Examining recent fantasy football ADP data

Which players stood out the most in a look at recent ADP results?

Every fantasy football draft season creates what is known as “average draft position” data (ADP), which gamers can utilize to help find trends and get a feel for current valuation tendencies.

It’s a fair way for novice players to relate positional value and also contrast how other drafters perceive worth vs. other positions. That said, it’s easy to get caught up in the numbers and fixate too much on them.

Don’t become enamored with the raw data, especially if you’re unable to validate the source material. For example, mock drafters may not be as likely to put forth earnest effort and/or could be willing to take wild risks in relation to making picks when that actually count for something.

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Utilizing ADP data as guidelines is fine, but getting wrapped up in strictly adhering to them will get you in trouble. It’s always a positive to know whereabouts players tend to get selected within a few rounds’ margin or to develop a feel for positional runs — such as how many of the safe QB1s or No. 1 tight ends go in the first eight rounds, on average. ADP never should be treated as the be all, end all.

With that out of the way, here’s commentary from the most recent ADP chart from RTSports.com. The data used comes from 12-team, PPR drafts between July 21 to July 27. Players in green are significant movers upward, whereas those highlighted in red have drastically fallen of late.

Pick Rnd Player Pos Team Bye Notes
1.61 1 Justin Jefferson WR MIN 13
1.83 1 Christian McCaffrey RB SF 9
3.17 1 Ja’Marr Chase WR CIN 7
4.52 1 Austin Ekeler RB LAC 5
6.35 1 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 10
7.81 1 Travis Kelce TE KC 10
8.01 1 Bijan Robinson RB ATL 11
8.15 1 Saquon Barkley RB NYG 13 Holdout threat is gone after signing new one-year deal
8.28 1 Tyreek Hill WR MIA 10
10.57 1 Jonathan Taylor RB IND 11 Contractual situation seems to have building frustration with the organization
10.95 1 Nick Chubb RB CLE 5
12.69 2 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 7
15.45 2 Stefon Diggs WR BUF 13
15.50 2 Josh Jacobs RB LV 13 Lengthy holdout expected, perhaps into the preseason
15.64 2 Tony Pollard RB DAL 7
16.11 2 A.J. Brown WR PHI 10
17.70 2 Davante Adams WR LV 13
18.68 2 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ 7 May slip a spot or two coming up after suffering a minor injury in camp
20.18 2 Derrick Henry RB TEN 7
20.33 2 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET 9
20.50 2 Josh Allen QB BUF 13
20.57 2 Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE 11 Patriots’ overtures toward signing another RB is disconcerting
21.33 2 Patrick Mahomes QB KC 10
24.56 3 Najee Harris RB PIT 6
26.73 3 Breece Hall RB NYJ 7 Dalvin Cook visiting on 7/27 sends a clear message over Hall’s health
27.31 3 Jaylen Waddle WR MIA 10
27.51 3 DeVonta Smith WR PHI 10
27.52 3 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 10
28.47 3 Chris Olave WR NO 11
30.68 3 Travis Etienne RB JAX 9
31.54 3 Mark Andrews TE BAL 13
33.80 3 Kenneth Walker III RB SEA 5
34.45 3 Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 9
36.02 4 Joe Burrow QB CIN 7 Should start to fall a few spots after suffering calf strain in practice
36.87 4 Tee Higgins WR CIN 7
37.74 4 Dameon Pierce RB HOU 7
37.97 4 Joe Mixon RB CIN 7
39.94 4 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA 5
42.17 4 Miles Sanders RB CAR 7
42.38 4 Amari Cooper WR CLE 5
42.43 4 Aaron Jones RB GB 6
