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QB changes, suspension woes, and a chance to repeat dominate the NFC West’s outlook.
The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
A fake football reaction to fantasy owners losing Hopkins for six games.
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six games of the 2022 NFL season, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Cardinals’ Pro-Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins is being suspended six games for violating the NFL’s Performance Enhancing Drug policy, league sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/hNGNX4Aegx
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 2, 2022
In yet another setback for the league’s highest-paid receiver, the specific games Hopkins will miss are not yet known, but we’ll have clarity after the schedule release on May 12.
Last year, Hopkins suffered knee and hamstring injuries that cost him seven of the last nine games of the season. He underwent surgery to repair a torn medial collateral ligament and was on track to be fully recovered ahead of offseason activities. He turns 30 in June.
During Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft, Hopkins gained a new running mate in former Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown after the Cards traded for the 2019 draft’s 25th pick. Brown was acquired to offset the loss of Christian Kirk in free agency, and he’ll now be tasked with assuming the top receiver duties in Nuk’s absence. The collegiate connection between Hollywood and his “old-new” quarterback, Kyler Murray, should make for a smooth transition.
Other receivers asked to do more will be Rondale Moore, a second-year player who has the explosiveness in the open field to take a short pass the distance just about any time he touches the ball. Veteran A.J. Green re-signed to play his age-34 season in the desert after a so-so campaign a year ago with Arizona. He finished 2021 with a 54-848-3 line in 16 appearances as the WR42 in PPR scoring. Speedy wide receiver Andy Isabella also remains on the roster, although he has been the subject of trade chatter of late.
In addition to those moves, Arizona re-signed tight end Zach Ertz to a three-year extension, and tight end Trey McBride — widely viewed as the top rookie of this year’s class — was chosen in Round 2.
Finally, don’t discredit the above-average receiving skills of running back James Conner. Hopkins’ typically domineering target share creates a few more available looks to go around, including a trickle-down effect for safety values, such as the former Pittsburgh Steeler.
The move makes Hopkins a low-end No. 2 receiver target in reception-rewarding formats. He’ll definitely miss the six contests but also comes with elevated injury concerns after being tough as nails during his career. In early drafts, his average position was WR10 with an ADP of Pick 3:04. That should tumble into Round 6 or so with the suspension news. Every league will be slightly different, of course, with Hopkins going a little sooner and later. Having a feel for your league’s tendencies can help finely tune knowing when to strike optimal value. As always, he his a much more reliable contributor in PPR.
Brown’s value will be at its peak in 2022 during the six-game window the Cardinals are without Hopkins. Given the aforementioned familiarity and existing chemistry with Murray, Hollywood can play like a low-end WR1 during the suspension, given the right matchups, but he’s a much safer No. 2 lineup consideration. It’s reasonable to expect his big-play nature will continue to make him a more valuable start in non-PPR scoring.
Moore presents the most upside here. He can thrive with limited volume and also has the skill set to see the occasional gadget play come his direction. As a 2021 rookie, his career started off on a promising foot as Moore finished with at least 10 PPR points in three of the first five contests before fading into oblivion the rest of the way. Thanks to a full season under his belt, the electric Purdue product has serious boom potential in the early going. He’s getting drafted as a WR4/No. 5 in recent drafts, which is bound to move closer toward being a third in the near future. That said, his season-long value will take a substantial hit with Brown’s acquisition and the eventual return of Hopkins.
Green isn’t more than a late-round roster-filler at this point in his career, and even this news doesn’t give the veteran much of a boost in fantasy appeal. He’ll have flex utility in both prominent scoring systems while Hopkins is away, and that value craters with D-Hop’s return to the lineup.
While McBride may find a few more targets heading his way early in the season, rookie tight ends rarely contribute statistically in a fantasy-relevant manner. He is best reserved exclusively for daily fantasy cash games and showdown contests. Ertz, on the other hand, will be a weekly lineup fixture and figures to pace this passing game in volume during Hopkins’ stead.
As for Murray, he loses a bit of luster for the first third of the season. There’s still midrange starter’s worth to be found in the fourth-year quarterback, mainly thanks to his legs and top trio of remaining pass-catching outlets. Bump him down a notch or two in the overall rankings, though.
Will we hear “Hurts to Ertz” throughout the Thursday night telecast?
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
Tracking my predictions: 2-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury
Being on a two-game winning streak heading into Week 6 — after a few bad beats, no less — has me feeling much better about getting this thing turned around following an 0-3 start. Last week, the recommendation was New Orleans Saints WR Deonte Harris for a projected 18.8 PPR points. He broke the 80 percent threshold with a two-catch, 72-yard, one-TD performance (15.2 PPR) before exiting with an injury.
