2022 fantasy football – Page 19

Fantasy football injury outlook: New York Giants wide receivers

Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard injury updates for fantasy football purposes.

The 2021 New York Giants were nothing short of a total disaster for fantasy football purposes, and a large reason was the revolving door at wide receiver, thanks to a bloodthirsty injury bug.

Two of the prominent losses down the stretch were rookie first-rounder Kadarius Toney and veteran slot man Sterling Shepard. The former missed seven of the final eight contests with various ailments and underwent arthroscopic knee surgery following the season. The latter tore an Achilles tendon in Week 15 and remains in the rehab phase. As of June 2, Shepard told CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson he is running again but has no timetable for his full-fledged return.

The 2022 Giants are expected to emphasize Toney in the offensive plans under new head coach Brian Daboll, the former play-caller for the Buffalo Bills. Shepard actually could find himself in position to lose his job by way of an injury, especially if the second-year receiver stands out in training camp. In Year 7, despite this being a new system, Shepard’s mental reps will likely be enough to get a grasp on the offense, but rust could be a serious concern well into the regular season.

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Most players are physically healthy from an Achilles tear nine months post-surgery and mentally trusting the repair by a year. Nine months would put Shepard back into action within the first few weeks of the season, but he may not be himself until closer to the final month of it.

Toney’s current recovery is more straightforward. He had a knee scope, presumably to clean up loose bodies, and the recovery time is usually in the weeks and not months timeline.

Durability is a major factor to weigh when considering him in 2022 fantasy drafts. In addition to the final two weeks he missed, Toney sat out four games in his rookie season with a quad strain. Toney also didn’t go in Week 7 because of an ankle injury, and he missed three contests with a moderately strained oblique muscle. To compound the litany of injuries, the former Florida Gator was absent for most of training camp and the preseason with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. In a sense, this will be his rookie season in part.

Fantasy football outlook

Shepard broke through as a rookie and scored eight times on 65 receptions in 2016. He has 13 touchdowns over 284 grabs since, and his career high in yardage is just 876. In other words, he’s a role player and not the game-changing weapon that Toney offers.

Quarterback Daniel Jones‘ on-field maturation is the driving force behind all things New York passing success, and if any coach can coax it out of him, Daboll figures to be the man for the job.

Currently, gamers are opting for Toney with an early selection in Round 11, on average, as the 52nd receiver drafted. That placement presents an opportunity for profit, but it’s obviously not without risk given the exhausting list of 2021 injuries he suffered. It becomes even more uncertain after New York’s second-round investment in slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. Toney can man the outside better, though, and the rookie should be considered more of an insurance selection by the club and a flier for fantasy purposes.

The team’s No. 1 receiver, Kenny Golladay, has injury issues of his own, and another lengthy absence could thrust Toney into the top role, giving him even more upside.

Shepard’s ADP is Pick 14:10 in PPR, and he’s WR70, on average. At this stage of his lackluster career, coupling Toney’s likely ascension with Shepard’s rehab situation, the veteran is no more than a late-round depth.

So long as Toney’s recovery goes as planned with a return for training camp, he’s the guy to own between these two.

Will Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks offer fantasy football value?

Could fantasy owners be overlooking value among Seattle quarterbacks?

For the past decade, the Seattle Seahawks have been led by the combination of head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson. That changed this offseason when the Seahawks flipped Wilson to the Denver Broncos in exchange for QB Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, defensive end Shelby Harris, and five draft picks, including two first-rounders.

That move announced Seattle’s decision to start rebuilding their roster after winning just one playoff game over the last five years. There were rumors that more moves could be in the offing, most notably trading away one (or both) of wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, though as of now the tandem remains on roster and appears likely to remain there, at least to start the 2022 season.

Regardless of who lines up on the outside, it’d be surprising to see the Seahawks not lean into their long-preferred formula of featuring a ground game that includes running backs Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Walker III, and possibly Chris Carson (neck), though a neck injury clouds his future.

With Wilson gone, Lock and veteran Geno Smith are set to compete for the starting job in the Emerald City. The team has had a lot of positive things to say about Lock, and their decision not to target a quarterback in the draft, even as several of the better prospects tumbled into the middle rounds, suggests there’s more than just bluster there. Smith went 1-2 as a starter when Wilson was hurt last season, but his two losses were by a combined six points, so the team knows it can be competitive with him.

