Cordarrelle Patterson fantasy football

Will fantasy owners capitalize on an investment in Tyler Allgeier?

A late-round selection could pay off nicely for those willing to take a chance.

Despite not being chosen until the fifth round, Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier, the 12th of 23 RBs selected, drew some offseason buzz from fantasy football owners because he was stepping into a potentially advantageous situation. Now that training camp and the preseason are in the rearview mirror, however, it’s time reexamine Allgeier’s outlook for 2022.

One of the things that jumped off the page for fantasy owners was Allgeier’s role at BYU as a true workhorse type of back — to that end he carried the ball 276 times as a senior and led FBS in rushing touchdowns with 23. He’s also strong in pass protection, which should make him a viable option in the Falcons backfield regardless of down and distance. Allgeier is a tough, physical runner that drew some comps to Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner.

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The rookie didn’t exactly shine during camp or the preseason, however, carrying the ball 17 times for 68 yards and a touchdown. That included an eight-carry stint in the finale against the Jacksonville Jaguars when both Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams were held out. If the Falcons had seen what they felt they needed to see of out Allgeier to that point, he likely would’ve joined them on the sidelines, which is what we saw with the Houston Texans and fellow rookie running back Dameon Pierce.

At this point, the depth chart has Patterson, who converted from receiver to running back last year, at the top. That was always to be expected, but the team’s most versatile weapon is never going to be a down-in, down-out grinder who runs between the tackles. He had 1,166 offensive yards and 11 combined TDs on 205 total touches a year ago, and it’s hard to imagine they’ll ask much more than that in 2022.

Where Allgeier disappointed is in failing to surpass Williams, a legit journeyman playing for his fourth team in the last five years, for the backup job. By far Williams’ best years came with the Kansas City Chiefs, which included 2019 when he set career highs in carries (111), yards (498), and touchdowns (five), but the 30-year-old did little with the Chicago Bears a season ago. This figures to be one of those occasional situations in which the depth chart won’t match the fantasy depth chart should Patterson get injured. Allgeier is physically better equipped to handle a larger load than Williams.

Fantasy football outlook

Expect the Falcons to mix and match will all three of their top backs, at least initially, with Patterson getting the majority of the touches, while Williams and Allgeier divvy up the more physical work. The BYU product could move into a more advantageous spot if either of the backs ahead of him, both of whom are on the wrong side of 30, break down. Whether that possibility is enough to justify carrying the rookie on your bench depends on the size of your league. He is worthy of an RB4 or No. 5 spot in any design of at least 12 teams and 16 players on a roster.

Can fantasy footballers find value in the Atlanta Falcons’ backfield?

Breaking down the scenarios of Atlanta’s running back stable.

When the Atlanta Falcons decided to pull the trigger on trading longtime franchise quarterback Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts this offseason, they ushered in a full reboot that was probably at least two years overdue.

During his 14 years in Atlanta, Ryan averaged 572 passes per season and threw 560 times last year in this system. Don’t expect newcomers Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder to approach last year’s number in 2022 — during his three seasons as the starter with the Tennessee Titans, Mariota averaged 412.

With far less experience at quarterback, the expectation is that the Falcons will lean more heavily on the run, though a glance at their depth chart doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in that approach. While they could always add a free agent at some point, this is what the Falcons are working with for now.

Cordarrelle Patterson

Inked to a one-year, $3 million contract in free agency before the 2021 season, Patterson ended up on the short list for best bargain signing in all of football. The one-time first-round pick of the Minnesota Vikings never lived up his draft station as a receiver and had settled into more of a part-time gadget role while bouncing around the league. To the immense credit of offensive coordinator Dave Ragone, the Falcons decided to feature Patterson out of the backfield, where he responded with 1,166 total yards and 11 TDs, emerging as their top offensive playmaker.

There are still some questions regarding Patterson, however, who at age 31 is already past the “sell by” date of most backs. While he clearly hasn’t taken anywhere near the long-term wear and tear of full-time RBs, he still has 143 career games under his belt.

