Fantasy football reaction: D’Andre Swift heading to the Windy City

Swift head back to the NFC North after a one-year stint in Philly.

Following the Detroit Lions drafting Jahmyr Gibbs in the 2023 NFL Draft’s first round, D’Andre Swift was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles with one year left on his deal. He entered the 2024 free agency period with the opportunity to pick his next destination, ultimately returning to the NFC North to play for the Chicago Bears.

Fresh off his first 1,000-yard rushing season and a career-high 229 carries, Swift scored five times on the ground for the third straight season. He did, however, experience a dramatic downturn in the aerial element of his game, logging personal lows in targets (49), receptions (39), yards (214), and touchdowns (1).

Despite the mixed bag of results, Swift’s per-game average of 12.6 points in reception-rewarding scoring is the lowest of his four-year career, down from a 16.2-point showing in 2021. The larger workload produced fewer yards per touch, so we may have seen his efficiency rating maxed out.

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In Chicago, he should be the primary back in a tandem approach, presumably with Khalil Herbert as D’Onta Foreman is a free agent. Will Justin Fields be the team’s starting quarterback? If so, his presence drastically impacts the fantasy value of Swift. Should Fields be traded, it likely means rookie Caleb Williams will be the starter … not all that different of a fantasy outlook for Swift.

Fantasy football outlook

The fifth-year pro is a much better asset in PPR formats. He’s a solid but potentially erratic RB2, regardless of the unsettled quarterback situation. Factors of a notable injury history, outdoor weather, and a two-back approach makes him an inconsistent consideration. We’ll dig deeper once the post-draft dust settles.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 15

This slumping RB has a great opportunity to soar once again.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as my favorite fantasy football gamble of the week.

The players chosen in this series are meant to be fliers for fantasy owners in desperate situations or those willing to take an intentional risk. No player is intended to be a lineup lock for guaranteed results, hence the name of the series.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 15

Tracking my 2023 predictions: 6-8-0
All-time record: 25-39-3 (39.7%)

Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or is ruled out after publishing

This year, we’ll also track the accuracy on a percentage basis to show relative results, since sometimes calling a player a loss doesn’t actually hurt gamers. An example would be if a projection narrowly falls short of the 75 percent threshold, the player is still of use in a lineup.

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
% 55 74 41 20 150 66 16 25 88 121 138 80 87 64%
Grade E C F- F- A+ D F- F- B+ A+ A+ B- B+ D

I went with Los Angeles Chargers tight end Gerald Everett last week, projecting a modest 13.9 points. He finished with 8.9 even after the Chargers lost Justin Herbert (finger). The Bolts had the ball in the red zone late in the contest, and backup quarterback Easton Stick bypassed a wide-open Everett for a short touchdown, instead zipping an unnecessary fastball toward Austin Ekeler that led to an incompletion.

While frustrating, I can’t get too worked up about it. This one was within reach until the waning moments, even with one of the least capable No. 2 quarterbacks in the league on the field.

This week, we turn to a veteran ball carrier whose season has been a tale of two halves thus far.

Philadelphia Eagles RB D’Andre Swift at Seattle Seahawks

From Week 2 — when injury thrust him into the lineup — through Week 8, Swift dominated the backfield and posted at least 10.5 PPR points in each contest. During that stretch, he topped 15 points four times and solidified himself as one of the best fantasy surprises the position has offered in 2023.

But over the last five games, Swift’s season has gone sideways. He has seen two fewer targets, on average, scored only once, and has posted more than 9.4 PPR points a single time, which came three contests ago. Swift has been only fractionally less efficient in terms of his yardage per touch, but the lack of scoring has crippled his fantasy value. In the seven-game hot streak, he found the end zone once every 35.8 touches, and that number has nearly doubled to a TD every 69 handles in the last five appearances.

Philadelphia, losers of consecutive games for the first time since midway into the 2021 season, will look to get on track vs. an inconsistent Seattle defense. While fireworks from the passing game come to mind when thinking about this offense, make no mistake, the Eagles thrive when the ground attack is clicking. Expect a rededicated approach to the rushing game.

