3 players to avoid at all costs in fantasy football drafts

Drafting these three players could sink your fantasy season.

There are always players that the fantasy football “experts” pump up. It’s kind of an individual version of the Dallas Cowboys – always a perennial Super Bowl favorite despite not making it past the divisional round in the last 28 seasons. These players are consistently touted prior to drafts and rarely live up to the hype.

This year’s fantasy ADP rankings have some players who are a consensus pick at where they’re ranked but have no legitimate rationale to be where they’re slotted. Here are the three players you should avoid until the point someone else takes them too early.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 5

The most important risers and fallers in fantasy football.

One of the aspects of fantasy football that never fails to amaze me is when fantasy owners don’t take into account bye weeks. Week 5 will be the last time in a long time that every player on most rosters will be available.

Injuries do their part to gut fantasy rosters, so players who had no draft-day intention of being in the starting lineup are there more weeks than not. Bye weeks are a meaningless gutting – those guys are healthy, just not playing.

There will be eight weeks in which at least two and as many as six teams will be on bye. If you’re a seasoned fantasy player, you probably paid attention to the bye weeks as you were assembling a draft/auction roster, but a lot has happened since then.

A week from now it will dawn on some casual players that the bye weeks have started. You can be ahead of that curve and prepare for it now. If you see a week that will be rough, make a trade to diversify your roster. There will be someone in your league who effectively forfeits a week because too many key players are on their bye. Don’t let that be you.

Here is the Week 5 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy football mock draft series: July takeaways

Recapping a recent fantasy football industry draft to look for trends and more.

Fantasy football drafts are heating up as we enjoy summer weather and cold beverages. A recently hosted industry mock draft is the source for this recap. Out of respect for the hosts of this draft, no reference will be made to its identity so the content remains fresh on their end, nor will the entire draft results be published here.

The draft results will appear in a magazine as part of a larger evaluation of the draft. Before getting into my individual picks, here are a few observations from a 12-team, PPR draft.

  • In last June’s iteration, Round 1 saw seven running backs and five receivers, including Cooper Kupp going at No. 2 and Justin Jefferson as the third selection. This version saw Kupp drafted fourth and Jefferson seventh with nine RBs making up the rest of the round.
  • Six RBs came off the board in Round 2 in 2021’s June draft, followed by one fewer receiver and solo tight end. This year’s June draft was no different. In the July edition, five backs, one tight end, and six wideouts were chosen.
  • The first QB, Josh Allen, was taken with the opening pick of Round 5 in June. Justin Herbert went just two picks later, and only a pair of passers came off the board in the next 31 selections (Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes). This time around, Allen was Pick 5:05, and Mahomes went with the very next spot. Herbert went with the eighth pick in the fifth round. Seven quarterbacks went in the first 75 choices this time. Quarterback remains quite deep with a viable starter often being available into the 13th round.
  • Tight end remains a little top-heavy, just like last year. Following the consensus top-six TEs — all of whom went in the first five rounds — the position gets really dicey. If you’re not comfortable playing the matchups, make sure to secure one of Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Darren Waller or Dalton Schultz.
  • In the first 100 picks, nine QBs, 40 RBs, 43 WRs and eight TEs — no significant changes from the June version when eight quarterbacks, 38 RBs, 45 WRs and nine tight ends were chosen.
  • Pick 10 is an interesting spot this year. In the FSGA draft, which was a 14-teamer, it was brutal compared to a 12-squad setup. This draft having a dozen teams made me appreciate the slotting more than expected.

Here’s a snapshot of the first 10 rounds broken down by number of positional picks:

1st: 9 RBs, 3 WRs
2nd: 5 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE
3rd: 5 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs
4th: 4 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
5th: 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 5 WRs, 1 TE
6th: 3 QBs, 3 RB, 6 WRs
7th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs
8th: 1 QB, 4 RBs, 7 WRs
9th: 2 QBs, 5 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs
10th: 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 6 WRs

Tired of losing? Be sure to sign up for The Huddle today to gain an award-winning edge on the competition! We have 26 years of experience online building fantasy football champions.

My roster

Pos Player Team Bye
QB Aaron Rodgers GB 14
RB James Conner ARI 13
RB JK Dobbins BAL 10
RB Rashaad Penny SEA 11
RB Miles Sanders PHI 7
RB Hassan Haskins TEN 6
WR Ja’Marr Chase CIN 10
WR Stefon Diggs BUF 7
WR Jerry Jeudy DEN 9
WR Allen Lazard GB 14
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC 8
WR Jalen Tolbert DAL 9
TE Dalton Schultz DAL 9
TE Austin Hooper TEN 6
PK Matt Prater ARI 13
DT Los Angeles Chargers LAC 8

By round

Pick Rnd Player Tm Pos
10 1.1 Ja’Marr Chase CIN WR
15 2.3 Stefon Diggs BUF WR
34 3.1 James Conner ARI RB
39 4.3 J.K. Dobbins BAL RB
58 5.1 Dalton Schultz DAL TE
63 6.3 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR
82 7.1 Rashaad Penny SEA RB
87 8.3 Miles Sanders PHI RB
106 9.1 Allen Lazard GB WR
111 10.3 Aaron Rodgers GB QB
130 11.1 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC WR
135 12.3 Hassan Haskins TEN RB
154 13.1 Austin Hooper TEN TE
159 14.3 Jalen Tolbert DAL WR
178 15.1 Los Angeles Chargers LAC Def/ST
183 16.3 Matt Prater ARI K

Keeping the previous iterations’ format alive, each pick gets a brief explanation of my draft thoughts:

Fantasy football team previews: NFC West

QB changes, suspension woes, and a chance to repeat dominate the NFC West’s outlook.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 6

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 6.

