MWC Final: Valparaiso vs. Bradley odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Valparaiso vs. Bradley college basketball matchup, with college basketball betting odds, picks and best bets.

The Valparaiso Crusaders (19-15) meet the Bradley Braves (22-11) in the Missouri Valley Conference title game Sunday at 2:05 p.m. ET at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis. We analyze the Valparaiso-Bradley odds and betting lines, while providing college basketball betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Valparaiso vs. Bradley: Three things you need to know

1. The 7-seed Crusaders of Valpo have been Cinderella in the conference tourney colloquially referred to as ‘Arch Madness’. Valpo topped Evansville 58-55 on Thursday, stunned Loyola-Chicago 74-73 in OT Friday, then dumped Missouri State 89-82 Saturday in a 6-7 game to punch their ticket to the final.

2. The 4-seed Braves of Bradley are less of a surprise to be in the title game. They snuck by Southern Illinois 64-59 in the quarters Friday before racking up a 10-point win over another upstart, Drake, by a 76-66 score.

3. Bradley and Valpo split their regular-season series, with the Braves winning 80-69 Jan. 29 and the Crusaders winning 90-78 Feb. 22. Both games saw the home team win and the Over hit.


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Valparaiso vs. Bradley: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Bradley 79, Valparaiso 76

Moneyline (ML)

Valparaiso is the underdog in this one at +135. While I expect a tight game, I like BRADLEY -162 to hold the Crusaders off in this one.

New to sports betting? A $10 successful bet on Bradley to win outright returns a profit of $6.17.

Against the Spread (ATS)

Valparaiso (+2.5, +100) hasn’t been terribly steady all season, but the Crusaders are playing their best basketball of the season and have been cover kings lately. The Crusaders finished the regular season 6-1 ATS in their final seven games — including that straight-up win over Bradley (-2.5, -121 for Sunday’s game) Feb. 22 — and they’re 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in the MVC tourney so far.

The Braves might sneak away with a ticket to the dance, but the Crusaders will make them work for it. A slight lean here for BRADLEY -2.5 (-121).

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over in the two regular-season meetings between Valpo and Bradley, and taking OVER 132.5 (-110) is a good play Sunday. The Over has hit in the past two for the Crusaders, including an 89-point performance by their offense against Missouri State in Saturday’s semis. Bradley hit the over in their final five of the regular season, while going 1-1 with the total in the tourney so far.

Want some action in this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Utah State Leads The Race for #2 Seed in MW Tournament

The Mountain West title has already been won, but a battle is brewing for 2nd place – and a spot on the other side of the bracket from SDSU.

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Utah State Leads Six Teams Vying for #2 Seed in MW Tourney


Aggies have the inside track, but any slip-ups could cause chaos


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

SDSU has already clinched the top spot, but how will things play out beneath them?

With the Mountain West regular season title already locked up by San Diego State—and with the Aztecs focusing on bigger things, like a potential #1 seed and a chance to cut down the nets in Atlanta—the major storyline in the league has shifted to who will finish in second place.

Currently, there are five teams leading the fight for the Mountain West’s silver medal: Utah State, Colorado State, Nevada, Boise State, and UNLV. The Aggies currently hold a half-game edge over the Rams and Wolf Pack, with the Broncos a full game back. UNLV is in sixth place, but their 8-6 record is only one and half games off Utah State’s pace.

Why is the race for second place so important?

Because with undefeated San Diego State on the other side of the bracket, the teams that finish in second and third will have a few extra games before they have to play the Aztecs. The teams that earn the #4 and #5 seed will face the difficult task of playing an above-average team in their first game and SDSU in the next.

With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, each game holds massive sway over seeding for the Mountain West Tournament. To give you an idea of just how contentious these next few weeks will be, take a look at some of the big matchups remaining on the schedule:

  • 2/18 – Nevada @ New Mexico
  • 2/18 – Colorado State @ UNLV
  • 2/22 – UNLV @ San Diego State
  • 2/23 – New Mexico @ Boise State
  • 2/25 – Colorado State @ San Diego State
  • 2/26 – Boise State @ UNLV
  • 2/29 – San Diego State @ Nevada
  • 2/29 – Utah State @ New Mexico

With so many important games remaining, there are myriad scenarios of how the standings will look on March 1. Here’s a quick investigation into how each team can find their way to second place in the Mountain West.