42.48 4 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 13
43.99 4 Deebo Samuel WR SF 9
44.56 4 T.J. Hockenson TE MIN 13
45.03 4 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 13 Mystery absence continues to drive his value down; tread carefully
45.52 4 Terry McLaurin WR WAS 14
48.17 5 Justin Herbert QB LAC 5
48.57 5 Alexander Mattison RB MIN 13
49.88 5 Keenan Allen WR LAC 5
50.87 5 Rachaad White RB TB 5
51.39 5 DeAndre Hopkins WR TEN 7
51.53 5 Dalvin Cook RB FA 13 Awfully large investment for a guy who is bound to share significant touches wherever he signs
52.90 5 Justin Fields QB CHI 13
53.31 5 Calvin Ridley WR JAX 9
55.37 5 D’Andre Swift RB PHI 10
57.12 5 Cam Akers RB LAR 10
57.28 5 George Kittle TE SF 9
60.85 6 James Conner RB ARI 14
62.14 6 Christian Watson WR GB 6
62.50 6 Javonte Williams RB DEN 9 Cleared for camp and will avoid the PUP; still could be overvalued, however
63.57 6 D.J. Moore WR CHI 13
64.23 6 Jerry Jeudy WR DEN 9
64.24 6 Trevor Lawrence QB JAX 9
64.40 6 Mike Williams WR LAC 5
65.35 6 Christian Kirk WR JAX 9 Seemingly overvalued if Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram ADPs prove true
65.73 6 Isiah Pacheco RB KC 10 Coming along nicely from two offseason surgeries
67.43 6 Chris Godwin WR TB 5
67.81 6 Drake London WR ATL 11
68.74 6 Darren Waller TE NYG 13
69.02 6 Kyle Pitts TE ATL 11
71.18 6 David Montgomery RB DET 9
71.81 6 James Cook RB BUF 13
72.03 7 Dallas Goedert TE PHI 10
73.79 7 Michael Pittman Jr. WR IND 11
74.11 7 Tyler Lockett WR SEA 5
75.41 7 Antonio Gibson RB WAS 14
75.66 7 Brandon Aiyuk WR SF 9
77.52 7 AJ Dillon RB GB 6
80.49 7 Alvin Kamara RB NO 11 Seeing slight bump after reaching a plea deal but still a facing possible suspension
81.33 7 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 6
81.50 7 Mike Evans WR TB 5 Tough to justify how undervalued he has been all summer, even with a shaky QB situation
82.86 7 Marquise Brown WR ARI 14
85.40 8 George Pickens WR PIT 6
85.52 8 Deshaun Watson QB CLE 5
87.40 8 Brian Robinson Jr. RB WAS 14 Sound value for an RB3 if you miss out on the more obvious options
88.53 8 Jamaal Williams RB NO 11
90.55 8 Dak Prescott QB DAL 7
91.23 8 De’Von Achane RB MIA 10
92.55 8 Khalil Herbert RB CHI 13
93.46 8 Kadarius Toney WR KC 10 Torn knee cartilage WR puts Week 1 in jeopardy; stock will plummet once news catches up
93.92 8 Jordan Addison WR MIN 13
94.04 8 Treylon Burks WR TEN 7 Seeing a dip in his ADP after DeAndre Hopkins signing; offering strong WR3 value
94.15 8 Samaje Perine RB DEN 9 Small decline thanks to Javonte Williams being healthy enough to avoid PUP
96.34 9 Evan Engram TE JAX 9
96.61 9 Pat Freiermuth TE PIT 6
99.38 9 Jahan Dotson WR WAS 14
99.44 9 Zach Charbonnet RB SEA 5
99.61 9 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA 5
99.84 9 Rashaad Penny RB PHI 10
101.44 9 Courtland Sutton WR DEN 9
102.30 9 Brandin Cooks WR DAL 7 Pretty sweet value this late in drafts
103.64 9 Tua Tagovailoa QB MIA 10
104.57 9 David Njoku TE CLE 5 Continues to be overvalued
105.18 9 Michael Thomas WR NO 11 Could see his ADP rise with a healthy showing in camp
105.61 9 Damien Harris RB BUF 13
109.01 10 Daniel Jones QB NYG 13
112.09 10 Gabriel Davis WR BUF 13
113.88 10 San Francisco 49ers DEF SF 9
114.06 10 Elijah Mitchell RB SF 9
114.40 10 D’Onta Foreman RB CHI 13 Appears to be the third wheel between Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson
115.35 10 Odell Beckham Jr. WR BAL 13
115.56 10 Kirk Cousins QB MIN 13
116.94 10 Jared Goff QB DET 9
119.30 10 Jerick McKinnon RB KC 10
119.30 10 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR NE 11 If healthy, he presents a worthwhile gamble
