Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 11

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 11.

In fantasy circles, running backs are a premium because so few consistently carry 15 times or more in games. That’s what made Derrick Henry such a joy to watch (and have on your roster. In the eight games before injury, Henry had 219 carries for 937 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. After having 17 carries in Week 1, he had 20 or more in all of the subsequent seven games, including 28 or more carries in six of those.

So, with him gone, who picks up the mantle for the workhorse running backs? Hint: There aren’t many. By my count, there are currently just four.

Dalvin Cook has 15 or more carries six of seven games played. In the two games he has missed, backup Alexander Mattison has rushed 51 times for 225 yards. Jonathan Taylor has come into his own, with 15-plus carries in eight of 10 games. Najee Harris has hit that number in seven of nine games, including five straight games with 22 or more carries (the Steelers are 4-0-1 in those games). Alvin Kamara has 15 or more carries in six of eight games played.

A case can be made that the Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears backfields fit in that category, but injuries of kept them down. If you ever wonder why elite running backs remain the most expensive fantasy investments, that should answer your question. So few are dominant that it makes them more precious, and King Henry was the gold standard.

Here is the Week 11 Fantasy Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

QB Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

It’s rare when you have the opportunity to acquire a quarterback off the waiver wire who has the potential to have the kind of games Newton is capable of having. He isn’t the star he was when the Panthers went to the Super Bowl, but when you have Christian McCaffrey as an ultimate weapon and a strong pair of veteran receivers, Newton has the ability to be a fantasy starter with the right matchups. He’s not an every-week starter, but he can bolster a roster and be a pick-and-choose type that can be plugged in as needed.

RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers

When the Packers drafted Dillon, they did so because they understand the conditions in which Green Bay plays – often a combination of cold, wind and snow. Dillon is a hammer whose value goes up as it comes to be later in the year. That is even more pronounced now that the regular season stretches into mid-January. Aaron Jones made the Fallers list due earlier this month due to not having more than 15 carries in any game since Week 3, and much of that was due to Dillon’s presence and his ability to be a banger between the tackles when they need it. Since Week 3, Green Bay has had two games with a runner with more than 15 carries – Dillon at Arizona Oct. 28 and Dillon Sunday against Seattle. He will likely be a 1b option when Jones returns after spraining a knee ligament, but he has two weeks to make his case to be in a time share, if not the lead dog as weather in the Great White North deteriorates.

WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles

Consistency has been an issue with the Eagles offense all season, and it’s always an issue when dealing with rookie wide receivers. However, Smith has topped 60 yards in five of the last seven games. In the last two, he has been the big-play threat in the Philly offense, catching nine passes for 182 yards (more than 20 a catch) and has scored three touchdowns. For much of the season, he was showing promise, but it wasn’t translating into consistent big plays or touchdowns. Now it is starting to show, and his value is gaining steam.

RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

Ingram was the leading rusher in Houston, but nobody felt confident that he could produce the kind of numbers needed to be in a fantasy lineup. When he was in New Orleans to start his career, once Alvin Kamara arrived, his role changed, but his ability to have big weeks continued. Running backs are the most difficult commodities to obtain in fantasy leagues. Ingram is the No. 2 guy, but Sean Payton is still the head coach and still calls the plays. He knows better than anyone what Ingram can do in his offense. He’s not a handcuff for Kamara, who happens to be out with a knee sprain of his own. He can post numbers as a rusher and receiver on his own. Playing alongside Kamara limits some of those opportunities, but look back at his first run in New Orleans. He will have his share of fantasy moments.

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RB Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos

The funny thing about Gordon is that those who have him on their roster get frustrated because he’s clearly in a time share in Denver’s backfield. In his last seven games, he has rushed more than 10 times just once. But, his bottom line is that he has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games. I wouldn’t want to have my fantasy season hinging on Gordon having a huge game, but, if you need someone who has consistently been putting up consistent weekly numbers as a runner, receiver and scorer, Gordon checks a lot of boxes in that regard.

Fantasy Football Fallers

WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

In the first two games of the season, Lockett was on fire, catching 12 passes for 278 yards and three touchdowns. In the seven games since? 31 catches for 324 yards and no touchdowns. That works out to four catches for 46 yards a game. You can’t blame his lack of production on Russell Wilson missing time. In that same seven-game span, DK Metcalf has caught 32 passes for 493 yards and seven touchdowns. Lockett is still a talent who fantasy owners will have a hard time miring on their benches, but it seems like it is time to make Lockett a matchup-only type of play.

