Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 5

The most important risers and fallers in fantasy football.

One of the aspects of fantasy football that never fails to amaze me is when fantasy owners don’t take into account bye weeks. Week 5 will be the last time in a long time that every player on most rosters will be available.

Injuries do their part to gut fantasy rosters, so players who had no draft-day intention of being in the starting lineup are there more weeks than not. Bye weeks are a meaningless gutting – those guys are healthy, just not playing.

There will be eight weeks in which at least two and as many as six teams will be on bye. If you’re a seasoned fantasy player, you probably paid attention to the bye weeks as you were assembling a draft/auction roster, but a lot has happened since then.

A week from now it will dawn on some casual players that the bye weeks have started. You can be ahead of that curve and prepare for it now. If you see a week that will be rough, make a trade to diversify your roster. There will be someone in your league who effectively forfeits a week because too many key players are on their bye. Don’t let that be you.

Here is the Week 5 Fantasy Football Market Report:

Fantasy Football: 5 sleeper quarterbacks for 2022 season

These sleeper quarterbacks could add great value to your roster in fantasy football.

It’s going to be hard to land Josh Allen, the assumed QB1, in fantasy football this year because his stock is off the charts.

If you’re OK with passing on Allen — and the rest of the consensus top-12 QBs — in your fantasy draft, it’s still possible to find good QB value later in the draft with sleeper picks at the position.

Here’s a quick look at five sleeper quarterbacks to consider for the 2022 NFL season.

Fantasy football: 5 quarterback breakout candidates for 2022

Trey Lance is going to win leagues this season.

Everyone wants to draft Josh Allen in fantasy football this year, but are you willing to spend a third or even a second-round pick to get him?

If not, there are many other productive options at quarterback this season, with QBs 2-10 all capable of posting big numbers this fall.

If you decide to wait until really late to draft a QB (or if you play in a two-QB league), consider these five QB breakout candidates who have the potential to outperform their average draft positions this season.

We have more than a quarter-century track record of creating fantasy football champs. Sign up for The Huddle today to gain an award-winning edge on the competition!

Ranking second-year quarterbacks most likely to break out

Breaking down the fantasy football outlooks for second-year passers.

While 2022 was a noteworthy exception, a typical NFL draft is dotted with quarterbacks at the top who are given the “can’t miss” tag. In 2021, there were more than usual. The top three picks went quarterback, and two more joined in over the next 12 picks.

To the surprise of many, it wasn’t Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Justin Fields who made the biggest rookie splash. It was Mac Jones and Davis Mills who led the QB Class of 2021.

Given the quick ascent of 2020 rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert (and, to a lesser extent, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts), the timetable for a young franchise quarterback to produce is getting shorter.

We take a deep dive on the six quarterbacks in question and their selling points to make a jump in their fantasy value in Year 2.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence was the first overall pick in 2021 and widely hailed as the best quarterback to come to the NFL since Andrew Luck. Surrounded by a brutal supporting cast and mired by a coaching disaster, he threw just 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.

  • After throwing seven interceptions in his first three games, he didn’t throw a pick in nine of the final 14.
  • He completed just 59.6 percent of his passes, but in his last three games, Lawrence completed 66 of 98 passes (67.3 percent).
  • He showed some ability as a scrambler, rushing five or more times in eight games and finishing second on the team with 334 rushing yards.
  • Jacksonville gave him more explosive weapons to work with this offseason, adding speedy wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to join Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, as well as adding TE Evan Engram.
  • The Jaguars addressed its porous offensive line, adding veteran guard Brandon Scherff and drafting center Luke Fortner (third round).

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Wilson came to the NFL to a relatively barren cupboard of offensive playmakers. As the season progressed, he became a better game manager after taking too many risks early. He learned quickly the wide-open style at BYU doesn’t necessarily translate to the NFL.

  • After throwing 11 interceptions in his first eight games, he had none in his final five starts.
  • He showed some ability as a situational runner, scoring four rushing touchdowns in his final seven games.
  • Wilson possesses all the intangibles a quarterback needs, including accuracy, decision-making, and the ability to make plays when they break down.
  • The Jets were ravaged by WR injuries last season with free agent signee Corey Davis missing eight games and Elijah Moore missing six. If the top receivers are healthy, Wilson’s numbers will climb.
  • New York invested a first-round draft pick on Garrett Wilson, a tremendous route runner who can play inside or outside and provides another weapon.

