Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
Here’s who you should avoid in your fantasy football draft.
Preseason has wrapped up, and the 2022 NFL season is right around the corner, which means fantasy football draft season is in full swing.
Here’s a quick look at five players to avoid during your fantasy draft this year.
These wide receivers are going higher than they should be in fantasy football drafts this summer.
A breakout player can give your roster a boost, and sleeper prospects off the waiver wire can save your fantasy football season, but drafting a bust can sink your season before it even begins.
Here’s a look at five bust candidates at wide receiver this year that fantasy managers should consider avoiding at their current average draft positions.
Just what should we expect from the new-look Cleveland receiving corps?
Let’s begin with the elephant in the room: Nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen with new Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson in terms of discipline. There are rumors that the league wants a “significant” suspension, perhaps the entirety of the 2022 season, amid the two dozen civil suits filed against Watson (20 of which were recently settled). Again, though, that’s a rumor, and even once a suspension is handed down there could still be an appellate process to navigate. It’s a mess.
Making things even messier is the team has alienated former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield to the point that he’s unlikely to ever suit up for the Browns again. In that scenario, a Watson suspension would lead to journeyman Jacoby Brissett getting the nod. Brissett is a prototypical game manager, and his insertion into the lineup would dampen the outlook for Cleveland’s passing attack.
The lone silver lining is it sounds as though the NFL would like to have the Watson situation resolved in its entirety before camp opens July 27, so hopefully we’ll get clarity soon.
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Disciplinary uncertainty creates more questions than answers.
One of the ongoing questions heading into the “slow period” of the NFL – between OTAs and the start of training camps in late July – is the ongoing saga of Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has made headlines off the field for the last 14 months.
Watson sat out the entire 2021 season, which was supposed to be the first year of four-year, $160 million extension he signed with the Houston Texans. An avalanche of civil lawsuits brought against him – most by massage therapists – claiming sexual assault or misconduct. A 23rd woman joined the lawsuit against Watson at the end of May, and No. 24 is reportedly expected to file come Monday.
However, when two grand juries failed to bring back a criminal indictment, the Texans saw an opportunity to trade their besieged signal-caller, and the Browns jumped at the opportunity to acquire a franchise quarterback better than Baker Mayfield.
Houston landed three first-round picks, a third-rounder in 2023, and a fourth-rounder in 2024 in exchange for Watson. If that investment by the Browns wasn’t enough, the team immediately announced that it tore up Watson’s contract with the Texans and replaced it with a five-year, $230 million deal with every dollar guaranteed.
Both sides of this strange, unsettling saga are unprecedented. On the football side of things, fully guaranteeing contracts has rarely been something NFL franchise do willingly. Nobody has ever committed this much in terms of guaranteed money – Watson’s guarantee was $80 million more than the previous high (Buffalo QB Josh Allen). It’s a field-tilter for quarterback salaries and guarantees that could set a standard many owners will look to avoid.
The other precedent-setting issue facing the NFL is the length of Watson’s anticipated suspension. Despite sitting out all of last season, Watson not subject to league discipline. Comparisons have been made to a 2010 suspension of Ben Roethlisberger, accused of sexually assaulting a 20-year-old Georgia college student at a nightclub. What made his six-game suspension (reduced to four games after Roethlisberger complied with numerous league-imposed stipulations) is that there were no criminal charges filed against him. Prior to that, the league waited until the legal process was completed before handing out its own punishment. Since Roethlisberger’s case, the NFL has suspended numerous players without criminal charges being filed.
What makes this case new to the NFL is Watson having been accused by 24 different women who make the same basic claim – just to varying degrees of misconduct. The NFL’s enforcement arm has a difficult decision to make after its own independent investigation. The league is still struggling with accusations of collusion against Colin Kaepernick and the offseason revelations in a lawsuit brought by Brian Flores.
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What sort of punishment do claims made by 24 different women warrant? Major League Baseball, typically the last pro sport to be proactive, recently doubled the established suspension limit of major sports by banning Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer for more than two years for allegations of sexual impropriety that also didn’t result in criminal charges.
The Browns have been taken off a lot of betting websites for wagers on the odds for Cleveland to win the AFC North, the AFC, and the Super Bowl, because everyone is waiting for the NFL to weigh on whether Watson will be suspended. It is expected that he will be, but the duration is anyone’s guess.
The suspension likely won’t be less than four games. Is six a possibility? Eight? Another full season?
All of those options are likely on the table. The uncertainty may be the reason the Browns didn’t accept a low-ball trade offer for Mayfield on draft weekend. Mayfield clearly isn’t Cleveland’s first choice – that was made painfully obvious – but he is the guy who has been the starter in Cleveland the last three years. Perhaps the fear of getting the worst-case scenario suspension for Watson is why Mayfield is still under contract with the Browns. Cleveland added veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett in free agency a day after the Watson trade news broke, likely believing Mayfield wouldn’t be this difficult to trade away.
