Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind

Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind Off-court turmoil could cause a shake-up in the top half Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire Happy Holidays from Mountain West Wire! Enjoy the yuletide with this week’s installment of …

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Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind


Off-court turmoil could cause a shake-up in the top half


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

Happy Holidays from Mountain West Wire! Enjoy the yuletide with this week’s installment of the DPI rankings.

It seems almost impossible that it’s already the holiday season, but here we are. There have been nearly two months of hoops already and the non-conference season is just about over.

And while we think we may have clarity now, league play is a horse of a different color. Teams that are on cloud nine right now may come crashing back to earth. Others that have been struggling might finally shake the demons free from their backs.

But as we inch ever closer to the official onset of the Mountain West season, let’s take one last look at how all the teams stack up with just a few buy-games left on the league’s non-conference docket.

As always, for a full rundown of how the Dieckhoff Power Index, or DPI, is calculated, head over to my site. And bear in mind, non-Division I games do not count toward the DPI, so all those games against Life Pacific and Portland Bible go out the window. These ratings are current through December 23.

#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE

http://www.dpihoops.net/sdsuwk8.png

The Aztecs had nearly two weeks off between their nailbiter against San Jose State and their next game versus Utah. Clearly, they used this time to reflect and improve. SDSU ran the Utes out of the building just days after the former Mountain West squad beat Kentucky. The defense continues to be the star of the show, but this team can score, too.

#2 — UTAH STATE

The Aggies have been dancing on the knife’s edge over the past few weeks, but they’ve come out on the other side mostly unscathed. In their past four games, Utah State has won in overtime, won by four points, won by two points in overtime, and won by three points. But margins notwithstandings, wins over Florida and South Florida solidified their at-large case.

#3 — NEW MEXICO

Oh, no. Things were going a little too well for the Lobos, weren’t they? After an impressive start, New Mexico announced over the weekend that starters Carlton Bragg and JJ Caldwell would be suspended indefinitely. Paul Weir was able to corral the rest of the team together and they won again over lowly Houston Baptist, but adversity has descended upon Albuquerque.

#4 — NEVADA

The Wolf Pack are the prime candidate to take on third place in the league should the Lobos stumble during this tumultuous time. Their trio of is legitimately dangerous. They hung very tight with Saint Mary’s last week, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hang a big win over SDSU or Utah State this season. They’ve still got a lot of room to grow, though.

#5 — COLORADO STATE

You just can’t get rid of these Rams! Though they aren’t making many waves on the national scale, give them credit for sticking around the top half of the league for this long. Nico Carvacho is Nico Carvacho, and Isaiah Stevens has been a revelation in Niko Medved’s backcourt. Fellow freshman David Roddy started his first game in CSU’s 111-104 triple OT win over Tulsa.

#6 — BOISE STATE

Boise State has given a pretty good indication of where they are right now with their performance so far, both on the season as a whole and in the Diamond Head Classic. The Broncos lost to a wayward Georgia Tech club and then pummeled an up-and-down Portland team. They got a crummy Christmas gift, drawing a good UTEP team in their final game in Hawai’i.

#7 — FRESNO STATE

Because the DPI doesn’t count non-D1 games, the Bulldogs sit at just 3-8—yet they’ve managed to stay in seventh place, thanks to a slightly above-average defense. It was another heartbreaker for Justin Hutson on Monday, with Fresno State falling to San Francisco by just two points. That’s the sixth time the Bulldogs have either lost by one possession or lost in overtime.

#8 — AIR FORCE

The Falcons continue to struggle during this disappointing year, following up a narrow win over Denver with a loss to Drake. The offense has been good, but they haven’t been able to stop opponents from scoring. They rank near the bottom of the nation both in their ability to make teams miss and in their proclivity toward forcing turnovers.

