fantasy football stock report – Page 2

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 8

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 8.

There was a time that if a quarterback threw 400 passes, there was something wrong with the offense – either it had no run game or the defense was awful and required the offense to throw to try to stay in games they were losing.

Those days are over. Now 500 is the new benchmark and is the reason why fantasy football quarterbacks tend to be devalued – because so many can put up big numbers. This is a growing phenomenon. In 2018, 15 quarterbacks threw 500 or more passes, including four throwing more than 600. In 2019, 15 threw 500 times or more with four topping 600. Last season, 15 threw 500 or more passes with three throwing more than 600 times and both of the Super Bowl quarterbacks (Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes) were in the top five for pass attempts.

Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow has thrown 212 passes, which, based on the historical 16-game schedule, would have him on pace to throw 485 times – and he ranks 24th in pass attempts. Brady leads the league with 303 pass attempts, which, if the pace continues, would see him finish the season (based on 16 games, not 17) throwing 693 passes.

While the 17-game schedule will change team and league records with the additional game to pile up stats, we’re at a strange time in the league where numbers created by quarterbacks and receivers continue to grow, and there’s no reason to think they will ever come back down.

You still have to be able to run effectively to win in the postseason, but it doesn’t seem to matter nearly as much in the regular season.

Here is the Week 8 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

TE C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals

At a time when tight end owners are feeling the pinch with George Kittle on IR, Darren Waller missing time, and just about everyone not named Travis Kelce struggling to put up consistent numbers, Uzomah had been s pleasant surprise. Over his last four games, he has posted more than 90 yards twice and scored five touchdowns. The majority of fantasy tight ends are played in hopes of picking up 40 or 50 yards and scoring a touchdown. Uzomah is making it harder to keep him out of lineups, and his price for daily players is going up as he becomes a bigger part of the Bengals offense.

RB Damien Harris, New England Patriots

It’s been a common refrain among fantasy owners for years that running backs in Bill Belichick’s offense don’t get the ball consistently enough and they’re all role players. Not this season. Harris has 95 carries – almost three times the number of carries for the other Patriots running backs combined (37) – has three 100-yard rushing games, and has scored five touchdowns. In his last two games, he has rushed 32 times for 207 yards and three TDs. He may not seem like a “must play,” but those numbers speak for themselves.

WR A.J. Green, Arizona Cardinals

Green went undrafted in most leagues, and there has been good reason for that – he’s fourth on his team in receptions. However, he has been targeted six or more times in five of seven games and, over his last four games, has 66 or more receiving yards in three of them. He is Kyler Murray’s go-to deep threat, averaging almost 17 yards per reception – three yards more per catch than Christian Kirk and four more than DeAndre Hopkins. He isn’t a guy you want to play every week, but he has a role in a high-powered offense, which brings value with it.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

All the talk around Miami is the potential that Deshaun Watson will be coming to town. Apparently Tua has heard those words. After missing three games due to injury, he’s had the most prolific two-week passing stretch of career, throwing for 620 yards and six touchdowns. There’s no telling if there is truth to the Watson rumors of whether Tagovailoa will be part of that trade or not, but he’s playing like a man who fears his job is on the line. While it isn’t translating into wins, it’s making fantasy owners giddy with excitement.

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RB Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams

When Cam Akers went down with an Achilles injury in July and Sony Michel was later acquired, the thought was they would be sharing the workload. That hasn’t been the case. Of the six games he has played, Henderson has never had fewer than 13 carries, is averaging 16 carries, and has scored five touchdowns. In the four games since missing Week 3 game against the Buccaneers, Henderson has 66 rushing attempts, while Michel has just 25. For what he has shown in Akers’ absence, he has earned his opportunity to stake his claim to playing time.

Fantasy Football Fallers

WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

Lack of production for Robinson has been a problem all season. He has played in all seven games and has caught just 23 passes. His high-water mark for receiving yardage in a game is just 63, he has five games with 35 or fewer receiving yards, and has scored just one touchdown. For a guy who came to rosters with the expectation of being an every-week starter, only the desperate are still playing A-Rob on weekly basis – and are getting burned consistently for doing it.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers

For a guy who, by all accounts, is playing for his football life as a starter. He can’t help but be looking over his shoulder at Trey Lance, and it sure doesn’t look like it he’s doing anything but paving the road for the transition. In the five games he has started, he has three games with 190 or fewer pass yards and, in his last two starts since the open competition with Lance began, he has thrown for just 346 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Everyone knows the job will eventually go to Lance, but Jimmy G is doing his best to speed up that process.

WR Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans

People are still treating Jones like the first-ballot Hall of Famer he is, but the numbers don’t lie and speak the truth that Jones is at the tail end of his career. He has missed two of the seven games the Titans have played and, of the five he has played in, he has more than three receptions in just one of them. He has only one game with 60 or more receiving yards, and his next touchdown as a Titan will be his first touchdown as a Titan. Playing him in fantasy lineups now is being done much more on reputation and recollection than his current production.

RB Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Up until Tampa Bay got to the playoffs last season, Jones was the main man in the Bucs backfield and Leonard Fournette was the No. 2 option. Fournette took over in the postseason and hasn’t looked back. Through seven games, Jones has just 41 carries for 181 yards and one touchdown with just one appearance with more than 27 rushing yards, which came in a blowout Sunday as Fournette was being rested. He isn’t used as a receiving back, because he has brought nothing to the table this season (three catches, 33 yards, no TDs). At this point, the only way Jones retains any fantasy value is if Fournette gets hurt. Until then, he’s little more than a handcuff – and not a productive one. Nobody likes to leave the defending Super Bowl champ, but a trade might be the best thing his career.

WR Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

In his first season with the Panthers, Anderson was a bargain find in PPR leagues, catching 95 passes for 1,096 yards and three touchdowns. He was touted as having chic fantasy star potential as an upside guy heading into this season. The results so far? 18 catches (on 49 targets!) for just 204 yards and two touchdowns. Things have gotten worse as the season has gone along. In his last three games, despite being targeted 25 times, he has caught just eight passes for 55 yards and one TD. Unless dropped passes becomes a way to score points in fantasy leagues, Anderson does more harm than good to an owner.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 7

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 7.

Every year when a team invests in a quarterback in the first round, there is one of two scenarios that tend to play out.

One is that they throw the guy in the first on Day 1 and take their chances. 2) Under ideal circumstances, the organization claims that it’s going to take time with the young quarterback and get him up to speed slowly.

That rarely happens. There were five quarterbacks taken in the first round this year and only two of them were slated to be starters right out of the gate – first overall pick Trevor Lawrence and second overall pick Zach Wilson. The other three were projected to be groomed.

That ended in New England with the surprise release of Cam Newton, ascending Mac Jones to the starting job for Week 1.

Then there were two.

The Andy Dalton Era in Chicago ended in Week 2 when he was injured and the job was given to rookie Justin Fields.

Then there was one.

The 49ers claimed that they intended to sit Trey Lance. He made is starting debut in Week 5 but is still nursing a calf injury coming out of the bye week, hindering his chance to stake a legitimate claim on the starting job from Jimmy Garoppolo.

If a quarterback (other than Jordan Love) is drafted in the first round, regardless of what a coach says, he becomes the starter sooner than projected and gets his chance to make his stand as a franchise guy – for better or worse.

If anything, that timeline is getting shorter all the time, but will it translate into seeing any of them enter upcoming editions of the Fantasy Football Market Report?

Fantasy Football Risers

RB Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

Being the primary running back in the Bears offense has been a pretty good gig this season. In the four games David Montgomery played before getting injured, he had a pair of 100-yard rushing games and scored three touchdowns. In the two games since he went down, Herbert has rushed 37 times for 172 yards and a touchdown. With injuries sidelining his in-house competition, Herbert could join the elite fantasy back by sheer production – 18 carries for 75 yards in Week 5 and 19 carries for 97 yards and a score last Sunday.

