Tag: Justin Fields fantasy football

The Chicago Bears’ deep backfield offers more questions than answers

Will rookie Roschon Johnson shake up the backfield for fantasy purposes?

While the Chicago Bears’ struggles passing the ball were well documented, they quietly led the NFL in both rushing yards (3,014) and yards per carry (5.4). Of course, much of that was QB Justin Fields, whose 1,143 yards paced the club. Conversely, their top two backs, David Montgomery, and Khalil Herbert, finished with 801 and 731 yards, respectively — without Fields, Chicago’s yards per carry drops to 4.7, which would’ve tied for eighth.

Montgomery, who served as the team’s lead back in each of his four NFL seasons, signed with the Detroit Lions during the offseason. To replace him, the Bears inked former Carolina Panthers RB D’Onta Foreman to a one-year deal and spent a fourth-round selection on Roschon Johnson. That trio should partner with Fields in what figures to be a more balanced attack after Chicago strengthened their pass catchers via trades and free agency.

Still, the ground game appears to be the strength of the Bears offense, so let’s look at how the backfield touches might be divvied up.

How should fantasy footballers approach Chicago’s tight ends?

Looking into Chicago’s potential dual-threat tight end room.

A season ago, the phrase “Chicago Bears passing game” practically reached oxymoronic status alongside the likes of “jumbo shrimp” and “civil war.” The team attempted just 377 passes, which not only ranked last in the NFL, but it also was the lowest number of pass attempts since the Pittsburgh Steelers had 358 back in 2004 — and Pittsburgh’s per-game mark was slightly higher.

Clearly, that isn’t a winning approach, and the Bears have gone about overhauling their offense with trades for Chase Claypool and DJ Moore at receiver, the selection of Darnell Wright at tackle, and the signings of Nate Davis (left guard), and Robert Tonyan at tight end. The last of which will join Cole Kmet to give third-year quarterback Justin Fields a potentially potent combination at the position. Let’s see how Tonyan’s arrival affects the tight end outlook in Chicago for fantasy owners.

Chicago sends No. 1 pick to Carolina for DJ Moore and draft capital

A quick breakdown of the Bears trading the No. 1 pick to the Panthers.

Yowzers.

That’s a massive haul for the Chicago Bears to land in order for the Carolina Panthers to select the quarterback of their choosing next month, and it’s an upgrade for the overall 2023 fantasy football outlook in the Windy City.

Carolina immediately goes into full rebuilding mode as the Bears remain on the upward swing of their major remodeling. Chicago quarterback Justin Fields gets a legitimate No. 1 receiver, while the team slides down to just the ninth pick this year to add more talent around the young signal caller.

Many fantasy footballers will be excited for Moore to rebound after a disappointing 2022 season. His acquisition should solidify Fields as a top-seven or so fantasy passer after a QB1 showing thanks to his legs. Thanks to coaching changes and quarterback woes, Moore fell to WR25 in 2022 but has a chance to return to his WR15-17 range from 2021 and ’19. Interestingly, he scored a career-high seven times in last year’s letdown. The Maryland product was the 25th-best positional performer in 2020.

Concerns of production from a city that has struggled to generate viable fantasy receivers are overblown. Wideout Allen Robinson finished inside in the top seven in 2019 and ’20. Darnell Mooney emerged as WR23 out of nowhere in 2021 before an disappointing, injury-shortened 2022 when he was the only Chicago receiver to finish inside of the top 73. Moore’s floor should be no worse than WR30, and he has potential to finish in the mid-teens.

Mooney also stands to benefit from Moore joining the fray, and it allows him to get back to relying on his vertical nature, but there are only so many footballs to go around, especially if the quarterback rushes 10 times and throws only 21 times per contest. Translate that to better season-long stats but inconsistent production from week to week.

Moore’s presence cuts into Chase Claypool‘s chances of getting back on track. Much like with Mooney, there’s is only one football, and the presumed WR3 in Chicago is just a fringe lineup gamble in sport’s the virtual counterpart. Granted, injuries or an unforeseen leap in Fields’ passing prowess could change that to a small degree, but this situation only places yet another obstacle in Claypool’s way of contributing in fantasy.

