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Alexander Mattison is the clear choice to top this list of running back handcuffs to target in fantasy football.
There are some NFL backfields with two fantasy-relevant running backs who have standalone value in fantasy football even if both RBs stay healthy.
And there are other backfields that feature a backup who doesn’t offer much standalone value but is still a must-roster player due to the workload he’d assume if the starter went down. That’s a handcuff running back, or an insurance running back, and these are five of the top candidates you should consider this season.
A reshaped Ravens’ RB stable requires a fresh look.
While we looked at the Baltimore Ravens’ backfield earlier in the offseason, enough changes have happened to warrant another peek. With that in mind, let’s dive back in and update the Ravens’ backfield situation as we head into the start of the 2022 campaign.
What will this backfield offer after a catastrophic 2021 season?
In a span of less than three weeks last preseason, the Baltimore Ravens lost running backs J.K. Dobbins, Justice Hill, and Gus Edwards to leg injuries — Dobbins and Edwards suffered torn ACLs, whereas Hill ruptured his Achilles.
With their depth chart in shambles, the team wound up with veterans Devonta Freeman and Latavius Murray as the top options. Neither player is set to return in 2022, however, leaving the Ravens without a single back who carried the ball for the team last season. With that in mind, it’s a good time to preview what Baltimore’s backfield will look like this year.
Prior to his injury, Dobbins was a popular breakout candidate after he averaged a whopping 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie to go along with nine TDs on just 134 carries. He’s a compact, powerful runner who can break tackles while still possessing elusiveness in the open field. Dobbins is easily the most talented of Baltimore’s options and should fill the primary role.
There’s a caveat within that designation, though, as the Ravens have long been a proponent of the committee approach. In fact, over the past nine seasons there have been only two Baltimore backs to top 1,000 yards in a season: Mark Ingram (1,018 in 2019) and Justin Forsett (1,266 in 2014). Couple that with Dobbins’ perceived limitations as a pass catcher, and it’d be smart to temper any expectations of the Ohio State alum posting RB1 numbers.
Steady as she goes has been the mantra for Edwards, who has gained between 710 and 725 yards rushing in each of his three NFL seasons while averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry. Checking in at 6-foot-1, 238 pounds, Edwards is a big back, but with only 10 career touchdowns in 414 carries. He has never shown a penchant for goal-line work; that could certainly be a byproduct of his height making him too large of a target for consistent short-area usage.
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Edwards has yet to show anything as a receiver, either, managing just 18 career receptions. Take that with the lack of scores, and suddenly the fifth-year pro profiles as a middle-of-the-field, early-down back, which limits his upside. Assuming health, Edwards can safely be penciled in as the complementary option to Dobbins.
Signed in May, Davis is a true journeyman, having played for five NFL clubs in his seven seasons. While he offers little in the way of explosiveness — something his career average of 3.7 YPC can attest to — the veteran is a capable receiver and typically reliable ball carrier with six career fumbles over his 719 total touches, though four of them came in 2021. He’s cut from the same well-worn cloth as Freeman and Murray from last season.
A fourth-round pick in 2019, Hill saw limited opportunities in his first two seasons and then watched his chance for extended work dashed last year by the Achilles injury. He’s more reliable than explosive, and entering the final year of his rookie deal he’ll need to fend off Tyler Badie, who the Ravens snagged in the sixth round of this year’s draft. Badie runs hard and is a capable receiving threat, which might give him a leg up in the battle for a roster spot.
If everyone can stay healthy, Dobbins and Edwards should carry the load. Their lone season together in 2020 saw Edwards (144) get more carries than the then-rookie Dobbins (134) while Ingram (72) was also involved.
This season look for the latter’s touches to be redistributed among the top two backs with whoever emerges among Davis, Hill and Badie getting spot duty. Dobbins has borderline top-20 appeal, and Edwards is a solid RB5 depth type. The rest can be bypassed entirely.
Does Davis drastically benefit in fantasy football?
One aspect of the Atlanta Falcons trading Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans that warrants a closer look is the fantasy football impact on running back Mike Davis seeing more work in the passing game.
A year after his breakthrough season as a member of the division-rival Carolina Panthers, the journeyman enters the Atlanta backfield as the primary option.
Does the loss of Jones open up more receiving work for Davis? Absolutely.
But will it make all the difference in his fantasy value for gamers?
The lack of Jones likely will cut both ways, adding more available passes to be distributed and also putting more defenders into the box. For the sake of brevity, his rushing role won’t be in focus today.
