Tag: Trey Lance fantasy football

Diving into the San Francisco QB room for fantasy football answers

Here’s what to expect from a crowded quarterbacks room in the Bay Area.

Leading up to the 2022 campaign, the San Francisco 49ers believed they had a long-term plan in place. They were going to jettison quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (now with the Las Vegas Raiders) and turn the offense over to QB Trey Lance, drafted third overall in 2021. It didn’t work out that way. The 49ers found no market for an injured Garoppolo, and Lance would suffer a second-ending broken ankle in Week 2. Jimmy G took over before suffering a broken foot that ended his 2022 as well and paved the way for rookie Brock Purdy, who won every outing he started until the NFC Championship Game.

It was in the NFCCG when Purdy suffered an elbow injury that required surgery in March, which doubtless played a role in the team signing free-agent QB Sam Darnold (Carolina Panthers). Darnold, himself a former No. 3 overall pick, assumes the veteran mantle opened by the departure of Garoppolo. Now the question becomes where things stand with San Francisco’s quarterback situation.

Fantasy Football: 7 must-have players in 2022

These players should be targets in all of your fantasy football drafts this year.

Because there’s so much talent at the top of fantasy football draft boards, I don’t sweat about my first-round pick.

Even if I’m at the bottom of the round and all of the workhorse running backs have been picked, I know there’s going to be a star wide receiver still available (don’t sleep on Stefon Diggs behind Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase).

After the first round or two, I do begin to game plan specific picks who could represent fantastic value during the season.

Here’s a quick look at seven players I try to target in every fantasy football draft leading up to the 2022 NFL season for you last-minute types.

Fantasy Football: 5 sleeper quarterbacks for 2022 season

These sleeper quarterbacks could add great value to your roster in fantasy football.

It’s going to be hard to land Josh Allen, the assumed QB1, in fantasy football this year because his stock is off the charts.

If you’re OK with passing on Allen — and the rest of the consensus top-12 QBs — in your fantasy draft, it’s still possible to find good QB value later in the draft with sleeper picks at the position.

Here’s a quick look at five sleeper quarterbacks to consider for the 2022 NFL season.

Fantasy football: 5 quarterback breakout candidates for 2022

Trey Lance is going to win leagues this season.

Everyone wants to draft Josh Allen in fantasy football this year, but are you willing to spend a third or even a second-round pick to get him?

If not, there are many other productive options at quarterback this season, with QBs 2-10 all capable of posting big numbers this fall.

If you decide to wait until really late to draft a QB (or if you play in a two-QB league), consider these five QB breakout candidates who have the potential to outperform their average draft positions this season.

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Is Trey Lance the next big thing in fantasy football?

Are we on the verge of witnessing a fantasy explosion in the Bay Area?

While he’s yet to do much at the NFL level, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance has emerged as one of the more interesting Rorschach tests for fantasy owners heading into 2022. Some look at the second-year signal caller and see the athleticism and arm strength to become the next great dual threat at the position. Others see an unproven commodity on a team built to win now and an offense that has spent years marginalizing the position, largely with positive results.

Both viewpoints have merit, though one flaw in the latter is that the team wouldn’t have invested so heavily in acquiring Lance only to treat him like Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0. Still, what is true is that the Niners have the knowledge that they can win without top-shelf play from their quarterback in the back of their minds, so if Lance is having a tough day or playing an unusually stingy defense where the preference would be that he prioritize making the safe play, the team can dial back what they ask.

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One thing that Lance should be able to lean on regardless of circumstance is athleticism, which will allow him to extend plays on passing downs and make him a dangerous weapon on read options and designed runs. Lance ran for 120 yards combined in his two starts last year — that would project out to 1,020 over a full season. While that’s a stretch, his running ability should keep his floor at a decent level (think Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts last year).

Also helping Lance is the playmaking ability of wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who can take a three-yard out and turn it into an 75-yard touchdown, so it’s not as though Lance will need to thread the needle and make amazing throws to rack up numbers. To that end, accuracy is a possible issue. He completed 57.7 percent of his passes as a rookie, albeit in a limited sample size, and improvement in that area would go a long way as he already throws an effective deep ball.