WR Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everyone keeps referring to Brown as the third wide receiver with the Bucs behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but that is in name only. Despite playing one fewer game that those two, Brown has 29 receptions (two behind Evans and five behind Godwin) and his 418 yards is second on the team (just two yards behind Evans). What makes Brown the more attractive option is that over the last three games is he leads the teams in targets (32), receptions (23), receiving yards (280) and touchdowns (3). He will still have stiff competition for receptions but has quickly become Tom Brady’s most used target.

QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts wasn’t a player anyone outside of Philly would have considered to be a regular fantasy starter, but he’s been about as consistent as any QB in the league in terms of not having the kind of game that loses a week for a fantasy owner. Through six games, he has accounted for two or more touchdowns in five of them. He has a pair of 300-yard passing games and is the Eagles’ leading rusher with 300 yards. At his current pace, he will rush for 850 yards and 14 touchdowns to go along with 23 touchdown passes. Most fantasy owners could live with those numbers, especially with the easiest part of his schedule coming up.

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RB Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs

The injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be a boom for Williams. While he didn’t post huge rushing numbers in his debut as the starter post-CEH, he rushed 21 times for 62 yards and scored two touchdowns. He accounted for 21 of the 24 rushing attempts for running backs for the Chiefs, and Andy Reid seems content to let him continue to be the primary (if not exclusive) running back in the system as long as Edwards-Helaire is out.

WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb has always been considered to be the No. 2 guy in the Cowboys’ pass offense behind Amari Cooper, but he has been putting together some very impressive weekly numbers. He leads the team in targets (49), receptions (33), receiving yards (497), average per reception (15.1), and is tied for the lead in touchdowns (4). He has four games with more than 80 receiving yards and, in his last two games, has blown up for 13 catches for 233 yards and three scores. Cooper may still be viewed as the top dog among Dallas receivers, but Lamb is making a case for himself that is pretty persuasive.

Fantasy Football Fallers

QB Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts

Wentz was drafted to either be a starter or in a platoon for someone who didn’t make a huge investment to land one of the top quarterbacks. However, he is starting to look much more like a game manager than a bona fide fantasy quarterback. He has thrown for more than 251 yards just once in six games and hasn’t accounted for more than two touchdowns in any game. At a time when QBs that can get you points with their legs and their arms, Wentz is a one-trick pony who doesn’t have a great trick. Over the last four games, he has rushed just nine times for 14 yards and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this season. If 240 passing yards, no rushing yards and two touchdowns are what you want from a quarterback, he’s your guy.

RB D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

Big things were expected of Swift this season and, while he hasn’t been awful, he hasn’t shown any explosiveness. He leads the team with 34 receptions and has 295 receiving yards and one touchdown, so he brings value there. What is troubling is that he in a time share with Jamaal Williams at running back and appears to be losing that battle. Williams is averaging a full yard more per carry (4.3) than Swift (3.3). Over 65 carries, Swift has had a single carry of more than 16 yards. His four touchdowns in six games has been his saving grace, but when 51 yards is your high-water mark for any rushing in a game, that’s a problem that will be worse if the touchdowns start to dry up.

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers isn’t having a bad season, but he was taken in drafts and auctions much higher this year than he was last year, because he was consistently dominant in 2020 on his way to the MVP. Last season, he threw for 280 or more yards 10 times and had three or more TD passes 12 times. Through six games, he has topped 280 yards just once and has three or more TD passes in just one game. Again, he is posting solid numbers (12 TD passes and two TD runs in six games). But, he just isn’t living up to the kind of expectations fantasy owners had coming off his brilliant 2020 season.

RB Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

Gordon was brought onto rosters to start more weeks than not, and it just hasn’t worked out with him. He is averaging fewer than 12 carries a game, has more than 60 rushing yards just once (in Week 1), and a long run of just 14 yards in the last five games. Over the last three weeks, Javonte Williams has had a carry of 30 yards or more in each game – the kind of production that gets you more opportunities. Those will come at the expense of Gordon, who has done little as a receiver with just 13 catches for 119 yards and no TDs in six games.

QB Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Mayfield has been nothing short of a bust most of the season. He has thrown just six passing touchdowns in six games, has four games with 246 or fewer passing yards, and has 11 or fewer rushing yards in five of six games. Granted, his top two receivers (Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry) have both missed time with injuries, but Mayfield’s production has fallen off hard after a strong finish to the 2020 season. He doesn’t look like a guy you want in your lineup every week with the expectation of winning, especially now that he’s nursing a shoulder injury.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 6

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 6.

Perhaps at no time during the 2021 season has having bench depth been more important to fantasy football owners. At a time when the bye weeks start depleting rosters, injury news (especially at running back) is causing a great gnashing of teeth for fantasy owners.

Owners gripe that there isn’t fantasy depth at running back on draft day, much less when players start dropping like flies. We’ve already seen promising fantasy prospects like Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Raheem Mostert and David Montgomery for the season. We’ve already seen Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Chris Carson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire missing time.

The bad news is we’re only five weeks into an 18-week season and, if history has taught us anything, the hits are going to keep on coming.

Fantasy football risers

RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

There is a lot to love about Robinson. It’s rare when you have an underdog “Rocky” type story, but Robinson has become that with two coaches who clearly didn’t believe in him. As a rookie last year, he got his shot only because the marriage with Leonard Fournette died an ugly death and he was cut a week before the start of the 2020 season. Robinson became the first undrafted rookie in NFL history to run for 1,000 yards. How did the Jags show their appreciation? The signed Carlos Hyde in free agency and used a first-round on Travis Etienne. Thanks a lot. After a brief time split, the Jags went back to Robinson in Week 3. In the three games since, he has rushed 51 times for 315 yards and has scored four touchdowns. He’s no longer a cute story. He’s a legitimate RB1 and nobody acknowledges it.

WR Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills

The Sanders signing had all the appearances of a Randall Cobb sort of deal. He’ll be the third guy in the wide receiver room and that will be that. Nobody got Manny down with that scenario. Through five games with an explosive pass offense, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have combined to score one touchdown. Sanders had four – in the last three games, where he has caught 13 passes for 222 yards and become the deep threat Diggs was last year. He’s still technically the No. 3 guy (No. 4 if you include Dawson Knox and his recent adventures), but Sanders is making it almost impossible for fantasy owners to keep him out of their weekly lineups.

RB Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

Few people respect the skills of Nick Chubb more than I do. That’s what made the Browns signing of Hunt so strange. Anyone who has Chubb likely doesn’t have Hunt as his handcuff, because Hunt is simply too talented to be available for handcuffing without having invested two picks on Cleveland RBs inside of the first five rounds. Chubb is still the main guy in the offense – in the last three games, he has rushed 63 times for 345 yards and one touchdown. Under ordinary circumstances, that would be death for the No. 2 guy. Hunt is the Browns’ leading receiver and, in the last three games, he has rushed 36 times for 211 yards and four touchdowns. At a time when running backs need to add touchdowns to the mix to win weeks for fantasy owners, Hunt is the rare breed who gets that done as a runner and receiver while clearly not being the No. 1 RB option with his team.

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Let’s be clear on this: Nobody is discussing Burrow in the MVP conversation. But, if you don’t have a Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert or Tom Brady on your roster providing the back-breaking numbers that help win you a week, you’re looking for consistency. Out of the gate in 2021, few have been as consistent as Burrow. He has thrown two or more touchdowns in every game and has topped 260 passing yards in three of those. He likely is a No. 2 QB on most rosters, but his consistency is his payoff. He has never left anyone who put him in their lineup empty-handed. That’s a skill savvy owners without the sexy QB names thrive on.

RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

This is a tough one to heartily endorse if not for the numbers. Connor is averaging just 3.2 yards a carry, but he has become the skinny version of Jerome Bettis of late-Steelers vintage. Back then, Fast Willie Parker is running between the 5s and Bettis bellyflops into the end zone for a quick six. Chase Edmonds and Kyler Murray are the main attractions in the Cardinals run game, but, when it gets to the goal line, Conner is the one calling for choppers. Over his last three games, his rushing average is brutal, but the bottom line is that he has rushed 39 times for 122 yards and five touchdowns. Look at how many RB1s have five rushing touchdowns. It’s a short list.