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Adjustments will have to be made with Ryan gone as the veteran quarterback commanded a level of respect from secondaries that neither Mariota nor Ridder will. It’s also worth noting that even though Patterson sits atop the depth chart, he’s no workhorse, and his fantasy value will be tied to his ability to continue to maximize his touches.

Damien Williams

Williams will be playing for his fourth team in five years, which is a pretty accurate barometer of his talent level. The 30-year-old has topped 50 carries in a season just once (111-498-5 with KC in 2020) but carries a respectable 4.2 yards-per-attempt average across his career.

Williams also is a capable receiver out of the backfield, and he should at least contribute on passing downs. He’s likely to stick as veteran depth, though the team would be thrilled if he operated in the same kind of tertiary role he’s filled throughout most of his time in the NFL.

Tyler Allgeier

A fifth-round pick without a lot of fanfare, Allgeier is quietly stepping into a potentially productive situation with the Falcons. At 5-foot-11, 224 pounds, the BYU product has good size and was heavily utilized over the last two years with the Cougars, where he rushed for 2,731 yards and 36 TDs.

He lacks big-play speed to be sure and projects more as someone that grinds down the opposition with body punches than dazzling them with haymakers. The rookie has decent hands, but in all likelihood, his primary role profiles as a two-down back and being an occasional threat around the goal line.

Fantasy football outlook

While there are no sure things in Atlanta’s backfield, Patterson is the one to own. Sure, there are some legitimate questions given his “breakout” season came in Year 9, but on a team short on playmakers, Patterson figures to be a focal point offensively. That gives him solid RB3 appeal.

Unless injuries press him into a larger-than-expected role, Williams can remain on waivers. Although he may sit third on the depth chart now, Allgeier is the better flier option. There’s an outside chance for a scenario that puts Allgeier in the early-down role, with Patterson serving more as a the change-up and/or third-down back. Allgeier is a workhorse in a way that neither Williams nor Patterson are capable of being, and that alone gives him late-round potential.

Regardless of which guy ends up seeing the bulk of the touches in the red zone, both quarterback options are fond of rushing the rock, and that devalues the overall fantasy upside from this backfield.

Fantasy football team previews: NFC South

Key coaching changes and QB news have dominated the NFC South’s offseason.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 5

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 5.

There is a fantasy football trend becoming more popular all the time – complementing every-week stars in your lineups with players going against teams fielding high-powered offenses and shaky defenses that look worse when they’re in “prevent” mode to close out a win.

Opposing quarterbacks facing the Kansas City Chiefs have thrown for more yards than Patrick Mahomes. Opposing quarterbacks of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have thrown for more yards and thrown more touchdowns than Tom Brady. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Dallas Cowboys have thrown for almost 300 more yards than Dak Prescott. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Baltimore Ravens are averaging 293 yards a game. Opposing quarterbacks facing the Green Bay Packers have thrown more touchdown passes (10) than Aaron Rodgers has (8). The Rams are allowing more yards a game (397) than they’re producing (391).

The only exception to this has been the Buffalo Bills. After losing in Week 1 at home to Pittsburgh, they’ve outscored their opponents 118-21. They still beat up people the old-fashioned way, but for a lot of the teams getting the tout as being Super Bowl contenders thanks to their offenses, their own prowess is coming back to roost on their defenses.

The longstanding tradition of stacking your lineup against the dregs of the league will likely never go away. But with the aggressive offenses that are reaching the top, more people should be looking at when are the Chiefs, Bucs or Cowboys coming to town.

Here is the Week 5 Fantasy Market Report.

Fantasy Football Risers

RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons

Patterson has never lived up to being a regular in fantasy lineups (at least those who aspire to win), because he’s never deserved to be. He’s bounced around the league and may have finally found his spot. Known more as the most dangerous kick returner in the game, he’s become the main scoring threat in Atlanta. He’s second on the team in receptions (18). But, Matt Ryan has thrown eight touchdown passes and four have been to Patterson. He also is second on the team in rushing (27-119) and has their only rushing touchdown. And he can still return kicks 109 yards to get you needle-in-the-haystack points. When one offense has nine touchdowns and one guy has five of them, you should want that guy.