Drew Lock

A second-round pick of Denver in 2019, Lock went 8-13 in 21 starts, most of which came in 2020. He had his moments, passing for four TDs against the Carolina Panthers, and throwing a touchdown pass on the final play to upend the Los Angeles Chargers, but those were overshadowed by the type of poor decision-making that saw him tie for the NFL lead in interceptions (15) in 2020 despite finishing 20th in attempts. It was painfully obvious that the Broncos coaching staff had lost faith in Lock by last season, electing to play a visibly injured Teddy Bridgewater ahead of him.

While the results have been lacking, Lock isn’t without some talent. He has good size, a strong arm, and underrated athleticism that could allow him to supplement the ground game if Seattle decides it wants to incorporate read options or designed runs.

There’s considerable talent at the skill positions as well, though it’s not like he’s coming over from a talent-strapped squad in Denver that included WRs Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Entering Year 4, Lock needs to prove he can be a starter in the NFL, and perhaps a change of scenery is what he needs.

Geno Smith

Per Carroll, Smith has a leg up for the No. 1 job by virtue of having spent the last year in the team’s system, and the veteran has reportedly been splitting first-team reps with Lock in Smith’s second season with Seattle. That’s all well and good for June, but you must believe the team wants Lock to win the job considering how limited we know Smith to be after bouncing around the NFL since 2013.

While Smith has 34 career starts, 30 of them came in his first two seasons, meaning he’s made just four in seven years since. He’s a game manager, but he won’t lose many games for you, and that carries some value in the NFL.

Fantasy football outlook

There’s only intrigue here if Lock wins the job. If Smith is the starter, you can bank on a steady diet of handoffs and short throws where ball security is the top priority.

If it’s Lock, he at least carries a mix of athleticism and arm strength that could potentially generate some fantasy value — his ceiling might be as a Wish.com version of Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts.

Unless you’re bullish on Lock, however, it’s safe to leave him as a watch-list candidate. In best-ball formats, Lock is worth a QB3 selection behind two safe options or No. 4 spot otherwise.

Assessing fantasy football’s top risk-reward targets

Recognizing risk is necessary in making sure the juice is worth squeeze.

Fantasy football gamers are tasked with making decisions at every juncture of their seasons. Whether it be the draft, setting lineups, making trades or waiver claims … you name it, there is a choice to be made. Some of them are mundane, and others will drastically alter the course of your team’s fortunes.

One way to help mitigate the chance of a disastrous showing is to understand the amount of risk being assumed. Since the foundation of any good fantasy roster is laid during the draft, we’ll focus our attention on which players offer the most potential in the face of unmistakable risk. You’ll also read about guys with greater risk than reward, despite being highly ranked or having an early average draft placement.

Fantasy football: Philadelphia Eagles running back breakdown

Will any of Philly’s running backs fly high in 2022?

One would be hard-pressed to come up with a team that went through more of a philosophical about-face in 2021 than the Philadelphia Eagles. Through the first seven games, Philly’s game plan seemed to be to put as much on Jalen Hurts’ right arm as possible. To that end, Hurts averaged 35 passing attempts per game over the first seven as the Eagles opened the year 2-5.

After that, the focus shifted 180 degrees to the ground game as Hurts averaged just 24 passes per outing across his final eight with Philadelphia posting a 6-2 mark — Gardner Minshew made two starts down the stretch as well, including a meaningless Week 18 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. When the dust settled, the Eagles had rushed for an NFL-leading 2,715 yards despite not having anyone reach 800 yards on the ground (Hurts led the club with 784 yards and 10 TDs).

Three of the top four backs from last year return; Jordan Howard (86-406-1 in seven games) remains a free agent and appears unlikely to be re-signed, though obviously preseason injuries could change that math in a hurry.

Miles Sanders

In terms of talent, Sanders is the standard-bearer. He has good speed and is a quality receiver out of the backfield, making him one of the focal points of the offense … when healthy. Durability has been a real issue in his young career, however, missing nine games combined over the past two years. In 2020 he suffered a pair of knee sprains, and last season he dealt with a sprained ankle for months and then broke his hand.

