah State. On Saturday, Boise State hosts Fresno State (6-12, 2-5 MW), who has struggled to the tune of a 2-5 start in league play. The Bulldogs have weapons, though. Leon Rice would do well to remind his team not to rest on their laurels, especially with no midweek game to keep them sharp.

Utah State: The Aggies will look to right the ship at home against Air Force (9-10, 3-4 MW). Remember: this team beat the Aggies by 19 points just two weeks ago. The Falcons’ offense has been impressive behind the play of Ryan Swan and Lavelle Scottie, but Dave Pilipovich has yet to field a consistent winner on the year. Utah State will also host San Jose State (6-13, 2-5 MW) next Saturday.

It’s not a stretch to say that these are must-win games for Utah State if they are to have any hope at getting into the NCAA Tournament through the front door.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Utah State snaps losing streak at home against Nevada

Game Recap: Nevada Wolf Pack at Utah State Aggies The Aggies come up big at home against the Wolf Pack Contact/Follow @MWCwire Queta and the Aggies snap 3 game losing streak. Craig Smith, the players, and the fans are breathing a sigh of relief …

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Game Recap: Nevada Wolf Pack at Utah State Aggies 

The Aggies come up big at home against the Wolf Pack

Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Queta and the Aggies snap 3 game losing streak. 

Craig Smith, the players, and the fans are breathing a sigh of relief after Utah State snapped a three game losing streak beating Nevada 80-70. The Wolf Pack never led throughout the entire contest as the Aggies took an early 3-0 lead and never looked back.

The Aggies led 32-23 at half time and quickly pushed the lead up to double digits for the remainder of the game.

Neemias Queta had his best game of the season finishing with 19 points and 7 rebounds.  Queta has played sparingly this season due to injury.  The Aggies ran two set plays over and over resulting in bucket after bucket for Queta.  Nevada didn’t make the needed adjustments in order to shut him down and Utah State took advantage.

Sporting a nice black eye, Sam Merrill finished the game with 12 points, 8 assists, and 8 rebounds.  Merrill has struggled from the field over the past 4 games but the 87% free throw shooter always seems to find a way to score.  Brock Miller, Abel Porter, and Diogo Brito all scored in double digits for the Aggies.

Jalen Harris led the Wolf Pack with 31 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists.  The junior guard is leading the Wolf Pack in scoring this season.  Harris hit 5 threes and made 8-9 free throws.  This was Harris’ 8th game this season scoring 20 or more points and his 2nd game with 30 or more. Jazz Johnson, the other high scorer for the Wolf Pack, finished the game with 18 points.  Johnson struggled for most of the game before exploding during the last few minutes of the game.

Up Next:

The Aggies travel to Boise next Saturday to take on Boise State.

The Wolf Pack returns to Reno for a matchup against Wyoming on Tuesday night.

Sideline Notes:

No fire extinguisher cabinets were harmed before, during, or after the game.

Utah State snapped the worst losing streak in the Craig Smith era.

Nevada now sports a 2 game losing streak for only the 2nd time this season.

Nevada falls to 3-2 in conference while Utah State levels out at 3-3.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak

It was back to non-conference play last week for the Mountain West. Not everybody was in action—and some who were now wish they hadn’t been.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak

The top two stand pat, but plenty of movement below

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

New Mexico, Boise State climbing in the latest DPI rankings for Week 7

It was back to non-conference play last week for the league’s affiliate members on the heels of the opening salvo to the long Mountain West season. Not everybody was in action—and some now wish they hadn’t been.

But it wasn’t all misery.

Some teams are making big strides, including one squad trying to make a move into the uppermost echelon of the MWC.

Below are the DPI rankings heading into the heart of Week 7. If you’re new to the rankings or just want a refresher, head here for a rundown of how the DPI is calculated. The ratings below reflect games played through Tuesday, December 17. As always, non-Division I games are not counted in the DPI.

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#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

Last Week: #1

The Aztecs moved to the #1 spot in the Mountain West last week and with no games since their close shave against San Jose State, they haven’t moved much up or down. Brian Dutcher’s team is still undefeated and boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Malachi Flynn’s star turn has propelled SDSU into the national polls, along with the play of Matt Mitchell, Yanni Wetzell, and Jordan Schakel. If KJ Feagin can provide a little more offense, this team could really turn in a special season.

