Fantasy football: Green Bay agrees to terms with Josh Jacobs

One of the top backs in free agency finds a new home.

The Green Bay Packers opted to let running back AJ Dillon walk into free agency without an extension, and the team held contract negotiations with veteran Aaron Jones. In what is a mildly surprising move, former Las Vegas Raiders back Josh Jacobs has agreed to join the Packers during the early stages of the “open tampering” period.

Update: Jones was entering the final year of his contract, set to count more than $17 million against the cap, which opened the door for his release.

Fantasy football outlook

Now that Jones is out of the way, Jacobs will be a workhorse in Green Bay, and his overall fantasy value won’t deviate from RB1 draft status. Don’t be alarmed when the Packers draft or sign another back to spell him. As long as the former Raider is upright, he’s poised for a strong fantasy season, especially in PPR.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs ends his holdout

The star runner signed a one-year deal to return to the Raiders.

The Las Vegas Raiders and running back Josh Jacobs have agreed to terms on a one-year deal worth up to $12 million, per sources on Saturday, Aug. 26. The base value of the deal is worth $11.8 million and includes $200,000 in incentives.

Jacobs, 25, remains in his prime but is coming off a 393-touch workload, which should give gamers pause since 2022 was the first time in his NFL career in which he managed to play every game. Historically, once a back gets into that 330- to 350-carry range, all bets are off when it comes to continuing their success into the next season. To his credit, Jacobs wasn’t heavily utilized at Alabama and is young enough where perhaps he defies the odds one more season, but it is a risk that’s impossible to ignore.

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One other aspect to consider is that Jacobs has hauled in at least 53 passes in each of the last two seasons. With the addition of possession man Jakobi Meyers to pair with ball-hog Davante Adams and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, it’s entirely reasonable to expect his receiving numbers will fall off a bit. Don’t blindly assume Jimmy Garoppolo dumps it off as much as the more mobile Derek Carr did when plays weren’t scripted to go Jacobs’ way, and there’s another huge question about what happens if Jimmy G. were to miss significant time due to injury. The backup situation isn’t looking so pretty in Vegas.

It’s easy to get wrapped up in the stats from last season and expect similar results. It’s also common to have rostered a player in the past and then feel compelled to go back to him the next year out of comfort. Jacobs is an extremely talented back who does a number of things to help fantasy teams, but there is a minuscule chance he replicates what should prove to be a personal-best season when we look back on his professional career in a few years.

Fantasy football value

Now that he has signed, expect the current average draft position of RB8 (No. 20 overall) to rise into the RB3 conversation with Saquon Barkley, making Jacobs roughly between the sixth and ninth player chosen in Round 1 of PPR drafts. Make sure you back him up with Zamir White, a capable handcuff who won’t return much value without an injury, but you surely will be glad he is on your roster should Jacobs be forced out of action.

Fantasy football: 2023 NFL free agency roundup

NFL free agency will drastically help reshape the fantasy football landscape as the new league year begins.

Now that NFL free agency is upon us, we’ll run through the fantasy football outlooks for trades, re-signings, midrange players, and tag recipients.

This analysis will be updated as players sign/re-sign in free agency, so be sure to check back regularly.

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Fantasy football injury outlook: RB Kenyan Drake, Raiders

Will Drake rebound from injury and a poor 2021 showing?

Little more than a curiosity during much of his three-plus seasons with the Miami Dolphins, running back Kenyan Drake truly emerged as a fantasy force after being acquired by the Arizona Cardinals in 2019 when he racked up 814 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games with the club. He followed that up with 1,092 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2020 — while not exactly disappointing, there was a significant per-game drop from 101.8 yards per outing to 72.8.

That dip in efficiency didn’t dissuade the Las Vegas Raiders from signing Drake to a two-year, $14.5 million contract before last season with $11 million guaranteed. Theoretically, the plan was to use Drake in conjunction with Josh Jacobs, but after totaling 34 touches over the season’s first three weeks, the former Cardinal would see double-digit opportunities just twice in his remaining nine games.