119.58 10 Elijah Moore WR CLE 5
120.02 11 Dalton Kincaid TE BUF 13
120.26 11 Geno Smith QB SEA 5
122.07 11 Aaron Rodgers QB NYJ 7
125.13 11 Chigoziem Okonkwo TE TEN 7
125.36 11 Dalton Schultz TE HOU 7 Presents tremendous value in PPR, although it seems like gamers are starting to catch on
125.95 11 Philadelphia Eagles DEF PHI 10
126.93 11 Jameson Williams WR DET 9 DET acquired Denzel Mims, who offers a similar skill set. Use that to your advantage to stash Williams
128.04 11 Quentin Johnston WR LAC 5
128.81 11 Justin Tucker K BAL 13
131.66 11 Anthony Richardson QB IND 11
132.88 12 Kareem Hunt RB FA 5
133.75 12 Jaylen Warren RB PIT 6
134.81 12 Russell Wilson QB DEN 9
135.39 12 Adam Thielen WR CAR 7 Thielen’s stock continues to climb as Bryce Young’s reputation builds
135.78 12 Allen Lazard WR NYJ 7
136.40 12 Tyler Allgeier RB ATL 11
136.41 12 Kendre Miller RB NO 11 Lingering recovery from knee injury has him falling, in addition to Alvin Kamara accepting plea deal
136.65 12 Tank Bigsby RB JAX 9 Solidifying himself as a primary backup with a possible role near the goal line; nice value buy
137.62 12 Devin Singletary RB HOU 7
139.44 12 Ezekiel Elliott RB FA 7
140.42 12 Dallas Cowboys DEF DAL 7
142.64 12 Rondale Moore WR ARI 14
143.34 12 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 10 Miami appears to be out of the Dalvin Cook sweepstakes, which bodes well for Mostert
143.39 12 Zay Flowers WR BAL 13 Practicing at three positions and drawing praise. Bump from Rashod Bateman on PUP
145.49 13 Greg Dulcich TE DEN 9
146.49 13 Donovan Peoples-Jones WR CLE 5
146.84 13 Rashod Bateman WR BAL 13 Placed on PUP while recovering from foot injury
147.67 13 New England Patriots DEF NE 11
148.65 13 Tyler Higbee TE LAR 10
148.70 13 Leonard Fournette RB FA 5
149.96 13 Cole Kmet TE CHI 13
150.30 13 Nico Collins WR HOU 7
152.68 13 Daniel Carlson K LV 13
153.02 13 Sam LaPorta TE DET 9 Trending in the right direction to become the team’s starting tight end
153.60 13 Buffalo Bills DEF BUF 13
154.43 13 Derek Carr QB NO 11
155.28 13 Tyjae Spears RB TEN 7 Awesome price point for a handcuff or independent RB5 buy
157.01 14 Romeo Doubs WR GB 6 Has been Jordan Love’s go-to guy this offseason; should be trending upward soon
158.09 14 Skyy Moore WR KC 10 Benefits greatly from Kadarius Toney’s knee injury; will continue to fly up boards
158.22 14 Roschon Johnson RB CHI 13 Criminally undervalued as he’s in a competition for the RB1 role
159.26 14 Chuba Hubbard RB CAR 7
159.39 14 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 10
160.54 14 Cordarrelle Patterson RB ATL 11 Slowly trending upward due to potential pass-catching role
160.71 14 Jakobi Meyers WR LV 13
161.24 14 Kenneth Gainwell RB PHI 10 Nice spot to take a gamble on him being behind two fragile RBs
161.79 14 Tyler Bass K BUF 13
164.82 14 K.J. Osborn WR MIN 13
165.51 14 Baltimore Ravens DEF BAL 13
165.74 14 Irv Smith Jr. TE CIN 7
166.55 14 Jeff Wilson RB MIA 10 De’Von Achane impacts Raheem Mostert more, which isn’t being reflected in ADP data
168.55 15 Darnell Mooney WR CHI 13
168.79 15 Michael Mayer TE LV 13
169.12 15 Evan McPherson K CIN 7
169.14 15 Jerome Ford RB CLE 5 Oddly, he’s falling when he should be rising. One to watch in camp
169.57 15 Tyler Boyd WR CIN 7
170.70 15 Jacksonville Jaguars DEF JAX 9
171.17 15 Jordan Love QB GB 6
172.53 15 Juwan Johnson TE NO 11 Quickly going from sneaky sleeper to risky depth in a crowded TE room
173.80 15 Michael Carter RB NYJ 7
174.69 15 Jonathan Mingo WR CAR 7
175.61 15 Jason Myers K SEA 5
178.58 15 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC 10