A few reasons make Ertz a risky play in fantasy football this week, but the upside to starting him outweighs those possible pitfalls. Tight end Dallas Goedert was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list Tuesday, meaning he has two clear the league’s protocol by passing tests in consecutive days as a fully vaccinated player. That means this goes right to the wire for a Thursday Night Football contest.
Other reasons for concern include the Buccaneers are exceptionally susceptible to attacks by wide receivers, and Philadelphia has a trio of capable weapons in DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, and Quez Watkins.
Then there’s the a backfield with a a pair of capable pass-catching options who could see more targets this week with the Bucs being so strong at limiting the running game. Teams tend to use short-area passing as a means to avoid the trenches and find a little freedom in space. Philadelphia has largely ignored its best playmaker in running back Miles Sanders, which I don’t see changing against Tampa’s run defense. There will be a few vicinity-based targets lost to RB Kenneth Gainwell that could go to Ertz.
Tampa did a remarkable job at limiting Miami’s Mike Gesicki last week as he was just starting to heat up. This point is rather subjective in the sense Miami’s situation is not all too close to Philadelphia’s in that Philly has a better QB and also one who can evade the pass rush in Jalen Hurts.
The Dolphins threw all day long to RB Myles Gaskin (10 catches) and were without two of the top receivers on the team. I won’t pretend it’s a 100 percent fair comparison to the Eagles’ situation for Ertz, but there’s some justifiable concern the play-calling could work in a similar fashion.
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Getting back on track, because this is about why you should play Ertz and not why to avoid him: Presuming Goedert is indeed absent, the bulk of the positional targets almost exclusively will be Ertz’s as undrafted rookie Jack Stoll has no track record to suggest otherwise.
The Buccaneers will be without linebacker Lavonte David and safety Antoine Winfield Jr., both of whom play key roles in defending the tight end position. DE Jason Pierre-Paul is questionable with shoulder and hand injuries. He not only applies considerable quarterback pressure but also drops into coverage as well as most linebackers.
Unlike with Miami’s Jacoby Brissett, Hurts can move around to buy time and direct his receivers to get open. Tampa Bay is more than capable of applying heat, even though the sack figures haven’t been there this year. Hurts’ escapability negates some of this edge, regardless of right tackle Lane Johnson being out again as he tends to personal matters.
After two quiet games to start the year, Ertz caught 10 of 15 targets for 113 yards and a score in Weeks 3 and 4 combined, going for 12 or more PPR points in each game. He was targeted six times last week vs. Carolina but held to just one catch — that’s a rarity, and credit goes to a quality Panthers defense of TEs.
The same cannot be said for that of Tampa Bay. Even when healthy, this group has struggled to limit the position dating back to last year, and some of it is by design — keep everything in front of the safeties and let them make tackles to avoid the big play. Tight ends have posted five games topping 10 PPR points against the Buccaneers so far, including last week when Tampa held Gesicki to just 8.3 points. All three touchdowns came in Weeks 3 (LAR) and 4 (NE) to teams not known as being TE powerhouses.
Ertz can paper cut this defense to death. I’m not expecting some kind of true renaissance for the nearly 31-year-old veteran, but he still has the chops to get it done for gamers in leagues that reward receptions, even if Ertz fails to find the end zone. Tight end is a volatile bunch. Between several key injuries and the arrival of bye weeks, gamers could do much, much worse than rolling the dice on Ertz turning back the clock for one night.
My projection: 5 receptions, 66 yards, 1 TD (17.6 PPR points)
Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 3.
People new to fantasy football often ask why running backs are the highest-paid in auctions and dominate the first round of every draft. It’s the same reason diamonds and gold are so expensive – they’re rare.
Running backs aren’t rare. Successful running backs are rare. Heading into Monday night’s game between the Lions and Packers, through two weeks of the 2021 season there were only 10 players who had rushed for 150 or more yards – and one of them was a quarterback (Lamar Jackson). On the flip side, 24 receivers had posted 150 or more yards and only one of them was a running back (Christian McCaffrey).
To make things even more pronounced, only one running back has accounted for more than 200 rushing yards (Derrick Henry). There are seven receivers with more than 200 receiving yards – and most if not all were available after a dozen running backs came off a draft board or broke a budget in an auction.
While quarterbacks and receivers are the ones who have the giant week that leads owners to victory, it’s having those few running backs capable of dominating that makes them so valuable.
It’s their rarity that makes them a commodity.
Here is the Week 3 Fantasy Football Market Report:
When it comes to our “Risers” list, we typically look at players who are either available or undervalued. The Ravens’ run game is clearly dominated by Lamar Jackson, but the role of de facto running back seemingly is always up for grabs. Mark Ingram. Gus Edwards. Dobbins. They all got their shot. Latavius Murray was the odds-on choice to be the lead dog, but, through two games, Murray has 19 carries for 64 yards (3.4 a pop with a long of eight). Williams has 22 carries for 142 yards (6.5 per tote with a run of 20 or more in each game). The reason the mantle gets passed in this offense is that the Ravens go with the hot hand and, unless he gets injured, that’s going to be Williams moving forward.
