Tag: Derek Carr fantasy football

Which QB2-ranked players could finish with QB1 numbers?

Here’s a three-pack of fantasy quarterbacks who could overdeliver in 2023.

There is no universal ranking system for fantasy football players, so ADP (Average Draft Position) from early drafts serve as setting the bar for the pecking order of position players. In some leagues, rosters have only one quarterback, which leaves almost two-thirds of the league’s QBs available for pickup. In most formats, only one quarterback is started, but backups are rostered as insurance and to cover injuries or bye weeks.

When looking at quarterbacks consistently outside the QB1 designation (top 12), these are the three who should draw serious consideration to be drafted as a high QB2 with the potential to post numbers better than some of the QB1 players taken in front of them.

Juwan Johnson is the Saints TE to own in 2023

Taysom Hill vs. Juwan Johnson has a clear winner in 2023 fantasy drafts.

After proving to be an asset for fantasy football owners in 2022, New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson is poised for even bigger and better things in 2023.

The 26-year-old racked up 42 catches, 508 yards and seven touchdowns last season, finishing as TE15 overall in full-point PPR. Those seven scores were the third most for a tight end, trailing only Travis Kelce and George Kittle.

Johnson really hit his stride from Week 6 on, when the Oregon product scored all of his touchdowns and averaged 10.2 fantasy points per game, earning him TE8 overall in that span.

Making Johnson’s season even more impressive is the fact that he managed to be productive despite a mess under center. Jameis Winston wasn’t good in the three games he played, and Andy Dalton wasn’t any better.

Johnson has a much-improved situation at quarterback going into his fourth year after the Saints inked Derek Carr this offseason. Granted, Carr has his own flaws and is coming off a rough campaign himself, but he’s still an upgrade over Winston and Dalton.

The veteran signal-caller is no stranger to elevating tight ends to elite status in fantasy. In 2019 and 2020, Carr helped Darren Waller finish as TE4 and TE2, respectively.

Of course, nobody is ready to proclaim Johnson the next Waller, but the two players do have a similar athletic profile thanks to the former having played wide receiver in college like the latter did.

We have more than a quarter-century track record of creating fantasy football champs. Sign up for The Huddle today to gain an award-winning edge on the competition!

Perhaps the biggest concern for Johnson is the expected increase in competition for targets.

Along with guys like wide receiver Chris Olave and running back Alvin Kamara (if he doesn’t get suspended), Johnson is set to also contend with veteran wideout Michael Thomas for looks.

That said, Thomas first has to prove he can actually stay on the field and play at a high level before his presence over the middle becomes a concern. And, even if he can return to at least some semblance of what he was, that may end up benefiting Johnson, as defenses won’t be able to focus in on him as much.

As promising as things look for him, chances are Johnson will fly under the radar in most drafts and won’t get the same attention his teammate, Taysom Hill, will get after a finish of TE9.

However, Hill is a riskier bet than Johnson this year for multiple reasons.

[lawrence-related id=478459]

Again, assuming Kamara avoids a ban, Hill now has to contend with both he and free-agent acquisition Jamaal Williams near the goal line, an area where Hill thrived in 2022. Don’t forget about third-round pick, Kendre Miller, either.

If Hill sees a decline in goal-line work, he may just drop off the map entirely since the “tight end” doesn’t see much action through the air. There has been talk about Hill seeing more work as a receiver, but that has to be seen to be believed after he’s been almost completely ignored as a pass-catcher the last three years.

Fantasy football outlook

Even with the workload Hill had on the ground, he remained as inconsistent as they came and was capable of putting up a bagel just as easily as he was capable of winning a week.

And, lest we forget, Hill’s impressive finish from last season was inflated by a 34.1-point performance in Week 6, and so much as cutting that in half puts Hill behind Johnson for the year at TE16.

Johnson is a high-end TE2 on the road to becoming a TE1 and will provide tremendous value for fantasy owners who wait until the later rounds in drafts to address the position. Hill should be considered a TE2 for now, also, but is on much shakier ground.

Fantasy football reaction: Derek Carr joins the New Orleans Saints

A brief assessment of what to expect from Carr and the fantasy-relevant cast of New Orleans’ offense.

After being granted his release from the Las Vegas Raiders following last season’s benching late in the year, Derek Carr became a free agent and wasn’t subjected to the same rules of the process as anyone whose contract is set to expire as of the start of the new league year next week.