Tired of losing your league every season? Be sure to sign up for The Huddle today to gain an award-winning edge on the competition! We have 26 years of experience online building fantasy football champions.

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers made the bold climb to No. 3 in the 2021 draft for Lance, who made just 17 starts at North Dakota State. He’s expected to be the starter, but if Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) isn’t traded, there will be a legitimate competition on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

  • Lance is the biggest unknown among the quarterbacks at the top of the Class of 2021.
  • The best pure athlete of the group with a combination of size, arm strength and speed
  • Has the best supporting cast of any of these six QBs
  • He threw five touchdowns on just 71 passes and in his two starts ran 24 times for 120 yards.
  • Lance plays in an offense that runs the ball effectively and takes the pressure off the quarterback more than most offenses.
  • Two significant changes to the interior offensive line could become a negative factor

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Fields was supposed to be given time to learn before replacing Andy Dalton. Dalton was injured in Week 2 and Fields was thrown into the fire. He showed incredible skill throwing on the run but had far too many disastrous throws that often negated his positives.

  • In his first three starts, he threw 57 passes, completed 29 with one touchdown. In his last two starts, he threw 72 passes, completed 44 with three TDs.
  • He averaged almost six yards per rushing attempt and posted 103 rushing yards against San Francisco and 74 against Green Bay.
  • Gets a revamped receiver corps, including Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Tajae Sharpe and Dante Pettis to go with Darnell Mooney. This group will learn and grow together under a first-year head coach (Matt Eberflus) as well as a rookie offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy (modified West Coast).
  • He has no competition … unless you consider journeyman Trevor Siemian competition.
  • He plays in what many consider the weakest top-to-bottom division in the NFC.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

Jones was the fourth quarterback taken, but when Cam Newton was cut after the preseason, it was Jones’ team. A year into the Patriots system, Bill Belichick has his protege ready to take his next step.

  • Led all rookie quarterbacks with 3,801 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, a 67.6 completion percentage, and a 92.5 passer rating
  • He completed 70 percent or more of his passes in nine games.
  • He’s never been a runner, so his focus on improving his game is solely on passing.
  • He has all of his primary receivers back from last year, plus James White returning from a season-ending hip injury and DeVante Parker entering as a new weapon.
  • The Patriots coaching staff has a penchant for calling plays that keep a quarterback safe and not taking unnecessary risks. There’s no clear offensive play-caller with Josh McDaniels now the head coach in Vegas, but the system isn’t expected to change much, if at all.

Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Davis was intended to be the No. 3 guy in Houston, but with Deshaun Watson out and Tyrod Taylor hurt, he started 11 games, throwing for 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and passer rating of 88.5.

  • He has no competition with Watson and Taylor gone.
  • In his first nine games (seven starts), he had eight touchdowns and four interceptions. In his last four starts, he produced eight touchdowns vs. two interceptions.
  • Mills logged four 300-yard passing games – most among the 2021 class.
  • Houston has what could be the worst run game in the league and a leaky, which forces passing.
  • The Texans have cobbled some receiver depth with Brandin Cooks, Chris Conley, Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Moore and rookie John Metchie III.

Fantasy football outlook

There isn’t a player in this group who is likely to ascend to QB1 status (a top 12 fantasy player), but they’re all in the QB2 range with varied levels of upside.

  • Although he likely has the lowest ceiling, right now Jones has the highest floor and should have the top ranking.
  • Fields checks in at No. 2 because of the schedule he faces and lack of competition in Chicago. He will need to get the most of his weaponry, however, and is the riskiest of the top three.
  • The addition of speed receivers moves Lawrence up to No. 3 but not to the top spot yet.
  • Wilson is No. 4, because the Jets are still a year away from having an offense that clicks.
  • Lance slips in at No. 5 because, like Herbert and Burrow, comes to a team with offensive weapons, but needs Jimmy G gone to solidify his value.
  • Davis (again) is No. 6, but by season’s end he may be the most impressive (again).

It wouldn’t be a total surprise if Lance finishes as the No. 1 of this group, nor would it be a shocker if Lawrence ended up there, either. Both need a few breaks to go their respective ways before we’re comfortable making such a prediction. We’ll keep tabs on these situations as training camp provides more clarity on some of the unsettled scenarios.

Fantasy football team previews: AFC South

Plenty of turnover in the division will make things interesting in fantasy.

The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.

The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.

AFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

NFC divisional previews

East | North | South | West

Fantasy Football Market Report: Week 18

Trending in the right and wrong directions to close out the 2021 season.