#2 — UTAH STATE AGGIES

Last Week: #2

It’s been a bit of a rough patch for the Aggies over the past few games. They still have one of the two best rosters in the league, but they aren’t quite living up to preseason expectations so far. After losing to Saint Mary’s and looking underwhelming in their first two Mountain West games, Utah State fell to BYU on Saturday in Salt Lake City. It was only their second loss, but it’s a missed opportunity for a good out-of-conference win to put on their NCAA Tournament resume.

#3 — NEW MEXICO LOBOS

Last Week: #4

The Lobos have won six straight after toppling New Mexico State and Grand Canyon since the last DPI rankings were posted here. Though they aren’t playing at the level of SDSU just yet, this patchwork roster of homegrown talent and incoming transfers has performed admirably in the early going. JaQuan Lyle has been everything that Paul Weir could have wanted and more. Oh, and Carlton Bragg is averaging a double-double. So far, so good.

#4 — NEVADA WOLF PACK

Last Week: #3

The Wolf Pack looked like they were starting to turn a corner over the past few weeks, winning five straight games on either side of Thanksgiving. But last week, Nevada was the second casualty of BYU’s surge, along with Utah State and UNLV. The offense had been clicking on all cylinders, but immediately downshifted from a 100-point performance against Air Force to a 42-point outing against the Cougars. That kind of volatility that makes it tough to trust Steve Alford’s club.

#5 — BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Last Week: #6

Leon Rice is getting things back on track in Boise, but outside of their win over BYU—before Yoeli Childs came back, of course—the Broncos haven’t really beaten anybody. It was another rocky showing for Boise State last week, with a midweek loss to Tulsa preceding a blowout win over Alabama State. Derrick Alston is averaging 21 points and Justinian Jessup is finding his form. But the starting five is not the problem here; Rice’s team suffers from a lack of depth.

#6 — COLORADO STATE RAMS

Last Week: #5

The Rams jumped out to a promising start, but they’ve lost three of their past four games, including both of their opening Mountain West bouts. Mixed in there was a 72-68 win over South Dakota State, and while the Jackrabbits are not a bad squad by any means, that they played CSU so closely gives a good indication of where the Rams are right now. Niko Medved’s team gave in-state rivals Colorado a run for their money, but ultimately fell 56-48 over the weekend.

#7 — AIR FORCE FALCONS

Last Week: #8

The defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but recently, the Falcons have been getting better results than they did during a rough November. The new month has been kinder to the cadets, with Air Force winning four of its past five (Note: Tuesday’s 99-42  win over Johnson & Wales is not counted in the DPI). AJ Walker has taken an important step forward as an offensive option. The sophomore was averaging 20 points per game over the past three games coming into Tuesday.

#8 — FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

Last Week: #10

Justin Huston finally got his team to a second Division I win on Saturday against Cal Poly. But the bigger story here is the seven losses that they have already incurred. Nate Grimes is doing exactly what was expected of him so far, averaging a double-double with 13.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per night. Guards Jarred Hyder and New Williams both have some good performances under their belts, but they haven’t been able to click at the same time. That needs to change.

#9 — UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS

Last Week: #9

The Rebels didn’t play last week, so the bad taste of the 33-point loss to BYU back has been lingering for a week and a half. There have been a lot of close calls, with UNLV playing in four separate overtime games so far. They are shooting under 42% from the field and turning the ball over 15 times a night. Games against Pacific and Robert Morris this week offer TJ Otzelberger the chance to start making some headway in his first year at the helm.

#10 — WYOMING COWBOYS

Last Week: #7

Allen Edwards got his Cowboys out to a 3-3 start, but they have dropped five straight games, including their most recent defeat at the hands of Northern Colorado. The Bears didn’t just sneak past Wyoming, either—the Big Sky hopefuls handed the home team a 21-point drubbing at Arena-Auditorium. The defense has been fair to middling, but the offense has been dreadful thus far. The Cowboys are shooting under 50% on two-pointers and just over 30% on threes.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE SPARTANS

Last Week: #11

There’s a bit of a running joke around here about which Spartan is most likely to transfer next year, since the sputtering Spartans have seen five double-digit scorers depart in the past three offseasons—including Brandon Clarke, who parlayed his post-SJSU star turn at Gonzaga into a budding NBA career. All jokes aside, Seneca Knight has separated himself as the Spartans’ top option, scoring 12.5 points per game. Hopefully the sophomore can remain an important building block for Jean Prioleau.