#9 — UNLV

A rocky start to the season got worse at the start of the month with the news that grad transfer Elijah Mitrou-Long would miss six to eight weeks with a thumb injury. The Rebels are 1-2 without him, with losses to BYU and Pacific buoyed only by a forgettable triumph over Robert Morris. Fans may already be counting down the days until David Jenkins debuts in Vegas.

#10 — WYOMING

More of the same from the Cowboys, as Hunter Maldonado continues to pile up mounds of individual statistics while the team flounders. They did snap a six-game skid, though. To be clear, that’s not a knock on Maldonado. He has developed into a fine player; there’s just not enough talent throughout the roster. But their defensive metrics indicate that they’re putting forth the effort.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE

Yeesh. The Spartans’ skid has extended to eight games after San Jose State fell to Santa Clara and UC Riverside last week. The shots just aren’t falling and they don’t take care of the ball. Seneca Knight is having a good year, but once again, the Spartans have separated themselves as the clear-cut lowest ranked team in the Mountain West.

That’s it for this week. Here’s wishing you all a safe and happy holiday from Mountain West Wire and the DPI.

But buckle up. Conference play starts next week.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak

It was back to non-conference play last week for the Mountain West. Not everybody was in action—and some who were now wish they hadn’t been.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak


The top two stand pat, but plenty of movement below


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

New Mexico, Boise State climbing in the latest DPI rankings for Week 7

It was back to non-conference play last week for the league’s affiliate members on the heels of the opening salvo to the long Mountain West season. Not everybody was in action—and some now wish they hadn’t been.

But it wasn’t all misery.

Some teams are making big strides, including one squad trying to make a move into the uppermost echelon of the MWC.

Below are the DPI rankings heading into the heart of Week 7. If you’re new to the rankings or just want a refresher, head here for a rundown of how the DPI is calculated. The ratings below reflect games played through Tuesday, December 17. As always, non-Division I games are not counted in the DPI.

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#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

Last Week: #1

The Aztecs moved to the #1 spot in the Mountain West last week and with no games since their close shave against San Jose State, they haven’t moved much up or down. Brian Dutcher’s team is still undefeated and boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Malachi Flynn’s star turn has propelled SDSU into the national polls, along with the play of Matt Mitchell, Yanni Wetzell, and Jordan Schakel. If KJ Feagin can provide a little more offense, this team could really turn in a special season.

#2 — UTAH STATE AGGIES

Last Week: #2

It’s been a bit of a rough patch for the Aggies over the past few games. They still have one of the two best rosters in the league, but they aren’t quite living up to preseason expectations so far. After losing to Saint Mary’s and looking underwhelming in their first two Mountain West games, Utah State fell to BYU on Saturday in Salt Lake City. It was only their second loss, but it’s a missed opportunity for a good out-of-conference win to put on their NCAA Tournament resume.

#3 — NEW MEXICO LOBOS

Last Week: #4

The Lobos have won six straight after toppling New Mexico State and Grand Canyon since the last DPI rankings were posted here. Though they aren’t playing at the level of SDSU just yet, this patchwork roster of homegrown talent and incoming transfers has performed admirably in the early going. JaQuan Lyle has been everything that Paul Weir could have wanted and more. Oh, and Carlton Bragg is averaging a double-double. So far, so good.

#4 — NEVADA WOLF PACK

Last Week: #3

The Wolf Pack looked like they were starting to turn a corner over the past few weeks, winning five straight games on either side of Thanksgiving. But last week, Nevada was the second casualty of BYU’s surge, along with Utah State and UNLV. The offense had been clicking on all cylinders, but immediately downshifted from a 100-point performance against Air Force to a 42-point outing against the Cougars. That kind of volatility that makes it tough to trust Steve Alford’s club.

#5 — BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Last Week: #6

Leon Rice is getting things back on track in Boise, but outside of their win over BYU—before Yoeli Childs came back, of course—the Broncos haven’t really beaten anybody. It was another rocky showing for Boise State last week, with a midweek loss to Tulsa preceding a blowout win over Alabama State. Derrick Alston is averaging 21 points and Justinian Jessup is finding his form. But the starting five is not the problem here; Rice’s team suffers from a lack of depth.