Fantasy football fallers

WR A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

In the season opener, Brown caught four passes for 49 yards and a touchdown. It’s hard to imagine that has been the high-water mark this season. His owners have played him three times since. In those three games, he has caught six passes for 81 yards and no touchdowns. Granted, anyone taking a Titans receiver understands Derrick Henry is going to have his days. But, even with the arrival of Julio Jones, in more cases than not, Brown was acquired to a fantasy roster as a WR1. He hasn’t lived up to that … even a little bit.

RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Jacobs was drafted as an RB2, unless you’re in a six-player league or avoided the position with your first two selections. He’s missed a game along the way and has scored three touchdowns, which is his only saving grace. In the three games he has played, he has rushed just 38 times for 122 yards and caught 10 passes for just 42 yards. If not for his three TDs, he would be a complete bust. Even with them, he isn’t worthy of being a guaranteed start every week.

WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

OBJ missed the first two games of the season, but in the three he has been back – without Jarvis Landry in the last two – he has been a liability. Last weekend, the Browns put up a ton of production. It didn’t include Odell. In his last two games, he has four catches for 47 yards. That’s it. He hasn’t been a good fit since he came to Cleveland, and nothing has changed.

RB David Johnson, Houston Texans

Johnson has lived off of 2016 more than anyone. When he had his breakout season in Arizona, he became a “made man” in the fantasy community. He still has fantasy cred in some circles, but it’s time to call it. His only touchdown came in Week 1 (a reception) and, through five games, he has 31 touches for 255 yards. Mark Ingram has 70 touches. It’s time to admit defeat where defeat is obvious. The J-Train has seen its last run.

WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

In the first two weeks of the season, Lockett had 12 catches for 278 yards and three touchdowns. In the three games since, he has 13 catches for 117 yards and no touchdowns. In that same period, DK Metcalf has 15 receptions for 270 yards and four touchdowns. Oh, and by the way, Russell Wilson isn’t coming back anytime soon. Think Geno Smith is going to produce the kind of numbers that make Lockett a must-play? Not the recipe for success that was manifested in Week 1 and 2. Penthouse to outhouse in a hurry.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 5

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 5.

There is a fantasy football trend becoming more popular all the time – complementing every-week stars in your lineups with players going against teams fielding high-powered offenses and shaky defenses that look worse when they’re in “prevent” mode to close out a win.

Opposing quarterbacks facing the Kansas City Chiefs have thrown for more yards than Patrick Mahomes. Opposing quarterbacks of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have thrown for more yards and thrown more touchdowns than Tom Brady. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Dallas Cowboys have thrown for almost 300 more yards than Dak Prescott. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Baltimore Ravens are averaging 293 yards a game. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Green Bay Packers have thrown more touchdown passes (10) than Aaron Rodgers has (8). The Rams are allowing more yards a game (397) than they’re producing (391).

The only exception to this has been the Buffalo Bills. After losing in Week 1 at home to Pittsburgh, they’ve outscored their opponents 118-21. They still beat up people the old-fashioned way, but for a lot of the teams getting the tout as being Super Bowl contenders thanks to their offenses, their own prowess is coming back to roost on their defenses.

The longstanding tradition of stacking your lineup against the dregs of the league will likely never go away. But with the aggressive offenses that are reaching the top, more people should be looking at when are the Chiefs, Bucs or Cowboys coming to town.

Here is the Week 5 Fantasy Market Report.

Fantasy Football Risers

RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

Patterson has never lived up to being a regular in fantasy lineups (at least those who aspire to win), because he’s never deserved to be. He’s bounced around the league and may have finally found his spot. Known more as the most dangerous kick returner in the game, he’s become the main scoring threat in Atlanta. He’s second on the team in receptions (18). But, Matt Ryan has thrown eight touchdown passes and four have been to Patterson. He also is second on the team in rushing (27-119) and has their only rushing touchdown. And he can still return kicks 109 yards to get you needle-in-the-haystack points. When one offense has nine touchdowns and one guy has five of them, you should want that guy.

TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Is Knox the Robert Tonyan of 2021? When evaluating the talent of the Buffalo pass game, Knox doesn’t come to mind, because he has just 15 catches for 144 yards. But, in his last three games, he has scored four touchdowns. When Josh Allen gets to the red zone, Knox is clearly his first choice, because he has scored one more touchdown than Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders combined.

WR D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

He doesn’t get mentioned a lot among the discussion of the league’s elite wide receivers, but few have been the sole focus of their QB. Sam Darnold is cocked and locked on Moore. He has double the targets of any other Panthers receiver, has caught 30 passes, including eight each in the last three games. His low-water mark for receptions and yards is six and 79, respectively. He’s been a fantasy scoring machine and still seems to be slightly flying under the radar for what he has accomplished.

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TE Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

The thing about tight ends in TE-mandatory leagues is that you have your handful of guys who are deemed to be elite, and then you have guys that get taken because they’re viewed as “red zone guys.” The Tonyan experience. Every few years, a pedestrian tight end catches lightning in a bottle with his quarterback and breaks out. Andrew Luck was really good at finding those guys. Schultz emerged last season when the ordained heir to the Jason Witten throne (Blake Jarwin) went down with injury. Jarwin is back but still an afterthought. He has been targeted just 12 times, catching nine of them. Schultz has been targeted 23 times and has caught 20 of them for 201 yards and three touchdowns. He’s gaining steam as the season goes on. In his last two games, he has caught 12 passes for 138 yards and three TDs – numbers that would surpass many of the big-name tight ends. He has Dak Prescott’s confidence. That’s worth something in fantasy football.

WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

I think everyone is in agreement that it may be time for Ben Roethlisberger to throw in the Terrible Towel and limp off into the sunset. But, aside from being a difficult “Wheel of Fortune” answer because of having every vowel in his first name, Johnson is tearing it up. He’s played only three games but has nine receptions of two them — 92- and 105-yard outings — and a touchdown in the other one. He has consistently brought fantasy owners to the pay window while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool lag well behind. It’s time to be jump off the Steelers bandwagon, but Johnson may be the exception to the rule.

Fantasy Football Fallers

TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Kittle has never been known as a huge touchdown scorer. His fantasy value has always been tied to receptions and yardage. He has neither this season. He hasn’t scored a touchdown – not a huge surprise given his career penchant for droughts – but he has four receptions in three of his four games and 40 yards or less in two of those. Those who have Kittle on their roster came into with the knowledge he won’t score 10 TDs, but there was a legitimate expectation for 100 receptions. You don’t get there when you’re collecting them four at a time.

QB Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints

In Week 1, Winston seemed to pound a stake into the heart of Drew Brees with a five-touchdown beatdown of the Packers. Since then? Not much. Through four games, he has thrown for 613 yards and provided little in the run game. It’s time to jump off any hope the Winston train will roll again.

RB Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

Sanders was brought onto rosters to be an every-week starter. He has yet to score a touchdown, and his rushing numbers gave gone down quickly and steadily (74-55-27-13). He has fewer rushing yards than his quarterback and fewer receptions than his backup. These are hard times for Sanders, and it doesn’t look to be getting any better, barring a significant change of course offensively.

WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

The fantasy football world has been waiting to see what Denver could have in the receiver tandem of Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Last year, they were denied because Sutton was injured. This year, they’ve been denied because Jeudy is hurt. Sutton has yet to score a touchdown and, with the exception of roasting Jacksonville (who doesn’t?) in his other three games, he has nine catches for 98 yards and no touchdowns. That gets old in a hurry.