Fantasy football outlook

If you want to talk about a comp for Lance, once again it makes sense to circle back to Hurts, who was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in most scoring systems despite passing for just 3,144 yards and 16 TDs, both of which are numbers one would expect Lance to surpass this season. Whether he’ll rush for 10 scores and 784 yards, as Hurts did, is unclear, but he’s capable.

For now, that fringe top-10 slot feels like the ceiling for Lance, and given his lack of experience it’d be fair to expect the path to such a finish to be full of good weeks and bad. As for the floor, it’s hard to envision him finishing outside the top 20 given his athleticism, head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes, and the talent around him.

He could be drafted as a QB1 as long as you pair him with a competent backup. However, Lance makes for an ideal backup, although that window is closing with an ADP on the rise (9:06, QB13). Proven quarterbacks to pair him with include the likes of Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford — each has limitations or some risk, which ups Lance’s potential worth to your team as well as gives you a safety net to a midround QB investment.

Fantasy football spotlight: WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

How will the third-year receiver fare in a Trey Lance-led offense?

Few teams have as many fantasy football questions surrounding their offenses as the San Francisco 49ers. With the plan to move away from starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and go with the unproven, small-college talent in Trey Lance, the 49ers are anticipated to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. So how does that impact third-year wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk?

In two seasons, Aiyuk has teased at greatness but has yet to take the next step in terms of consistency. In 12 games as a rookie in 2020, Aiyuk caught 60 passes for 748 yards and five touchdowns. In what may have been a precursor of things to come for Deebo Samuel and the offensive play calling, Aiyuk rushed six times for 77 yards and two touchdowns.

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His production didn’t increase in 2021, but Aiyuk’s impact plays did. In 17 games, he caught 56 passes for 826 yards and five touchdowns. While he caught fewer passes, his 14.8-yard reception average was 2.3 yards more per catch, he saw his yards per target (9.8 yards) increase by two yards per target from his rookie season, catching 67 percent of passes thrown his way.

When looking at Aiyuk’s statistics, the biggest question was how his role changed when Samuel morphed into a hybrid wide receiver/running back. After being in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse during training camp last year, his role in the offense was minimal – in the first six games, he caught just nine passes for 96 yards and one touchdown. In his final 11 games, he caught 47 passes for 730 yards and four touchdowns, ranking 16th among wide receivers in PPR scoring formats and 13th in non-PPR formats in that span. That success has carried over into the start of his third season.

Fantasy football outlook

Aiyuk was the talk of 49ers training camp, catching everything in sight and winning almost every one-on-one battle he faced. While he isn’t the primary topic of conversation in San Francisco at the moment, Aiyuk is a player with a high ceiling for being a midround fantasy pick.

Most analysts see Aiyuk as a WR4 for understandable reasons. The 49ers have an unproven quarterback, an offense that is most successful when it’s running the ball and two players – Samuel and tight end George Kittle – who have received the lion’s share of passing targets. That checks a lot of negative boxes, but it shouldn’t override Aiyuk’s talent.

If the plan is to continue using Samuel as a dual-threat receiver and runner, it’s going to keep Aiyuk on the outside with the potential for more big downfield plays. He is still the clear No. 3 target behind Samuel and Kittle, but his ability to make plays deep downfield make him more of a midrange to low-end WR3 than a WR4. His role in the offense increased as the 2021 season went on and the 49ers started stringing together wins, and that should be the launch point for 2022 – even if there are a slew of questions about how the Lance-led offense will operate.

San Francisco’s backfield could get messy for fantasy football purposes

A committee approach could wreak havoc on fantasy football plans.