The 2021 season has been one of the most frustrating in the history of fantasy football. COVID-19 had an impact last season in terms of forcing games to be shifted from one week to another and messing with lineups, but the NFL made it clear prior to the start of this season that, while there could be flexibility within a week to switch games (Tuesday Night Football was a thing again this year), if you had an outbreak, it would be on the individual organizations to play. This time around, the show must go on.

The balance of power shifted completely as outbreaks hit teams. Quarterbacks who had never started before made starts. Entire position rooms went down – it’s hard to win you start your third left tackle or fifth defensive end or cornerback.

Hopefully, by the beginning of the 2022 season, this global nightmare will finally be behind us, but a lot of fantasy owners have seen their seasons come to an abrupt end due to COVID. For those who weren’t able to dodge the loss of key players at key time, just know you weren’t alone.

Here is the Week 18 Fantasy Market Report:

Fantasy Football Risers

RB Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers

Mitchell isn’t a surprise riser – he’s posted five 100-yard rushing games – but in his last four games has become a workhorse like no other back in the league. In those four games, he has 97 carries for 399 yards and has scored three touchdowns. If the 49ers get into the playoffs, which is a distinct possibility, if they’re able to control the ground game like they have with Mitchell, the 49ers will be a hard out in the postseason.

TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

There is always discussion about who will fill out the Tight End Mount Rushmore along with Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller – the accepted Big 3. Andrews has always been in consideration to be the fourth guy, but he has really stepped it up, especially in the last month. He has 99 catches for 1,276 yards and nine touchdowns, including five 100-yard games, but in the last month he may have cemented his spot. In his last four games, he has caught 35 passes for 465 yards and three touchdowns – planting his Mount Rushmore flag for next season.

WR Cyril Grayson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A guy who didn’t play college football, he only has 10 receptions, but has gained 212 yards, including a 62-yard catch and touchdown receptions of 33 and 50 yards. With Chris Godwin out due to injury and Antonio Brown gone altogether, somebody has to step up, and Grayson may well be that speed option by default. Tom Brady has a history of turning receivers into fantasy darlings, and Grayson could be the next in a long line of them.

RB Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Ekeler is a guy who is in fantasy lineups almost every week because he’s a poor man’s Alvin Kamara – or at least he was. He has just one 100-yard rushing game and hasn’t hit 70 receiving yards in a game, but it’s the body of work that matters here. He has scored 18 touchdowns (11 rushing, seven receiving), has a touchdown in each of his last six games and, over that six-game span, he has scored nine TDs. If you had Ekeler and didn’t win a fantasy championship, it wasn’t his fault. He gave you what you needed to be successful.

WR Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

Cooks has become a very poor man’s Davante Adams. Everyone knows the ball is coming his way, but he didn’t have Aaron Rodgers throwing it to him. He has 130 targets (next highest on the Texans is 53). He has 87 receptions (next highest is 30). He has 1,011 yards (next highest is 379). He has six TD receptions (next highest is three). When most would give up on him, over his last three games, he has 22 receptions for 269 yards and three touchdowns – stepping up for those who showed faith.

[lawrence-related id=463473]

Fantasy Football Fallers

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

His fantasy contribution as a rusher is negligible. What you get from him is passing yards and garbage-time touchdowns. That hasn’t happened this year, and it has gotten worse as time has gone by. The Falcons didn’t get in the QB run at the start of the draft and were willing to ride it out with Ryan – known for 300-yard games is losses. In his last eight games, he not only doesn’t have a single 300-yard passing game, Ryan has been under 200 in five of them, hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown in any game, and has no touchdown passes in four contests. Those are the kind of stat lines you get from COVID replacements, not a guy who is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate.

RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

He has been on this list before, but it has been because the expectations of a player of Elliott’s stature are pronounced. Unlike other running back disappointments, he has played in every game and never got benched in fantasy lineups. Scoring 12 touchdowns is great, but it has come with a price for a top-five pick. He has caught 46 passes, but they have gone for just 284 yards. He has 25 or fewer receiving yards in 13 games. What makes it an issue is that, in his last 10 games, his high for rushing yards is 52. Still in the heavy-lifting portion of his contract, this hasn’t been acceptable for some time. His stock for next year has a floor for the first time.