Sanders’ struggles to remain on the field are doubtless a big part of the reason that Philly’s most talented back has rarely been used like a featured player. In 24 games over the last two seasons, Sanders has reached the 20-touch plateau just four times. He’s a little like Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones in that way, though Jones consistently reaches the high teens while Sanders had six games with fewer than a dozen opportunities last year. It’s hard to consistently produce when you’re not getting the ball.

Kenneth Gainwell

As a rookie last season, Gainwell logged 101 combined touches for 544 yards and six touchdowns, though his role really dried up over the season’s final two-plus months — only twice during that stretch did he log more than five touches in a game, and one of those was that glorified exhibition in Week 18.

The thinking here is that a full year in the system, combined with his strong receiving skills, should allow him to function as the top passing-down back. Whether he has the size (5-foot-9, 200 pounds) to see an expanded role in case of injury is Sanders is debatable.

Boston Scott

Scott is a stocky back (5-foot-6, 203 pounds) who has shown the ability to find the end zone in his career (13 career TDs on 228 carries) due to his athleticism and deceptive power. He’s a solid receiver as well, though perhaps not on the same level as Sanders or Gainwell.

Scott saw double-digit carries in six of his final seven games last year and projects as the more likely backup in case Sanders gets hurt. He should battle it out with Gainwell for the No. 2 job during training camp.

Fantasy football takeaway

When factoring in an intended increase in passing volume following the addition of wide receiver A.J. Brown, along with potential to lose ground scores to Hurts, this backfield may be more detrimental than beneficial to fantasy lineups many weeks.

Having three backs with similar skill sets makes them interchangeable, which in turn makes it tough to determine the roles they’ll fill — there is currently no one of Howard’s bruising disposition on the depth chart, but someone is like to pick up his nearly 90 touches.

Sanders has RB2 upside, but his low usage and injury history make him better suited as an RB3. Gainwell seems to have a higher weekly ceiling than Scott, but neither player is worth more than late-round consideration as roster depth.

Fantasy football injury outlook: RB James White, New England Patriots

Will James White rebound after missing nearly the entire 2021 season?

For most of his eight seasons in the NFL, New England Patriots running back James White’s primary role was as a reliable checkdown option for current Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. His best years came during Brady’s final two seasons in New England, when the receiving corps was thinned by poor drafting, with White averaging 1,042 total yards and nine touchdowns in 2018-19 while hauling in a combined 159 passes. In his lone full season without Brady, White totaled 496 yards and three touchdowns.

White seemed like he could be in line for a renaissance last year with then-rookie Mac Jones under center and leading a very conservative offensive approach. Those hopes came crashing down when the University of Wisconsin product suffered a hip subluxation in Week 3 that ultimately led to surgery and kept the veteran from returning to action in 2021. He finished the year with just 132 yards and a score.

At 30, White is on the older side of the ledger for NFL running backs. Of course, it’s not always the years, it’s the miles, and White has more career receptions (381) than carries (319), meaning he hasn’t taken the type of physical pounding many backs have endured after eight seasons. Reports out of minicamp have classified White as a limited participant with the veteran stating that he has “a little while to go” before he’s sufficiently rehabbed and ready to roll.

White’s durability has been good across his career, but he’s coming off a major injury that he feared might have been career-ending, so he’ll need to be monitored come late July. Along those same lines, don’t read too much into the two-year, $5 million contract he signed to return to New England. Only $500,000 is guaranteed, and he’ll need to compete with rookies Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, as well as J.J. Taylor, for spots behind roster locks Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson.

Fantasy football outlook

White is a Bill Belichick guy, so if he looks like his old self chances are there will be a spot for him. In that scenario he’d be the designated passing-down back while Harris and Stevenson handle the early downs.

His sure hands and skills in the open field should make an attractive option for Jones on a team that has struggled for years to identify and cultivate talent at receiver. Even still, White would be a stretch as a draft-day target outside of deep PPR formats. Think of him as an RB5 or even a No. 6 and nothing more.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Joe Burrow: Which QB should you be drafting?