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

The best thing that happened to Roethlisberger owners is that he didn’t play last week due to COVID protocol against the Detroit Lions, because there may have been the temptation. At a time when quarterbacks routinely throw for 300 yards, Big Ben has done it just once – and that was in Week 3. More troubling is that he has 10 touchdowns in eight games – two games with two TD passes and six with one TD. Given that he is a glacier in the backfield and hasn’t earned a single point for rushing if you go on the point-for-10-yards standard. He has six yards rushing all season. I would rather take a chance with a QB left on the waiver wire gut pile than go with Roethlisberger with the expectations of having a big fantasy day.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight ends

In the first two games of the season, Rob Gronkowski scored four touchdowns. In his first three games, he caught 16 passes. He hasn’t caught a pass in the last six games due to injury, yet he leads Tampa Bay tight ends in receptions. Cameron Brate has played in all nine games for the Bucs and has caught 14 passes for 131 yards and one touchdown. O.J. Howard has played in all nine games and has caught 13 passes for 125 yards and one touchdown. Given how the Tampa Bay offense (and the Tom Brady offense) has routinely included a heavy dose of tight ends, it’s shocking that neither Brate nor Howard has filled in the void left by Gronk’s injury. They’re posting the kind of numbers glorified offensive linemen put up and have reached the point of not being able to live up to their talent or their past histories.

WR Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns

With all the upside the Browns came into season with, Landry may be the next disgruntled receiver looking to work his way out of town. He has missed four of the Browns’ 10 games due to injury and, in the six he has played, he has caught just 23 passes for 219 yards no touchdowns. That works out to an average of four catches for 37 yards and no scores. Futility like that is difficult to maintain over a long stretch, but he has managed.

RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team

Coming off a season in which he emerged as a fantasy threat with 11 rushing touchdowns, Gibson was taken in fantasy leagues to be a starter most if not all weeks. In his last seven games, he hasn’t rushed for 65 yards in any of them and, aside from a 73-yard screen-turned-touchdown as a receiver, he has caught 18 passes for just 85 yards in the other eight games. Instead of being a weekly must-start, Gibson is player who is in lineups more by force than choice. Granted, he has scored six touchdowns, but fantasy football is played on a weekly basis and, many more weeks than not, he has come up empty.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 3

Fantasy football risers and fallers entering Week 3.

People new to fantasy football often ask why running backs are the highest-paid in auctions and dominate the first round of every draft. It’s the same reason diamonds and gold are so expensive – they’re rare.

Running backs aren’t rare. Successful running backs are rare. Heading into Monday night’s game between the Lions and Packers, through two weeks of the 2021 season there were only 10 players who had rushed for 150 or more yards – and one of them was a quarterback (Lamar Jackson). On the flip side, 24 receivers had posted 150 or more yards and only one of them was a running back (Christian McCaffrey).

To make things even more pronounced, only one running back has accounted for more than 200 rushing yards (Derrick Henry). There are seven receivers with more than 200 receiving yards – and most if not all were available after a dozen running backs came off a draft board or broke a budget in an auction.

While quarterbacks and receivers are the ones who have the giant week that leads owners to victory, it’s having those few running backs capable of dominating that makes them so valuable.

It’s their rarity that makes them a commodity.

Here is the Week 3 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy football risers

RB Ty’Son Williams, Baltimore Ravens

When it comes to our “Risers” list, we typically look at players who are either available or undervalued. The Ravens’ run game is clearly dominated by Lamar Jackson, but the role of de facto running back seemingly is always up for grabs. Mark Ingram. Gus Edwards. Dobbins. They all got their shot. Latavius Murray was the odds-on choice to be the lead dog, but, through two games, Murray has 19 carries for 64 yards (3.4 a pop with a long of eight). Williams has 22 carries for 142 yards (6.5 per tote with a run of 20 or more in each game). The reason the mantle gets passed in this offense is that the Ravens go with the hot hand and, unless he gets injured, that’s going to be Williams moving forward.