TE Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

He was the golden boy last year and has just eight catches for 74 yards and a touchdown through four games – a standard daily stat line for guys like Kelce. He is one-trick pony. Last year, it was a great trick. This year? Not so much. If you aren’t supplying the bread, there’s no need for butter.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 4

Which direction are some of your fantasy players trending?

It’s never too early to be a step ahead of the rest of the owners in your fantasy football leagues. We’re heading into Week 4, which is the penultimate week before fantasy teams start crumbling and having their bench strength tested.

Thanks to an 18-week, 17-game schedule, bye weeks start in Week 6 and extend all the way to Week 14 – a record nine weeks with anywhere between two and six teams sidelined.

While some fantasy owners made a point to keep an eye on the bye weeks on the night of their auction or draft — in most cases, that was a month and a half ago. A lot of has changed on rosters since.

The NFL is going to get rid of 10 teams for a week in Weeks 6 and 7 – the Falcons, Saints, 49ers and Jets in Week 6 and Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers and Jaguars in Week 7. It’s an annual grind, but one not all owners in a fantasy league are aware of at this point.

You have two tasks as you head into Week 4, accomplished by quietly tipping away from the herd unnoticed. First is make sure you haven’t morphed into a roster that can get killed during a week or two of bye week season. Wins are hard enough to come by. You don’t give them away.

Second is to look at other teams that have owners who are too heavily invested in the 10 teams that are opening up the bye week period. Now is the time to see if you can swing a deal to “help them out” of their predicament.

A lot of times better positioning yourself comes with advanced scouting. Nobody else is talking about bye weeks now. By the time Week 4 is over, it’s going to be all the chatter heading into Week 5, because once Week 6 comes, there won’t be a week without byes until the weekend before Christmas.

Do your homework while others are oblivious.

Here is the Week 4 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Chase was a controversial franchise pick when OT Penei Sewell was on the board to be a decade-long anchor for Chase’s former college QB, Joe Burrow. However, through three games, he is making it impossible not to start him in fantasy lineups. He isn’t running the route trees of Tyler Boyd or Tee Higgins but is averaging 20 yards per receptions and has four touchdown catches – including on passes of 34, 42 and 50 yards. He is kind of a one-trick pony, but it’s a great trick. He can only get better as more routes are designed to make him the first option instead of the streaking deep threat. If you don’t have him, make a trade to get him. If you have him, the return offers may be crazy.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings

I’ve never been a fan of Cousins. He has tended to choke on the biggest stages at critical times of games and seasons. Every year, it’s difficult to endorse him as a full-time fantasy starter, but he has become a more polished field general. This season, he has thrown for 918 yards with eight touchdowns and a passer rating of 118.3. If you want a consistent option, Cousins is your guy. He has gone 17 straight games with a passer rating of 90.0 or above – only one player in NFL history under the passer rating standard has done that. That would be Peyton Manning (23). Name every great QB in the history of the game and, aside from Peyton, nobody other than Cousins can make that claim.

WR Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

The Texans are a hot mess, but they are forcing the ball to Cooks – their only viable offensive weapon. Everyone has suffered without Deshaun Watson in Houston’s offense. Cooks dominating the team’s target share (35.6 percent) is on par with that of Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams (35.8) over the first three weeks of the season. The Texans have thrown 90 passes – 32 to Cooks. They have completed 58 – 23 of them to Cooks. Nobody has more than nine targets or six receptions. It’s difficult to endorse anyone from the Texans. Given these numbers, some defenses may make it a mission to bracket him, but his value at the moment is as high as it may ever be.

QB Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers

I will be the first to admit that I’ve never been a “Darnold guy.” I thought he was overhyped coming into the draft and the Jets’ willingness to cut bait with him lent to that argument. However, in his first three games in Carolina, he has accounted for two touchdowns in each outing (three passing and three rushing), topping 300 passing yards twice and reaching 279 in the other. While he’s not getting a hearty endorsement, with bye week season coming up, it’s nice to have a replacement – even if just for a week – who has shown consistency in scoring points.

WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Typically we don’t put players who are obvious weekly fantasy starters, unless they’re playing so light’s out for your team, someone might come to you with a crazy trade offer to include him. Kupp is having that kind of start with Matthew Stafford. Through three games, Kupp has been targeted 33 times, caught 25 passes for 367 yards and scored five touchdowns. Robert Woods, on the other hand, has numbers of 19-11-124-1 through three games. Kupp has three more receptions than the next two Rams combined and has almost 100 more receiving yards than the next two teammates combined. It’s hard to imagine many fantasy owners with Kupp aren’t 3-0, because this is rarely seen dominance, especially with a new quarterback.

Fantasy Football Fallers

New England Patriots tight ends

Through three games, if a fantasy receiver had 20 catches for 184 yards and no touchdowns, he would be no great shakes. Unfortunately, those are the combined numbers of Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith (10-109-0 for Henry, 10-74-0 for Smith). Then there is the matter of their contracts (three years, $37.4 million for Henry, four years, $50 million for Smith). You kind of get the idea the front office thought Cam Newton was going to the be the QB when free agency opened. While both were likely brought onto fantasy rosters to be regular starters, they’re killing owners who have them.

WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

Diggs was the league leader in targets, receptions and yards in the league last year. This season, he has 19 receptions for 191 yards – never hitting 70 in any game – and one touchdown. He’s second on the team in receptions, third in receiving yards, and third in touchdowns on his own team, much less the league. With Josh Allen at the wheel, the big days will come along. But, for now, if fantasy owners have options, it won’t take long before they start looking elsewhere, if they have viable options and Diggs has an unfavorable matchup.

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor was an investment in most leagues to be RB1 and a cornerstone player. Granted, his first three games were against Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee – all playoff teams last year – but still, the numbers are pretty brutal. He hasn’t hit 65 rushing yards in a game, his number of carries has dropped in each contest (17-15-10), he has just eight receptions (six in Week 1 and two since), and he hasn’t scored a touchdown. For a Colts team that hasn’t won yet and has its season swirling like a toilet bowl, those forced to keep riding Taylor can’t wait for the Texans and Jags to show up.

TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

The fourth overall pick was expected to be an impact player right out of the gate. While he has flashed the ability to be a downfield threat, the reality is that he is fourth on the team in receptions – behind retread Cordarrelle Patterson for receptions, yards and touchdowns. In three games, he has caught just 11 passes for 139 yards and no TDs – with 35 or fewer yards in two of them. He’s going to be an immense talent, but, for now, he’s an anchor tied to a fantasy owner’s leg, and the Falcons don’t have the look of an offensive juggernaut anytime soon.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running backs

Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones were viewed not necessarily as starters, because they were slated to split time. But few could have expected how little they would have to split up. Fournette is the lead dog by default but has just 24 carries for 92 yards. Jones has just 15 carries for 52 yards. The only rushing touchdowns the Bucs have are from Tom Brady and Chris Godwin. Brady has thrown the ball almost six times as often as Fournette and Jones have run the ball. At this point, both are too poisonous to play, unless you’re forced into it.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 3

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 3.

People new to fantasy football often ask why running backs are the highest-paid in auctions and dominate the first round of every draft. It’s the same reason diamonds and gold are so expensive – they’re rare.

Running backs aren’t rare. Successful running backs are rare. Heading into Monday night’s game between the Lions and Packers, through two weeks of the 2021 season there were only 10 players who had rushed for 150 or more yards – and one of them was a quarterback (Lamar Jackson). On the flip side, 24 receivers had posted 150 or more yards and only one of them was a running back (Christian McCaffrey).

To make things even more pronounced, only one running back has accounted for more than 200 rushing yards (Derrick Henry). There are seven receivers with more than 200 receiving yards – and most if not all were available after a dozen running backs came off a draft board or broke a budget in an auction.

While quarterbacks and receivers are the ones who have the giant week that leads owners to victory, it’s having those few running backs capable of dominating that makes them so valuable.

It’s their rarity that makes them a commodity.