Is the reigning, back-to-back MVP ready to take a back seat to the third-year pro?

Comparing Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow prior to the 2021 season would have seemed like a lopsided exercise in futility. But, Burrow led the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl to make the conversation much more realistic, despite Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers posting a league-best 39 wins over the past three seasons.

So, who has the better 2022 fantasy prospects? Let’s look at their pros and cons.

Aaron Rodgers

Pros

Not just a four-time MVP winner, but he has won the last two (2020, 2021)
He has thrown 85 touchdown passes the last two seasons – the most in any two-year stretch of his career.
Rodgers is incredible at protecting the ball and not throwing ill-advised passes. Over the last four seasons, he has thrown 2,223 passes and just 15 interceptions – an average of one pick per every 148 passes.
While not much of a rusher in fantasy terms, he has scored six rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons – the most in any two-year span in the last decade.

Cons

The trade of Davante Adams takes away his unquestioned top target. Over the last four seasons (57 contests), Adams was targeted 614 times – almost 11 times a game.
Not only did Rodgers lose Adams as his primary weapon, the Packers also allowed Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown to walk in free agency – two players who had a long history learning with Rodgers.
Entering his age-39 season in a young man’s game
He hasn’t been the developer of young wide receivers at nearly the same rate as his predecessor Brett Favre. Rodgers is notorious for not trusting rookies.

Credit: Sam Greene/Cincinnati Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK

Joe Burrow

Pros

Has made incredible progress in just two NFL seasons, making his first Super Bowl appearance in just his second season. His success demonstrates the potential for another significant jump in his maturation process. Still learning the game, as he increases his quarterback IQ, the game will slow down for him.
He has three of the most dynamic young receivers in the league with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
The Bengals have a balanced offensive attack and can run Joe Mixon 20 times per game to take the pressure off Burrow to be the focus of the offense at all times.
Cincinnati upgraded its offensive line with the additions of center Ted Karras, right guard Alex Cappa and right tackle La’el Collins.
Displayed good consistency last season, completing more than 70 percent of his passes has averaged 39 pass attempts a game in his career. With that many attempts consistently, good things will happen.

Cons

Whether it was the fault of his offensive line or holding the ball too long, Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times. He has been sacked 83 times in 26 NFL career starts.
He has already suffered one significant injury, and until the on-paper upgrades along the line show it on the field, Burrow will continue to be a quarterback fantasy owners have to fear will miss time due to injury.
He threw 14 interceptions last season, just one fewer than Rodgers has thrown in the last four years combined.
Although he didn’t show too many ill-effects from the significant leg injury he suffered in 2020, his rushing attempts bottomed out. As a rookie, he averaged 3.7 rushing attempts a game. In 2021, he dropped to 2.5 attempts. His rushing yards also took a hit, dipping from 14.2 yards a game to 7.4 yards a game.

Fantasy football outlook

Rodgers (ADP 6:06) is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he has the weakest supporting cast of receivers at any point during his career. Without his security blanket in Adams, he has to count on lesser receivers to get the job done.

Burrow (ADP 5:10), on the other hand, has young dynamic weapons who are only getting better with time. Because of that, if he stays healthy, Joe Burrow is the better fantasy quarterback option in 2022.

Fantasy football outlook: Baltimore Ravens running backs

What will this backfield offer after a catastrophic 2021 season?

In a span of less than three weeks last preseason, the Baltimore Ravens lost running backs J.K. Dobbins, Justice Hill, and Gus Edwards to leg injuries — Dobbins and Edwards suffered torn ACLs, whereas Hill ruptured his Achilles.

With their depth chart in shambles, the team wound up with veterans Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray as the top options. Neither player is set to return in 2022, however, leaving the Ravens without a single back who carried the ball for the team last season. With that in mind, it’s a good time to preview what Baltimore’s backfield will look like this year.

J.K. Dobbins

Prior to his injury, Dobbins was a popular breakout candidate after he averaged a whopping 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie to go along with nine TDs on just 134 carries. He’s a compact, powerful runner who can break tackles while still possessing elusiveness in the open field. Dobbins is easily the most talented of Baltimore’s options and should fill the primary role.