Fourth-year wideout Calvin Ridley joined the ranks of WR1 fantasy options last season as Jones missed seven games. In those outings, Ridley’s involvement increased from 9.5 targets to 11.3, or a 32 percent jump, when compared to contests with Jones in the lineup. Naturally, the resultant catches per contest increased, too, going from 5.1 to 7.1. Ridley saw an increase of 2.5 yards per reception without Jones, although his reception-to-touchdown ratio went from a score every 5.1 grabs to just every 17 without Julio in the lineup.
Update: Ridley underwent minor foot surgery and is expected to be fully recovered prior to the start of training camp.
In the offseason, former Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith became the head coach of the Falcons. We have two years of his system designs with the Titans to evaluate for a reasonable expectation of what may be to come. It’s not perfect, but it’s a starting point to illustrate potential. There’s little value in comparing the two teams and year over year other than to look at the positional utilization from Tennessee under Smith. And even that should be taken with a grain of salt.
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We know the system will heavily involve the tight end position (27.8 percent of all 2019-20 targets) and utilize play-action passing to take its shots down the field to the wideouts. Smith also had one of the top rushers in the league at his disposal, and there isn’t a comparable in that sense for this Atlanta backfield. Conversely, Tennessee didn’t have a pass-catching running back to the caliber of Davis.
Given more than quarter of the targets over the past 32 games in Smith’s offense went to the tight end position, and Ridley is the only proven receiver in his Atlanta grouping, it’s fair to expect a similar share of the looks to go toward rookie first-rounder Kyle Pitts after the Jones trade. The elite talent will be Davis’ primary competition for targets.
At receiver, Julio accounted for 34.7 percent of Atlanta’s targets over the past 32 games by the position and 35.3 percent of the receptions, or 9.4 looks and 6.3 grabs per outing. That’s an enormous amount of action to be replaced, but the overall passing volume should decrease a fair amount compared to recent Atlanta offensive displays.
Let’s go through a quick exercise in extrapolation to see how it possibly could impact Davis’ role as a receiving asset. While predicting where all of those targets well end up in 2021 is mostly a crapshoot, there’s an interesting opportunity for Davis to see considerably more than the 4.67 he garnered on a weekly clip in Carolina a year ago. Say he gets a substantial 25 percent bump in looks, we’re at 5.8 grabs a game. That translates to a hearty 98.6 over 17 appearances in 2021.
A fairer estimate is something around 15 percent, because we don’t have real-world comparison from a Smith system, and Ridley has room to exceed Julio’s typical 160 looks as a baseline after seeing 143 in 2020. Such an extrapolation for Davis is still greater than 92 grabs over the new 17-game schedule.
Now, this assumes no one else steps up from the backfield. Qadree Ollison is not much of a receiving back, but rookie Javian Hawkins profiles as a Darren Sproles type and could severely cut into Davis’ target share. Pay extra close attention to Hawkins’ development in training camp.
Otherwise, a formidable share of the looks will end up in the hands of tight end Hayden Hurst. We could see noteworthy strides from WRs Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus. Tajae Sharpe has flashed briefly and knows the Smith offense from their time in Tennessee. Cordarrelle Patterson has shown by now he isn’t not a viable threat to gobble up a ton of looks as a receiver. The remainder of the receiving corps is more or less untested and doesn’t immediately warrant attention, but that could vary with strong showings in camp or a free-agent acquisition.
Unless Hawkins emerges, Davis is poised to challenge for the league-lead in receptions from the running back position.
That said, it won’t be all roses. Due to concerns along the offensive line, potential competition, a spotty history of finding limited success, and added defensive scrutiny, Davis still profiles as a moderately risky RB2 in PPR after the Jones trade.
After an admirable 2020 season in Carolina, veteran RB Mike Davis heads to the Falcons.
New Atlanta Falcons head coach Arthur Smith ran a run-heavy, play-action system in Tennessee with rushing king Derrick Henry powering his way to consecutive yardage crowns over the past two seasons.
In 2021, former Carolina Panthers running back Mike Davis may get a shot at showing what he can do in a similar role, replacing RB Todd Gurley. This marks the fourth team the 28-year-old Davis has played for since entering the league in 2015, and it’s the first time he gets a chance to enter the season as the presumed starter.
While much can change between now and Week 1, Davis has no obvious competition for the bulk of the touches right now, and he enters an offensive system known for generating fantasy football success at his position. In Tennessee last season, Smith’s offense ran 51.8 percent of the time, which was the third-highest rate. The Titans were fourth in 2019 under his guidance. During the same window, Atlanta finished no better than 25th (2020) and was even dead last in 2019.