NEW MEXICO (17-10, 6-8 MW)

Remaining Schedule: 2/18 vs. Nevada, 2/23 @ Boise State, 2/26 @ Air Force, 2/29 vs. Utah State

Yes, that’s right. The Lobos are still in it.

New Mexico is currently in seventh place and below .500 in league play, but they have just enough rope that if everything goes right—and it really is almost everything—they could end up finishing in second place.

Here’s how: Wyoming would need to beat Utah State and Nevada. San Jose State would need to beat Colorado State, Utah State, and UNLV. Air Force would need to beat the Rams in Fort Collins. If all of that happens, and New Mexico takes care of its own business against the Wolf Pack, Broncos, and Falcons, it would set up a spectacular season finale in The Pit.

If the Lobos could win that game, then New Mexico, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, and Colorado State would all finish with a league record of 10-8. Tiebreaking procedures dictate that the team with the best record against these opponents will receive the highest seed. The Lobos and Aggies would move into a two-way tiebreaker by virtue each having gone 4-2 against these opponents.

The tiebreaker then moves to head-to-head record, which would give New Mexico the advantage—the final game of the season would be the only regular-season meeting of the two teams.

There is virtually no chance that all of that would happen. But the mere fact that it is even still a possibility is amazing, considering how quickly the Lobos have fallen off the map after their 15-3 start to the season.

UNLV (13-14, 8-6 MW)

Remaining Schedule: 2/18 vs. Colorado State, 2/22 @ San Diego State, 2/26 vs. Boise State, 2/29 @ San Jose State

It would still take some major chaos in the Mountain West for the Rebels to finish in second place, but it’s not as far-fetched as New Mexico’s bid. UNLV has plenty of roads into second place—even without a win over San Diego State.

Like New Mexico, the Rebels would really need Utah State to fall apart down the stretch, with the other three teams currently ahead of them stumbling as well. But UNLV could lose to the Aztecs and still finish 11-7. A handful of scenarios could see the Rebels sitting clear of everyone else in the #2 position.

Interestingly, if the Rebels can’t land in the #2 or #3 spot, they may actually have better luck down as the #6 or #7 team. They could stay away from San Diego State and will still have the benefit of playing at home for the Mountain West Tournament.

These scenarios are much, much more likely than the Rebels finishing second. But even more likely is that one of the next four teams will take home the silver. [CONTINUED]

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San Diego State at UNLV odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Sunday’s San Diego State Aztecs vs. UNLV Rebels odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks.

The San Diego State Aztecs (20-0, 9-0 Mountain West) travel to Fabulous Las Vegas to take on the UNLV Rebels (11-10, 6-2) in an MWC showdown Sunday at 4 p.m. ET at the Thomas & Mack Center.

We analyze the San Diego State-UNLV odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

San Diego State at UNLV: Three things you need to know

1. The fourth-ranked Aztecs (USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll) have been great on both sides of the ball. SDSU has been especially stingy on defense, allowing few good looks from anywhere on the floor and being lock-down proficient on the glass.

2. Analytics peg San Diego State as being one of the best in the nation when playing on the road. But there is also a thread of inconsistency running throughout the Aztecs’ numbers at home and abroad. These swings have come on offense and defense and against teams up and down the rankings.

3. The site of this one is significant. Advanced stats reveal that the Rebels have among the nation’s biggest drop-offs in home-vs.-road efficiency. The Rebs have won six straight on their home hardwood.


Get some action on this game or others by placing a bet at BetMGM! 


San Diego State at UNLV: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.

Prediction

UNLV 67, San Diego State 65

Moneyline (ML)

The spread and Over/Under look to be well-pegged by the betting public. But the UNLV side of the moneyline stands out here. UNLV +230 makes for decent value. The Rebels have offensive indicators pointed the right way, and the Aztecs are in a vulnerable spot. A comp for this one on the SDSU side is the Aztecs’ Jan. 14 at Fresno State, a non-cover of a 12.5-point spread and a contest that was played within one score mostly throughout. If you can see UNLV winning 3 of 10 meetings, the line here has value.

New to sports betting? A $10 moneyline play on UNLV would return a $23 profit.

Against the Spread (ATS)

In their six-game win streak at home, UNLV is 5-1 against the spread. The Runnin’ Rebels are 4-1 ATS over their last five games following a straight-up loss.