There’s a caveat within that designation, though, as the Ravens have long been a proponent of the committee approach. In fact, over the past nine seasons there have been only two Baltimore backs to top 1,000 yards in a season: Mark Ingram (1,018 in 2019) and Justin Forsett (1,266 in 2014). Couple that with Dobbins’ perceived limitations as a pass catcher, and it’d be smart to temper any expectations of the Ohio State alum posting RB1 numbers.

Gus Edwards

Steady as she goes has been the mantra for Edwards, who has gained between 710 and 725 yards rushing in each of his three NFL seasons while averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry. Checking in at 6-foot-1, 238 pounds, Edwards is a big back, but with only 10 career touchdowns in 414 carries. He has never shown a penchant for goal-line work; that could certainly be a byproduct of his height making him too large of a target for consistent short-area usage.

Edwards has yet to show anything as a receiver, either, managing just 18 career receptions. Take that with the lack of scores, and suddenly the fifth-year pro profiles as a middle-of-the-field, early-down back, which limits his upside. Assuming health, Edwards can safely be penciled in as the complementary option to Dobbins.

Mike Davis

Signed in May, Davis is a true journeyman, having played for five NFL clubs in his seven seasons. While he offers little in the way of explosiveness — something his career average of 3.7 YPC can attest to — the veteran is a capable receiver and typically reliable ball carrier with six career fumbles over his 719 total touches, though four of them came in 2021. He’s cut from the same well-worn cloth as Freeman and Murray from last season.

Justice Hill/Tyler Badie

A fourth-round pick in 2019, Hill saw limited opportunities in his first two seasons and then watched his chance for extended work dashed last year by the Achilles injury. He’s more reliable than explosive, and entering the final year of his rookie deal he’ll need to fend off Tyler Badie, who the Ravens snagged in the sixth round of this year’s draft. Badie runs hard and is a capable receiving threat, which might give him a leg up in the battle for a roster spot.

Fantasy football takeaway

If everyone can stay healthy, Dobbins and Edwards should carry the load. Their lone season together in 2020 saw Edwards (144) get more carries than the then-rookie Dobbins (134) while Ingram (72) was also involved.

This season look for the latter’s touches to be redistributed among the top two backs with whoever emerges among Davis, Hill and Badie getting spot duty. Dobbins has borderline top-20 appeal, and Edwards is a solid RB5 depth type. The rest can be bypassed entirely.

Ranking second-year quarterbacks most likely to break out

Breaking down the fantasy football outlooks for second-year passers.

While 2022 was a noteworthy exception, a typical NFL draft is dotted with quarterbacks at the top who are given the “can’t miss” tag. In 2021, there were more than usual. The top three picks went quarterback, and two more joined in over the next 12 picks.

To the surprise of many, it wasn’t Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Justin Fields who made the biggest rookie splash. It was Mac Jones and Davis Mills who led the QB Class of 2021.

Given the quick ascent of 2020 rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert (and, to a lesser extent, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts), the timetable for a young franchise quarterback to produce is getting shorter.

We take a deep dive on the six quarterbacks in question and their selling points to make a jump in their fantasy value in Year 2.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence was the first overall pick in 2021 and widely hailed as the best quarterback to come to the NFL since Andrew Luck. Surrounded by a brutal supporting cast and mired by a coaching disaster, he threw just 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.

After throwing seven interceptions in his first three games, he didn’t throw a pick in nine of the final 14.
He completed just 59.6 percent of his passes, but in his last three games, Lawrence completed 66 of 98 passes (67.3 percent).
He showed some ability as a scrambler, rushing five or more times in eight games and finishing second on the team with 334 rushing yards.
Jacksonville gave him more explosive weapons to work with this offseason, adding speedy wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to join Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, as well as adding TE Evan Engram.
The Jaguars addressed its porous offensive line, adding veteran guard Brandon Scherff and drafting center Luke Fortner (third round).

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Wilson came to the NFL to a relatively barren cupboard of offensive playmakers. As the season progressed, he became a better game manager after taking too many risks early. He learned quickly the wide-open style at BYU doesn’t necessarily translate to the NFL.