QB Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts

Fantasy football doesn’t care if you win or lose. Guys like Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford have become fantasy gods by having a brutal defense that provides fluffed numbers late in games (the Roethlisberger Effect). Wentz has a reputation for being capable of posting solid numbers. In his first nine games, he threw two or more touchdowns in seven of them and found his way into a lot of fantasy lineups. In his last seven games, he has one or no TDs and has thrown for 180 or fewer yards in five of them. Those who bought in during the first half of the season have been forced to rethink their position. While his team has been successful, he has stunk out loud from the fantasy perspective.

WR D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

When the season started, it seemed like a lot of the same with Moore. Through his first four games, Moore caught 30 passes for 398 yards and three touchdowns. That was when things were good. In 12 games, he has caught 56 passes for 672 yards and one touchdown. As bad as things have been, even those averages are above his last three games – 14 catches for 132 yards and no touchdowns. Moore was brought onto fantasy rosters with the knowledge that he was going to have issues at quarterback. But, he has had that before and thrived. This time around? Not so much.

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence came in with the can’t-miss franchise tag of a “can’t miss” prospect – the best since Andrew Luck, many postulated. In his first game, he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns and the expectations suddenly went off the hook. In the 15 games since, he has thrown just seven touchdowns (with 14 interceptions) and has thrown for fewer than 230 yards in 11 of them. In his last 11 games, he has accounted for just four touchdowns. It’s not his fault that the Jaguars are extremely limited talent-wise, but four touchdowns in 11 games is something you expect from a marginal tight end, not the No. 1 overall pick.

The best fantasy football gamble of Week 10

Win, lose or draw, this rookie has a bright outlook in Week 10.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 10

Tracking my predictions: 3-6-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

It wasn’t pretty, but last week’s recommendation of Jordan Love met the threshold by being 80.1 percent accurate. I projected 272 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, two TDs and an interception. He finished 258-1-1 with 20 yards on the ground, but every moment felt like a struggle.

This week, I’ve decided to stick with the quarterback position and roll the dice on a rookie who has not thrown for more than one TD pass since the season opener. He scored 5.1 fantasy points last week … it doesn’t get much riskier than that!

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Fresh off a stunning 9-6 win over the Buffalo Bills, the Jaguars’ prized quarterback began his career with three touchdown strikes and 332 yards in a losing bid against the Houston Texans. Since, he has two games without a TD throw, including last week. Lawrence completed five games sandwiched in between with fewer than 240 yards and no more than a score. The only moderate improvement along the way was 273 yards, one TD, an interception and a rushing score against the Tennessee Titans in Week 5.

Jacksonville may have to start backup running back Carlos Hyde again, but James Robinson has a chance to play through his heel injury if it isn’t too painful. The Jaguars have an awful matchup on the ground vs. the Colts this week, which will direct attention toward capable tight end Dan Arnold and the short-area passing game to help act as an extension of the ground game. Lawrence will need to dink and dunk his way down the field more often than not as the Jaguars have no true vertical threat.

[lawrence-related id=461966]

WRs Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and Jamal Agnew aren’t world-beaters, but we’ve seen enough from them to suggest they are capable of doing enough damage against Indy’s laughably bad defense of the position to elevate Lawrence’s play. Twelve receivers have scored at least 10 PPR points against Indy in 2021, including the likes of such “stars” as Keelan Cole, Elijah Moore and DeVante Parker.

Indianapolis is likely to hang some points on the Jaguars, causing Jacksonville into a pass-heavy script. The New York Jets’ second- and third-string quarterbacks were able to obliterate this pass D last week as a ragtag group of wideouts had their way on Thursday Night Football. This defense has had the misfortune of facing some of the best quarterbacks in the league, which inflates the figures a bit, but it’s impossible to ignore what we witnessed as the Jets’ backups combined for 38.5 fantasy points.

Over the course of the year, the Colts have given up the second-most fantasy points per game (26.0) to the position. Since Week 4, this figure increased to 27.2, and the matchup is 25.4 percent better than the league average in that time.

So, what’s a reasonable expectation for a quarterback who has no more than 22.7 fantasy points in any single game this year? It all comes down to game script. This could go off the rails if the Jaguars play defense like we saw a week ago, but a season’s worth of games argues it is improbable.

The best-case scenario for Lawrence is Indy runs roughshod over them in the first half and the rookie has to throw 40-plus times. He has done that three times in eight outings, and a pair of them resulted in his two best fantasy showings. Considering he has scored twice on the ground in the last five games, there’s also a hint of added upside for a TD, especially if Robinson is out or has limitations.