178.59 15 Joshua Kelley RB LAC 5
178.66 15 Kyler Murray QB ARI 14 Ever so slightly crawling up boards as he’s receiving more positive health reports
178.89 15 Harrison Butker K KC 10
179.47 15 Wan’Dale Robinson WR NYG 13 Still not healthy and may not be for some time yet
179.59 15 Gus Edwards RB BAL 13
179.79 15 Kansas City Chiefs DEF KC 10
179.92 15 Jalin Hyatt WR NYG 13
180.29 16 Bryce Young QB CAR 7
180.38 16 Zay Jones WR JAX 9
180.56 16 Kenny Pickett QB PIT 6
181.25 16 Parris Campbell WR NYG 13
181.53 16 Chase Brown RB CIN 7
182.46 16 New York Jets DEF NYJ 7
182.59 16 Gerald Everett TE LAC 5
183.25 16 Zach Evans RB LAR 10 Seeing his stock fall with the addition of Sony Michel, despite Evans being a far better talent
184.45 16 Tim Patrick WR DEN 9
184.71 16 Miami Dolphins DEF MIA 10
185.89 16 Taysom Hill TE NO 11
186.74 16 Brock Purdy QB SF 9 Elbow is on track and should remain in the lead for San Fran’s QB1 gig
186.85 16 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 7
186.96 16 Mac Jones QB NE 11
188.21 16 Zach Ertz TE ARI 14
188.47 16 Ryan Tannehill QB TEN 7 Creeping his way up boards following the DeAndre Hopkins signing
189.06 16 Alec Pierce WR IND 11
189.68 16 New Orleans Saints DEF NO 11
189.82 16 Sam Howell QB WAS 14
189.97 16 Rashee Rice WR KC 10
190.17 16 Hunter Henry TE NE 11
190.60 16 Chase Edmonds RB TB 5
190.73 16 Cameron Dicker K LAC 5
191.67 16 Brandon McManus K JAX 9
192.29 17 D’Ernest Johnson RB JAX 9
192.30 17 Pierre Strong Jr. RB NE 11
192.68 17 Jayden Reed WR GB 6
192.84 17 Zack Moss RB IND 11 Challenging for the RB2 role behind a top back adds intrigue
193.30 17 Nathaniel Dell WR HOU 7
193.96 17 Pittsburgh Steelers DEF PIT 6
194.35 17 Denver Broncos DEF DEN 9
194.78 17 Isaiah Hodgins WR NYG 13 Starting to rise from a shaky WR corps after a quality stretch in 2022
194.84 17 Cleveland Browns DEF CLE 5
194.90 17 Younghoe Koo K ATL 11
195.01 17 Rashid Shaheed WR NO 11
195.75 17 Zamir White RB LV 13 Handcuff for Josh Jacobs and is on the upswing thanks to the star back’s holdout
196.08 17 Jimmy Garoppolo QB LV 13
197.12 17 Cincinnati Bengals DEF CIN 7
197.33 17 Michael Gallup WR DAL 7 Still seeing his stock dip after the acquisition of Brandin Cooks; merely a flier at this point
197.86 17 Desmond Ridder QB ATL 11 Sleeper potential at a bare-bones price tag
198.02 17 Jake Elliott K PHI 10
198.18 17 Matt Breida RB NYG 13 Facing competition after Eric Gray was drafted and James Robinson joined off the street
198.35 17 Jake Moody K SF 9
198.70 17 Brett Maher K DEN 9
199.00 17 Seattle Seahawks DEF SEA 5
199.00 17 Mike Gesicki TE NE 11
199.10 17 DeVante Parker WR NE 11
199.23 17 Greg Zuerlein K NYJ 7
199.84 17 Marvin Mims WR DEN 9
200.14 17 D.J. Chark WR CAR 7
200.27 17 Van Jefferson WR LAR 10 Tremendous upside this late after an injury-impacted 2022 dulled his ’21 shine
200.36 17 Ty Chandler RB MIN 13
200.47 17 Riley Patterson K DET 9
200.50 17 Israel Abanikanda RB NYJ 7 Dark horse for touches if Dalvin Cook doesn’t sign
200.72 17 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR KC 10
200.77 17 Jarvis Landry WR FA 11
201.00 17 Washington Commanders DEF WAS 14
202.15 17 Mecole Hardman WR NYJ 7
202.30 17 Allen Robinson WR PIT 6 Battling Calvin Austin for the slot role; looked great in OTAs and is worth monitoring
202.53 17 Hunter Renfrow WR LV 13
203.06 17 Terrace Marshall Jr. WR CAR 7 Looking at a fresh start with a clear mind following a poor start to his career
203.33 17 Luke Musgrave TE GB 6
203.65 17 Deuce Vaughn RB DAL 7
203.70 17 Robert Woods WR HOU 7
203.82 17 Hayden Hurst TE CAR 7