Here is the Week 3 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy football risers

RB Ty’Son Williams, Baltimore Ravens

When it comes to our “Risers” list, we typically look at players who are either available or undervalued. The Ravens’ run game is clearly dominated by Lamar Jackson, but the role of de facto running back seemingly is always up for grabs. Mark Ingram. Gus Edwards. Dobbins. They all got their shot. Latavius Murray was the odds-on choice to be the lead dog, but, through two games, Murray has 19 carries for 64 yards (3.4 a pop with a long of eight). Williams has 22 carries for 142 yards (6.5 per tote with a run of 20 or more in each game). The reason the mantle gets passed in this offense is that the Ravens go with the hot hand and, unless he gets injured, that’s going to be Williams moving forward.

TE Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Two weeks through the season and the leading scorer in the NFL is Tommy Boy’s running buddy Gronk. He has scored four touchdowns in two games – all in the red zone. When Tom Brady gets near the goal line, guys like Mike Evans get the shine. But at the outer and middle edge of the red zone is when Gronk and their shorthand history with each other comes into play. If you own Gronk, his value will never be higher. There’s one ball in Tampa Bay and Brady has to spread it around. If Gronk stays healthy – a really big “if” – he can put himself back in the 2021 TE Mount Rushmore conversation with Kelce, Waller and Kittle. In tight end-mandatory leagues, he’s been a godsend. You can get “Kelce-style” return in a trade right now for one reason – Gronk has earned that respect.

WR Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals

Quick quiz for you. Who leads the Cardinals in targets with 13? Who leads them in receptions with 11? Who leads them in yards with 182? The answer to all of those is Moore – a second-round rookie slot speedster who has quickly earned not only the confidence of Kyler Murray but also of the coaching staff. In most leagues, he is considered a fourth receiver. That’s A.J. Green. He’s making a case that Christian Kirk is the No. 3 guy and he and DeAndre Hopkins are 1-2. He’s going to make more believers.

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QB Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Carr’s name never gets mentioned in the discussion of elite quarterbacks, but those who have had him as a backup or a QB1b in a tandem system know better – at least in fantasy terms. The Raiders aren’t shy about passing. Everyone knows that. But, they’re 2-0 in large part because Carr has thrown for 817 yards and four touchdowns. Keep in mind, these wins weren’t against the Jaguars and Texans. These were the Ravens and Steelers. If he is somehow still in a rotation, that has to stop, and he needs to be No. 1 and No. 1a, at worst.

WR Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Williams is no stranger to fantasy owners. He has been the Keenan McCardell of his era. He’s good for five or six passes for 60 or 70 yards and the occasional TD when pressed into a lineup. Last year in the first season paired with Justin Herbert, he was almost forgotten – catching 48 passes for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Those weren’t awful numbers, but they didn’t keep him in a fantasy lineup. In his first two games, Williams has 15 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns – about 30 percent of his 2020 numbers. Herbert has a new running buddy who requires acknowledgement.

Fantasy football fallers

RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Numbers speak volumes in the NFL. Numbers scream volumes in fantasy football. Christian McCaffrey and Barkley were No. 1 and 2 picks in most fantasy drafts in 2020. Both went down early to significant injuries. McCaffrey has reclaimed his spot. Barkley? Not so much. Two games into his Saquon 2.0 version, he has 23 carries for 83 yards, three catches for 13 yards and 39 fewer rushing yards than his quarterback. Seeing as 41 of Saquon’s 83 rushing yards came on one play, this is a time for legitimate concern and quiet reflection. How many more dud weeks can you take if you’re counting on Barkley?

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger is glacial, so rushing points are a happy accident. If you’re playing Big Ben, it’s for passing production. Two games in, that translates to 483 yards and two touchdowns – numbers that won’t win weekly head-to-head matchups against just about anybody. He’s obviously part of a two-QB plan for those who have him on their rosters, but, against both the Bills and Raiders – admittedly two quality teams – he hasn’t earned a spot in a lineup where he is the QB1b. Toss in news of a recent left pectoral injury, and he’s QB2 unarguably and cut-bait for the twitchy.

WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

In many circles, Robinson was viewed as a WR1 if you were in a 12-player league – 10-player in some. The obvious question was with which quarterback is he going to be that guy? Through two games with both QBs, he has eight catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. He’s transformed from a WR1 to an opponent-based play. Who would have seen this coming? Everyone? Targeted 15 times. All contested. Some double-contested. Until someone else emerges as a legitimate threat, he keeps getting doubled.

TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

There was a time when, in tight end-mandatory leagues, if you had Ertz, you were talking tough. Now, you’re duck-and-cover. On a modest Eagles offense, he is seventh in targets and seventh in receptions. There was a time that those were league totals, not team totals. Four targets in two games. Smells like a draft night gamble turned waiver wire if you want him. You can have him.

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor was a guy that, if you were in auctions, bidding wars at times got a little out of hand. He was a hill to die on for some auctioneers. It hasn’t been a lack of opportunities with 32 carries for 107 yards and no TDs. And that was with seven in the box. Now there should be nine – eight at a minimum. Not ideal with a QB with two bad ankles.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 2

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 2.

I was involved in a football roundtable discussion leading up to the start of Week 1 and the moderator asked, “What preposterous statement can you make about the 2021 season?”

I offered to go first.

“All four teams from the NFC West will make the playoffs.”

The rest were in unanimous agreement that my idea was preposterous. Last year was the first time such a concept was possible, but these are four teams built to win now. Russell Wilson has never had a losing season. Many project Seattle to finish last in the division. San Francisco has the personnel on both sides of the ball to make a Super Bowl run – their betting odds to make it show that. The Los Angeles Rams like to go all-in for a short-term run and felt all that was missing was a QB and traded for Matt Stafford. Arizona won eight games last year and is viewed by many as the trendy team to make the next big jump to relevance and dominance.

The new playoff format has four division champions and three wild cards in each conference. It can logically be assumed that Tampa Bay and Green Bay will be the prohibitive favorites to win their divisions. Someone has to win the NFC East crown. Beyond two-and-a-half teams, what team would you take right now over any of the four teams in the NFC West to make the playoffs in a head-to-head bet?

In Week 1, none of them played each other and they went 4-0. Three were on the road. Three were against 2020 playoff teams. And they won them all.

Thanks to the expanded schedule, what you do in the division has less of an impact if you have four quality teams than it ever has. Only six of the 17 games are played against division rivals. The other 44 games they collectively play will be against teams from other divisions (4-0 to start that slate), including the NFC North and AFC South.

Injuries may derail one of them, but it can’t derail all of them. Pay attention to the non-division games the NFC West plays this year. The only reason we won’t see more 4-0 weeks is that they’re going to start playing each other. It’s too early to be flying the “Mission Accomplished” banner, but we may be witnessing history that will be hard to replicate.

Here is the Week 2 Fantasy Football Market Report.

Fantasy football risers

RB Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers

Injuries help make careers and the 49ers have made their share in recent years at running back because of injury. Mitchell, a sixth-round rookie, was supposed to be an afterthought on the practice squad. However, an injury to Jeff Wilson and a healthy scratch of third-round rookie Trey Sermon, left Mitchell as the next man up. He responded with 19 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown and made a case that he should be in the mix at a minimum and the lead dog at a maximum considering Raheem Mostert is out an expected eight weeks.

QB Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints

With so many weapons missing from the New Orleans offense, it’s insane that Winston threw just 20 passes in his debut as the front man for the Saints. He completed 14 of them and, of those, five went for touchdowns. While one game doesn’t a fantasy starter make, one thing seems certain: Putting the boots to Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers has earned Winston the designation as the unquestioned starter – something that wasn’t a guarantee heading into Week 1. Winston was on the field for 60 of the Saints 62 offensive plays. He’s the starter – for better or worse and can be had on the waiver wire.

