Air Force vs. UNLV: How the Falcons can beat UNLV
The Rebels are Coming to the Springs Full of Confidence
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Can the Falcons regain form against UNLV with a spot in the Conference Championship on the line?
WEEK 12: Air Force Falcons 8-2 (5-1) vs. University of Nevada Las Vegas Rebels 8-2 (5-1)
WHEN: Saturday, November 18th — 1:30 P.M. MT/ 12:30 P.M. PT
WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)
WEATHER: Sunshine and some clouds. High 62F. Winds SE at 5 to 10 mph.
TV: CBS Sports Network
Carter Blackburn (play-by-play), Randy Cross (analyst)
RADIO: KVOR AM 740 in Colorado Springs, 104.3 the Fan in Denver, SIRIUS XM 380, SXM 970
Jim Arthur (play-by-play), Jesse Kurtz (analyst)
SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the series record 17-6
WEBSITES: UNLVRebels.com, the official UNLV athletics website | GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): UNLV | Air Force
SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force by 7.2
FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 4.1
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTIONS: Air Force has a 79.31% win probability (31.96- 21.13)
It’s hard to believe we have arrived at Senior night already, as many Falcon players will take the field in front of their home crowd for the last time in their careers on Saturday. And what a special senior class this is, winning 31 games against just 11 losses in their tenure to date. The stakes for this team could not be any higher in their final game at Falcon Stadium in 2023.
Despite two absolute clunkers in as many weeks against Hawai’i and Army, the Falcons are still in the driver’s seat for a place in the Mountain West Conference Championship game in December thanks to their historic 8-0 start to the season. Though much has changed since those first eight games.
The Air Force list of injuries (should they “officially” share it) would be very lengthy. In fact, half of its’ starting roster would have been impacted by injury at this point, really testing their depth and mettle. Noone is going to feel sorry for the Falcons though, especially not the UNLV Rebels who are trying to put together a historic season of their own.
These are not your Rebels of old. Barry Odom has done a fantastic job turning what’s been a basement dweller into a Bonafide Conference Contender in his first season. Troy Calhoun on the other hand is trying to rally his team, injury ravaged as it is, and capture their first Conference Championship.
A third loss in a row would significantly complicate those aspirations for the Falcons. If they want to keep those hopes alive, they need to play much better in every aspect of the game against one of, if not the top team in the Conference.
HERE’S HOW AIR FORCE CAN BEAT UNLV
While it’s Air Force that usually imposes their will with a dominant ground attack, it’s the Rebels who are featuring a deep rushing attack of their own with Vincent Davis, Ja’Den Thomas, and Donavyn Lester all amassing more than 400 yards on the ground this year. The quarterback is also very much a threat on the ground, they need to account for Jayden Maiava too. As a team, they are averaging just under 200 yards per game on the ground.
The Falcons are going to need to keep that ground game in check if they want to win this game. If they aren’t able to mitigate damage on the ground, it could open up a host of problems as arguably the most dangerous player in the Conference, Ricky White looms on the outside.
Despite injuries to the defensive line and linebacker (spur), they still have the personnel to do it; especially between that core of Alec Mock, Jonathan Youngblood and Peyton Zdroik. These guys are going to be key in trying to keep UNLV unbalanced on offense.
Speaking of the run game, Air Force finds themselves in unfamiliar territory, no longer being the nation’s leading rush offense, as that belongs to Liberty. It’s no coincidence as the offense has been stuck in neutral for the past two weeks. Much of their drop off in production has to be attributed to their recent loose handling of the football.
Ten turnovers in their last two outings made for irrecoverable damage to their gameplan. They have put the ball on the ground 17 times this season, recovering seven of them. Their first interception of the year didn’t come until the week 10 game against Army. Between Zac Larrier, Jensen Jones and Ben Brittain, they’ve thrown four since then. That rate of turnover is not Falcon football, and it is certainly not winning football.
So, while injuries certainly have created some adversity, they’ve not been responsible for 10 turnovers in two games. Everyone is dealing with some level of attrition at this part of the season. Due to the rigors placed on these Cadet-Athletes, I would say Air Force is to anticipate such challenges more than most at this juncture. Whoever’s called upon to contribute Saturday, has to protect the football. It has got to be a point of emphasis if they want to beat a really good opponent.
The final area that really needs to find its way again is the kicking game. Specifically, Matthew Dapore and the field goal unit. Dapore has showed the potential of an All-Conference kicker but over the past few weeks has struggled with consistency. In a game where points are going to be critical and the margin for error minimal, they need that steady leg variety of Dapore back.
There are a lot of questions at key positions this week, especially on offense. One thing we know, next man up is not just a fashionable statement in Colorado Springs. This team has proven they can win with it at the core of their DNA.
Injuries or not, that 8-0 team is in the Air Force locker room. The past two weeks have been ugly, but those two performances constitute not the 2023 Air Force Falcons. This is still a very dangerous team that is more than capable of winning a Conference Championship if and when they get back to their game. Their game is meticulous to the details, stifling defense, and a relentless rushing attack that keeps the ball from you, not the other way around. That team has Air Force on the brink of a Conference Championship, despite what happened the previous two weeks.
After losing despite being 20+ point favorites, this week’s line looks right. UNLV is not going to like playing at altitude.
Air Force 24 – UNLV 21
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