Fantasy Football DFS Daily Domination: Super Bowl LVII

Breaking down the top players and sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Super Bowl LVII DFS fantasy football.

It is Super Bowl LVII week, and this means there is only one game for our DFS enjoyment. Fortunately, all the major sites offer single-game (and even partial-game) contests, often referred to as Showdowns.

These contests often introduce different strategies compared to regular full-slate DFS contests, so I will break them down for you besides analyzing the individual players in the game.

First up: The Rules

On DK, you are required to put together a six-man roster for $50k or less, and you must use at least one player from each team. In addition, we must identify one of those six players as your “captain.” They award the captain 1.5x his total output (including potential negative points). This player also costs 1.5x more when you place them in the captain slot, so you have to weigh the value difference of those extra points versus the extra cost.

On FD, they give you more money ($60k) for fewer spots (only five). You still select a Captain (or as they call it an MVP). The biggest difference, however, is your MVP costs are the same as your non-MVPs. There is no penalty for putting a player in that slot. This means that you want the top scorer in your lineup in that slot, regardless of his price.

Second: The Usual Strategies

Much like in regular DFS, you can stack correlative players (QB-WR/TE) or (RB-DEF). The key thing to remember, though, is you need to have at least one player from both teams.

If you believe the game will be one-sided, stack your favored QB along with one of his receiving weapons, plus his RB1, and their defense, and then run it back with a passing game weapon of the opposition.

If you believe this game will be high-scoring and close, then you will probably want to do a stack, including both QBs and at least one receiving option for each team. This will be my favorite strategy this week.

If you feel both teams will struggle to score, then you should use both defenses and one or both kickers.

Potential lineups for DK

Captain: Travis Kelce ($15.9k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($11k), Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Dallas Goedert ($6.4k), Boston Scott ($3k), Justin Watson ($2k)
This lineup gives you both QBs and the elite tight end for each team. It also gives you two TD-dependent depth pieces, one of which, Watson, may see an uptick in playing time due to injuries.

Captain: Jalen Hurts ($16.8k)
Roster: A.J. Brown ($9.2k), DeVonta Smith ($8.6k), Miles Sanders ($7.8k), Jake Elliott ($4.2k), Justin Watson ($2k)
Perhaps you believe that this will be a blowout by Philly (why, I have no idea). This lineup gives you maximum exposure to the four best offensive pieces for Philadelphia, plus their kicker.

Captain: Patrick Mahomes ($16.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($10.6k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6.2k), Isiah Pacheco ($7.2k), Harrison Butker ($4k), Kenneth Gainwell ($5k)
Or, maybe you believe Philly made it to the big game via an easy path and now they will be tested by an elite KC offense. This gives you the top options for KC, their kicker, and a red-zone TD threat for the Eagles.

Captain: DeVonta Smith ($12.9k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($11k), Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Dallas Goedert ($6.4k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6.2k), Justin Watson ($2k)
I really like Smith this week, so this would be one of my favorite “shootout” lineups. This lineup also keeps both offenses in play but considers Philly attempting to take Kelce out of the game.