WR Corey Davis, New York Jets

There were a couple other mid- to late-round fantasy receivers I considered here (Deebo Samuel and Ja’Marr Chase), but Davis was a player who, despite being handed the No. 1 receiver job with the Jets, was an extremely modest acquisition for a fantasy owner. In his debut, Zach Wilson spent most of the day running for his life. Most of his completions were of the short slant variety, but Davis caught five passes for 97 yards (a 19.4-yard average) and two touchdowns. The Jets didn’t win, and Wilson didn’t look great, but it was obvious Davis is the clear-cut No. 1 guy for Wilson. They’re only going to get more comfortable with each other as the year goes by.

RB Mark Ingram, Houston Texans

There are certain guys I seemed to end up with every year. One who comes to mind is Frank Gore of Indy vintage. He would be my third or even fourth running back because everyone else projected him to hit the wall. He didn’t … until about seven years after that chatter started. He was a draft-and-trade guy in late September. I’ve always loved Ingram. He was ready to bust out before Alvin Kamara showed up in the Big Easy, and they meshed nicely – although cutting into each other’s value. In Baltimore, he showed out before he was quietly shown the door. Any running back for Houston is a problem because they’re going to be behind a lot this year. But, in Week 1, he had 26 carries – 11 in the first half and 15 in the second half. Granted, he only had 85 yards (3.3 a carry), but scored a touchdown. When you’re looking for depth, he’s not going to maintain that workload, but it’s nice to know it’s there. At worse, he’s a 1-yard belly flop for a touchdown late. If Ingram played Jacksonville every week, he’d be a starter every week, but there is value here.

QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

I will be the first to admit that I’m not a big fan of Hurts – he strikes me as a poor man’s combo of Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. However, the Eagles thought enough of him to cut bait on Carson Wentz and stick with cribbage buddies Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew. A lot of quarterbacks fatten their stats against Atlanta, but Hurts had arguably the best game of his career, all things considered. He completed 27 of 35 passes for 264 yards and three touchdowns. He had an incredible target share for the seven players to whom he threw. He had three TD passes to three different guys and no interceptions. And he ran seven times for 62 yards. He hasn’t reached the point that you bench a pedigreed starter to put him in, but he’s getting closer.

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Fantasy football fallers

RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

What makes Week 1 so troubling for those who used a first-round pick on Elliott was that the Cowboys were never in deep hole. Yet the Cowboys dropped back to pass 63 times and Elliott had 11 carries. Whether that was a one-game anomaly or not against a dominant run defense, it sure looked like an offense fully prepared to pass 50 times like it did when Dak Prescott was lighting up the NFL in September 2020. The fact Elliott had 11 carries for 33 yards and two receptions for six speaks unseemly toward his consistent role. The one takeaway was that, although the Cowboys had a chance to win Thursday night, they lost. That may have changed the tempo had they given Zeke a chance to do what he does.

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

The thing the separates great quarterbacks from good ones and good one from bad ones is the regularity with which they have an absolutely garbage game. Donning a man bun and looking almost disinterested, Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst games of his career against New Orleans. Considering it was his first game after his redemptive MVP award, he couldn’t have looked worse. He completed just 15 passes on 28 attempts for 133 yards, no touchdowns — throwing two picks — for a passer rating of 36.8. Nobody who has him is going to bench him, but it least it has to creep into consideration if anything close to this continues.

RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

Often when Minnesota struggles, it is because they don’t get the ball in Cook’s hands often enough. That wasn’t the case in Week 1. He had 26 touches, which, for Cook, should translate into 150 total yards and a couple of touchdowns. He had 20 carries for 61 yards (3.1 per carry) and had six catches for 43 yards (7.2 yards per). The problem isn’t Cook. He still managed 100 total yards and a touchdown. But, his offensive line is hideous – maybe the worst in the league. Things aren’t going to get appreciably better until they have a starting five they can live with – and the left tackle (when he plays) is a rookie. Injuries kill fantasy players and sub-standard starters don’t do much better.

WR Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans

In his debut with the Titans, of the 36 passes targeted to receivers, only six came Julio’s ways. Two that he caught each went for 10 yards. One went for nine. And he got called out by his new coach for a stupid penalty. There is no questioning that Jones is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he is out of his comfort zone for the first time in his career. The early returns are brutal, which could lend to making a low-ball offer of magic beans to a Jones owner because things will get better, but he is known for lapses in production that string together. He will be benched more this week than perhaps any time in his career.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

When CEH was drafted by the Chiefs, the dreams of huge things were running through Andy Reid’s head. Edwards-Helaire’s rookie season was supposed to be the making of legend. It wasn’t. In 13 games, he had three outings with 70 or more rushing yards and two games with more than 40 receiving yards. That was with Le’Veon Bell and Darrel Williams cutting into his time. He didn’t lack for opportunity in his second act. He had 14 of the 16 running back carries and had three receptions. They accounted for 72 yards – 43 rushing, 29 receiving. A trend becomes a trend when it continues.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 1

Fantasy football player value trends entering Week 1.

There has been an old coaching axiom that if an offense throws too often, it’s a sign of failure – you lose more times than you win if you throw 50 times. But, we’re living in the middle of seismic shift in the NFL – a transformation by design.

Typically, the NFL didn’t change with the times. As college programs perfected “gimmick offenses” and three and four receivers became the norm, it has slowly made its way up to the NFL. Two generations into this metamorphosis, throwing 40 to 50 times a game is no longer the kiss of death.

In the first 90 years of professional football, only 15 quarterbacks attempted more than 600 passes in a season. In the last 10 seasons, the number has grown to 50 as 35 quarterbacks have thrown more than 600 passes from 2011-20. Prior to 2006, only nine quarterbacks had thrown more than 600 passes in a season. Since 2007, Drew Brees matched that total by himself, posting nine of the top 26 seasons for pass attempts, and Tom Brady has done it six times – including last year when he won the Super Bowl with Tampa Bay.

In fantasy football all that matters is scoring points, and a QB who throws a ton has value – even if he isn’t elite. The 50 guys who have thrown 600 or more passes in a season includes Joe Flacco (twice!), Jared Goff, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles and Jay Cutler. Flacco has the same number of appearances on this list as Peyton Manning, as well as the career total of Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre combined. Finding the guy who is chucking the ball all over the yard on a weekly basis for a mediocre or bad team can be a valuable asset as a backup QB.

Here is season kickoff Fantasy Football Market Report.

Fantasy football risers

Backup running backs

Many fantasy owners hate the idea of handcuffing one of their top running backs with his backup, but injuries always happen at the position. Last year, we weren’t even a month into the season and the top two selections in most drafts and auctions (Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley) were gone.

We’ve already seen promising young players J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne and Cam Akers go down for the season, propping up the value of Gus Edwards, Darrell Henderson and James Robinson – all of whom proved themselves last season when pressed into duty. The hits will keep on coming, and more backups will be thrust in the limelight.

Downfield tight ends

In most drafts and auctions where wide receivers and tight ends are clumped together, the TEs get the short end of the stick, being devalued when in direct draft competition with wide receivers. But, last year, there were 14 tight ends who caught 50 or more passes, including two (Darren Waller and Travis Kelce) catching more than 100 balls and three who caught nine or more touchdowns (Kelce, Waller and Robert Tonyan).

That list doesn’t include George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Zach Ertz, Jonnu Smith, Jack Doyle, Dallas Goedert, Austin Hooper, Cameron Brate, Kyle Rudolph and O.J. Howard – all players with 50-plus reception resumes and potential – and fourth overall draft pick Kyle Pitts. Don’t sleep on tight ends, because more than half the teams in the NFL have one (or more) capable of big things.

The NFC West

By all accounts, the 2021 season for the NFC West is going to be a weekly bloodbath/track meet. With four distinctly unique offenses and a recent deep playoff run for three of them, they know what it means to win often and win big. The other – Arizona – is one of the bandwagon teams people looking for a “Next Big Thing” sleeper are latching onto. All four are legitimate playoff contenders and all could end up making the postseason – thanks in part to landing the NFC North and AFC South in their non-division schedules.