When examining the San Francisco 49ers’ ground game, one aspect deserves top billing. In five seasons under the leadership of head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers have had five different leading rushers: Carlos Hyde (2017), Matt Breida (2018), Raheem Mostert (2019), Jeff Wilson Jr. (2020), and Elijah Mitchell (2021). That’s long enough to be considered a trend, and it’s one that doesn’t seem to bode very well for Mitchell, a second-year back with durability concerns.

Mitchell sits atop the depth chart for the time being, however, where he’ll be joined by Wilson, the team’s top rusher in 2020, Trey Sermon, last year’s third-round pick who struggled through a tough rookie campaign. If that weren’t already enough competition, insert Tyrion Price-Davis, whom the 49ers invested a third-round choice on this year with the hope he could provide the type of power running Shanahan loves.

Beyond that already-crowded group is wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who became more involved in the running game last season, finishing second on the team in rushing yards (365) while averaging 6.2 yards per carry. That’s a lot of variables to consider, so let’s look at the San Francisco backfield to see how things might shake out.

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Draft one: Stefon Diggs vs. Deebo Samuel vs. Tyreek Hill

If you can pick only one, which WR are you drafting?

In most fantasy football leagues, teams are made and broken by the critical decisions early on as to what cornerstone roster pieces they have in place. A poor choice at running back or quarterback can have devastating weekly implications. Wide receiver is by far the deepest fantasy position to find talent, but having a lead dog who produces big numbers consistently is critical to long-term success.

Few wide receivers are dominant every week, but we’ve chosen three to focus on who have come pretty close – Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills, Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers, and Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins.

Here’s the case for all three:

Ranking second-year quarterbacks most likely to break out

Breaking down the fantasy football outlooks for second-year passers.

While 2022 was a noteworthy exception, a typical NFL draft is dotted with quarterbacks at the top who are given the “can’t miss” tag. In 2021, there were more than usual. The top three picks went quarterback, and two more joined in over the next 12 picks.

To the surprise of many, it wasn’t Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance or Justin Fields who made the biggest rookie splash. It was Mac Jones and Davis Mills who led the QB Class of 2021.

Given the quick ascent of 2020 rookies Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert (and, to a lesser extent, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts), the timetable for a young franchise quarterback to produce is getting shorter.

We take a deep dive on the six quarterbacks in question and their selling points to make a jump in their fantasy value in Year 2.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence was the first overall pick in 2021 and widely hailed as the best quarterback to come to the NFL since Andrew Luck. Surrounded by a brutal supporting cast and mired by a coaching disaster, he threw just 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.

  • After throwing seven interceptions in his first three games, he didn’t throw a pick in nine of the final 14.
  • He completed just 59.6 percent of his passes, but in his last three games, Lawrence completed 66 of 98 passes (67.3 percent).
  • He showed some ability as a scrambler, rushing five or more times in eight games and finishing second on the team with 334 rushing yards.
  • Jacksonville gave him more explosive weapons to work with this offseason, adding speedy wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to join Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, as well as adding TE Evan Engram.
  • The Jaguars addressed its porous offensive line, adding veteran guard Brandon Scherff and drafting center Luke Fortner (third round).

Zach Wilson, New York Jets

Wilson came to the NFL to a relatively barren cupboard of offensive playmakers. As the season progressed, he became a better game manager after taking too many risks early. He learned quickly the wide-open style at BYU doesn’t necessarily translate to the NFL.

  • After throwing 11 interceptions in his first eight games, he had none in his final five starts.
  • He showed some ability as a situational runner, scoring four rushing touchdowns in his final seven games.
  • Wilson possesses all the intangibles a quarterback needs, including accuracy, decision-making, and the ability to make plays when they break down.
  • The Jets were ravaged by WR injuries last season with free agent signee Corey Davis missing eight games and Elijah Moore missing six. If the top receivers are healthy, Wilson’s numbers will climb.
  • New York invested a first-round draft pick on Garrett Wilson, a tremendous route runner who can play inside or outside and provides another weapon.