Captain: Philadelphia Eagles defense ($5.4k)
Roster: Kansas City Chiefs defense ($3.4k), Isiah Pacheco (7.2k), Miles Sanders ($7.8k), Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Patrick Mahomes ($11k)
Both QBs are dealing with various levels of injury. Perhaps you can see both defenses raging passing-game havoc in this one. This still gives you both QBs (who can still gain floor-level points) but also adds both top RBs and gives you credit for sacks and turnovers.

Captain: Quez Watkins ($2.1k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($10.6k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($6.2k) or JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5.6k), DeVonta Smith ($8.6k), Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Patrick Mahomes ($11k)
Unless you go deep, deep diving at captain, it is hard to fit all the stars into your lineup. This at least puts a reasonable depth piece into that slot and gives you both QBs and three of the top four passing-game weapons in this game.

Captain: JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8.4k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($11k) or Jalen Hurts ($11.2k), Travis Kelce ($10.6k), DeVonta Smith ($8.6k), A.J. Brown ($9.2k), Justin Watson ($2k)
One of the few ways to get all four of the top receiving options into the lineup would be like this. You also get your choice of one of the QBs.

Potential lineups for FD

MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($17.5k) or Jalen Hurts ($17k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($14k), Dallas Goedert ($10k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k), Kadarius Toney ($7k)
Mahomes or Hurts at MVP tied together with two of the top receiving options for each team. This is my favorite way to attack this slate.

MVP: Jalen Hurts ($17k)
Roster: A.J. Brown ($12.5k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k), Dallas Goedert ($10k), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($9k)
This is your Eagles Voltron stack with a KC run-it-back WR.

MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($17.5k)
Roster: Travis Kelce ($14k), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($9k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k)
As a Chiefs fan, I love this lineup. I just know that it is going to struggle against this pass defense.

MVP: Patrick Mahomes ($17.5k)
Roster: Jalen Hurts ($17k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8k), Justin Watson ($5.5k)
Here is a KC leaning lineup that allows you both QBs.

MVP: Jalen Hurts ($17k)
Roster: Patrick Mahomes ($17.5k), DeVonta Smith ($11.5k), Quez Watkins ($6k), Jake Elliott ($8k)
Here is a Philly leaning lineup that allows you both QBs.

The Game

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Jalen Hurts isn’t listed as injured, but he continues to treat his earlier shoulder injury. This week’s opponent, KC, gives up a lot of yards through the air. That said, they can be both opportunistic and sloppy at the same time. KC’s pass rush is no joke, but the Philly O-line is considerably better than the scrubs that Cincy rolled out there. Even at less than 100%, Hurts remains a scrambling threat. I like him to finish with 200-2 through the air and 40-1 on the ground.

Patrick Mahomes (ankle) survived the conference championship round, and a high-ankle sprain, as Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy came up with a game plan where he was able to successfully operate out of the pocket. Much like Cincy, Philly has solid defensive depth at every level. The biggest difference is that Philly features two elite-level shutdown corners on the outside. Still, the Eagles can be beaten over the middle and that is where Mahomes loves to operate with his salsa-mate Travis Kelce. It may not be pretty, but Mahomes will still reach 300-3 with less than 15 rushing yards.

Miles Sanders surprised me by scoring twice versus the Niners. His YPC was crappy, but with two TDs, no one was complaining. The Chiefs are much easier to run against. He should finish with just under 60 total yards and maybe a score. The reason he may not score is that Philly likes to allow everyone in their backfield to vulture him. Kenneth Gainwell didn’t score last week, but his ending line was actually better than Sanders’, and he looked to be the more explosive back. I expect Gainwell to put up about 45 yards and no TD here. The other threat is Boston Scott, who has stolen a score in two straight playoff games. He feels like more of a TD-dependent dart throw here than a reliable choice.

Isiah Pacheco has once again surpassed Jerick McKinnon as option 1a in the rushing game for KC. Against a stout defensive interior, I expect both to see more targets than carries. Pacheco will finish with roughly 50-1 on the ground and two or three short-yardage receptions. McKinnon will score through the air and could haul in five or six catches for close to 50 total yards. You can ignore both Ronald Jones and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (if he suits up).