As a result, he was available to sign anywhere he pleased, and Carr did just that by inking a four-year deal with the New Orleans Saints on Monday, March 6. He’ll immediate step into the starting role and provide an upgrade over last season’s mixture of Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill.

Fantasy Football: 5 sleeper quarterbacks for 2022 season

These sleeper quarterbacks could add great value to your roster in fantasy football.

It’s going to be hard to land Josh Allen, the assumed QB1, in fantasy football this year because his stock is off the charts.

If you’re OK with passing on Allen — and the rest of the consensus top-12 QBs — in your fantasy draft, it’s still possible to find good QB value later in the draft with sleeper picks at the position.

Here’s a quick look at five sleeper quarterbacks to consider for the 2022 NFL season.

Fantasy football preview: WR Hunter Renfrow, Raiders

Will Renfrow capitalize on a career year, or will Davante Adams’ arrival get in the way?

When a player is the No. 1 receiver for a team with more than 100 receptions and 1,000 yards the previous season, the last thing many would think is he may be the odd man out the following year. However, that’s what many are projecting for Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow.

In his third NFL season in 2021, Renfrow nearly equaled his production from his first two years, catching 103 passes for 1,038 yards and nine touchdowns. He was consistent throughout the season in terms of receptions – you need to be to catch 100 passes – but came on big late in the season. Renfrow had 12 games with five or more receptions and, over the last seven games, caught 47 passes for 514 yards and five touchdowns.

Everything was looking up for Renfrow to put on a repeat performance this year, but that took a hit when the Raiders swung a blockbuster trade to acquire Davante Adams from Green Bay. Adams had more than 110 catches and more than 1,350 yards in three of the last four years and, in his last four seasons (57 games), scored 47 touchdowns. He has been the most lethal fantasy receiver in the league over that span and brings his talents to Las Vegas to offer Derek Carr the most dangerous receiving option he’s ever had.

[lawrence-related id=467355]

The other perception that has people questioning Renfrow’s 2022 fantasy outlook is the return of playmaking tight end Darren Waller. Waller missed six games last season after catching 107 passes for almost 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. His absence left a void in the Raiders’ passing attack that was largely filled by Renfrow. Without Waller and Henry Ruggs, Renfrow was just about all Carr had left.

The new scenario isn’t unusual for what the Raiders offense had planned as it’s just replacing Ruggs with Adams. Ruggs’ NFL career is likely over as he awaits trial on an alleged drunk driving charge that led to the death of a 23-year-old woman.

Many are of the opinion that Renfrow will be left behind the A&W (Adams & Waller) juggernaut, but just the opposite may be true.

While Adams and Waller are supreme talents at their positions, the job of a slot receiver, like Renfrow, is to find the open seams in a defense – sticking his foot in the ground and getting separation. Both Adams and Waller are going to demand additional defensive attention, meaning Renfrow will likely see single coverage on almost every pattern, which Carr will take full advantage of to move the chains and set up big plays downfield. Even though the volume is sure to decrease, Renfrow’s crafty route skills position him for more efficiency in the red zone.

Fantasy football takeaway

From the fantasy draft perspective, most guys coming off a 100-catch, 1,000-yard, nine-touchdown season would be viewed as a WR1 or high WR2 candidate. However, slot receivers rarely get the credit they deserve. With the targets Adams and Waller are likely to command, Renfrow is most likely a low-end WR3 candidate with a position rank in the mid-30s. If you can get him there, he could be a valued member of any fantasy roster, particularly in PPR.

Fantasy football team previews: AFC West

Huge changes with Denver and Vegas look to turn the division on its head.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy football shocker: Davante Adams traded to Las Vegas

The best receiver in football has a new home.

The football world is abuzz thanks to Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams being traded to the Las Vegas Raiders after the franchise-tagged star was unable to secure a long-term contract in Titletown.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter has the details:

The Raiders immediately locked up their prized pass-catcher to a five-year, $141.5 million contract, per several media reports.

Raiders fantasy football outlook

Adams is reunited with his collegiate teammate in quarterback Derek Carr, and the drop-off in production shouldn’t be drastic coming from Aaron Rodgers, the reigning MVP of two years running. The 29-year-old Fresno State receiver is coming off a career-high 123 catches, which almost certainly won’t be replicated. It was his third 110-plus catch season in the last four years, and Vegas didn’t acquire him to be an observer. Adams is a top-five receiver lock and likely will be in the top three of just about every format that rewards for catches.