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The Seahawks have allowed running backs to post top-10 stats in nearly every meaningful category related to fantasy success. Since Week 9, the position has averaged the 10th-most rushing yards (105.2), eighth-most receptions (5.6), fifth-most aerial yards (50), fifth-most total yards (155.2), second-highest efficiency rating, fourth-most standard fantasy points (23.9), and second-most PPR points (29.5) against this defense. All of that sorts out to Seattle being 34% easier to exploit than the league average.

On the year, that figure is 19%, which is mostly powered by the position scoring 14 rushing touchdowns and a pair more through the air. Long story short, versatile RBs have done the most damage. Fifteen backs have posted double-digit PPR results, and nine of those efforts were good for at least 15 points.

The Seahawks have done a better job of limiting wide receivers, and while there’s always the possibility Philadelphia unleashes its pent-up frustration on this secondary in such a way that Swift isn’t needed as much, there’s still enough to like from an efficiency perspective. It’s understandable if owners in the postseason are ready to cut bait for a safer option, but sticking with the former Detroit Lion one more week is a worthwhile risk to take.

My projection: 14 carries, 66 rushing yards, 1 TD, 4 targets, 4 receptions, 33 yards (19.9 PPR fantasy points)

Fantasy football preview: Philadelphia Eagles running backs

Durability concerns cloud Philly’s talented backfield.

The Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the most prolific rushing teams in the NFL – finishing first in rushing yards in 2021 and fifth in 2022. But the organization never seems fully satisfied with its running game and made some big moves in the offseason.

Miles Sanders was coming off the best season of his career with 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, but he was allowed to leave via free agency. He was replaced in free agency with the signing of Rashaad Penny, and then the Eagles cut a trade with Detroit to acquire D’Andre Swift.

Both of the new acquisitions have significant injury histories, but the talent runs deep in Philly with holdovers Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott proving to be reliable role players.

Lions land RB David Montgomery, spelling the end of Jamaal Williams’ stay

The Lions replaced one free-agent rusher with another, and fantasy football owners may not even notice.

Free-agent running back David Montgomery agreed to terms on a three-year, $18 million deal with the Detroit Lions that will keep him in the NFC North. The move puts an end to Jamaal Williams‘ stint with the Lions as he’s also a free agent and will not be retained.

Montgomery is versatile enough to chip in on third downs as a receiving outlet when called upon, but he should defer to D’Andre Swift in those situations more often than not. His bread will be buttered on early downs as a grinder who will be run into the dirt if head coach Dan Campbell has his way. His role is clearly defined, modeled after the Sean Payton-era one-two punch in New Orleans between Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Hint: He’s no AK41.

The Lions sport one of the best run-blocking lines in football, and Detroit’s defense is on the rise, which allows them to lean more on the ground game. Quarterback Jared Goff is a competent passer who is at his best when he can rely on convincing play-action passing.

The man Montgomery is replacing scored a team-record and NFL-best 17 touchdowns a season ago. Such a lofty target shouldn’t be in sight this year, though sneaking into the end zone in the neighborhood of a dozen times isn’t out of the question.

Fantasy football preview: RB D’Andre Swift, Lions

Year 3 will be crucial for the versatile Lion. Here’s what to expect.

There are some fantasy football owners who look to avoid players from teams expected to be really bad. Historically, when struggling franchises are discussed, it doesn’t take long for the Detroit Lions to be mentioned. The organization has been mired near the bottom of the league for the last four years – posting a dismal 17-48 record in that span – but one player who brings reason for excitement is dual-threat running back D’Andre Swift.

He has missed chunks of time in his first two seasons – three games in 2020 and four games in 2021 – but the numbers he has put up demand fantasy attention, because he has been a poor man’s Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara in his double role in Detroit’s offense. It’s not just his rushing that makes him valuable. It’s his ability to be a three-down back.

In 13 games as a rookie, Swift rushed 114 times for 521 yards, caught 46 passes for 357 yards and scored 10 touchdowns. In 13 games last season, he rushed 151 times for 617 yards, caught 62 passes for 452 yards and scored seven touchdowns. When he went down early in Week 12 – missing almost five full games – he was leading NFL running backs in receptions, which pile up points in PPR formats.