#6 — COLORADO STATE RAMS

Last Week: #5

The Rams jumped out to a promising start, but they’ve lost three of their past four games, including both of their opening Mountain West bouts. Mixed in there was a 72-68 win over South Dakota State, and while the Jackrabbits are not a bad squad by any means, that they played CSU so closely gives a good indication of where the Rams are right now. Niko Medved’s team gave in-state rivals Colorado a run for their money, but ultimately fell 56-48 over the weekend.

#7 — AIR FORCE FALCONS

Last Week: #8

The defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but recently, the Falcons have been getting better results than they did during a rough November. The new month has been kinder to the cadets, with Air Force winning four of its past five (Note: Tuesday’s 99-42  win over Johnson & Wales is not counted in the DPI). AJ Walker has taken an important step forward as an offensive option. The sophomore was averaging 20 points per game over the past three games coming into Tuesday.

#8 — FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

Last Week: #10

Justin Huston finally got his team to a second Division I win on Saturday against Cal Poly. But the bigger story here is the seven losses that they have already incurred. Nate Grimes is doing exactly what was expected of him so far, averaging a double-double with 13.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per night. Guards Jarred Hyder and New Williams both have some good performances under their belts, but they haven’t been able to click at the same time. That needs to change.

#9 — UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS

Last Week: #9

The Rebels didn’t play last week, so the bad taste of the 33-point loss to BYU back has been lingering for a week and a half. There have been a lot of close calls, with UNLV playing in four separate overtime games so far. They are shooting under 42% from the field and turning the ball over 15 times a night. Games against Pacific and Robert Morris this week offer TJ Otzelberger the chance to start making some headway in his first year at the helm.

#10 — WYOMING COWBOYS

Last Week: #7

Allen Edwards got his Cowboys out to a 3-3 start, but they have dropped five straight games, including their most recent defeat at the hands of Northern Colorado. The Bears didn’t just sneak past Wyoming, either—the Big Sky hopefuls handed the home team a 21-point drubbing at Arena-Auditorium. The defense has been fair to middling, but the offense has been dreadful thus far. The Cowboys are shooting under 50% on two-pointers and just over 30% on threes.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE SPARTANS

Last Week: #11

There’s a bit of a running joke around here about which Spartan is most likely to transfer next year, since the sputtering Spartans have seen five double-digit scorers depart in the past three offseasons—including Brandon Clarke, who parlayed his post-SJSU star turn at Gonzaga into a budding NBA career. All jokes aside, Seneca Knight has separated himself as the Spartans’ top option, scoring 12.5 points per game. Hopefully the sophomore can remain an important building block for Jean Prioleau.

That’s it for this week. Check back next week to see who’s rising and falling in the Mountain West and be sure to visit the Dieckhoff Power Index daily for updated rankings on all 353 teams in Division I basketball.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings

Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings Aggies and Aztecs already separating themselves from the pack Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire ‘Tis the season…for computer rankings Now that Thanksgiving has come and gone-and more …

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings


Aggies and Aztecs already separating themselves from the pack


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

‘Tis the season…for computer rankings

Now that Thanksgiving has come and gone—and more importantly, with nearly 1,200 Division I games having been played—it’s time to start looking at how teams are stacking up against one another.

To do so, allow me to introduce my analytics system, the Dieckhoff Power Index—or DPI, for short.

The DPI assigns teams an overall rating out of 100 points, which will hopefully make it easy to digest for people who, like me, have little to no knowledge of advanced math.

Without getting into too long an explanation, the DPI is a mixture of:

  • offensive efficiency
  • defensive efficiency
  • statistical performance in the “four factors”: shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws.

A deeper explanation of the history and methodology behind the system can be found at the DPI website. The site has the full rankings for all 353 teams and will feature bracketology projections later in the season.