Carr becomes a legitimate top-five quarterback contender with the likes of Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, which is about as dynamic of trio as the league has to offer. On the surface, Renfrow takes the biggest hit to his fantasy stock with the addition of Adams. A reception-dependent fantasy commodity, Renfrow may struggle to approach 80 grabs, let alone the 103 mark he set in 2021.

It’s a net positive for Waller’s outlook, since he’s no longer going to be the focus of nonstop double-teams. Adams draws so much attention that Waller’s athleticism and size will force defenses to pick their poison. He’s among the top two or three players at his position.

Running backs Josh Jacobs gets a significant boost, too, because even with all of the weapons, Josh McDaniels’ system emphasizes the ground game. Defenses now have to account for a number of dangerous aerial weapons around the goal line, which benefits Jacobs in an area where he’s at his best. He’s a low-end No. 1 back in most situations, but gamers should lock up Kenyan Drake as a handcuff given Jacobs’ injury history.

Packers fantasy football outlook

The obvious question is how does this team replace all that is Adams? The free-agent market is drying up as an injured Odell Beckham Jr. (knee), who’s expected miss roughly the first two months of the season, is the top remaining option. No one available is an immediate replacement, that’s for sure. The Packers are likely to invest a first-round pick on a wideout now that Aaron Rodgers is locked up.

Speaking of the $200 million man, Rodgers’ best weapon is gone, and there’s no easy way around it: This will hurt his fantasy stock. He’s still a midrange to low-end QB1, but gamers will have plenty of options with more going for them at this deep position.

Allen Lazard will stand to get the most notable boost in value, presuming the Pack cannot secure a legitimate WR1. For now, until the position fills out, he’s the de facto No. 1 target for Rodgers. There’s sound No. 2 PPR worth here if the position isn’t addressed beyond depth material, so we’ll revisit this as more is known.

We’ll see second-year receiver Amari Rodgers make his case for more targets. He’s far closer in style and stature to Randall Cobb than Adams, and there’s far too much yet to be resolved to make any kind of definitive proclamation about how these two will coexist from a target perspective. The younger Rodgers has far more upside, but he landed just four passes in his rookie season. Cobb is reliable over the middle and No. 12 loves him, though the veteran enters his age-32 season as a career-long injury liability. Neither is poised to be better than a third wideout at the moment.

WRs Juwann Winfree and Malik Taylor round out the current depth. Re-signing free-agent WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling may become a higher priority now, and the Packers also could work to get tight end Robert Tonyan under contract again to help keep some continuity intact.

To a degree, we’re probably going to see a shift in offensive philosophy that relies more on the talented tandem in the backfield and matriculates its way up the field with less explosiveness. Aaron Jones is fringe No. 1/RB2, whereas AJ Dillon is closer to flex/depth territory.

We’ll get a better scope the nuances of all things Packers offense once the dust of free agency settles as well as after incoming rookies are rostered. This situation will be examined in greater detail after the 2022 NFL Draft.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 3

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 3.

People new to fantasy football often ask why running backs are the highest-paid in auctions and dominate the first round of every draft. It’s the same reason diamonds and gold are so expensive – they’re rare.

Running backs aren’t rare. Successful running backs are rare. Heading into Monday night’s game between the Lions and Packers, through two weeks of the 2021 season there were only 10 players who had rushed for 150 or more yards – and one of them was a quarterback (Lamar Jackson). On the flip side, 24 receivers had posted 150 or more yards and only one of them was a running back (Christian McCaffrey).

To make things even more pronounced, only one running back has accounted for more than 200 rushing yards (Derrick Henry). There are seven receivers with more than 200 receiving yards – and most if not all were available after a dozen running backs came off a draft board or broke a budget in an auction.

While quarterbacks and receivers are the ones who have the giant week that leads owners to victory, it’s having those few running backs capable of dominating that makes them so valuable.

It’s their rarity that makes them a commodity.

Here is the Week 3 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy football risers

RB Ty’Son Williams, Baltimore Ravens

When it comes to our “Risers” list, we typically look at players who are either available or undervalued. The Ravens’ run game is clearly dominated by Lamar Jackson, but the role of de facto running back seemingly is always up for grabs. Mark Ingram. Gus Edwards. Dobbins. They all got their shot. Latavius Murray was the odds-on choice to be the lead dog, but, through two games, Murray has 19 carries for 64 yards (3.4 a pop with a long of eight). Williams has 22 carries for 142 yards (6.5 per tote with a run of 20 or more in each game). The reason the mantle gets passed in this offense is that the Ravens go with the hot hand and, unless he gets injured, that’s going to be Williams moving forward.