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Injuries have prevented him from being a legitimate RB1, but there are reasons to believe the risk is worth the reward for making a run to get Swift on your fantasy roster. After a brutal start to the season, Jared Goff improved down the stretch – throwing 11 touchdowns with just two interceptions in his final five games. Swift also saw his numbers limited because Detroit’s defense was so awful (29th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed) that the Lions offense had to abandon the run in the second half too often.

However, the clear strength of the team is one of the most dominant offensive lines in the game. The team has three first-round picks up front – left tackle Taylor Decker, right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow. Left guard Jonah Jackson made the Pro Bowl last season, and right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai has been impressive since coming to Detroit in free agency, moving from tackle to guard. This front five can dominate the trenches and consistently open holes for Swift – the team’s 4.4-yard rushing average last year was its highest since 1998, when Barry Sanders was tearing up the league.

Fantasy football outlook

Swift doesn’t have to look over his shoulder for threats to playing time. Jamaal Williams has been a career backup who is dependable and workmanlike, and Craig Reynolds shined when Swift went down last season but isn’t seen as a challenge to Swift’s spot. There may be a few matchups in which Williams shoulders more of the load than Swift on the ground, but the third-year pro is far more explosive than the former Green Bay Packer.

Most rankings have Swift coming off the board not only as an RB1 but as a top six or seven back. That may be a little aggressive, but all signs point to head coach Dan Campbell allowing Swift to be the face of the offense and letting the offensive line overpower defenders.

Swift is a legitimate RB1 candidate after a 15th-place PPR finish a year ago, but until he proves he can stay healthy for a full season and be a weekly fantasy stud, there will be enough fantasy owners who will devalue him. If he can stay on the field, 1,500 total yards, 80 receptions and double-digit touchdowns aren’t out of the question. The risk here is well worth the reward.

Fantasy football team previews: NFC North

It’s time to catch up on all of the NFC North’s fantasy-based changes.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 7

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 7.

Every year when a team invests in a quarterback in the first round, there is one of two scenarios that tend to play out.

One is that they throw the guy in the first on Day 1 and take their chances. 2) Under ideal circumstances, the organization claims that it’s going to take time with the young quarterback and get him up to speed slowly.

That rarely happens. There were five quarterbacks taken in the first round this year and only two of them were slated to be starters right out of the gate – first overall pick Trevor Lawrence and second overall pick Zach Wilson. The other three were projected to be groomed.

That ended in New England with the surprise release of Cam Newton, ascending Mac Jones to the starting job for Week 1.

Then there were two.

The Andy Dalton Era in Chicago ended in Week 2 when he was injured and the job was given to rookie Justin Fields.

Then there was one.

The 49ers claimed that they intended to sit Trey Lance. He made is starting debut in Week 5 but is still nursing a calf injury coming out of the bye week, hindering his chance to stake a legitimate claim on the starting job from Jimmy Garoppolo.

If a quarterback (other than Jordan Love) is drafted in the first round, regardless of what a coach says, he becomes the starter sooner than projected and gets his chance to make his stand as a franchise guy – for better or worse.

If anything, that timeline is getting shorter all the time, but will it translate into seeing any of them enter upcoming editions of the Fantasy Football Market Report?

Fantasy Football Risers

RB Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

Being the primary running back in the Bears offense has been a pretty good gig this season. In the four games David Montgomery played before getting injured, he had a pair of 100-yard rushing games and scored three touchdowns. In the two games since he went down, Herbert has rushed 37 times for 172 yards and a touchdown. With injuries sidelining his in-house competition, Herbert could join the elite fantasy back by sheer production – 18 carries for 75 yards in Week 5 and 19 carries for 97 yards and a score last Sunday.

WR Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everyone keeps referring to Brown as the third wide receiver with the Bucs behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but that is in name only. Despite playing one fewer game that those two, Brown has 29 receptions (two behind Evans and five behind Godwin) and his 418 yards is second on the team (just two yards behind Evans). What makes Brown the more attractive option is that over the last three games is he leads the teams in targets (32), receptions (23), receiving yards (280) and touchdowns (3). He will still have stiff competition for receptions but has quickly become Tom Brady’s most used target.

QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts wasn’t a player anyone outside of Philly would have considered to be a regular fantasy starter, but he’s been about as consistent as any QB in the league in terms of not having the kind of game that loses a week for a fantasy owner. Through six games, he has accounted for two or more touchdowns in five of them. He has a pair of 300-yard passing games and is the Eagles’ leading rusher with 300 yards. At his current pace, he will rush for 850 yards and 14 touchdowns to go along with 23 touchdown passes. Most fantasy owners could live with those numbers, especially with the easiest part of his schedule coming up.

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RB Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs

The injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be a boom for Williams. While he didn’t post huge rushing numbers in his debut as the starter post-CEH, he rushed 21 times for 62 yards and scored two touchdowns. He accounted for 21 of the 24 rushing attempts for running backs for the Chiefs, and Andy Reid seems content to let him continue to be the primary (if not exclusive) running back in the system as long as Edwards-Helaire is out.

WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb has always been considered to be the No. 2 guy in the Cowboys’ pass offense behind Amari Cooper, but he has been putting together some very impressive weekly numbers. He leads the team in targets (49), receptions (33), receiving yards (497), average per reception (15.1), and is tied for the lead in touchdowns (4). He has four games with more than 80 receiving yards and, in his last two games, has blown up for 13 catches for 233 yards and three scores. Cooper may still be viewed as the top dog among Dallas receivers, but Lamb is making a case for himself that is pretty persuasive.

Fantasy Football Fallers

QB Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts

Wentz was drafted to either be a starter or in a platoon for someone who didn’t make a huge investment to land one of the top quarterbacks. However, he is starting to look much more like a game manager than a bona fide fantasy quarterback. He has thrown for more than 251 yards just once in six games and hasn’t accounted for more than two touchdowns in any game. At a time when QBs that can get you points with their legs and their arms, Wentz is a one-trick pony who doesn’t have a great trick. Over the last four games, he has rushed just nine times for 14 yards and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown this season. If 240 passing yards, no rushing yards and two touchdowns are what you want from a quarterback, he’s your guy.

RB D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

Big things were expected of Swift this season and, while he hasn’t been awful, he hasn’t shown any explosiveness. He leads the team with 34 receptions and has 295 receiving yards and one touchdown, so he brings value there. What is troubling is that he in a time share with Jamaal Williams at running back and appears to be losing that battle. Williams is averaging a full yard more per carry (4.3) than Swift (3.3). Over 65 carries, Swift has had a single carry of more than 16 yards. His four touchdowns in six games has been his saving grace, but when 51 yards is your high-water mark for any rushing in a game, that’s a problem that will be worse if the touchdowns start to dry up.

QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Rodgers isn’t having a bad season, but he was taken in drafts and auctions much higher this year than he was last year, because he was consistently dominant in 2020 on his way to the MVP. Last season, he threw for 280 or more yards 10 times and had three or more TD passes 12 times. Through six games, he has topped 280 yards just once and has three or more TD passes in just one game. Again, he is posting solid numbers (12 TD passes and two TD runs in six games). But, he just isn’t living up to the kind of expectations fantasy owners had coming off his brilliant 2020 season.

RB Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

Gordon was brought onto rosters to start more weeks than not, and it just hasn’t worked out with him. He is averaging fewer than 12 carries a game, has more than 60 rushing yards just once (in Week 1), and a long run of just 14 yards in the last five games. Over the last three weeks, Javonte Williams has had a carry of 30 yards or more in each game – the kind of production that gets you more opportunities. Those will come at the expense of Gordon, who has done little as a receiver with just 13 catches for 119 yards and no TDs in six games.

QB Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Mayfield has been nothing short of a bust most of the season. He has thrown just six passing touchdowns in six games, has four games with 246 or fewer passing yards, and has 11 or fewer rushing yards in five of six games. Granted, his top two receivers (Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry) have both missed time with injuries, but Mayfield’s production has fallen off hard after a strong finish to the 2020 season. He doesn’t look like a guy you want in your lineup every week with the expectation of winning, especially now that he’s nursing a shoulder injury.