Two weeks through the season and the leading scorer in the NFL is Tommy Boy’s running buddy Gronk. He has scored four touchdowns in two games – all in the red zone. When Tom Brady gets near the goal line, guys like Mike Evans get the shine. But at the outer and middle edge of the red zone is when Gronk and their shorthand history with each other comes into play. If you own Gronk, his value will never be higher. There’s one ball in Tampa Bay and Brady has to spread it around. If Gronk stays healthy – a really big “if” – he can put himself back in the 2021 TE Mount Rushmore conversation with Kelce, Waller and Kittle. In tight end-mandatory leagues, he’s been a godsend. You can get “Kelce-style” return in a trade right now for one reason – Gronk has earned that respect.
Quick quiz for you. Who leads the Cardinals in targets with 13? Who leads them in receptions with 11? Who leads them in yards with 182? The answer to all of those is Moore – a second-round rookie slot speedster who has quickly earned not only the confidence of Kyler Murray but also of the coaching staff. In most leagues, he is considered a fourth receiver. That’s A.J. Green. He’s making a case that Christian Kirk is the No. 3 guy and he and DeAndre Hopkins are 1-2. He’s going to make more believers.
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Carr’s name never gets mentioned in the discussion of elite quarterbacks, but those who have had him as a backup or a QB1b in a tandem system know better – at least in fantasy terms. The Raiders aren’t shy about passing. Everyone knows that. But, they’re 2-0 in large part because Carr has thrown for 817 yards and four touchdowns. Keep in mind, these wins weren’t against the Jaguars and Texans. These were the Ravens and Steelers. If he is somehow still in a rotation, that has to stop, and he needs to be No. 1 and No. 1a, at worst.
Williams is no stranger to fantasy owners. He has been the Keenan McCardell of his era. He’s good for five or six passes for 60 or 70 yards and the occasional TD when pressed into a lineup. Last year in the first season paired with Justin Herbert, he was almost forgotten – catching 48 passes for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Those weren’t awful numbers, but they didn’t keep him in a fantasy lineup. In his first two games, Williams has 15 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns – about 30 percent of his 2020 numbers. Herbert has a new running buddy who requires acknowledgement.
Numbers speak volumes in the NFL. Numbers scream volumes in fantasy football. Christian McCaffrey and Barkley were No. 1 and 2 picks in most fantasy drafts in 2020. Both went down early to significant injuries. McCaffrey has reclaimed his spot. Barkley? Not so much. Two games into his Saquon 2.0 version, he has 23 carries for 83 yards, three catches for 13 yards and 39 fewer rushing yards than his quarterback. Seeing as 41 of Saquon’s 83 rushing yards came on one play, this is a time for legitimate concern and quiet reflection. How many more dud weeks can you take if you’re counting on Barkley?
Roethlisberger is glacial, so rushing points are a happy accident. If you’re playing Big Ben, it’s for passing production. Two games in, that translates to 483 yards and two touchdowns – numbers that won’t win weekly head-to-head matchups against just about anybody. He’s obviously part of a two-QB plan for those who have him on their rosters, but, against both the Bills and Raiders – admittedly two quality teams – he hasn’t earned a spot in a lineup where he is the QB1b. Toss in news of a recent left pectoral injury, and he’s QB2 unarguably and cut-bait for the twitchy.
In many circles, Robinson was viewed as a WR1 if you were in a 12-player league – 10-player in some. The obvious question was with which quarterback is he going to be that guy? Through two games with both QBs, he has eight catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. He’s transformed from a WR1 to an opponent-based play. Who would have seen this coming? Everyone? Targeted 15 times. All contested. Some double-contested. Until someone else emerges as a legitimate threat, he keeps getting doubled.
There was a time when, in tight end-mandatory leagues, if you had Ertz, you were talking tough. Now, you’re duck-and-cover. On a modest Eagles offense, he is seventh in targets and seventh in receptions. There was a time that those were league totals, not team totals. Four targets in two games. Smells like a draft night gamble turned waiver wire if you want him. You can have him.
Taylor was a guy that, if you were in auctions, bidding wars at times got a little out of hand. He was a hill to die on for some auctioneers. It hasn’t been a lack of opportunities with 32 carries for 107 yards and no TDs. And that was with seven in the box. Now there should be nine – eight at a minimum. Not ideal with a QB with two bad ankles.
Checking in on the fantasy football options whose value is rising and falling.