There is a chance that for the first time in NFL history every team from one division makes the playoffs, which makes each game count more than most and will likely have all of them playing full-out down the stretch of the regular season … because they will have to.

Cowboys receivers

Fans may have forgotten the incredible pace the Dallas offense was setting before Dak Prescott went down in Week 5 last season. Through the first four games of the season, Amari Cooper had 37 catches for 401 yards and one touchdown. CeeDee Lamb had 21 catches for 309 yards and two touchdowns.

While those numbers would have been difficult to maintain over a full season, at the quarter pole of 2020 the Dallas offense was showing no signs of slowing down. Dak is back and so are the expectations that the Cowboys offense can be the most potent in the league.

Old quarterbacks

Much of the focus of the NFL world is on the shiny new quarterbacks who are going to lead the next generation of the game, but of the 10 quarterbacks that had a passer rating of 100.0 or above last season, seven of them were in their seventh NFL season or later – Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Brady, Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr. The young guys get much of the attention, but the old guys continue to show why they’re franchise quarterbacks and that they can still get the job done at a high level.

Fantasy football fallers

Placeholder quarterbacks

Every year, organizations make the claim that, in a perfect world, they’re going to give their first-round rookie quarterbacks a “redshirt season,” if possible. It never happens. At some point the future becomes the present and the rookie gets thrown in. This season, teams aren’t even waiting. Jacksonville shipped out Gardner Minshew to pave the way for Trevor Lawrence. The New York Jets traded Sam Darnold to do the same for Zach Wilson. New England cut Cam Newton to anoint Mac Jones as the starter. How long do Andy Dalton and Jimmy Garoppolo have to be their respective starters? Probably until their first bad game or injury that brings the Justin Fields or Trey Lance, respectively, off the bench and allows history to repeat itself.

Any Buccaneer not named Brady

The defending champs have an embarrassment of riches coming back for one more title run, but in fantasy terms, they have too many quality players. Fantasy owners want a clear stud who leads his team, like Derrick Henry, Davante Adams or Travis Kelce. Those guys are dominant every week. The Bucs have too much depth at fantasy positions to make the individuals as valuable as they should be.

At running back, they have Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard – all of whom will likely have a specific role that cuts into the others’ time.

They have All-World wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but you also have Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson – all of whom have carved out a role for themselves. At tight end? Gronk, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate – all of whom are strong red zone targets. There’s only one ball and too many guys who want it. Brady should be in line for big numbers again, but the rest of the fantasy position players will find a lot of competition among one another.

Ravens receivers

Baltimore has made significant investment in receivers over the last four years, using first-round draft picks on Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman and third-round picks on Mark Andrews, Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay. But the problem with Ravens receivers is obvious – Baltimore doesn’t throw enough. Lamar Jackson played in 15 games last year and had 376 pass attempts. Eight quarterbacks had more completions than that and several others were close.

It’s by design in Baltimore. The Ravens had the top-rated run game in the league (191.9 yards) last season and the 32nd-ranked passing attack (171.2 yards) – continuing a trend of being a dominant run offense and one of the lowest-ranked pass offenses. Jackson has a career record of 30-7 as a starter – due in large part to the Ravens’ run game. You need opportunities in fantasy football and the Ravens just don’t pass enough to make a ton of chances possible for their receivers, because the team makes its makes money running the ball.

Road warrior quarterbacks

One of the side effects of COVID-19 last season was empty stadiums. One of the great advantages a home team routinely has in the NFL was a raucous home crowd that could elicit a false start or two and generally make life miserable for a QB trying to audible out of a call. It should come as no surprise that veterans, like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady, had some of the highest passer ratings of their careers. For younger QBs who posted career-best numbers, the fans are going to be back, and the decision-making process is going to be more difficult.

Anyone from Houston

With the exception of expansion teams, no other team in NFL history has undergone a greater internal upheaval than the Texans. There has been so much turmoil surrounding this team, some projections say if Houston has a record of 4-13, it will be overachieving. There aren’t many times you don’t want a single player from a team on your roster. The 2021 Texans may be that team.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 5

One month into the NFL and fantasy football season, some players are moving up the charts quickly while others are near rock bottom.

We are in a transition season in the NFL. Whether it was COVID-19 that kept teams from building up to the regular season or simply the tipping point of games being predominantly high-scoring, what has happened through four weeks in the 2020 NFL is startling and unprecedented.

Teams are routinely scoring 30 points or more – at a record-setting pace.

To put it in perspective, in the previous five seasons – four of those consisting of 63 games because of the start of bye season and one with 64 – there was a consistency to how many teams would have a high-scoring game of 30+ points. From 2015-19, through four weeks of the season, the numbers of teams who scored 30 or more in a game was a near-flat line (30-32-28-33-28). That’s crazy consistent.

Heading into Monday’s Atlanta-Green Bay game, there had been 62 games played. In those games, 51 teams scored 30 or more points in a game. Green Bay became the 52nd when they dropped 30 points on Atlanta.

In the previous five years, it tended to be only one team that scored 30+. Of the 151 teams that scored 30 or more, they won 85 percent of the games (128-23).

Last year, if you scored 30 in Weeks 1-4, you had a winning percentage of more than 89 percent (25-3). This year? Teams scoring 30 or more points won 39 games, but 12 who also scored 30 have lost. That’s an average of three games a week in which both teams hit that lofty number and they combined to have a winning percentage of 76.5 percent.

Is it a sign of the times? Is it a sign of no training camp or preseason that has given offenses the clear edge to move the ball? All fantasy players know is that points are up and they like it that way…unless the bomb drops on them.

Here is the Week 5 Fantasy Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

There’s a strange simpatico fantasy owners have with Dallas quarterbacks. Guys didn’t love Tony Romo, but drafted him every year because they wished for Dallas to fall behind by double digits early and it was game-on for garbage points trying to come back.

Over the last three weeks, Prescott has thrown for an ungodly 1,424 yards with eight touchdown passes and three TD runs. His pass-yardage total has been 450, 472 and 502. Who cares if his team sucks. He’s taking fantasy owners to the pay window all by himself.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns

Sometimes Dame Fortune smiles on a guy. In 2017, I was in three leagues. The only player I had in all of them was Hunt. He was incredible. His career took a major backward step, but, as the clear No. 2 guy in Cleveland – he hasn’t had more than 17 touches in a game – he has managed to rush for 275 yards and has scored five touchdowns in his last three games.

With Nick Chubb down for a month or more, Hunt has every chance to relive his eye-popping rookie season.

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The word, as it has been every time Brady has struggled in the first couple of games, was that he was washed up. He’s hit the wall. In his first two games with the Bucs, he didn’t hit 240 yards, had as many interceptions (3) as touchdowns and had a passer rating under 80.0.

In the last two games? 666 passing yards (make what you want out of that) with eight touchdowns, one pick and a passer rating over 116.0. Seems like the Brady we remember…again.

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks

If consistency is what you’re looking for, look no further. In four games, he has caught four passes in each. That would be reason for benching in a lot of leagues. But, he has yardage totals of 95, 92, 110 and 106. He has averaged 23 yards a catch or better in every game (25.2 overall) and has scored a touchdown in three of four games.

Metcalf is going to be a superstar and won’t be had as reasonably as he has been his first two season on fantasy draft day. Russ is going to get him paid – whether with Seattle or somewhere else.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

This is a sneaky play designed for being an option when bye weeks hit. He hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards in any game, but his carry-share has been going up significantly. He has scored a rushing touchdown in each of the last three games and his competition in the Washington backfield is quickly disappearing, while his is stock is going up.

Nobody with other viable options will start Gibson, but he could be nice to have on your roster as a throw-in on a trade to stash in case COVID times get desperate.