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The Falcons have invested heavily in the offensive line in recent years, although the results haven’t been reflective of such. The offense lost center Alex Mack to free agency, and a pair of 2019 first-rounders on the right side have yet to fully materialize as being worth the commitment. Right guard Chris Lindstrom came into his own after an injury-marred rookie year, finishing with the fifth-highest ranking among his positional mates in 2020. Right tackle Kaleb McGary began last season much improved but faded down the stretch and saw his overall play slip as the year went along.
Matt Hennessy, a 2020 third-round selection, appears in line to assume Mack’s position, though some recent chatter says the team is still looking at the center market. Furthermore, the depth along the line, especially inside, is barren.
It will be interesting to see is if the Falcons try to make quarterback Matt Ryan fit the offensive designs of Smith more so than adjusting Smith’s playcalling to the nearly 36-year-old’s strengths. Bootlegs and rollouts aren’t exactly tops on the list of what Ryan is know for in his career, but in his defense, he handled Kyle Shanahan’s similar system several years back.
Currently on roster, running backs Ito Smith and Qadree Ollison are the only two with experience. It’s fair to believe Smith is ahead of Ollison and does have more speed to help complement Davis. That said, look for the Falcons to address the backfield in the upcoming NFL draft. There remains a respectable pool of change-of-pace running backs in free agency, too.
Going on the presumption Davis enters as the primary running back, he brings considerable versatility to the offense. A few curiosities arise, though: Why did it take him until his age-27 season and an injury to truly showcase his skills? How will Davis respond as being the top guy right out of the gates? Can the defense allow the offense to run late into contests? Aside from the defense, it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley starring at wide receiver. Then there’s the worry about Smith — is he a great coordinator who’ll stink it up as a head coach?
In 2021, initially there will be offensive line concerns. Last year, however, we saw Davis find considerable success behind a similarly poor front five. ProFootballFocus ranked Carolina’s unit 18th-best and that of Atlanta 21st. If the Falcons can consistently get more from the right side of the line, look out for this being a possible fantasy football steal to come out of free agency.
The former Seattle, San Fran and Carolina back fits what the Falcons will implement on offense, and Davis showed off his hands with 59 receptions a year ago as he filled in for Christian McCaffrey over 12 starts. We had see a few flashes from Davis in past stops, albeit in limited action, and he played a role as Seattle’s third-down back in 2018 (34 receptions).
Since Davis has only two seasons with more than 68 carries, it’s probably unfair to point out his yards-per-carry average was 3.5 or less in those four years. During the two seasons with at least 112 attempts, he was good for 4.6 in ’18 and 3.9 last year. Much of last year’s issues can be attributed to the line and also being rarely able to establish a lead late in games when defenses are worn down.
Davis may be an alluring sleeper-like figure in draft circles. If for no other reason than being a new face in town at a coveted position, fantasy owners will find him intriguing. He probably gets less fanfare in casual leagues, yet some gamers will remember his contributions last year and immediately flock to him, assuming the situation is as good or better — it certainly could be better. Smith has the track record as an offensive mind (experienced with TEs and OL, so he knows blocking), and the weapons around Davis to prevent defenders from automatically keying on him each play.
Then there’s the aspect of this defense … it has to improve, and it should, to a degree. Incoming coordinator Dean Pees has found considerable success in his long NFL career. The personnel components remain suspect, though, and this could be a heavy focus in the NFL draft. Atlanta’s inability to keep points off the scoreboard could be Davis’ undoing on the ground. Through the air, though, he actually stands to benefit from a shaky line and sieve-like defense.
Gamers will be forced to decide if Davis worth the risk of an RB2 investment, provided he doesn’t see serious competition in the meantime, and the rest of the outlook hinges upon expectations for aspects out of his control. Davis will be a valued asset in PPR circles, and he is worthy of a weekly flex play as his floor, if the Falcons remain committed to him.
Checking in on the fantasy football options whose value is rising and falling.
One of the things I believe that has made me consistently successful in fantasy football leagues is that I find a way to avoid teams altogether. This year as I prepared for the one fantasy football draft and one fantasy football auction that mean most to me, my list of teams I wanted nothing to do with under any circumstance was limited to the New York Jets, Washington Football Team and Jacksonville Jaguars. I entered the fray knowing there was no way I was going to end up with anyone on any of those teams. I would take Mecole Hardman before I took Terry McLaurin, D.J. Chark or Jamison Crowder…
That’s me.