One of the things I believe that has made me consistently successful in fantasy football leagues is that I find a way to avoid teams altogether. This year as I prepared for the one fantasy football draft and one fantasy football auction that mean most to me, my list of teams I wanted nothing to do with under any circumstance was limited to the New York Jets, Washington Football Team and Jacksonville Jaguars. I entered the fray knowing there was no way I was going to end up with anyone on any of those teams. I would take Mecole Hardman before I took Terry McLaurin, D.J. Chark or Jamison Crowder…
That’s me.
Now I’m wondering if I want anyone from the NFC East – and that includes Dallas Cowboys RB Zeke Elliott. Saquon and Dak are gone. The Eagles can’t keep anyone but Carson Wentz healthy (who would have figured that?). As least Dak could post giant fantasy football numbers because his defense stunk. Saquon was the only Giant I wanted and I still want nobody from WFT — which is more in line with WTF.
Through six weeks of the season, the teams of the NFC East are a dumpster fire. They have a combined record of 5-18-1. If you take the games in which they didn’t play each other and one team likely had to win, their record is 2-15-1 outside the division.
This is bad on a scale rarely seen.
The good news? There is none.
The bad news? If things hold up in the NFL and the fantasy football playoffs are held in Weeks 14-16, of the 12 games those four teams will play, only one of them will be against a division opponent (when Dallas is scheduled to play Philly in Week 16). At least if they were playing each other, you could get excited about the inept possibilities.
In the leagues that matter to me, I am fortunately underrepresented by teams from the NFC East. More of you should join me.
Here is the Week 7 Fantasy Market Report:
For most of his short career, Jones has been a player with a lot of talent who never put it all together. In his first two seasons, he never rushed for more than 80 yards in a game. In his last three, he has topped 100 yards in each rushing 60 times for 330 yards and two touchdowns. It’s taken him two-and-half years to live up to being a big deal in Tampa, but he’s finally done it.
His stock took a dive (so did his team) to start the year, but people forget he played the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers in those game – and two were on the road. Once he got past that hurdle, over the last three games, he has topped 300 yards in each – throwing for 994 yards and nine touchdowns. Those are the kind of numbers he was drafted for and the reason he is almost unbenchable.
When Christian McCaffrey went down, seeing as he was the No. 1 overall pick in most leagues, it was a death blow. But, those who handcuffed McCaffrey with Davis have been keeping their heads above water. In the four games McCaffrey has been out, Davis has two games with 84 or more rushing yards and has scored a touchdown in each game. His role may greatly diminish when McCaffrey returns, but he has been a solid RB2 in any format.
Thielen was drafted to be a borderline WR1 – a guy barely in or barely out of the top 10 on draft day. But, while Justin Jefferson has been stealing the headlines of late, Thielen has seven touchdowns in six games and only has one game in which he didn’t score. He is a machine and the guy Kirk Cousins looks to when he needs a big catch. Minnesota may stink and his quarterback is a bum, but Thielen just keeps on rolling.
Henderson has become one of the more interesting backs this season as the guy grabbing the job to replace Todd Gurley. In the opener, he had just three carries for six yards. But, in the five games since, he has rushed for 80 or more yards three times and has scored four touchdowns. His disparity just keeps growing, even with Malcolm Brown and rookie Cam Akers available.
What made Jackson the MVP last year was that he was an incredible rushing threat, but also had three or more TD passes in seven of 15 games. This season, the only game he had three passing TDs was Week 1. He’s still someone I wish I had in every league. He’ll never be benched, but he hasn’t been light’s out, which is what everyone who took him as the first or second fantasy QB expected. I never want to go up against him, but he has yet to have that one-man gang game that blows an opponent out of the water.
The knock on Landry is that his value is much higher in PPR leagues because he has never been known as a touchdown threat. But, he’s been a bust in any format. He doesn’t have more than five receptions in any game, has just two games with more than 50 receiving yards (61 and 88) and his next touchdown will be his first touchdown. He’s pushed himself out of lineups and firmly in trade talks to move him as a name, not for his production.
He had the chance to be the go-to guy in the run game, especially when injuries made him about the only option. But, through six games, he has just one touchdown, brings little as a receiver in the Bills offense and, over the last three games, has rushed 39 times for just 113 yards. He is becoming a harder sell all the time to justify starting every week.
This a real head-scratcher. He’s expected to miss three or so weeks, but that is actually a good thing for Ertz owners. At a time when some tight ends can dominate weeks, Ertz was considered one of them, but hasn’t been that. Not even close. In six games, he has more than 42 yards receiving just once, less than 20 in half of them and has just one catch of more than 12 yards. At least he doesn’t hurt an owner now because his bad games don’t count against them.
You weren’t expecting a ton of touchdowns from Edelman, but you were expecting receptions and yards. In five games, he has just 20 catches for 302 yards – with eight receptions and 179 yards coming in one game. He proved against Seattle in Week 2 that he still has dominance in him, but, over the last three games, he has caught just seven passes for 66 yards. He’s borderline dump-worthy for those with deep rosters.