DeVonta Smith has actually been more reliable than A.J. Brown in recent weeks. I believe this trend continues here as KC’s secondary remains young and thin but is improving. Smith will score, and both will finish with around 70-80 yards. I could see using Quez Watkins or Zach Pascal as a cheap punt to fill out your roster, but neither should be relied upon as anything more than a flier.

We don’t know who will even be active at WR for KC. If active, JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) is the best bet to lead the WRs in receptions. He will get five or six catches for 50 yards, but I don’t trust him to score, though. Kadarius Toney (ankle, hamstring) is also dinged up, but his skill set makes him a bigger threat to get into the end zone. I don’t like Marquez Valdes-Scantling versus this elite pass defense. That said, if both Toney and Smith-Schuster are out (or limited significantly), you have to consider him. Justin Watson missed the conference championship with an illness. If he plays, he will be a favorite bargain-basement roster filler for me as he always gets one or two deep shots each game. Skyy Moore was forced into a larger role in the previous game. His stats will be minimal if everyone returns.

Dallas Goedert should have an easy go of things in this game. With extra attention devoted to both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, Goedert should operate freely and secure 5-50-1. We can ignore Jack Stoll as he does not see enough usage.

Travis Kelce is going to score and post at least eight receptions for 80 yards. He is the safest player on either side of the ball to use as captain/MVP. Noah GrayBlake Bell, and Jody Fortson can all be minimum-cost roster fillers. Just expect nothing more than the minimum output from any of them as you chase a random TD.

Jake Elliott has been consistent this year, but I expect neither team will be excited to forego TD opportunities for FG chances. That said, with three extra points and a pair of FGs, his nine-point floor is safer than some of the TD-dependent depth WRs/RBs.

Harrison Butker has been clutch this year (especially on long kicks), but he has also had the occasional case of the yips on some shorter tries. In the big game, he will get three extra points and two or three field goal opportunities. At least one of those will be from 50-plus. I will have a lot of exposure to him as a mid-salaried floor piece.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense is a better real-world unit than fantasy defense. They will be limited to just a pair of sacks and a pair of turnovers.

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs defense has a great pass rush, but this will be a big test for them. I don’t see over four sacks and just a single turnover here.

The Player Pool

Player DraftKings Captain Salary DraftKings Regular Salary FanDuel Salary
Jalen Hurts $16,800 $11,200 $17,000
Patrick Mahomes $16,500 $11,000 $17,500
Travis Kelce $15,900 $10,600 $14,000
A.J. Brown $13,800 $9,200 $12,500
DeVonta Smith $12,900 $8,600 $11,500
Miles Sanders $11,700 $7,800 $12,000
Isiah Pacheco $10,800 $7,200 $10,500
Jerick McKinnon $10,200 $6,800 $9,500
Dallas Goedert $9,600 $6,400 $10,000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $9,300 $6,200 $8,000
Chad Henne $9,000 $6,000 $5,000
Gardner Minshew II $9,000 $6,000 $5,000
JuJu Smith-Schuster $8,400 $5,600 $9,000
Kenneth Gainwell $7,500 $5,000 $8,500
Kadarius Toney $6,600 $4,400 $7,000
Jake Elliott $6,300 $4,200 $8,000
Harrison Butker $6,000 $4,000 $8,500
Skyy Moore $5,700 $3,800 $6,000
Philadelphia Eagles Defense $5,400 $3,600 $9,000
Kansas City Chiefs Defense $5,100 $3,400 $8,000
Boston Scott $4,500 $3,000 $7,500
Justin Watson $3,000 $2,000 $5,500
Quez Watkins $2,100 $1,400 $6,000
Noah Gray $1,800 $1,200 $5,500
Clyde Edwards-Helaire $1,500 $1,000 $6,500
Zach Pascal $1,200 $800 $5,500
Jack Stoll $900 $600 $5,000
Blake Bell $600 $400 $5,000
Jody Fortson $300 $200 $5,000
Marcus Kemp $300 $200 $5,500
Ronald Jones II $300 $200 $5,000

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 189

Week 18 fantasy football news, daily lineup tips, and more!

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you Week 18 DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 18

The latest risers and fallers heading into the final week of the NFL’s regular season.

