We are in a transition season in the NFL. Whether it was COVID-19 that kept teams from building up to the regular season or simply the tipping point of games being predominantly high-scoring, what has happened through four weeks in the 2020 NFL is startling and unprecedented.
Teams are routinely scoring 30 points or more – at a record-setting pace.
To put it in perspective, in the previous five seasons – four of those consisting of 63 games because of the start of bye season and one with 64 – there was a consistency to how many teams would have a high-scoring game of 30+ points. From 2015-19, through four weeks of the season, the numbers of teams who scored 30 or more in a game was a near-flat line (30-32-28-33-28). That’s crazy consistent.
Heading into Monday’s Atlanta-Green Bay game, there had been 62 games played. In those games, 51 teams scored 30 or more points in a game. Green Bay became the 52nd when they dropped 30 points on Atlanta.
In the previous five years, it tended to be only one team that scored 30+. Of the 151 teams that scored 30 or more, they won 85 percent of the games (128-23).
Last year, if you scored 30 in Weeks 1-4, you had a winning percentage of more than 89 percent (25-3). This year? Teams scoring 30 or more points won 39 games, but 12 who also scored 30 have lost. That’s an average of three games a week in which both teams hit that lofty number and they combined to have a winning percentage of 76.5 percent.
Is it a sign of the times? Is it a sign of no training camp or preseason that has given offenses the clear edge to move the ball? All fantasy players know is that points are up and they like it that way…unless the bomb drops on them.
Here is the Week 5 Fantasy Market Report:
Fantasy Football Risers
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
There’s a strange simpatico fantasy owners have with Dallas quarterbacks. Guys didn’t love Tony Romo, but drafted him every year because they wished for Dallas to fall behind by double digits early and it was game-on for garbage points trying to come back.
Over the last three weeks, Prescott has thrown for an ungodly 1,424 yards with eight touchdown passes and three TD runs. His pass-yardage total has been 450, 472 and 502. Who cares if his team sucks. He’s taking fantasy owners to the pay window all by himself.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns
Sometimes Dame Fortune smiles on a guy. In 2017, I was in three leagues. The only player I had in all of them was Hunt. He was incredible. His career took a major backward step, but, as the clear No. 2 guy in Cleveland – he hasn’t had more than 17 touches in a game – he has managed to rush for 275 yards and has scored five touchdowns in his last three games.
With Nick Chubb down for a month or more, Hunt has every chance to relive his eye-popping rookie season.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The word, as it has been every time Brady has struggled in the first couple of games, was that he was washed up. He’s hit the wall. In his first two games with the Bucs, he didn’t hit 240 yards, had as many interceptions (3) as touchdowns and had a passer rating under 80.0.
In the last two games? 666 passing yards (make what you want out of that) with eight touchdowns, one pick and a passer rating over 116.0. Seems like the Brady we remember…again.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
If consistency is what you’re looking for, look no further. In four games, he has caught four passes in each. That would be reason for benching in a lot of leagues. But, he has yardage totals of 95, 92, 110 and 106. He has averaged 23 yards a catch or better in every game (25.2 overall) and has scored a touchdown in three of four games.
Metcalf is going to be a superstar and won’t be had as reasonably as he has been his first two season on fantasy draft day. Russ is going to get him paid – whether with Seattle or somewhere else.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team
This is a sneaky play designed for being an option when bye weeks hit. He hasn’t rushed for more than 55 yards in any game, but his carry-share has been going up significantly. He has scored a rushing touchdown in each of the last three games and his competition in the Washington backfield is quickly disappearing, while his is stock is going up.
Nobody with other viable options will start Gibson, but he could be nice to have on your roster as a throw-in on a trade to stash in case COVID times get desperate.
Fantasy Football Fallers
Josh Jacobs, RB, Oakland Raiders
Jacobs was selected on fantasy rosters to be that owner’s No. 1 running back. When he rushed for three touchdowns in Week 1, he was locked into lineups regardless of what followed. Since then, his rushing attempts have dropped (27-16-15), his yardage has dropped (88-71-48), he is little more than a check-down receiver and he hasn’t scored a touchdown. You can’t bench him because of his role in the Vegas offense. You may want to. You just can’t.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Jackson is a polarizing player. By any measure, he should have Julian Edelman-style reception numbers, yet he has never been able to be anything more than a one-trick pony. And, in his second run in Philadelphia, he’s been cashing checks and showing nothing. A quarter of the way through the season, he has 10 catches for 121 yards, no touchdowns and is nursing an injury. If you have him on your roster, cut him or trade him immediately. He’s taking up space that could be better utilized by someone else.
Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants
In leagues in which tight ends are mandatory, there have been a lot of big days posted along the way. Not by Engram. He is the Giants leading receiver in terms of targets (30) and catches (17), but he’s Marcedes Lewis 2.0.
For all his athleticism and talent, he averaged 7.7 yards a catch with only one of more than 12 yards and has no touchdowns. Those in TE-required leagues likely aren’t benching him, but they’re getting beat in their weekly position battles by their opponents because Engram is giving them scraps.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
Montgomery was one of those guys in draft rankings that was expected to become an elite fantasy back. You shook the Magic 8-Ball. “All Signs Point to Yes.”
The Bears have been playing light’s out defense, which typically gets a running back a lot of play. But, through four games, Montgomery has just 53 carries for 218 yards and no touchdowns – and 24-72-0 rushing numbers over the last two – and his only touchdown was on a check-down pass that broke wide open. He was drafted to be an NFL RB1, but hasn’t showed it.
Irv Smith, TE, Minnesota Vikings
When Minnesota drafted Smith last year, the thought was that he would take over the role Kyle Rudolph has as one of the most potent Red Zone tight ends in the league. Instead, through four games, Smith has been healthy, but targeted just six times, catching two passes for 14 yards and no touchdowns. He’s rendered himself unplayable and, at this point, most people who took a flyer on him have bailed.