That’s it for this week. Check back next week to see who’s rising and falling in the Mountain West and be sure to visit the Dieckhoff Power Index daily for updated rankings on all 353 teams in Division I basketball.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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2020 aggregate NBA mock draft 3.0: Michigan State players are climbing

After over a month of the college basketball season, we are starting to get a better picture of what the 2020 NBA Draft will look like.

After over a month of the college basketball season, we are starting to get a better picture of what the 2020 NBA draft will look like.

For example, Georgia Bulldogs freshman Anthony Edwards is beginning to separate himself as a near-consensus No. 1 overall pick. On the other side of the coin, though, several of the projected top selections (LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman, Cole Anthony and RJ Hampton) will miss extended time due to either injury or suspension.

In order to get a better read of the bigger picture, we collected opinions from the top experts and analysts that cover the draft. The latest 2020 NBA mock drafts from ESPN, CBS Sports, SI.com, Bleacher Report, NBADraft.net, The Athletic as well as USA Today Sports Media Group’s Rookie Wire were used for these rankings.

One of the most interesting takeaways is that the Michigan State Spartans have three players (Cassius Winston, Aaron Henry and Xavier Tillman) all trending up.

After making the Final Four in last year’s March Madness, the program was expected to take another leap forward for their 2019-20 campaign.

Despite three losses in their first 10 games, the Spartans still rank No. 15 overall this season. This can be attributed to the fact Michigan State currently has the third-best offense in college basketball, per KenPom.com.

They also have three of the most improved players since our last aggregate mock draft. The full list, and more on each of the MSU players moving up draft boards, is included below.

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Cassius Winston, Guard

Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

AMD Rank: 29

Since our last AMD, this has moved up 17 spots in our rankings.

Despite already being 21 years old, the 6-foot-1 guard currently has a first-round grade from ESPN as well as Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports.

Winston has been one of the best distributors since he began at MSU. 67.1 percent of all field goals for the Spartans have been assisted, which is the sixth-most among all teams so far this season. His career assist rate (44.1 percent) ranks No. 1 overall among all college players who have played at least 50 games since 2009-10, via Sports-Reference.

During his freshman season, he had the second-best assist rate (46.7 percent) in the NCAA. Then as a sophomore, his assist rate (43.5 percent) trailed only Trae Young for the best in college basketball. Last season, his assist mark (44.8 percent) ranked third-best and behind only Ja Morant among all who played for teams that made the tournament.

But he has also shown strength as one of the more accurate shooters in the NCAA.

Winston was 75-for-151 (49.7 percent) from beyond the arc in 2017-18. That helped him join the exclusive 50-40-90 club for field-goal percentage, three-point percentage and free-throw percentage. Even as a sophomore then, the guard was one of the few to have a membership with at least two three-point attempts per game.

There is some enough NBA readiness to show he can contribute right away for a winning team.

Aaron Henry, Wing

AMD Rank: 33

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Since our last AMD, this has moved up 26 spots in our rankings.

Henry was of the players who helped himself the most during the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Then a freshman, he put up 20 points with 6 rebounds and 6 assists during a victory over LSU.

While he has not yet taken the leap some expected as a sophomore, draft experts still have confidence in him as a prospect. His highest ranking right now comes from Jonathan Wasserman, who has him at No. 28 overall (via Bleacher Report):

“The eye test on Henry looks more convincing than the numbers. He isn’t a high-level creator, which limits him in Michigan State’s offense. But the 6’6″ guard is hitting open shots, capitalizing on driving lanes and making impact defensive plays. This late, teams will overlook Henry’s production for his fit.”

Perhaps the best news for the wing is that there is room for improvement. However, there have also been moments that show what Henry is capable of accomplishing at the next level.