My projection: 286 passing yards, 22 rushing yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT (23.5 fantasy points)

2021 NFL Draft: Day 1 fantasy football recap

Sorting through all of the newest additions to the 2021 fantasy football draft pool.

After an unconventional selection experience last year, the 2021 NFL Draft returns to a sense of normalcy.

Fantasy football draft season may not be close to hitting its crescendo, but hardcore gamers have been selecting players prior to the conclusion of bowl season.

The real thing is finally upon us! Follow along for real-time analysis the NFL draft’s opening round’s impact on fantasy football plans for 2021.

Round 1

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

1) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: The worst-kept draft secret in recent memory, Lawrence is tasked with turning around a Jacksonville franchise that was one win away from a Super Bowl appearance just a few seasons ago, prior to as precipitous of a fall from grace.

He is as “pro ready” as we’ve seen in recent years, and Jacksonville has put enough talent around Lawrence to expect immediate contributions. The receiving corps boasts DJ Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr., plus a competent rushing attack behind a respectable offensive line. A shaky defensive unit won’t hurt Lawrence’s counting stats, either.

Expect Lawrence to hit the ground at least jogging, but a full-on sprint is likely before season’s end. He is by far the best rookie quarterback in 2021 fantasy action, and there’s little doubt Lawrence will become a lineup fixture for years to come. Think midrange QB2 in ’21 with potential to be the top fake passer in as little as a season or two.

Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

2) QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets: While the Jets will immediately start Wilson, the talent around the gunslinger is suspect. Wideouts Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims bring three levels of attack points within the route tree, but few will argue this group is any better than average until we see more from the outside guys. Keelan Cole comes off a fine year in Jacksonville and offers slot depth behind the oft-injured Crowder.

The line still needs to show it is ready to consistently offer reliable protection, and there’s currently no rushing game to speak of behind it. Granted, this should be addressed early in the draft, but it makes for two rookie starters in key roles that are thoroughly dependent upon each other’s successes. Not ideal.

Wilson has oodles of talent, moxie, and upside for fantasy football purposes. It may not all come together in 2021 with a first-time head coach and a rookie offensive coordinator, especially with this system expected to be a replica of the notoriously complicated Kyle Shanahan design.

Wilson is a matchup-based reserve for the short term and has the tools to develop into a top-flight fantasy passer within the first two or three years of his career. But it comes with notable risk, so he may not be suitable for gamers unwilling to take even a modest leap of faith.

2021 NFL Draft: Day 1 fantasy football recap

Sorting through all of the newest additions to the 2021 fantasy football draft pool.

After an unconventional selection experience last year, the 2021 NFL Draft returns to a sense of normalcy.

Fantasy football draft season may not be close to hitting its crescendo, but hardcore gamers have been selecting players prior to the conclusion of bowl season.

The real thing is finally upon us! Follow along for real-time analysis the NFL draft’s opening round’s impact on fantasy football plans for 2021.

Round 1

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

1) QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: The worst-kept draft secret in recent memory, Lawrence is tasked with turning around a Jacksonville franchise that was one win away from a Super Bowl appearance just a few seasons ago, prior to as precipitous of a fall from grace.

He is as “pro ready” as we’ve seen in recent years, and Jacksonville has put enough talent around Lawrence to expect immediate contributions. The receiving corps boasts DJ Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr., plus a competent rushing attack behind a respectable offensive line. A shaky defensive unit won’t hurt Lawrence’s counting stats, either.

Expect Lawrence to hit the ground at least jogging, but a full-on sprint is likely before season’s end. He is by far the best rookie quarterback in 2021 fantasy action, and there’s little doubt Lawrence will become a lineup fixture for years to come. Think midrange QB2 in ’21 with potential to be the top fake passer in as little as a season or two.

Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

2) QB Zach Wilson, New York Jets: While the Jets will immediately start Wilson, the talent around the gunslinger is suspect. Wideouts Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims bring three levels of attack points within the route tree, but few will argue this group is any better than average until we see more from the outside guys. Keelan Cole comes off a fine year in Jacksonville and offers slot depth behind the oft-injured Crowder.

The line still needs to show it is ready to consistently offer reliable protection, and there’s currently no rushing game to speak of behind it. Granted, this should be addressed early in the draft, but it makes for two rookie starters in key roles that are thoroughly dependent upon each other’s successes. Not ideal.

Wilson has oodles of talent, moxie, and upside for fantasy football purposes. It may not all come together in 2021 with a first-time head coach and a rookie offensive coordinator, especially with this system expected to be a replica of the notoriously complicated Kyle Shanahan design.