But for our purposes here at Mountain West Wire, all you really need to know is this: high scores are good and low scores are bad. These ratings paint a picture of how the eleven teams in the MWC match up on both sides of the ball, nationally and within the league.

Updated DPI rankings for the Mountain West will be posted here weekly throughout the season. I will also give some insights into each team and track their movement in the standings.

Without further ado, here are the first batch of rankings for the DPI on the heels of the holiday weekend. The grades and rankings are current through all games played on Monday, December 2.

(Note: Games against non-Div. I opponents are not counted in the DPI.)

Utah State (#1 MW, #11 overall) — DPI GRADE: 86.50

  • Offense Grade: 88.9 (#1 MW, #11 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 83.9 (#2 MW, #19 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 86.7 (#2 MW, #45 overall)

Though it seems counter-intuitive with potential All-American Sam Merrill in the mix, Utah State’s weakest offensive trait so far has been its shooting. The defense has also struggled to force turnovers. But when the Aggies get Neemias Queta (knee) back, both of those marks should go up considerably. These issues are minor, though, as Utah State has been a top-20 team on either side of the ball. They’re still tops in the MW—for now.

Games this week: 12/4 @ San Jose State; 12/7 vs. Fresno State

San Diego StATE (#2 MW, #20 overall) — DPI GRADE: 84.95

  • Offense Grade: 80.9 (#2 MW, #61 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 85.8 (#1 MW, #8 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 88.1 (#1 MW, #32 overall)

Outside of Michigan, the Aztecs had probably the best weekend out of any team in the country. After garnering lukewarm NCAA Tournament consideration before the season, SDSU is already knocking on the door of the Top 25 polls after just four weeks. Their top-10 defense has been the key, with the Aztecs allowing the 17th-lowest effective field goal percentage in the country. They are charging hard for Utah State’s throne.

Games this week: 12/4 @ Colorado State; 12/8 vs. San Jose State

 

COLORADO STATE (#3 MW, #109 OVERALL) — DPI GRADE: 76.15

  • Offense Grade: 77.8 (#3 MW, #88 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 69.0 (#7 MW, #165 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 81.6 (#4 MW, #91 overall)

A bit of a shock here, as the Rams were picked to finish ninth in the preseason Mountain West poll. Colorado State has a couple regrettable losses already, but recent wins over Washington State and Loyola Chicago were encouraging. The team has shot the ball relatively well, but its secret to success so far has been getting to the free throw line. The Rams have already made more than 200 trips to the line, a top-10 mark nationally.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. San Diego State; 12/7 @ Boise State

NEW MEXICO (#4 MW, #110 overall) — DPI GRADE: 76.07

  • Offense Grade: 75.2 (#6 MW, #126 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 72.4 (#4 MW, #127 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 80.7 (#5 MW, #105 overall)

It’s been a mixed bag so far for Paul Weir’s new-look Lobos, but the results have been mostly positive. New Mexico would surely like to get that game to UTEP back, but their win over Wisconsin cancels out the loss to the Miners. The Lobos were above-average at mostly everything in November, but those numbers are boosted by some blowout victories. Early indications are that UNM will be closer to .500 than they will be to the NCAA Tournament.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. Boise State; 12/7 vs. Wyoming

NEVADA (#5 MW, #120 OVERALL) — DPI GRADE: 75.63

  • Offense Grade: 75.6 (#5 MW, #120 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 69.5 (#5 MW, #159 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 81.8 (#3 MW, #89 overall)

There’s precious little daylight separating Teams 3 through 5 in the Mountain West right now, as the Rams hold just a half-point edge over the Wolf Pack. New head coach Steve Alford has already experienced some turbulence, as Nevada has lost to its three best opponents so far. But their shooting and turnover stats indicate that they should be a Top 100 team soon.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. Santa Clara; 12/7 @ Air Force

Head to the page 2 for the back half of the standings.

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