Now I’m wondering if I want anyone from the NFC East – and that includes Dallas Cowboys RB Zeke Elliott. Saquon and Dak are gone. The Eagles can’t keep anyone but Carson Wentz healthy (who would have figured that?). As least Dak could post giant fantasy football numbers because his defense stunk. Saquon was the only Giant I wanted and I still want nobody from WFT — which is more in line with WTF.
Through six weeks of the season, the teams of the NFC East are a dumpster fire. They have a combined record of 5-18-1. If you take the games in which they didn’t play each other and one team likely had to win, their record is 2-15-1 outside the division.
This is bad on a scale rarely seen.
The good news? There is none.
The bad news? If things hold up in the NFL and the fantasy football playoffs are held in Weeks 14-16, of the 12 games those four teams will play, only one of them will be against a division opponent (when Dallas is scheduled to play Philly in Week 16). At least if they were playing each other, you could get excited about the inept possibilities.
In the leagues that matter to me, I am fortunately underrepresented by teams from the NFC East. More of you should join me.
Here is the Week 7 Fantasy Market Report:
For most of his short career, Jones has been a player with a lot of talent who never put it all together. In his first two seasons, he never rushed for more than 80 yards in a game. In his last three, he has topped 100 yards in each rushing 60 times for 330 yards and two touchdowns. It’s taken him two-and-half years to live up to being a big deal in Tampa, but he’s finally done it.
His stock took a dive (so did his team) to start the year, but people forget he played the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers in those game – and two were on the road. Once he got past that hurdle, over the last three games, he has topped 300 yards in each – throwing for 994 yards and nine touchdowns. Those are the kind of numbers he was drafted for and the reason he is almost unbenchable.
When Christian McCaffrey went down, seeing as he was the No. 1 overall pick in most leagues, it was a death blow. But, those who handcuffed McCaffrey with Davis have been keeping their heads above water. In the four games McCaffrey has been out, Davis has two games with 84 or more rushing yards and has scored a touchdown in each game. His role may greatly diminish when McCaffrey returns, but he has been a solid RB2 in any format.
Thielen was drafted to be a borderline WR1 – a guy barely in or barely out of the top 10 on draft day. But, while Justin Jefferson has been stealing the headlines of late, Thielen has seven touchdowns in six games and only has one game in which he didn’t score. He is a machine and the guy Kirk Cousins looks to when he needs a big catch. Minnesota may stink and his quarterback is a bum, but Thielen just keeps on rolling.
Henderson has become one of the more interesting backs this season as the guy grabbing the job to replace Todd Gurley. In the opener, he had just three carries for six yards. But, in the five games since, he has rushed for 80 or more yards three times and has scored four touchdowns. His disparity just keeps growing, even with Malcolm Brown and rookie Cam Akers available.
What made Jackson the MVP last year was that he was an incredible rushing threat, but also had three or more TD passes in seven of 15 games. This season, the only game he had three passing TDs was Week 1. He’s still someone I wish I had in every league. He’ll never be benched, but he hasn’t been light’s out, which is what everyone who took him as the first or second fantasy QB expected. I never want to go up against him, but he has yet to have that one-man gang game that blows an opponent out of the water.
The knock on Landry is that his value is much higher in PPR leagues because he has never been known as a touchdown threat. But, he’s been a bust in any format. He doesn’t have more than five receptions in any game, has just two games with more than 50 receiving yards (61 and 88) and his next touchdown will be his first touchdown. He’s pushed himself out of lineups and firmly in trade talks to move him as a name, not for his production.
He had the chance to be the go-to guy in the run game, especially when injuries made him about the only option. But, through six games, he has just one touchdown, brings little as a receiver in the Bills offense and, over the last three games, has rushed 39 times for just 113 yards. He is becoming a harder sell all the time to justify starting every week.
This a real head-scratcher. He’s expected to miss three or so weeks, but that is actually a good thing for Ertz owners. At a time when some tight ends can dominate weeks, Ertz was considered one of them, but hasn’t been that. Not even close. In six games, he has more than 42 yards receiving just once, less than 20 in half of them and has just one catch of more than 12 yards. At least he doesn’t hurt an owner now because his bad games don’t count against them.
You weren’t expecting a ton of touchdowns from Edelman, but you were expecting receptions and yards. In five games, he has just 20 catches for 302 yards – with eight receptions and 179 yards coming in one game. He proved against Seattle in Week 2 that he still has dominance in him, but, over the last three games, he has caught just seven passes for 66 yards. He’s borderline dump-worthy for those with deep rosters.