TE Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Two weeks through the season and the leading scorer in the NFL is Tommy Boy’s running buddy Gronk. He has scored four touchdowns in two games – all in the red zone. When Tom Brady gets near the goal line, guys like Mike Evans get the shine. But at the outer and middle edge of the red zone is when Gronk and their shorthand history with each other comes into play. If you own Gronk, his value will never be higher. There’s one ball in Tampa Bay and Brady has to spread it around. If Gronk stays healthy – a really big “if” – he can put himself back in the 2021 TE Mount Rushmore conversation with Kelce, Waller and Kittle. In tight end-mandatory leagues, he’s been a godsend. You can get “Kelce-style” return in a trade right now for one reason – Gronk has earned that respect.

WR Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals

Quick quiz for you. Who leads the Cardinals in targets with 13? Who leads them in receptions with 11? Who leads them in yards with 182? The answer to all of those is Moore – a second-round rookie slot speedster who has quickly earned not only the confidence of Kyler Murray but also of the coaching staff. In most leagues, he is considered a fourth receiver. That’s A.J. Green. He’s making a case that Christian Kirk is the No. 3 guy and he and DeAndre Hopkins are 1-2. He’s going to make more believers.

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QB Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders

Carr’s name never gets mentioned in the discussion of elite quarterbacks, but those who have had him as a backup or a QB1b in a tandem system know better – at least in fantasy terms. The Raiders aren’t shy about passing. Everyone knows that. But, they’re 2-0 in large part because Carr has thrown for 817 yards and four touchdowns. Keep in mind, these wins weren’t against the Jaguars and Texans. These were the Ravens and Steelers. If he is somehow still in a rotation, that has to stop, and he needs to be No. 1 and No. 1a, at worst.

WR Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Williams is no stranger to fantasy owners. He has been the Keenan McCardell of his era. He’s good for five or six passes for 60 or 70 yards and the occasional TD when pressed into a lineup. Last year in the first season paired with Justin Herbert, he was almost forgotten – catching 48 passes for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Those weren’t awful numbers, but they didn’t keep him in a fantasy lineup. In his first two games, Williams has 15 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns – about 30 percent of his 2020 numbers. Herbert has a new running buddy who requires acknowledgement.

Fantasy football fallers

RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Numbers speak volumes in the NFL. Numbers scream volumes in fantasy football. Christian McCaffrey and Barkley were No. 1 and 2 picks in most fantasy drafts in 2020. Both went down early to significant injuries. McCaffrey has reclaimed his spot. Barkley? Not so much. Two games into his Saquon 2.0 version, he has 23 carries for 83 yards, three catches for 13 yards and 39 fewer rushing yards than his quarterback. Seeing as 41 of Saquon’s 83 rushing yards came on one play, this is a time for legitimate concern and quiet reflection. How many more dud weeks can you take if you’re counting on Barkley?

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger is glacial, so rushing points are a happy accident. If you’re playing Big Ben, it’s for passing production. Two games in, that translates to 483 yards and two touchdowns – numbers that won’t win weekly head-to-head matchups against just about anybody. He’s obviously part of a two-QB plan for those who have him on their rosters, but, against both the Bills and Raiders – admittedly two quality teams – he hasn’t earned a spot in a lineup where he is the QB1b. Toss in news of a recent left pectoral injury, and he’s QB2 unarguably and cut-bait for the twitchy.

WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

In many circles, Robinson was viewed as a WR1 if you were in a 12-player league – 10-player in some. The obvious question was with which quarterback is he going to be that guy? Through two games with both QBs, he has eight catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. He’s transformed from a WR1 to an opponent-based play. Who would have seen this coming? Everyone? Targeted 15 times. All contested. Some double-contested. Until someone else emerges as a legitimate threat, he keeps getting doubled.

TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

There was a time when, in tight end-mandatory leagues, if you had Ertz, you were talking tough. Now, you’re duck-and-cover. On a modest Eagles offense, he is seventh in targets and seventh in receptions. There was a time that those were league totals, not team totals. Four targets in two games. Smells like a draft night gamble turned waiver wire if you want him. You can have him.

RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Taylor was a guy that, if you were in auctions, bidding wars at times got a little out of hand. He was a hill to die on for some auctioneers. It hasn’t been a lack of opportunities with 32 carries for 107 yards and no TDs. And that was with seven in the box. Now there should be nine – eight at a minimum. Not ideal with a QB with two bad ankles.