After throwing 11 interceptions in his first eight games, he had none in his final five starts.
He showed some ability as a situational runner, scoring four rushing touchdowns in his final seven games.
Wilson possesses all the intangibles a quarterback needs, including accuracy, decision-making, and the ability to make plays when they break down.
The Jets were ravaged by WR injuries last season with free agent signee Corey Davis missing eight games and Elijah Moore missing six. If the top receivers are healthy, Wilson’s numbers will climb.
New York invested a first-round draft pick on Garrett Wilson, a tremendous route runner who can play inside or outside and provides another weapon.

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers made the bold climb to No. 3 in the 2021 draft for Lance, who made just 17 starts at North Dakota State. He’s expected to be the starter, but if Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) isn’t traded, there will be a legitimate competition on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

Lance is the biggest unknown among the quarterbacks at the top of the Class of 2021.
The best pure athlete of the group with a combination of size, arm strength and speed
Has the best supporting cast of any of these six QBs
He threw five touchdowns on just 71 passes and in his two starts ran 24 times for 120 yards.
Lance plays in an offense that runs the ball effectively and takes the pressure off the quarterback more than most offenses.
Two significant changes to the interior offensive line could become a negative factor

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Fields was supposed to be given time to learn before replacing Andy Dalton. Dalton was injured in Week 2 and Fields was thrown into the fire. He showed incredible skill throwing on the run but had far too many disastrous throws that often negated his positives.

In his first three starts, he threw 57 passes, completed 29 with one touchdown. In his last two starts, he threw 72 passes, completed 44 with three TDs.
He averaged almost six yards per rushing attempt and posted 103 rushing yards against San Francisco and 74 against Green Bay.
Gets a revamped receiver corps, including Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Tajae Sharpe and Dante Pettis to go with Darnell Mooney. This group will learn and grow together under a first-year head coach (Matt Eberflus) as well as a rookie offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy (modified West Coast).
He has no competition … unless you consider journeyman Trevor Siemian competition.
He plays in what many consider the weakest top-to-bottom division in the NFC.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

Jones was the fourth quarterback taken, but when Cam Newton was cut after the preseason, it was Jones’ team. A year into the Patriots system, Bill Belichick has his protege ready to take his next step.

Led all rookie quarterbacks with 3,801 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, a 67.6 completion percentage, and a 92.5 passer rating
He completed 70 percent or more of his passes in nine games.
He’s never been a runner, so his focus on improving his game is solely on passing.
He has all of his primary receivers back from last year, plus James White returning from a season-ending hip injury and DeVante Parker entering as a new weapon.
The Patriots coaching staff has a penchant for calling plays that keep a quarterback safe and not taking unnecessary risks. There’s no clear offensive play-caller with Josh McDaniels now the head coach in Vegas, but the system isn’t expected to change much, if at all.

Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Davis was intended to be the No. 3 guy in Houston, but with Deshaun Watson out and Tyrod Taylor hurt, he started 11 games, throwing for 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and passer rating of 88.5.

He has no competition with Watson and Taylor gone.
In his first nine games (seven starts), he had eight touchdowns and four interceptions. In his last four starts, he produced eight touchdowns vs. two interceptions.
Mills logged four 300-yard passing games – most among the 2021 class.
Houston has what could be the worst run game in the league and a leaky, which forces passing.
The Texans have cobbled some receiver depth with Brandin Cooks, Chris Conley, Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Moore and rookie John Metchie III.

Fantasy football outlook

There isn’t a player in this group who is likely to ascend to QB1 status (a top 12 fantasy player), but they’re all in the QB2 range with varied levels of upside.

Although he likely has the lowest ceiling, right now Jones has the highest floor and should have the top ranking.
Fields checks in at No. 2 because of the schedule he faces and lack of competition in Chicago. He will need to get the most of his weaponry, however, and is the riskiest of the top three.
The addition of speed receivers moves Lawrence up to No. 3 but not to the top spot yet.
Wilson is No. 4, because the Jets are still a year away from having an offense that clicks.
Lance slips in at No. 5 because, like Herbert and Burrow, comes to a team with offensive weapons, but needs Jimmy G gone to solidify his value.
Davis (again) is No. 6, but by season’s end he may be the most impressive (again).