Fantasy Football Fallers

Josh Jacobs, RB, Oakland Raiders

Jacobs was selected on fantasy rosters to be that owner’s No. 1 running back. When he rushed for three touchdowns in Week 1, he was locked into lineups regardless of what followed. Since then, his rushing attempts have dropped (27-16-15), his yardage has dropped (88-71-48), he is little more than a check-down receiver and he hasn’t scored a touchdown. You can’t bench him because of his role in the Vegas offense. You may want to. You just can’t.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Jackson is a polarizing player. By any measure, he should have Julian Edelman-style reception numbers, yet he has never been able to be anything more than a one-trick pony. And, in his second run in Philadelphia, he’s been cashing checks and showing nothing. A quarter of the way through the season, he has 10 catches for 121 yards, no touchdowns and is nursing an injury. If you have him on your roster, cut him or trade him immediately. He’s taking up space that could be better utilized by someone else.

Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants

In leagues in which tight ends are mandatory, there have been a lot of big days posted along the way. Not by Engram. He is the Giants leading receiver in terms of targets (30) and catches (17), but he’s Marcedes Lewis 2.0.

For all his athleticism and talent, he averaged 7.7 yards a catch with only one of more than 12 yards and has no touchdowns. Those in TE-required leagues likely aren’t benching him, but they’re getting beat in their weekly position battles by their opponents because Engram is giving them scraps.

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

Montgomery was one of those guys in draft rankings that was expected to become an elite fantasy back. You shook the Magic 8-Ball. “All Signs Point to Yes.”

The Bears have been playing light’s out defense, which typically gets a running back a lot of play. But, through four games, Montgomery has just 53 carries for 218 yards and no touchdowns – and 24-72-0 rushing numbers over the last two – and his only touchdown was on a check-down pass that broke wide open. He was drafted to be an NFL RB1, but hasn’t showed it.

Irv Smith, TE, Minnesota Vikings

When Minnesota drafted Smith last year, the thought was that he would take over the role Kyle Rudolph has as one of the most potent Red Zone tight ends in the league. Instead, through four games, Smith has been healthy, but targeted just six times, catching two passes for 14 yards and no touchdowns. He’s rendered himself unplayable and, at this point, most people who took a flyer on him have bailed.

Fantasy Market Report: Week 1

Fantasy football player trends and stock updates entering Week 1.

Every NFL season brings a sense of buildup and excitement from the draft to training camp to the preseason – all a prelude to when winning and losing counts. However, as with the rest of our lives in many respects, the COVID-19 pandemic has already created scenarios many deemed to be impossible.

Sports have been forced to adapt and change to the “new normal.” The NBA and NHL put their seasons on hold for five months and Major League Baseball was forced to eliminate 100 games just to get the 2020 season in.

What makes the NFL unique is that it can’t have a scenario under which a team gets shut down if there is an in-house outbreak. In baseball, you can make up games missed by playing doubleheaders. In the NFL, that isn’t possible. You can’t have teams playing four games in two weeks to get caught up. If one team is ravaged with positive COVID-19 tests, the game will still continue unless the NFL opts for a league-wide shutdown for two weeks or so to let the virus clear.

There are far more unknowns going into the 2020 season than we have ever seen at the start of a season. There are some who believe we will see a full season play out, while others are just as convinced the hurdles facing the NFL will result in a stoppage at some point or teams being without some of the star players for extended periods outside of the typical injuries suffered.

A week from now, we will have a much better handle on the status of in-team competitions for playing time, but one thing is certain – 2020 is going to be a season the likes of which the NFL has never experienced.

Here is the pre-start of the season Fantasy Market Report for Week 1. Once we start seeing how rosters shake out once games begin, we will move forward as normal with the FMR determining whose stock is rising and falling.

Fantasy football risers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers fantasy players – Tampa Bay already had quality fantasy talent in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate – all of whom have been solid fantasy producers – but the addition of Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette and Rob Gronkowski suddenly makes this offense look as daunting as just about anyone in the league. But, many were saying the same about Cleveland last year, and we know how that turned out.

Young running backs – There were some surprises when running backs started popping off the draft board in April, as draftees were coming to teams that already had an established running back expected to be the featured back. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Cam Akers (Rams), D’Andre Swift (Lions), Jonathan Taylor (Colts), A.J. Dillon (Packers), J.K. Dobbins (Ravens) and Zack Moss (Bills) are all earning buzz that not only will they have a prominent role in their respective offenses, most of them could end up being the lead dog by season’s end. It’s been some time since so many rookies have been viewed as potential featured backs in their rookie season.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – Last year, most fantasy projections had Murray as a middle-of-the-road fantasy quarterback and he resembled that remark. He was 15th in passing yards and tied for 21st in passing touchdowns. What got him into fantasy lineups was that he was second only to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards (544) and scored four rushing touchdowns. As with the last two MVPs – Patrick Mahomes and Jackson – entering his second season, huge things are expected from Murray and he currently sits as a top-five QB in many rankings. If history repeats itself, he will worth that dice roll on greatness.

Roster diversity – As noted earlier, COVID-19 is going to create a strange new world in the NFL. If a team has numerous players test positive, the show must go on and it will create problems for fantasy owners if some of their star players are suddenly down for two weeks or more. As a result, fantasy owners are being advised to diversify their rosters as much as possible. The days of matching up a quarterback and his top receiver are temporarily on hold, making it an ideal time for owners to get as many players from different teams as possible simply to cover their own backs.

Tight ends – There have been times when only a couple tight ends were deemed must-start fantasy players. For a time, those two were Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates. Later it was Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. With the changing dynamic of NFL passing games, you have a solid top five tight ends – Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller – not to mention a slew of young talents looking to join their ranks, including Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Austin Hooper, Hayden Hurst and Irv Smith, to name a few. As the game changes, it is a great time to be a tight end with downfield ability.

Fantasy football fallers

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Just a couple of years ago, Rodgers was viewed as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Now, he can be had as a backup QB in just about every league regardless of size. The conventional wisdom was that, in the deepest wide receiver draft class in 20 years, the Packers would use a premium pick on a wide receiver to groom opposite Davante Adams. Instead, the Packers drafted Rodgers eventual replacement (Jordan Love) in the first round, added a running back in the second round (A.J. Dillon) and, despite having nine picks, didn’t use any on wide receivers. You’re on your own, A-Rod.

Old running backs – Running back remains the focus of the first couple of rounds of fantasy drafts and the big money in auctions, but being a running back over 30 is a death sentence. Three Hall of Famers are still in the league, but are being buried. Adrian Peterson is now with Detroit – his fifth team in five years. Frank Gore is with the Jets – his fourth team in four years. LeSean McCoy is with Tampa Bay – his third team in three years. None are ready to get their Hall of Fame clock activated, but their short shelf life with teams may end up starting it for them.

New England Patriots fantasy players – Not too long ago, Patriots fantasy players were selected en masse and often taken early when positions started getting picked over. With Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski gone, Cam Newton is going extremely late (if at all) in drafts and auctions, the backfield-by-committee waters down the value of all their running backs and Julian Edelman is the only receiver getting any attention and that isn’t until the late rounds. Even their kicker has been devalued. This will be a big test for Bill Belichick because the fantasy stock of Patriots has taken a giant hit.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns – Heading into 2019, Mayfield was the hottest rising property in the fantasy world. The addition of Odell Beckham gave the Browns offense talent across the board and Mayfield was expected to take the next step as a QB. Instead, the Browns fell flat and much of the blame was placed at the feet of Mayfield. As he enters 2020, he is in a watershed season that, if things go south again, could get the Browns to look in another direction after the season.

New coaching staffs – Fans may not realize how much repetition goes into an offseason program. Coaches work their players in practices, OTAs, training camp and the preseason. All of those were altered or eliminated by COVID-19. For teams with a veteran coaching staff, it wasn’t as impactful, because of the familiarity between coaches and players. For new coaches, however, the pandemic robbed them of the opportunity to get in the reps needed from May to August to properly evaluate their players. That lack of hands-on work could adversely impact fantasy players from those teams early in the season, making those players a much bigger risk to have in your fantasy lineup the first month of the season.