UNLV (+7.5 -134) line is a lean here. Shade this play as stronger than the O/U but weaker than the moneyline.

Over/Under (O/U)

San Diego State has had nine games on each side of the O/U. The Over is 11-10 in UNLV’s 21 games. The Under is 4-1 in UNLV’s last five games as a home underdog, and it’s 5-2 in SDSU’s last seven as a road favorite. The UNDER (133.5 -115) is a lean here.

Want some action on this matchup? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak

It was back to non-conference play last week for the Mountain West. Not everybody was in action—and some who were now wish they hadn’t been.

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Week 7 DPI Rankings: Lobos Rising After Six-Game Streak


The top two stand pat, but plenty of movement below


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

New Mexico, Boise State climbing in the latest DPI rankings for Week 7

It was back to non-conference play last week for the league’s affiliate members on the heels of the opening salvo to the long Mountain West season. Not everybody was in action—and some now wish they hadn’t been.

But it wasn’t all misery.

Some teams are making big strides, including one squad trying to make a move into the uppermost echelon of the MWC.

Below are the DPI rankings heading into the heart of Week 7. If you’re new to the rankings or just want a refresher, head here for a rundown of how the DPI is calculated. The ratings below reflect games played through Tuesday, December 17. As always, non-Division I games are not counted in the DPI.

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#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS

Last Week: #1

The Aztecs moved to the #1 spot in the Mountain West last week and with no games since their close shave against San Jose State, they haven’t moved much up or down. Brian Dutcher’s team is still undefeated and boasts one of the best defenses in the country. Malachi Flynn’s star turn has propelled SDSU into the national polls, along with the play of Matt Mitchell, Yanni Wetzell, and Jordan Schakel. If KJ Feagin can provide a little more offense, this team could really turn in a special season.

#2 — UTAH STATE AGGIES

Last Week: #2

It’s been a bit of a rough patch for the Aggies over the past few games. They still have one of the two best rosters in the league, but they aren’t quite living up to preseason expectations so far. After losing to Saint Mary’s and looking underwhelming in their first two Mountain West games, Utah State fell to BYU on Saturday in Salt Lake City. It was only their second loss, but it’s a missed opportunity for a good out-of-conference win to put on their NCAA Tournament resume.

#3 — NEW MEXICO LOBOS

Last Week: #4

The Lobos have won six straight after toppling New Mexico State and Grand Canyon since the last DPI rankings were posted here. Though they aren’t playing at the level of SDSU just yet, this patchwork roster of homegrown talent and incoming transfers has performed admirably in the early going. JaQuan Lyle has been everything that Paul Weir could have wanted and more. Oh, and Carlton Bragg is averaging a double-double. So far, so good.

#4 — NEVADA WOLF PACK

Last Week: #3

The Wolf Pack looked like they were starting to turn a corner over the past few weeks, winning five straight games on either side of Thanksgiving. But last week, Nevada was the second casualty of BYU’s surge, along with Utah State and UNLV. The offense had been clicking on all cylinders, but immediately downshifted from a 100-point performance against Air Force to a 42-point outing against the Cougars. That kind of volatility that makes it tough to trust Steve Alford’s club.

#5 — BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Last Week: #6

Leon Rice is getting things back on track in Boise, but outside of their win over BYU—before Yoeli Childs came back, of course—the Broncos haven’t really beaten anybody. It was another rocky showing for Boise State last week, with a midweek loss to Tulsa preceding a blowout win over Alabama State. Derrick Alston is averaging 21 points and Justinian Jessup is finding his form. But the starting five is not the problem here; Rice’s team suffers from a lack of depth.

#6 — COLORADO STATE RAMS

Last Week: #5

The Rams jumped out to a promising start, but they’ve lost three of their past four games, including both of their opening Mountain West bouts. Mixed in there was a 72-68 win over South Dakota State, and while the Jackrabbits are not a bad squad by any means, that they played CSU so closely gives a good indication of where the Rams are right now. Niko Medved’s team gave in-state rivals Colorado a run for their money, but ultimately fell 56-48 over the weekend.