It wouldn’t be a total surprise if Lance finishes as the No. 1 of this group, nor would it be a shocker if Lawrence ended up there, either. Both need a few breaks to go their respective ways before we’re comfortable making such a prediction. We’ll keep tabs on these situations as training camp provides more clarity on some of the unsettled scenarios.

Can fantasy footballers find value in the Atlanta Falcons’ backfield?

Breaking down the scenarios of Atlanta’s running back stable.

When the Atlanta Falcons decided to pull the trigger on trading longtime franchise quarterback Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts this offseason, they ushered in a full reboot that was probably at least two years overdue.

During his 14 years in Atlanta, Ryan averaged 572 passes per season and threw 560 times last year in this system. Don’t expect newcomers Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder to approach last year’s number in 2022 — during his three seasons as the starter with the Tennessee Titans, Mariota averaged 412.

With far less experience at quarterback, the expectation is that the Falcons will lean more heavily on the run, though a glance at their depth chart doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in that approach. While they could always add a free agent at some point, this is what the Falcons are working with for now.

Cordarrelle Patterson

Inked to a one-year, $3 million contract in free agency before the 2021 season, Patterson ended up on the short list for best bargain signing in all of football. The one-time first-round pick of the Minnesota Vikings never lived up his draft station as a receiver and had settled into more of a part-time gadget role while bouncing around the league. To the immense credit of offensive coordinator Dave Ragone, the Falcons decided to feature Patterson out of the backfield, where he responded with 1,166 total yards and 11 TDs, emerging as their top offensive playmaker.

There are still some questions regarding Patterson, however, who at age 31 is already past the “sell by” date of most backs. While he clearly hasn’t taken anywhere near the long-term wear and tear of full-time RBs, he still has 143 career games under his belt.

Adjustments will have to be made with Ryan gone as the veteran quarterback commanded a level of respect from secondaries that neither Mariota nor Ridder will. It’s also worth noting that even though Patterson sits atop the depth chart, he’s no workhorse, and his fantasy value will be tied to his ability to continue to maximize his touches.

Damien Williams

Williams will be playing for his fourth team in five years, which is a pretty accurate barometer of his talent level. The 30-year-old has topped 50 carries in a season just once (111-498-5 with KC in 2020) but carries a respectable 4.2 yards-per-attempt average across his career.

Williams also is a capable receiver out of the backfield, and he should at least contribute on passing downs. He’s likely to stick as veteran depth, though the team would be thrilled if he operated in the same kind of tertiary role he’s filled throughout most of his time in the NFL.

Tyler Allgeier

A fifth-round pick without a lot of fanfare, Allgeier is quietly stepping into a potentially productive situation with the Falcons. At 5-foot-11, 224 pounds, the BYU product has good size and was heavily utilized over the last two years with the Cougars, where he rushed for 2,731 yards and 36 TDs.

He lacks big-play speed to be sure and projects more as someone that grinds down the opposition with body punches than dazzling them with haymakers. The rookie has decent hands, but in all likelihood, his primary role profiles as a two-down back and being an occasional threat around the goal line.

Fantasy football outlook

While there are no sure things in Atlanta’s backfield, Patterson is the one to own. Sure, there are some legitimate questions given his “breakout” season came in Year 9, but on a team short on playmakers, Patterson figures to be a focal point offensively. That gives him solid RB3 appeal.

Unless injuries press him into a larger-than-expected role, Williams can remain on waivers. Although he may sit third on the depth chart now, Allgeier is the better flier option. There’s an outside chance for a scenario that puts Allgeier in the early-down role, with Patterson serving more as a the change-up and/or third-down back. Allgeier is a workhorse in a way that neither Williams nor Patterson are capable of being, and that alone gives him late-round potential.

Regardless of which guy ends up seeing the bulk of the touches in the red zone, both quarterback options are fond of rushing the rock, and that devalues the overall fantasy upside from this backfield.

Worth the risk? The Deshaun Watson outlook

Disciplinary uncertainty creates more questions than answers.

One of the ongoing questions heading into the “slow period” of the NFL – between OTAs and the start of training camps in late July – is the ongoing saga of Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has made headlines off the field for the last 14 months.