Perhaps at no time during the 2021 season has having bench depth been more important to fantasy football owners. At a time when the bye weeks start depleting rosters, injury news (especially at running back) is causing a great gnashing of teeth for fantasy owners.

Owners gripe that there isn’t fantasy depth at running back on draft day, much less when players start dropping like flies. We’ve already seen promising fantasy prospects like Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Raheem Mostert and David Montgomery for the season. We’ve already seen Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Chris Carson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire missing time.

The bad news is we’re only five weeks into an 18-week season and, if history has taught us anything, the hits are going to keep on coming.

Fantasy football risers

RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

There is a lot to love about Robinson. It’s rare when you have an underdog “Rocky” type story, but Robinson has become that with two coaches who clearly didn’t believe in him. As a rookie last year, he got his shot only because the marriage with Leonard Fournette died an ugly death and he was cut a week before the start of the 2020 season. Robinson became the first undrafted rookie in NFL history to run for 1,000 yards. How did the Jags show their appreciation? The signed Carlos Hyde in free agency and used a first-round on Travis Etienne. Thanks a lot. After a brief time split, the Jags went back to Robinson in Week 3. In the three games since, he has rushed 51 times for 315 yards and has scored four touchdowns. He’s no longer a cute story. He’s a legitimate RB1 and nobody acknowledges it.

WR Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills

The Sanders signing had all the appearances of a Randall Cobb sort of deal. He’ll be the third guy in the wide receiver room and that will be that. Nobody got Manny down with that scenario. Through five games with an explosive pass offense, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have combined to score one touchdown. Sanders had four – in the last three games, where he has caught 13 passes for 222 yards and become the deep threat Diggs was last year. He’s still technically the No. 3 guy (No. 4 if you include Dawson Knox and his recent adventures), but Sanders is making it almost impossible for fantasy owners to keep him out of their weekly lineups.

RB Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

Few people respect the skills of Nick Chubb more than I do. That’s what made the Browns signing of Hunt so strange. Anyone who has Chubb likely doesn’t have Hunt as his handcuff, because Hunt is simply too talented to be available for handcuffing without having invested two picks on Cleveland RBs inside of the first five rounds. Chubb is still the main guy in the offense – in the last three games, he has rushed 63 times for 345 yards and one touchdown. Under ordinary circumstances, that would be death for the No. 2 guy. Hunt is the Browns’ leading receiver and, in the last three games, he has rushed 36 times for 211 yards and four touchdowns. At a time when running backs need to add touchdowns to the mix to win weeks for fantasy owners, Hunt is the rare breed who gets that done as a runner and receiver while clearly not being the No. 1 RB option with his team.

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Let’s be clear on this: Nobody is discussing Burrow in the MVP conversation. But, if you don’t have a Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert or Tom Brady on your roster providing the back-breaking numbers that help win you a week, you’re looking for consistency. Out of the gate in 2021, few have been as consistent as Burrow. He has thrown two or more touchdowns in every game and has topped 260 passing yards in three of those. He likely is a No. 2 QB on most rosters, but his consistency is his payoff. He has never left anyone who put him in their lineup empty-handed. That’s a skill savvy owners without the sexy QB names thrive on.

RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

This is a tough one to heartily endorse if not for the numbers. Connor is averaging just 3.2 yards a carry, but he has become the skinny version of Jerome Bettis of late-Steelers vintage. Back then, Fast Willie Parker is running between the 5s and Bettis bellyflops into the end zone for a quick six. Chase Edmonds and Kyler Murray are the main attractions in the Cardinals run game, but, when it gets to the goal line, Conner is the one calling for choppers. Over his last three games, his rushing average is brutal, but the bottom line is that he has rushed 39 times for 122 yards and five touchdowns. Look at how many RB1s have five rushing touchdowns. It’s a short list.

Fantasy football fallers

WR A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

In the season opener, Brown caught four passes for 49 yards and a touchdown. It’s hard to imagine that has been the high-water mark this season. His owners have played him three times since. In those three games, he has caught six passes for 81 yards and no touchdowns. Granted, anyone taking a Titans receiver understands Derrick Henry is going to have his days. But, even with the arrival of Julio Jones, in more cases than not, Brown was acquired to a fantasy roster as a WR1. He hasn’t lived up to that … even a little bit.

RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Jacobs was drafted as an RB2, unless you’re in a six-player league or avoided the position with your first two selections. He’s missed a game along the way and has scored three touchdowns, which is his only saving grace. In the three games he has played, he has rushed just 38 times for 122 yards and caught 10 passes for just 42 yards. If not for his three TDs, he would be a complete bust. Even with them, he isn’t worthy of being a guaranteed start every week.

WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

OBJ missed the first two games of the season, but in the three he has been back – without Jarvis Landry in the last two – he has been a liability. Last weekend, the Browns put up a ton of production. It didn’t include Odell. In his last two games, he has four catches for 47 yards. That’s it. He hasn’t been a good fit since he came to Cleveland, and nothing has changed.

RB David Johnson, Houston Texans

Johnson has lived off of 2016 more than anyone. When he had his breakout season in Arizona, he became a “made man” in the fantasy community. He still has fantasy cred in some circles, but it’s time to call it. His only touchdown came in Week 1 (a reception) and, through five games, he has 31 touches for 255 yards. Mark Ingram has 70 touches. It’s time to admit defeat where defeat is obvious. The J-Train has seen its last run.

WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

In the first two weeks of the season, Lockett had 12 catches for 278 yards and three touchdowns. In the three games since, he has 13 catches for 117 yards and no touchdowns. In that same period, DK Metcalf has 15 receptions for 270 yards and four touchdowns. Oh, and by the way, Russell Wilson isn’t coming back anytime soon. Think Geno Smith is going to produce the kind of numbers that make Lockett a must-play? Not the recipe for success that was manifested in Week 1 and 2. Penthouse to outhouse in a hurry.

Cardinals sign James Conner to bolster backfield

Will Conner rebound his fantasy stock in the desert?

It didn’t take long for the Arizona Cardinals’ brass to decide it is pleased with the results from former Pittsburgh Steelers running back James Conner’s recent toe surgery. The injury — described as a moderate, turf toe-like situation — was suffered on a recreational vehicle and required an operation that is expected to have Conner back on the field in June.

This was enough for Cardinals general manager Steve Keim to give the thumbs up on inking Conner to a one-year deal.

Arizona lost running back Kenyan Drake to free agency, and No. 2 man Chase Edmonds needed a new partner in crime. Conner enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2018 when Le’Veon Bell chose to sit out over a contract dispute. The past two seasons have gone anything but great for the Pitt product, and there’s mutual hope between Conner and the Cards that his fortunes will turn around in the desert.

[lawrence-related id=457636]

Conner has yet to play a full season in four years, reaching 13 games twice, and his 13 offensive touchdowns in the past 23 games ties his 13-contest output from the ’18 season. Arizona likely expects the 2018 version of Conner, but fantasy footballers should fully brace for the 2019-20 iteration. In Conner’s defense, the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger most of 2019 and then had a disastrous offensive line and erratic play-calling issues last year. Pro Football Focus ranked the line’s run-blocking grade as the second worst in football.

A versatile back, Conner finds himself sharing time with a legitimate talent in Edmonds. While used sparingly over his first two NFL seasons, the Fordham back burst onto the scene in fantasy after a three-TD game in 2019, racking up 150 offensive yards along the way. Just when he started to get rolling, Edmonds’ season was derailed by injury.

In 2020, he split time with Drake, mainly as a receiving threat, as the third-year back hauled in 53 of 67 targets for 402 yard and four scores. He was hardly utilized as a rusher, carrying the ball more than eight times in two games, one of which Drake was absent.

The Cardinals of 2020 afforded Drake 239 carries, or 15.9 per game, over his 15 appearances. For as much passing as the Air Raid offense wants to do, and did in 2019, the reality is this was a run-positive system a season ago. Seven teams rushed with a higher frequency in 2020.

Drake found the end zone at the 12th-highest frequency among qualifying backs (150-plus attempts), and only six running backs toted the ball more on a weekly clip. He saw his receiving work dissipate from 2019’s second half, and Drake’s core fantasy worth came from scoring 10 times.

Conner showed a nose for the goal line of his own in 2018, and as long as he can remain healthy, a similar utilization plan should be in store. He enters Year 5 at age 26. Arizona offers little competition for touchdown thievery on the turf, outside of quarterback Kyler Murray. The Cardinals upgraded the offensive line in a significant fashion this offseason, trading for Las Vegas Raiders standout center Rodney Hudson.

Fantasy football takeaway

There is potential for a value buy in fantasy football drafts. Conner’s past two seasons of mediocrity should have soured enough owners, and the perception that Arizona is extraordinarily pass-happy also could depress his stock.

Injuries come with the territory for Conner. Presuming he rebounds from this latest toe ailment — a scary one for a rusher — there’s still probably going to be more games missed in his future. The Cardinals should utilize him similarly to how Drake was featured, as long as Conner produces. Should his game never get off the ground or stagnate midseason, don’t discredit the idea of this offense being turned over to Edmonds.

Just to be safe, keep tabs on Conner’s recovery from the toe surgery. It appears we’re likely to see as close to a normal of an NFL offseason program as one should expect, and that means we will get to see some obvious signs of his health status play out on the practice field.

Giving Conner the benefit of the doubt by presuming he’s ready for training camp (and that there is one), fantasy footballers should treat him as a risky-reward RB2 candidate. It wouldn’t hurt to snag Edmonds later in the draft as insurance given Conner’s extensive injury background.