#7 — AIR FORCE FALCONS

Last Week: #8

The defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but recently, the Falcons have been getting better results than they did during a rough November. The new month has been kinder to the cadets, with Air Force winning four of its past five (Note: Tuesday’s 99-42  win over Johnson & Wales is not counted in the DPI). AJ Walker has taken an important step forward as an offensive option. The sophomore was averaging 20 points per game over the past three games coming into Tuesday.

#8 — FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

Last Week: #10

Justin Huston finally got his team to a second Division I win on Saturday against Cal Poly. But the bigger story here is the seven losses that they have already incurred. Nate Grimes is doing exactly what was expected of him so far, averaging a double-double with 13.5 points and 10.4 rebounds per night. Guards Jarred Hyder and New Williams both have some good performances under their belts, but they haven’t been able to click at the same time. That needs to change.

#9 — UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS

Last Week: #9

The Rebels didn’t play last week, so the bad taste of the 33-point loss to BYU back has been lingering for a week and a half. There have been a lot of close calls, with UNLV playing in four separate overtime games so far. They are shooting under 42% from the field and turning the ball over 15 times a night. Games against Pacific and Robert Morris this week offer TJ Otzelberger the chance to start making some headway in his first year at the helm.

#10 — WYOMING COWBOYS

Last Week: #7

Allen Edwards got his Cowboys out to a 3-3 start, but they have dropped five straight games, including their most recent defeat at the hands of Northern Colorado. The Bears didn’t just sneak past Wyoming, either—the Big Sky hopefuls handed the home team a 21-point drubbing at Arena-Auditorium. The defense has been fair to middling, but the offense has been dreadful thus far. The Cowboys are shooting under 50% on two-pointers and just over 30% on threes.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE SPARTANS

Last Week: #11

There’s a bit of a running joke around here about which Spartan is most likely to transfer next year, since the sputtering Spartans have seen five double-digit scorers depart in the past three offseasons—including Brandon Clarke, who parlayed his post-SJSU star turn at Gonzaga into a budding NBA career. All jokes aside, Seneca Knight has separated himself as the Spartans’ top option, scoring 12.5 points per game. Hopefully the sophomore can remain an important building block for Jean Prioleau.

That’s it for this week. Check back next week to see who’s rising and falling in the Mountain West and be sure to visit the Dieckhoff Power Index daily for updated rankings on all 353 teams in Division I basketball.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Three reasons to watch the SoFi Hawaii Bowl

Three reasons to watch the SoFi Hawaii Bowl Old rivals meet up. Contact/Follow @MWCwire Christmas Eve football The annual bowl game in Hawaii may seem to be lackluster to some but to the rest of the teams who did not make a NY6 bowl or a bowl game …

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Three reasons to watch the SoFi Hawaii Bowl


Old rivals meet up.


Contact/Follow @MWCwire

Christmas Eve football

The annual bowl game in Hawaii may seem to be lackluster to some but to the rest of the teams who did not make a NY6 bowl or a bowl game at all this is the dream bowl game to attend.

Would you rather play in 23 degree snowy weather in Boise or the Bronx or play in 76 degree sunny weather in December? Scrambling to find your passport for the Bahamas or already heading towards your boarding gate to the 50th state. Here’s why you should watch this bowl game on December 24th:

A match made in Paradise

On paper this is the dream matchup the SoFi Hawaii bowl representatives hoped would come true for the attendance and a great matchup between two old WAC foes. What made it interesting before the two teams were announced is that BYU was guaranteed a slot if they were bowl eligible and not the MW or the home team Hawaii.

That made the MW teams a bit angry possibly taking away a spot from a bowl game luckily the Power 5 teams had less bowl eligible teams which gave the AAC the better bowls and left the Hawaii bowl open for Hawaii. If you’re from the western states or just want to feel nostalgia or hey just want to imagine feeling warm and being at the game then tune in to ESPN on Christmas Eve.

Off the map

Another reason to watch has got to be the high octane Hawaii Run and shoot offense that rekindled interest across the country. You can say at the beginning of the year that the ‘Bows offense was one dimensional in airing out the ball and making big plays. Now it’s becoming more balanced with the emergence of the run game particularly with Miles Reed. Reed is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and needs 109 yards to give him his first 1000 yard season of his young career.

While we know if healthy both Cole McDonald and Chevan Cordeiro can start and lead the ‘Bows to victory. We don’t know however the status of Cordeiro who did not play in the MW championship game but was suited up.