Watson sat out the entire 2021 season, which was supposed to be the first year of four-year, $160 million extension he signed with the Houston Texans. An avalanche of civil lawsuits brought against him – most by massage therapists – claiming sexual assault or misconduct. A 23rd woman joined the lawsuit against Watson at the end of May, and No. 24 is reportedly expected to file come Monday.

However, when two grand juries failed to bring back a criminal indictment, the Texans saw an opportunity to trade their besieged signal-caller, and the Browns jumped at the opportunity to acquire a franchise quarterback better than Baker Mayfield.

Houston landed three first-round picks, a third-rounder in 2023, and a fourth-rounder in 2024 in exchange for Watson. If that investment by the Browns wasn’t enough, the team immediately announced that it tore up Watson’s contract with the Texans and replaced it with a five-year, $230 million deal with every dollar guaranteed.

Both sides of this strange, unsettling saga are unprecedented. On the football side of things, fully guaranteeing contracts has rarely been something NFL franchise do willingly. Nobody has ever committed this much in terms of guaranteed money – Watson’s guarantee was $80 million more than the previous high (Buffalo QB Josh Allen). It’s a field-tilter for quarterback salaries and guarantees that could set a standard many owners will look to avoid.

The other precedent-setting issue facing the NFL is the length of Watson’s anticipated suspension. Despite sitting out all of last season, Watson not subject to league discipline. Comparisons have been made to a 2010 suspension of Ben Roethlisberger, accused of sexually assaulting a 20-year-old Georgia college student at a nightclub. What made his six-game suspension (reduced to four games after Roethlisberger complied with numerous league-imposed stipulations) is that there were no criminal charges filed against him. Prior to that, the league waited until the legal process was completed before handing out its own punishment. Since Roethlisberger’s case, the NFL has suspended numerous players without criminal charges being filed.

What makes this case new to the NFL is Watson having been accused by 24 different women who make the same basic claim – just to varying degrees of misconduct. The NFL’s enforcement arm has a difficult decision to make after its own independent investigation. The league is still struggling with accusations of collusion against Colin Kaepernick and the offseason revelations in a lawsuit brought by Brian Flores.

What sort of punishment do claims made by 24 different women warrant? Major League Baseball, typically the last pro sport to be proactive, recently doubled the established suspension limit of major sports by banning Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer for more than two years for allegations of sexual impropriety that also didn’t result in criminal charges.

The Browns have been taken off a lot of betting websites for wagers on the odds for Cleveland to win the AFC North, the AFC, and the Super Bowl, because everyone is waiting for the NFL to weigh on whether Watson will be suspended. It is expected that he will be, but the duration is anyone’s guess.

The suspension likely won’t be less than four games. Is six a possibility? Eight? Another full season?

All of those options are likely on the table. The uncertainty may be the reason the Browns didn’t accept a low-ball trade offer for Mayfield on draft weekend. Mayfield clearly isn’t Cleveland’s first choice – that was made painfully obvious – but he is the guy who has been the starter in Cleveland the last three years. Perhaps the fear of getting the worst-case scenario suspension for Watson is why Mayfield is still under contract with the Browns. Cleveland added veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett in free agency a day after the Watson trade news broke, likely believing Mayfield wouldn’t be this difficult to trade away.

Fantasy football outlook

Watson’s fantasy football value for 2022 will be determined once the NFL weighs in on the matter and hands down its punishment.

Whatever the NFL decides, it is certain to face criticism for not handing down a stiff enough punishment given the gravity and sheer volume of the allegations. Until the league office delivers its judgment, the fate of the 2022 Browns will continue to remain in limbo.

Should Watson even be on your radar if you’re forced to draft prior to whenever that info is known? It depends upon a number of factors, such as scoring rules, league size, draft tendencies, and more, but the easiest way to frame it is as follows: Gamble on Watson only after about Round 11, and only if you have an established starter in case he winds up missing serious time. He has gone, on average, anywhere from Round 9 to 14 in drafts we’ve been apart of so far.

We’ll definitely provide more clarity upon the league’s ruling. What we know for sure is Watson enters a run-heavy offense with a so-so cast of aerial targets. He has excelled with worse at receiver, but there’s arguably more downside than potential for a strong season, regardless of how much time he may miss.