Drake’s season ended abruptly on Dec. 5 when he suffered a fractured right ankle. The injury required surgery, but there have been no reported complications, and the veteran is believed to be healing fine with the expectation he’ll be ready for camp. While there was some speculation about job security, the Raiders restructured Drake’s contract in March, so it’d be surprising not to see his name behind Jacobs on the depth chart.

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The question is whether the new coaching staff, led by head coach Josh McDaniels, who was hired after a 10-year run as offensive coordinator with the New England Patriots, will find more opportunities for Drake to contribute. If you take McDaniels’ approach with the Pats as a guide, the answer appears to be yes, as that offense utilized backs in specialized roles for many years. In fact, in those 10 seasons on the job, McDaniels presided over just two 1,000-yard backs, the most recent coming in 2016.

With the Raiders declining Jacobs’ fifth-year option, it’s clear they don’t necessarily view him as part of their future, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them use Jacobs more sparingly after watching his production decline each of his first three NFL seasons. The most logical stand in for Drake is probably James White, who was an effective passing-down back during McDaniels’ time in New England. While it has been a forgotten element of Drake’s game, remember that he caught 85 passes with the Dolphins in 2017-18 combined.

Fantasy football outlook

Based purely on his first season in Las Vegas, Drake shouldn’t be drafted. So many things have changed since then, however, you can’t read much into it. We know McDaniels likes to use multiple backs, and barring something unforeseen the top two will be Jacobs and Drake. There could even be a small role for rookie Zamir White, but it would come at the expense of Jacobs. While the shine of his days in Arizona is gone, Drake could be worth a late-round flier.

Fantasy football team previews: AFC West

Huge changes with Denver and Vegas look to turn the division on its head.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 6

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 6.

Perhaps at no time during the 2021 season has having bench depth been more important to fantasy football owners. At a time when the bye weeks start depleting rosters, injury news (especially at running back) is causing a great gnashing of teeth for fantasy owners.

Owners gripe that there isn’t fantasy depth at running back on draft day, much less when players start dropping like flies. We’ve already seen promising fantasy prospects like Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Raheem Mostert and David Montgomery for the season. We’ve already seen Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Chris Carson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire missing time.

The bad news is we’re only five weeks into an 18-week season and, if history has taught us anything, the hits are going to keep on coming.

Fantasy football risers

RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

There is a lot to love about Robinson. It’s rare when you have an underdog “Rocky” type story, but Robinson has become that with two coaches who clearly didn’t believe in him. As a rookie last year, he got his shot only because the marriage with Leonard Fournette died an ugly death and he was cut a week before the start of the 2020 season. Robinson became the first undrafted rookie in NFL history to run for 1,000 yards. How did the Jags show their appreciation? The signed Carlos Hyde in free agency and used a first-round on Travis Etienne. Thanks a lot. After a brief time split, the Jags went back to Robinson in Week 3. In the three games since, he has rushed 51 times for 315 yards and has scored four touchdowns. He’s no longer a cute story. He’s a legitimate RB1 and nobody acknowledges it.

WR Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills

The Sanders signing had all the appearances of a Randall Cobb sort of deal. He’ll be the third guy in the wide receiver room and that will be that. Nobody got Manny down with that scenario. Through five games with an explosive pass offense, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have combined to score one touchdown. Sanders had four – in the last three games, where he has caught 13 passes for 222 yards and become the deep threat Diggs was last year. He’s still technically the No. 3 guy (No. 4 if you include Dawson Knox and his recent adventures), but Sanders is making it almost impossible for fantasy owners to keep him out of their weekly lineups.