Wilson is a matchup-based reserve for the short term and has the tools to develop into a top-flight fantasy passer within the first two or three years of his career. But it comes with notable risk, so he may not be suitable for gamers unwilling to take even a modest leap of faith.

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

3) QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: Lance did not play in 2020, but he owns a 17-0 record at North Dakota State. More importantly, he fits the San Francisco offensive system extremely well, due to mobility and the requisite arm strength to sling it. He played in a pro-style system in college, and there’s a ton of RPO success on tape, too.

The 49ers run an unbelievably complex system under Kyle Shanahan, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if we don’t see Lance in 2021. Given the extensive injury history of Jimmy Garoppolo, in addition to the amount of capital spent on acquiring Lance, he’s closer to seeing the field than any other rookie quarterback entering behind an entrenched starter. There’s so much to mold and work with here that Shanahan will find creative ways to put Lance in smart situations to limit the potential for error.

Next up, keep an eye on whether Garoppolo is traded during the draft or shortly thereafter, but media reports suggest there is no immediate deal in the works. Should Lance start from Week 1, he’s a fringe starter in fantasy based on his wheels and the weapons around him. His long-range outlook is through the roof.

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

4) TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons: The Hayden Hurst experiment effectively comes to an unceremonious end with the highest selection of a tight end in NFL history. Florida’s Pitts is an absolute freak of nature and immediately upgrades the weaponry for Matt Ryan.

The Falcons need help on defense, and one could argue Ryan’s successor was a viable choice, but Pitts is far too talented for a former tight ends coach in head coach Arthur Smith to miss out on. Count on creative ways to get him involved, and he’ll be a threat at each level of the route tree.

This system will emphasize the position, and while rookie tight ends rarely are fantasy weapons, Pitts should be the exception. He has low-end TE1 appeal, and his athleticism means even a low-volume week could turn in big-time stats.

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

5) WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: The former LSU Tiger is reunited with his collegiate quarterback in Joe Burrow (knee), and fantasy gamers will enjoy the connection for years to come. However, protecting Burrow is now the top priority in this draft, and it is fortunately a deep class for this area of need.

Cincinnati has Chase entering the picture after sitting out the 2020 season (COVID opt-out). He will step in as the presumptive WR1 when looking at the entire season, but it could take some time to get things going. He will have second-year receiver Tee Higgins to rely on to help him get up to speed after finding success as a rookie in 2020, and Tyler Boyd is the elder statesman of this corps at 24.

Chase brings downfield prowess to help balance the passing game. Boyd is the intermediate and short-area guy, whereas Higgins is an asset in the red zone and as a chain-mover when tough yards are necessary. Chase has the flair to take over games and uncork a long one at any moment. Fantasy gamers should treat him as a WR3 in 2021 leagues, and his long-term valuation is as a rock-solid No. 1 weapon.

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

6) WR Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins: Just as Chase was reunited with his former quarterback from the 2019 season, Waddle will be catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa, his collegiate ‘slinger.

DeVante Parker returns as the likely No. 1 target, and he’ll be joined by former Houston Texans first-rounder Will Fuller. The oft-injured Fuller will miss Week 1 via suspension, making him a double threat for unavailability. One off-field misstep and he’ll miss serious time. One physically wrong step and he’ll find himself on the mend. His one-year deal is reflective of these conditions. Parker is no stranger to injuries, either.

Promising third-year receiver Preston Williams has struggled to keep himself off of the trainers’ table. The Dolphins have veterans Jakeem Grant and Isaiah Ford in reserve, as well as Lynn Bowden Jr. as a possible receiver-slash-running back. None of those backup guys have the game-breaking ability of Waddle. The 5-foot-9, 180-pounder is as explosive as any receiver in recent memory, and his game is so similar to that of Tyreek Hill’s that defensive coordinators will have their hands full.

In 2021 drafts, Waddle is a reserve pick. He’ll need time to get up to speed, and he’s “target buried” behind two receivers that are clearly the starters. That said, a strong offseason can put him into the starting slot role. Miami hardly utilized three-wide base sets in 2020, although the franchise didn’t have a real-life video game character on the roster. The dynasty outlook is much stronger for Waddle. He’s a player coaches scheme around and find ways to manufacture touches to go his way. While he has some room before we’ll suggest he can match Hill’s ridiculous contributions, consider that to be the potential ceiling for Waddle.