Tight end Cole Kmet has the chops but was a forgotten man in this system last year, which is surprising given the design and Fields’ inexperience. We’re now up to four capable options who can catch passes any given week from an offensive game plan that never threw even 30 times in 2022.

The Bears will need to improve the line with the new picks and via free agency. Running back is a question mark, too, with David Montgomery facing free agency. However, the veteran back’s role diminished with the emergence of Fields’ ground game, and any replacement figures to meet the same fate in fake football.

So, while we could see a reasonable rebound from Moore, everyone else is fighting for scraps and profile as matchup plays. Mooney is draftable for depth, and Claypool is no more than a late-round flier. Kmet will be selected as a TE2 in most settings due to his upside, though gamers should tread carefully.

From Carolina’s side of the deal, just about every position is now up for grabs, and the extensive refurbishing will require a post-draft assessment to do it any justice. The only thing for sure is a quarterback will be the top pick.

Fantasy football: 5 quarterback breakout candidates for 2022

Trey Lance is going to win leagues this season.

Everyone wants to draft Josh Allen in fantasy football this year, but are you willing to spend a third or even a second-round pick to get him?

If not, there are many other productive options at quarterback this season, with QBs 2-10 all capable of posting big numbers this fall.

If you decide to wait until really late to draft a QB (or if you play in a two-QB league), consider these five QB breakout candidates who have the potential to outperform their average draft positions this season.

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Ranking second-year quarterbacks most likely to break out

Breaking down the fantasy football outlooks for second-year passers.

While 2022 was a noteworthy exception, a typical NFL draft is dotted with quarterbacks at the top who are given the “can’t miss” tag. In 2021, there were more than usual. The top three picks went quarterback, and two more joined in over the next 12 picks.

To the surprise of many, it wasn’t Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Justin Fields who made the biggest rookie splash. It was Mac Jones and Davis Mills who led the QB Class of 2021.

Given the quick ascent of 2020 rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert (and, to a lesser extent, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts), the timetable for a young franchise quarterback to produce is getting shorter.

We take a deep dive on the six quarterbacks in question and their selling points to make a jump in their fantasy value in Year 2.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence was the first overall pick in 2021 and widely hailed as the best quarterback to come to the NFL since Andrew Luck. Surrounded by a brutal supporting cast and mired by a coaching disaster, he threw just 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.

  • After throwing seven interceptions in his first three games, he didn’t throw a pick in nine of the final 14.
  • He completed just 59.6 percent of his passes, but in his last three games, Lawrence completed 66 of 98 passes (67.3 percent).
  • He showed some ability as a scrambler, rushing five or more times in eight games and finishing second on the team with 334 rushing yards.
  • Jacksonville gave him more explosive weapons to work with this offseason, adding speedy wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to join Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, as well as adding TE Evan Engram.
  • The Jaguars addressed its porous offensive line, adding veteran guard Brandon Scherff and drafting center Luke Fortner (third round).

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Wilson came to the NFL to a relatively barren cupboard of offensive playmakers. As the season progressed, he became a better game manager after taking too many risks early. He learned quickly the wide-open style at BYU doesn’t necessarily translate to the NFL.

  • After throwing 11 interceptions in his first eight games, he had none in his final five starts.
  • He showed some ability as a situational runner, scoring four rushing touchdowns in his final seven games.
  • Wilson possesses all the intangibles a quarterback needs, including accuracy, decision-making, and the ability to make plays when they break down.
  • The Jets were ravaged by WR injuries last season with free agent signee Corey Davis missing eight games and Elijah Moore missing six. If the top receivers are healthy, Wilson’s numbers will climb.
  • New York invested a first-round draft pick on Garrett Wilson, a tremendous route runner who can play inside or outside and provides another weapon.

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Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers made the bold climb to No. 3 in the 2021 draft for Lance, who made just 17 starts at North Dakota State. He’s expected to be the starter, but if Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) isn’t traded, there will be a legitimate competition on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

  • Lance is the biggest unknown among the quarterbacks at the top of the Class of 2021.
  • The best pure athlete of the group with a combination of size, arm strength and speed
  • Has the best supporting cast of any of these six QBs
  • He threw five touchdowns on just 71 passes and in his two starts ran 24 times for 120 yards.
  • Lance plays in an offense that runs the ball effectively and takes the pressure off the quarterback more than most offenses.
  • Two significant changes to the interior offensive line could become a negative factor

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Fields was supposed to be given time to learn before replacing Andy Dalton. Dalton was injured in Week 2 and Fields was thrown into the fire. He showed incredible skill throwing on the run but had far too many disastrous throws that often negated his positives.