RB Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

Few people respect the skills of Nick Chubb more than I do. That’s what made the Browns signing of Hunt so strange. Anyone who has Chubb likely doesn’t have Hunt as his handcuff, because Hunt is simply too talented to be available for handcuffing without having invested two picks on Cleveland RBs inside of the first five rounds. Chubb is still the main guy in the offense – in the last three games, he has rushed 63 times for 345 yards and one touchdown. Under ordinary circumstances, that would be death for the No. 2 guy. Hunt is the Browns’ leading receiver and, in the last three games, he has rushed 36 times for 211 yards and four touchdowns. At a time when running backs need to add touchdowns to the mix to win weeks for fantasy owners, Hunt is the rare breed who gets that done as a runner and receiver while clearly not being the No. 1 RB option with his team.

QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Let’s be clear on this: Nobody is discussing Burrow in the MVP conversation. But, if you don’t have a Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert or Tom Brady on your roster providing the back-breaking numbers that help win you a week, you’re looking for consistency. Out of the gate in 2021, few have been as consistent as Burrow. He has thrown two or more touchdowns in every game and has topped 260 passing yards in three of those. He likely is a No. 2 QB on most rosters, but his consistency is his payoff. He has never left anyone who put him in their lineup empty-handed. That’s a skill savvy owners without the sexy QB names thrive on.

RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

This is a tough one to heartily endorse if not for the numbers. Connor is averaging just 3.2 yards a carry, but he has become the skinny version of Jerome Bettis of late-Steelers vintage. Back then, Fast Willie Parker is running between the 5s and Bettis bellyflops into the end zone for a quick six. Chase Edmonds and Kyler Murray are the main attractions in the Cardinals run game, but, when it gets to the goal line, Conner is the one calling for choppers. Over his last three games, his rushing average is brutal, but the bottom line is that he has rushed 39 times for 122 yards and five touchdowns. Look at how many RB1s have five rushing touchdowns. It’s a short list.

Fantasy football fallers

WR A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

In the season opener, Brown caught four passes for 49 yards and a touchdown. It’s hard to imagine that has been the high-water mark this season. His owners have played him three times since. In those three games, he has caught six passes for 81 yards and no touchdowns. Granted, anyone taking a Titans receiver understands Derrick Henry is going to have his days. But, even with the arrival of Julio Jones, in more cases than not, Brown was acquired to a fantasy roster as a WR1. He hasn’t lived up to that … even a little bit.

RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Jacobs was drafted as an RB2, unless you’re in a six-player league or avoided the position with your first two selections. He’s missed a game along the way and has scored three touchdowns, which is his only saving grace. In the three games he has played, he has rushed just 38 times for 122 yards and caught 10 passes for just 42 yards. If not for his three TDs, he would be a complete bust. Even with them, he isn’t worthy of being a guaranteed start every week.

WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns

OBJ missed the first two games of the season, but in the three he has been back – without Jarvis Landry in the last two – he has been a liability. Last weekend, the Browns put up a ton of production. It didn’t include Odell. In his last two games, he has four catches for 47 yards. That’s it. He hasn’t been a good fit since he came to Cleveland, and nothing has changed.

RB David Johnson, Houston Texans

Johnson has lived off of 2016 more than anyone. When he had his breakout season in Arizona, he became a “made man” in the fantasy community. He still has fantasy cred in some circles, but it’s time to call it. His only touchdown came in Week 1 (a reception) and, through five games, he has 31 touches for 255 yards. Mark Ingram has 70 touches. It’s time to admit defeat where defeat is obvious. The J-Train has seen its last run.

WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

In the first two weeks of the season, Lockett had 12 catches for 278 yards and three touchdowns. In the three games since, he has 13 catches for 117 yards and no touchdowns. In that same period, DK Metcalf has 15 receptions for 270 yards and four touchdowns. Oh, and by the way, Russell Wilson isn’t coming back anytime soon. Think Geno Smith is going to produce the kind of numbers that make Lockett a must-play? Not the recipe for success that was manifested in Week 1 and 2. Penthouse to outhouse in a hurry.