This season, for example, the sophomore has been one of the most effective shooters off the catch. He is averaging 1.78 points per possession on catch-and-shoot attempts in a set offense, per Synergy Sports, which ranks in the 98th percentile.

Henry is also shooting 72.7 percent at the rim, which is an especially solid rate for a wing. Overall, he looks like someone capable of being a 3-and-D player in an NBA rotation.

Xavier Tillman, Big

AMD Rank: 50

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Since our last AMD, this has moved up 13 spots in our rankings.

Michigan State has always been a team that plays better with Tillman on the court. Last season, for example, the big actually had the third-best box plus-minus in the NCAA — trailing only Zion Williamson and Brandon Clarke.

Jeremy Woo recently helped contextualize what professional teams may like about the 6-foot-8 junior (via SI.com):

“Tillman specializes in doing the dirty work and has been a largely unheralded yet invaluable piece of the Spartans’ success dating back to last season. He’s not particularly tall for a center but has a chance to be a quality rotational big in the pros with what he adds defensively and on the glass. Tillman has worked on extending his shooting range, and if he ends up being able to shoot the three, he’ll have a fairly strong window of opportunity as a role player. A lot of the things he does as a screener and defender don’t show up in the box score, and while he’ll never be more than a fourth or fifth offensive option, he might be able to thrive in that capacity.”

His best trait so far this season has been his ability to cut to the basket. He is shooting 15-for-17 (88.2 percent) on these attempts, per Synergy.

But he has also added value on the offensive glass and as a rim protector for Michigan State. His willingness and ability to make the most of time on the floor makes him a draftable professional prospect.

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Utah State Gets Neemias Queta Back And An Overtime Win Against Fresno State: 77-70

Game Recap: No. 25 Utah State 77, Fresno State 70 The Aggies get star big man back in a close home win against the Bulldogs. Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire Merrill and company hold on in overtime for 77-70 win in conference play. The Aggies …

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Game Recap: No. 25 Utah State 77, Fresno State 70

The Aggies get star big man back in a close home win against the Bulldogs. 

Contact/Follow @HardwoodTalk & @MWCwire

Merrill and company hold on in overtime for 77-70 win in conference play.

The Aggies are 2-0 in conference play after a 12 point win in San Jose on Wednesday night and a 7 point win in overtime Saturday at home. The Aggies struggled to gain a solid lead most of the game and a 61-58 lead with less than eighteen seconds left to go wasn’t enough to solidify a win in regulation.

The surprise of the night was the return of star sophomore center Neemias Queta who logged just 11 minutes in his first game of the season back from a knee injury suffered in the offseason playing for the Portuguese national team. Queta ended the night with six points, 1 rebound and 1 block but failed to make a field goal in what looked like a rust shedding outing for him. The Aggies haven’t missed a beat without him and have received production from a number of players in his absence.

But after coming off of a win Wednesday night the Aggies were taken to overtime by a Bulldog team who weren’t going to go down easily. The game looked to be a low scoring affair in the last minutes of the second half but a big time three rattled home for senior guard New Williams with less than a second to go. That sent the game into overtime and Craig Smith’s team was more composed and outscoring Fresno State 16-9 during that time. Composure and a late three pointer by a wide open Abel Porter in the corner sealed the deal for the Aggies.

The Bulldogs were looking to break a three game losing streak and also garner their first win in conference play. But while they came up short it wasn’t for a lack of scoring on seniors New Williams and Nate Grimes part who combined for 48 of their teams 70 points. Though they didn’t receive much help down the stretch and failed to contain Sam Merrill who ended the night with 24 Points and his ability to get his teammates involved robbed the Bulldogs of an upset in Logan.

Up Next:

Fresno State:

The Bulldogs take on the California Golden Bears on Wednesday the 11th in Berkley and look to gain some momentum and a win heading into the middle of December. Freshman Jarred Hyder needs to step up and his supporting cast needs another performance like Saturday’s if they want to head home to the Central Valley with a win.

Utah State:

The Aggies take some time off with almost a full week until they take on in-state rival Brigham Young at home on Saturday the 14th. The Cougars have star forward Yoeli Childs back and he is averaging 21.0 PPG and 10.5 RPG through his first two games. The Dee Glen Spectrum should be filled for this one.

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