  • In his first three starts, he threw 57 passes, completed 29 with one touchdown. In his last two starts, he threw 72 passes, completed 44 with three TDs.
  • He averaged almost six yards per rushing attempt and posted 103 rushing yards against San Francisco and 74 against Green Bay.
  • Gets a revamped receiver corps, including Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Tajae Sharpe and Dante Pettis to go with Darnell Mooney. This group will learn and grow together under a first-year head coach (Matt Eberflus) as well as a rookie offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy (modified West Coast).
  • He has no competition … unless you consider journeyman Trevor Siemian competition.
  • He plays in what many consider the weakest top-to-bottom division in the NFC.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

Jones was the fourth quarterback taken, but when Cam Newton was cut after the preseason, it was Jones’ team. A year into the Patriots system, Bill Belichick has his protege ready to take his next step.

  • Led all rookie quarterbacks with 3,801 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, a 67.6 completion percentage, and a 92.5 passer rating
  • He completed 70 percent or more of his passes in nine games.
  • He’s never been a runner, so his focus on improving his game is solely on passing.
  • He has all of his primary receivers back from last year, plus James White returning from a season-ending hip injury and DeVante Parker entering as a new weapon.
  • The Patriots coaching staff has a penchant for calling plays that keep a quarterback safe and not taking unnecessary risks. There’s no clear offensive play-caller with Josh McDaniels now the head coach in Vegas, but the system isn’t expected to change much, if at all.

Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Davis was intended to be the No. 3 guy in Houston, but with Deshaun Watson out and Tyrod Taylor hurt, he started 11 games, throwing for 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and passer rating of 88.5.

  • He has no competition with Watson and Taylor gone.
  • In his first nine games (seven starts), he had eight touchdowns and four interceptions. In his last four starts, he produced eight touchdowns vs. two interceptions.
  • Mills logged four 300-yard passing games – most among the 2021 class.
  • Houston has what could be the worst run game in the league and a leaky, which forces passing.
  • The Texans have cobbled some receiver depth with Brandin Cooks, Chris Conley, Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Moore and rookie John Metchie III.

Fantasy football outlook

There isn’t a player in this group who is likely to ascend to QB1 status (a top 12 fantasy player), but they’re all in the QB2 range with varied levels of upside.

  • Although he likely has the lowest ceiling, right now Jones has the highest floor and should have the top ranking.
  • Fields checks in at No. 2 because of the schedule he faces and lack of competition in Chicago. He will need to get the most of his weaponry, however, and is the riskiest of the top three.
  • The addition of speed receivers moves Lawrence up to No. 3 but not to the top spot yet.
  • Wilson is No. 4, because the Jets are still a year away from having an offense that clicks.
  • Lance slips in at No. 5 because, like Herbert and Burrow, comes to a team with offensive weapons, but needs Jimmy G gone to solidify his value.
  • Davis (again) is No. 6, but by season’s end he may be the most impressive (again).

It wouldn’t be a total surprise if Lance finishes as the No. 1 of this group, nor would it be a shocker if Lawrence ended up there, either. Both need a few breaks to go their respective ways before we’re comfortable making such a prediction. We’ll keep tabs on these situations as training camp provides more clarity on some of the unsettled scenarios.

Fantasy football team previews: NFC North

It’s time to catch up on all of the NFC North’s fantasy-based changes.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Is there fantasy football value in new-look Bears QB room?

Does a trio of new QBs offer any hope?

Despite an 8-8 record in 2020, the Chicago Bears reached the postseason as the NFC’s first-ever seventh seed, which was enough to grant head coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace a stay of execution.

Make no mistake, however, that duo is on the clock after they laid the blame for Chicago’s offensive regression at the feet of Mitchell Trubisky, who Pace infamously selected ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, by allowing him to depart in free agency.