I’ve long maintained that the NFL is the best reality show on television and, with one week to play in the regular season, they’ve proved it once again.

The Philadelphia Eagles have had the best record in the league all year, but could fall to the No. 5 seed with a loss. Tom Brady made the playoffs for the 20th time with a win Sunday. With wins next week, Aaron Rodgers and Bill Belichick make it back to the party after being left for dead. Even the Pittsburgh Steelers are still alive as they look to avoid their first losing season in 20 years after a 2-6 start.

No professional sport is able to build drama like the NFL as it remains the most captivating reality show on TV.

Here is the Week 18 Fantasy Football Market Report.

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 17

The latest players on the upswing and downswing entering Week 17.

One certainty in the NFL is turnover. Typically, only about half of the division winners repeat, teams that had losing records the previous year become winners, and undervalued fantasy players from those teams become unexpected lineup staples.

Last year, 12 NFL teams won 10 or more games – six in each conference. Of those, only three (Buffalo, Kansas City and Cincinnati) will repeat that feat. The other three (Tennessee, New England and Las Vegas) currently have losing records.

In the NFC, only two teams that had double-digit wins last season (San Francisco and Dallas) are going to repeat. The Green Bay Packers (13-4 in 2021) are 7-8 and on playoff life support. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4 in ’21) are 7-8 and only in the playoff hunt because the NFC South is so bad. The Los Angeles Rams (12-5) and Arizona Cardinals (11-6) have a combined record of 9-21 this year.

When you start your preparation for the 2023 fantasy draft, keep in mind which teams look to be on the upswing but not quite there yet – teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions. Given the up-and-down nature of the NFL, they could be in for big things next year and will likely garner more credibility than they had coming into this season – which was almost none.

Here is the Week 17 Fantasy Football Market Report.

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 188

Week 17 fantasy football news, daily lineup tips, and more!

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news, potential championship landmines to avoid, and DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 16

The latest key risers and fallers in fantasy football entering Week 16.

We’ve reached the point in the fantasy football season where the biggest decisions need to be made to get closer to a league championship. An epic season can fold like a card table with one decision.

I’ve never been a “ride or die” type fantasy player – you basically play the same lineup every week because you made the biggest investment in them. I’m more on letting matchups pick my lineup with the exception of unbenchable studs. Beyond that, I’m willing to sit a player I invested heavily in on draft day to play a hunch if the matchup is too juicy to pass.

When you roll the dice in the playoffs and hit, you remember it for a couple years. When you bench a guy you’ve been starting all season on a gut feeling and the guy goes off for three touchdowns? That stain lasts forever.

The ride-or-die people have fewer regrets.

Here is the Week 16 Fantasy Football Market Report.

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 187

Week 16 fantasy football news, daily lineup tips, and more!

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news and an extra Christmas gift in the form of a double slate of DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 15

The most important risers and fallers heading into Week 15.

When it’s sweltering in July and August, natural complainers yip about the heat. I’m thinking about December and January. In July, you don’t even have a fantasy roster. In December and January, you’re horrified to learn your fast-track offense is playing in Buffalo in January and the weather outside is frightful.

What separates good fantasy owners from really good ones is they take into account holiday season weather in July. When I’m on the clock and I have two players I could go either way on, I will go with the player in the more climate-controlled conditions when it comes to fantasy playoff time.

It stuns me that this isn’t a metric fantasy football management. It’s one-and-done in the playoffs. Don’t wake up Sunday morning and see snowplows on a field and straight flags and be caught unaware. That’s how fantasy seasons die.

I say this because there is currently a “superstorm” making its way across the country. A lot of people will be impacted. By the time it gets to the East Coast, it’s going to be all rain. On Sunday. It could be a lot of rain and, more importantly, a lot of wind – the bane of NFL offenses.

Just sayin’.

Here is the Week 15 Fantasy Football Market Report.

The Huddle’s Blitzed Fantasy Football Podcast: Episode 186

Week 15 fantasy football news, daily lineup tips, and more!

In this episode, Steve and Harley bring you B.P.N. NFL news, their “too early” 2023 top-12 tight end rankings, and a double helping of DFS pay-ups, stay-aways and value plays. So Huddle up, tune in, and get Blitzed!

Or, click here to listen