TE Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills

Is Knox the Robert Tonyan of 2021? When evaluating the talent of the Buffalo pass game, Knox doesn’t come to mind, because he has just 15 catches for 144 yards. But, in his last three games, he has scored four touchdowns. When Josh Allen gets to the red zone, Knox is clearly his first choice, because he has scored one more touchdown than Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders combined.

WR D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

He doesn’t get mentioned a lot among the discussion of the league’s elite wide receivers, but few have been the sole focus of their QB. Sam Darnold is cocked and locked on Moore. He has double the targets of any other Panthers receiver, has caught 30 passes, including eight each in the last three games. His low-water mark for receptions and yards is six and 79, respectively. He’s been a fantasy scoring machine and still seems to be slightly flying under the radar for what he has accomplished.

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TE Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys

The thing about tight ends in TE-mandatory leagues is that you have your handful of guys who are deemed to be elite, and then you have guys that get taken because they’re viewed as “red zone guys.” The Tonyan experience. Every few years, a pedestrian tight end catches lightning in a bottle with his quarterback and breaks out. Andrew Luck was really good at finding those guys. Schultz emerged last season when the ordained heir to the Jason Witten throne (Blake Jarwin) went down with injury. Jarwin is back but still an afterthought. He has been targeted just 12 times, catching nine of them. Schultz has been targeted 23 times and has caught 20 of them for 201 yards and three touchdowns. He’s gaining steam as the season goes on. In his last two games, he has caught 12 passes for 138 yards and three TDs – numbers that would surpass many of the big-name tight ends. He has Dak Prescott’s confidence. That’s worth something in fantasy football.

WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

I think everyone is in agreement that it may be time for Ben Roethlisberger to throw in the Terrible Towel and limp off into the sunset. But, aside from being a difficult “Wheel of Fortune” answer because of having every vowel in his first name, Johnson is tearing it up. He’s played only three games but has nine receptions of two them — 92- and 105-yard outings — and a touchdown in the other one. He has consistently brought fantasy owners to the pay window while JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool lag well behind. It’s time to be jump off the Steelers bandwagon, but Johnson may be the exception to the rule.

Fantasy Football Fallers

TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

Kittle has never been known as a huge touchdown scorer. His fantasy value has always been tied to receptions and yardage. He has neither this season. He hasn’t scored a touchdown – not a huge surprise given his career penchant for droughts – but he has four receptions in three of his four games and 40 yards or less in two of those. Those who have Kittle on their roster came into with the knowledge he won’t score 10 TDs, but there was a legitimate expectation for 100 receptions. You don’t get there when you’re collecting them four at a time.

QB Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints

In Week 1, Winston seemed to pound a stake into the heart of Drew Brees with a five-touchdown beatdown of the Packers. Since then? Not much. Through four games, he has thrown for 613 yards and provided little in the run game. It’s time to jump off any hope the Winston train will roll again.

RB Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

Sanders was brought onto rosters to be an every-week starter. He has yet to score a touchdown, and his rushing numbers gave gone down quickly and steadily (74-55-27-13). He has fewer rushing yards than his quarterback and fewer receptions than his backup. These are hard times for Sanders, and it doesn’t look to be getting any better, barring a significant change of course offensively.

WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

The fantasy football world has been waiting to see what Denver could have in the receiver tandem of Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Last year, they were denied because Sutton was injured. This year, they’ve been denied because Jeudy is hurt. Sutton has yet to score a touchdown and, with the exception of roasting Jacksonville (who doesn’t?) in his other three games, he has nine catches for 98 yards and no touchdowns. That gets old in a hurry.

TE Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers

He was the golden boy last year and has just eight catches for 74 yards and a touchdown through four games – a standard daily stat line for guys like Kelce. He is one-trick pony. Last year, it was a great trick. This year? Not so much. If you aren’t supplying the bread, there’s no need for butter.