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Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers made the bold climb to No. 3 in the 2021 draft for Lance, who made just 17 starts at North Dakota State. He’s expected to be the starter, but if Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) isn’t traded, there will be a legitimate competition on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

  • Lance is the biggest unknown among the quarterbacks at the top of the Class of 2021.
  • The best pure athlete of the group with a combination of size, arm strength and speed
  • Has the best supporting cast of any of these six QBs
  • He threw five touchdowns on just 71 passes and in his two starts ran 24 times for 120 yards.
  • Lance plays in an offense that runs the ball effectively and takes the pressure off the quarterback more than most offenses.
  • Two significant changes to the interior offensive line could become a negative factor

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Fields was supposed to be given time to learn before replacing Andy Dalton. Dalton was injured in Week 2 and Fields was thrown into the fire. He showed incredible skill throwing on the run but had far too many disastrous throws that often negated his positives.

  • In his first three starts, he threw 57 passes, completed 29 with one touchdown. In his last two starts, he threw 72 passes, completed 44 with three TDs.
  • He averaged almost six yards per rushing attempt and posted 103 rushing yards against San Francisco and 74 against Green Bay.
  • Gets a revamped receiver corps, including Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Tajae Sharpe and Dante Pettis to go with Darnell Mooney. This group will learn and grow together under a first-year head coach (Matt Eberflus) as well as a rookie offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy (modified West Coast).
  • He has no competition … unless you consider journeyman Trevor Siemian competition.
  • He plays in what many consider the weakest top-to-bottom division in the NFC.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

Jones was the fourth quarterback taken, but when Cam Newton was cut after the preseason, it was Jones’ team. A year into the Patriots system, Bill Belichick has his protege ready to take his next step.

  • Led all rookie quarterbacks with 3,801 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, a 67.6 completion percentage, and a 92.5 passer rating
  • He completed 70 percent or more of his passes in nine games.
  • He’s never been a runner, so his focus on improving his game is solely on passing.
  • He has all of his primary receivers back from last year, plus James White returning from a season-ending hip injury and DeVante Parker entering as a new weapon.
  • The Patriots coaching staff has a penchant for calling plays that keep a quarterback safe and not taking unnecessary risks. There’s no clear offensive play-caller with Josh McDaniels now the head coach in Vegas, but the system isn’t expected to change much, if at all.

Davis Mills, Houston Texans

Davis was intended to be the No. 3 guy in Houston, but with Deshaun Watson out and Tyrod Taylor hurt, he started 11 games, throwing for 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and passer rating of 88.5.

  • He has no competition with Watson and Taylor gone.
  • In his first nine games (seven starts), he had eight touchdowns and four interceptions. In his last four starts, he produced eight touchdowns vs. two interceptions.
  • Mills logged four 300-yard passing games – most among the 2021 class.
  • Houston has what could be the worst run game in the league and a leaky, which forces passing.
  • The Texans have cobbled some receiver depth with Brandin Cooks, Chris Conley, Nico Collins, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Moore and rookie John Metchie III.

Fantasy football outlook

There isn’t a player in this group who is likely to ascend to QB1 status (a top 12 fantasy player), but they’re all in the QB2 range with varied levels of upside.

  • Although he likely has the lowest ceiling, right now Jones has the highest floor and should have the top ranking.
  • Fields checks in at No. 2 because of the schedule he faces and lack of competition in Chicago. He will need to get the most of his weaponry, however, and is the riskiest of the top three.
  • The addition of speed receivers moves Lawrence up to No. 3 but not to the top spot yet.
  • Wilson is No. 4, because the Jets are still a year away from having an offense that clicks.
  • Lance slips in at No. 5 because, like Herbert and Burrow, comes to a team with offensive weapons, but needs Jimmy G gone to solidify his value.
  • Davis (again) is No. 6, but by season’s end he may be the most impressive (again).

It wouldn’t be a total surprise if Lance finishes as the No. 1 of this group, nor would it be a shocker if Lawrence ended up there, either. Both need a few breaks to go their respective ways before we’re comfortable making such a prediction. We’ll keep tabs on these situations as training camp provides more clarity on some of the unsettled scenarios.