My guess if Cordeiro is still ailing an injury that McDonald will start and play throughout and keep Cordeiro healthy for spring ball and for the future of the program.

What you watching over there

There are no NFL games or NBA games on Christmas Eve so this should be the only game to watch. At the same time though it can be very a very hectic time making sure you secured the last Christmas ham or Star Wars merchandise in time before the big get together the next day. While waiting in line pull out your phone and keep an eye on the SoFi Hawaii bowl because it might be a shootout.

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Boise State at Colorado State odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams sports betting odds and lines, with college football betting picks and tips.

The Boise State Broncos (10-1, 7-0 MWC) and Colorado State Rams (4-7, 3-4 MWC) play Friday at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, CO at 3:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Boise State-Colorado State odds and betting lines while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Boise State at Colorado State: Three things you need to know

1. Boise State already clinched a spot in the conference championship game after crushing Utah State 56-21 last Saturday. Another win bolsters their New Years’ bowl hopes.

2. Colorado State lost to Wyoming 17-7 last week to drop its fourth straight contest in a row.

3. Colorado State cannot run the ball well. It managed just 48 yards last week against Wyoming. Contrast that with Boise State’s 297 yards on 6.5 yards per carry last week.


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Boise State at Colorado State: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:30 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Boise State 41, Colorado State 20

Moneyline (ML)

Boise State is a big -589 favorite on the moneyline and Colorado State is +420 in this conference game.

Colorado State must put together a better effort running the ball to keep Boise State’s pass rush honest. RB’s Marcus McElroy and Jaylen Thomas combined for just 36 yards last week. Boise State can make teams one dimensional as it ranks 23rd in the nation against the run (fewer than 118 yards allowed per game). RB George Holani ran for almost 200 yards last week and Colorado could not slow down Wyoming’s run attack.

The odds are just too chalky with a $10 bet garnering a profit of $1.70. PASS.

Against the Spread (ATS)

Boise State is 2-2-1 against the spread overall but covers by 5.3 points per game. Colorado State is 3-2 against the spread at home and is still 2.2 points per contest above the cover.

Take the BRONCOS (-13.5, -121). Boise State’s balance will drive Colorado State nuts most of the day and Colorado State has little incentive.

Over/Under (O/U)

The projected total is 57.5. This will be close but it is hard not to side with the OVER (-110). Colorado cannot stop the run and the bigger problem is once Boise State gets its play-action passing game going. This game could be over early if that happens.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @ChrisWasselDFS and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Utah State at St. Mary’s odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Utah State Aggies at St. Mary’s Gaels sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks and tips.

The Utah State Aggies (7-0) head to Moraga, Calif. to tangle with the St. Mary’s Gaels (5-1) at McKeon Pavilion at 11:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Utah State-St. Mary’s odds and betting lines, while providing college basketball betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Utah State at St. Mary’s: Three things you need to know

1. Utah State G Sam Merrill has been filling up the stat sheet this season, racking up 16.6 points per game while shooting a robust 51.1% from behind the 3-point line this season.

2. St. Mary’s has posted a 172-22 record at McKeon Pavilion across the past 11 seasons, but they already have a loss there this season. The Gaels fell to unranked Winthrop by a 61-59 count back on Nov. 11 as 19.5-point favorites.

3. These teams met on a neutral-site court on Nov. 19, 2018, and it was Utah State embarrassing St. Mary’s by an 80-63 score. Merrill posted 23 points with eight assists and four rebounds.


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Utah State at St. Mary’s: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:55 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Utah State 73, St. Mary’s 68

Moneyline (ML)

UTAH STATE (+145) is a strong value on the road against unranked St. Mary’s (-176). The Aggies are off to a 7-0 start, while the Gaels had a near-miss at Wisconsin and the Winthrop setback. They’re a good team, but USU is just playing better.

Against the Spread (ATS)

UTAH STATE (+3.5, -110) won against LSU and North Texas to win a tournament in the Bahamas, and it’s a respectable 4-2 against the spread across the past six games. The LSU win was by two points, while the Aggies’ other six games have all been decided by eight or more points.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 134.5 (-115) is the way to go in this solid matchup. While SMC plays a deliberate style, Utah State will be off and running. I expect both teams to be at or around 70 points, with the total going Over in the final couple of minutes with frequent fouls and free throws helping the total inch over.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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