Watson’s fantasy football value for 2022 will be determined once the NFL weighs in on the matter and hands down its punishment.
Whatever the NFL decides, it is certain to face criticism for not handing down a stiff enough punishment given the gravity and sheer volume of the allegations. Until the league office delivers its judgment, the fate of the 2022 Browns will continue to remain in limbo.
Should Watson even be on your radar if you’re forced to draft prior to whenever that info is known? It depends upon a number of factors, such as scoring rules, league size, draft tendencies, and more, but the easiest way to frame it is as follows: Gamble on Watson only after about Round 11, and only if you have an established starter in case he winds up missing serious time. He has gone, on average, anywhere from Round 9 to 14 in drafts we’ve been apart of so far.
We’ll definitely provide more clarity upon the league’s ruling. What we know for sure is Watson enters a run-heavy offense with a so-so cast of aerial targets. He has excelled with worse at receiver, but there’s arguably more downside than potential for a strong season, regardless of how much time he may miss.
A team-by-team fantasy football outlook from the AFC North.
The 2022 fantasy football draft season is starting to heat up now that we’ve gone through the height of free agency and all of the chosen rookies have been assigned to their professional home cities.
The landscape has changed a great deal for many franchises after a whirlwind offseason, and our divisional preview series will help you stay on top of all of the changes to date.
At long last, we know where the embattled quarterback will play.
The Cleveland Browns have won the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. At long last, we know where the embattled quarterback will play. Whether or not the NFL allows him to play all 17 games the final piece to this saga of a puzzle.
Browns and Texans still are finalizing official trade compensation for Deshaun Watson, but it is expected to include three first-round picks, a third-round pick and potentially a fifth-round pick, league sources tell ESPN.
Five picks for Watson.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 18, 2022
ESPN’s Adam Schefter also reports the Browns will pay him a fully guaranteed $230 million over five years. That’s commitment!
We last saw Watson take a snap in Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season when he led the NFL in passing yardage with 4,823 and finished fourth in fantasy points (435.6, or 27.2/game) while playing with limited talent at the skill positions. The Browns have some intriguing pieces, but it’s unfair to say we’re looking at a major upgrade in receiving options. It’s definitely an improvement, but just how much is up for debate. Either way, Watson has demonstrated the ability fewer quarterbacks bring to the table: Making everyone around him better.
Cleveland acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from Dallas and sent veteran slot receiver Jarvis Landry packing, but the latter was more contractual than anything. Reports said at the time the Browns could opt to re-sign him. Perhaps this is the impetus to make it happen. Cooper, if healthy, has borderline WR1 potential in PPR scoring, although history points to him being a much safer No. 2 in fantasy.
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With Cooper the team’s presumed WR1 of the crop, Cleveland has an inconsistently dangerous Donovan Peoples-Jones as the next most accomplished wideout, and that’s not saying much. He has 48 career catches and five total scores over his first two seasons. But he brings size and downfield skills to the offense. There’s serious breakout potential now that Watson is under center in this rather fundamental West Coast offense.
The Browns added slot receiver Jakeem Grant in free agency, and the 5-foot-6 gadget player has yet to put it all together to suggest he’s on the verge of something useful in fantasy over 18 weeks. Without trying to pour salt into a wound, there’s no denying having Watson at quarterback will be an upgrade from Baker Mayfield — and everyone else Grant has had as his signal-caller.
Watson has former first-round pick David Njoku as the primary tight end, with third-year man Harrison Bryant also in the mix. Both get a boost, but target cannibalization could be a weekly frustration.
In the backfield, Watson has a dynamic one-two punch in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, with the latter being an excellent receiving outlet. This duo brings balance to the offense and allows for a heavy dose of play-action passing, which is a staple in the Kevin Stefanski system.
An overall stout offensive line only sweetens the deal for fantasy purposes. Cleveland still may not be done yet addressing the position in free agency, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the Browns add depth in the upcoming draft with one of it’s few remaining selections.
Watson’s biggest enemy right now will be how hard the NFL comes down on him for off-the-field issues that won’t result in criminal proceedings but still have been enough of a black eye on the NFL’s image that it’s unlikely Roger Goodell and Co. can afford to let Watson escape some level of punishment. It’s really anyone’s guess as to how many games he will be docked, so until that side of things is resolved, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Watson is a midtier QB1 if he plays at least 14 or 15 games, but if a suspension cuts his season to, say, eight or nine contests, he’ll be a much tougher quarterback to draft in fantasy football leagues. Stay tuned!
