Dan Campbell made two big fourth-down decisions against the 49ers. But the analytics aren’t why the Lions lost the NFC Championship game.
NFL broadcasters talk about “analytics” all the time without understanding what that word means at any level. Generally, it’s done in a dismissive tone and with a sense of disappointment in how the game has changed — i.e., the nerds have taken over, and football is worse for it.
Not that it matters, but NFL coaches have employed analytical thinking in their in-game decision-making processes for decades. Coaches may describe it as “going with my gut,” but they also use probability and tendency to try and make the best choices possible.
In the case of Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell and his team’s 34-31 NFC Championship loss to the San Francisco 49ers, it’s Campbell who will feel the sting of the analytical naysayers all offseason long. The Lions had a 24-7 halftime lead, which they proceeded to blow in the second half. Now, the Lions’ improbable Super Bowl journey is nothing but a broken dream.
Two play calls are front of mind for most who are looking to assign blame for Detroit’s collapse. With 7:03 left in the third quarter, the Lions had the ball at the San Francisco 28-yard line. Instead of having kicker Michael Badgley attempt a 46-yard field goal to go up 27-10, the Lions went for it. Jared Goff attempted a 12-yard curl route to receiver Josh Reynolds, but Goff was pressured and threw the ball short.
And with 7:38 left in the game, the Lions had the ball at the San Francisco 30-yard line. This time, the decision instead of a 48-yard field goal try was to have Goff hit receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on a deep crosser. Again, Goff was hurried, and again, the play didn’t work.
Now, most models favored going for it in those situations, or at least called it a relative push.
“I just felt really good about us converting and getting our momentum and not letting them play long ball,” Campbell said after the game. “They were bleeding the clock out. That’s what they do. And I wanted to get the upper hand back. And it’s easy hindsight, and I get it. I get that. But I don’t regret those decisions. And that’s hard. It’s hard because we didn’t come through. It wasn’t able to work out, but I don’t, I don’t. And I understand the scrutiny I’ll get. That’s part of the gig, man. But [it] just didn’t work out.”
My issue is not at all with the decision to go for it on those two plays. Badgley was an afterthought at kicker – he wasn’t active until Week 14 — and had attempted just one field goal of 40 or more yards this season. He made it in Week 17 against the Dallas Cowboys, but let’s stop pretending that those field goals would have been automatic. And outdoors, Badgley hadn’t made a field goal of 40 or more yards since the 2020 season.
And for the season, the Lions had converted 21 of 40 fourth-down attempts. This is who Campbell is, and this is who the Lions are.
“I loved them,” Goff said of the fourth-down decisions. “We’ve got to convert.”
My issue is with the play calls the Lions chose in those circumstances. Detroit’s run game had been dragging Steve Wilks’ 49ers defense up and down the field. For the game, Detroit ran the ball 29 times for 182 yards (a 6.3-yard average) and three touchdowns. On both of those conversion attempts, the 49ers’ desire to get after Goff would have left open gaps for Detroit’s running backs. David Montgomery had explosive running plays in this game of 14, 15 and 16 yards, which is about as consistent as you can get. This 16-yard run with 9:15 left in the game would have been pretty nifty a couple of minutes later.
On each of those runs, Goff was under center. Goff has been the NFL’s best under-center play-action passer this season, and by far the most prolific. Why would both of those conversion attempts have Goff in pistol, and the fourth-quarter attempt with Goff in empty? At least give the 49ers’ defense the possibility of a run in those situations.
So, before we chalk this all up to the alleged evils of analytics in football, we should consider that Campbell’s gambles weren’t wrong at all. It was the play calls that killed his team.