Rumors swirled that the Bears were in on acquiring Watson and later Russell Wilson, but those hopes evaporated on March 17 when veteran Andy Dalton signed a one-year deal. The torches and pitchforks were out amongst the Bears faithful, but Pace had another move up his sleeve. On draft day, the GM packaged the 20th pick along with next year’s first-round selection and a pair of mid-rounders to move up and nab Ohio State’s Justin Fields.

In the wake of those additions, Nagy announced that Dalton would open the season as QB1 while Fields watches and learns. It’s a plan we’ve seen laid out time and time again, though teams frequently abandon that approach if/when the losses begin to mount. With Nagy and Pace holding on by the skin of their teeth, you can bet the pressure will be immense to get this right lest another coach and GM oversee Fields’ development in 2022.

Andy Dalton

If you’re searching for an example of a young QB succeeding right away you needn’t look further than Dalton, who led Cincinnati to a 9-7 record and a Wild Card bid as a second-round pick. It would be the first of five straight playoff appearances for Dalton, though his Bengals tenure came to an end in 2019 after four sub-.500 finishes in a row.

His lone season in Dallas proved eventful as he was pressed into action by the injury to Dak Prescott, making nine uneven starts sandwiched around a concussion. While his final numbers weren’t terrible, they were propped up by a three-game December run against the Bengals, San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, all of whom were out of playoff contention. A Week 17 loss to the 5-10 Giants ended the Cowboys’ hope for a division title.

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Despite a deep and talented receiving corps in Dallas, Dalton looked every bit a game manager with a career-low 6.5 yards per attempt on 64.9 percent completions. He did limit the big mistakes after some issues with interceptions late in his Bengals career, but we’re now nearly a decade removed from his best statistical season: 4,293 yards and 33 TDs in 2013.

Dalton’s ability to remain QB1 in Chicago hinges on one thing, winning, and the recipe for that is going to be making safe reads, avoiding turnovers and hoping the defense can make plays. Could it work? Sure, but there’s no upside here. Avoid.

Justin Fields

If the Red Rifle misfires you can bet Nagy won’t hesitate to call Fields’ number. The rookie arrives amid massive hype to a QB-starved franchise, in part because of his work at high-profile Ohio State (5,701 yards, 67 TDs, 9 INTs in two seasons), but it’s fair to wonder if expectations have gotten out of hand based on how badly Chicago missed with the Trubisky pick.

Fields showed poise and toughness with the Buckeyes, and he has the athleticism to make plays in the pocket and on the run. On the flip side, scouts worry about his tendency to lock onto targets and not go through progressions. He also had issues with ball security that need to be addressed.

While his collegiate numbers are eye popping, you shouldn’t read into them as he was surrounded by high-end talent that often simply overmatched opponents and operated in Ryan Day’s spread offense. Neither of those factors will be in place in Chicago. Yes, Allen Robinson (102-1,250-6) is a stud, but after that you’re counting on developing players, like Darnell Mooney (61-631-4) and Cole Kmet (28-243-2), alongside aging talent, such as Jimmy Graham (50-456-8).

No matter who takes the snaps, expect running back David Montgomery to be the centerpiece of the offense after a strong close to his sophomore season saw him log 301 touches, 1,508 yards and 10 TDs. Scatback Tarik Cohen returns as well after missing most of 2020 with a torn ACL. He opened camp on the PUP list but is likely to be ready for Week 1. Cohen caught 150 passes in 2018-19 and should be a popular target for the cautious Dalton or inexperienced Fields.

There’s certainly a lot to like about Fields’ potential, but there is no shortage of question marks for 2021: When will he take over for Dalton? What will the offense look like with him under center? Do the Bears have enough talent around him? Is Nagy capable of developing a young quarterback? With so much uncertainty, drafting Fields as more than a late-round flier is a mistake, and his true value lies in dynasty leagues.

Nick Foles

In case you’d forgotten, Foles is still in the Windy City with an albatross of a contract that includes a $14.3 million cap hit if he’s released. The veteran is still celebrated for his stellar play during Philly’s 2017 Super Bowl run, but he’s had only one impactful season in his 10-year career, and that came under Chip Kelly in 2013. You know things have gone completely off the rails if Foles takes snaps for the Bears this year.