TE Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Two weeks through the season and the leading scorer in the NFL is Tommy Boy’s running buddy Gronk. He has scored four touchdowns in two games – all in the red zone. When Tom Brady gets near the goal line, guys like Mike Evans get the shine. But at the outer and middle edge of the red zone is when Gronk and their shorthand history with each other comes into play. If you own Gronk, his value will never be higher. There’s one ball in Tampa Bay and Brady has to spread it around. If Gronk stays healthy – a really big “if” – he can put himself back in the 2021 TE Mount Rushmore conversation with Kelce, Waller and Kittle. In tight end-mandatory leagues, he’s been a godsend. You can get “Kelce-style” return in a trade right now for one reason – Gronk has earned that respect.

WR Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals

Quick quiz for you. Who leads the Cardinals in targets with 13? Who leads them in receptions with 11? Who leads them in yards with 182? The answer to all of those is Moore – a second-round rookie slot speedster who has quickly earned not only the confidence of Kyler Murray but also of the coaching staff. In most leagues, he is considered a fourth receiver. That’s A.J. Green. He’s making a case that Christian Kirk is the No. 3 guy and he and DeAndre Hopkins are 1-2. He’s going to make more believers.

[lawrence-related id=460513]

QB Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Carr’s name never gets mentioned in the discussion of elite quarterbacks, but those who have had him as a backup or a QB1b in a tandem system know better – at least in fantasy terms. The Raiders aren’t shy about passing. Everyone knows that. But, they’re 2-0 in large part because Carr has thrown for 817 yards and four touchdowns. Keep in mind, these wins weren’t against the Jaguars and Texans. These were the Ravens and Steelers. If he is somehow still in a rotation, that has to stop, and he needs to be No. 1 and No. 1a, at worst.

WR Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Williams is no stranger to fantasy owners. He has been the Keenan McCardell of his era. He’s good for five or six passes for 60 or 70 yards and the occasional TD when pressed into a lineup. Last year in the first season paired with Justin Herbert, he was almost forgotten – catching 48 passes for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Those weren’t awful numbers, but they didn’t keep him in a fantasy lineup. In his first two games, Williams has 15 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns – about 30 percent of his 2020 numbers. Herbert has a new running buddy who requires acknowledgement.

Fantasy football fallers

RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Numbers speak volumes in the NFL. Numbers scream volumes in fantasy football. Christian McCaffrey and Barkley were No. 1 and 2 picks in most fantasy drafts in 2020. Both went down early to significant injuries. McCaffrey has reclaimed his spot. Barkley? Not so much. Two games into his Saquon 2.0 version, he has 23 carries for 83 yards, three catches for 13 yards and 39 fewer rushing yards than his quarterback. Seeing as 41 of Saquon’s 83 rushing yards came on one play, this is a time for legitimate concern and quiet reflection. How many more dud weeks can you take if you’re counting on Barkley?

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger is glacial, so rushing points are a happy accident. If you’re playing Big Ben, it’s for passing production. Two games in, that translates to 483 yards and two touchdowns – numbers that won’t win weekly head-to-head matchups against just about anybody. He’s obviously part of a two-QB plan for those who have him on their rosters, but, against both the Bills and Raiders – admittedly two quality teams – he hasn’t earned a spot in a lineup where he is the QB1b. Toss in news of a recent left pectoral injury, and he’s QB2 unarguably and cut-bait for the twitchy.

WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

In many circles, Robinson was viewed as a WR1 if you were in a 12-player league – 10-player in some. The obvious question was with which quarterback is he going to be that guy? Through two games with both QBs, he has eight catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. He’s transformed from a WR1 to an opponent-based play. Who would have seen this coming? Everyone? Targeted 15 times. All contested. Some double-contested. Until someone else emerges as a legitimate threat, he keeps getting doubled.

TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

There was a time when, in tight end-mandatory leagues, if you had Ertz, you were talking tough. Now, you’re duck-and-cover. On a modest Eagles offense, he is seventh in targets and seventh in receptions. There was a time that those were league totals, not team totals. Four targets in two games. Smells like a draft night gamble turned waiver wire if you want him. You can have him.

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor was a guy that, if you were in auctions, bidding wars at times got a little out of hand. He was a hill to die on for some auctioneers. It hasn’t been a lack of opportunities with 32 carries for 107 yards and no TDs. And that was with seven in the box. Now there should be nine – eight at a minimum. Not ideal with a QB with two bad ankles.