Every NFL season brings a sense of buildup and excitement from the draft to training camp to the preseason – all a prelude to when winning and losing counts. However, as with the rest of our lives in many respects, the COVID-19 pandemic has already created scenarios many deemed to be impossible.
Sports have been forced to adapt and change to the “new normal.” The NBA and NHL put their seasons on hold for five months and Major League Baseball was forced to eliminate 100 games just to get the 2020 season in.
What makes the NFL unique is that it can’t have a scenario under which a team gets shut down if there is an in-house outbreak. In baseball, you can make up games missed by playing doubleheaders. In the NFL, that isn’t possible. You can’t have teams playing four games in two weeks to get caught up. If one team is ravaged with positive COVID-19 tests, the game will still continue unless the NFL opts for a league-wide shutdown for two weeks or so to let the virus clear.
There are far more unknowns going into the 2020 season than we have ever seen at the start of a season. There are some who believe we will see a full season play out, while others are just as convinced the hurdles facing the NFL will result in a stoppage at some point or teams being without some of the star players for extended periods outside of the typical injuries suffered.
A week from now, we will have a much better handle on the status of in-team competitions for playing time, but one thing is certain – 2020 is going to be a season the likes of which the NFL has never experienced.
Here is the pre-start of the season Fantasy Market Report for Week 1. Once we start seeing how rosters shake out once games begin, we will move forward as normal with the FMR determining whose stock is rising and falling.
Fantasy football risers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers fantasy players – Tampa Bay already had quality fantasy talent in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate – all of whom have been solid fantasy producers – but the addition of Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette and Rob Gronkowski suddenly makes this offense look as daunting as just about anyone in the league. But, many were saying the same about Cleveland last year, and we know how that turned out.
Young running backs – There were some surprises when running backs started popping off the draft board in April, as draftees were coming to teams that already had an established running back expected to be the featured back. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Cam Akers (Rams), D’Andre Swift (Lions), Jonathan Taylor (Colts), A.J. Dillon (Packers), J.K. Dobbins (Ravens) and Zack Moss (Bills) are all earning buzz that not only will they have a prominent role in their respective offenses, most of them could end up being the lead dog by season’s end. It’s been some time since so many rookies have been viewed as potential featured backs in their rookie season.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – Last year, most fantasy projections had Murray as a middle-of-the-road fantasy quarterback and he resembled that remark. He was 15th in passing yards and tied for 21st in passing touchdowns. What got him into fantasy lineups was that he was second only to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards (544) and scored four rushing touchdowns. As with the last two MVPs – Patrick Mahomes and Jackson – entering his second season, huge things are expected from Murray and he currently sits as a top-five QB in many rankings. If history repeats itself, he will worth that dice roll on greatness.
Roster diversity – As noted earlier, COVID-19 is going to create a strange new world in the NFL. If a team has numerous players test positive, the show must go on and it will create problems for fantasy owners if some of their star players are suddenly down for two weeks or more. As a result, fantasy owners are being advised to diversify their rosters as much as possible. The days of matching up a quarterback and his top receiver are temporarily on hold, making it an ideal time for owners to get as many players from different teams as possible simply to cover their own backs.
Tight ends – There have been times when only a couple tight ends were deemed must-start fantasy players. For a time, those two were Shannon Sharpe and Ben Coates. Later it was Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. With the changing dynamic of NFL passing games, you have a solid top five tight ends – Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews and Darren Waller – not to mention a slew of young talents looking to join their ranks, including Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Austin Hooper, Hayden Hurst and Irv Smith, to name a few. As the game changes, it is a great time to be a tight end with downfield ability.
Fantasy football fallers
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Just a couple of years ago, Rodgers was viewed as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Now, he can be had as a backup QB in just about every league regardless of size. The conventional wisdom was that, in the deepest wide receiver draft class in 20 years, the Packers would use a premium pick on a wide receiver to groom opposite Davante Adams. Instead, the Packers drafted Rodgers eventual replacement (Jordan Love) in the first round, added a running back in the second round (A.J. Dillon) and, despite having nine picks, didn’t use any on wide receivers. You’re on your own, A-Rod.
Old running backs – Running back remains the focus of the first couple of rounds of fantasy drafts and the big money in auctions, but being a running back over 30 is a death sentence. Three Hall of Famers are still in the league, but are being buried. Adrian Peterson is now with Detroit – his fifth team in five years. Frank Gore is with the Jets – his fourth team in four years. LeSean McCoy is with Tampa Bay – his third team in three years. None are ready to get their Hall of Fame clock activated, but their short shelf life with teams may end up starting it for them.
New England Patriots fantasy players – Not too long ago, Patriots fantasy players were selected en masse and often taken early when positions started getting picked over. With Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski gone, Cam Newton is going extremely late (if at all) in drafts and auctions, the backfield-by-committee waters down the value of all their running backs and Julian Edelman is the only receiver getting any attention and that isn’t until the late rounds. Even their kicker has been devalued. This will be a big test for Bill Belichick because the fantasy stock of Patriots has taken a giant hit.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns – Heading into 2019, Mayfield was the hottest rising property in the fantasy world. The addition of Odell Beckham gave the Browns offense talent across the board and Mayfield was expected to take the next step as a QB. Instead, the Browns fell flat and much of the blame was placed at the feet of Mayfield. As he enters 2020, he is in a watershed season that, if things go south again, could get the Browns to look in another direction after the season.
New coaching staffs – Fans may not realize how much repetition goes into an offseason program. Coaches work their players in practices, OTAs, training camp and the preseason. All of those were altered or eliminated by COVID-19. For teams with a veteran coaching staff, it wasn’t as impactful, because of the familiarity between coaches and players. For new coaches, however, the pandemic robbed them of the opportunity to get in the reps needed from May to August to properly evaluate their players. That lack of hands-on work could adversely impact fantasy players from those teams early in the season, making those players a much bigger risk to have in your fantasy lineup the first month of the season.