Risers and fallers of the late-stage fantasy football season
At the start of the 2021 season, I made the bold prediction that I thought all four teams in the NFC West had the potential to finish the season with winning records, which is why I was bullish on drafting fantasy players from the division. Barring the Seattle Seahawks running the table, that isn’t going to happen, but another division has stepped up to live out the big talk I had for the NFC West.
The AFC North has found itself in a situation where all four teams control their own destiny to win the division and make the playoffs in the final three games. All four teams have looked dominant at times and awful at others, but their fantasy players are all filling up playoff lineups. When you’re fighting for a fantasy championship you need to have all your players in games that mean something. It would appear every game the teams from the AFC North play from here on through are going to have playoff implications, which is all fantasy owners can ask for with titles on the line.
Here is the Week 16 Fantasy Football Market Report:
When the Titans lost Derrick Henry, the organization’s first idea was to dust off Adrian Peterson. After three weeks, they gave up on that theory and went to Plan B. Foreman was signed in the days after Henry went down and, over the last three games, he has looked a little like the franchise – and played like him as well. In those three games, he has rushed 54 times for 264 yards and a touchdown – topping 100 yards in two of them and scoring a TD in the other. He won’t make fantasy owners forget Henry, but he likely won’t be a journeyman after this season.
The Falcons have been an offense in transition. Future Hall of Famer Julio Jones was allowed to leave. Calvin Ridley left the team for personal issues. All-World Kyle Pitts has been up and down. The most consistent player over the last month has been Gage. He has help keep the Falcons’ dim playoff hopes alive over the last four games, catching 29 passes for 347 yards and two touchdowns. He has become a go-to flex option and still is affordable in daily play as he makes his case moving forward on a Falcons team in transition.
You don’t look to Detroit for fantasy players, especially in the playoffs, but Reynolds is making the most of his opportunity. The Lions are his fourth team in three years, and he has been little more than a practice squad live body. But with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams both down, he has been thrust into the mix against a pair of good defenses (Denver and Arizona). He has responded with 37 carries for 195 yards. Like Foreman and Gage, Reynolds is making his statement to his current team and the rest of the league that he has the skills to be a factor in the NFL.
The rookie QB hasn’t been flashy and doesn’t bring a lot in the run game, but he has started putting together some solid fantasy numbers. In huge games with playoff implications against the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts, he has thrown for seven touchdowns and, in the last two of those games, he has 310 and 299 passing yards. They aren’t the kind of numbers that have him in fantasy playoff lineups, but his stock is on the rise heading into 2022.
The time share between Ezekiel Elliott and Pollard is getting less all the time. Pollard has 119 carries to Zeke’s 201, but Pollard’s rushing average (5.7 yards) is 1.4 more than Elliott’s (4.3), and he had a better rushing average in eight of the last nine games both have played. Anyone who has Elliott isn’t going to bench him, but the Cowboys are consistently getting more yardage out of Pollard. As games increase in importance, he may be seeing even time as the Cowboys season gets more intense and impactful with each coming week.
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Few players run as hot and cold as Cooper. Over the last seven games, he has played in five of them and, in those games, he has just 15 catches for 188 yards and one touchdown. An average of three catches for 37 yards over five games (technically seven) isn’t what fantasy owners bought into, and there has to be legitimate concern about continuing to play him with a fantasy season on the line.
With all the weapons Burrow has, huge numbers are expected every week. Over his last six games, he has accounted for just eight touchdowns (six passing, two rushing) and has thrown for 190 yards or less in three of his last five games. Considering that he never had fewer than two touchdowns in his first eight games and 20 TD passes in those contests, his drop-off has been pronounced. He isn’t the must-start player he was the first half of the season.
Through his first five games of the season, Williams was averaging 95 yards and scored six touchdowns, making him one of the breakthrough players of the early season. However, in his last nine games, he has more than 61 receiving yards just twice, less than 50 yards in five of them, and has scored just one touchdown. The Chargers offense has been lighting things up, but Williams hasn’t been a part of it enough to warrant staying in fantasy lineups.
It’s been the tale of two seasons for Gesicki. He is among a growing number of fantasy tight ends those of whom without one of the Big 3 are looking to step up and make a statement to be a TE that plays every week. Over his first seven games, Gesicki had three games with 85 or more receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. Over his last seven games, he has fallen flat, registering 54 or fewer receiving yards in every game and scoring no touchdowns. Considering Miami has gone a six-game winning streak in that stretch, it has become apparent that the Dolphins don’t need Gesicki to come up big for them to win.
The fact Golladay hasn’t scored a touchdown for the Giants after signing a big free-agent contract is bad enough, but his production has completely flat-lined. In his first four games, he was productive, catching 17 passes for 282 yards. In his last seven games, he has caught just 14 passes for 195 yards and no TDs – an average of just two catches for 28 yards a game, which not only will get you benched on a fantasy team, it will get you waived.
